来源：投资界 原标题：黑石：重新审视60%的股票配置 来源：投资界综合 几十年来，60/40投资组合一直为投资者带来稳健回报，其两大组成部分各司其职：占比60%的股票配 置旨在驱动增长，占比40%的债券配置则提供收益并发挥分散风险的作用。 正如《60/40传统投资组合的再思考：如何解决40%难题》一文中所探讨的，这一投资组合中的固定收 益部分正面临前所未有的挑战。而股票部分同样亟待重新审视——从私募股权的增长到IPO的减少，资 本市场正经历结构性变化。具备前瞻视野的投资者注意到，私募股权在60%的股票配置中展现出天然的 互补优势：其不仅能获得股票增长收益，又可以通过私营企业与主动管理实现价值增长。 全新的市场格局 私营企业规模庞大，但更重要的是，这些企业在推动全球经济增长方面发挥着关键作用。 在营收超过2.5亿美元的企业中，约有86%为私营企业。这一市场的独特优势在于其多元化：它能让投 资者接触到不同行业、地域和商业模式的企业，而这些企业往往在公开市场中占比极低甚至无法投资。 无论是创始人主导的软件公司、能源转型基础设施，还是欧洲的媒体集团或亚洲的消费品牌，私募股权 都为投资者提供了接触各类增长主题和交易类型 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current investment landscape is characterized by extreme speculation in the U.S. stock market, which is deemed unhealthy, with a strong emphasis on gold as a true asset class and a recommended allocation of around 15% in investment portfolios [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Assessment - The U.S. stock market is described as one of the most unhealthy markets in the history of the speaker's career, with classic valuation metrics like price-to-earnings ratios and market capitalization ratios reaching unsustainable levels [2][3]. - The current enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is compared to past market frenzies, such as the electric power boom, suggesting that while transformative technologies can change the world, they often lead to overpricing of future earnings [3]. Group 2: Gold as an Investment - Gold is highlighted as a key asset in investment portfolios, with the speaker expressing a strong bullish outlook, stating it is now recognized as a legitimate asset class rather than just a refuge for survivalists or speculators [4][5]. - The performance of gold has been exceptional, being the best-performing asset this year and over the past 12 months, despite a recent consolidation phase [5]. Group 3: Portfolio Strategy - A significant reduction in exposure to traditional financial assets is recommended, with a shift away from the conventional 60/40 stock-bond allocation. The speaker suggests that stocks should not exceed 40% of the portfolio, and fixed income should only account for about 25% [6]. - The remaining portion of the portfolio should be allocated to tangible assets like gold and cash, reflecting a cautious approach given the high market valuations and potential economic risks [6].

Group 1 - The stock market has risen for six consecutive months, driven by optimism around artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings, and a loose financial environment [1] - The Federal Reserve's Chairman Powell indicated that a rate cut in December is "far from certain," with a split among officials regarding the decision [1][2] - The bond market reacted sharply, with significant increases in bond yields and a rise in the dollar, as the likelihood of a December rate cut dropped from 90% to about 50% [1] Group 2 - The divergence in opinions within the Federal Reserve complicates the balance between inflation and employment, leading to potential inefficacies in bond trading strategies [2] - Bill Gross, a prominent investor, is selling U.S. Treasury futures, betting on high fiscal deficits and massive debt issuance to continue pushing yields higher [2][5] - The Nasdaq 100 index rose by 2% despite bond market volatility, indicating resilience in tech stocks [3] Group 3 - High U.S. Treasury yields make holding cash in dollars more attractive for global investors, potentially supporting the dollar against major currencies [4] - Morgan Stanley's currency trading team shifted to a neutral stance on the dollar after previously being bearish, suggesting a change in market sentiment [4] - TS Lombard is betting that U.S. short-term rates will exceed Japan's by year-end, reflecting differing central bank policy paths [4] Group 4 - Bill Gross warns of excessive risks in the U.S. financial system due to expanding deficits and a weakening dollar, maintaining a bearish outlook on U.S. Treasuries [5]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices continue to rise, approaching $3,800 per ounce, driven by strong demand and ongoing economic uncertainty, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 1: Market Sentiment - A key survey of institutional investors indicates that "speculative frenzy" has not yet formed, suggesting potential for further price increases [2] - According to the Bank of America Global Fund Manager Survey, 39% of fund managers reported zero allocation to gold in their portfolios, down from 47% in August, indicating significant untapped investment potential [2][3] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Strong physical demand from key markets supports the current gold price increase, with China's non-monetary gold imports soaring to 104 tons in July, significantly above the five-year average [2] - Anticipated demand in India is expected to rise with the upcoming festival season, particularly during Navratri, which may lead to increased buying activity [2] Group 3: Price Projections - Market experts maintain a bullish outlook, with Goldmoney founder James Turk setting a short-term target price of $4,000 per ounce for gold [2] - Economist Peter Schiff supports this optimistic view, noting Morgan Stanley's adjustment of the classic "60/40 portfolio" to include gold, which he interprets as a "sell" rating for U.S. Treasuries [3]

Group 1 - The current market environment suggests that a 60% equity, 20% fixed income, and 20% gold investment strategy is more effective in hedging against inflation risks, as the historical yield advantage of U.S. stocks over government bonds is at a low point [1][3] - The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio is being challenged, with gold now seen as a more valuable asset for resilience compared to U.S. Treasuries, while high-quality stocks can maintain profit growth in inflationary conditions [3] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a weak month for U.S. stocks, yet in 2023, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have repeatedly reached new highs [3] Group 2 - The return of alpha returns indicates a shift from a broad market movement to structural opportunities, allowing investors to achieve above-average returns through precise industry selection and stock picking, with gold providing foundational risk hedging [4] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,700 per ounce, setting a new historical record, driven by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar [3]

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - Analysts from Swissquote Bank indicate that improved global economic growth expectations may enhance investor confidence, leading to a potential rise in major stock indices as corporate earnings outlook improves and risk appetite increases [1] - The lifting of tariffs could reduce friction costs in international trade, promoting operational efficiency for multinational companies and boosting overall economic activity [1] - The US dollar is expected to attract investment as risk aversion diminishes and economic growth prospects improve [1] Group 2: Impact of US Court Ruling on Tariffs - Moody's analysts highlight that the US court's decision to block tariff increases is a positive development for emerging markets severely affected by high reciprocal tariffs, as it may alleviate the cost burden on exports [2] - The uncertainty surrounding the government's potential appeal against the court ruling may lead investors to adopt a wait-and-see approach before making significant investment decisions [2][3] Group 3: Regional Economic Indicators - Westpac Banking's economists report a significant decline in New Zealand's business confidence index from 49.3% in April to 36.6%, indicating heightened concerns over trade conflicts [2] - The construction sector experienced the largest drop in confidence, reflecting specific challenges faced by the industry [2] - The Korean International Trade Association anticipates a reduction in the trade surplus between South Korea and the US, projecting a surplus of $55.6 billion in 2024, a 25% increase year-on-year [4] Group 4: Market Reactions and Investment Strategies - Analysts from ABC Refinery note that the US court ruling has led to a significant rise in the US dollar, which in turn has pressured gold prices lower [4] - Goldman Sachs suggests that traditional 60/40 investment portfolios face greater challenges amid rising global macro uncertainty, recommending increased allocations to gold and oil to enhance portfolio resilience [3]

Core Insights - The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio is underperforming due to ineffective hedging against market downturns caused by tariff policies and economic uncertainties [1][3] - Goldman Sachs analysts recommend alternative assets like gold and oil to better hedge against inflation shocks affecting stock and bond returns [3][6] Group 1: Market Performance - Recent U.S. Treasury bonds have failed to protect against stock market declines, particularly during periods of heightened economic concerns and rising borrowing costs [1][3] - Historical trends show that stocks and bonds can experience simultaneous declines, especially during inflation or commodity shocks [3] Group 2: Alternative Investment Recommendations - Goldman Sachs suggests incorporating gold and oil futures into the 60/40 portfolio to reduce annual volatility from 10% to below 7% [3] - For investors with a holding period of over five years, it is advised to overweight gold assets due to their negative correlation with stocks and bonds [6] Group 3: Gold Market Insights - Gold has risen 26.6% since 2025, driven by concerns over U.S. policy, with expectations that these concerns will persist in the short term [6] - Factors such as fiscal sustainability, debt issues, and threats to the Federal Reserve's independence are seen as bullish for gold [6] - If concerns escalate, private investors may push gold prices beyond current forecasts of $3,700 per ounce by year-end and $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [6] Group 4: Oil Market Insights - Goldman Sachs recommends maintaining a positive but underweight position in oil, as supply concerns are expected to diminish due to anticipated ample production capacity in 2025-2026 [6]