市场风高浪急，交易要逆水行舟。 文 丨 陈晶 制图 丨 黄帧昕 编辑 丨 王姗姗 70 后的洪灏留长发、戴圆眼镜、常系一条红色领带，配合总是生无可恋的表情，风格自成一派。 经 历了过去一周全球资本市场的风云突变，他对接下来中国资产的价格走势判断继续保持谨慎乐观。 4 月 2 日特朗普对外宣布美国新的关税政策并定于 4 月 9 日全面生效，数十年的全球贸易链条被斩 断、世界性经济衰退的警报被拉响，将资本市场推入数十年不遇的恐慌。美股经历多日暴跌，市场最 高蒸发超 6.5 万亿美元。 对此，现任华福国际（香港）金融控股有限公司 CEO 的洪灏已数次提醒投资者，面对当下无序的暴 跌需稍安勿躁，不要轻易尝试参与任何的美股反弹。 本周，不确定性仍在进一步加剧。 4 月 7 日，中国对美国表态坚决反制后的第一个交易日，A 股和港 股经历了 "黑色星期一" 的冲击——全市场收盘跌停个股逾 2900 只，A 股总市值一天蒸发 7.6 万亿 元，港股则遭遇其历史上第二大单日暴跌。4 月 8 日，美国报复性宣布对中国输美商品征收 "对等关 税" 的税率由 34 % 提高至 84 %。随后在 4 月 9 日，中国政府回击，反制进一 ...

这个周末很多股民都过的很忐忑，担心周一行情受贸易战冲击出现暴跌。 我们对美出口占比15%，加上转口贸易可能在17-18%，这部分贸易被关税壁垒挤压后，中国很大概率会 在国内执行进一步的刺激政策来对冲利空，央行择机降准降息择了那么久，估计下周要落地了。但仅仅 降准降息是不够的，我猜后续会有更大规模的政府投资，和更直接的消费刺激。 所以消费板块有机会异军突起，在这种特殊的环境下成为a股的新热点，以及那些公司主营全部来自国 内市场的公司，理论上都会有跑赢大盘的表现。比如周四涨幅最高的是养殖板块，基本是内销市场。 中国自身的消费规模占gdp大约是4成，世界上其它国家的平均水平是在6成左右。之所以我们的比例偏 低，不是因为我们的消费规模小，事实上中国已经是连续十余年的全球第二大消费市场，但问题是我们 的生产能力更惊人，全球断层领先。 目前看形势确实不太好，在中国宣布关税反制措施后，新加坡a50期指大概比周四下午3点的位置下跌了 4%，周五晚上纳斯达克中国金龙指数下跌8.87%，种种迹象表明明天早上开盘会是一个大幅跳空低开， 我判断大概在-2%到-3%区间。 低开-2%的话反弹空间其实不大的，因为稍微向上涨涨就会面临33 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the power equipment industry [1]. Core Views - The report emphasizes that leading companies in the power equipment sector are maintaining their competitive advantages despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [1]. Industry Trends - The power equipment sector has seen a decline in various segments, with electrical equipment down by 3.51%, lithium batteries and new energy vehicles both down by 2.37%, and photovoltaic down by 5.75% [4]. - The report highlights significant financing activities in the humanoid robot sector, with Agility raising $400 million for production expansion and other AI companies completing substantial funding rounds [4]. - The report notes that the demand for energy storage is increasing, with the National Development and Reform Commission releasing guidelines for green low-carbon technology demonstration projects [4]. Company Performance - BYD reported a production of 395,000 new energy vehicles in March 2025, with sales of 377,000 vehicles, including 73,000 sold overseas [4]. - Tongwei Co. has repurchased 100 million shares, accounting for 2.3% of its total share capital, to support employee stock ownership plans [4]. - The report provides detailed financial forecasts for several companies, indicating expected revenue and net profit growth for 2024 and 2025 [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The report identifies several key sectors for investment, including humanoid robots, energy storage, electric vehicles, industrial control, photovoltaic, wind power, and the power grid [4]. - It highlights the expected compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for global energy storage installations from 2023 to 2025 to be between 40% and 50% [4]. - The report recommends specific companies within these sectors, such as CATL, BYD, and Sunshine Power, citing their strong market positions and growth potential [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the power equipment industry [1]. Core Views - The leading companies in the power equipment sector are expected to maintain their competitive advantages despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs [1]. - The report highlights significant growth opportunities in the robotics, energy storage, electric vehicle, industrial control, photovoltaic, wind power, and grid sectors, driven by technological advancements and market demand [4][10]. Industry Trends - The power equipment sector has shown varied performance, with electric equipment down 3.51%, lithium batteries down 2.37%, and photovoltaic down 5.75% [4]. - The report notes a strong recovery in electric vehicle sales, with major manufacturers reporting significant year-on-year growth [29]. - The energy storage market is experiencing rapid growth, particularly in the U.S., with a projected CAGR of 40-50% from 2023 to 2025 [9][11]. Company Highlights - Companies such as CATL, BYD, and Sungrow are highlighted as key players with strong growth potential in their respective segments [6][7]. - The report emphasizes the importance of technological innovation and market positioning for companies like Tesla and their impact on the robotics sector [10]. - Specific companies are recommended for investment based on their market leadership and growth prospects, including CATL, BYD, and others in the energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a bullish outlook on the robotics sector, anticipating a significant increase in production and market penetration [10]. - In the energy storage sector, the report expects continued strong demand in the U.S. and emerging markets, with a focus on leading companies in storage inverters and battery technology [9]. - The electric vehicle market is projected to grow by 25% in 2025, driven by new models and consumer incentives [29].

以下文章来源于快刀财经 ，作者快刀财经编辑部 快刀财经 . 欢迎关注这个洞察商业真相的公号。快刀财经，商业快媒体、思维孵化器、价值试验场和洗欲中心。 作者：朱末 来源：快刀财经（ID：kuaidaocaijing） 在两轮电动车的江湖里，一直流传着"南雅迪、北爱玛"的传说，但除了这两者之外，还曾有 个"另类"凭借一己之力，将整个市场搅得天翻地覆。 它就是小牛，凭借出色的颜值，以及一系列的产品创新，小牛成为中高端"小电驴"厂商的代 表，人称"电驴界爱马仕"。 小牛电动的成绩有多彪悍？成立仅4年就跑进了纳斯达克，被资本市场认可的速度之快，足以 羡煞一众前辈，要知道，比小牛电动早18年进入两轮电动车市场的雅迪，等了20年才挂牌上 市，另一家老牌厂商爱玛，则苦等了22年。 上市后，小牛电动的股价更是涨幅惊人，在2021年冲到了53.38美元的最高点，总市值为41亿 美元。不但如此，这一年，小牛电动的业绩也创了历史新高，营收高达37.05亿元，同比增长 51.56%；净利润达2.26亿元，同比增长33.9%，年销量突破百万辆。 然而，好景不长，随着市场竞争加剧，小牛电动逐渐后劲不足，2022年及2023年连续两年销 量 ...

重阳说 2025年一季度的资本市场在一种叙事突变的氛围中开局。春节期间，Deepseek横空出世，让全球对中国硬 科技的突破刮目相看。电影院里，魔童哪吒大闹东海龙宫，票房连破纪录，闯进全球影史前五且尚未止步。 现实内外的交相辉映极大地提振了投资者的风险偏好，中国资产价值重估成为主流叙事，结构性牛市行情逐 渐清晰，指数攀升至3400点附近，此前重阳看好的泛科技、创新药等板块已经收获了一波涨幅。经过一季度 的修复，展望后市，政策与市场大的演绎方向是什么？结构性机会如何把握？本期"重阳S4"圆桌请出重阳投 资合伙人、战略研究部主管寇志伟以及基金经理谭伟、胡敏、陈奋涛、赵阳来进行一一解答。 "重阳S4"是重阳多位基金经理共同管理同一只基金这一模式的简称。具体来讲， 就是在公司投资决策委员会统 一的策略指引下，同一只基金通过分仓的方式由多位基金经理共同参与管理，每位基金经理在自己的分仓范 围内进行相对独立操作。实践证明，多基金经理共管模式能够帮助打造投资管理超级能力圈，实现投资业绩 可持续、投研能力可迭代、投资风格可复制、管理规模可拓展的目标。多基金经理共管模式起源于美国，已 经成为当今全球资管行业里大多数头部基金普遍 ...

Group 1: Economic Transformation and Innovation - The world is at a crossroads of old and new, with Chinese enterprises accelerating digital and green transformations under the national innovation and reform blueprint, contributing to sustainable development in Asia and globally [1] - The rapid development of AI and new information technologies in China is driving significant changes across various sectors, enhancing productivity and innovation [2] - Traditional industries, such as dairy, are experiencing breakthroughs through innovation, with companies like Yili Group focusing on deep processing technologies and domestic sourcing of raw materials [3] Group 2: Green Economy and Sustainability - Asia's climate vulnerability presents both challenges and opportunities for green transformation, with strong market drivers pushing for change in energy, transportation, and industrial sectors [4] - Companies are urged to integrate green practices into their business models, viewing green transformation as a long-term strategic asset rather than a short-term investment [4] - The importance of creating a green value chain that encompasses both production and consumption is emphasized, with examples of companies like BYD and Uniqlo leading in green innovation [4] Group 3: Global Market Expansion - Geopolitical tensions are increasing global supply chain costs, prompting companies to explore new strategies such as cost control and overseas expansion [6] - Chinese enterprises are encouraged to leverage opportunities from trade agreements like RCEP and the Belt and Road Initiative to establish a second growth line in international markets [6] - The signing of the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement has facilitated investment in clean energy sectors, with companies like LONGi Green Energy contributing to Australia's renewable energy goals [7]

Core Viewpoint - Green Source Group Holdings has officially launched a new strategy focusing on extending into the mobility service sector while maintaining its manufacturing advantages, aiming to provide a comprehensive "all-scenario light mobility solution" [1] Group 1: Strategic Overview - The "all-scenario light mobility solution" is not merely an extension of product lines but a user-centric approach that integrates "hardware + software + services" to enhance user experience across various scenarios [1] - This strategic release signifies Green Source Group Holdings' proactive response to structural changes in the industry, breaking free from traditional competitive constraints [1] Group 2: Market and Product Development - Green Source Group Holdings has developed multiple products to meet diverse user needs, including the LYVA brand for outdoor health mobility [2] - The company is transitioning from a single brand operation to a "main multi-brand composite structure" [2] - The global market expansion is progressing steadily, with products sold in 80 countries and regions, achieving full-scenario application [2] Group 3: Future Plans and Innovations - By 2025, the company plans to leverage its core technological advantages to implement localization strategies in key overseas markets such as Southeast Asia, South Asia, and Latin America, while also targeting the electric bicycle market in Europe and the U.S. [2] - The "all-scenario light mobility solution" represents both a direction for product innovation and a shift from traditional sales models to user service extensions [2] - The company is focused on product iteration and service system optimization to enhance technical accumulation and model exploration, aiming to continuously adapt to changing user demands [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla faces significant challenges in the European electric vehicle market, with a sharp decline in sales and increasing competition from local brands [1][3]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In the first two months of 2025, Tesla's electric vehicle sales in Europe plummeted by 45% year-on-year, selling only 25,852 units [3]. - The Model Y, despite being the best-selling model, saw a drastic sales drop of 53%, with only 14,773 units sold [2][3]. - The Model 3 experienced a 26% decline in sales, ranking sixth, while the high-end models, Model S and Model X, sold a mere 272 units combined [3]. - In contrast, traditional European automakers like Volkswagen and Renault saw significant growth, with Volkswagen's electric vehicle sales increasing by 182% in the same period [3]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - Tesla CEO Elon Musk indicated a strategic shift during an internal meeting, announcing plans to trial production of 5,000 humanoid robots (Optimus) in 2025, aiming for a production capacity of 50,000 units by 2026 [5]. - Musk emphasized that the cost per unit could be reduced to $20,000-$30,000, which is lower than the base price of the Model 3 [5]. - He urged employees not to sell their stocks, highlighting the long-term value of the company despite current market fluctuations [5]. Group 3: Analyst Outlook - Morgan Stanley and UBS have recently downgraded their ratings for Tesla, warning that the company's first-quarter delivery volume may fall to between 355,000 and 367,000 units, representing a potential year-on-year decline of up to 26% [6]. - Analysts cited "demand weakness, intensified competition, and the fading of policy incentives" as key pressures on Tesla [6]. - The consensus forecast for Tesla's Q1 delivery volume is 421,000 units, which is 13% higher than institutional predictions, indicating a risk of significant downward adjustments [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the Chinese stock market, highlighting the impact of various companies' performances, particularly Xiaomi and Tencent, as well as the influence of foreign investment and market sentiment on stock prices [3][4][5][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.1%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.32%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.28%. The total market turnover was 1,507.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 57.3 billion yuan from the previous day [8]. - Over 3,700 stocks in the market fell, with 57 stocks hitting the daily limit up, indicating a weak market sentiment [8]. Group 2: Company Performance - Xiaomi's stock opened lower despite reporting strong earnings, with a year-to-date increase of 60% attributed to subsidy policies and successful product launches. However, UBS downgraded its rating to neutral due to balanced risk and return at the current valuation [3][4]. - Tencent reported a record high capital expenditure of 76.7 billion yuan for 2024, a 221% year-on-year increase, indicating aggressive investment plans [5][12]. Group 3: Foreign Investment Trends - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding 380 billion Hong Kong dollars year-to-date, significantly higher than the same period last year, with a notable increase in net inflows in February [9][10]. - The report indicates that the net inflow of southbound funds reflects a preference for companies with high return on equity (ROE) and growth potential, suggesting a focus on quality earnings and growth characteristics [9][10]. Group 4: Economic and Policy Context - Bank of America Securities expressed caution regarding the Chinese stock market, suggesting that the current market cycle bears similarities to the 2015 boom and bust, with a potential for significant corrections [4][5]. - The article also mentions government initiatives to support the electric vehicle sector, including subsidies for new energy buses and battery replacements, which could impact related companies positively [14].