在9月17日FOMC会议前，多家国际投行更新了对美联储政策的预测： 1.瑞银：预计美联储将自9月起连 续四次降息，总幅度100个基点，理由是通胀接近目标且劳动力市场风险加大。 2.高盛：预计今年9月、 10月、12月连续三次降息25个基点，2025年再降两次，将利率降至3%–3.25%；若劳动力市场恶化加 速，下次会议不排除降息50个基点。高盛强调，就业市场疲软已成为政策重心，通胀不再是阻碍降息的 主因。 3.摩根士丹利：预计今年余下的三次会议均将降息25个基点，较此前预测增加了10月一次降息。 4.巴克莱：预计9月、10月、12月均降息25个基点，并在2026和2027年各再降一次。 5.摩根大通：认 为"鸽派降息25个基点"概率最高（47.5%），标普500或立即上涨1%；若伴随鹰派言论，美股或持平/小 跌；维持不变概率仅4%，或致标普500跌至6450点；50基点降息概率7.5%，市场或双向波动。摩根大通 资管策略师David Kelly警告，当前市场泡沫化，宽松或适得其反。 6. 德意志银行：首席经济学家卢泽 蒂称，美联储将分三次降息，每次25个基点；在本次FOMC会议上，可能会发生自1988年以来首 ...

Group 1 - The current market environment suggests that a 60% equity, 20% fixed income, and 20% gold investment strategy is more effective in hedging against inflation risks, as the historical yield advantage of U.S. stocks over government bonds is at a low point [1][3] - The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio is being challenged, with gold now seen as a more valuable asset for resilience compared to U.S. Treasuries, while high-quality stocks can maintain profit growth in inflationary conditions [3] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a weak month for U.S. stocks, yet in 2023, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have repeatedly reached new highs [3] Group 2 - The return of alpha returns indicates a shift from a broad market movement to structural opportunities, allowing investors to achieve above-average returns through precise industry selection and stock picking, with gold providing foundational risk hedging [4] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,700 per ounce, setting a new historical record, driven by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar [3]

Core Insights - The report by Goldman Sachs predicts a potential price increase in the real estate market of six major urban clusters in China by 2027, driven by economic restructuring, population migration, and urbanization [2][3][19] - The report highlights a significant regional differentiation in the real estate market, with the six urban clusters expected to outperform the national average in price recovery [3][13] Regional Analysis - **Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei**: The region is expected to benefit from strong policy support and a reversal in population outflow, with a projected net growth rate of 0.3% starting in Q1 2025. The number of high-tech enterprises surged by 17.3% in 2024 [3][4][5] - **Yangtze River Delta**: This area, with a GDP share of 24.7% of the national total, is predicted to see a cumulative price increase of 12.6% by 2027, bolstered by a 21.5% rise in patent applications in 2024 [5][6] - **Pearl River Delta**: The region is benefiting from the rapid development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, with a projected price increase of 13.7% by 2027, supported by a 9.2% year-on-year growth in foreign investment [6][7] - **Chengdu-Chongqing**: This western economic hub is expected to see an 11.5% price increase by 2027, driven by a GDP growth rate of 7.3% in Q1 2025, which is above the national average [7][8] - **Central Plains**: The region is projected to experience an 8.2% price increase by 2027, supported by a 16.8% growth in infrastructure investment and a 13.5% increase in high-tech industry value added in 2024 [8][9] - **Yangtze River Middle Reaches**: This area is expected to see a 9.3% price increase by 2027, with a reported 8.7% growth in industrial output value in 2025 [9][10] Driving Forces - The anticipated price increases in these urban clusters are underpinned by strong industrial upgrades and population influx, with high-tech enterprises accounting for 68.3% of the national total and an average R&D investment intensity of 3.2% [10][11] - The net population growth rate in these urban clusters averages 0.8%, significantly higher than other regions, indicating a strong attraction for young labor due to quality public resources [10][11] Policy and Financial Support - The Chinese government is actively promoting a new real estate development model focused on housing for living rather than speculation, with measures such as reduced down payment ratios and adjustments to mortgage rates [11][14] - The real estate-related loan balance reached 53.7 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, indicating a supportive financial environment for market recovery [14][15] Conclusion - Overall, the report reflects a significant transformation in China's real estate market, emphasizing quality and efficiency over rapid growth. The six urban clusters are expected to lead the recovery, with a focus on sustainable development and the return to housing's fundamental purpose [16][17][19]

Core Insights - The seminar hosted by CICC focused on the theme of "New Changes in Geoeconomics," featuring discussions on digital finance, energy transition, strategic industries, and technological development [3][10] - The event attracted nearly 380 participants from government, industry, academia, and investment sectors, highlighting the importance of geoeconomic restructuring [2][10] Summary by Sections Opening Remarks - The seminar commenced with opening remarks from CICC Chairman Chen Liang, setting the stage for discussions on the new geoeconomic landscape [3][5] Keynote Speakers - Notable speakers included former Governor of the People's Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan, Columbia University Professor Jeffrey D. Sachs, and Zheng Yongnian, Dean of the School of Public Policy at the Chinese University of Hong Kong (Shenzhen) [5][7] Research Publication - CICC released a joint report titled "Geoeconomics: Changes and Restructuring," analyzing the implications of geoeconomic competition and potential policy responses, which received positive feedback from attendees [7][10] Expert Discussions - The afternoon sessions featured experts from various prestigious institutions, including the University of Chicago, Fudan University, and MIT, discussing trends in geoeconomics [9][10] CICC Global Institute - CICC Global Institute aims to serve as a new think tank for public policy research and international discussions, focusing on long-term development issues in the Chinese and global economy [10]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform is designed to deliver daily updates on research focuses and timely articles through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - It features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots, enhancing the accessibility of expert insights [4]. Group 2: Data and Frameworks - The platform includes over 160 industry research frameworks and 40 premium databases, providing comprehensive industry data [10]. - It also offers a "CICC Insight Big Model" that utilizes AI technology for intelligent search and question-answering capabilities, facilitating user inquiries [10]. Group 3: User Engagement - Users can unlock upgraded features by verifying their email, enhancing their experience on the platform [8]. - The platform aims to create an open and shared knowledge base in the financial industry, promoting collaboration and information exchange [1].

市场分析认为，美国就业数据加快走弱，支持美联储9月重启降息，降息预期是近期金价上涨的关键动力 。 高盛集团在9月4日表示，如果 美联储公信力受损，而投资者将一小部分美债持仓转换为黄金，金价可能会飙升至每盎司近5000美元。 美联储本年度 9 月利率决策会议在当地时间 9 月 16 日到 17 日举办。 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储 FOMC 将公布利率决议结 果和经济预期。凌晨 2 点 30 分鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 CME"美联储观察工具"数据显示，市场预计美联储有95.8%的概率将在9月17日的议息会议上降息25个基点，有4.2%的概率降息50个基 点，维持现状的概率为0%。市场押注美国降息已成定局。 值得一提的是，当地时间 9 月 15 日，美联储议息名单发生两大变动：其一，特朗普提名的米兰获参议院批准出任美联储理事，将在本次会 议中拥有 12 张表决票中的一票；其二，美国一上诉法院驳回特朗普解雇库克的请求，若最高法院未裁决，库克将参与此次议息会议并投 票。 参考资料： 美东时间周二，美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.27%，标普500指数跌0.13%，纳斯达克综合指数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold prices surged past $3,700 per ounce on September 16, marking a 0.56% increase and setting a new historical high, with a year-to-date rise of $1,076 per ounce [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - The weakening U.S. employment data supports expectations for the Federal Reserve to resume interest rate cuts in September, which is a key driver behind the recent increase in gold prices [1] - Goldman Sachs indicated on September 4 that if the Federal Reserve's credibility is compromised, and investors shift a small portion of their U.S. Treasury holdings to gold, prices could potentially soar to nearly $5,000 per ounce [1]

Piper Sandler的Michael Kantrowitz说，"我们以前见过股市和失业率一同上涨。"他指出了1950年代、 1960年代和1990年代初的过往周期，当时疲软的就业数据拉低了利率，并助推了股市的反弹。 高盛策略师David Kostin直言不讳地表示："在所有其他条件相同的情况下，降温的劳动力市场是企业利 润的顺风，因为工资——大多数公司资产负债表上最大的项目——正在减速。" 标普500指数在招聘降温、失业率上升的情况下，却不断创下历史新高，摩根大通将此称为"失业式扩张 的奇特案例"。 这背后的押注逻辑很简单：疲软的就业数据促使美联储降息，更低的利率提升了估值，而放缓的工资增 长则增加了企业利润率。 这听起来可能违反直觉，失业率上升和股市上涨通常不会同时发生，但这并非没有先例。 对年轻的美国人来说，情况看起来甚至更惨淡。8月份，16至24岁工人的失业率跃升至10.5%，这是自 疫情以来的首次两位数读数，而应届大学毕业生的失业率现在也比整体劳动力更高，这与疫情前的常态 形成了鲜明对比。 问题就在于此。股市上涨是因为投资者预期美联储会降息，而不是因为经济基础稳固。在某个时刻，这 种逻辑会开始显 ...

Group 1 - The next pain point for bond traders may emerge in the five-year segment of the yield curve, particularly in Japan and Germany, as both countries are experiencing shifts in their economic policies and outlooks [1][3] - Short-term bonds are heavily influenced by monetary policy expectations, while bonds with maturities of 10 years or more are more sensitive to inflation and deficit concerns, making five-year bonds a "sweet spot" in the global bond market [3] - The yield on German five-year government bonds has dropped over 30 basis points from its peak in March, while the 10-year yield has decreased by about 25 basis points [3] Group 2 - Despite ongoing selling pressure in Germany and Japan, it is expected that bearish pressure will shift from the long end of the yield curve to the mid-section, leading to underperformance of five-year bonds in these countries compared to other maturities [3] - The recent issuance of five-year Japanese government bonds saw the strongest demand since June, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in gold and silver prices, highlighting their record highs amid a weakening US dollar and expectations of imminent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1][9]. Group 1: Gold and Silver Market Performance - On Monday, the international spot gold price opened at $3642.99, reaching a high of $3685.33 and closing at $3678.69, marking an increase of $36.00 or 0.99%, continuing to set historical highs [1]. - The international spot silver price rose by 1.25%, closing at $42.68, while platinum increased by 0.68% to $1401.10, and palladium decreased by 0.18% to $1195.00 [4]. - The Wellxin precious metals index (gold, silver, palladium, platinum) opened at 7502.56 points, closing at 7574.77 points, up 68.37 points or 0.91%, also reaching a historical high [4]. Group 2: US Dollar and Economic Outlook - The US dollar index opened at 97.59 points, closing at 97.34 points, down 260 points or 0.27%, indicating a narrow downward trend [3]. - Investment banks are uniformly bearish on the dollar, with Goldman Sachs predicting a mid-2026 gold price target of $4000, while Morgan Stanley states that the dollar bear market is far from over [9]. - The article notes that funds have begun to cover their short positions on the dollar, with net short positions in the six major foreign exchange futures markets increasing to $57.21 billion, up from $34.76 billion the previous week [11]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Speculation - The article highlights a shift in market sentiment, with investors viewing gold as a hedge against inflation and dollar depreciation, as indicated by the strong performance of gold and silver despite a weakening dollar [9]. - The article warns that short-term traders may find it challenging to navigate the gold and silver markets due to their independent upward movement, which diverges from the typical correlation with the dollar [8]. - The article emphasizes the importance of accurately grasping market trends and implementing scientific risk control to avoid pitfalls in trading strategies [8].