交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-13） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：主产地煤矿保持正常开工节奏，焦煤供应充足。近期下游低库存企业有一定补库意愿，叠 加部分贸易商进场拿货，市场成交氛围有所增加，部分煤矿在前期价格下调后，出货情况有所改善，库 存压力略有缓解，报价暂趋于稳定。但市场心态虽因部分煤种出货好转略有缓和，但整体仍偏向谨慎， 仍有部分煤种出现补跌情况；中性 焦煤 2、基差：现货市场价1175，基差22；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线上方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多增；偏多 6、预期：下 ...

最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 最新 日变化 周变化 月变化 年变化 秦皇岛5500 738.0 -3.0 -11.0 37.0 43.0 25省终端可用天数 22.1 -0.6 2.1 1.1 4.5 秦皇岛5000 655.0 -5.0 -16.0 39.0 55.0 25省终端供煤 486.2 2.0 -122.3 -153.8 -136.6 广州港5500 815.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 10.0 北方港库存 2434.0 23.0 83.0 198.0 -376.0 鄂尔多斯5500 520.0 0.0 -10.0 20.0 45.0 北方锚地船舶 57.0 -3.0 -27.0 -23.0 -13.0 大同5500 575.0 0.0 -10.0 20.0 30.0 北方港调入量 182.9 12.6 23.0 27.1 32.4 榆林6000 645.0 0.0 -30.0 -25.0 28.0 北方港吞吐量 153.2 3.7 -14.9 -11.6 -10.5 榆林6200 700.0 0.0 -30.0 -45.0 55.0 CBCFI海运指数 724.2 12.2 58.0 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-03-13 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 供给方面，最新一期海外矿石发运环比下滑。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量双双下降。非主流国家发运降低。 近端到港量止跌回升。需求方面，最新一期钢联口径日均铁水产量环比下降 6.39 万吨至 221.2 万吨。高炉 检修主要为环保限产影响，主要集中在河北地区。复产高炉因周期内复产时点偏晚，预计下期逐步兑现。 钢厂盈利率环比回升。库存端，港口库存小幅增长，高位维持。综合来看，铁矿石海外供给高位波动，边 际下滑。BHP 谈判问题加剧资源结构性紧张预期。海外方面，中东冲突波及大宗商品市场，局势发展不确 定性较强。冲突持续可能提升运费成本，同时对供给端产生轻微扰动。整体而言，受谈判问题及海外地缘 冲突影响，矿价震荡偏强运行。同时波动风险加大，注意风险控制，关注后续谈判进展及地缘局势发展。 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zh ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of accelerating energy market reforms during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to build a strong energy nation, aligning with the new energy security strategy and high-quality development goals [3][4]. Group 1: Energy Market Reform Achievements - Since the 18th National Congress, significant progress has been made in energy system reforms, establishing a framework that emphasizes "regulating the middle and liberating both ends" [5][4]. - The national unified electricity market has been initially established, with over 1 million registered market participants and 64% of total electricity consumption traded in the market [6][4]. - The coal trading market system has been improved, with a nationwide coal trading platform established to ensure stable market operations [7][4]. Group 2: Price Mechanism Improvements - The electricity pricing reform has advanced, with market-based pricing for coal and renewable energy, reflecting supply and demand dynamics [8][4]. - The oil and gas pricing mechanisms have been enhanced, with over 80% of natural gas prices now determined by market forces [8][4]. - A more refined coal market pricing mechanism has been established, including policies to guide coal prices within reasonable ranges [8][4]. Group 3: Challenges and Strategic Focus - The "14th Five-Year Plan" period is critical for achieving carbon peak goals and constructing a new energy system, facing both domestic and international challenges [9][4]. - The article highlights the need for a market-driven approach to resource allocation and price signaling to achieve energy security, green transformation, and economic efficiency [10][4]. Group 4: Future Directions for Energy Market Mechanisms - The article calls for the establishment of a unified, open, and competitive national energy market system to support the construction of a strong energy nation [14][4]. - It emphasizes the need for a new energy pricing system that reflects diverse values and responsibilities among market participants [16][4]. - Strengthening market regulation and enhancing the legal framework for energy markets are essential for ensuring effective governance and stability [17][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [7] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts and iron ore supply disturbances have led to a strong cost side, with high energy valuations and tight liquidity expectations for some iron ore spot varieties. Although iron - water production has dropped due to environmental restrictions, there is an upward expectation during the peak season. The prices of iron ore and coking coal are likely to rise and difficult to fall, which boosts the sector's valuation. However, the off - season fundamentals lack highlights, and the peak - season expectations are cautious, with limited upward drive from the real end. Attention should be paid to geopolitical and iron ore supply disturbances [1][2][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Short - term oscillation is expected, but the high - inventory pressure is difficult to relieve in the short term, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly oscillating [2][10] - **Scrap Steel**: The short - term supply - and - demand pattern of the scrap - steel market has marginally improved, with demand recovery slightly faster than supply. The fundamentals support the price. Driven by the rise in finished - product prices, scrap steel is expected to follow the upward trend, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of the price rebound and the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [2][12] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, although iron - water production is disturbed, there is still long - term rigid demand support. After the first round of price cuts, the possibility of continuous multiple - round cuts is small. The futures market is expected to follow coking coal. If the geopolitical conflict persists, it may be strong with energy prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][13] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal - mine production is limited, but with high Mongolian coal imports, there is real - world pressure on the fundamentals. The spot market is expected to oscillate. The futures price is affected by macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the conflict persists, it may follow crude - oil prices; if it eases, it will oscillate [3][14] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese (MnSi)**: The market supply and demand are loose, with high upstream inventory. There is resistance in cost transmission, and there is significant selling - hedging pressure above the futures price. When the futures price rises above the cost line, there is a risk of a high - level correction [3][18] - **Ferrosilicon (FeSi)**: Currently, the supply - and - demand contradiction is not significant, but the continuous profit repair may accelerate the resumption of production, making the supply - and - demand relationship gradually loose. The current futures valuation is higher than the comprehensive cost, and attention should be paid to the risk of a high - level correction [3][20] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the mid - and downstream inventories are moderately high. The current supply and demand are in surplus. If production and sales do not improve continuously, high inventory will always suppress prices, and short - term oscillation is expected [7][15] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply and demand are in surplus. Short - term oscillation is expected, and in the long run, the surplus pattern will intensify, and the price center will decline [7][17] 3.5 Steel - After the festival, downstream demand has gradually started, and price rebounds have stimulated the entry of futures and spot markets and rigid - demand restocking. The production of rebar has increased significantly, but the production of hot - rolled coils has decreased. The overall supply of the five major steel products is still low. Demand shows resilience but lacks highlights. Steel inventory continues to accumulate, but at a slower pace. The upward price increase is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances and peak - season demand [9] 3.6 Commodity Index - On March 12, 2026, the comprehensive index, special index (including commodity 20 index, industrial product index, PPI commodity index), and plate index (steel industry chain index) all showed varying degrees of increase [105][106]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry or company Core Insights - The economic foundation of Inner Mongolia is becoming more solid, with a regional GDP reaching 2.67 trillion yuan and a per capita GDP ranking in the top 8 nationally [5] - Fixed asset investment has an average annual growth rate of 12.8%, with significant project investments totaling 3.8 trillion yuan [5] - The region has made progress in building a modern industrial system, with over 80 products having the highest production capacity in the country, and advancements in green hydrogen and ammonia industries [5] - Inner Mongolia's innovation capacity is accelerating, with notable achievements in high-level talent development [5] - The region's urbanization rate has reached 71.5%, and significant infrastructure improvements have been made, including a comprehensive transportation network [5] Summary by Sections Economic Development - The region's GDP is projected to grow by 4.7% by 2025, with an average annual growth rate of around 4.5% [19] - The urbanization rate is expected to increase from 71.5% to 73% by 2030 [19] - Research and development expenditure is anticipated to grow by 9.4% [19] Innovation and Industry - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation, with a target of increasing the number of high-value invention patents per 10,000 people from 2.88 to 4.3 by 2030 [19] - The digital economy's core industries are expected to contribute 5% to the regional GDP by 2030 [19] Social Development - The average disposable income per resident is projected to grow by 4.6%, aligning with GDP growth [19] - The report highlights improvements in public health services, with a target of increasing the number of healthcare professionals per 1,000 people from 3.7 to 4.5 [19] Environmental Goals - The report outlines goals for ecological civilization, including a reduction in major pollutants and an increase in forest coverage from 21.98% to 22.24% by 2030 [19] - The region aims to achieve carbon peak targets by 2030, with a focus on green development and low-carbon transformation [40][42] Infrastructure and Investment - Significant investments in infrastructure are noted, with a focus on enhancing transportation networks and energy production capabilities [5][6] - The region's coal supply exceeds 3.5 billion tons, maintaining its position as a national leader in coal supply [6] Cultural and Social Integration - The report emphasizes the promotion of national unity and cultural integration, with initiatives to enhance the awareness of the Chinese national community [20][21]

Market Overview - On March 12, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.1%, the CSI 300 decreased by 0.36%, the STAR 50 dropped by 1.24%, the CSI 1000 declined by 0.33%, the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.96%, and the Hang Seng Index fell by 0.7% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on March 12 were coal (+4.24%), utilities (+1.89%), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+1.32%), comprehensive (+1.01%), and steel (+0.69%). The worst-performing sectors were defense and military (-2.33%), machinery and equipment (-1.86%), telecommunications (-1.53%), media (-1.3%), and beauty and personal care (-1.27%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on March 12 was 24,606 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 11.283 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Key Insights - The report indicates that China's exports to emerging economies in Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East are expected to maintain rapid growth in 2026 [5] - The market view on exports is positive, with no change in outlook [5] - The driving factors for this growth are based on updated data, with a bullish outlook for exports in 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East on international oil and gas prices, which in turn is driving up domestic coal prices and creating a surge in the coal sector, with companies like Yanzhou Coal Mining Company and Zhengzhou Coal Electricity achieving significant stock price increases [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The coal sector is experiencing a strong rally, with the Shanwan Coal Index rising by 27.82% year-to-date, ranking second among primary industries, and reaching its highest level since June 2015 [5]. - The ongoing Middle East conflicts are a major catalyst for the coal sector's rise, as disruptions in oil supply have led to a spike in Brent crude oil prices, which surpassed $95 per barrel, and a corresponding increase in European natural gas prices [5][6]. - Historical trends indicate that high oil and gas prices due to geopolitical tensions often lead to increased coal demand as a substitute energy source, with international thermal coal prices already rising by 20% [5][6]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The domestic coal industry is currently in a phase of "anti-involution," focusing on reducing imported coal and controlling domestic coal production to stabilize prices [6]. - Despite a generally oversupplied market, the anticipated reduction in imported coal due to rising international prices may provide support for domestic coal prices [6]. - Current thermal coal prices are hovering near the breakeven point for coal power profitability, while coking coal prices are at a five-year low, indicating strong upward price elasticity [6]. Group 3: Company Performance and Valuation - The coal sector is facing a "performance bottom," with many companies reporting significant declines in earnings for 2025, including a projected profit drop of 81.62% to 83.74% for Pingmei Shenma Group [7][8]. - Despite the bleak earnings outlook, the potential for recovery exists as coal prices begin to rebound, which could activate profit elasticity and lead to valuation recovery for companies that have seen substantial earnings reductions [8]. - High dividend yields remain attractive, with major companies like China Shenhua and Shanxi Coking Coal continuing to offer mid-term dividend plans, making them appealing to conservative investors [8].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors for analysis[1][2][3]

Group 1 - The article discusses how geopolitical conflicts, particularly involving the US, Israel, and Iran, are expected to stabilize coal prices during the off-season and elevate average prices [1][2] - International coal prices have risen by 20% due to surging natural gas prices, leading to increased expectations for global coal demand amidst high energy prices [2] - Domestic coal supply remains stable, but the significant rise in overseas coal prices may lead to a reduction in imports, which could support domestic coal prices from falling sharply [2] Group 2 - As of February 27, 2026, the price of Q5500 coal at Huanghua Port is 749 RMB/ton, reflecting an increase of 27 RMB/ton (3.7%) from the previous week [2] - The article notes that the demand for coking coal is expected to remain strong despite the off-season, with the price of main coking coal at Jing Tang Port holding steady at 1700 RMB/ton [3] - The average iron and steel production has slightly decreased, but the demand outlook remains positive, suggesting that the coking coal market may not experience a typical seasonal downturn [3]