上周受渤化等装置提负影响，PVC产能利用率环比+0.70%至79.33%。上周管材开工率环比+1.05%至 48.34%，型材开工率环比-6.5%至34.15%。 截至5月8日，PVC社会库存新（41家）样本统计环比减少0.41%至65.10万吨，对外出口集中交付依旧带 动市场库存去化。 5月8日PVC常州市场价4660元/吨（-40），主力基差-179元/吨(+3），广州市场价4790元/吨（0），杭州 市场价4730元/吨（-40）。 机构观点汇总： 截至2025年5月9日当周，PVC期货主力合约收于4805元/吨，周K线收阴，持仓量环比上周增持182689 手。 本周（5月6日-5月9日）市场上看，PVC期货周内开盘报4930元/吨，最高触及4960元/吨，最低下探至 4800元/吨，周度涨跌幅达-2.54%。 消息面回顾： 中辉期货：供给端，1月新增新浦化学50万吨装置投产。供给端高位承压，产能利用率为79%。需求 端，房地产竣工面积降幅收窄，下游开工率季节性下降。出口方面，2025年1-3月PVC累计出口98万 吨，累计同比+56%，5月台塑报价环比持平。综上，开工继续上行，上游累库，仓单持续注册， ...

4月以来，聚氯乙烯(PVC)市场在供需弱平衡状态下一路震荡下行。据隆众资讯数据，截至5月8日，华 东地区电石法五型PVC现汇库提价在4730元(吨价，下同)，较4月1日下跌140元，跌幅达2.87%。 "常规检修季PVC检修规模受限，叠加新产能投放等因素影响，供应预期增加。同时国内需求缺乏实质 性增长，出口受外贸关税纷争、印度进口政策影响，难以大幅回升，短期PVC价格重心看跌趋势不 变。"隆众资讯PVC产业链主管石磊说。 供应预期增加 今年PVC生产企业集中检修时间从4月开始预计延续到8月。"五一"假期归来，安徽华塑股份（600935） 有限公司和青海宜化化工有限公司等PVC装置开工率提升。据隆众资讯数据显示，本周期(5月3日至9 日)内，PVC产量预计在47.40万吨，环比提升2.4%。边际企业开工率维持在六七成，西北电石法企业凭 借其成本优势，开工基本稳定在八成以上。 "4月计划检修产能约570万吨，但相较于近两年春季检修规模有所缩小，同比减少20.94%, 难以对供应 端形成有效收缩。"隆众资讯分析师杨荣荣说。 "据卓创资讯（301299）统计，计划在5月至7月试车投产的装置包括浙江嘉化能源（60027 ...

【今日聚烯烃和苯乙烯市场动态】今日，聚烯烃冲高回落，小幅收涨。LLDPE09 合约收 7046 元/吨， 涨 0.51%，持仓变化-12547 手；PP09 合约收 7029 元/吨，涨 0.34%，持仓变化-14290 手。 聚乙烯现货价偏弱调整，石化企业下调部分出厂价，下游心态谨慎，备货积极性不高，国内 LLDPE 市 场主流价格在 7270-7900 元/吨。PP市场价格窄幅整理，部分上游厂商下调出厂价，下游因订单跟进不 足，接盘意愿不高。华北拉丝主流价格在 7050-7290 元/吨，华东拉丝主流价格在 7100-7250 元/吨，华 南拉丝主流价格在 7180-7380 元/吨。 PE供应压力攀升，PP 装置检修集中，供应压力稍有释缓。截至 4 月 30 日当周，PE 开工率为 81.02%， 周环比-0.14%，PP 开工率 76.30%，周环比-0.15%。 下游需求季节性走弱。截止 4 月 30 日当周，农膜开工率 28%，包装 51%（-1%），单丝 45% （+1%），薄膜 44%（-1%），中空 44%（持平），管材 38%（-2%）；塑编开工率 45%（-2%），注 塑开工率 47%（ ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-05-07 市场分析 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6987元/吨（-96），PP主力合约收盘价为6995元/吨（-46），LL华北现货为7320 元/吨（-10），LL华东现货为7330元/吨（-50），PP华东现货为7200元/吨（-80），LL华北基差为333元/吨（+86），LL 华东基差为343元/吨（+46）， PP华东基差为205元/吨（-34）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.4%（+0.6%），PP开工率为74.4%（-1.1%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为659.2元/吨（+88.4），PP油制生产利润为319.2元/吨（+88.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为-677.0元/吨（-10.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-152.3元/吨（+0.0），PP进口利润为-340.1元/吨（-10.0），PP出口利润为20.2美元/吨（+1.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为23.4%（-2.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为47.9%（-1.0%），PP下游塑编开工率 为45.0%（-0.3%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.7%（-0.1%）。 ...

库存：截至4月30日，PVC社会库存样本统计环比减少4.94%至65.37万吨，同比减少25.02%；其中华东 地区在60.16万吨，华南地区在5.21万吨。 【PVC行情展望】 【PVC现货】 国内PVC粉市场现货价格小幅走低，贸易商报盘部分跟跌，下游采购积极性不高，多数意向观望，整体 现货市场成交偏淡。5型电石料，华东主流现汇自提4700-4830元/吨，华南主流现汇自提4790-4840元/ 吨，河北现汇送到4630-4740元/吨，山东现汇送到4710-4800元/吨。 【PVC开工、库存】 开工：截至5月1日，PVC粉整体开工负荷率预估值为76.50%，环比提升0.83个百分点；其中电石法PVC 粉开工负荷率为77.27%，乙烯法PVC粉开工负荷率为74.52%。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最终所有权归报告的来源 机构所有，客户在接收到本报告后，应遵循报告来源机构对报告的版权规 ...

交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 审核：黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 需求分化 成本支撑减弱 20250420 黄桂仁 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率77.35%，环比增加0.68个百分点，同比增加4.17个百分点，处在同期中性位。主要 是乙烯法装置开工率上升，预计本周供应仍将小幅增加。 需求：上周下游制品综合开工率小幅走低。主要是硬制品开工率维持低位，地板类企业受关税影响出口，软 制品开工尚可。 库存：上周社会库存（41 家）72.52万吨，环比降低3.74%，同比降低16.95%。企业库存41.12万吨，环比降 低8.97%，同比增加4.60%。厂库社库均有去库，但总体看库存仍有压力。 观点：电石价格周度环比大幅回落，乙烯价格偏弱，成本驱动偏空。总体看短中期供需两弱，盘面空头趋势 暂未改变，但仍受外围影响波动。 策略：操作方面稳健型暂观望，激进型少量空单持有，可持有虚值看涨期权保护，2509合约压力参考5150- 5200。 产业链结构 周度观点及策略 产业链结构 期现 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely. As of April 11, 2025, the V2505 contract closed at 4,930 yuan/ton, a 2.74% decrease from last week's close. The implementation of US tariffs on China affected PVC downstream product exports, leading to a significant price drop [9]. - On the supply side, several plants, including Tianjin Bohua, Anhui Huasu, and Ningxia Jinyuyuan, underwent maintenance this week. The capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.35% to 76.67%. Among them, the calcium carbide method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.18% to 79.22%, and the ethylene method capacity utilization rate decreased by 3.79% to 69.98%. On the demand side, the spring promotion of pipe enterprises ended, and some floor enterprises stopped production and waited due to tariff impacts. The downstream product operating rate dropped significantly and was at a low level compared to the same period in previous years. As of April 10, PVC social inventory decreased by 3.16% to 753,200 tons, maintaining a downward trend. In terms of costs, the prices of calcium carbide and ethylene declined this week. The average cost of the national calcium carbide method decreased by 0.27% to 5,487 yuan/ton, and the average cost of the ethylene method decreased by 1.42% to 5,708 yuan/ton [9]. - In April, domestic PVC plants will undergo concentrated maintenance. Next week, Sichuan Jinlu and Xinjiang Zhongtai plants are planned to stop production, and the capacity utilization rate is expected to continue to decline. Affected by tariff shocks, downstream enterprises will mainly wait and see, and the product operating rate is expected to remain at a low level. In terms of costs, power restrictions in Inner Mongolia will affect calcium carbide supply, but the concentrated maintenance of calcium carbide downstream will cause the price to decline slightly. The supply of foreign ethylene is sufficient, and domestic demand is weak, so the price has room to decline. In the short term, V2505 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with support around 4,800 below and resistance around 5,000 above [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Price**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, closing at 4,930 yuan/ton on April 11, 2025, down 2.74% from last week [9]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side capacity utilization decreased; demand - side downstream product operating rate dropped; social inventory decreased; costs of calcium carbide and ethylene methods declined [9]. - **Outlook**: Capacity utilization is expected to continue to decline; downstream product operating rate to remain low; calcium carbide and ethylene prices may decline; V2505 to fluctuate weakly [9]. 3.2 Futures Market - **Futures Price and Warehouse Receipts**: V2505 opened with a gap down and fluctuated widely, and the registered warehouse receipt volume increased week - on - week [10]. - **Position and Spread**: The net position of the main contract was short, the reduction of buy orders was less than that of sell orders, and the 5 - 9 spread strengthened slightly [15]. 3.3 Spot Market - **Spot Price - Import and Export**: CFR China quoted at $700 (+0); Southeast Asia quoted at $670 (+0) [22]. - **Spot Price - Overseas**: India quoted at $700 (+0); Northwest Europe quoted at $805 (+20); Houston quoted at $670 (-10) [26][30]. - **Spot Price - Domestic Calcium Carbide and Ethylene Methods**: The prices of calcium carbide and ethylene methods in East China declined this week [33]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis strengthened, and the futures market remained in a premium state [38]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Lanthanum Coke and Calcium Carbide**: Lanthanum coke prices remained stable, and calcium carbide prices declined slightly. The operating rates of lanthanum coke and calcium carbide were 52.63% and 62.38% respectively [42][48]. - **EDC and VCM**: The CIF mid - price of VCM was $530/ton, and the international price of EDC was $226/ton [51]. 3.5 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply - Capacity and Output**: PVC capacity continued to increase in 2024, and the output in March was 206,910 tons, up month - on - month [55]. - **Supply - Capacity Utilization and Maintenance**: The PVC capacity utilization rate decreased week - on - week [59]. - **Demand - Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of pipe enterprises increased week - on - week last week, and that of profile enterprises decreased week - on - week [62]. - **Demand - PVC Floor Export**: PVC floor exports decreased month - on - month in February [68]. - **Import and Export**: Exports increased month - on - month in February, and imports decreased month - on - month and remained at a low level [71]. - **Inventory**: PVC social inventory decreased week - on - week [76]. - **Cost**: The comprehensive costs of calcium carbide methods in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Henan increased, and the ethylene method cost in North China decreased [80]. - **Profit**: The comprehensive profit of the PVC calcium carbide method decreased, and the profit of the East China ethylene method increased week - on - week [84]. 3.6 Options Market - **Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 17.08%, and the implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options was 29.91% [89].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall fundamental situation of LLDPE is bearish, but it is expected to trade sideways today due to factors such as the peak season for plastic film and concentrated new capacity launches [4]. - The fundamental situation of PP is neutral, and it is also expected to trade sideways today with the recovery of downstream demand [6]. 3. Summary by Category LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In February, both the official and Caixin PMIs returned to the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 reached a record high. The Middle - East situation has deteriorated again, and crude oil has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The government supports domestic consumption through measures such as trade - ins during the Two Sessions in March. New capacity launches are still concentrated in March, the industrial chain inventory is neutral, and the demand for plastic film is in the peak season while other demand is stable. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7900 (-40), with an overall bearish fundamental situation [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2505 contract is 223, with a premium ratio of 2.9%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 59.1 million tons (-1.5), which is neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to trade sideways today [4]. - **Likely Factors**: Strong basis and macro - policies to promote consumption [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Concentrated new capacity launches, weak crude oil prices, and the impact of additional tariffs [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in February, both the official and Caixin PMIs returned to the expansion range. The total export volume in the first two months of 2025 reached a record high. The Middle - East situation has deteriorated again, and crude oil has stopped falling and is trading sideways. The government supports domestic consumption through measures such as trade - ins during the Two Sessions in March. One set of equipment such as Zhejiang Petrochemical has restarted this week, and three sets of equipment such as Maoming Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. It is expected that the supply will increase slightly. The industrial chain inventory is neutral, and downstream demand is good, with the demand for plastic weaving and other products recovering recently. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7380 (+0), with a neutral fundamental situation [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2505 contract is 52, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 70.1 million tons (+0.5), which is bearish [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is neutral [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the PP main contract is short and increasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to trade sideways today [6]. - **Likely Factors**: Macro - policies to promote consumption and recent demand recovery [7]. - **Negative Factors**: Weak crude oil prices and the impact of additional tariffs [7]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an upward trend, while the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4319.5, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the capacity, production, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, and the import dependence decreased. The expected capacity in 2025 is 4906, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a cautious outlook for the polyolefin and styrene industry, suggesting a "watch and wait" strategy for investors [13]. Core Insights - The polyolefin market is experiencing slight price declines due to weak demand and supply adjustments, with LLDPE and PP prices at 7790 CNY/ton and 7291 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting weekly declines of 1.30% and 0.37% [1][2]. - The styrene market shows a mixed trend, with prices recovering slightly after a weak start, closing at 8123 CNY/ton, marking a weekly increase of 0.17% [4][5]. - Overall, the report indicates that while there are signs of demand recovery, supply pressures and cost factors are likely to keep prices under pressure in the short term [3][6]. Summary by Sections Strategy Recommendations - LLDPE: Anticipated short-term weak fluctuations with support at 7500-7550 CNY/ton and resistance at 7900-7950 CNY/ton [13]. - PP: Expected to remain weak with support at 7150-7200 CNY/ton and resistance at 7450-7500 CNY/ton [13]. - Styrene: Predicted to experience low-level fluctuations with support at 7750-7800 CNY/ton and resistance at 8500-8550 CNY/ton [13]. Futures Market Situation - LLDPE futures closed at 7790 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,767,398 contracts and an increase in open interest by 12,358 contracts [14]. - PP futures closed at 7291 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,384,915 contracts and an increase in open interest by 4,613 contracts [15]. - Styrene futures closed at 8123 CNY/ton with a trading volume of 1,194,964 contracts and a decrease in open interest by 46,650 contracts [15]. Spot Market Situation - The spot price for LLDPE ranged between 8020-8500 CNY/ton, while PP prices varied from 7170-7430 CNY/ton depending on the region [2]. - Styrene spot prices were reported at 8175 CNY/ton in East China and 8375 CNY/ton in South China [5]. Supply and Demand Fundamentals - Polyethylene production rates decreased slightly to 81.63%, while polypropylene rates increased to 83.48% [2]. - Styrene production rates were reported at 74.68%, with expectations of further supply tightening due to upcoming maintenance [6]. Inventory Levels - As of March 14, total oil inventory was 805,000 tons, with polyethylene trade inventory at 175,940 tons and polypropylene social trade inventory at 46,510 tons [3][6].