Core Insights - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) for July in China is reported at 89.0, remaining unchanged from the previous month [1] Industry Performance - The index shows a positive trend with 6 industries increasing and 2 decreasing in July [1] - Significant increases were observed in the following sectors: - Construction: up by 0.6 points to 89.6 - Transportation: up by 0.4 points to 83.7 - Real Estate: up by 0.3 points to 91.6 - Social Services: up by 0.3 points to 89.1 - Information Transmission and Software: up by 0.3 points to 89.2 - Accommodation and Catering: up by 0.3 points to 80.8 [2] - The Industrial sector saw a slight decline of 0.2 points to 89.5, while Wholesale and Retail decreased by 0.1 points to 88.8 [2]

Report Information - Report Title: High - frequency Tracking Weekly Report 20250809 - Report Date: August 9, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The real - estate new home transactions declined both on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis, falling below the seasonal level, and further policy support is needed. The movie box office recovered, while the migration scale index dropped. Industrial production in the production field was stable, and infrastructure construction maintained resilience. In terms of investment, the consumption and price of rebar were divergent, and cement demand declined. The commodity futures market ran smoothly with differentiated performance among varieties, with lithium carbonate, iron ore, and polysilicon generally rising [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Demand - **Real - estate**: This week, the transaction area of commercial housing in 20 cities declined on a week - on - week and year - on - year basis, significantly below the seasonal level. The transaction area of second - hand housing in key cities also decreased overall. For example, in Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Hangzhou, the second - hand housing transaction areas all decreased on a week - on - week basis. The current real - estate supply and demand are weak, and more active real - estate easing policies may be needed in the second half of the year, such as further relaxing purchase restrictions in core cities, lowering mortgage interest rates, and reducing down - payment ratios. On August 8, Beijing announced a new housing purchase policy, allowing eligible families to buy an unlimited number of properties outside the Fifth Ring Road [3][4][14]. - **Consumption**: Movie box office recovered. As of the week ending August 1, the daily average retail sales of passenger cars increased by 41.0% on a week - on - week basis but decreased by 7.7% year - on - year. As of the week ending August 8, the national movie box office increased by 4.7% on a week - on - week basis and was stronger than the same period last year. The national migration scale index decreased by 5.0% on a week - on - week basis, and the subway passenger volume in first - tier cities declined [42]. 2. Production - **Mid - upstream**: The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces, petroleum asphalt plants decreased on a week - on - week basis. As of the week ending August 8, the operating rate of Tangshan blast furnaces dropped by 1.1 pct to 82.6%, the operating rate of rebar increased by 0.3 pct to 44.3%, the operating rate of PTA decreased by 2.5 pct to 76.2%, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Yangtze River Delta region decreased by 0.9 pct to 90.7%, and the operating rate of petroleum asphalt plants decreased by 1.4 pct to 31.7% [50]. - **Downstream**: The operating rate of the automotive industry declined slightly. The operating rates of all - steel and semi - steel tires in the automotive industry decreased on a week - on - week basis, and the absolute value of the semi - steel tire operating rate remained at a seasonal high. The trade - in subsidy policy continued to boost domestic demand and may support the production side in the short term [50]. 3. Investment - Rebar's apparent consumption recovered, but its price decreased. As of the week ending August 8, rebar's apparent consumption increased by 3.6% to 211 tons, and its price decreased by 1.0% to 3392.8 yuan/ton. The asphalt price decreased by 2.7% to 3535 yuan/ton. The cement price decreased by 0.6% to 103.8 points, the cement shipping rate decreased by 0.7 pct to 39.2%, and the cement inventory - to - capacity ratio decreased by 0.1 pct to 62.6% [66]. 4. Trade - **Export**: Port throughput decreased, and container shipping prices generally declined. As of the week ending August 8, the port's container throughput decreased by 8.5% on a week - on - week basis, lower than the level of the same period last year. The CCFI composite index dropped by 2.6% on a week - on - week basis, with the European route rising by 0.53% on a week - on - week basis, and the freight rates of the US West and US East routes decreasing by 5.56% and 5.14% respectively on a week - on - week basis. In addition, the BDI index continued to decline, dropping by 3.9% on a week - on - week basis [79]. - **Import**: The container shipping price decreased slightly, and the CICFI composite index was 673.9 points, down 0.9% on a week - on - week basis [79]. 5. Prices - **CPI**: The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices increased by 0.7% on a week - on - week basis. Vegetable prices rose, while egg, pork, and fruit prices declined. Specifically, vegetable prices increased by 3.3% on a week - on - week basis, pork prices decreased by 0.4% on a week - on - week basis, egg prices decreased by 0.8% on a week - on - week basis, and fruit prices decreased by 1.0% on a week - on - week basis [8][90]. - **PPI**: The Nanhua industrial product price index decreased by 1.3% on a week - on - week basis. The spot price of Brent crude oil decreased by 3.4% on a week - on - week basis, the WTI crude oil futures price decreased by 5.2% on a week - on - week basis, the IPE UK natural gas futures settlement price increased by 0.7% on a week - on - week basis, the COMEX gold futures price increased by 2.5% on a week - on - week basis, and the LME copper spot price decreased by 0.6% on a week - on - week basis. The commodity futures market ran smoothly with differentiated performance among varieties. This week, lithium carbonate, iron ore, soda ash and other commodity futures led the gains, while caustic soda, coking coal, and glass led the losses [8][98][109]. 6. Interest - rate Bond Tracking - Next week (August 11 - 15), the planned issuance of interest - rate bonds is 385.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of 173.5 billion yuan. Among them, the planned issuance of government bonds is 260 billion yuan, with a net financing of 164.4 billion yuan; the planned issuance of local bonds is 91.4 billion yuan, with a net financing of - 13.7 billion yuan; the planned issuance of policy - bank bonds is 34 billion yuan, with a net financing of 22.9 billion yuan [9][115]. - As of August 8, the cumulative issuance progress of replacement bonds this year has exceeded 94.2%, reaching 1.883 trillion yuan. The cumulative issuance progress of new general bonds is 68.2%, reaching 545.6 billion yuan, and the cumulative issuance progress of new special bonds is 64.0%, reaching 2.8179 trillion yuan [9]. 7. Policy Weekly Observation - The central bank has increased its gold holdings for the 9th consecutive month. As of the end of July, China's gold reserves were reported at 73.96 million ounces (about 2300.41 tons), an increase of 60,000 ounces (about 1.86 tons) compared with the previous month [126][127]. - Multiple policies were introduced this week, covering pre - school education, finance supporting new industrialization, bond valuation, monetary policy, industrial policy, and real - estate policy, etc. For example, the State Council issued an opinion on gradually promoting free pre - school education; seven departments jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new industrialization; the central bank will conduct a 700 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase operation [127][128].

Inflation Data Summary - July CPI decreased by 0.1 percentage points year-on-year to 0.0%, primarily due to weak food prices[3] - Core CPI improved for the third consecutive month, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 0.8%, driven by higher gold prices and strong service consumption[3] - July PPI remained at a near 23-month low, with a year-on-year decline of -3.6%[3] Food Prices Impact - July food CPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, significantly below seasonal levels by 0.9 percentage points[4] - Year-on-year food CPI dropped by 1.6%, influenced by a high base from the previous year[4] - Fresh vegetable and meat prices increased by 1.3% and 0.4% month-on-month, respectively, but were still below seasonal averages[4] Core CPI Drivers - Service prices remained stable at 0.5% year-on-year, with significant increases in travel-related costs: airfares up 17.9%, hotel stays up 6.9%[5] - Gold and platinum jewelry prices surged by 37.1% and 27.3% year-on-year, respectively, due to rising gold prices[5] - Transportation fuel prices saw a reduced decline of 1.8 percentage points to -9.0% year-on-year[5] PPI Trends - PPI's month-on-month decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points, reflecting the impact of "anti-involution" measures[6] - International oil prices increased, contributing to a 3.0% rise in oil and gas extraction month-on-month[6] - Investment demand remains weak, limiting PPI recovery to a gradual improvement[6]

Market Overview - Since July, the A-share market has shown strong performance, recovering from a dip and reaching new highs for the year, approaching the previous peak of 3674 points from October 8, 2022 [3] - There are mixed sentiments among investors, with some optimistic about breaking through 3674 points and potentially reaching 4000 points, while others are concerned about high valuations and overly optimistic economic growth expectations [3] Fund Flows and Market Dynamics - The direction of the market is ultimately determined by the flow of funds, with net inflows driving market uptrends [4] - In 2017, the A-share market experienced a significant rally led by blue-chip stocks, with the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index rising nearly 30% [4] - In 2020-2021, the A-share market saw extreme volatility, with the CSI 300 Index reaching a historical high of 5930 on February 18, 2021, with a PE ratio of 17.5, significantly above the 10-year average of 12.3 [5] Institutional Investment Trends - The expansion of actively managed public funds has been a key driver of the recent market rally, with public funds' share of A-share free float market value increasing from 11.6% in 2020 to 13.6% in 2021 [7] - As of 2024, the banking sector has shown strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices posting gains of 22.2%, 19.6%, 16.5%, and 16.2% respectively [7] - The A-share ETF market has grown significantly, with a total market size of 3.7 trillion yuan, reflecting an 83% increase since the beginning of the year [8] Future Fund Inflows - Insurance funds are expected to become a major source of incremental capital in the market, with their holdings in stocks increasing from over 2 trillion yuan to nearly 3 trillion yuan [9] - The potential for insurance funds to drive market trends is supported by recent policy changes encouraging long-term investments in A-shares [18] - The shift in focus towards high-dividend stocks is anticipated, particularly in the banking sector, as insurance funds seek stable returns [9][10] Sector Performance and Outlook - The market may see a shift back to conservative styles, focusing on dividend-related sectors, particularly banks, utilities, and cyclical stocks [20][21] - The cyclical dividend stocks are viewed as a better investment choice due to their potential for recovery and growth, especially in light of ongoing economic reforms [22] - Recent performance has shown significant gains in cyclical sectors, with steel up 20.8% and construction materials up 17.9%, while utilities and banks have lagged behind [22]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown strong performance since July, with expectations of a bull market, but concerns about high valuations and overly optimistic economic growth predictions persist [2][3]. Market Dynamics - The direction of the market ultimately depends on the capital flow; when net inflows exceed outflows, the market rises, and vice versa [3]. - The dominant capital influences market style, as seen in previous years where specific funds drove significant market movements [4][5]. Fund Flows and Market Performance - In 2017, northbound capital significantly contributed to the blue-chip rally, with net purchases nearing 200 billion yuan, surpassing the total of the previous three years [5]. - The public fund sector has expanded, with its share of A-share free float market value increasing from 6.8% in 2019 to 13.6% in 2021 [8]. - As of 2024, the banking sector has surged by 53%, driven by substantial inflows into ETFs and insurance funds, with the Shanghai Composite Index and other indices showing notable gains [9][10]. Institutional Investor Landscape - Retail investors hold the largest share of A-shares at 54%, but institutional investors, including public funds, insurance, and private equity, dominate market influence [11][14]. - The decline in public fund market share from 13.6% in 2021 to 10.3% in 2024 indicates a shift in market dynamics [15]. Future Capital Inflows - Future capital inflows are likely to come from ETFs and insurance funds, with the latter expected to play a significant role in the second half of 2024 and beyond [18][19]. - Policy changes aimed at increasing insurance capital investment in A-shares are anticipated to drive further market participation [20][21]. Sector Focus - The market may shift towards dividend-related sectors, particularly banks, utilities, and cyclical stocks, as insurance funds seek stable returns [24][25]. - The cyclical dividend sector is viewed as a better investment choice due to its potential for recovery and growth, despite some segments already showing high valuations [25].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional hotel industry is adapting to the night economy by offering affordable dining options, thereby attracting a broader customer base and enhancing nighttime consumer activity [1][2][3]. Group 1: Hotel Initiatives - The Jinling Purple Mountain Hotel in Shanghai has introduced outdoor food stalls selling hotel-quality dishes at low prices, such as a 15 yuan braised pork chop, which has successfully attracted long queues of customers [1][2]. - The hotel’s food sales have seen a slight increase compared to last year, indicating a positive response to the new outdoor dining initiative, which also serves as a brand promotion strategy [3]. Group 2: Night Economy Growth - Shanghai's night economy has shown significant growth, with total nighttime consumption reaching 880.09 billion yuan in June, marking a 3.3% year-on-year increase, and the number of cultural venues participating in nighttime activities has risen by 35% [4][5]. - The city is expanding its night economy beyond traditional commercial areas, with new initiatives such as night bus routes connecting various nighttime attractions and themed river cruises enhancing the consumer experience [5]. Group 3: Consumer Trends - Analysts predict that by 2025, service-related consumption will increase to 43% of nighttime spending, with consumer activity extending beyond the traditional hours of 19-22 to after 22:00, indicating a shift towards more regular nighttime activities [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI), highlighting a shift in consumer prices and the implications for economic policy and market conditions [1][2][7]. CPI Analysis - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline of 0.1%, and remained flat year-on-year. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8%, marking the highest increase since March 2024 [1][6]. - The rise in CPI was primarily driven by increases in service prices (up 0.6%) and industrial consumer goods prices (up 0.5%). Seasonal factors and the impact of summer travel contributed to higher prices for air tickets, tourism, and accommodation [4][6]. - Food prices decreased by 1.6% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year, with fresh vegetables and fruits being significant contributors to this decline [6]. PPI Analysis - The PPI fell by 0.2% month-on-month, but this decline was the smallest since March, indicating a potential stabilization in industrial prices. Year-on-year, the PPI decreased by 3.6%, consistent with the previous month [2][8]. - The decline in PPI is attributed to seasonal factors, market order optimization, and uncertainties in international trade. Specific industries such as non-metallic mineral products and coal mining experienced price drops due to reduced demand [9][10]. - Despite the overall decline, the competitive market environment has led to a narrowing of price decreases in several sectors, including coal and steel, suggesting a potential for price stabilization in the future [10]. Economic Policy Implications - The article emphasizes the importance of coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to support economic stability and reasonable price levels. The People's Bank of China has indicated a need for moderately loose monetary policy to address domestic demand issues and low price levels [7].

Group 1: CPI and Core CPI Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% month-on-month in July, reversing a previous decline of 0.1% [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive month of growth [1][4] - The CPI's month-on-month increase was higher than seasonal levels by 0.1 percentage points, driven mainly by rising service and industrial goods prices [2] Group 2: Price Influences and Sector Performance - Service prices rose by 0.6% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.26 percentage points to the CPI increase, with significant impacts from travel-related costs during the summer [2] - Industrial goods prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, influenced by a 1.6% rise in energy prices, which contributed about 0.12 percentage points to the CPI [2] - The prices of gold and platinum jewelry saw significant year-on-year increases of 37.1% and 27.3%, respectively, impacting the CPI positively [4] Group 3: PPI Trends and Market Dynamics - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, but this decline was the smallest since March, indicating a narrowing of the decline [6] - The PPI's year-on-year decline remained at 3.6%, with the reduction in prices attributed to seasonal factors and international trade uncertainties affecting several industries [7][8] - Domestic market competition has improved, leading to a reduction in the PPI's downward pressure, particularly in sectors like coal, steel, and solar energy [8]

Group 1 - The core focus of the national initiative is to enhance the supply of skilled talent in manufacturing and service industries through large-scale vocational training, with over 5.12 million subsidized training sessions completed in the first half of the year [1][4]. - The training programs target specific sectors such as advanced manufacturing, digital economy, low-altitude economy, transportation, agriculture, and life services, with a particular emphasis on groups like college graduates and migrant workers [2][4]. - The training aims to align with market demand and employment services, facilitating a connection between training and job opportunities in urgent labor sectors [5][16]. Group 2 - In Jiangxi Province, the "5+2 Employment Home" online platform has been utilized to gather market demand and training intentions, resulting in 76,500 targeted vocational training sessions [13]. - The training model combines "job needs + skills training + skills evaluation + employment services" to enhance workers' skills and income potential [16]. - The demand for elderly care workers has surged, with specialized training programs being launched to meet this need, resulting in high employment rates for graduates [17][25]. Group 3 - The training for childcare professionals is also gaining traction, with a focus on enhancing the qualifications of practitioners in response to the increasing demand for professional and refined childcare services [34][40]. - In Nantong, Jiangsu Province, over 1,000 individuals have participated in vocational skills training for childcare and elderly care, reflecting a 30% increase compared to the previous year [40][41]. - The "order-based" training model in Bijie, Guizhou Province, has successfully matched training programs with local employment needs, resulting in immediate job placements for graduates [43][45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of comprehensive transportation as a crucial support for urban status and capability, playing a foundational, leading, and strategic role in promoting high-quality development [2] - The city aims to integrate into national strategies, enhance transportation connectivity, and accelerate the construction of a modern comprehensive transportation system, focusing on key projects in the Nanjing metropolitan area [2] - There is a strong emphasis on innovation-driven development in the transportation sector, including the promotion of low-altitude economy and intelligent connected vehicles as future industries [2] Group 2 - The city is committed to enhancing the effectiveness of transportation services for the public, optimizing public transport networks, and developing green transportation [2] - Continuous strengthening of party building and work style is highlighted, with a focus on maintaining and safeguarding the rights of new employment groups such as ride-hailing and freight drivers [3]