Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot Roll: ★★☆, suggesting a clear long trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Iron Ore: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★☆, indicating a clear long trend and the market is fermenting [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicon Iron: ★★★, representing a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core Views - The steel market is in a state of repeated tug - of - war between weak demand and anti - involution, with the short - term operation rhythm of the futures price switching quickly and mainly oscillating within a range. The overall wind direction change of the commodity market should be noted [2] - The iron ore futures price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with limited fundamental contradictions currently [3] - The coke futures price has a high short - term volatility, with the price being greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4] - The coking coal futures price has a large short - term volatility, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [6] - The silicon manganese price bottom is gradually rising, and the price is greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations, mainly following the coking coal trend [7] - The silicon iron price is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the silicon manganese trend [8] Summary by Industry Steel - This week, the apparent demand for thread decreased significantly, production declined slightly, and inventory accumulation accelerated. The apparent demand for hot roll improved, production increased slightly, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down [2] - The molten iron production declined moderately but remained at a high level. With low inventory, the market negative feedback pressure is not large. As the parade approaches, attention should be paid to the production restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places [2] - From the downstream industries, real estate investment continued to decline significantly, infrastructure growth slowed down, the manufacturing prosperity degree slowed down, and the overall domestic demand was still weak, while steel exports remained at a relatively high level [2] Iron Ore - On the supply side, the global iron ore shipment is stronger year - on - year, and there is an expectation of seasonal recovery in the future. The domestic port inventory has stabilized and rebounded, and there is no obvious inventory accumulation pressure even under high port clearance [3] - On the demand side, this week's steel apparent demand declined, but the proportion of profitable steel mills is at a high level, and currently there is insufficient motivation for active production reduction. Iron ore demand is still supported by high molten iron. Future attention should be paid to the progress of policy - based production restrictions [3] - At the macro level, the Sino - US tariff extension, domestic demand still needs policy support, and the market sentiment has cooled down due to the coking coal position limit [3] Coke - The coking plants in East China have expectations of production restrictions again as a major event approaches. The sixth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, profits have improved, and daily coke production has increased slightly [4] - The overall coke inventory is in a downward trend, and the purchasing willingness of traders is good. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level in the off - season. The market sentiment has been boosted by coal over - production inspection [4] Coking Coal - The new version of the "Coal Mine Safety Regulations" mainly pushes up the cost per ton of coal. The production of coking coal mines has decreased, the spot auction market has improved, the transaction price has mainly increased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat [6] - The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the production - end inventory has continued to decline significantly. It is likely to continue de - stocking in the short term. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level in the off - season. The market sentiment has been boosted by coal over - production inspection [6] Silicon Manganese - The demand side has a molten iron production of over 240, still maintaining a high level. The weekly silicon manganese production has continued to increase, but the production increase rate is lower than expected, providing some support for the price [7] - The manganese ore price has increased slightly this week. It is judged that the manganese ore will mainly accumulate inventory in the second half of the year. In July, supply exceeded demand, and the on - balance - sheet inventory continued to be depleted. Attention should be paid to when the on - balance - sheet silicon manganese inventory starts to increase [7] Silicon Iron - The molten iron production has decreased slightly but remained above 240. A large northern steel mill's tender price increased by 430 compared with the previous round, with a tender price of 6030 yuan/ton and an inquiry price of 5700 yuan/ton [8] - The export demand remains at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact being small. The metal magnesium production has decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand has declined marginally. The overall demand is acceptable [8] - The silicon iron supply has increased significantly, the market transaction level is average, and the on - balance - sheet inventory has increased slightly [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The steel production and sales are weakening, and the price is oscillating and correcting. The market sentiment of glass and soda ash is declining, and they are oscillating. The consumption of steel is weakening, and the alloy prices are continuously dropping [1][3] - Glass prices are expected to be oscillating weakly, and soda ash prices are also expected to be oscillating weakly. Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are expected to maintain an oscillating trend [2][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Market Analysis - Glass: The glass futures market was oscillating weakly. The spot market was mainly for刚需 purchases, and the speculative sentiment weakened. The weekly开工 rate of float glass enterprises was 75.34%, unchanged from the previous week, and the manufacturer inventory was 6.3426 billion heavy boxes, a 2.55% increase from the previous week [1] - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures market was oscillating strongly. The downstream demand was continuously weak, mainly for刚需 restocking. The weekly产能 utilization rate was 87.32%, a 1.91% increase from the previous week; the output was 761,300 tons, a 2.24% increase from the previous week; and the inventory was 1.8938 million tons, a 1.54% increase from the previous week [1] Supply - Demand and Logic - Glass: With the decline of market sentiment, glass returns to its fundamental pricing logic. The supply has not been effectively cleared, the speculative demand has weakened, the supply - demand is still loose, and the spot price has dropped. The increase in registered warehouse receipts has suppressed the price of the 09 contract [1] - Soda Ash: Currently, the soda ash output is continuously increasing with an expected further increase. The consumption may further weaken, and the inventory growth pressure is large. In the short - term, it is easily affected by news, while in the long - term, the supply - demand contradiction will suppress the price [1] Strategy - Glass: Oscillating weakly [2] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [2] Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron Market Analysis - Silicon Manganese: The steel data showed that steel inventory was continuously increasing and consumption was significantly declining. The silicon manganese futures market was oscillating downward. The spot market was in a wait - and - see state. The 6517 grade in the northern market was priced at 5,800 - 5,870 yuan/ton, and in the southern market at 5,850 - 5,920 yuan/ton [3] - Silicon Iron: Affected by the decline in steel prices, the silicon iron futures market tumbled at the end of the session. The silicon iron manufacturers' supplies were tight, and the spot market price was stable. The 72 - grade silicon iron natural block in the main production area was 5,450 - 5,600 yuan/ton, and the 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,900 yuan/ton [3] Supply - Demand and Logic - Silicon Manganese: The output and demand of silicon manganese have slightly increased, the manufacturer inventory has decreased month - on - month and is at a medium level in the same period. The manganese ore quotation to China has slightly increased, and the cost has slightly moved up, supporting the spot price. However, considering the continuous increase in manganese ore port inventory, the cost support is weak, and the industry has obvious over - supply [3] - Silicon Iron: Currently, the silicon iron output is rapidly increasing, the demand has slightly increased, and the manufacturer inventory has increased month - on - month and is at a relatively high level in the same period. The increase in chemical coke price has driven up the cost, supporting the spot price. The industry has obvious over - supply [4] Strategy - Silicon Manganese: Oscillating [5] - Silicon Iron: Oscillating [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the weekly data of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron alloys in China from August 8th to August 15th, 2025, including daily average production, weekly operating rate, weekly apparent demand, and sample enterprise inventory [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Silicon - Manganese - **Daily Average Production**: The daily average production increased from 27,975 tons/day on August 8th to 29,580 tons/day on August 15th, with a week - on - week increase of 1,605 tons [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate rose from 43.43% to 45.75%, a week - on - week increase of 2.32 percentage points [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand increased from 125,200 tons to 125,382 tons, a week - on - week increase of 182 tons [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory decreased from 161,500 tons to 158,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,700 tons [2]. Silicon - Iron - **Daily Average Production**: The daily average production increased from 15,590 tons/day on August 8th to 16,125 tons/day on August 15th, with a week - on - week increase of 235 tons [2]. - **Weekly Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate rose from 34.32% to 36.18%, a week - on - week increase of 1.86 percentage points [2]. - **Weekly Apparent Demand**: The weekly apparent demand increased from 20,266.3 tons to 20,313.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 47.6 tons [2]. - **Sample Enterprise Inventory**: The sample enterprise inventory decreased from 71,770 tons to 65,180 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,590 tons [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The manganese - silicon sector has a weak sentiment and is expected to fluctuate weakly [1] Core View - The report provides the latest data on silicon - iron and manganese - silicon fundamentals, including futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, spot prices, and price differences. It also presents relevant macro and industry news [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For silicon - iron, the 2509 contract closed at 5744 yuan, down 50 yuan from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 92,937 and an open interest of 72,388; the 2510 contract closed at 5724 yuan, down 54 yuan, with a trading volume of 73,995 and an open interest of 58,183. For manganese - silicon, the 2509 contract closed at 6050 yuan, down 24 yuan, with a trading volume of 177,497 and an open interest of 172,038; the 2510 contract closed at 6054 yuan, down 32 yuan, with a trading volume of 45,940 and an open interest of 48,032 [1] - **Spot Data**: The spot price of silicon - iron (FeSi75 - B) in Inner Mongolia is 5450 yuan/ton; the spot price of silicon - manganese (FeMn65Si17) in Inner Mongolia is 5800 yuan/ton; the price of manganese ore (Mn44 block) is 40.3 yuan/ton - degree; the price of semi - coke (small material) in Shenmu is 620 yuan/ton [1] - **Price Difference Data**: The spot - 09 futures price difference of silicon - iron is - 294 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot - 09 futures price difference of manganese - silicon is - 250 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan [1] Macro and Industry News - On August 14, the price range of 72 silicon - iron in different regions: 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in Shaanxi, 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5500 - 5600 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The price range of 75 silicon - iron: 5850 - 5900 yuan/ton in Shaanxi (+50), 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Ningxia, 5750 - 5800 yuan/ton in Qinghai, 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Gansu, and 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia. The FOB price of 72 silicon - iron is 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (+10), and that of 75 is 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton (+10). The northern quotation of 6517 silicon - manganese is 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation is 5900 - 6000 yuan/ton [2] - Hegang has finalized the purchase price of 75B silicon - iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton from July, with a quantity of 2835 tons, an increase of 135 tons from July. A steel mill in Zhejiang set the price of silicon - manganese at 6122 yuan/ton (acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory, based on the standard), with a purchase volume of 1000 tons. A steel mill in Jiangxi set the price of 6517 silicon - manganese at 6180 yuan/ton (based on the standard, acceptance, tax - included, delivered to the factory), up 80 yuan/ton from the beginning - of - month price [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of silicon - iron is 0, and that of manganese - silicon is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3]

Group 1: Report Overall Information - The report is the Black Building Materials Daily on August 15, 2025, covering various black building materials such as steel, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, industrial silicon, polysilicon, glass, and soda ash [1] Group 2: Steel Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3189 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 109,055 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2382 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.636544 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 16,049 lots [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3432 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.55%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 78,386 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.291831 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 62,005 lots [2] Spot Market - The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3320 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 40 yuan/ton [2] - The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3450 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 20 yuan/ton [2] Market Analysis - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished products showed a weak and volatile trend. This week, the export volume declined slightly, and the overall export remained weak [3] - In terms of fundamentals, the demand for rebar decreased significantly this week, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. For hot - rolled coils, demand rebounded significantly, production was basically the same as last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, the inventories of both rebar and hot - rolled coils are on the rise marginally, steel mills' profit levels are good, and production remains high, but the demand side's ability to absorb is obviously insufficient [3] - With the Politburo meeting concluded and the "anti - involution" sentiment gradually cooling down, market sentiment has become more rational, and the futures price trend has started to weaken. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may not be able to maintain the current level, and the futures price may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3] Group 3: Iron Ore Futures Market - Yesterday, the main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 2.52% (-20.00), and the position changed by - 462 lots to 452,000 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 907,500 lots [5] Spot Market - The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 771 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.12 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.39% [5] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both decreased. On the shipment side, shipments from Australia continued to decline month - on - month due to mine maintenance, shipments from Brazil increased month - on - month, and shipments from non - mainstream countries decreased slightly month - on - month [6] - In terms of demand, the latest daily average pig iron output according to Steel Union data was 2.4066 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.34 million tons, mainly due to the increase in the utilization rate of the production capacity of previously restarted blast furnaces [6] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mills' imported ore inventories increased significantly. Terminal data showed that the apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken this week, and the decline in rebar consumption data was obvious [6] - From a fundamental perspective, the current supply side is in the traditional shipment off - season for overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability rate of steel mills has started to decline after raw material prices reached a relatively high level. Due to the slight weakening of terminal demand, the short - term upward increase in pig iron may be limited [6] Group 4: Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Futures Market - On August 14, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) fluctuated weakly, closing down 0.40% at 6050 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 90 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) continued to weaken, closing down 0.86% at 5744 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a basis of 156 yuan/ton [8] Market Analysis - From a daily - line perspective, the futures price of manganese silicon is still above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can still participate at the right time [9] - For ferrosilicon, the futures price is also above the short - term rebound trend line since early June. Similar to manganese silicon, investment positions are advised to wait and see, and hedging positions can participate as appropriate [9] - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1, the "anti - involution" trading has affected the market. As the sentiment of Supply - side 2.0 cools down, the market is squeezing out the over - valued part, driving prices down. Currently, sentiment still has a significant impact on the futures price [10] - In the short - term, it is not recommended that speculative funds participate excessively, and it is better to wait and see. However, hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations [10] - Fundamentally, the over - supplied industrial pattern of manganese silicon has not changed due to "anti - involution." For ferrosilicon, there has been no obvious change, and it is expected that in the future, there will be a marginal weakening of demand for manganese silicon, ferrosilicon, or the entire black sector [11] Group 5: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Yesterday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8675 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.87% (+75). The weighted contract position changed by - 14,051 lots to 535,123 lots [13] - In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 525 yuan/ton; the price of 421 was 9750 yuan/ton, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was 275 yuan/ton [13] - The futures price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term. The problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient effective demand have not fundamentally changed. In August, the operating rate of industrial silicon is expected to increase, and downstream demand can provide some support, but new inventory pressure may occur [14] Polysilicon - Yesterday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 50,430 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.68% (-860). The weighted contract position changed by - 4414 lots to 310,109 lots [15] - In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to SMM was 44.5 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type dense material was 46 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 47 yuan/kg, with no month - on - month change, and the basis of the main contract was - 3430 yuan/ton [15] - In July, "anti - involution" and the expectation of a polysilicon industry capacity integration plan drove prices up rapidly. In August, polysilicon is expected to increase production, and downstream silicon wafer production has increased to some extent, but silicon materials are likely to accumulate inventory. The price of downstream distributed components has increased and then回调, and whether the price increase chain in the industry can be smoothly transmitted to the end - user remains to be seen [16] Group 6: Glass and Soda Ash Glass - On Thursday, the spot price in Shahe was 1164 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price in Central China was 1120 yuan, also unchanged from the previous day. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 1.579 million weight boxes (+2.55%), and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [18] - After the Politburo meeting, market sentiment cooled down, and glass prices回调 significantly. Currently, the market sentiment has basically been digested. Glass production continues to increase, inventory pressure has increased, and downstream real - estate demand data has not improved significantly [18] - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, glass prices will fluctuate with macro sentiment. If there are substantial policies in the real - estate sector, futures prices may continue to rise; otherwise, supply - side contraction is needed for significant price increases [18] Soda Ash - The spot price was 1280 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons (0.94%) from Monday. Among them, the inventory of light soda ash was 760,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18,700 tons, and the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.1338 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1100 tons [19] - The downstream float glass operating rate increased slightly, and the photovoltaic glass operating rate decreased and then stabilized. Downstream buyers are waiting and seeing, and procurement enthusiasm has slowed down. Soda ash production facilities are operating stably, and inventory pressure has increased, but heavy - soda ash inventory has decreased slightly [19] - In the short term, soda ash prices are expected to fluctuate. In the long term, under the "anti - involution" logic, supply - side and market sentiment will have a greater impact on prices, and the price center is expected to gradually rise, but the room for price increases will be limited due to the slow improvement of downstream demand [19]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore: The actual demand for steel has limited improvement, and the price has corrected from its high level [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Demand falls short of expectations, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The sentiment in the sector is weak, and the prices are in a weak and volatile state [2][15]. - Coke and coking coal: The sentiment has declined, and the prices are correcting from their high levels [2][18][19]. - Logs: The price fluctuates repeatedly [2][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price closed at 775.0 yuan/ton, down 20.0 yuan/ton (-2.52%). The import and some domestic ore prices also decreased. The basis and some spreads changed [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0 [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,189 yuan/ton, down 59 yuan/ton (-1.82%); for hot - rolled coil HC2510, it was 3,432 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.18%). Inventory and production data also changed [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data changed. In July, financial statistics showed changes in M2, M1, etc. In late July, steel inventory and production data of key enterprises changed, and automobile production and sales data were released [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is - 1 [14]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices and various spreads also changed [15][16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 14, prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions were reported. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities changed [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal JM2601 and coke J2601 decreased. Spot prices and various spreads changed [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 12, 2025, South Korea plans to impose a five - year anti - dumping duty on Chinese - originated hot - rolled stainless steel plates [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0 [21]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of different types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July, financial statistics showed that M2 and M1 had year - on - year growth [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [25].

铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/8/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5500 | 0 | 0 | 5800 | 主力合约 | 5744 | -50 | -90 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5450 | 0 | -50 | 5800 | 01合约 | 5904 | -60 | -108 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5500 | 0 | 0 | 5830 | 05合约 | 6038 | -64 | -52 | | | 陕西#72 | 5450 | 0 | 0 | 5750 | 09合约 | 5744 | -50 | -90 | | | 陕西#75 | 5800 | 0 | -50 | | 主力月基差 | 56 | 50 | 90 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 ...

2025年08月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 14 日 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 795. 0 | -6. 0 | -0.75% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 452. 419 | 8, 620 | ...

铁合金早报 仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5500 0 0 5800 主力合约 5794 -26 -114 内蒙#72 5450 0 -50 5800 01合约 5964 -48 -104 青海#72 5500 0 50 5830 05合约 6102 -34 -32 陕西#72 5450 0 0 5750 09合约 5794 -26 -114 陕西#75 5800 0 -50 主力月基差 6 26 114 江苏#72 5550 -50 -50 1-5月差 -138 -14 -72 天津#72 5900 50 -150 5-9月差 308 -8 82 天津#72 1025 0 0 9-1月差 -170 22 -10 天津#75 1075 0 0 双硅主力价差 -280 10 -92 内蒙#6517 5800 0 -50 6100 主力合约 6074 -36 -22 宁夏#6517 5900 50 100 6300 01合约 6162 -44 -32 广西#6517 5900 30 0 6390 05合约 6214 -42 -14 贵州#6517 5870 20 20 64 ...

Group 1: Market Information - SF main contract closed at 5970, up 150 daily and 62 weekly, with trading volume of 223,621 (up 25,074) and open interest of 108,388 (up 86,379) [4] - SM main contract closed at 6074, down 36 daily and 22 weekly, with trading volume of 258,168 (down 849) and open interest of 187,130 (down 16,808) [4] - Spot prices of 72%FeSi in Inner Mongolia were 5550, unchanged daily and down 50 weekly [4] - Spot prices of 6517 silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia were 5800, unchanged daily and down 50 weekly [4] - Manganese ore (Tianjin) prices: Australian lump was 41, unchanged daily and up 0.5 weekly; South African semi - carbonate was 35.2, unchanged daily and up 0.2 weekly; Gabon lump was 40.3, down 0.2 daily and up 0.3 weekly [4] Group 2: Market Analysis and Trading Strategies - On August 13, ferroalloy futures prices declined. SF main contract closed at 5794, down 0.45%, with open interest decreasing by 19,568; SM main contract closed at 6074, down 0.59%, with open interest decreasing by 10,874 [6] - For silicon - iron, spot prices were stable on the 13th. Supply increased steadily. Demand remained supported by good steel profits and high steel output. The 09 contract is approaching delivery, and it is expected to fluctuate around the warehouse - receipt cost [6] - For silicon - manganese, manganese ore spot prices were slightly weak, while silicon - manganese spot prices were slightly strong. Supply increased slightly with price hikes. Demand was supported by good steel profits. Cost was also supported by overseas mines' slightly higher September quotes. It is expected to fluctuate widely around the warehouse - receipt cost [6] - Trading strategies: Trade around the warehouse - receipt cost; conduct cash - and - carry arbitrage when the basis is low; sell straddle option combinations at high prices [7] Group 3: Important Information - A large steel mill in Hebei set the purchase price of 75B silicon - iron in August at 6030 yuan/ton, up 430 yuan/ton from July, with the quantity of 2835 tons, up 135 tons from July [8] - On the 13th, Tianjin Port's semi - carbonate Mn36.5% was quoted at 35.5 yuan/ton degree, Australian lump Mn46% at 43 yuan/ton degree, and South African medium - iron lump Mn42%Fe12% at 37 yuan/ton degree [8] Group 4: Cost and Profit - Silicon - iron production costs and profits: Inner Mongolia had a production cost of 5499 yuan/ton and a profit of 1 yuan/ton; Ningxia had a cost of 5352 yuan/ton and a profit of 148 yuan/ton; Shaanxi had a cost of 5564 yuan/ton and a loss of 114 yuan/ton; Qinghai had a cost of 5421 yuan/ton and a profit of 79 yuan/ton; Gansu had a cost of 5573 yuan/ton and a loss of 73 yuan/ton [21] - Silicon - manganese production costs and profits: Inner Mongolia had a production cost of 5842 yuan/ton and a profit of 8 yuan/ton; Ningxia had a cost of 5903 yuan/ton and a loss of 103 yuan/ton; Guangxi had a cost of 6421 yuan/ton and a loss of 521 yuan/ton; Guizhou had a cost of 6169 yuan/ton and a loss of 319 yuan/ton [24]