大洋彼岸没两天，交通运输部也不惯着，十月十号紧急发公告，明说"你收我也收"，从二五年十月起，中国港口直接加码，每净吨收400块，隔半年又涨， 三年翻近三倍，管你是美国老板、美国旗、美国建，沾边的都别想跑，老王在货代群里发语音，话糙理不糙，"这年头搬砖都讲对等，谁先抡起锤子，谁就 等着挨回锤"。 往年沿海码头最热闹的时候，船老大一根烟能吹三圈，轮机长一口咸菜一口白粥，嘴里念叨着"赚的是辛苦钱"，那时候讲的是"通关提效、服务先行"，小本 生意靠的就是船跑得快、货走得顺，谁都信咱自家造船便宜结实，靠得住，码头工人按吨计件，干一票顶仨月工资，哪像现在，一口气多了十几张单子，光 港口费一项就够吃俩礼拜泡面。 今年美国那头变了味，打着"重振造船业"的旗号，实则套路深，船只一到港，先按净吨收费，明年涨，后年还涨，2028年顶到每吨140美元，谁都知道这盘 棋不是给船东下的，是割全球航运一茬韭菜，数据摆着，2026年十大班轮公司光这个费就多花32亿美元，全球都得跟着肉疼，中远海运集团一个企业就扛一 半，谁撑得住，谁先哭出来。 码头工人私下里抱怨，原来一趟航线能赚五万美金，现在光进港手续费就快顶半趟货值，货主不签单，船东死扛， ...

一、【早盘盘面回顾】 智通财经10月16日讯，市场早盘震荡拉升，创业板指盘中涨超1%。沪深两市半日成交额1.21万亿，较 上个交易日缩量578亿。盘面上热点快速轮动，主要集中在存储芯片和医药方向。半导体板块震荡走 强，存储芯片方向领涨，香农芯创触及20cm涨停创历史新高，德明利、云汉芯城封板。医药板块延续 强势，贵州百灵、罗欣药业双双涨停。港口航运表现活跃，海通发展涨停。下跌方面，可控核聚变概念 股集体下跌，中洲特材、合锻智能大跌。截至收盘，沪指涨0.1%，深成指涨0.15%，创业板指涨 0.69%。 个股来看，今日早盘涨停数量为34家（不包括ST及未开板新股），封板率为72%，连板股数量为11家， 远大控股、亚太药业、新农股份3连板，海马汽车、通达股份、京泉华、华建集团、上实发展、四方股 份、三孚股份2连板。 板块上，存储芯片概念股再度走强，香农芯创触及20cm涨停创历史新高，云汉芯城、德明利、三孚股 份、睿能科技等涨停，开普云、佰维存储、江波龙等涨超10%。 据报道过去半年全球存储芯片价格持续上涨。CFM闪存市场发布2025年Q4存储市场展望报告。报告指 出，预计四季度，服务器eSSD涨幅将达到10%以上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: The 12 - contract is expected to be oscillating strongly [9] - Arbitrage: None [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of October, freight rates were slightly adjusted. Attention should be paid to whether the price increase notices for the second half of November will be launched [1] - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer. Focus on the actual cargo - booking prices in the second half of the month after the holiday. For the December contract, as it is far from delivery, trading focuses on the rhythm. The 2026 February contract may have a large expectation gap but is currently suppressed by the expectation of resumed voyages [5][6][7] - In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of October 12, 2025, 210 container ships have been delivered, with a total delivery capacity of 1.704 million TEU [8] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs I. Futures Prices - As of October 15, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index for the European route futures was 64,481.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 59,281.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2510, and EC2512 contracts were 1463.40, 1142.00, 1306.60, 1450.20, 1120.60, and 1708.60 respectively [7] II. Spot Prices - Online quotes from various shipping alliances show different price trends and price increase notices. For example, in the Gemini Cooperation, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased from week 43 to week 44. HPL also issued price increase notices. Many other alliances like MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance also have price adjustments and price increase notices [1][2] III. Container Ship Capacity Supply - The average weekly capacity from China to European base ports in the remaining three weeks of October was 276,100 TEU. The monthly average weekly capacity in November was 302,800 TEU, and in December was 287,700 TEU. There were 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November, and 7 TBNs in December [3] IV. Supply Chain - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce imposed sanctions on 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. Since HMM and Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. have the same top - level controlling party, whether HMM's operations will be affected is unknown [4] V. Demand and European Economy - No specific content about demand and European economy is provided in the text other than the general background information related to the shipping market, such as the actions of shipping companies to adjust supply to maintain freight rates for the next - year long - term agreement negotiations [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the performance and characteristics of the Ping An SSE Dividend Low Volatility Index A (020456), noting its recent gains and strong fund inflows, indicating investor confidence in low volatility strategies [1][2]. Performance Summary - As of October 15, 2025, the Ping An SSE Dividend Low Volatility Index A has achieved a maximum monthly return of 11.16% since its inception, with an average monthly return of 3.53% and a monthly profit probability of 55% [2]. - The index has outperformed its benchmark with an annualized excess return of 5.53% over the past six months, ranking in the top half of comparable funds [2]. - The maximum drawdown over the past year is 6.70%, which is lower than the benchmark's drawdown of 0.98%, indicating lower risk compared to peers [2]. Fund Inflows and Financing - The Ping An SSE Dividend Low Volatility Index has seen significant capital inflows, with a total of 252.92 billion yuan in net purchases over the last five trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [1]. - The financing balance for the index reached 999.65 billion yuan as of October 15, 2025, with a net financing purchase of 10.74 billion yuan over the past month [1]. Fund Characteristics - The fund has a management fee rate of 0.50% and a custody fee rate of 0.10%, totaling a fee rate of 0.60% [4]. - The fund closely tracks the SSE Dividend Low Volatility Index, which selects 50 securities based on liquidity, dividend payment history, and low volatility, aiming to minimize tracking error [4]. Top Holdings - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten holdings of the Ping An SSE Dividend Low Volatility Index A include COSCO Shipping Holdings, Chengdu Bank, and Industrial Bank, with the top ten stocks accounting for 17.41% of the total portfolio [4][6].

Core Insights - The construction of China's national comprehensive transportation network has achieved over 90% completion during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, enhancing connectivity across the country and supporting economic vitality [1][4]. Group 1: Infrastructure Development - The "big channels" strategy has accelerated the construction of key transportation corridors, connecting over 80% of county-level administrative regions and serving approximately 90% of the national economy and population [1]. - The national highway mainline covers 99% of cities with populations over 20,000, while high-speed rail accounts for over 70% of the world's total high-speed rail mileage [1]. - The national comprehensive transportation hub system is continuously improving, with key urban hubs reducing cargo transfer times to 1-2 times and achieving over 85% efficiency in multimodal transport [1]. Group 2: Economic Impact - Transportation is driving economic and social development, with an average of 180 million cross-regional trips, 160 million tons of goods transported, and 478 million express deliveries made daily [2]. - The western region's transportation gaps are being filled, while the overall efficiency of the northeastern transportation network is improving [2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The introduction of advanced technologies is evident with the launch of the CR450 train, the operation of the first domestically produced large cruise ship, and the regular commercial operation of the C919 large passenger aircraft [2]. - Innovations in autonomous driving, smart shipping, and intelligent logistics are flourishing [2]. Group 4: International Cooperation - China's transportation international cooperation is expanding, with significant projects like the construction of the Shanghai International Shipping Center and the operation of the China-Laos Railway [3]. Group 5: Achievements and Milestones - Six out of 17 major indicators in the transportation sector outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" have been completed ahead of schedule, with all remaining indicators expected to be met by the end of 2025 [4]. - Notable engineering feats include the completion of the Tianshan Victory Tunnel and the Guizhou Huajiang Gorge Bridge, which set records for height [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: Focus on Trump's new tariff threats and potential US government shutdown. There's a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting at the end of October, and a shutdown over 30 days could raise recession risks [6]. - Domestic: Enter the "15th Five - Year Plan" focus period and track incremental policies. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will discuss the plan, and the progress and effectiveness of a 500 - billion new policy - based financial tool are worth following [6]. - Asset Allocation: There's a risk of increased volatility in global major assets this week. Maintain a strategic allocation of precious metals like gold, be cautious about risk assets in the short - term, and hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds in the fourth - quarter mid - term [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro Highlights - Overseas Macro: Pay attention to Trump's new tariff threats and US government shutdown. There's a risk of conflict escalation before the APEC meeting, and a long - term shutdown may increase recession risks [6]. - Domestic Macro: Enter the "15th Five - Year Plan" focus period and track incremental policies. The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee will discuss the plan, and the progress of a 500 - billion new policy - based financial tool is worth following [6]. - Asset View: Global major assets may have increased volatility this week. Suggest maintaining a strategic allocation of precious metals, being cautious about risk assets in the short - term, and holding the view of equities > commodities > bonds in the fourth - quarter mid - term [6]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial - Stock Index Futures: Catalyzed by tech events, the growth style is active. May experience a volatile rise with the concern of overcrowded small - cap funds [7]. - Stock Index Options: Market turnover slightly declined. Expected to be volatile due to concerns about insufficient option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond market remains weak. Expected to be volatile with concerns about policy, fundamental repair, and tariff factors [7]. Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Driven by dovish expectations, prices are rising. Expected to rise with volatility, with attention on US fundamentals, Fed policy, and global equity market trends [7]. Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: The peak season in the third quarter has passed, and there's no upward drive. Expected to be volatile, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [7]. Black Building Materials - Steel: There's pressure on the fundamentals, and cost support is weakening. Expected to be volatile, focusing on special bond issuance, steel exports, and iron - water production [7]. - Iron Ore: Frequent macro disturbances have weakened market sentiment. Expected to be volatile, focusing on overseas mine production, domestic iron - water production, and policy [7]. - Coke: The fundamentals have little change, and the market is volatile. Expected to be volatile, focusing on steel production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking Coal: Most auctions showed price increases, and Mongolian coal customs clearance was briefly affected. Expected to be volatile, focusing on steel production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: Trade frictions have caused a short - term decline in copper prices. Expected to be volatile, with concerns about supply disruptions, domestic policies, and Fed policy [7]. - Aluminum: Pay attention to consumption changes, and aluminum prices are high and volatile. Expected to rise with volatility, with concerns about macro risks, supply disruptions, and demand [7]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under pressure. Expected to decline with volatility, focusing on OPEC+ policies and Middle - East geopolitics [9]. - LPG: Supply is excessive, and low valuations are hard to change. Expected to decline with volatility, focusing on cost factors [9]. - Methanol: Affected by olefins and high inventory, prices are falling. Expected to be volatile, focusing on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [9]. Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Expected to continue to be volatile, waiting for further information. Focus on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production - demand data [9]. - Protein Meal: The market remains in low - level volatility. Focus on Sino - US trade relations [9]. - Corn/Starch: Market sentiment is boosted by government - guided purchases, and the price rebounds. Expected to be volatile, focusing on demand, macro factors, and weather [9].

Core Viewpoint - The shipping sector experienced a significant rise, with companies like Haixia Co. and Haitong Development hitting the daily limit up, indicating strong market interest and potential investment opportunities in the sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The shipping sector showed volatility but ultimately moved higher, with Haixia Co. and Haitong Development both reaching their daily limit up [1] - Other companies such as Nanjing Port, Antong Holdings, Jinjiang Shipping, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation also saw gains, reflecting a broader positive trend in the shipping industry [1] Group 2: Regulatory Developments - The Ministry of Transport initiated an investigation on October 14 regarding the impact on the shipping and shipbuilding industries, as well as related supply chains, which may influence future market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Merchants Energy (中远海能) shares rose over 4%, currently trading at 9.71 HKD with a transaction volume of 112 million HKD, influenced by geopolitical developments and market forecasts [1] Company Summary - China Merchants Energy's operational performance in the first half of the year met expectations, with net profit exceeding forecasts primarily due to one-time gains [1] - Bank of America has raised its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, reflecting favorable conditions in the oil tanker market due to OPEC+ production increases and tightening US sanctions [1] - The bank maintains a "Buy" rating, indicating that the company is expected to be a major beneficiary of the recovery in the tanker market [1] Industry Summary - The Chinese Ministry of Transport announced a port service fee for US vessels in response to US port fees on Chinese ships, effective from October 14 [1] - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the shipping industry's effective capacity may experience temporary disruptions, adding upward pressure on freight rates, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) [1] - Huatai Securities noted strong demand in the crude oil tanker market in September, predicting that OPEC+ production increases will stimulate inventory replenishment and cross-regional arbitrage demand, with VLCC rates expected to strengthen in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Ocean Shipping Energy (01138) has seen a rise of over 4%, attributed to positive market sentiment following comments from U.S. President Trump regarding India's potential halt on Russian oil purchases, alongside favorable earnings forecasts from Bank of America and other analysts [1]. Group 1: Company Performance - China Ocean Shipping Energy's stock rose by 3.85% to HKD 9.71, with a trading volume of HKD 112 million [1]. - Bank of America noted that the company's operating performance in the first half of the year met expectations, with net profit exceeding forecasts due to one-time gains [1]. - The bank has raised its earnings forecasts for 2025 to 2027, reflecting favorable conditions in the oil tanker market due to OPEC+ production increases and tightening U.S. sanctions [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The Chinese Ministry of Transport announced a port service fee for U.S. vessels in response to U.S. port fees on Chinese ships, effective from October 14 [1]. - Goldman Sachs anticipates that the shipping industry may experience temporary disruptions in effective capacity, which could increase freight rates, particularly for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) [1]. - Huatai Securities reported strong demand in the crude oil tanker market in September, predicting that OPEC+ production increases will stimulate inventory replenishment and cross-regional arbitrage demand, leading to a potential rise in VLCC freight rates in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC is currently in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations, and fluctuates greatly under the influence of Middle - East geopolitics and Sino - US tariff policies [2]. - On Wednesday, the futures market fluctuated upward under the influence of geographical news, shipping company announcements, and capital position transfers. The YML released a week 44 quote of $1550 [2]. - The downstream is currently booking space for late October. The OA quotes around $1800, PA around $1500, and GEMINI around $1600, with an optimistically estimated average of $1640 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures). The week 43 OA had good cargo collection, while PA and GEMINI alliances had average cargo collection, with a possibility of further price drops (more offline) [2]. - The expected settlement price of the 10 - contract is between 1050 - 1100 points. With high shipping capacity in week 44, the expected price increases in the first half of November are likely to fall short. There are still multiple potential price - increase nodes in the future. Currently, the valuation of the 12 - contract is high, and going long has returned to a period driven by fundamentals. Geopolitics has a significant impact on the 2026 contracts [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Contract Information | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change (%) | Basis | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Yesterday's Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2510 | 1120.6 | - 1.37 | - 88.8 | 3412 | 11335 | - 1820 | | EC2512 | 1708.6 | 2.06 | - 676.8 | 42616 | 27023 | - 168 | | EC2602 | 1463.4 | - 0.07 | - 431.6 | 8209 | 9822 | 112 | | EC2604 | 1142.0 | - 0.70 | - 110.2 | 4498 | 13676 | 310 | | FC.2606 | 1306.6 | - 0.93 | - 274.8 | - | 1510 | 39 | [2] Month - to - Month Spread Information | Month Spread | Previous Day | Two Days Ago | Three Days Ago | Daily Change | Week - on - Week Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | EC2510 - 2512 | - 588.0 | - 537.9 | - 433.1 | - 50.1 | - 19.9 | | EC2512 - 2602 | 245.2 | 209.7 | 202.6 | 35.5 | - 36.8 | [2] Index Information | Index | Update Frequency | Announcement Date | Unit | Current Period | Previous Period | Two Periods Ago | Current Change | Previous Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | - | Weekly | 2025/10/13 | Points | 1031.80 | 1046.50 | 1120.49 | - 1.40% | - 6.60% | | SCFI (European Line) | Weekly | 2025/10/10 | US dollars/TEU | 1068 | 971 | 971 | 9.99% | 0.00% | | CCFI (European Line) | Weekly | 2025/10/10 | Points | 1287.15 | 1401.91 | 1401.91 | - 8.19% | 0.00% | | NCFI | Weekly | 2025/10/10 | Points | 698.67 | 627.21 | 614.14 | 11.39% | 2.13% | [2] Recent European Line Quotation Information - Week 40 - 41: The average quote was $1470 (equivalent to 1030 points on the futures) [3]. - Week 42: The online quote was $1800. Offline, OA quoted around $1800, PA around $1500, and GEMINI around $1600, with an optimistically estimated average of $1640 (equivalent to 1150 points on the futures) [3]. - November price increase announcements: MSK, CMA, OOCL announced price increases to around $2500, equivalent to around 1750 points on the futures. However, many shipping companies had average cargo collection in week 43, and shipping capacity was high in week 44 (330,000 TEU), making the expected price increases difficult to materialize [3][11]