1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global risk preference continues to rise due to the weakening US dollar index, with expectations of Fed rate - cuts and positive developments in trade agreements. In China, economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies are boosting domestic risk preference. Different asset classes have different short - term trends: stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may remain high and oscillatory, and various commodity sectors have their own specific trends [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, Trump urges the Fed to ease monetary policy, and Fed official Bostic expects rate cuts. The US dollar index falls, and global risk preference rises. Domestically, China's June manufacturing PMI is 49.7%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, and consumption - stimulating policies are introduced. Stocks may have a short - term oscillatory rebound, treasury bonds may be high and oscillatory, and different commodity sectors have different trends [2]. Stock Index - Supported by sectors like military, gaming, and semiconductors, the domestic stock market rises. China's economic growth is accelerating, and consumption - stimulating policies boost domestic risk preference. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and trade negotiations. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is supported by a weak US dollar but is under downward pressure due to a weakening of the market's risk - aversion sentiment. The US economic data is weak, and Powell's dovish stance supports the gold price. In the short - term, gold may be oscillatory and weak, but its safe - haven property remains strong [4]. Black Metals Steel - The steel spot market rebounds, but the futures price rises and then falls. Policy is favorable, but traders face poor sales, and the cost support weakens. Supply remains high, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is stable. Demand remains resilient as steel mills' profits are high and iron - water production is expected to stay high. Supply may fall after the peak shipping season. Iron ore prices may oscillate in the short - term and may decline in the medium - term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are flat. Demand is okay as steel production rises. The prices of these ferroalloys are expected to oscillate in the short - term [6]. Chemicals Soda Ash - The soda ash price is weak. Supply is abundant, demand is low, and profits are decreasing. In the long - term, the high - supply, high - inventory, and low - demand situation persists, and short positions can be held [7]. Glass - The glass price is weak. Supply is stable, demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. It is expected to be weak and oscillatory in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Trump's tariff hints and high production, potential weakening demand, and inventory slowdown are factors. The price may fall when certain conditions are met. Attention should be paid to US trade negotiations and potential copper tariffs [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate falls. Downstream demand slows, but the supply side shows some changes. The market is in a loose situation, and opportunities may come after a rebound [9]. Aluminum - The LME inventory increases, and domestic aluminum products are accumulating inventory. The de - stocking inflection point has arrived, and the price may be affected [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It is in the off - season, but tight scrap - aluminum supply supports the price. It may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - Supply is tight, and demand is in the off - season. The price may oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside will be restricted in the medium - term [9]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Oil prices fall due to speculation of OPEC+ production increase and the easing of Middle - East supply concerns. It will continue to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Asphalt - The asphalt price is strongly oscillatory as oil prices are low. Inventory is being depleted, and it will follow the oil price in the short - term [11]. PX - PX has strong cost support but faces uncertainties from falling oil prices. It will follow the oil price and oscillate strongly [11]. PTA - The demand for PTA may remain low in the long - term. The price's upside is limited [12]. Ethylene Glycol - The price center falls with oil prices, and the downstream demand is weak. The price may oscillate [12]. Short - fiber - Short - fiber inventory is high, and the price will decline as the cost falls. It will follow the cost and oscillate weakly [12]. Methanol - The methanol price is supported by maintenance and low imports but is suppressed by factors like high inventory and poor downstream profits. It will oscillate strongly [12]. PP - The PP price is expected to oscillate weakly due to high production, low demand, and geopolitical support [12]. LLDPE - The LLDPE price will oscillate weakly as supply increases and demand is in the off - season [14]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The US 2025 soybean planting area estimate is lower than expected, with different trends for different contract months [15]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the market sentiment is weak. The weak basis situation is expected to continue, but stable US soybean prices provide some support [16]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - The supply of soybean oil is abundant, and inventory is recovering seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil is improving. Both may be under pressure [17]. Palm Oil - The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and it is expected to continue to weaken due to factors like the end of policy benefits and a slowdown in exports [18]. Corn - The corn spot price is strong, but the futures price is weak. After the wheat substitution season, the corn price is likely to rise [18]. Live Pigs - The spot price of live pigs rebounds as group - farms reduce出栏. The demand is weak, but the price has some resilience. Attention should be paid to the epidemic risk in North China [19].

Economic Growth and Price Trends - China's GDP growth is expected to remain above 5% for three consecutive quarters, but price levels continue to weaken[1] - CPI has shown negative growth for three consecutive months, while PPI has dropped to -3.3%[1] - In contrast to 2015, when growth and prices were negatively correlated, the current situation shows high growth with persistent price weakness[1] Historical Comparison - In 2015, GDP growth slowed from 7.1% in the first half to 6.9% by Q4, with PPI declining by 5.9% in Q4, the lowest since 2010[1] - Policy easing began in late 2014, with significant measures taken in 2015, leading to a recovery in both growth and prices by mid-2017[1] Current Economic State - The current economic state is characterized as atypical, with high growth not translating into price increases, indicating a potential trend of prolonged price weakness[1] - Marginal improvements in domestic prices are noted, with core CPI showing signs of recovery since Q4 of the previous year[1] Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential global recession impacts[2]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The cement industry is accelerating its overseas expansion, particularly in Africa, which is seen as a significant investment opportunity due to its rapid population growth and urbanization [3][20] - The recent performance of the construction materials sector shows a positive trend, with the CITIC construction materials index rising by 2.63% [12] - The report highlights the importance of monetary policy in supporting economic recovery, emphasizing a coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal policies [2][14] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index increased by 1.95%, while the construction materials sector rose by 2.63% [12] - Notable stock performances include Saitex New Materials (+27.0%) and Guotong Shares (+14.2%) [12] Cement Industry Expansion - Recent data shows a decline in property sales in major cities, with a year-on-year decrease of 10.14% [2][15] - Companies like Western Cement and Huaxin Cement are making significant moves in Africa, with Western Cement planning to sell assets in Xinjiang to support its expansion [3][20] - Huaxin Cement's new project in Zambia has successfully increased production capacity, indicating a trend of overseas investment in the cement sector [3] Key Recommendations - The report recommends a focus on companies such as China National Materials, Honghe Technology, Western Cement, Huaxin Cement, and others, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing market dynamics [20][4] - The report suggests that traditional building materials are nearing a cyclical bottom, while new materials are expected to continue their growth trajectory [21]

瑞达期货（002961）分析称，宏观面：财政部：国家发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于7月下 达。玻璃方面，供应端：玻璃产线冷修增加一条，整体产量小幅下滑，维持在底部，刚需生产迹象明 显。行业整体利润不佳，继续下滑，后续复产力度恐继续下行。需求端当前地产形势不容乐观，5月房 地产数据显示下滑明显，需求预计进一步走弱。下游深加工订单下滑，采购以刚需为主，汽车玻璃厂备 货量增加难以抵消地产相关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差维持正常范围，后续市场交 易更多是政策预期，预计反弹高度和力度将较为有限操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思 维。 华联期货指出，上周1条产线放水，2条前期点火产线陆续出玻璃，以及前期热修产线恢复，周熔量环比 略有减少，后续仍有产线点火，日熔量将低位回升。厂家库存环比小幅去库，其中华北地区去库较明 显，华东地区也有小幅去库，其它地区均小幅累库。短期玻璃估值相对偏低驱动反弹，不过淡季需求改 善有限，库存仍处同期高位，弱现实令玻璃价格持续承压，预计短期震荡偏强。操作上，建议维持反弹 做空思路，或卖出虚值看涨期权。 西南期货表示，多数深加工企业仍然刚需维持，实际供需矛盾不突出，市 ...

现货价格及基差 品种 6月27日 6月26日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 14100 13850 250 1.81% 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) ES -190 245 128.95% 元/吨 泰标混合胶报价 13700 13600 100 0.74% 非标价差 -345 -440 95 21.59% 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 47.15 46.95 0.20 0.43% 泰铢/公斤 胶水：国际市场：FOB中间价 57.25 -0.25 -0.44% 57.00 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 12600 12600 0 0.00% 13200 0 天然橡胶：胶水：西双版纳州 13200 0.00% 元/吨 原料：市场主流价：海南 12400 12400 0 0.00% 外胶原料：市场主流价：海南 9000 9000 0.00 0.00% 月间价差 合约 6月27日 6月26日 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 9-1价差 -825 -845 20 2.37% 1-5价差 -22 -25 元/吨 -30 -83.33% 5-9价差 880 875 5 0.57% 基本面数据 单位 指标 前值 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and made changes in policy tone, monetary policy thinking, and exchange - rate statements [6]. - Copper prices are expected to remain firm due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. It is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. - Glass is in a short - term shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Summary by Related Catalogs Central Bank Policy - The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy committee meeting removed "combine the implementation of the strategy of expanding domestic demand with deepening supply - side structural reform" and added "put strengthening the domestic large - cycle in a more prominent position and coordinate the relationship between total supply and total demand". It also removed "opportunistically cut reserve requirements and interest rates" and added "flexibly grasp the intensity and rhythm of policy implementation". The exchange - rate statement was also adjusted [6]. Copper - The price of copper has risen due to the resonance of micro and macro factors. The spot is tight, with low domestic and rapidly falling LME inventories and continuous spot premiums. The overseas logic has a more obvious pulling effect on prices. It is expected that the price will remain firm, and it is recommended to pay attention to internal - external reverse arbitrage and hold domestic copper term positive arbitrage [7][8]. Glass - Glass has been in a downward trend in the first half of the year due to weak real - estate demand, insufficient supply contraction, high factory inventories, and large warrant pressures. After reaching a low - valuation level in early June, it rebounded. Currently, it is in a shock market, with limited short - term upside and caution needed for short - selling at low levels [9]. Other Commodities - For other commodities such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., the report provides their price trends, fundamental data, and trend intensities. For example, zinc is at a short - term high, and attention should be paid to volume and price; lead has support from peak - season expectations [12][15][18].

从钢铁行业看中国价格复苏近在咫尺 20250627 摘要 明整个链条最脆弱环节已经触底。 Q&A 如何看待中国工业价格的复苏及其背后的供需关系？ 中国工业价格的复苏主要受供需关系变化驱动。过去几年，工业价格持续下行， 约束了供给，导致资本开支周期达到历史底部。部分行业逐渐走出供给过剩状 态，进入再资本开支过程。然而，中国大规模资本开支的可能性较小，因为脱 离债务周期的经济无法支持大规模投资。因此，企业在微观层面表现出谨慎态 度。从中下游制造业来看，其价格企稳和利润改善反映了供给约束带来的积极 影响。上游原材料板块则持续去库存，上游价格跌不动，这表明整个工业链条 正在见底。 钢铁行业在当前经济周期中的表现如何？ 钢铁行业经历了十年的产能收缩，目前已达到供需稳态。尽管建筑需求下降， 但钢铁行业通过减少投资实现了平衡。在经济周期底部时，钢铁价格不再下跌， 而利润却在不断上升。这反映出供给约束带来的利润修复，以及需求回落对钢 铁行业的影响有限。此外，贸易企业普遍持有现金而非库存，这进一步说明社 会库存处于低位。当上游原材料如煤炭和焦煤开始减产且价格跌不动时，这表 如何判断中国工业整体是否已经见底？ 从中下游制造业到上 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the building materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the real estate market policies are continuously tightening, creating investment opportunities in building materials. Recent policies from the central bank and local governments aim to support home purchases and improve safety in construction sites, indicating a shift towards a balanced supply-demand dynamic in the real estate market [3][4] - Recommended stocks in the consumer building materials sector include Sankeshu (channel penetration and retail expansion), Dongfang Yuhong (waterproof leader with optimized operational structure), Weixing New Materials (high-quality operations with a significant retail business), and Jianlang Wujin. Beneficiary stocks include Beixin Building Materials (gypsum board leader with diversified expansion in coatings and waterproof sectors) [3] - The report also notes that the National Development and Reform Commission has issued a plan for energy conservation and carbon reduction in the cement industry, aiming to control cement clinker capacity to around 1.8 billion tons by the end of 2025, which is expected to accelerate the iteration of energy-saving and efficient equipment [3][4] Market Performance - The building materials index increased by 2.41% in the week from June 23 to June 27, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.95%, resulting in a 0.46 percentage point advantage [4][13] - Over the past three months, the CSI 300 index has risen by 0.88%, while the building materials index has decreased by 3.79%, indicating a 4.67 percentage point underperformance [4][13] - In the past year, the CSI 300 index has increased by 13.29%, while the building materials index has only risen by 7.19%, showing a 6.11 percentage point underperformance [4][13] Cement Sector - As of June 27, 2025, the average price of P.O42.5 bulk cement nationwide was 284.72 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.47% month-on-month. The price trends varied by region, with Northeast China seeing a significant drop of 21.95% [6][24] - The clinker inventory ratio reached 69.36%, an increase of 1.27 percentage points from the previous month [6][25] Glass Sector - The report indicates that the spot price of float glass as of June 27, 2025, was 1200.53 yuan/ton, reflecting a slight increase of 0.13%. The inventory of float glass decreased by 2.51%, with a total of 59 million weight boxes [6][75] - The average price of photovoltaic glass was 120.70 yuan/weight box, down by 3.44% [6][78] Fiberglass Sector - The report notes that the price of fiberglass remains stable, with various types of fiberglass priced between 3400 to 6600 yuan/ton depending on the type and region [6][3] Consumer Building Materials - The report tracks the prices of key raw materials for consumer building materials, noting slight fluctuations. For instance, the price of asphalt remained stable at 4520 yuan/ton, while the price of acrylic acid increased by 1.87% to 6825 yuan/ton [6][3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Macro and Stock Index - Domestic economic data shows marginal improvement, and six departments including the central bank have issued guidelines to support consumption, with a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care, promoting the entry of long - term funds into the market. The international Middle - East situation is short - term eased but still has the risk of recurrence. IC/IM maintains a deep discount. Short - sellers should choose the near - month contract to avoid basis fluctuations in the far - month contract, while long - term investors can focus on basis convergence opportunities. The long - IM and short - IH arbitrage portfolio may still have room, but beware of the callback pressure of small - cap stocks at high levels [2]. Crude Oil - The conflict between Israel and Iran has eased, and the risk premium of crude oil has shrunk significantly. The price has fallen sharply and is seeking support at the 500 - yuan/barrel level of the SC main contract. WTI main contract should focus on the support around $65/barrel [3]. Gold - Fed Chairman Powell reiterated "not in a hurry to cut interest rates", but Trump's dissatisfaction has led to concerns about the Fed's policy continuity and independence. The weakening dollar supports gold, while the easing of the Middle - East situation weakens its short - term safe - haven demand. The current gold price is in a shock range, and attention should be paid to the US GDP and PCE data [4][5]. Silver - The internal policy divergence of the Fed has intensified, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts has decreased, suppressing the short - term upward movement of precious metals. The demand growth in key areas of silver is slowing down, but it may have room for a supplementary rise compared with gold. Pay attention to the support at $34.8 - 35.0/ounce [6]. Chemicals - PTA and ethylene glycol may fluctuate in the short term. PVC, PP, and plastics still fluctuate with market sentiment in the short term due to weak fundamentals. Soda ash is recommended to be treated with a bottom - shock idea, and glass is recommended to be treated with an interval - shock idea [7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15]. Agricultural Products - Corn is in an upward channel but may face short - term callback pressure, and attention should be paid to the support at 2350 yuan/ton. Peanuts are expected to fluctuate in the short term. Cotton's upside space is limited. Bean II and soybean meal may test the platform support in the short term. Soybean oil may fluctuate in the short term. Hogs may fluctuate, and eggs may oscillate at a low level [19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28]. Metals - Shanghai copper is waiting for new signals. Shanghai aluminum can be operated in the short term by aggressive investors or waited by conservative investors. Alumina shows a weak adjustment trend. Cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate in the short term. Lithium carbonate may continue to be under pressure, and industrial silicon and polysilicon may oscillate at the bottom [29][30][31][32][33][34]. Black Metals - Stainless steel may fluctuate weakly at a low level. Rebar and hot - rolled coils can be considered to go long lightly at low levels. Iron ore may oscillate in the short term, and coal may also oscillate in the short term [35][36][37][38][39]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Macro and Stock Index - **Macro Situation**: Domestic economic data improves marginally, and policies support consumption and long - term funds entry. Internationally, the Middle - East situation is unstable [2]. - **Market Analysis**: Different stock index futures have different trading volumes, basis rates, and capital flows. The style differentiation continues [2]. - **Reference Views**: Provide suggestions for short - sellers, long - term investors, and arbitrageurs, and remind of risks [2]. Crude Oil - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: The conflict between Israel and Iran eases, and the risk premium of crude oil shrinks [3]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical factors lead to price fluctuations, and the price is sensitive to external factors. The summer peak season supports the price to some extent [3]. - **Reference Views**: Focus on the support level of WTI [3]. Gold - **Macro and Geopolitical Situation**: Powell's statement and Trump's dissatisfaction affect the dollar and gold. The easing of the Middle - East situation weakens the safe - haven demand for gold [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Gold price is supported by the weak dollar and interest - rate cut expectations, and shows a short - term bearish signal [4][5]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Focus on key economic data and the support level of gold [5]. Silver - **Market Price**: The price of spot silver shows a narrow - range shock [6]. - **Market Analysis**: Policy divergence in the Fed, slowing demand growth in key areas, and geopolitical factors affect silver price [6]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Silver may have room for a supplementary rise, and pay attention to the support level [6]. Chemicals PTA and Ethylene Glycol - **Spot Information**: The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol in East China are the same, with a decline and a certain basis [7][8]. - **Market Analysis**: Middle - East geopolitical easing affects the cost. There are device overhauls and restarts, and the demand is weak [7][8]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval fluctuation [7][8]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of PVC are stable [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate changes, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory decreases [9]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [9]. PP - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of PP decline [10]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate rises, demand decreases, and inventory increases [10]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [10][11]. Plastics - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions of plastics have different trends [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply capacity utilization rate decreases slightly, demand has a small change, and inventory decreases [12]. - **Reference Views**: Fluctuate with market sentiment due to weak fundamentals [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases slightly, inventory increases, and demand is average [13]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term bottom - shock [13][14]. Glass - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are stable [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply decreases slightly, inventory decreases slightly, and demand is weak [15]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [15]. Rubber - **Market Price**: The prices of different types of rubber and raw materials are provided [16]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by crude oil and trade policies, the supply is loose, and the demand is affected by the trade war [16]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock and focus on downstream开工率 [16][17]. Methanol - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions change [18]. - **Market Analysis**: Futures price rises, port inventory increases, supply increases, and demand has different trends [18]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock and focus on Iranian supply and domestic inventory [18]. Agricultural Products Corn - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [19]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report has limited support, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors [20]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term callback and focus on the support level [20]. Peanuts - **Spot Price**: The prices in different regions are provided [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The expected increase in planting area may put pressure on the price, and the current supply - demand is weak [21]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [21]. Cotton - **Spot Information**: The prices of domestic and foreign cotton are provided [22]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA report is positive, and the domestic supply is expected to be loose, with short - term supply - demand contradictions [22]. - **Reference Views**: Limited upside space [22]. Bean II - **Spot Information**: The import costs of soybeans from different countries are provided [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The Middle - East conflict eases, and the weather affects the market [23]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [23]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [24]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by macro - policies, international factors, and domestic supply - demand [24][25]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term test of the support level [25]. Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The prices in different regions are provided [26]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by international and domestic supply - demand factors [26]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [26]. Hogs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions change [27]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the price, and the price may oscillate [27]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term oscillation, and focus on the slaughter situation [27]. Eggs - **Spot Market**: The prices in different regions decline [28]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is still excessive, and demand is weak in the off - season [28]. - **Reference Views**: Low - level oscillation, and focus on farmers' culling willingness [28]. Metals Shanghai Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of electrolytic copper rises, and the import index falls [29]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical and policy factors affect the market, and the copper market is in a complex situation [29]. - **Reference Views**: Wait for new signals [29]. Shanghai Aluminum - **Spot Information**: The price of aluminum rises [30]. - **Market Analysis**: Geopolitical risks, supply - demand situation, and inventory level affect the price [30]. - **Reference Views**: Different strategies for different types of investors [30]. Alumina - **Spot Information**: The price of alumina falls [31]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is excessive, demand is average, and inventory is high [31]. - **Reference Views**: Weak adjustment [31]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Spot Information**: The price is stable [32]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost support and supply - demand contradictions affect the price [32]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term interval shock [32]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate rise [33]. - **Market Analysis**: Cost, supply, and demand factors lead to weak fundamentals and high inventory [33]. - **Reference Views**: Considered as an oversold rebound, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [33]. Industrial Silicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of industrial silicon fall [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and short - selling opportunities for aggressive investors [34]. Polysilicon - **Spot Information**: The prices of different types of polysilicon are stable [34]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and inventory is high [34]. - **Reference Views**: Bottom - shock, and consider profit - taking for short - sellers [34]. Black Metals Stainless Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of cold - rolled stainless steel rises [35]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support is weak, supply is high, and demand is weak [35]. - **Reference Views**: Weak shock at a low level [35]. Rebar - **Spot Information**: The price of rebar in Shanghai falls [36]. - **Market Analysis**: The market shows a shock trend, with cost and demand factors [36]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [36]. Hot - Rolled Coils - **Spot Information**: The price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai is stable [37]. - **Market Analysis**: The market is stabilizing, with cost and demand factors [37]. - **Reference Views**: Consider going long lightly at low levels [37]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The prices of iron ore indexes and varieties are provided [38]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors, and external factors affect the price [38]. - **Reference Views**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and production resumption [38]. Coal - **Spot Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke change [39]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors affect the prices of coking coal and coke [39]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - term shock, and focus on inventory and policies [39].

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Bond Market - The financial market experienced increased volatility, with short-term government bonds becoming the preferred choice for risk-averse investors as expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts rose [1] - The yield curve steepened, with the difference between five-year and thirty-year Treasury yields approaching the highest level since 2021, indicating a consensus that short-term bond yields will decline faster than long-term yields [1] - Federal Reserve officials, including Waller and Bowman, signaled a dovish stance, suggesting that if inflation continues to improve, rate cuts could begin as early as July, with a 20% probability for action in September [2] Group 2: Sanyou Group's Achievements - Sanyou Group's subsidiaries in electronic chemicals, chlor-alkali, and silicon industries were recognized as "Advanced Intelligent Factories" by the Hebei Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, highlighting the group's strength in smart manufacturing [3][4] - The recognition reflects significant progress in digital transformation and the establishment of a "Smart Sanyou" framework, which aims to accelerate the intelligent upgrade of the entire industrial chain [4] Group 3: Soda Ash Market Analysis - The domestic soda ash market showed a weak and fluctuating trend, with prices gradually declining due to a supply surplus and weak demand, leading to increased industry inventory [5][6] - The market is characterized by high operating rates and a cautious purchasing strategy from downstream enterprises, resulting in a continued bearish outlook for soda ash prices [5][6] - As of June 26, the soda ash industry operating rate was approximately 84%, with total inventory rising to 176.65 million tons, reflecting a 2.20% increase from the previous week [14][16] Group 4: Production Profitability and Cost Analysis - As of June 26, the profitability of the soda ash production methods showed a significant decline, with the profit from the soda ash method dropping to 26.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 73.87% from the previous week [10][11] - The overall cost remained stable, but the continuous decline in soda ash prices has led to a substantial drop in profitability [10]