数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9040 | -6 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2387 | -4 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(5-9):(日,元/吨) 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 43 191383 | 11 菜粕月间价差(5-9)(日, ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 花生日报 2025 年 12 月 29 日 | 第一部分 | | | | 数据 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 花生数据日报 | | | | | | | 2025/12/29 | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | 期货 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | PK604 | 7930 | -16 | -0.20% | 54,349 | -41.80% | 29,341 | 5.36% | | PK510 | 8218 | 22 | 0.27% | 382 | 33.57% | 1,404 | 18.18% | | PK601 | 8078 | 6 | 0.07% | 1,633 | 122.48% | 12,251 | -9.91% | | 现货与基差 | | | | | | | | | 现货 | 河南南阳 | 山东济宁 | 山东临沂 | 日照花生粕 | 日照豆粕 | 花生油 | 日照一级豆油 | | 今日报价 | 7600 | 84 ...

| 代码 | 名称 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量(手) | 成交额(元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 920023 | 田野股份 | 4.88 | -5.24% | 46.50万 | 2.30 Z | | 600191 | 一百姓的 | 12.91 | -3.15% | 17.86万 | 2.29亿 | | 002481 | 双塔食品 | 5.15 | -1.90% | 20.40万 | 1.05亿 | | 000911 | 广农糖业 | 7.44 | -1.72% | - 4.89万 | 3636.95万 | | 920273 | 一致魔手 | 32.90 | -1.64% | 1.53万 | 5044.27万 | | 000972 | *ST中基 | 3.80 | -1.55% | 5.34万 | 2030.97万 | | 920371 | 欧福蛋业 | 10.67 | -1.48% | 1.73万 | 1856.61万 | | 600127 | 金健米业 | 6.82 | -1.45% | 16.09万 | 1.10亿 | | 300138 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - The domestic rumor of customs control on soybean imports is bullish for near - term contracts and positive spreads. Attention should be paid to customs policy dynamics. US soybean exports are weak, there is no obvious weather - driven speculation in South America, and Brazilian premiums are expected to face pressure later. M05 is expected to be relatively weak, with an overall expectation of near - term strength and far - term weakness [7][8] - In terms of supply, the predicted 25/26 Brazilian new - crop soybean production will reach 177.6 million tons. As of December 5th, the Brazilian soybean sowing rate was 90.3%. As of December 3rd, the Argentine soybean sowing progress was 4.7%. There are no obvious short - term weather problems. There are concerns about domestic soybean meal supply in the first quarter of next year due to rumored customs delays, and domestic imported soybeans have started to be auctioned [7] - In terms of demand, short - term high livestock and poultry inventories support feed demand, but current breeding profits are in the red, and national policies may affect long - term supply. The cost - effectiveness of soybean meal has decreased, and recent downstream transactions are normal with good提货 performance [7][8] - In terms of inventory, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at historically high levels for the same period, the pace of soybean meal inventory reduction is slow, and the pressure of spot supply is still high. It is expected that inventory will be reduced more quickly from December to January. The number of days of soybean meal inventory for feed enterprises has increased this week [7][8] Group 2: Data Summary Basis Data - For 43% soybean meal spot basis, in Dalian it is 390 (up 10), in Rizhao 330 (up 10), in Tianjin 350 (up 10), in Zhangjiagang 340 (down 500), in Dongguan 290 (down 10), in Zhanjiang 310 (down 30), and in Fangcheng 310 (down 10). The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong is 76 (down 32) [4] Spread Data - The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal (factory) is 300, and the spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal on the main contract is 399 (down 9) [5] Other Data - The exchange rate of US dollars to RMB is 6.9815 (unchanged), the Brazilian soybean CNF premium is 150 (cents per bushel), and the Brazilian soybean crushing margin on the futures market is 90 yuan per ton [5] - As of relevant dates, Brazilian soybean sowing rate is 90.3%, and Argentine soybean sowing progress is 4.7% [7]

Core Viewpoint - Morning Light Bio has been recognized as a high-tech enterprise by the Hebei provincial authority, enhancing its credibility and potential for innovation in the industry [1] Group 1: Company Recognition - Morning Light Bio's subsidiary, Handan Morning Light, has been included in the second batch of high-tech enterprise filings by the Hebei provincial authority, with certificate number GR202513001844, issued on December 2, 2025 [1] - Another subsidiary, Morning Light Testing, has also been recognized as a high-tech enterprise, with certificate number GR202513002612, issued on December 2, 2025 [1] - The subsidiary, Shache Morning Light, received its high-tech enterprise certificate from the Xinjiang authorities, with certificate number GR202565000276, issued on October 28, 2025, valid for three years [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market last week was characterized by the strong rise of non - ferrous metals and the accelerated appreciation of the RMB. There are risks of correction in non - ferrous metals and uncertainties in the long - term appreciation of the RMB [2]. - The stock index is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there is pressure to continue rising; the bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and short - term trading should maintain a band - trading idea [5][7][8]. - The SCFI European line has a complex market situation with both positive and negative factors, and there are uncertainties in the future trend [9][10][12]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, platinum and palladium have high - level volatility, and there are opportunities for long - term price increases but short - term risks; gold and silver are still strong, but silver has high price risks; copper, aluminum, zinc, tin, etc. have different price trends and influencing factors [14][19][21]. - In the black market, steel prices are expected to be volatile, iron ore is neutral with price support and pressure, and the situation of coking coal and coke depends on factors such as production resumption [33][34][36]. - In the energy and chemical market, the oil price is in a low - level shock, and the performance of various chemical products such as LPG, PTA - PX, MEG - bottle chips, etc. is affected by factors such as supply and demand and macro - policies [44][45][48]. - In the agricultural products market, the supply and demand of live pigs need to be verified, the performance of oilseeds, oils, cotton, sugar, etc. is affected by factors such as supply and demand relationship and policy [82][83][86]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures - **Macro**: The market is influenced by factors such as the two - main - line characteristics of non - ferrous metals and RMB appreciation, and there are risks in the short - term rise of non - ferrous metals and uncertainties in the long - term appreciation of the RMB [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: There is a discussion about the long - term appreciation of the RMB, but there are limitations in applying relevant theories. The narrowing of the Sino - US interest rate differential is the core trigger for appreciation, and there are potential risks [4]. - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but there is pressure to continue rising, and it is necessary to pay attention to the breakthrough of the index [5][7]. - **Treasury Bond**: The bond market is not pessimistic in the medium term, and short - term trading should maintain a band - trading idea [8]. - **Container Shipping European Line**: The SCFI European line has a complex market situation with both positive and negative factors, and there are uncertainties in the future trend [9][10][12]. Commodities Non - Ferrous Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: There is high - level volatility, and the long - term price is expected to rise, but there are short - term risks. Attention should be paid to factors such as policy adjustments and market supply and demand [14][15][17]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are still strong, but silver has high price risks, and short - term trading should be cautious [19][20]. - **Copper**: The price is affected by the game between industrial and speculative funds, and there are risks in trading around the New Year [21][23]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, alumina has an oversupply situation, and cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [24][25]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock [26][27]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock, and there is limited upward space in the short term [27]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is a risk of short - term callback, but there are opportunities to build long positions in the medium and long term [28][29]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited short - term improvement in fundamentals, and polysilicon is in a shock state. Attention should be paid to technical aspects [30][31]. - **Lead**: It is expected to be in a shock range [32]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile, with support from the cost side and pressure from demand [33][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are neutral, with price support from steel mill replenishment demand and pressure from high supply [35][36]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The future trend depends on factors such as the resumption of domestic mines and the production of iron and steel enterprises [37][38]. - **Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese**: They are expected to be volatile and strong in the short term, but the upward space is limited [39][40]. Energy and Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp market is neutral, and the offset paper market has a slight increase in valuation. Attention should be paid to downstream demand [42][44]. - **Crude Oil**: The core contradiction is the game between short - term geopolitical risk premiums and weak fundamentals, and it is in a low - level shock [45]. - **LPG**: The near - term is supported, and the future is under pressure. Attention should be paid to marginal changes [46][47]. - **PTA - PX**: There is a situation of strong expectation and weak reality. PX has a good supply - demand pattern, but there is a risk of callback [48][51]. - **MEG - Bottle Chips**: The demand side is weak, and the valuation is under pressure. The market is expected to be affected by macro - narratives [53][54]. - **Methanol**: It is recommended to buy at a low level [55][56]. - **PP**: It is expected to be in a shock pattern, and the focus is on the scale of device maintenance in January [58][59]. - **PE**: It is expected to be in a bottom - shock pattern, and the upward space is limited [61][62]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They have rebounded at a low level, but it is not recommended to chase high prices [63][64]. - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has a weak cracking situation, and low - sulfur fuel oil has limited cracking drive. Both are recommended to wait and see [65][67]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be in a wide - range shock pattern, and different rubber varieties have different trading strategies [68][70]. - **Urea**: It is recommended to try to buy the far - month contract [71][72]. - **Soda Ash & Caustic Soda & Glass**: Soda ash has an oversupply expectation; glass has high inventory and low - season pressure; caustic soda is in a weak state and is expected to be in a wide - range shock [73][74][76]. - **Log**: It can be considered to use an option double - selling strategy [78][79]. - **Propylene**: It is necessary to pay attention to marginal changes, and the price is expected to be in a low - level shock [80][81]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply and demand in the peak season need to be verified. The short - term is based on fundamentals, and the long - term can be bullish [82]. - **Oilseeds**: The short - term is affected by weak reality, but there are opportunities for phased rebounds [83][84]. - **Oils**: They are expected to be in a wide - range shock in the short term, and palm oil is relatively strong [86]. - **Cotton**: There is a risk of short - term callback, but there is upward space in the long term. Attention should be paid to downstream orders and policy changes [87][88]. - **Sugar**: There is pressure for the price to rise further in the short term [89]. - **Eggs**: The long - term egg - laying hen capacity is excessive, and short - term trading should be cautious [90]. - **Apples**: There is pressure on the disk due to the slowdown in consumption, and there are opportunities to build long positions after a pullback [91][92]. - **Red Dates**: They are expected to be in a low - level shock in the short term, and the long - term price is under pressure [93].

Core Viewpoint - Double Tower Food has been approved to undertake a national key research and development project aimed at advancing the green manufacturing and biosynthesis of functional proteins, which will significantly boost the high-quality development of the pea protein industry [1][4]. Group 1: Project Approval and Significance - The project is part of the "14th Five-Year Plan" for national key R&D initiatives, focusing on critical technologies for food nutrition and safety, led by Shanghai University of Engineering Science in collaboration with domestic partners [1]. - This approval marks a milestone in the company's technological advancement and recognizes its comprehensive strength in the research and development of key functional protein technologies [2]. Group 2: Technological Innovation and Achievements - Double Tower Food has transitioned from being a technology follower to a leader in the pea protein deep processing sector, having undertaken multiple significant provincial and national research projects since 2020 [2]. - The company has established several high-end innovation platforms, including an academician workstation and a provincial enterprise technology center, and has received numerous awards for technological innovation, with core technologies reaching an internationally advanced level [2][3]. Group 3: Collaborative Innovation Ecosystem - The company has built a comprehensive innovation ecosystem characterized by talent aggregation, platform support, and intellectual property protection, with a total of 72 authorized patents, including 20 invention patents [3]. - Collaborations with academic institutions, including partnerships with leading universities, have facilitated a synergistic approach to innovation, enhancing the efficiency of talent, technology, and resources [3]. Group 4: Industry Development and Product Innovation - The project will enable breakthroughs in core technologies for green manufacturing and biosynthesis, promoting cleaner, more efficient, and intelligent production processes, thereby enhancing the company's competitiveness and brand influence in the global market [4]. - The company is focused on converting research outcomes into productive capabilities, developing functional pea protein products tailored to diverse customer needs, and expanding its product range to include various types of proteins [4][5]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Moving forward, Double Tower Food aims to leverage the newly approved project as a starting point to deepen collaborative innovation and accelerate the industrial application of key technological achievements, contributing to the high-quality development of China's protein industry [5].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting focused on exploring new investment opportunities in Hainan Free Trade Port, emphasizing collaboration among various Sichuan business associations and local government entities to leverage the region's advantages [1][2]. Group 1: Event Overview - The "New Investment Opportunities in Hainan Free Trade Port" seminar was held in Haikou, organized by Hainan Provincial Department of Commerce and Sichuan Chamber of Commerce [1]. - Representatives from 23 Sichuan (Chuan-Yu) business associations participated, aiming to connect with investment opportunities in the free trade port [1]. - The event included presentations from local governments promoting quality projects and industry development directions [1]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The investment efforts are centered on Hainan's modern industrial system, targeting key industries such as biomedicine, digital economy, high-end equipment, and tropical agricultural product processing [1]. - The focus is on helping businesses identify precise investment entry points within these advantageous sectors [1]. Group 3: Policy and Collaboration - Sichuan business leaders highlighted the benefits of Hainan's zero tariffs and low tax rates, which create diverse development opportunities and promote regional collaboration [2]. - Various business associations are establishing investment service centers to facilitate quick connections and support for external enterprises looking to invest in Hainan [2]. - The provincial government is fostering a comprehensive investment framework involving multiple stakeholders to enhance resource matching and accelerate business establishment [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the need to enhance cultural tourism consumption and develop various initiatives such as "Travel in Yunnan," "Colorful Clouds" series, and "Yunnan Night" to stimulate economic growth [1][3] Group 2 - The proposal aims to consolidate and elevate the特色优势产业 (characteristic advantageous industries) by focusing on highland特色农业 (highland characteristic agriculture) and promoting deep processing of agricultural products [2] - The plan includes the development of a world-class fresh-cut flower industry and the modernization and international branding of the coffee industry [2] - It seeks to strengthen the entire industry chain of traditional Chinese medicine and establish a "second tobacco industry" while enhancing the natural rubber industry [2] - The initiative promotes the deep integration of culture and tourism, aiming to enhance the appeal of Yunnan as a travel destination and build a trustworthy tourism service brand [2] Group 3 - The proposal outlines actions to unleash consumer potential by optimizing consumption structure and promoting the construction of a strong commercial province [3] - It emphasizes the importance of utilizing consumption promotion policies to release potential in sectors such as home appliances, travel, and housing [3] - The plan includes expanding cultural tourism consumption and developing new consumption growth points, such as emotional economy and new retail models [3] - Support for the integration of online and offline shopping, as well as the development of new business models like "smart retail" and social e-commerce, is also highlighted [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is positive, with various sectors showing different trends. The stock index futures still have the potential to break through at the end of the year, while the bond market is supported by the loose capital situation. In the agricultural products sector, there are different trends in various varieties, such as the overall shock in the protein meal market and the strong domestic sugar price. In the black metal sector, steel prices are in a range - bound shock, and the double - coke shows a wide - range shock. In the non - ferrous metal sector, the prices of gold, silver, and copper are strong. In the energy and chemical sector, the oil price is weak, and the asphalt is in a narrow - range shock [21][23][25]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising steadily after breaking through 3900 points. The short - term shock near 4000 points increased. Before the New Year's Day, there are only three trading days, and the negative factors are limited. The index has broken through the suppression of the 60 - day moving average, and the moving average system is arranged in a long position. The futures discount has continued to converge this week. The trading strategy is to go long on dips in a shock - upward trend, wait for the discount to widen for IM/IC long 2603 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage, and use bull spreads for options [21]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The loose market capital situation at the end of the year continues to support the bond market. The bond futures market closed up last week. However, the central bank's regular meeting did not release much incremental information, and the probability of a central bank interest rate cut in the short term is not high. The trading strategy is to try to go short on TS and TF contracts at high levels and wait and see for arbitrage [23]. 3.2 Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The CBOT soybean and soybean meal indexes declined. In Brazil, the abundant rainfall is beneficial to the soybean crop, and the expected output is increased. The domestic soybean meal crushing profit is still significantly in the red, and the supply is uncertain. The trading strategy is to lay out a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [25][26]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price fluctuated slightly downward, while the domestic sugar price remained strong. The Brazilian sugar is gradually entering the harvest stage, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, with high processing costs and the upward trend of the external market providing support. The trading strategy is to expect the international sugar price to fluctuate slightly upward at the bottom in the short term and the domestic sugar price to maintain an upward trend. Wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [28][31][33]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The domestic soybean oil inventory is gradually decreasing, and the rapeseed oil is still affected by policies. The overall oil price has rebounded, but factors such as the postponement of the US biodiesel final plan and the high inventory of Malaysian palm oil may suppress the upward space. The trading strategy is to consider going long on palm oil after a stable stop - fall, but the upward height may be limited. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [34][35][36]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn price is weak, and the domestic corn spot price is stable in the short term, with pressure in the later stage. The trading strategy is to go long on the 03 and 07 corn contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39]. - **Hogs**: The hog price has shown a phased upward trend, but the overall supply pressure still exists. The trading strategy is to consider short - selling at high points, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [40][41][42]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price fluctuates in a narrow range. The trading strategy is that the 05 peanut contract fluctuates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [43][44][46]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has declined slightly. In the short term, the near - month contract is expected to fluctuate weakly, and in the long term, the price is expected to strengthen after the Spring Festival, but the increase may be limited. The trading strategy is to go long on the far - month contract on dips, wait and see for arbitrage and options [47][48][50]. - **Apples**: The apple demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. This year's apple production has decreased, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. The trading strategy is to expect short - term range - bound fluctuations, use the strategy of long 1 and short 10 for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [52][54][55]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the cotton price fluctuates strongly. The Xinjiang cotton planting area is expected to be compressed in 2026, and the sales progress is fast. The trading strategy is that the US cotton is expected to fluctuate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly, with a possible short - term correction risk. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [56][57][59]. 3.3 Black Metals - **Steel**: The black metal sector showed a shock - strong trend last night. The five major steel products continued to reduce production, and the inventory continued to decline. The steel price is supported by costs, and the steel mills have restocking expectations, but the resumption of iron - making at the end of the month may suppress the upward space. The trading strategy is to maintain a shock - strong short - term trend, short the coil - coal ratio at high points for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [61][62]. - **Double - Coke**: The market is in a large - scale game, and there is no main trading logic. The coking coal auction in Shanxi has shown signs of stabilization, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance has increased. The trading strategy is to expect a wide - range shock and wait and see [65][66]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price fluctuated last Friday night. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the domestic terminal steel demand has declined. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate and wait and see for arbitrage and options [68][69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The commodity market sentiment is strong, and ferroalloys follow the short - term rebound. However, the upward space is limited by demand. The trading strategy is to follow the short - term rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [70][71][72]. 3.4 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver rose sharply last Friday. The CME raised the margin of silver futures contracts, and the market sentiment is high. The trading strategy is to consider taking partial profits on long gold and silver orders before the New Year's Day holiday, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options to protect the remaining long positions [74][75][78]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The platinum and palladium markets are in a wide - range shock period of capital game. The macro - environment is relatively loose, and the demand prospects are boosted by news. The trading strategy is to go long on dips based on the MA5 daily line, choose the opportunity to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [78][79][82]. - **Copper**: The copper price hit a new high last Friday night. The macro - environment provides liquidity, and the supply is tight. The trading strategy is to control positions in the short term and go long on dips in the long term. Pay attention to the opportunity of calendar spread arbitrage and wait and see for options [83][84][85]. - **Alumina**: The policy expectation promotes the price increase, which resonates with the expectation of basis convergence. The trading strategy is to be cautious about chasing the rise, wait and see for arbitrage and options [86][87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The aluminum price is strong along with the sector. The global shortage pattern remains, and the domestic downstream demand has resilience. The trading strategy is to expect the price to be strong along with the sector, wait and see for arbitrage and options [88][90][91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the aluminum alloy price runs at a high level along with the aluminum price. The trading strategy is to expect high - level fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [92][93][95]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price is strong along with the non - ferrous sector, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect wide - range fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage and options [97][98][99]. - **Lead**: The lead price is strong due to low inventory and the influence of the macro and capital aspects. The fundamentals are weak in supply and demand, and the price is expected to fluctuate in a range. The trading strategy is to take partial profits on long orders, wait and see for arbitrage and options [99][100][102]. - **Nickel**: Nickel is a weak variety in the strong sector and has a supplementary increase. The Indonesian policy is undetermined, and the demand lacks growth points. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of the upward trend, wait and see for arbitrage and options [103][105][106]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel price is strong along with the nickel price. The social inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported, but the upward space is limited. The trading strategy is to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price increase, wait and see for arbitrage and options [107][108]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon is in a short - term rebound, and the demand in the first quarter of 2026 is pessimistic. The trading strategy is to sell short on rallies in the medium term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [109]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon is expected to be strong in the long term, but pay attention to risk management in the short term. The trading strategy is to buy on dips, go long on polysilicon and short on industrial silicon for arbitrage, and sell put options [110][112]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate price runs at a high level. The trading strategy is to control positions and be cautious in operation, wait and see for arbitrage and options [113][114][115]. 3.5 Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The spot freight rate has different views on the high point in January, and the short - term is expected to maintain a shock. The demand is expected to improve from December to January, and the supply has little change. The trading strategy is to take most profits on long EC2602 contracts at high points and hold a small position lightly. The far - month contracts may be suppressed by the resumption of navigation expectations. Wait and see for arbitrage [116][117]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The cease - fire agreement is advancing, and the oil price is running weakly. The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range. The trading strategy is to expect a weak shock, the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil price calendar spread is weak. Wait and see for options [119][120]. - **Asphalt**: The cost support is limited, and the asphalt price fluctuates in a narrow range. The trading strategy is to expect a shock, and the BU2602 contract refers to the range of 2900 - 3050. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [121][123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be in a weak shock before the end of January. The trading strategy is to be bearish, the low - sulfur cracking spread and the high - sulfur cracking spread are weak, and wait and see for options [125][126]. - **Natural Gas**: The LNG is in a low - level shock, and the HH is rebounding. The trading strategy is to continue to hold long HH2602 contracts, wait and see for arbitrage and options [127][128]. - **LPG**: The LPG spot price is weakening, and the futures are consolidating. The trading strategy is to go short on the far - month contracts on rallies, use the 03 - 04 reverse spread for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130][131]. - **PX&PTA**: The PX and PTA prices have fallen from high levels due to polyester filament production cuts and cost weakening. The trading strategy is to expect high - level fluctuations, use the PX&PTA 3 and 5 contracts for calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for options [131][132][134]. - **BZ&EB**: The pure - benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. The trading strategy is to expect a shock - strong trend, go short on pure benzene and long on styrene for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [134][137][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Some devices boost market buying sentiment due to production cuts or shutdowns. The trading strategy is to expect short - term wide - range fluctuations and medium - term weak shocks. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [139][140]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is strong, and the processing fee is under pressure. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate strongly, wait and see for arbitrage and options [141][142]. - **Bottle - Chip**: The bottle - chip price fluctuates with the cost side, and the supply - demand situation is relatively loose. The trading strategy is to expect the price to fluctuate strongly, wait and see for arbitrage and options [143][144][145]. - **Propylene**: The propylene supply pressure increases. The trading strategy is to expect wide - range fluctuations, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell straddle options [146][147]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP warehouse receipts have returned to the level in mid - December. The trading strategy is to try to go long on the L 2605 contract in a small amount, set a stop - loss at 6320 points; wait and see for the PP 2605 contract. Try to go long on the SPC L2605&PP2605 spread in a small amount and set a stop - loss at +118 points. Sell the PP2605 - put - 6100 contract at an opportunity and set a stop - loss at 137.0 points [148][149][150]. - **Caustic Soda**: The caustic soda price fluctuates. The trading strategy is to expect a shock, wait and see for arbitrage and options [151][153][154]. - **PVC**: The PVC rebound is weak. The trading strategy is to expect a continuous rebound, wait and see for arbitrage and options [155][156][157]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price is expected to fluctuate weakly this week. The trading strategy is to expect a weak price this week, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options at high points on the far - month contracts [157][158][159]. - **Glass**: The glass futures price fluctuates. The trading strategy is to expect the price to continue to decline this week, wait and see for arbitrage and options [160][161]. - **Methanol**: The methanol continues to fluctuate. The trading strategy is to go long on the 05 contract at low levels without chasing the rise, pay attention to the 5 - 9 calendar spread arbitrage, and sell put options on pullbacks [162][163]. - **Urea**: The urea shows signs of fatigue. The trading strategy is to expect a short - term correction, pay attention to the phosphate fertilizer control policy, wait and see for arbitrage and options [164][165]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The tires are accumulating inventory. The trading strategy is to go short in the short term without chasing the short, wait and see for arbitrage and options [166][167][168]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The tires are accumulating inventory. The trading strategy is to try to go long on the BR 02 contract at an opportunity and set a stop - loss at 11450 points; hold the BR2603 - NR2603 spread (2 lots vs 1 lot) and set a stop - loss at - 1240 points. Wait and see for options [171][172][173].