钢材：缺乏持续驱动，重回区间运行 资料来源：iFinD，mysteel，中辉期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 期货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹01 | 3016 | 1 | 热卷01 | 3136 | 8 | | 螺纹05 | 3022 | 2 | 热卷05 | 3134 | 5 | | 螺纹10 | 3003 | ୧ | 热卷10 | 3136 | 13 | | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | 现货价格 | 最新 | 涨跌 | | 唐山普方坯 | 2900 | -20 | 张家港废钢 | 2100 | 0 | | 螺纹:唐山 | 3100 | -30 | 热卷:天津 | 3110 | 0 | | 螺纹:上海 | 3120 | -10 | 热卷:上海 | 3200 | O | | 螺纹:杭州 | 3160 | 1 0 | 热卷： 杭州 | 3210 | -20 | | 螺纹:广州 | 3160 | 0 | 热卷:广州 | 3180 | 0 | | 螺纹:成都 | 3160 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints can be extracted from the given content. Summaries by Categories Price - Multiple price trends of different grades of silicon iron (FeSi) in various regions from 2021 to 2025 are presented, including 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin, as well as 75%FeSi in Shaanxi [2]. - Price trends of silicon manganese, including CZCE silicon manganese主力合约收盘价, basis in different regions, and price differences between regions and grades, are shown from 2021 to 2025 [6]. - Export and import average prices of silicon iron from 2021 to 2025 are provided [2]. Supply - Production - related data of silicon iron, such as the monthly and weekly production of 136 Chinese silicon - iron enterprises, and the monthly capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 to 2025 are presented [4]. - Production data of silicon manganese, including weekly production in China, and the开工率 of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2021 to 2025 are shown [6]. - Production data of related products like national metal magnesium output and stainless - steel crude steel output in China from 2021 to 2025 are provided [4]. Demand - Demand - related data of silicon iron and silicon manganese, such as the monthly procurement volume and price of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand volume of silicon manganese in China (steel - union caliber) from 2021 to 2025 are presented [4][7]. - Forecasted and statistical data of China's crude - steel output from 2021 to 2025 are provided [4][7]. Inventory - Inventory data of silicon iron, including the weekly inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, and warehouse receipt - related data from 2021 to 2025 are presented [5]. - Inventory data of silicon manganese, including the daily warehouse - receipt quantity, effective forecast, and total inventory, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 to 2025 are shown [7]. Cost and Profit - Cost - related data of silicon iron, such as electricity prices in different regions and production costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 to 2025 are presented [5]. - Profit - related data of silicon iron, including spot and futures profits in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and export profits from 2021 to 2025 are shown [5]. - Cost - and profit - related data of silicon manganese, including raw - material prices, production profits in different regions, and futures - related profits from 2021 to 2025 are presented [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoint - No clear core viewpoint presented in the given reports 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: The latest prices of 72 silicon iron in different regions are as follows: 5130 in Ningxia, 5150 in Inner Mongolia and Qinghai, and 5100 in Shaanxi. The latest prices of 75 silicon iron are 5600 in Shaanxi. The prices of silicon iron in different regions and contracts show different daily and weekly changes [1][3]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The latest prices of 6517 silicon manganese in different regions are: 5550 in Inner Mongolia, 5510 in Ningxia, 5500 in Guangxi, 5450 in Guizhou and Yunnan. The prices also have different daily and weekly changes [1]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity - share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are provided, along with the procurement price and quantity of 6517 silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group on a monthly basis [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data involve the estimated monthly production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export quantity of silicon iron in China from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand - related data include the estimated demand for silicon manganese in China (Steel Union's caliber) and the export quantity of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China for silicon iron from 2021 - 2025 are shown, including weekly inventory in different regions (Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi), daily CZCE silicon iron warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions (East China, South China, North China) [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The inventory - related data include daily CZCE silicon manganese warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, warehouse receipts + effective inventory, and the average available days of inventory in China, as well as the weekly inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - profit data involve the electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of semi - coke small materials in Shaanxi, the production cost and profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data of silicon manganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North China, South China) from 2021 - 2025 are provided, along with the profit of Guangxi silicon manganese converted to the main contract and the profit of Ningxia silicon manganese converted to the disk [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall black market, it is recommended to adopt a bearish mindset and try shorting on rebounds due to weak macro and fundamental drivers, cautious market sentiment, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [9] - Iron ore is expected to run strongly in the short term as it has strong demand resilience. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 710 - 740 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE08 contract price is expected to be in the range of 93 - 97 US dollars/ton [10] - Coking coal and coke may continue the oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short term as recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply - surplus pressure to some extent [11] - Ferroalloys are expected to run weakly in a narrow range. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight and its supply - demand pattern is slightly better [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various varieties in the black industry chain showed different changes from June 20 to June 27, 2025. For example, the closing price of the rebar RB2510 futures contract rose by 0.10% to 2995 yuan/ton, and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.32% to 3080 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Overall Black Market**: The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased slightly, while the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is recommended to be bearish [9] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in a seasonal increase, but the demand is strong with high daily iron - water production. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply pressure, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [11] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese is loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight. Overall, it is expected to run weakly in a narrow range [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 217.84 tons, the apparent demand was 219.91 tons, the total inventory was 549.00 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.07 tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing also showed different changes [14][21][33] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 327.24 tons, the apparent demand was 326.25 tons, the total inventory was 341.16 tons, and the inventory increased by 0.99 tons. The basis in Shanghai also changed [26][30][40] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory in 45 ports increased by 36.07 tons to 13930.23 tons last week. The inventory and consumption of 247 steel mills' imported ore, as well as the global shipping volume, also had corresponding changes [42][53][70] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The total inventory of coke decreased by 12.02 tons to 940.89 tons last week, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased by 39.64 tons to 2570.76 tons. The profitability, production capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of independent coking enterprises also changed [109][116][122] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The spot prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased slightly last week. The production, demand, inventory, and import volume of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon also had different changes [141][145][158]

光期研究 见微知著 2025 年下半年铁合金策略报告 2025 年 0 6 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：终端需求偏弱，合金价格反弹承压 p 2 锰硅：关注未来锰矿发运情况 总 结 供应：低利润甚至负利润下锰硅周产量仍在逐渐增加，后续仍有一定增量预期。依据钢联数据，目前北方大区锰硅生产即期利润约- 170元/吨，南方大区锰硅生产即期利润约-500元/吨，在如此幅度亏损下，锰硅产量当周值连续六周环比回升，且还有新增产能投放，随着 后续南方地区丰水期复产意愿增加，生产亏损环比收窄情况下，未来锰硅产量仍有增量预期。 需求：终端需求偏弱影响持续，钢厂锰硅储备意愿不强。吨钢消耗锰硅数量较多螺纹产量创下近年来同期新低，样本钢厂锰硅需求量 当周值同样如此，6月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数环比略有回升，但仍处于近年来同期较低水平，终端需求不足，下游备货意愿不强。 库存：样本企业库存逐渐累积，仓单加有效预报数量同比下降，仍有9万余张。自2月底开始，锰硅样本企业库存便开始逐渐回升，截 止6月末，约22.18万吨，同比增加14.8 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article suggests that the steel market in the second half of the year will be influenced by multiple factors, with prices expected to initially decline before rising [1] - Domestic demand for steel is heavily reliant on policy support, with a projected decline in demand for construction steel, although urban renewal may offset some of the decrease [1] - Infrastructure steel demand may improve on a month-on-month basis, but lacks significant growth potential [1] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector is showing weakness in certain areas, requiring support from "two new" policies [1] - Direct exports are expected to remain high, but are unlikely to drive steel prices significantly [1] - Supply-side production is anticipated to fluctuate slightly, with ongoing reductions in crude steel production causing disruptions [1] Group 3 - Iron ore supply pressure is easing, with a projected increase of approximately 13.7 million tons in global iron ore shipments by 2025, while annual foreign ore arrivals are expected to decrease by 15 to 20 million tons year-on-year [1] - Under optimistic assumptions, average molten iron production is expected to be 2.39 million tons per day in Q3, decreasing to 2.28 million tons per day in Q4 [1] - Under pessimistic assumptions, crude steel production may be reduced by 10 to 20 million tons in Q4, leading to significant inventory pressure [1] Group 4 - Recommendations suggest seizing rebound opportunities in undervalued areas while paying attention to the downward pressure from crude steel reduction policies [1] - Risk factors include potential negative impacts from tariffs on exports and strict enforcement of crude steel reduction policies [1] - The demand outlook for coke is not optimistic, with no significant downward expectations for molten iron in the short term, but long-term demand for finished products remains under pressure [1] Group 5 - Coking coal mines are still profitable, but supply pressures persist, with short-term demand for molten iron supported by basic needs [1] - High levels of imports are stable, but price pressures exist, necessitating attention to coal mine safety regulations [1] - The cost of silicon manganese continues to exert pressure, with production control becoming increasingly difficult [1] Group 6 - The difficulty of destocking silicon iron is increasing, with challenges in inventory digestion as steel production declines [1] - The destocking process may accelerate during the peak season, with potential for valuation recovery, although the extent of rebound is limited [1] - Attention is required on production control measures from manufacturers [1]

2 硅铁&锰硅产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黑色金属 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021184 金园园 （联系人）从业资格号：F03134630 日期： 2025年6月29日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 硅铁&锰硅观点：板块价格提振，矿端助推成本重心上移 | 基本面 | 条 | 硅 | 硅 | 铁 | 锰 | 目 | 当期值 | 当期值 | 比 | 同 | 比 | 比 | 同 | 比 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 环 | 环 | 周产量（周） ...

Report Information - Report Title: Ferroalloy Semi - annual Report - Report Date: June 27, 2025 - Report Institution: Galaxy Futures Core Viewpoint - The cost is loose, which drags down the ferroalloy market, and the alloy continues to bottom out [2] Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Situation Price and Spread - The report presents the trends of ferroalloy main contracts, including silicon iron and silicon manganese main contracts, and their price ranges from 4500 to 8000 yuan/ton [7][8] - It shows the spot market prices of 72% FeSi silicon iron in different regions such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi, with prices ranging from 4500 - 7000 yuan/ton [9][10] - The disk main contract sf - sm spread is also presented, with a range from - 2000 to 3000 yuan/ton [14] Market Demand - related Indicators - Real estate new construction area remains sluggish, and land transaction area is also monitored [25][26] - Local government special bond issuance progress is fast this year, but the proportion invested in infrastructure is too low [31][36] - Industrial enterprise profits lead manufacturing investment, and manufacturing investment is relatively synchronized with exports [33] - Steel direct exports remain at a high level, and indirect exports also show resilience. The indirect steel consumption of some commodities from January - April 2025 compared with 2024 shows different growth rates, with the total indirect steel consumption increasing by 9.03% [35][40] Production and Inventory - The production enterprise start - up rates of silicon iron and silicon manganese are presented, with the silicon iron start - up rate ranging from 20 - 80% and the silicon manganese start - up rate ranging from 10 - 70% [45][51] - The inventories of alloy plants (silicon iron and silicon manganese), the average available days of steel mill inventories (silicon iron and silicon manganese), and the warehouse receipt situations (silicon iron and silicon manganese) are also shown [49][53][54] Cost - related Factors - The growth rates and proportions of different energy - structure power generation are presented, including hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, solar power, and thermal power [61][66] - Electricity prices in different regions such as Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, and Shaanxi are shown, ranging from 0.35 - 0.6 yuan/degree [63] - The prices of chemical coke in Yinchuan, lanthanum small materials in various places, global manganese ore shipments, manganese ore prices in Tianjin Port, and national manganese ore inventories are also included [68][70][74] - The production costs and profits of silicon iron and silicon manganese in different regions are presented [76][79] 2. Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - No specific future outlook and strategy recommendation content is presented in the provided text

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint No clear core viewpoint presented in the given content, which mainly consists of price, supply, demand, inventory, and cost - profit data of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - For ferrosilicon on June 27, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 natural block was 5130 yuan, with a daily change of 30 yuan and a weekly change of 30 yuan; the export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020 US dollars, with no daily change and a weekly decrease of 35 US dollars [2]. - For silicomanganese on June 27, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 at the production area was 5520 yuan, with a daily change of 20 yuan and a weekly change of 40 yuan [2]. Supply - The production data of 136 ferrosilicon enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly production, weekly production, and capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia [4]. - The production data of silicomanganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, such as weekly production and enterprise start - up rate [6]. Demand - Ferrosilicon demand - related data include export prices at Tianjin Port, export quantity in China, and procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group from 2021 - 2025 [4]. - Silicomanganese demand - related data involve the estimated demand in China and export quantity from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon inventory data include the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China, inventory in Ningxia, and warehouse receipt data from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - Silicomanganese inventory data cover warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 [7]. Cost Profit - Ferrosilicon cost - profit data include electricity prices in different regions, Lanthanum carbon prices, production costs in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and corresponding profits from 2021 - 2025 [5]. - Silicomanganese cost - profit data involve the profits in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions from 2021 - 2025 [7].

Core Insights - The iron alloy industry has made significant progress in eliminating backward production capacity since 2021, but lacks key measures for substantial carbon reduction [1] - Carbon pricing mechanisms, including carbon taxes and carbon trading, are essential for controlling carbon emissions, with each having distinct advantages and limitations [2][3] Carbon Pricing Mechanisms - Carbon taxes provide stable revenue expectations for companies, promoting low-carbon technology innovation, but may not effectively control total carbon emissions [2][3] - Carbon trading offers a superior total control mechanism, with predetermined emission limits that prevent significant breaches even during economic booms [3] - The EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) is the largest carbon trading market globally, demonstrating effective emission control alongside economic growth [3] Industry Challenges and Responses - The iron alloy industry faces high energy consumption pressures, with significant electricity usage per ton of products like silicon iron and manganese silicon [7] - The Chinese government has set ambitious energy efficiency targets for the iron alloy industry, requiring a substantial proportion of production to meet benchmark levels by 2025 [7] - The establishment of a green product certification standard is crucial for guiding the industry's transition to low-carbon development [7][8] Green Product Certification - The newly released green product certification standard for iron alloys focuses on the entire product lifecycle, addressing energy consumption, resource utilization, and carbon emissions [8] - If the entire industry achieves certification, it is estimated that energy consumption per product could decrease by approximately 15%, saving around 25 billion kWh annually [9] Futures Market Initiatives - The "Green Assistance" pilot project aims to leverage futures tools to support the green transition of iron alloy production, providing financial incentives for certified green product producers [10][12] - The integration of green certification with futures trading is expected to enhance market competitiveness and promote a virtuous cycle of green transformation [12][13] Pathways for Industry Transformation - The iron alloy industry must enhance low-carbon technology research and data monitoring capabilities to address existing shortcomings [14] - A composite mechanism combining carbon taxes and carbon trading could better meet the industry's complex needs, alongside coordinated green finance policies [15] - Industry leaders should take on a proactive role in driving green development, with associations refining standards and fostering a supportive ecosystem [16][17] Conclusion - The iron alloy industry is undergoing a fundamental shift towards green and low-carbon practices, supported by new certification standards and innovative financial tools [18] - Continued collaboration among government, market, and enterprises is essential for achieving energy savings and industrial upgrades, positioning the industry favorably in the global low-carbon competition [18]