煤炭行业周报 能源局政策催化板块情绪，板块震荡向 上格局或已现 2025 年 07 月 27 日 【投资要点】 挖掘价值 投资成长 强于大市（维持） 《煤炭行业 2016 年供给侧改革梳理》 2025.07.23 《旺季叠加新一轮"供给侧"政策，板块 情绪或进一步升温》 2025.07.20 《中电联预计全年全社会用电量增速 5% 以上，下半年需求将显著回升》 2025.07.13 东方财富证券研究所 证券分析师：李淼 证书编号：S1160524120006 证券分析师：王涛 证书编号：S1160525020003 证券分析师：朱彤 证书编号：S1160525030006 相对指数表现 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 2024/7 2025/1 2025/7 煤炭 沪深300 相关研究 《国内反内卷+印尼调配额，中长期看供给 优化或支撑上游价格》 2025.07.06 《煤价如期企稳回升，关注旺季节奏》 2025.06.29 业 研 究 / 煤 炭 / 证 券 研 究 报 告 铁水产量维持高位+政策催化，焦炭两轮提涨落地+焦煤延续大幅反弹。（1）截 至 7 月 25 日，京唐港主焦煤价格 1 ...

煤焦周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 日期：2025年7月27日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 煤焦：情绪兑现，宽幅震荡 ◆ 1、供应：供给收缩预期扰动 ◆ 4、观点: ➢ 近期焦煤再度成为市场关注热点，主要系源自前期关于能源局发布的一则通知，对于八个主要产区的煤矿开展核查工作，炒作核心在于前期煤矿是否存在生产计划 不合理的情况，即单月产量不能超过公告产能的10%。但以第三方资讯商测算口径为准，主要煤炭生产省份超产相对较少，仅新疆在6月原煤产量有出现超产情况。 所以就近期煤焦盘面价格所呈现出的上涨或更多来自于情绪宏观扰动为主。从7月1号反内卷首次被提及以来，包括上周五工信部出台的文件，反复在强化后续相关 行业相关政策落地的可能，吹风会的频繁召开也是进一步地加强了市场信心。此外，从基本面供需角度来看同样给予了价格上涨的必要条件，一方面国内供应受政 策约束强化以及安检形势仍存的影响，焦煤产量继6月煤矿安全生产月之后整体恢复较为缓慢，另一方面随着终端盈利能力同步增强，下游及贸易 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that the pulse market driven by exchange rates continues, with a focus on the upcoming issuance schedule of US Treasury bonds, indicating a potential liquidity disturbance due to the need to replenish over 500 billion USD in the TGA account by the end of September [1][18] - The "anti-involution" movement is seen as a superficial phenomenon, with the real driving force behind the rise in commodity prices being the beginning of a new super cycle in commodities, influenced by de-globalization and de-dollarization [2][29] - The report suggests that "anti-involution" is merely the first step in a debt-clearing cycle, emphasizing the need to pay attention to demand-side policies following the supply-side changes [3][34] Group 2 - ROIC-WACC is identified as a key indicator for measuring the degree of "involution," with current negative values concentrated in the midstream materials and manufacturing sectors, indicating deeper involution compared to previous years [4][42] - The report notes that the current super cycle in commodities is just beginning, driven by factors such as the restructuring of global interest distribution and the weakening of the dollar, which shifts pricing from demand to supply [2][29] - The analysis indicates that industries like coking coal, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment are still in a state of "true involution," suggesting potential for further price increases [4][51] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of "hard currency" and "hard technology" investments, recommending a focus on gold, banks, resources, and public utilities as safe assets, alongside domestic AI computing capabilities as a growth area [5][66] - It is noted that the current economic environment is characterized by significant deflationary pressures, with historical parallels drawn to previous debt-clearing cycles [3][34] - The report suggests that the upcoming political bureau meeting will be a critical observation point for future demand-side policies, which are essential for sustaining economic recovery [3][36]

二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 7 月 27 日 动力煤：终端补库积极，震荡企稳 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 报告导读： 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 （正文） 上周市场回顾： 上周动力煤现货报价呈现震荡偏强格局。 多头：1、主产地煤矿库存较上期减少 0.73 个百分点，月底少数中小煤矿月度生产任务完成停产减产，目前 冶金化工需求稳定，部分地方电厂补库需求释放，周边站台及煤场拉运积极性增加，多数煤矿销售良好，库 存维持低位运行。2、目前港口市场报价仍然高位坚挺，近期煤炭市场利好消息频出，市场参与者分歧逐渐 显现，多数贸易商观望煤矿超产核查情况，对后市保持乐观态度（汾渭信息）。 受供应政策预取约束冲击，产区及港口报价相对坚挺，但考虑到整体需求释放规模仍较有限，叠加后续供应 仍存修复预期，还盘压力同样具备。产地方面，主产区煤价延续偏强走势，部分中小煤矿月度产量完成停产 减产增多，目前冶金化工等终端采购稳定，站台煤场配煤等拉运积极。港口方面，市场情绪向好，港口发运 成本持续倒挂，库存小幅波动向下，市场优质货源补充不足，贸易商惜售 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the yield of the 10-year active Treasury bond rose from 1.664% last Friday to 1.664% + 6.85bp = 1.7325%. The "anti-involution" policy and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project extended the stock-bond seesaw last week to the commodity-bond seesaw this week. By referring to the supply-side reform from 2015 - 2017, it is predicted that the PPI year-on-year will steadily recover but is unlikely to turn positive this year, and the recovery of the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock requires time and central bank support. It is expected that the interest rate will mainly show a downward trend this year [1][18]. - Last week, overseas markets generally continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries rose less than the long - end. Considering the impact of Trump's tariff policy on prices and the support of stablecoins for the short - end of US Treasuries, and based on the new data, the report analyzes the US economic data in July 2025, including PMI, housing sales, unemployment benefits, and EIA crude oil inventory. The "Shadow Fed Chairman" and Trump are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in July remains at 4.1%, while the probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 61.9% [3][7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Impact of "Anti - Involution" Policy on Commodity - Bond Seesaw - This week (July 21 - 25, 2025), the yield of the 10 - year active Treasury bond rose 6.85bp from 1.664% last Friday to 1.7325%. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River hydropower project and the "anti - involution" policy affected the bond market. The yield increased on most days, with a slight decline on Friday [1]. - By looking back at the supply - side reform from 2015 - 2017, there was a one - year lag between the rise in commodity prices and bond yields. It is predicted that the PPI year - on - year will recover but not turn positive this year, and the recovery of the social financing stock growth rate needs time and central bank support. It is expected that the interest rate will mainly decline this year [18]. 3.1.2 Outlook for US Treasury Yields After Data Release - Last week, overseas markets continued the previous week's trend, with US Treasuries falling and US stocks remaining flat. The short - end of US Treasuries rose less than the long - end. The report analyzes the July 2025 US economic data: the service PMI decreased, the manufacturing PMI increased; the EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 316.9 million barrels; the annualized month - on - month decline in existing home sales in June was 2.7%; the number of initial jobless claims decreased, and the number of continued jobless claims increased. The "Shadow Fed Chairman" and Trump are pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates. As of July 25, the probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in July remained at 4.1%, and the probability of a rate cut in September increased to 61.9% [3][7]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In terms of open - market operations, from July 21 - 25, 2025, the net investment was 1295 billion yuan. The money market interest rates generally increased compared to last week [40]. - The yields of various bonds and the term spreads of bonds also changed. For example, the yields of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds increased, and the term spreads of some bonds also changed [48]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices significantly increased. For example, the price of HRB400 20mm rebar nationwide rose from 3321 yuan/ton on July 18 to 3472 yuan/ton on July 25, an increase of 151 yuan/ton [55]. - The official prices of LME non - ferrous metal futures all increased. For example, the price of LME 3 - month zinc rose from 2782 dollars/ton on July 18 to 2845 dollars/ton on July 25, an increase of 2.26% [57]. - The total commercial housing transaction area increased across the board [56]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 61 local government bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 3757.55 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 828.46 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 2929.09 billion yuan. The top three provinces in terms of issuance amount were Zhejiang, Chongqing, and Guangdong [68]. - One province issued special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts, with Henan issuing 118.6481 billion yuan. From January 1 to July 25, 2025, the total issuance of such bonds nationwide was 18364.35 billion yuan [71]. - The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 19.58 billion yuan, with Chongqing, Gansu, and Yunnan leading in redemption amount [75]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The stock of local government bonds this week was 52.3 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 3861.04 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.74%. The top three provinces in terms of trading activity were Guangdong, Shandong, and Sichuan. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 20Y, and 10Y [80]. - The yields of local government bonds generally declined this week [84]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Government Bond Issuance Plan The report shows the local government bond issuance plan for the end of July, with multiple provinces having planned issuances [85]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - This week, 370 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance amount of 3508.44 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 2959.29 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 549.15 billion yuan, an increase of 96.95 billion yuan compared to last week [87]. - Specifically, the net financing amount of urban investment bonds was - 308.31 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 857.46 billion yuan [88]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The issuance interest rates of various bonds changed. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds decreased by 3.55bp, while that of medium - term notes increased by 9.57bp [99]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market was 5722.35 billion yuan. Among them, the trading volume of medium - term notes was the largest, reaching 3252.69 billion yuan [101]. 3.4.4 Yield to Maturity - The yields of various bonds generally increased. For example, the yield of 1 - year short - term financing bonds increased by 9.61bp, and the yield of 3 - year medium - term notes increased by 10.40bp [104]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [109][116]. 3.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bonds, medium - term notes, and corporate bonds generally widened, while those of urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend [120][125]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The report lists the top five most actively traded bonds in each bond type. The industrial industry had the largest weekly trading volume of credit bonds, reaching 3262.06 billion yuan [133]. 3.4.8 Changes in Subject Ratings There were no bonds with upgraded or downgraded ratings or outlooks this week [134].

（二）券商最新研判 （一）重磅消息 据新华社报道，国务院总理7月26日在上海出席2025世界人工智能大会暨人工智能全球治理高级别会议 开幕式并致辞。围绕如何把握人工智能公共产品属性、推进人工智能发展和治理，提出三点建议。一是 更加注重普及普惠，充分用好人工智能发展的已有成果。二是更加注重创新合作，力求更多突破性的人 工智能科技硕果。三是更加注重共同治理，确保人工智能在造福人类上最终修成正果。 信达证券：当下市场具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件 牛市重要的驱动力量之一是股市政策驱动股权融资减少。2023年下半年以来，随着股权融资规模的下 降，股市的供需结构也在扭转。当下市场也具备政策和流动性驱动牛市的条件。 战略上，2025年下半年可能会出现类似2014年下半年的突破，战术上要等待经济或政策的催化。估值位 置偏低、上市公司盈利偏弱、政策基调积极、各类主题机会活跃，这些很像2013年~2014年年中和2019 年的震荡市，最终的结局大概率是更全面的牛市。战术层面，之前突破的临界点均有政策和经济高频数 据催化，目前需要等待观察1~2个月。 行业配置方面，稳健策略包括非银、银行，指数权重大且机构低配。需要轮动的策略上， ...

Market Overview - A-shares experienced high volatility last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index briefly surpassing 3600 points before a slight pullback. Major indices posted positive returns, with a notable focus on structural characteristics. The Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index led with a 4.63% increase, reflecting strong market interest in technology innovation sectors such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology [2] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.67%, the Shenzhen Index increased by 2.33%, and the ChiNext Index gained 2.76% during the week [2] - Among industry sectors, 87% achieved positive returns, with construction materials, coal, and steel performing particularly well, rising by 8.20%, 7.98%, and 7.67% respectively. Conversely, utilities, telecommunications, and banking sectors showed weakness, declining by 0.27%, 0.77%, and 2.87% respectively [2] Fund Issuance - A total of 35 funds were issued last week, including 23 equity funds, 3 mixed funds, 7 bond funds, and 2 QDII funds, with a total issuance of 27.604 billion units [2][4] Fund Performance - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.02% last week, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 1.77% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 1.81%. The bond fund index, however, saw a slight decline of 0.10% [3][7] - The performance of various fund categories showed that the ordinary equity fund index and the mixed equity fund index had year-to-date returns of 14.91% and 14.49% respectively, indicating strong performance in the equity space [7] Global Asset Review - Global asset performance showed significant divergence, with developed market equities generally rising due to favorable conditions from anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and positive corporate earnings reports. Emerging markets displayed mixed results, with the Hang Seng Index and Ho Chi Minh Index rebounding strongly, while the German DAX Index faced challenges from high energy costs and weak manufacturing [5] - In the commodities market, coking coal prices surged due to supply constraints, while oil prices faced downward pressure from demand concerns. Natural gas prices plummeted by 11.67% [5] Domestic Bond Market Review - The bond market exhibited a clear "see-saw" effect with the national bond futures index declining by 0.58%. Short-term funding spreads showed little change, while medium to long-term rates remained low [11]

Core Viewpoint - China Huaneng is focusing on high-quality development through technological innovation and actively contributing to national energy security while promoting low-carbon transportation and energy solutions [1][3][8] Group 1: Technological Innovations - The company has deployed 100 electric unmanned mining trucks powered entirely by photovoltaic green electricity, capable of carrying 90 tons over 60 kilometers [1] - Huaneng's compressed air energy storage project can store 2.8 million kilowatt-hours of electricity, sufficient to charge approximately 100,000 electric vehicles [2] - A new carbon capture solution developed by Huaneng is expected to reduce CO2 capture costs by over 40% [3] Group 2: Renewable Energy Projects - Huaneng's 1 million kilowatt wind power project in Turpan has achieved full capacity grid connection, utilizing innovative "anti-wind hub" technology [1] - The company is developing a multi-energy complementary energy base in Longdong, with a planned renewable energy capacity of 6 million kilowatts [7] - Huaneng's offshore floating photovoltaic platform "Yellow Sea No. 1" is designed to withstand waves up to 10 meters high [2] Group 3: Traditional Industry Upgrades - Huaneng is implementing large-scale equipment upgrades, including a new high-efficiency coal-fired power unit that reduces coal consumption by over 190,000 tons annually [5][6] - The company is also upgrading wind turbines to increase capacity, with a project expected to boost annual electricity generation by 267% [6] Group 4: Energy Supply and Demand - In 2024, Huaneng's electricity generation is projected to exceed 850 billion kilowatt-hours, with coal production reaching 110 million tons [8] - The company is committed to ensuring energy supply amidst extreme weather and high demand, maintaining a focus on both traditional and emerging industries [8]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - Coal prices have rebounded significantly, with the central price level continuing to rise. Domestic power plants have increased daily coal consumption, leading to further price increases for both coking coal and thermal coal. The report emphasizes that the industry is supported by both policy and fundamental factors, maintaining a "Positive" rating for the coal sector [6][41]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Performance - The coal sector outperformed the CSI 300 index, with a weekly increase of 8% compared to a 1.69% rise in the index, resulting in a 6.31 percentage point outperformance. A total of 37 stocks in the sector saw price increases, with Lu'an Huanneng showing the highest weekly gain of 31.22% [2]. Key Data on Coal Sales and Inventory - The average daily coal sales for monitored enterprises from July 18 to July 24, 2025, were 7.14 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 2.4% but a year-on-year increase of 3.4%. The total coal inventory (including port storage) was 30.55 million tons, down 2.3% week-on-week but up 20.5% year-on-year [2][8]. Thermal Coal Industry Chain - As of July 25, 2025, the price index for thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 664 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.15%. The inventory at Qinhuangdao port was 5.85 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 70,000 tons [3]. Coking Coal Industry Chain - The main coking coal price at Jingtang Port was 1,650 CNY/ton, up 16.2% week-on-week. The inventory at Jingtang Port decreased by 11.16% week-on-week, while the total inventory at independent coking plants increased by 56.27% [4]. Coal Chemical Industry Chain - The price of Yanquan anthracite coal remained stable at 820 CNY/ton. The methanol market price in East China rose to 2,476.14 CNY/ton, an increase of 100.91 CNY/ton week-on-week [5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-dividend thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround. Key companies to watch include China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry, and Huainan Mining for thermal coal, and Huai Bei Mining and Shanxi Coking Coal for coking coal [6][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the coal industry [2][5]. Core Insights - The expectation of supply contraction is rising, leading to a strong rebound in coal prices. This is primarily driven by policy changes on the supply side, which have intensified expectations of reduced supply. The "overproduction leads to shutdown" policy and a significant decrease in coal imports are key factors [7][8]. - The report highlights that the demand for electricity coal remains robust due to high temperatures, with power plants expected to maintain high daily consumption levels. The ongoing summer peak demand is anticipated to support coal prices [7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry consists of 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of 181.62 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 177.44 billion yuan [2]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Recent policy changes have led to increased uncertainty in domestic coal supply. A national coal mine production inspection is set to take place, focusing on compliance with production limits [7]. - In June 2025, China's imports of thermal coal fell to 23.93 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 31.11%, marking the lowest level in 28 months [7]. 3. Price Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the price of thermal coal at the Qinhuangdao port was 659 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 11 yuan per ton, but a year-on-year decrease of 200 yuan per ton [8]. - The price of coking coal at the same port increased by 240 yuan per ton, with a week-on-week growth of 16.67% [8]. 4. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on high-elasticity stocks such as Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shanxi Coal International, and Jin控煤业, which are expected to benefit from rising coal prices [7]. - Other companies like China Shenhua, Huaihe Energy, and Longyuan Power are also highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the favorable market conditions [7][8]. 5. Financial Performance and Dividends - The report tracks the dividend policies and growth prospects of key companies, indicating that several firms are expected to maintain or increase their dividend payouts in the coming years [13][14].