这种放量下跌的态势，让投资者心中不禁产生疑问：这究竟是行情的终点，还是"倒车接人"的良机？ 在A股跳水过程中，美股主要股指期货均小幅上涨，亚太其他主要股市亦多数上涨，日经225指数收盘更是创下历史新高，首次站上 45000点。 深度科技研究院院长张孝荣分析认为，这次跳水背后或有三大原因。 金融权重股集体走弱，主力资金大面积撤出连累大盘； 美联储降息利好兑现后的技术性回调；市场关键点位前释放心理压力，此时主力资金从进攻转为防御，有可能是为了下一步更大规模 的进攻。 美联储降息符合市场广泛预期，美联储主席鲍威尔提出的"风险管理式降息"也指向未来连续降息的前景仍有不确定性。 三大指数早盘小幅震荡走强，上证指数一度上涨0.6%，最高触及3899.96点，创下2015年8月以来的十年新高。 主要指数集体大幅跳水，上证指数一度跌近2%，最低下探至3801点，险失3800点关口。 全市场逾4300只个股下跌，沪深京三市全天成交额却高达3.167万亿元，较前一日放量逾7600亿元。 华金证券策略分析师邓利军统计指出，2005年以来美联储有18次降息操作，降息后短期市场偏震荡，T 5、T 30、T 90内上证上涨概率 分别为3 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the social services industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The domestic tourism during the National Day holiday showed stable performance with a year-on-year increase in tourist numbers but a decrease in per capita spending [16][22] - The global and Chinese vehicle toy markets reached sizes of 967 billion and 151 billion respectively in 2023, indicating a strong market potential for this category [30][36] - The craft beer market in China is projected to grow from 428 billion in 2022 to over 2000 billion by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% [53][56] - The beauty sector on Douyin (TikTok) saw a year-on-year GMV increase of 19.69% in September, with the top 20 brands achieving a total GMV exceeding 30 billion [72] Summary by Sections Domestic Tourism - During the 2025 National Day holiday, domestic tourism reached 8.88 billion person-times, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with total tourism revenue of 809 billion, also up by 1% [16][17] - The average spending per person decreased by 0.6% to 911 yuan [16] - Cross-regional travel volume increased by 6.2% year-on-year, indicating strong long-distance travel intentions among residents [18][22] Vehicle Toys - The vehicle toy market is the second largest toy category, with a global market size of 967 billion and a Chinese market size of 151 billion in 2023 [30][36] - The market share for vehicle toys is approximately 12.5% globally and 14.4% in China [30][36] - The sales of vehicle toys in the G12 countries are expected to grow by 3% in 2024, continuing a five-year trend of positive growth [30] Craft Beer - The craft beer market in China is expected to grow significantly, with the number of craft beer outlets reaching 16,600 by mid-2025, a 28% increase from the previous year [59][65] - The market is driven by a shift towards premium experiences, with the younger generation contributing significantly to sales [53][56] - The penetration rate of craft beer in China is still below 5%, compared to 13.2% in the US, indicating substantial growth potential [55][56] Beauty Sector - The beauty category on Douyin experienced a significant increase in GMV, with the top 20 brands capturing a market share of 17.6% [72] - Domestic brands are gaining traction, with over 50% of the GMV from the top 20 brands coming from local products [72] - The price distribution in the beauty market is becoming more balanced, with a notable increase in the share of affordable products [75]

2025 年 10 月 12 日 版及 行业 相关研究 《阿里巴巴 (BABA) 点评：加大 AI 投 入，ASI 为终极目标》 2025/09/25 《AI 赋能本地生活竞争,社零保持稳健增 长——商贸零售行业周报 (9.15-9.19)》 2025/09/21 证券分析师 赵令伊 A0230518100003 zhaoly2@swsresearch.com 联系人 李秀琳 (8621)23297818× lixl2@swsresearch.com 申万宏源研究微信服务号 本期投资后示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 超长大促简化玩法， 淘宝闪购 ss双十 商贸零售行业周报 (10.6-10.10) 一周主要回顾与展望：在 2025 年 10 月 6 日至 2025 年 10 月 10 日期间，商贸零售指 数下跌 0.40%，相较于沪深 300 上涨 0.11pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 20 位。社会 服务指数下跌 1.01%，相较于沪深 300 指数下跌 0.49pct，在申万一级行业中排名第 24 位。 2025 年"双 11" 电商大促已进入启动密集期，超长周期与玩法简化成为本次特点 ...

Core Insights - The recent escalation of the US-China supply chain and tariff conflict is a continuation of trade frictions since 2018, and it is not a new negative factor for the A-share market. Historical experience shows that such shocks often create phase low points and investment opportunities [2][6][10] - Compared to the tariff shock in April this year, the current market has more favorable conditions, including investor expectations of tariff threats and stronger market resilience due to key resistance levels being surpassed [4][10] - Short-term adjustments are inevitable, but the market still shows resilience, with the potential for new highs after the shock ends. This adjustment may serve as an opportunity to optimize the investment structure [2][10] Industry and Company Analysis - The classic response strategy to the US-China conflict emphasizes self-sufficiency and domestic circulation, suggesting a focus on sectors with relatively low positions and marginal improvements, such as military industry, semiconductors, software self-sufficiency, new consumption, and non-ferrous metals [2][10] - The current market sentiment is bolstered by a stronger willingness of residents to invest, increased protective actions from important institutional investors, and accelerated trends in new industries like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, which provide long-term value during corrections [4][10] - The average guarantee ratio in the market has significantly improved from 261% in April to 287%, enhancing the market's ability to withstand downturns despite a larger scale of financing [4][9][10] - The recent market dynamics indicate that sectors such as gold, copper, cobalt, photovoltaic batteries, lithium battery equipment, wind power, semiconductors, and automotive are experiencing improvements or high levels of prosperity [4][10]

开幕式以主持人张达乘坐东部通航直升机抵达现场的独特方式拉开序幕，这一新颖亮相不仅是盐田区大 力发展低空经济、拓展文旅新业态的生动缩影，也为整场活动定下创新与活力的基调。整场开幕式 以"蔚蓝、鎏金、翠绿、暖橙"四大色彩为脉络，对应"山海聚活力、山海蕴幸福、山海觅趣处、山海迎 未来"四个层层递进的篇章，系统呈现盐田从自然本底到人文内涵，再到发展动能与未来愿景的多元叙 事。 深圳商报·读创客户端记者 何鑫 10月 11日，由深圳市文化广电旅游体育局、盐田区人民政府共同主办，盐田区文化广电旅游体育局承 办的 2025 深圳黄金海岸旅游嘉年华开幕式在大梅沙海滨公园启幕。本次活动以"山海盛颜，醉美盐 田"为主题，融合文化、旅游、体育、科技等多重元素，通过多元艺术展演与重磅信息发布，展现盐田 区"文旅+低空""文旅+婚庆""文旅+产业"等多方面成效。 四大篇章解锁盐田多维魅力 本次开幕式集中发布多项文旅新业态，致力于为游客打造全方位体验空间。作为核心升级区，小梅沙推 出以"幸福遇见自然"为理念的婚礼场地集群，首期开放7大特色场地并配套婚拍服务；潜水项目面向5至 60岁人群提供一价全包体验，让游客轻松掌握技能，与海洋生物共游 ...

Core Insights - The payment transaction volume during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday reached 41.552 billion, an increase of 9.523 billion transactions or approximately 30% compared to last year [1] - The total payment transaction amount was 13.26 trillion yuan, up by 1.86 trillion yuan or 16% year-on-year [1] Group 1: Consumer Spending Trends - Consumption in sectors such as dining, shopping, and cinema showed growth, indicating a vibrant consumer market during the holiday [2] - Cross-border payment transactions via Alipay and WeChat saw significant increases, reflecting ongoing economic interactions between China and the global market [2] - The top five countries for Chinese tourists' spending abroad were Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore, with Greece, Laos, Nepal, Portugal, and Turkey emerging as fast-growing destinations [2][3] Group 2: Payment Method Insights - WeChat Pay reported a 21% year-on-year increase in cross-border transaction volume during the first five days of the holiday [3] - The use of electric vehicles for self-driving trips increased, with WeChat Pay transactions for charging stations rising by 43% [3] - The number of transactions for fitness and beauty services also grew, with increases of 16% and 11% respectively [3]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the bond market is experiencing a mild recovery due to the central bank's continued support for liquidity, with expectations of a gradual decline in supply in the fourth quarter [2][10][12] - In the stock market, increased volatility is noted, particularly in the financial and low-volatility sectors, as profit-taking in growth sectors leads to significant market fluctuations [3][10][12] - The report suggests a balanced investment approach, focusing on mid to large-cap indices, and indicates that stable funds may enter the market to maintain stability during periods of heightened volatility [3][12][13] Group 2 - Key events include a significant increase in domestic travel during the National Day holiday, with 888 million trips taken, generating a total expenditure of 809 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase [9] - The report mentions new export control measures on certain materials, which will take effect on November 8, indicating potential impacts on related industries [9] - The report tracks important market indicators, noting that the average daily trading volume in the A-share market has rebounded to 2.603 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity post-holiday [21][22]

Core Insights - The article highlights the emerging trends in Zhejiang's tourism industry, particularly the rise of "coffee+" business models and the emphasis on emotional value to attract visitors during the 2025 National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1][2]. Tourism Trends - In 2025, Zhejiang Province saw a total of 37.6 million tourists during the National Day and Mid-Autumn holidays, marking a 7.3% year-on-year increase. Overnight visitors reached 24.2 million, up 11.4%, with total tourism revenue hitting 54.68 billion yuan, a growth of 8.8% [1]. - Innovative small-scale attractions, such as the "Sky Mirror" and nature parks, are gaining popularity, focusing on high aesthetic and emotional value to attract niche markets like families and couples [2][5]. Emotional Value and Social Media - The "Sky Mirror" at Jin Hua has become a popular social media spot, reflecting the sunset and city lights, which enhances its appeal among young visitors [3][5]. - The park's management emphasizes the importance of emotional value and social currency, noting that visitors are more likely to share their experiences on social media, thus increasing the attraction's visibility [6]. Visitor Experience Enhancements - The "Sky Mirror" park implemented several initiatives during the holidays, including a "cloud dining" experience and interactive installations, which significantly boosted daily revenue from approximately 3,000 yuan to 15,000 yuan during peak days [5][6]. - Lulupark, another attraction, reported around 9,000 visitors during the National Day period, with new animal exhibits and family-friendly activities enhancing the overall visitor experience [7][8]. Coffee Culture and Nightlife - In Hengdian, the largest film shooting base globally, around 50-80 specialty coffee shops have emerged, creating a vibrant cultural community through the "coffee+" model [9]. - The Bay Art Life Community has expanded its offerings to include creative shops and restaurants, hosting events like outdoor movie screenings and eco-friendly markets during the holidays, which resonated well with young consumers [9][10]. - Some coffee shops operate 24 hours to cater to the flexible schedules of film crews, with a significant portion of evening traffic, indicating a shift towards high-quality nighttime consumption [10].

Core Insights - During the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, Luzhou emerged as a surprising tourism destination, with a 45% increase in travel orders compared to last year [1] - From October 1 to 8, Luzhou's major commercial areas attracted 9.35 million visitors, generating a consumption of 649 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.6% [1] - The surge in tourism and consumption was driven by various cultural and sports events, including a music festival and a local football match [1][3] Tourism and Events - Luzhou hosted multiple events that significantly boosted local tourism, including a music concert by the local band "San Tiao Che," which attracted over 52,000 attendees and generated more than 15 million yuan in surrounding consumption [1][6] - The Luzhou Wine Festival and Galaxy Left Bank Music Festival saw participation from 150,000 young music fans, with over 88% of attendees coming from outside the city [1][6] - The local football match on October 8 attracted 14,000 fans, further contributing to the city's vibrant atmosphere during the holiday [1] Cultural and Economic Transformation - Luzhou is transitioning from being known primarily as a "wine city" to a more diversified cultural and tourism hub, integrating music, sports, and commerce [3][4] - The city has actively pursued the integration of cultural, tourism, and commercial sectors to enhance its brand and attract younger demographics [3][9] - Luzhou's government has shown proactive engagement in addressing visitor concerns, achieving a high problem resolution rate during the events [10] Young Consumer Engagement - The city is focusing on appealing to younger consumers by modernizing its cultural offerings, such as the introduction of music festivals that resonate with the youth [9][13] - Luzhou's music festival featured a "micro-drunk" experience area, showcasing local liquor brands and innovative products aimed at younger audiences [13][15] - The city is also enhancing its nightlife and cultural experiences through themed street renovations that attract young visitors [15][16] Future Developments - Luzhou is set to establish the Sichuan China Baijiu Museum, which aims to be a world-class industry museum, further embedding the city in the narrative of Chinese liquor culture [19][21] - The city is developing a new cultural district named "Wine Festival," which will serve as a hub for cultural and commercial activities, reinforcing its status as a regional center [21][22] - Luzhou's strategy includes promoting low-alcohol and experiential products to connect with younger consumers and enhance the local liquor industry's appeal [22]

以下文章来源于格隆 ，作者万连山 格隆 . 一个游走于资本市场与佛祖之间的浪子。我可以生，可以死，我大笑，由天决定！ 本文来自微信公众号： 格隆 （ID：guru-lama） ，作者：万连山，题图来自：AI生成 今年假期，想着不去人挤人，决定去稍微小众的云南腾冲。 机票贵到离谱，只好广州→昆明→保山→腾冲，一路转车、顺便看风景。晚上9点，终于到了地方， 兴奋的心情被浇熄一半。 大街上行人没有几个，在秋风中显得格外冷清。 进入度假村，完全黑灯瞎火，一栋栋居民楼亮灯率不足一成，路灯没有几个亮的，几乎只能靠月光辨 别方向。 乌漆嘛黑的。 收拾好去吃饭，更是夸张。 横竖四个方向八条街，烧烤店、火锅店、特色菜乃至酒吧，绝大多数都是空的，偶尔有一两桌客人， 都称得上生意好。 这可是黄金周假期，再小众也不至于冷清成这样…… 虽然对不喜热闹的人而言，这样的氛围确实舒适。 但还是忍不住问一句：人呢？ 热闹与冷清同在 与个人感受到的冷清不同，今年假期整体的出行数据，依然火热。 据交通部的数据，10月1日～10月8日，全国累计跨区域人员流动量预计24.32亿人次，日均3.04亿， 同比增长6.2%。 从出行方式来看，铁路、水路、航 ...