原油日报 | 2026-02-11 CPC原油出口仍未完全恢复 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所3月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌40美分，收于每桶63.96美元，跌幅为0.62%；4月交货的伦敦 布伦特原油期货价格下跌24美分，收于每桶68.80美元，跌幅为0.35%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.21%，报474元/桶。 （来源：Bloomberg） 2、 2月11日，特朗普政府官员已讨论是否扣押更多运输伊朗石油的油轮，以进一步向德黑兰施压。但由于担忧伊 朗几乎必然的报复行动以及对全球石油市场的影响，美国官员表示目前尚未采取行动。如果美国采取行动阻止其 他受制裁船只在伊朗装载石油，将挤压德黑兰的主要收入来源。此举将扩大白宫去年12月在加勒比海地区实施的 激进战略。然而，一些官员表示，该方案作为白宫迫使德黑兰达成限制核计划协议的数个选项之一，面临重重障 碍，扣押行为甚至被视为一种战争行为。针对美国升级的打击行动，伊朗很可能通过扣押该地区美国盟友的油轮， 甚至在霍尔木兹海峡布设水雷作为回应。任何一种举动都可能导致油价大幅攀升，使白宫面临政治风暴的风险。（来 源：Bloomberg） 3、 2月10日，印度海岸警 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the contrasting responses of India and China to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, highlighting China's strategic acquisition of Russian oil amidst India's retreat due to pressure from the U.S. [1][3] Group 1: India's Response - India halted its purchase of Russian oil after U.S. President Trump's threats and the promise of reduced tariffs on Indian goods, indicating a significant reliance on the U.S. market [5][7] - The Indian government faced backlash from opposition parties, suggesting that the agreement with the U.S. compromised national interests [5][7] - India's economic dependency on exports and the U.S. market led to a painful decision to forgo cheaper Russian oil, creating a demand gap in the global oil market [7][8] Group 2: China's Acquisition - China seized the opportunity to increase its imports of Russian oil, with exports reaching a historical high of 1.86 million barrels per day in January 2026, a 46% year-on-year increase [10][15] - Russia became China's largest oil supplier, surpassing Saudi Arabia, with a 56% increase in oil shipments to China compared to Saudi exports [10][15] - The oil acquired by China is primarily high-quality ESPO crude, known for its low sulfur content and high refining efficiency, making it a valuable asset [12][13] Group 3: Energy Cooperation - The relationship between China and Russia in energy trade has evolved from simple transactions to a structurally deepened partnership, exemplified by the Shandong Yulong Refinery's reliance on Russian oil [17][23] - The refinery's shift to exclusively using Russian oil since October 2025 illustrates the growing interdependence in energy supply chains between the two nations [19][21] - China's strategic decisions in energy procurement reflect a calculated approach to ensure energy security and economic benefits, rather than mere opportunism [38][42] Group 4: Implications for Global Energy Dynamics - Trump's strategy to weaken Russia's oil revenue inadvertently strengthened the energy alliance between China and Russia, creating a more stable supply chain for China [31][44] - India's marginalization in the energy market raises concerns about its long-term strategic position, as it may need to resume Russian oil imports to avoid being sidelined [33][35] - The article concludes that China's actions in acquiring Russian oil are driven by rational economic considerations, ensuring energy security while navigating geopolitical tensions [42][44]

Core Viewpoint - Venezuela's new oil law, signed by acting president Delcy Rodríguez, marks a significant shift in the country's approach to foreign investment in its oil sector, allowing foreign companies to take control of oil fields and significantly reducing government fees [1][4][11]. Group 1: Changes in Oil Policy - The new law allows foreign companies to hold majority stakes in oil projects, a departure from the previous requirement that the state-owned oil company must hold at least 51% [4][6]. - The government has reduced the royalty fee from 33% to 15%, making it more attractive for foreign investment [4][6]. - The introduction of international arbitration aims to provide foreign investors with more security and confidence in their investments [4][6]. Group 2: Historical Context - Historically, Venezuela's oil industry was characterized by nationalization and a strong stance against foreign involvement, especially during the Chávez era when foreign companies were expelled [6][9]. - The current situation represents a dramatic reversal, as the country now seeks foreign assistance to revitalize its oil production, which has drastically declined [6][9]. Group 3: Economic Conditions - Venezuela's oil industry is in a dire state, with outdated infrastructure and a significant loss of skilled labor, leading to production levels that are less than one-third of their peak [9][11]. - The country faces severe economic challenges, including dwindling foreign reserves and skyrocketing inflation, making it imperative to revitalize its oil sector [11][16]. Group 4: Global Implications - The opening of Venezuela's oil sector could lead to fluctuations in global oil prices, especially if foreign investment successfully increases production by one to two million barrels per day [13][15]. - The U.S. and China are both vying for influence in Venezuela's oil market, with the U.S. looking to establish pricing norms while China emphasizes resource sovereignty [13][15]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The long-term success of Venezuela's new oil policy will depend on its ability to transform oil revenues into technological advancements and a diversified economy, rather than merely replacing one group of operators with another [19].

美国对委内瑞拉的打击，实际上是一种精心布局的多重战略。一方面，控制了委内瑞拉的丰富石油资源，另一方面，也切断了中国的一条重要能源供应链， 同时进一步打击了俄罗斯和伊朗的石油出口。与此同时，印度为了换取特朗普对其部分关税的豁免，竟然选择背叛了俄罗斯，答应美国的相关要求，甚至在 某些方面可能与俄罗斯脱钩，尤其是在能源领域。这让人不禁感到，印度的立场摇摆不定，尤其是在是否继续购买俄油的问题上，莫迪政府显得犹豫不决。 但即便如此，印度与美国的这场交易，已经开始对俄罗斯的石油出口造成了不小的影响，且效果日益显现。 根据英国路透社的报道，俄罗斯为了继续维持其石油出口规模，特别是对中国的供应，甚至把折扣幅度提高到了前所未有的高度。这一举措显然是为了弥补 印度可能减少购买俄油带来的损失。然而，西方媒体对此的报道常常充满了偏见，尤其是针对中国和俄罗斯的新闻，几乎从未公正客观过。可以说，这些报 道是西方对中俄进行认知战的一个重要表现，意图通过挑起俄罗斯民众对中国趁火打劫的情绪，从而破坏两国间的合作关系。对此，中方的回应相当坚定， 并没有如西方媒体预期的那样掉入陷阱。中国驻俄罗斯大使明确表示，中国愿意增加俄罗斯的能源供应，并进一步 ...

中东地缘不确定性成为当前原油市场核心支撑因素。美国总统特朗普表示，若与伊朗的谈判未能取得成 果，将考虑向中东地区再派遣一支航母打击群，为可能的军事行动做准备，同时他强调仍希望通过外交 途径达成协议。伊朗外交部长阿拉格齐则指出，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡正试图将美国拖入同伊朗的战 争，但相关企图已遭遇失败。 美国交通部海事管理局近期向途经霍尔木兹海峡的商船发布最新航行指南，建议悬挂美国国旗的商船尽 可能远离伊朗领海，在被要求登船时口头拒绝且不强行抵抗。霍尔木兹海峡承载全球约五分之一的石油 运输量，相关航行提示再次引发市场对区域石油供应中断风险的关注。 供应端方面，OPEC+此前宣布维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，2026年3月继续暂停增产，为原油市 场提供相对稳定的政策锚点。美国能源信息署（EIA）最新短期能源展望报告显示，2026年布伦特原油 价格预期上调至58美元/桶，WTI原油价格上调至53.42美元/桶，同时下调2027年两者价格预期，反映出 对阶段性供应偏紧的判断，但对长期需求与新增产能释放保持审慎立场。 此外，北美冬季风暴过后，美国原油复产进程稳步推进，当前全国停滞产量已降至全国原油总产量的约 0. ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2026 年 2 月 11 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周二油价重心回落，其中 WTI 3 月合约收盘下跌 0.4 美元至 63.96 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.62%。布伦特 4 月合约收盘下跌 0.24 美元至 68.8 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 0.35%。SC2604 以 473.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 1 元/桶， | | | | 涨幅 0.21%。EIA 表示，随着美国扩大对委内瑞拉相关交易的许 | | | | 可，预计到 2026 年中期，这个南美国家的石油产量将恢复到美国 | | | | 12 月对该国实施海上封锁之前的水平。EIA 发布最新短期能源展 | | | 原油 | 望报告，上调今明两年美国石油产量预测，而美国石油需求预测 | 震荡 | | | 维持不变。在 EIA 预测的到 2027 年底的这段时期内，全球石油产 | | | | 量的增长速度预计将超过需求，从而增加库存并对价格造成压力。 | | | | API 数据显示，上周美国 API 原油库存增加 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market trends of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, under the influence of geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and seasonal factors [2][4][5] - It also provides insights into the stock market (A - shares, H - shares) and the bond market, suggesting potential trends and investment opportunities [47][48] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions between the US and Iran keep the Brent crude price volatile in the range of $68 - 70, with high geopolitical risk premiums expected [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical situations drive the market. High - sulfur fuel oil may face pressure if geopolitical risks ease, while low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by overseas refinery supply and European heating demand [22] - **Asphalt**: The market shows a supply - demand dual - weak pattern, and its price is mainly influenced by crude oil trends, with potential support for the cracking spread [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals fluctuated. With the US retail sales data and focus on non - farm payrolls, short - term volatility is decreasing, and a wait - and - see approach before the festival is recommended [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices oscillated narrowly. Before the festival, the position and trading volume are expected to shrink, and post - festival prices may first be pressured by inventory accumulation and then rebound based on demand expectations [4] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum and its related products like casting aluminum alloy, alumina, etc., face different situations. For example, aluminum has inventory increase and adjustment pressure, while alumina has a supply - surplus outlook [5][6][7] - **Zinc**: In a downward - volatility adjustment, with weakening consumption and supply - demand imbalance, the overall rebound is under pressure, but short - term high - level oscillation is expected [8] - **Lead**: With mixed signals of supply and demand, it is expected to oscillate at a low level around the cost line [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel rebounds with dull trading, and stainless steel has increasing inventory and weak market confidence [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices showed a positive - line oscillation. Attention is on the post - festival supply - demand changes during the peak season [11] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: It has a weak rebound with dull trading. The inventory structure is complex, and short - term uncertainty is high [12] - **Polysilicon**: Futures oscillate downward with light trading. The market is expected to maintain an oscillatory trend due to factors such as supply - demand and the approaching festival [13] - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices fall below 8400 yuan/ton. Supply may increase after the holiday, and demand is expected to be weak, so short - term prices may remain weak [14] - **Other Chemicals**: Various chemicals like polypropylene, plastic, PVC, etc., have different market trends based on supply - demand relationships, production capacity, and seasonal factors [27][28][29] Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oilseeds**: - **Soybean & Related Products**: The USDA report is neutral - slightly bearish, but with export expectations, the US soybean may maintain a relatively high - level oscillation [36] - **Corn**: The national sales progress is 61%. Before the festival, the market is quiet, and after the festival, prices may oscillate weakly [39] - **Livestock and Poultry Products**: - **Pig**: Spot prices continue to decline. There is a risk of post - festival supply pressure, and long - term prices may have a low point next year [40] - **Egg**: Some futures contracts hit new lows. There is upward repair power in the first half of 2026, and a long - position strategy can be considered after the holiday [41] - **Other Agricultural Products**: - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is slightly bearish, and the pre - festival Zheng cotton is expected to oscillate. Attention is on post - festival inventory changes [42] - **Sugar**: International and domestic production situations vary, and short - term sugar prices face pressure [43] - **Apple**: Futures prices oscillate. The market focus is on demand, and attention is on the de - stocking speed [44] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: A - shares had a narrow - range consolidation. The market may continue to repair this week, with potential structural rotation [47] - **Treasury Bonds**: Futures oscillated narrowly, with limited upward and downward space. A short - term strong trend may continue until the festival, and curve - related trading opportunities are recommended [48]

印度的摇摆背后，是难以调和的现实矛盾。印度90%的石油依赖进口，而国内七大炼油厂中，过半设备专门为俄罗斯乌拉尔重质原油设计。如果强行切换为 美国轻质原油，需投入数百亿美元改造生产线。更关键的是，印度与俄罗斯的军火合作深度绑定：印军60%的装备来自俄罗斯，从苏-30战斗机到T-90坦 克，甚至核潜艇技术，都依赖俄方支持。一旦彻底撕破脸，印度国防体系可能陷入瘫痪。 与此同时，俄罗斯的应对更为果断。面对印度采购量从每日200万桶峰值腰斩至110万桶（2026年1月数据）的冲击，俄罗斯迅速将出口重心转向中国。石油 交易员透露，俄罗斯对华出口的ESPO原油折扣已扩大至每桶9美元，主打印度市场的乌拉尔原油折扣更是达到每桶12美元，创下阶段性纪录。 但蹊跷的是，莫迪的回应仅有一句"感谢美国下调关税"，对停止采购俄罗斯石油一事只字未提。这种刻意留白，让美、俄、印三方的表态出现微妙裂痕。克 里姆林宫发言人佩斯科夫很快公开表示："未收到印度官方停止采购的通知。"而印度商业和工业部长戈亚尔在国会质询时，也只是反复强调"能源安全是政 府优先事项"，始终不给出明确答案。 表面上，美印协议看似美国用关税杠杆成功拉拢了印度，但暗地里，印度 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a cautious view on various commodities, with some marked as "cautiously bearish" and others as "cautiously bullish". For example, crude oil, methanol, etc., are marked as "cautiously bearish", while gold, silver, etc., are marked as "cautiously bullish" [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes multiple aspects including economic data, geopolitical events, and market trends. It mentions that the US is at a critical stage of its economic cycle, and the global market is affected by various factors such as US employment data, geopolitical negotiations, and supply - demand changes in different industries [1][5]. - In the commodity market, different commodities have different trends. For example, precious metals are expected to return to an upward trend in the long - term, while the short - term is affected by data announcements; the crude oil market is influenced by geopolitical negotiations and supply changes [2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Chief Comment - US API crude oil inventory increased by 13.4 million barrels last week. US soybean export inspection volume decreased by 14% week - on - week but increased by 3% year - on - year. As of February 5, 2026, the weekly US soybean export inspection volume was 1,136,099 tons. The total US soybean export inspection volume in the 2025/26 season reached 23,136,299 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 34.4%. The US non - farm employment data to be released this Wednesday is expected to show an increase of 69,000 in non - farm employment in January, with the unemployment rate remaining at 4.4%. Futures markets mostly rose at night, with propylene up over 2% and glass down over 1% [1]. 2. Key Varieties Precious Metals - Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. The market is waiting for US employment and inflation data, which may affect subsequent interest rate cut expectations. After a sharp rise in January, precious metals had a significant shock. In the long - term, factors such as de - dollarization, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases still support the upward trend of gold. The central bank of China has increased its gold holdings for 15 consecutive months. It is recommended to wait and see for silver due to its high volatility and relatively low gold - silver ratio [2]. Crude Oil - SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran and the US held indirect negotiations in Muscat. The negotiation started well, and both sides agreed to continue. Kazakhstan's oil export volume in February may drop by up to 35% due to the slow recovery of the Tengiz oil field [3]. Stock Index - US stock indexes were mixed. The stock index rose slightly the previous trading day, with the media sector leading the rise and the real estate sector leading the fall. The market turnover was 2.12 trillion yuan. The margin trading balance increased by 523 million yuan on February 9. In February, the market is expected to continue the phased upward trend, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [3]. 3. Main News of the Day International News - Ray Dalio warned that the US is at the "fifth stage" of the imperial cycle, on the verge of order collapse and conflict. He suggested that gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio [5]. Domestic News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations [6]. Industry News - An article in Qiushi emphasized the importance of cultivating future industries for high - quality development [7]. 4. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report provides the daily returns of various overseas markets on February 9 and 10, including the S&P 500, European STOXX50, etc. Some indexes and commodities rose, while others fell [8]. 5. Morning Comments on Main Varieties Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index is expected to continue the phased upward trend in February, but the potential impact of overseas market fluctuations during the Spring Festival should be noted [9]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The market expects the new Fed chairman's policy to be a combination of interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction. The bond futures price is expected to stabilize, and cautious operation is recommended before the Spring Festival [10][11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: SC crude oil rose 0.21% at night. Iran - US negotiations started well, and Kazakhstan's oil export volume may decline [12]. - **Methanol**: Methanol fell 0.09% at night. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants increased, and the methanol inventory in coastal areas decreased [13]. - **Natural Rubber**: Natural rubber rebounded slightly. The domestic production area is in the off - season, and the supply elasticity is weak. The demand side supports the stable operation of all - steel tire production. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the Spring Festival [14]. - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefin futures rebounded slightly. The market focuses on supply improvement and macro factors. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [15]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass futures declined, and soda ash futures also fell. The glass supply - demand situation is gradually improving, and the supply of soda ash is slightly shrinking. It is recommended to control positions before the Spring Festival [16]. - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals are in a consolidation phase. They are affected by US data announcements. In the long - term, gold is expected to rise, and it is recommended to wait and see for silver [17]. - **Copper**: Copper prices rose 0.17% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the copper price may enter an adjustment phase [18]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rose 0.08% at night. The zinc concentrate processing fee decreased, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [19]. - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum market was flat at night. The aluminum production rate is high, but the downstream demand is weakening, and the inventory is accumulating. In the long - term, low inventory and stable demand support the price [20]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production and production plan of lithium carbonate decreased, and the inventory decreased. The market sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to trading opportunities after volatility reduction [21]. Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke rebounded at night. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand growth is limited. After the Spring Festival, factors such as iron - making production, mine operation, and import policies should be noted [22]. - **Steel**: Steel production decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The construction downstream demand is weakening. The steel market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [23]. - **Iron Ore**: The global iron ore shipment increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to rise. The steel mill's demand for iron ore is expected to be based on on - demand replenishment, and the iron ore price is expected to be weak and volatile [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal rose at night. The Brazilian soybean harvest is progressing, and the US soybean price is under pressure. The domestic soybean meal price is also affected by high inventory and sufficient supply expectations [25]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats were weak at night. The palm oil inventory in Malaysia decreased, and the production decreased. The palm oil price is supported by inventory reduction but restricted by crude oil prices. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [26][27]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price continued to fluctuate. The global sugar supply is in an oversupply situation, and the domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally. The sugar price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [28]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price maintained a range - bound trend. The textile factory's restocking is coming to an end, and the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of direct subsidy policies [29]. - **Hogs**: The hog futures market continued to be weak. The supply in the spot market exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be under pressure in the short - term [30]. Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 4.57%. The spot freight rate in February is relatively stable, and the market is expected to be volatile before the Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the impact of export demand and price increase letters should be noted [31].

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 | 股指期货：节前保持窄幅波动 3 | | --- | | 国债期货：节前交投热度有所下降 4 | 银河期货研究所 2026 年 2 月 11 日 0 / 46 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 蛋白粕：月度供需报告利多有限 市场震荡运行 5 | | --- | | 白糖：国际糖价下跌 预计国内价格略强 5 | | 油脂板块：油脂维持宽幅震荡 6 | | 玉米/玉米淀粉：产区现货稳定，盘面高位震荡 7 | | 生猪：出栏压力增加 现货继续下行 8 | | 花生：花生现货稳定，花生盘面窄幅震荡 9 | | 鸡蛋：节前备货进入尾声 蛋价有所下跌 10 | | 苹果：节前走货尚可，苹果价格坚挺 11 | | 棉花-棉纱：基本面变化不大 棉价有所支撑 12 | | 钢材：需求延续下滑，钢价震荡运行 13 | | --- | | 双焦：煤矿陆续放假，现货成交趋于冷清 13 | | 铁矿：基本面持续弱化，矿价偏弱运行 14 | | 铁合金：长假临近，多单逢高止盈 15 | | 金银：市场静待非农数据 金银窄幅波动 16 | | --- | | 铂钯：非农数据公布前 贵金属市场波动收窄 17 | ...