Consumption - In April, the year-on-year growth rate of social retail sales decreased to 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a decline in retail sales of above-limit goods, which fell by 2.0 percentage points to 6.6%[2] - The growth rate of essential consumption remains stable, with grain and oil food maintaining a high growth rate of 14.0%[2] - The sales growth of automobiles and communication equipment saw significant declines, with automobiles down 4.8% to 0.7% and communication equipment down 8.7% to 19.9%[2] Investment - Fixed asset investment in April showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points to 3.6%[3] - The decline in investment is attributed to the nearing end of the equipment update cycle, with equipment purchases down 3.1 percentage points to 16.7%[3] - Manufacturing investment growth decreased by 1.1 percentage points to 8.1%, while public utility investment growth fell by 2.2 percentage points to 24.3%[3] Real Estate - Real estate development investment saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 10.3%, worsening from a previous decline of 9.9%[4] - The supply side is improving, with the growth rate of residential construction falling by 25.8%, leading to a marginal stabilization of housing prices[4] - The sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 2.8%, indicating a phase of reduced release of pent-up demand[4] Industrial Production - The industrial added value in April showed a year-on-year growth of 6.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from March[5] - Manufacturing production saw a marginal decline of 0.8 percentage points to 7.1%, with significant drops in sectors like mining and public utilities[5] - The production of automobiles and computer communications also experienced notable declines, each down 2.3 percentage points[5] Summary - The economy is transitioning from a phase of "old forces" declining to "new forces" gaining momentum, with a need to closely monitor incremental policy developments[4] - Short-term economic performance is expected to remain stable in the second quarter, influenced by export dynamics and the effectiveness of new policies to mitigate external demand risks[4]

Core Viewpoint - The April economic data indicates a mixed performance in China's economy, with strong industrial production and consumption, but a decline in investment and real estate sectors [1][13]. Demand Side - April's external demand faced challenges due to reciprocal tariffs, leading to a significant drop in exports to the US; however, transshipment trade helped maintain export resilience [1][2]. - Internal demand showed a decline in both investment and consumption, although consumption remained at a high level; investment was dragged down by the real estate and manufacturing sectors [1][7]. Production Side - Industrial production maintained a high level, with April's industrial value-added growth rate dropping to 6.1%, supported by equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing [3][5]. - The service sector's production index slightly decreased, but still benefited from low base effects and consumption recovery [3]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment growth rate fell by 0.8 percentage points to 3.5%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [7]. - High-tech industry investments performed well, particularly in information services and computer manufacturing, with year-on-year growth rates of 40.6% and 28.9% respectively [7]. Consumption Patterns - Retail sales growth rate decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 5.1%, while service retail sales showed an upward trend, particularly in tourism-related sectors [9]. - Essential consumer goods saw a decline in growth, while sectors benefiting from trade-in programs performed strongly [9]. Real Estate Market - Real estate sales area growth rate worsened to -2.1%, with new construction area also declining significantly [11]. - Despite the drop in sales volume, housing prices continued to rise, with the decline in new and second-hand housing prices narrowing [11]. Employment and External Factors - The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, indicating a steady employment situation despite external challenges [13]. - Future export performance may exceed expectations due to potential European recovery, although this could lead to a more cautious domestic policy response [13].

Core Viewpoints - The economy is transitioning from a phase of "old forces" declining to "new forces" gaining momentum, indicating a structural shift in economic dynamics [2][4][41] Consumption - In April, the year-on-year growth of social retail sales decreased to 5.1%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to a slowdown in retail sales of goods above a certain threshold [10][64] - The consumption of essential goods remains stable, with food and oil products showing a growth of 14.0% year-on-year [2][10] - The slowdown in the "old-for-new" policy has negatively impacted the sales of automobiles and communication equipment, while home appliances continue to perform well [2][10] Investment - Fixed asset investment showed weakness in April, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 4.0%, and a month-on-month decline of 0.8 percentage points to 3.6% [2][16] - The decline in investment is attributed to the nearing end of the equipment renewal cycle, affecting manufacturing and public utility investments [2][16] - Service sector investment remains resilient, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in April, particularly in cultural and entertainment sectors [3][23] Real Estate - The supply issues in the real estate sector are improving, but the release of pent-up demand is entering a "decline phase" [3][26] - In April, real estate investment fell by 11.3% year-on-year, reflecting a decrease in existing projects [3][26] - The construction completion rate has significantly dropped, with a year-on-year decline of 25.8% in April, leading to a stabilization in housing prices [3][26] Industrial Production - Industrial production showed a decline, with the industrial added value year-on-year growth at 6.1%, down 1.6 percentage points from March [5][36] - Manufacturing production also experienced a marginal decline, with significant drops in sectors related to real estate and consumer goods [36][42] Employment - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in April, indicating improved employment conditions for both migrant and local populations [71]

Core Viewpoint - The fixed asset investment in China for January to April 2025 shows a year-on-year growth of 4.0%, with private investment growing only 0.2%, indicating a mixed recovery in investment across different sectors and regions [1][2]. Investment Overview - Total fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 14,702.4 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [1][2]. - The industrial investment grew by 11.7%, with mining investment increasing by 6.3% and manufacturing investment by 8.8% [1][2]. - The service sector experienced a decline of 0.2% in investment, highlighting challenges in this area [1][2]. Sector Analysis - First industry investment was 297.1 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year [1][2]. - Second industry investment totaled 51,778 billion yuan, with notable growth in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply at 25.5% [1][2]. - Third industry infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water) grew by 5.8%, with water management investment surging by 30.7% [1][2]. Regional Investment Trends - Eastern region investment grew by 1.3%, while the central region saw a 4.8% increase, and the western region grew by 5.3% [1][2]. - The northeastern region had the highest growth at 7.6%, indicating a regional disparity in investment performance [1][2]. Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprises' fixed asset investment increased by 3.9%, while investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises rose by 9.2% [1][2]. - Foreign enterprises, however, saw a significant decline in investment by 11.4%, reflecting potential challenges in attracting foreign capital [1][2].

Core Viewpoint - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, indicating a stable growth trend in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Industrial Growth - In April, the industrial added value increased by 0.22% month-on-month, and from January to April, it grew by 6.4% year-on-year [1] - By sector, mining increased by 5.7%, manufacturing by 6.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 2.1% in April [1] - By ownership type, state-controlled enterprises grew by 2.9%, joint-stock enterprises by 6.6%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 3.9%, and private enterprises by 6.7% [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - In April, 36 out of 41 major industries reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in coal mining (6.3%), petroleum and natural gas extraction (4.3%), and food processing (7.3%) [2] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a growth of 9.2%, while the railway, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment manufacturing surged by 17.6% [2] - The production of 623 industrial products showed that 341 products had a year-on-year increase, including steel (12.509 million tons, +6.6%) and automobiles (2.604 million units, +8.5%) [2] Group 3: Sales and Exports - The product sales rate for large-scale industrial enterprises was 97.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [3][5] - The export delivery value reached 1.2469 trillion yuan, reflecting a nominal growth of 0.9% year-on-year [3][5]

Core Insights - The 2025 Global Investor Conference in Shenzhen focuses on "New Quality Productivity and Investment Opportunities in China" highlighting the importance of innovation and technology in traditional industries [1][3] - Gary Monaghan emphasizes that traditional industrial companies can unlock significant investment opportunities by enhancing operational efficiency through technology [3] Group 1: Traditional Industries and Investment Opportunities - Traditional industries must overcome bottlenecks and identify new growth points to remain competitive in the transition to new quality productivity [3] - Mining and resource extraction companies, often overlooked, are crucial for supplying essential minerals like copper, which are necessary for technological advancements [3] - The competition in the mining sector is relatively low, leading to potentially high profit margins for companies that provide these critical resources [3] Group 2: Energy Infrastructure and Supply Chain - The development of new quality productivity industries requires substantial energy, highlighting the need for upgrades in energy infrastructure such as power grids and substations [3] - Traditional sectors related to energy transmission and storage may not attract as much attention as AI but represent significant investment opportunities if approached with the right valuation [3] - The focus on energy infrastructure is essential for transporting renewable energy sources, such as solar power, from production sites to urban centers like Shenzhen [3]

Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, China's GDP reached 31.8758 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.2%[3] - The industrial added value grew by 6.5% year-on-year, while the service sector's added value increased by 5.3%[4] - Fixed asset investment rose by 4.2% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment growing by 5.8%[16][20] Trade and Exports - Total goods trade in Q1 2025 was 10.3 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.3%, with exports at 6.13 trillion yuan, up 6.9%[28] - The export of mechanical and electrical products reached 5.29 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%[28] - The share of domestic brand exports increased to 22.8%, reflecting a 10.2% growth in this segment[28] Price Stability - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with food prices dropping by 1.5%[31] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.3% year-on-year, indicating a slowdown in the decline compared to previous quarters[33] Employment and Fiscal Policy - The urban survey unemployment rate averaged 5.3% in Q1 2025, showing stability in the job market[38] - National general public budget revenue was 6.0 trillion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year, while expenditures increased by 4.2% to 7.3 trillion yuan[40]

4 月份，全国服务业生产指数同比增长 6.0% 。分行业看，信息传输、软件和信息技术服务业，租 赁和商务服务业，批发和零售业，金融业生产指数同比分别增长 10.4% 、 8.9% 、 6.8% 、 6.1% ，分别快于服务业生产指数 4.4 、 2.9 、 0.8 、 0.1 个百分点。 1-4 月份，全国服务业生 产指数同比增长 5.9% 。 1-3 月份，规模以上服务业企业营业收入同比增长 7.0% 。 4 月份，服 务业商务活动指数为 50.1% ，服务业业务活动预期指数为 56.4% 。其中，航空运输、电信广播电 视及卫星传输服务、互联网软件及信息技术服务、保险等行业商务活动指数位于 55.0% 以上较高景 气区间。 2025.05. 19 本文字数：2715，阅读时长大约4.5分钟 来源丨 国家统计局网站 4 月份，面对外部冲击影响加大、内部困难挑战叠加的复杂局面，在以习近平同志为核心的党中央坚 强领导下，各地区各部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院决策部署，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，完整准 确全面贯彻新发展理念，加快构建新发展格局，扎实推动高质量发展，加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观 政策，有力有效应对外部冲击 ...

Group 1: Industrial Production - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year and 0.22% month-on-month [1] - The manufacturing sector saw a growth of 6.6%, while the equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors grew by 9.8% and 10.0% respectively, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.7 and 3.9 percentage points [1] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles increased by 60.7%, 51.5%, and 38.9% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Service Sector - In April, the service sector production index grew by 6.0% year-on-year, with significant contributions from information transmission, software, and IT services, which increased by 10.4% [2] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.1%, indicating stable growth, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.4%, suggesting positive future outlook [2] - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.0% year-on-year in the first quarter [2] Group 3: Consumer Market - In April, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 37,174 billion yuan, growing by 5.1% year-on-year [2] - The online retail sales amounted to 47,419 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 24.3% of total retail sales [2] - The sales of household appliances and cultural office supplies saw significant increases of 38.8% and 33.5% respectively due to the "trade-in" policy [2] Group 4: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to April, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 147,024 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.0% [3] - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.8%, while real estate development investment declined by 10.3% [3] - Investment in high-tech industries such as information services and computer manufacturing saw substantial increases of 40.6% and 28.9% respectively [3]

Core Insights - In April, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year-on-year, with a month-on-month growth of 0.22% [1]. - From January to April, the industrial added value grew by 6.4% year-on-year [1]. Group 1: Industrial Growth by Sector - In April, the mining industry saw a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, manufacturing grew by 6.6%, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water increased by 2.1% [3]. - Among 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in added value in April [4]. Group 2: Economic Type Performance - In April, state-controlled enterprises' added value grew by 2.9%, while joint-stock enterprises increased by 6.6%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises by 3.9%, and private enterprises by 6.7% [4][7]. - High-tech manufacturing within the manufacturing sector experienced a growth rate of 10.0% in April [7]. Group 3: Key Industry Performance - Notable growth in specific industries includes coal mining and washing at 6.3%, petroleum and natural gas extraction at 4.3%, and food processing at 7.3% [4]. - The automotive manufacturing sector grew by 9.2%, with a significant increase in new energy vehicles at 38.9% [5][10]. Group 4: Product Output and Sales - In April, out of 623 industrial products, 341 saw a year-on-year increase in output, including steel at 12,509 million tons (up 6.6%) and cement at 16,530 million tons (down 5.3%) [5][10]. - The product sales rate for industrial enterprises above designated size was 97.2%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points year-on-year [6][10]. Group 5: Export Performance - The export delivery value of industrial enterprises reached 12,469 billion yuan, reflecting a nominal year-on-year growth of 0.9% [6][10].