今天分享的是：中央结算公司：债券支持生物多样性白皮书（2025） 报告共计：18页 债券支持生物多样性白皮书（2025）核心内容总结 《债券支持生物多样性白皮书（2025）》系统阐述了生物多样性保护的重要意义、债券市场的支持作用及未来发展建议，展现了金融与生态保护融合的发展 现状与前景。 生物多样性保护意义重大，是高质量发展的生态基底，生态环境保护与经济发展相辅相成，为社会经济可持续发展筑牢根基。同时，它还是维护国家安全的 核心要素，关乎生态、资源和公共安全，在全球环境变化加剧下愈发关键。此外，生物多样性保护是全人类共同事业，也是参与全球生态治理、践行国际责 任的重要体现。 债券市场在政策引领下稳步发展，为生物多样性保护提供有力支撑。国家层面出台多项政策，将生物多样性保护纳入绿色债券支持范围，地方也结合实际推 出专项政策。市场规模持续扩大，截至2024年末，投向涉及生物多样性项目的绿债券达743只，发行规模超1.6万亿元，其中超3900亿元投入生物多样性项 目；贴标绿色债券334只，发行规模8078.3亿元。从品种看，投向绿债券中政府债券占比最高，贴标绿色债券以金融债券为主，且两类债券年度发行规模总 体呈上升 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global capital market is experiencing a split regarding U.S. Treasury bonds, with China significantly reducing its holdings while Japan and the UK are increasing theirs, reflecting a re-evaluation of dollar asset risks and a restructuring of global foreign exchange reserves [1][3][22]. Group 1: China's Actions - China has sold off $60.3 billion in U.S. Treasuries in the first three quarters of the year, reducing its holdings to $700.5 billion, nearly halving its peak position from 2011 [4][6]. - Since the peak, China has sold off 46% of its U.S. Treasury holdings, indicating a strategic shift in response to U.S. economic fundamentals and geopolitical tensions [6][8]. - The reduction in U.S. Treasury holdings is part of a broader strategy to diversify foreign exchange reserves, with gold becoming a key asset, as China's gold reserves reached 2,304.4 tons, marking a continuous increase over 12 months [8][10][11]. Group 2: Japan and the UK's Position - Japan and the UK have collectively increased their U.S. Treasury holdings by over $200 billion, with Japan's holdings reaching $1.1893 trillion, making it the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt [3][14]. - Japan's increase in holdings is seen as a passive response to its geopolitical ties with the U.S., while the UK has actively increased its holdings by $124.8 billion in nine months, reflecting a strategic alignment with U.S. interests [14][16][17]. - Despite the increases from Japan and the UK, their combined holdings only account for 5.4% of the total U.S. Treasury market, highlighting the limited impact on the overall debt situation [19]. Group 3: U.S. Debt Situation - As of September, foreign investors hold $9.249 trillion in U.S. Treasuries, which is only 24.3% of the total, indicating a shift towards domestic consumption of U.S. debt [20]. - The Federal Reserve's policies, including potential future actions to expand its balance sheet, are critical factors influencing the U.S. Treasury market, with concerns about the sustainability of the "debt-for-debt" model [20][22]. - The rapid increase in U.S. debt from $36 trillion to $38 trillion in just nine months raises concerns among global investors about the long-term viability of U.S. Treasuries [22][24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October 2025, the net financing of urban investment bonds turned positive again, with 27 new bond - issuing entities mostly achieving new financing. The net financing scale of urban investment bonds was 150 million yuan, an increase of 440 million yuan compared to August but lower than 688 million yuan in the same period last year. The exchange - issued urban investment bonds shifted from net repayment to net financing of 473 million yuan, while the net repayment scale of the association further expanded to 323 million yuan. [4][8] - The proportion of borrowing new to repay old in urban investment bond issuance in October decreased slightly, and the number of new financing entities in the association was lower than that in the exchange. The proportion of borrowing new to repay old decreased by 4.3 pct to 77.2%, and the proportions of repaying interest - bearing debts, supplementing working capital, project construction, and equity investment rebounded. [26] - In October, 23 new urban investment platforms declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities, and the spreads between entities inside and outside the list showed no differentiation. The spreads between market - oriented operating entities and those without such a declaration remained undifferentiated. [5] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 10 - month Urban Investment Bonds Re - turned to Net Financing, and Most of the 27 New Bond - Issuing Entities Achieved New Financing - **Net Financing Scale**: The net financing scale of urban investment bonds in October was 150 million yuan, an increase of 440 million yuan compared to August but lower than 688 million yuan in the same period last year. The exchange - issued urban investment bonds shifted from net repayment to net financing of 473 million yuan, while the net repayment scale of the association further expanded to 323 million yuan. [4][8] - **Regional Distribution**: In October, 14 provinces and municipalities such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, and Shandong had positive net financing of urban investment bonds, while 12 provinces and municipalities such as Chongqing and Jiangxi had net repayment. In the past year, the net repayment of urban investment bonds was 6.29 billion yuan, with a slightly narrowed decline compared to the previous year. Most provinces had an increase in net financing scale year - on - year, but 11 provinces and municipalities still had net repayment. [4][11] - **Early Repayment**: The actual early repayment scale of urban investment bonds in October decreased by 70 million yuan compared to September to 770 million yuan, but the scale of announced early repayment and cash tender offer repurchase increased month - on - month. The number and scale of termination approvals on the exchange in October both decreased. [4] - **First - Time Bond - Issuing Entities**: In October, there were 27 first - time bond - issuing entities, an increase of 4 compared to September, and the total bond - issuing scale rose to 1.354 billion yuan. These entities mainly issued bonds through private placement bonds on the exchange. The first - time bond - issuing platforms were mainly distributed in relatively economically developed regions such as Guangdong, Shandong, and Zhejiang. [4][22] 3.2 In October, the Proportion of Borrowing New to Repay Old in Urban Investment Bond Issuance Slightly Decreased, and the Number of New Financing Entities in the Association was Lower than that in the Exchange - **Proportion of Borrowing New to Repay Old**: The proportion of borrowing new to repay old in urban investment bond issuance in October decreased by 4.3 pct to 77.2%, and the proportions of repaying interest - bearing debts, supplementing working capital, project construction, and equity investment rebounded. [26] - **Regional Differences**: In October, the borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratios in Guizhou and Xinjiang remained at 100%. The borrowing - new - to - repay - old ratios in 11 provinces and municipalities such as Yunnan, Tianjin, and Ningxia increased, while those in 12 provinces and municipalities such as Hubei, Hunan, and Zhejiang decreased. [26][27] - **New Financing Entities**: In October, the association issued 36 products involving 25 entities, with a total issuance scale of 3.4677 billion yuan. The exchange issued 62 new - financing bonds involving 51 entities, with a total issuance scale of 4.5659 billion yuan. [28][29] 3.3 In October, 23 New Market - Oriented Declaration Entities were Added, and the Spreads between Entities Inside and Outside the List Showed No Differentiation - **Accumulated Market - Oriented Declaration Entities**: As of the end of October, a total of 525 urban investment entities declared themselves as market - oriented operating entities when issuing bonds. [36] - **October's Issuance Situation**: In October, 78 entities that declared market - oriented operation in the association issued 113 association bonds, with a total issuance scale of 6.8348 billion yuan. Five entities that declared market - oriented operation in the exchange issued exchange products in October, among which Hefei Construction Investment achieved new financing. [5][39] - **Spread Analysis**: The spreads between market - oriented operating entities and those without such a declaration remained undifferentiated. For AA - rated and AA(2) - rated urban investment bonds, the spreads in most regions converged, and there was no significant differentiation between market - oriented and non - market - oriented entities. [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The current situation where "fixed income +" funds may sell bonds to replenish liquidity due to the adjustment in the equity market is not expected to last. As the expectation of interest rate cuts rises and the year - end allocation market arrives, especially if the equity market continues to fluctuate and adjust, bond yields may experience a new round of downward trends. The report maintains the judgment that the taxable yield of 10 - year treasury bonds will decline to 1.70% - 1.75% [1][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Down, Bonds Follow the Decline? - The stock - bond seesaw effect is well - known to bond market investors. Normally, when the equity market declines significantly, bond yields will decline smoothly. However, since November this year, the Shanghai Composite Index has significantly declined, but the price of 10 - year treasury bonds has oscillated overall and even declined. For example, on November 21, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 2.5%, but the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds increased [6][11]. - When the equity market adjusts, "fixed income +" funds may face large net - value drawdowns. High - volatility "fixed income +" funds have a higher proportion of equity, and their performance mainly comes from equity assets. When the equity market declines, they are more likely to face redemption pressure and may sell some bond assets. Low - volatility "fixed income +" funds have a lower proportion of equity and are more resistant to decline, but they may also sell some bond assets to prevent redemption pressure [7][11]. 3.2 "Fixed Income +" Funds May Sell Bonds to Replenish Liquidity - Recently, the yields of "fixed income +" funds have been generally poor, and the yields of interest - rate bonds have oscillated slightly upward. The weak equity market has not directly led to a bond bull market. The overall average daily return of "fixed income +" funds has turned negative, with a single - day return of - 1.4% on November 21. The higher the equity position in "fixed income +" funds, the more obvious the decline in the daily return in the recent week, and the more obvious the drawdown [7][15]. - When "fixed income +" funds face redemption pressure, fund managers may prefer to sell liquid bonds rather than reduce equity positions. This "sell bonds to protect stocks" strategy meets the liquidity needs of redemptions and avoids passive reduction of equity at a low point in the equity market. As a result, the bond market has been dull under selling pressure, and the net - value growth of "fixed income +" funds has been pressured by the weakness of the equity part [7][15]. - Although the cash reserves of "fixed income +" funds (current deposit ratio of about 1.3% - 1.6%) are generally higher than those of non - "fixed income +" funds (about 0.7% - 0.8%), during significant market fluctuations, the peak of single - day net redemptions may exceed the cash reserve level. Therefore, when facing strong liquidity pressure, "fixed income +" funds may still have to sell liquid bonds [7][26].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around global asset allocation, focusing on the stock and gold markets, particularly in the context of China and the United States. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Global Market Trends**: The global stock and gold markets are benefiting from a technological revolution, with growth stocks outperforming value stocks. Chinese stocks are performing better than U.S. stocks. Recommendations include overweighting gold and Chinese tech stocks while underweighting commodities and U.S. dollar assets, a strategy that has been validated by market prices [1][2][28]. 2. **Current Market Conditions**: U.S., A-share, and Hong Kong stocks are in a bull market, with A-share and Hong Kong stocks nearing historical medians. The U.S. stock market and gold have had prolonged bull markets but still have room for growth. The key to determining the peak of Chinese stocks lies in economic policies, liquidity, and earnings valuations [1][6][18]. 3. **Investment Concerns for 2026**: Two main concerns for 2026 are whether the bull markets in stocks and gold can continue and what measures to take if market conditions change. Recent pullbacks in Chinese, U.S. stocks, and gold indicate that the market is contemplating potential changes in future trends [3][4]. 4. **Valuation Analysis**: Current valuations show that gold, U.S. stocks, and Chinese bonds are relatively high, while U.S. bonds and commodities are undervalued. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are at moderate valuations. The geopolitical events can impact markets, typically negatively affecting stocks while boosting gold and commodities [4][22][23]. 5. **Asset Class Switching Patterns**: Historical data indicates that U.S. stocks have a longer bull market duration (84% of the time) compared to the more volatile Chinese stocks. The switching patterns of different asset classes require careful monitoring of market peaks [5][6]. 6. **Top Prediction Challenges**: Predicting market tops is complicated by various bullish narratives and the difficulty of timely decision-making even when correct signals are received. The need for a multi-dimensional approach to analyze market signals is emphasized [10][11][12]. 7. **Impact of U.S. Federal Reserve Policies**: The Fed's monetary policy is crucial for asset prices. Current loose policies support asset prices, but potential tightening could pressure both stocks and gold. The Fed's personnel changes may lead to a more dovish stance in the long term [20][21]. 8. **China's Economic Policy Influence**: China's incremental policies must meet expectations to avoid negative impacts on macro liquidity. The government is committed to stabilizing growth, which is expected to support the economy and maintain stable M1 and M2 growth rates [21][24]. 9. **Geopolitical Events**: Recent geopolitical events, such as trade wars, have significantly influenced market trends, generally negatively impacting stocks while benefiting gold and commodities [23]. 10. **Valuation Concerns**: High valuations in gold and U.S. stocks increase the risk of market corrections. However, there is no clear evidence that these factors will reverse the current bull market trends, suggesting a continued overweight in Chinese stocks and gold [25][28]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Commodity Allocation Strategy**: Increasing commodity allocations is recommended to hedge against potential changes in stock and gold bull markets. Commodities are currently undervalued and could benefit from various scenarios, including better-than-expected economic performance or geopolitical shocks [26][29]. 2. **Specific Asset Class Recommendations**: - **Chinese Stocks**: Maintain an overweight position with a more balanced style, anticipating value and cyclical sectors to catch up. - **Chinese Bonds**: Downgrade from standard to underweight due to better opportunities in other assets. - **U.S. Stocks**: Maintain a standard allocation, given the high valuations and better performance of non-dollar assets. - **Gold**: Continue to overweight but be cautious of volatility, suggesting a strategy of buying on dips rather than chasing prices [27][29].

每经AI快讯，11月24日，深交所公告，"卓镁转债"(123260)盘中成交价较发行价首次上涨达到或超过 30%，根据《深圳证券交易所可转换公司债券交易实施细则》等有关规定，本所自今日09时30分00秒起 对该债券实施临时停牌，于14时57分00秒复牌。 ...

Group 1: Key Insights on Weiteou (301319) - The recommendation logic indicates that electronic assembly materials are transitioning from domestic substitution to the global market, with perfluorohexane microcapsule fireproof materials expected to see significant growth in the new energy sector [4] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 1,557 million, 2,133 million, and 2,796 million yuan from 2025 to 2027, with growth rates of 28.5%, 37.0%, and 31.1% respectively. Net profit is expected to be 102 million, 124 million, and 153 million yuan, with growth rates of 13.8%, 21.5%, and 23.5% [4] - Key catalysts include exceeding expectations in electronic assembly material orders, auxiliary welding material shipment ratios, and perfluorohexane microcapsule material orders [4] Group 2: Insights on Pharmaceutical Industry - The core viewpoint emphasizes the potential for domestic innovative drugs to break into international markets, driven by the "engineer dividend" which enhances clinical efficiency and data quality [5] - The report suggests that the domestic innovative drug pipeline is gaining recognition from multinational corporations (MNCs), with several technical fields achieving global leadership in pipeline quantity [5] - The driving factors include exceeding expectations in business development (BD), clinical data, and commercialization in overseas markets [5] Group 3: Insights on Food and Beverage Industry - The core viewpoint suggests focusing on left-side investment opportunities in the liquor sector as it approaches a cyclical recovery, while consumer goods are expected to continue benefiting from new consumption trends [7] - The report indicates that liquor companies' performance expectations are at a low point, with signals of stock price stabilization and potential rebounds [7] - Key drivers include the bottoming out of liquor company performance expectations and the expansion into new product categories and channels [7] Group 4: Insights on A-Share Strategy - The core viewpoint advises against blind selling during market adjustments, suggesting that a systematic "slow bull" market is still in play and may enter a second phase after adjustments [8] - The report recommends focusing on the brokerage sector as a signal for potential market recovery, advocating for patience during the current market corrections [8] - Key drivers include the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations on global markets and the need for a rebalancing of market styles in the fourth quarter [9] Group 5: Insights on Macro Economic Strategy - The core viewpoint outlines three main paths to improve the resident consumption rate: promoting employment and income stability, expanding the supply of quality consumer goods and services, and refining institutional mechanisms [11] - The report highlights the importance of the 15th Five-Year Plan in driving domestic consumption as a key economic growth engine [11] - The driving factors include the recent policy directions from the Communist Party's plenary session aimed at enhancing domestic consumption [11] Group 6: Insights on Fixed Income Market - The core viewpoint indicates that interbank liquidity is expected to remain loose in the short term, with seasonal disturbances amplifying the effects of low core reserves [12] - The report suggests that the true test of narrow liquidity may occur in the first quarter of 2026, influenced by credit slowdowns and central bank interventions [12] - Key drivers include the anticipated surge in credit in early 2026 and the market's limited understanding of the net financing outflows from major banks [12]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Interest Rates - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses kernel regression algorithms to capture the trend patterns of interest rates, depicting the support and resistance lines of interest rate data. It provides multi-cycle composite timing views based on the pattern breakthrough situations of interest rate trends under different investment cycles[10]. - **Model Construction Process**: - **Data Source**: Yield to Maturity (YTM) data of 5-year, 10-year, and 30-year government bonds. - **Cycles**: Long cycle (monthly), medium cycle (bi-weekly), and short cycle (weekly). - **Signal Calculation**: - For the 5-year bond YTM: Long cycle upward breakthrough, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle no signal. Final signal: bearish[10]. - For the 10-year bond YTM: Long cycle downward breakthrough, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle no signal. Final signal: neutral to bearish[13]. - For the 30-year bond YTM: Long cycle no signal, medium cycle upward breakthrough, short cycle upward breakthrough. Final signal: bearish[16]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively captures the trend patterns of interest rates and provides clear timing signals based on multi-cycle analysis[10][13][16]. Model Backtesting Results 1. Multi-Cycle Timing Model for Interest Rates - **5-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 5.5% - Maximum drawdown: 2.88% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.91 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 2.24% - Maximum drawdown: 0.59% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.8 - Long-term excess return: 1.07% - Short-term excess return: 0.81% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 100% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 100%[25] - **10-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 6.08% - Maximum drawdown: 2.74% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 2.22 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 2.69% - Maximum drawdown: 0.58% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 4.65 - Long-term excess return: 1.65% - Short-term excess return: 1.39% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 100% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 100%[28] - **30-Year Bond YTM**: - Long-term annualized return: 7.36% - Maximum drawdown: 4.27% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 1.72 - Short-term annualized return (since end of 2024): 3.25% - Maximum drawdown: 0.92% - Return-to-drawdown ratio: 3.54 - Long-term excess return: 2.41% - Short-term excess return: 2.57% - Probability of positive annual absolute return: 94.44% - Probability of positive annual excess return: 94.44%[33]

Market Overview - The bond market is currently in a low volatility state, with the 10-year government bond yield stabilizing around 1.81%[10] - The central bank maintains a cautious stance on further "loose monetary" policies, leading to a decline in market enthusiasm for interest rate cuts[21] Funding and Investment Trends - Since Q3, there has been a significant outflow of deposits, with funds primarily shifting to wealth management and insurance products, which have not significantly increased their bond allocations[22] - The proportion of bond investments by insurance companies dropped from 49.3% to 48.5%, marking the first decline in 12 quarters, while stock holdings increased from 8.8% to 10.0%[22] Trading Activity - Daily trading volumes for 10-year government bonds have halved compared to mid-October, indicating a significant drop in market activity[22] - Public funds and asset management products are shifting their focus from interest rate bonds to credit bonds, with net purchases of credit bonds totaling 107 billion yuan compared to only 33 billion yuan for interest rate bonds[23] Duration and Risk Assessment - The average duration of interest rate bond funds is currently at 3.48 years, reflecting a risk-averse stance among institutions[29] - The current market environment does not support further increases in interest rates, suggesting limited upward movement in yields[29] Future Outlook - The market is expected to remain cautious until new regulations on redemption fees are implemented and interest rate cut expectations are clarified, likely leading to a period of oscillation with limited price movement[29] - For short-term strategies, reducing trading activity may be advisable to avoid friction costs, while focusing on 3-5 year and 5-7 year bonds may present relative spread opportunities[30]

Core Viewpoint - The global landscape of U.S. Treasury bond holdings is shifting dramatically, with significant sell-offs by major foreign investors like the UK and China, indicating a reevaluation of the dollar's status as a safe haven asset [1][10][11]. Group 1: Foreign Investor Behavior - The UK has notably reduced its holdings of U.S. Treasuries, selling off $39.3 billion in September, bringing its total holdings down to approximately $865 billion, marking a new low [13][18]. - China has also quietly reduced its U.S. Treasury holdings, but the amount is relatively small, around $5 billion, indicating a more strategic adjustment rather than a panic sell-off [31][33]. - Japan, in contrast, has increased its holdings by $8.9 billion in September, maintaining its position as the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries at approximately $1.19 trillion [20][24]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Implications - The perception of U.S. Treasuries as a "safe haven" is changing, with international buyers becoming more cautious and reevaluating the risks associated with holding U.S. debt [11][16]. - The global shift in asset allocation is evident, as central banks are increasingly investing in gold, which has surpassed the total value of U.S. Treasuries held by governments, reflecting a broader trend towards diversifying away from dollar-denominated assets [29][37]. - The current situation suggests a potential end to the era of relying on credit expansion for global wealth accumulation, as investors seek more tangible assets to safeguard their wealth [39][41].