研究院 农产品组 研究员 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 010-64405663 baixuyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 010-64405663 xuejunyuan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03114096 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 期货研究报告|养殖周报 2025-04-27 二次育肥进场减缓，生猪价格维持震荡 策略摘要 生猪观点 ■ 市场分析 供应端来看，本周集团出栏较上周保持平稳，养殖端二次育肥的需求目前有所下降， 体重偏小的标猪出栏量也同步减少，年后入场的二次育肥的已经到了出栏窗口期，叠 加五一节的备货需求，预计下周出栏会呈现一定的增加趋势。 消费端来看，本周屠宰端的开工保持平稳，没有较大的变化。同时冻品库存的增长也 非常缓慢，价格偏高导致冻品和二育的需求无法快速增长。五一节日即将来临，需要 重点关注五一节的备货情况，可能给需求端带来一定的提振作用。 综合来看，短期来看，短期来看二次育肥的滚动入场和养户的惜售心态仍在延续，下 周五一前的备货需求也 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 gszqdatemark 2025 04 26 年 月 日 正邦科技（002157.SZ） 产能加速恢复，主业实现盈利 公司公告 2024 年度报告和 2025 年第一季度报告。2024 年公司实现收 入88.7亿元，同比增长26.86%；归母净利润2.16亿元，同比减少97.46%； 扣非归母净利润-3.33 亿元，同比增长 93.19%。2025 年第一季度公司实 现收入 30.02 亿元，同比增长 108.22%；归母净利润 1.71 亿元，同比增 长 449.58%；扣非归母净利润 0.26 亿元，同比增长 108.3%。 产能恢复主业实现盈利，负债清偿费用下降。拆分 2025 年第一季度业绩 来看，公司非经常性损益（主要为债务重组损益）贡献 1.4 亿元、减值及 资产处置影响-1.6 亿元，加回少损影响的 0.6 亿元，公司主营业务实现的 利润在 1.3 亿元，伴随产能恢复，主业已恢复盈利能力，同时公司负债率 持续下降，2025 年一季度资产负债率 44.9%，环比下降 1.5pct；财务费 用率 1.46%，较 2023 年 11.3%水平明显下降。 生猪出栏量稳步提升 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth in pig sales and a decrease in costs, leading to strong performance in Q1 2025. Revenue reached 36.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.49 billion yuan, up 288.79% [3][4] - The company maintains its original profit forecast, expecting net profits of 24.06 billion yuan, 28.73 billion yuan, and 37.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.40 yuan, 5.26 yuan, and 6.94 yuan [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 33.22 billion yuan from pig farming, with sales of 22.66 million pigs, marking a 41.52% increase. The total cost of pig farming decreased to 12.5 yuan/kg in March 2025, with an annual target of 12 yuan/kg [4][5] - The company has a sufficient breeding stock, with 3.485 million breeding sows as of March 2025, and a survival rate of 82%-83% for pigs [4] - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 59.20%, with cash reserves of 23.566 billion yuan, indicating strong financial health [5] Valuation Metrics - The company's projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 9.1, 7.6, and 5.8 respectively, suggesting attractive valuation levels [3][8] - The expected revenue growth rates for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 6.6%, 6.7%, and 10.5% respectively, indicating a positive growth outlook [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has demonstrated significant growth in pig sales and a decrease in costs, leading to strong performance in the first quarter of 2025. The revenue for Q1 2025 reached 36.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.26%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.49 billion yuan, up 288.79% [3][4] - The company maintains its original profit forecast, expecting net profits of 24.06 billion yuan, 28.73 billion yuan, and 37.93 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 4.40 yuan, 5.26 yuan, and 6.94 yuan [3][4] Financial Performance Summary - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 33.22 billion yuan from pig farming, with sales of 22.66 million pigs, marking a 41.52% increase. The total cost of pig farming for the first three months was 13.1, 12.9, and 12.5 yuan per kilogram, with an annual target of 12 yuan per kilogram [4][5] - The company has a sufficient breeding stock, with 3.485 million breeding sows as of March 2025, and a survival rate of 82%-83% for pigs [4] - The company's asset-liability ratio has decreased to 59.20%, with cash reserves of 23.566 billion yuan, indicating strong financial health [5] - The slaughtering business saw a significant increase, with 5.32 million pigs slaughtered in Q1 2025, an 81% increase, and the capacity utilization rate rising to 73% [5] Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 147.02 billion yuan, 156.81 billion yuan, and 173.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 24.06 billion yuan, 28.73 billion yuan, and 37.93 billion yuan [7][8] - The projected EPS for the next three years is expected to grow from 4.40 yuan in 2025 to 6.94 yuan in 2027, with a corresponding P/E ratio decreasing from 9.1 to 5.8 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][10]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant cost improvements and strong performance in its financial results, with a total revenue of 104.92 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.68%, and a net profit of 9.23 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [4][5]. - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 24.33 billion yuan, up 11.37% year-on-year, with a net profit of 2.00 billion yuan, indicating substantial year-on-year improvement [4][5]. - The company has a leading market share in the poultry sector, with chicken sales reaching 1.208 billion birds in 2024, accounting for 8.41% of the national total, while pork sales amounted to 30.182 million heads, representing 4.30% of the national total [5][6]. - The report highlights a rapid decline in breeding costs, with the comprehensive cost of pig farming dropping to approximately 6.3 yuan per jin, and the cost of chicken farming decreasing to 5.6 yuan per jin [5][6]. Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 104.32 billion yuan, 106.65 billion yuan, and 124.10 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding net profits of 9.53 billion yuan, 8.33 billion yuan, and 15.40 billion yuan [9][10]. - The report anticipates a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 12, 13, and 7 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [9][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance relative to the market index [8][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a notable increase in revenue and a return to profitability in 2024. The revenue for 2024 reached 104.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 16.64%, and the net profit attributable to shareholders was 9.23 billion yuan, marking a turnaround from losses [5][6]. - The company benefits from a dual business model in pig and chicken farming, which provides a buffer against industry downturns. The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 1.12 yuan, 1.66 yuan, and 2.35 yuan respectively, reflecting strong growth potential [8][10]. Company Overview - The latest closing price of the company's stock is 16.87 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 112.3 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 88.3 billion yuan. The company has a total share capital of 6.654 billion shares, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 53.1% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.12 [4][5]. - The largest shareholder is Wen Pengcheng, indicating a concentrated ownership structure [4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the pig farming segment generated revenue of 64.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.71%. The company achieved a stable increase in pig output, with 30.18 million pigs sold in 2024, up 14.93% from the previous year [6]. - The chicken farming segment reported revenue of 35.72 billion yuan in 2024, a slight decline of 2.58%. Despite lower prices, the segment remained profitable due to reduced costs [7]. - The company's financial health has improved, with a decrease in the debt-to-asset ratio from 53.14% in 2024 to 51.45% in Q1 2025 [7]. Earnings Forecast - The report projects a decline in revenue for 2025 to 102.41 billion yuan, followed by a recovery in subsequent years, with expected revenues of 110.49 billion yuan in 2026 and 133.81 billion yuan in 2027. The net profit is expected to decrease to 7.44 billion yuan in 2025 but rebound to 11.07 billion yuan in 2026 and 15.63 billion yuan in 2027 [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [3][6]. Core Insights - The company demonstrates a strong competitive advantage in a declining profit environment for the industry, achieving higher profitability than the industry average [1][36]. - The company has established a self-sufficient breeding system, enhancing its market position and expected performance [2]. - The processing business is improving, with a focus on brand value enhancement and a dual-channel strategy [3]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is the largest white feather chicken producer in Asia, with a complete supply chain covering feed processing, breeding, incubation, and meat processing [14]. Industry Context - The white feather chicken accounts for approximately 67% of the domestic chicken market, with slaughter volumes reaching 8.55 billion in 2024, a 3.6% increase year-on-year [28]. Profitability and Cost Management - The company has maintained a higher single-bird profit than the industry, with an estimated profit of 0.6 yuan per bird in 2024, despite overall industry profit declines [1][36]. - The company's chicken meat gross cost is projected at 8,939 yuan per ton in 2024, a 14% decrease year-on-year, reflecting effective cost management strategies [40][42]. Market Position and Expansion - The company has secured long-term strategic partnerships with major clients like Yum China and McDonald's, ensuring stable pricing and demand [1][3]. - Since 2018, the company has acquired quality assets, increasing its breeding capacity by 165 million birds and food processing capacity by 90,000 tons [1]. Breeding and Genetic Control - The company has achieved 100% self-sufficiency in breeding parent stock since 2019, with plans to increase its market share to 40% by the end of 2024, potentially adding 800 million yuan to its performance [2]. Processing Business Development - The company's food business is projected to generate 8.249 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, with a 3.7% year-on-year growth, although net profit is expected to decrease by 7% [3]. - The company is focusing on B2B and B2C segments, with B2B accounting for 79% of revenue and a strong emphasis on brand value enhancement [3]. Financial Projections - The company expects net profits of 993 million yuan, 1.06 billion yuan, and 1.21 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 37.1%, 6.8%, and 13.8% [3][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall allocation in the agricultural sector is currently at a low level, below the standard allocation ratio, indicating potential investment opportunities in leading companies and growth stocks within the breeding sector [3][18] - The breeding sector is experiencing a reduction in allocation, while the planting sector shows slight decreases, with the overall heavy allocation in the agricultural sector being the lowest in three years [1][10] Summary by Sections Heavy Allocation Analysis - As of Q1 2025, the heavy allocation in the agricultural sector is 0.92%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The heavy allocation in the breeding industry is 0.45%, down 0.06 percentage points from the previous quarter and 0.65 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a lack of clear direction in the sector [13] Company-Specific Allocation Changes - Among the top 15 heavy allocation stocks, most companies have reduced their allocations, with only Zhongchong Co., Ltd. increasing by approximately 0.03 percentage points [2][14] - The top five stocks with increased allocations include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (+7.03%), Ruipubio (+1.24%), and Suqian Agricultural Development (+1.02%) [2][16] Investment Recommendations - For the breeding sector, focus on leading stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group, as well as yellow chicken stocks like Lihua Co., Ltd. [3][18] - In the breeding support sector, attention should be given to leading companies like Haida Group and Bangji Technology, which may benefit from the restructuring of the market [3][18] - The planting sector shows strong profitability stability, with recommendations to focus on companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [3][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The overall allocation in the agricultural sector is currently low, below the standard allocation level, indicating potential investment opportunities in leading companies as costs decrease and performance improves [3][18] - The report highlights a significant reduction in heavy allocations in the breeding sector, while other segments show minor changes [10][13] Summary by Sections Heavy Allocation Analysis - As of Q1 2025, the heavy allocation in the agricultural sector is 0.92%, a decrease of 0.08 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 0.74 percentage points year-on-year [10][11] - The breeding industry accounts for 0.45% of heavy allocations, down 0.06 percentage points from the previous quarter [13][14] Company-Specific Changes - Among the top 15 heavy allocation stocks, most companies have reduced their allocations, with only Zhongchong Co., Ltd. increasing by approximately 0.03 percentage points [2][14] - The top five stocks with increased allocations include Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (+7.03%) and Ruipu Bio (+1.24%), while the top five with decreased allocations include Quanyin High-Tech (-2.37%) and Lihua Co., Ltd. (-2.24%) [2][15][16] Investment Recommendations - For the breeding sector, focus on leading companies like Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group, as well as companies related to yellow chickens like Lihua Co., Ltd. [3][18] - In the breeding support sector, attention should be given to leading companies such as Haida Group and Bangji Technology [3][18] - The planting sector shows strong profitability stability, with recommendations for companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang Group [3][18]

关税战打了两周，虽有反复，但对抗的基调没有改变，所谓进口关税豁免，和关税暂缓实施，并不是缓和信号，懂王一天一个样，根本看不到关税战马上 会结束的样子。中国反制进口美国商品的关税能执行，肯定不是乱来的，也至少要做好维持一段时间的准备。 毕竟国际对抗不是过家家，在美国进口关税执行还不太顺利之际，这边中国的进口关税执行已经落地。 除了已经在国产替代风口上几年的芯片股，有更多的产业受此轮进口关税影响。农业这次受的影响也颇大，美国出口中国最多的是农产品。巨额关税后， 这一部分的进口量完全消失，成本上升在所难免，因此，国内作物将有一定量价齐升的机会，同时，大豆这类基础作物的价格上涨，将全面向下游包括 油、养殖行业蔓延。 因此，在关税过后的两周内，内需方向的股票都迎来一定炒作，农林牧渔行业罕见地实现了超额收益。 农林牧渔行业，不景气已有很长时间，股价低迷，行业也远没有到景气过热的阶段，进口关税带动的预期也是偏乐观的，大涨的背后，也不失为合理的回 归，那么，这个行业是否就此开启了新的向上周期呢？ 一、关税的影响路径 这次加全面关税，大家都很突然，短短时间内就从54%加到124%，虽说，农产品这种美国的优势产品，本身就已经有一 ...