Core Viewpoint - The 2025 technology structural bull market is considered "Bull Market 1.0," with a potential peak in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive bull market termed "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The AI industry trend is expected to deepen, but the cost-effectiveness of the A-share AI industry chain is deemed low, similar to previous years in 2014, 2018, and 2021 [1] - A mid-2026 supply clearing in midstream manufacturing is anticipated, with a notable increase in sectors where capacity growth is lower than demand growth [1] - The sequence of "policy bottom, market bottom, economic bottom" is expected to occur, with mid-2026 potentially validating the "policy bottom" [1] Group 2: Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on three main lines in 2026: 1. Recovery trading sectors such as cyclical Alpha, basic chemicals, and industrial metals 2. Technology industry trend sectors including AI industry chain, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industry 3. Sectors related to manufacturing influence enhancement, such as chemicals and engineering machinery [2] - The transition from Bull Market 1.0 to 2.0 is characterized by high dividend defensiveness, with the latter stage driven by cyclical policies and technological trends [2]

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3190 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3220 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3220 yuan (+10) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The black metal sector fluctuated and declined today, with coking coal and coke leading the decline, and iron ore remaining strong. Steel spot trading was generally weak, mainly driven by low-price rigid demand [5] - According to Buguwang data, building materials and hot-rolled coils continued to reduce production this week, and molten iron flowed into other sectors. The reduction in rebar production was greater than that of plates. Steel inventories decreased rapidly, but manufacturing demand was fair, and the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils improved, while the apparent demand for rebar continued to decline [5] - It is expected that molten iron production will continue to decline, squeezing raw materials and causing the steel price center to shift downward. In the fourth quarter, capital release has slowed down, downstream payment collection has been difficult, and the number of projects has decreased year-on-year, so there is still pressure on the upside. However, the recent reduction in steel production has alleviated some pressure, and the main fluctuations come from raw materials [5] - Currently, steel valuations are low, and the market will continue to fluctuate. Breaking the deadlock requires more factors. However, hot-rolled coils have generally performed better than rebar, and the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar is expected to remain in an expansion cycle [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Maintain a weak range-bound trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to hold the long position on the spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar [7] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8] Group 4: Important Information - According to Aoweiyunwang's total data, the retail sales volume of air conditioners in October decreased by 23.8% year-on-year. From the monthly monitoring data, the sales volume online and offline decreased by 22.2% and 42.3% respectively in October, and the decline offline continued to expand. In terms of production, Aoweiyunwang's latest production schedule data shows that the domestic sales production schedule for air conditioners in December is 4.822 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6%, and the export production schedule is 9.074 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.2%. The balance between domestic and export sales in the peak export season in December has been broken [9] - On November 18, the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October 2025, China's excavator production was 30,880 units, a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to October 2025, China's excavator production was 308,062 units, a year-on-year increase of 16.4% [10]

Core Viewpoint - The company Pangu Intelligent (盘古智能) has confirmed that its products are applicable across various industries, including wind power generation, engineering machinery, mining machinery, shield machines, industrial machine tools, rail transit, and port cranes [1] Industry Applications - The company's products can be utilized in the wind power generation sector [1] - The engineering machinery industry is another key area for the company's product applications [1] - Mining machinery is also a significant field where the company's products are relevant [1] - Shield machines, which are used in tunneling, represent another application area for the company's offerings [1] - Industrial machine tools are included in the range of industries served by the company [1] - The rail transit sector is another important industry for the company's products [1] - Port cranes are also part of the industries where the company's products can be applied [1]

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 现实格局趋稳，钢矿震荡运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡下行，录得 0.49%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应收缩至低位，但需求表现偏弱，供需双弱局面下基本面并未 改善，钢价仍易承压，相对利好的是估值偏低以及成本尚有支撑，短期 走势延续低位震荡运行，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.18%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需格局变化不大，产业矛盾未缓解，卷价继续承压，相对利 好则是成本尚有支撑，短期走势延续低位震荡运行态势，关注钢厂生产 情况。 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.76%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，得益于套利逻辑切换以及矿石需求改善提振，矿价低位回升，但供 应居高不下，矿市基本面并无实质性改善，上行驱动不强，预计走势延 续震荡运行态势，关注钢材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 ...

Core Insights - The engineering machinery sector experienced a decline of 0.6% on November 19, with XG Group leading the losses [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3946.74, up 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13080.09, down 0.0% [1] Engineering Machinery Sector Performance - Notable gainers included: - Fushite (code: 301446) with a closing price of 32.72, up 3.35% on a trading volume of 40,000 shares and a turnover of 131 million yuan [1] - Hailun Zhe (code: 300201) with a closing price of 5.74, up 2.68% on a trading volume of 597,800 shares and a turnover of 341 million yuan [1] - Major decliners included: - XG Group (code: 600815) with a closing price of 3.95, down 9.61% on a trading volume of 2,048,800 shares and a turnover of 83.3 million yuan [2] - Huadong Heavy Machinery (code: 002685) with a closing price of 7.63, down 4.63% on a trading volume of 407,500 shares and a turnover of 315 million yuan [2] Capital Flow Analysis - The engineering machinery sector saw a net outflow of 455 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net inflow of 226 million yuan [2] - Key stocks with significant capital flow included: - Hailun Zhe with a net outflow of 24.76 million yuan from institutional investors and a net inflow of 19.27 million yuan from retail investors [3] - XG Group with a net inflow of 13.49 million yuan from institutional investors [3]

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for the A-share market in 2026 is optimistic, driven by global market demand rather than solely domestic factors, with key influences from the China-US relationship and significant events such as trade agreements and US midterm elections [1][5][11]. Configuration Directions - Three major themes to focus on include: 1. Upgrading traditional manufacturing and resource industries to enhance pricing power and profit margins [2][4]. 2. Chinese companies expanding globally, significantly increasing profit growth potential and market capitalization [2][4]. 3. The commercialization of AI, which will continue to expand the technology sector's influence and amplify the competitive advantages of Chinese enterprises [2][4]. Market Phases - The market is expected to experience a two-phase bull market: "Bull Market 1.0" in 2025 focused on technology, and a potential transition to "Bull Market 2.0" in the second half of 2026, driven by cyclical recovery and growth in manufacturing [3][6]. Investment Opportunities - Key sectors to watch include: 1. Recovery trades in cyclical industries such as basic chemicals and industrial metals [4]. 2. Technology trends with opportunities in AI, humanoid robots, energy storage, photovoltaics, pharmaceuticals, and military industries [4][8]. 3. Enhanced influence of manufacturing, particularly in chemicals and engineering machinery [4][8]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to continue its upward trend post "9·24" with a focus on fundamental improvements and risk management against volatility, particularly in the context of evolving China-US relations and the AI revolution [5][11]. Sector Focus - Recommended sectors include: 1. New energy, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, oil and petrochemicals, non-bank financials, military, machinery, and computing [8][12]. 2. Themes such as new materials, solid-state batteries, commercial aerospace, nuclear power, and cross-strait integration [8][12]. Overall Market Sentiment - The sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of continued inflow of incremental funds and a focus on sectors that may outperform expectations, particularly in AI and pragmatic cooperation between China and the US [11][12].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China's economic transformation is accelerating, leading to a demand for quality assets, particularly in the technology sector, despite recent adjustments in the A-share market [1] - The light communication sector has shown strong performance, with over 70% of listed companies reporting earnings growth in the first three quarters, driven by expanding demand for AI computing power [3] - The storage sector is experiencing a significant economic turning point, with expectations of 300GWh of new installations next year, driven by marketization of renewable energy and capacity pricing [3] Group 2 - Gold prices have weakened following significant outflows from gold ETFs, indicating that the previous surge was largely speculative, with fundamental support for gold diminishing [5] - Recent changes in domestic gold policies, such as taxation on gold jewelry, are aimed at curbing speculation but are not expected to have a substantial impact on gold prices [5] - The short-term outlook for gold is influenced by easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, although long-term support remains due to concerns over the dollar's creditworthiness [5] Group 3 - The short-term market trend is weak, with limited new capital entering the market and a lack of significant profit-making opportunities [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has seen a rise in large-cap stocks, while the overall market remains cautious, indicating a mixed sentiment among investors [11] - The technology sector and value stocks are expected to be key focus areas, with strong performance in the computing power supply chain following recent adjustments [11]

Industry Insights - The domestic demand for cranes in the Chinese engineering machinery industry continues to recover, with sales of truck-mounted cranes and crawler cranes increasing by 42% and 54% year-on-year in October, respectively, driven by energy projects and wind power installations [2] - Exports of various types of engineering machinery also performed strongly in October, except for aerial work platforms and truck-mounted cranes, confirming the previous view that non-earthmoving machinery demand is recovering and will act as a catalyst for the industry [2] - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies such as Zoomlion (1157 HK / 000157 CH), Sany Heavy Industry (600031 CH), and Hengli Hydraulic (601100 CH), while adopting a cautious stance on Zhejiang Dingli (603338 CH) due to the continued weakness in aerial work platform sales, which fell by 39% year-on-year in October [2] Company Insights - Pinduoduo (PDD US) reported a 9.0% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, reaching 108.3 billion RMB, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations, primarily driven by a 7% increase in transaction service fees [6] - Baidu (BIDU US) reported a core revenue of 24.7 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 7.0% year-on-year decline, but slightly above market expectations, with non-GAAP operating profit showing a 67% year-on-year decline [7] - Trip.com Group (TCOM US) achieved a total revenue of 18.4 billion RMB in Q3 2025, a 15.5% year-on-year increase, exceeding both internal and market expectations, driven by strong operational leverage [8] - BOSS Zhipin (BZ US) reported a 13% year-on-year revenue growth to 2.16 billion RMB in Q3 2025, with non-GAAP net profit increasing by 34% to 999.2 million RMB, benefiting from effective control of sales and R&D expenses [10] - Xiaomi Group (1810 HK) saw a 22% year-on-year revenue growth in Q3 2025, driven by the rapidly growing smart electric vehicle business and resilient internet segment, despite pressures from rising memory costs [11] - Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US) anticipates continued revenue growth in FY26, driven by store expansion and new product strategies, despite a cautious outlook on same-store sales growth due to high base effects [12][13] - Guosheng Tang (2273 HK) is entering a phase of overseas expansion with the acquisition of a 100% stake in a Singapore-based TCM clinic, aiming for significant revenue growth in the overseas market by 2026 [17][18]

积极响应，快速投放流动资金，支持企业日常经营资金需求只是工商银行柳州分行践行金融服务实体经 济使命的缩影。一直以来，工商银行柳州分行坚守服务实体经济本源，立足区域经济发展战略，以实体 经济发展所需为出发点，发挥金融所能、工行所长，统筹信贷布局和投放，加大金融产品和服务供给， 有力地支持了地方经济高质量发展，截至10月末，该行公司贷款余额达452.69亿元，比年初增加25.11亿 元，以扎扎实实的数据展现金融担当。（陈衍豪 潘迎莹） 转自：新华财经 编辑：赵鼎 近日，工商银行柳州分行在日常客户维护中了解到某企业有优化融资结构的需求，该行第一时间组建柔 性服务团队，主动上门对接客户，根据企业经营实际，为其量身定制专属的利率优惠融资方案，此次总 共发放1.5亿元流动资金贷款，专项用于企业货款支付，并提供优惠利率；同时向客户提供贷款明白纸 及详细清单，透明融资成本，让客户清晰了解融资费用明细构成，真正"贷"得明明白白。 该企业主营工程机械等产品研发制造，拥有30余条整机产品线，产品远销180多个国家和地区，是拉动 当地经济增长、创造就业的重要力量。为支持企业稳健经营发展和产业链稳定，工商银行柳州分行持续 深化企业服务 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the conference is that 2026 will mark the beginning of a new phase of high-quality development for China's economy and capital markets, driven by the "three new" concepts: new factor systems, new institutional frameworks, and new service systems [1] - The chief economist predicts that 2025 will be a year of recovering confidence, while 2026 will see comprehensive reforms and development, leading to atypical economic recovery and improved profitability [1] - The concept of "seeking dividends from reform" encompasses three meanings: accelerated reform progress presenting significant opportunities, short-term policies to boost domestic demand continuing under a long-term reform framework, and the breadth, depth, and strength of the "dividends" being closely tied to reforms [1] Group 2 - The "two-phase theory of rising markets" suggests that the technology-driven market in 2025 will represent "Phase 1.0," potentially peaking in spring 2026, followed by a comprehensive market phase "Phase 2.0" in the second half of 2026 [2] - The "Phase 1.0" is expected to reach its peak in spring 2026, with the AI industry still showing growth potential, although A-share AI stocks are currently in a long-term low-value area [2] - In "Phase 2.0," it is anticipated that midstream manufacturing supply will clear, with capacity growth rates falling below demand growth, leading to improved stock selection success rates [2] Group 3 - The industry outlook indicates that the "Phase 1.0" is at a high level, with one more opportunity for technology growth before spring 2026, while the transition to "Phase 2.0" will favor high-dividend defensive stocks [3] - The "Phase 2.0" will see cyclical stocks leading index breakthroughs, with technology industry trends and the global influence of manufacturing becoming the main themes [3] - Three structural clues to watch include recovery trades (basic chemicals, industrial metals), technology industry trends (AI industry chain, humanoid robots), and the enhancement of manufacturing influence (chemicals, engineering machinery) [3]