研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月19日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.8个百分点至27.2%，较去年同期高了0.2个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯 数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青 下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌2个百分点至15%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂复产， 供应有所增加，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加6.32%至22.36万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比继续上升， 仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞拉并逮捕马杜罗引发地缘政治局势动荡，与影响国内原油不同，委内瑞拉重油是 国内地炼重要的低价原料，而此次美国军事袭击之下，委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic refined oil retail price is expected to increase for the first time in 2026, with an adjustment window opening on January 20, 2023, due to international crude oil price fluctuations indicating a rise above the adjustment threshold of 50 yuan/ton [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - The current pricing cycle for domestic refined oil has seen international crude oil prices initially rise and then fall, but the average price has increased compared to the previous cycle, with a reference crude oil change rate of 2.01% as of January 16, 2023, suggesting a potential retail price increase of 85 yuan/ton for gasoline and diesel [2][3]. - Analysts predict that the retail price for 92 gasoline and 0 diesel may rise by approximately 0.07 yuan per liter if the adjustment is implemented [2]. Group 2: Market Trends - Recent data indicates that the wholesale prices for both gasoline and diesel have been declining, with 92 gasoline averaging 7279 yuan/ton (down 0.19%) and diesel at 5994 yuan/ton (down 1.54%) as of January 16, 2023 [4]. - The supply side shows an increase in gasoline production while diesel supply is decreasing, leading to a divergence in market trends, with gasoline demand expectations improving but facing inventory accumulation, while diesel demand is weakening due to seasonal factors [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The geopolitical uncertainties continue to influence short-term international crude oil prices, with OPEC+ halting production increases, suggesting ongoing support for oil market supply [4]. - Geopolitical factors remain a primary driver for the international oil market, but their impact is considered short-term and may not alter the overall downward trend in oil prices [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating potential challenges in the oil and gas sector [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Sinopec's main revenue was 21,134.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.69% [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 299.84 billion yuan, down 32.23% year-on-year [2]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring items was 305.52 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.51% year-on-year [2]. - In Q3 2025, the single-quarter main revenue was 7,043.89 billion yuan, a decline of 10.88% year-on-year [2]. - The single-quarter net profit attributable to shareholders was 85.01 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.5% year-on-year [2]. - The single-quarter net profit excluding non-recurring items was 93.37 billion yuan, an increase of 11.35% year-on-year [2]. - The company's debt ratio stood at 54.69%, with investment income of 73.42 billion yuan and financial expenses of 112.5 billion yuan [2]. - The gross profit margin was reported at 15.68% [2]. Market Activity - As of January 19, 2026, Sinopec's stock closed at 5.93 yuan, up 1.54%, with a turnover rate of 0.21% and a trading volume of 1,942,500 hands, amounting to a total transaction value of 1.144 billion yuan [1]. - On January 19, the net inflow of main funds was 75.54 million yuan, accounting for 6.6% of the total transaction value, while retail investors saw a net outflow of 1.22 billion yuan, representing 10.7% of the total transaction value [1]. Analyst Ratings - In the last 90 days, 10 institutions provided ratings for Sinopec, all recommending a buy [3]. - The average target price set by institutions over the past 90 days is 7.53 yuan [3].

每经AI快讯，上海石化1月19日晚间发布业绩预告，经中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司（"公司"） 财务部门初步测算，预计公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31日止归属于母公司股东的净亏损12.89亿 元到15.76亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损；预计归属于母公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净亏损 为人民币12.8亿元到人民币15.64亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损。具体数据将在公司2025年年度报 告中予以披露。2025年国际原油价格总体震荡下行，产品市场需求未有明显改善，公司主要炼化产品毛 利空间缩减，叠加四季度公司生产装置大修影响，商品总量下降，上述原因综合导致公司经营亏损。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——短剧大爆发，吸纳69万人就业！一度送外卖的演员也找到工作：收入还算 可观但太累，剧组常备速效救心丸，拍睡觉戏真能睡着 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 （记者 曾健辉） ...

公司代码：600688 公司简称：上海石化 编号：临 2026-003 产品名称 产量（万吨） 销量（万吨） 销售收入 （人民币千元） 炼油产品 柴油 246.97 244.74 15,479,375 汽油 312.13 312.19 24,656,133 航空煤油 注 1 225.09 131.71 6,427,361 化工产品 对二甲苯 68.07 68.10 4,094,974 苯 35.07 35.05 1,924,103 一、2025 年主要产品经营数据 | 乙二醇 | 4.23 | 4.17 | 159,500 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环氧乙烷 | 11.67 | 11.30 | 606,917 | | 注 2 乙烯 | 60.71 | 0.40 | 24,196 | | 聚乙烯 | 53.00 | 52.87 | 3,977,634 | | 聚丙烯 | 40.13 | 40.12 | 2,893,202 | | 腈纶 | 2.47 | 2.48 | 310,384 | 注 1：销量不包括来料加工业务。 注 2：产销量差距部分为内部自用。 以上销量和销售收入数据 ...

【上海石化：预计2025年净利润亏损12.89亿元-15.76亿元】智通财经1月19日电，上海石化(600688.SH) 公告称，上海石化发布2025年度业绩预告，预计归属于母公司股东的净亏损约为12.89亿元到15.76亿 元。本期同比转亏。报告期内，国际原油价格震荡下行，产品市场需求未明显改善，主要炼化产品毛利 空间缩减，叠加四季度生产装置大修导致商品总量下降，综合造成经营亏损。 转自：智通财经 ...

上海石化1月19日公告，按照中国企业会计准则，本集团预计2025年实现归属于母公司股东的净亏损约 为人民币12.89亿元到人民币15.76亿元。按照中国企业会计准则，本集团预计2025年归属于母公司股东 的扣除非经常性损益的净亏损约为人民币12.80亿元到人民币15.64亿元。 ...

Core Insights - The Tarim Phase II Ethylene Project is a key initiative by China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) with a total investment of 29.7 billion yuan, focusing on the production of various polyethylene products and emphasizing innovation and green construction practices [1][2] Group 1: Project Preparation and Execution - The project team initiated comprehensive preparations one month in advance to ensure the accurate positioning of the cold box, employing a "dual crane lifting" technique with a 400-ton crawler crane for the main load and a 160-ton hydraulic truck crane for dynamic adjustments [1] - During the pearl sand filling phase, the project team worked continuously for 24 hours, overcoming adverse conditions such as winter construction and dust weather, to ensure the filling density and uniformity, which are critical for the cold box's insulation performance [1] Group 2: Project Specifications and Goals - The project includes the construction of 1.2 million tons/year of ethylene, two sets of 450,000 tons/year of high-density polyethylene, and 300,000 tons/year of low-density polyethylene, with over 99% application of proprietary technology and over 98% localization of equipment [1] - The project aims to achieve 100% use of green electricity and has industry-leading electrification rates and comprehensive energy consumption, aligning with its commitment to green and low-carbon development [1]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with all three major indices dropping over 1%. The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.05% to 26,563.9 points, with a total trading volume of 225.69 billion HKD [1] - Huatai Securities noted that the core factors driving the market rebound in the first quarter remain unchanged, including overall loose financial conditions and improved profit expectations, suggesting continued opportunities for investment in Hong Kong stocks [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - Li Ning (02331) reached a new high, closing up 2.94% at 21 HKD, contributing 2.21 points to the Hang Seng Index. Morgan Stanley forecasts moderate revenue growth for Li Ning by 2025, with net profit margins stabilizing at high single digits [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included Sinopec (00386) up 3.34% and Mengniu Dairy (02319) up 2.78%, while China Biologic Products (01177) fell 6.19% and Innovent Biologics (01801) dropped 4.64%, negatively impacting the index [2] Sector Highlights Aviation Stocks - Aviation stocks performed well, with China Eastern Airlines (00670) up 9.2%, China Southern Airlines (01055) up 6.29%, and Air China (00753) up 3.76%. The 2026 Spring Festival travel period is expected to see a passenger volume of 95 million, a 5.3% increase year-on-year [3] Power Equipment Stocks - Power equipment stocks rose, with Dongfang Electric (01072) up 6.38% and Harbin Electric (01133) up 5.46%. The National Energy Administration announced that China's electricity consumption is projected to exceed 10 trillion kWh by 2025, a 5% year-on-year increase [4] Gold Stocks - Gold stocks were active, with Zhaojin Mining (01818) up 3.62% and Zijin Mining (02259) up 2.47%. The international gold price surged to a historical high of 4,690 USD per ounce due to rising market risk aversion stemming from escalating US-EU tariff disputes [5] Earnings Forecasts - Companies with positive earnings forecasts saw strong performance, including Qutoutiao (00917) up 38.78% and TCL Electronics (01070) up 13.4%. Qutoutiao expects to turn a profit with a net income between 270 million to 330 million RMB for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025 [6] Notable Stock Movements - New World Development (00017) surged 16.28% to 11.07 HKD, reaching a two-year high, as the company’s chairman expressed confidence in creating value through strategic investments [7] - UBTECH Robotics (09880) rose 8.63% after signing a service agreement with Airbus for humanoid robots [8] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (01138) climbed 7.39% amid favorable conditions in the oil transportation market due to geopolitical changes [9] - China Duty Free Group (01880) increased by 6.65% following strong growth in duty-free shopping in Hainan [10] - Cambridge Technology (06166) fell 12.2% after reporting lower-than-expected fourth-quarter profits despite a projected annual profit increase [11]

摘要：【图】2025年1-8月宁夏回族自治区柴油产量数据分析 2025年1-8月柴油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前8个月，宁夏回族自治区规模以上工业企业柴油产量累计达到了210.1 万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了13.7%，增速与2024年同期持平，增速较同期全国高16.7个百 分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业柴油产量12961.9万吨的比重为1.6%。 图表：宁夏回族自治区柴油产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年8月柴油产量分析： 单独看2025年8月份，宁夏回族自治区规模以上工业企业柴油产量达到了24.7万吨，与2024年同期的数 据相比，8月份的产量增长了81.8%，增速较2024年同期高117.5个百分点，增速较同期全国高77.2个百 分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业柴油产量1705.8万吨的比重为1.4%。 图表：宁夏回族自治区柴油产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业监测及发展趋势 化工未来发展趋势预测 日化现状及发展前景 润滑油发展 ...