黄金方面： 智昇研究资深分析师辰宇认为，倘若特朗普对俄罗斯的二级制裁没有落地，那么印度以及东方大国将继续大幅购买俄罗斯石 油，叠加在第二季度中国和印度已经囤了大量的石油，后续原油需求降低叠加产油国加大增产，油价将进一步下行，甚至有跌 破60美元的风险。 倘若美国对俄罗斯二级制裁落地，那么印度购买俄罗斯石油可能减少150万-200万桶/日，东方大国从俄罗斯购油量也会有一定的 影响，叠加产油国本身的补偿性减产协议，产油国增产幅度将达不到220万桶/日，难以弥补俄油缺口，则油价极有可能再度强 势走高。 技术面：日线上，连续多个交易日行情下行，显示近期行情偏弱势，指标上看，行情处于62日均线下方运行，警惕进一步下行 风险，日内关注下方65美元一线支撑情况。 日经225方面： 日线上，行情回调测试62日均线获得支撑并且收阳线，显示短期回调有望企稳，后续进一步走高机会较大。日内关注下方40400 一线支撑情况。 周一（8月4日）公布美国6月工厂订单月率录得-4.8%，市场预期-4.8%，前值8.3%。美国6月工厂订单月率虽然符合市场预期， 但远低于前值的8.3%，暗示在特朗普的关税政策之下，美国制造业极有可能面临衰退风险 ...

如果一位投资者在看完对于市场交易逻辑影响重大的新闻后立刻查看自己的投资组合，或许会非常希望 自己的持仓之中不要有将受到该事件负面影响的股票或其他资产。当美国和以色列对伊朗发动打击后油 价飙升，而4月初特朗普政府重磅宣布的面向全球激进对等关税也曾令股市大幅下挫。然而在每一种情 形中，市场都在经历吸收并定价冲击、趋于稳定并最终反弹。美国经济增长预期总体仍然保持韧性，像 英伟达、博通以及微软这样的受益于史无前例AI热潮的科技股甚至屡次创下历史新高。 即便是经验丰富的华尔街金融市场分析师，也难以精准预测任何一项事件具体在何时带来显著影响以及 将会造成具体持续多久的市场扰动。不过，随着时间推移，某些市场规律开始浮现。 来自高盛的华尔街最顶级分析师们详细汇总并研究了自2008年全球金融危机以来最重要的地缘政治事 件，包括阿拉伯之春、俄罗斯与乌克兰之间的两次局部战争、新冠疫情以及当下的全球贸易争端。 该机构主要通过追踪事件前五天与后十天的全球核心资产变动——即股票、货币、债券和大宗商品在此 期间整体价格水平的变化来衡量具体影响。这一分析让我们对哪些类型冲击通常会对市场产生重大且持 久的影响以及哪些冲击往往不足为惧有了清晰认 ...

上述数据共同反映出，特朗普关税政策导致商业不确定性加剧，从而拖累经济。下周起，大多数国家面 临的关税将升至两位数水平。 高盛的报告暗示，特朗普可能还需要为今年更多糟糕的数据做好准备。企业投资预计将以年化0.6%的 速度下降，部分原因是企业在关税上调前提前采购设备后开始削减支出。Jan Hatzius补充称，投资也将 受到"政策不确定性和对经济前景担忧"的拖累。 尽管消费者和企业支出预计仍将保持疲软，但高盛的报告指出，企业补库存以及贸易逆差的缩小可能在 短期内为美国整体GDP提供一些支撑。高盛预计，贸易逆差将从2024年底相当于GDP的3.1%缩小至 2025年底的2.4%，这是因为高关税可能减少进口，而美元走弱以及其他国家的报复措施有限有助于支 撑美国出口。 （原标题：高盛预警：关税冲击+消费投资双疲弱 美国Q4 GDP增速或骤降至1.1%） 智通财经APP获悉，高盛警告称，美国经济可能在未来几个季度进一步失去动能，此前公布的就业报告 显示，关税带来的压力正在加剧。高盛在一份报告中预测，2025年第四季度美国国内生产总值(GDP)预 计仅同比增长1.1%，远低于该行估计的2%的潜在增长水平。 高盛首席经济学家 ...

一方面，自7月中央政治局会议召开以来，"以我为主"的导向越发明确，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加 力。统筹短期稳增长与中长期结构优化，政策的定力为市场提供了"稳预期"的基石。另一方面，中国经 济内生动力持续释放，上半年国内生产总值同比增长5.3%，新消费亮点频现，新产业加速成长，新动 能澎湃迸发，高质量发展引擎强劲，不断提振投资者信心。 外资机构也以实际行动投出"信任票"，一边对相关上市公司进行密集调研，一边唱多并持续上调中国股 票评级。如高盛年内已经多次上调中国主要股指目标点位，持续维持对中国股市"超配"立场。 人民币资产"磁性"不断增强，今年上半年，外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，特别是5月、6月， 净增持规模增加至188亿美元，显示全球资本配置境内股市的意愿增强。 美国非农就业数据不及预期，本质上是全球经济周期切换的缩影。中国资产的韧性亦非偶然，而是政策 定力、经济结构升级与全球资本再平衡共同作用的结果。当全球资本转向"多元配置"和"寻找价值"，中 国资产的低估值、经济政策的广阔空间与科技创新潜力，恰与这一趋势形成共振。可以预期的是，随着 中国经济政策效能持续释放、科技创新不断突破，这种韧性有望释放对 ...

Group 1 - The benchmark index measuring sovereign currencies and stocks in developing economies has risen, marking its best performance in recent months due to a rebound in risk assets amid speculation of an imminent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve and a weakening dollar [1][2] - Investment institutions are increasingly optimistic about emerging market assets, with firms like JPMorgan and Amundi SA shifting their focus from developed markets to emerging markets like China, driven by favorable macroeconomic conditions [1][8] - The MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index has increased by nearly 0.5%, achieving its largest single-day gain in over a month, while the MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index rose by 0.9%, outperforming developed market indices [1] Group 2 - Investors are betting that the Federal Reserve will cut the benchmark interest rate as early as next month, with market concerns about the independence of the Fed and statistical agencies growing due to recent personnel changes [2][7] - The non-farm payroll report for July showed only 73,000 jobs added, with downward revisions to previous months' data totaling 258,000 jobs, leading to a significant increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts [5][6] - The Philippine peso has performed best among emerging market currencies, with most Asian currencies strengthening against the dollar, supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut [7] Group 3 - The argument for a bearish dollar index remains valid, as expectations of Fed rate cuts are likely to support emerging markets despite potential market volatility [5] - The ongoing trade policies and immigration restrictions under the Trump administration have contributed to the decline of the "American exceptionalism" narrative, prompting a shift in investment strategies towards emerging markets [8][9] - JPMorgan has reaffirmed its bullish stance on emerging market stocks, citing strong performance and favorable macroeconomic drivers, while Amundi SA has also shifted its asset allocation towards Europe and emerging markets [8][9]

日前，美国非农就业数据"爆雷"，搅动全球资本市场。中国资产则因经济内在稳定性与全球资本 再配置共振, 再度彰显韧性十足。 版权声明 证券时报各平台所有原创内容，未经书面授权，任何单位及个人不得转载。我社保留追 究相关 行 为主体 法律责任的权利。 转载与合作可联系证券时报小助理，微信ID：SecuritiesTimes END 人民币资产"磁性"不断增强，今年上半年，外资净增持境内股票和基金101亿美元，特别是5月、6月，净增持 规模增加至188亿美元，显示全球资本配置境内股市的意愿增强。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，7月美国非农就业增长放缓，劳工部还大幅下修5月和6月的新增非农就业数据， 劳动力市场显著降温。数据公布当日，美股三大指数下挫，美元指数单日大跌逾100点，黄金价格再度突破 3300美元/盎司。相比之下，中国资产走出独立行情，8月4日，A股、港股主要指数稳中有升，这背后是多重结 构性力量的支撑。 美国非农就业数据不及预期，本质上是全球经济周期切换的缩影。中国资产的韧性亦非偶然，而是政策定力、 经济结构升级与全球资本再平衡共同作用的结果。当全球资本转向"多元配置"和"寻找价值"，中国资产的低估 值、经 ...

证券时报记者 吴少龙 日前，美国非农就业数据"爆雷"，搅动全球资本市场。中国资产则因经济内在稳定性与全球资本再 配置共振, 再度彰显韧性十足。 美国劳工部公布的数据显示，7月美国非农就业增长放缓，劳工部还大幅下修5月和6月的新增非农 就业数据，劳动力市场显著降温。数据公布当日，美股三大指数下挫，美元指数单日大跌逾100点，黄 金价格再度突破3300美元/盎司。相比之下，中国资产走出独立行情，8月4日，A股、港股主要指数稳中 有升，这背后是多重结构性力量的支撑。 美国非农就业数据不及预期，本质上是全球经济周期切换的缩影。中国资产的韧性亦非偶然，而是 政策定力、经济结构升级与全球资本再平衡共同作用的结果。当全球资本转向"多元配置"和"寻找价 值"，中国资产的低估值、经济政策的广阔空间与科技创新潜力，恰与这一趋势形成共振。可以预期的 是，随着中国经济政策效能持续释放、科技创新不断突破，这种韧性有望释放对全球资本更大的吸引 力。 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请 ...

Core Viewpoint - Major banks including Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank, and Evercore have warned that the S&P 500 index may decline by 10% to 15% in the coming weeks to months due to high valuations and weakening economic indicators, despite a strong rebound over the past three months [1][5][6] Group 1: Market Performance and Predictions - The S&P 500 index has risen sharply since April, reaching historical highs, with a 1.47% increase on Monday, closing at 6329.94 points [2][6] - Analysts predict a potential adjustment of up to 10% this quarter, with Evercore forecasting a possible decline of 15% due to tariffs impacting consumer and corporate finances [5][6] - The S&P 500 index's 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently surpassed 76, indicating overbought conditions, which historically precedes market corrections [6] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Market Sentiment - Recent economic data shows a resurgence in inflation, alongside slowing job growth and consumer spending, raising concerns about the U.S. economic outlook [6] - Historically, the S&P 500 has performed poorly in August and September, averaging a decline of 0.7% during these months over the past 30 years [6] - Increased costs for hedging against market downturns are evident, with the implied volatility premium for put options on the SPDR S&P 500 ETF reaching its highest level since the regional banking crisis in 2023 [6] Group 3: Investment Strategy and Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term bearish sentiments, analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook, suggesting investors should continue holding positions, particularly in companies benefiting from the AI trend [7] - Historical patterns indicate that the S&P 500 typically experiences minor corrections of about 3% every 1.5 to 2 months and larger corrections of over 5% every 3 to 4 months [7] - Market participants appear to be adopting a strategy of buying during corrections, as evidenced by the recent uptick in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices [8]

Core Viewpoint - CICC's stock price reached 35.92 yuan as of August 4, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.08% from the previous trading day, with a total market capitalization of 173.395 billion yuan [1] Company Overview - CICC is a leading investment bank in China, engaged in investment banking, equity business, fixed income, and wealth management, with headquarters in Beijing and branches in Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Shenzhen [1] IPO Performance - From January to July 2025, CICC sponsored 16 Hong Kong IPOs with an underwriting scale of 3.5 billion USD, securing the top market share [1] - CICC sponsored three out of the top five IPO projects in Hong Kong, capturing 60% of the market share in this segment [1] Capital Flow - On August 4, 2025, CICC experienced a net inflow of 25.4235 million yuan in principal funds, accounting for 0.02% of its circulating market value [1] - Over the past five trading days, CICC faced a cumulative net outflow of 286.5784 million yuan, representing 0.27% of its circulating market value [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the resilience of Chinese assets amidst the backdrop of disappointing U.S. non-farm employment data, which has caused fluctuations in global capital markets [1][2] - U.S. non-farm employment growth has slowed down, with significant downward revisions to the employment data for May and June, indicating a cooling labor market [1] - In contrast, Chinese assets have shown an independent upward trend, supported by multiple structural forces, including a clear macro policy direction and the release of domestic economic momentum [1][2] Group 2 - Foreign capital has increasingly shown interest in Chinese assets, with a net increase of $10.1 billion in domestic stocks and funds in the first half of the year, particularly a surge to $18.8 billion in May and June [2] - The resilience of Chinese assets is attributed to a combination of policy stability, economic structural upgrades, and global capital rebalancing, aligning with the trend of diversified capital allocation and value-seeking [2] - As the effectiveness of Chinese economic policies continues to unfold and technological innovations progress, the attractiveness of Chinese assets to global capital is expected to increase [2]