聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-20 供需矛盾难改善，延续低位整理 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6833元/吨（+48），PP主力合约收盘价为6434元/吨（+42），LL华北现货为6820 元/吨（-20），LL华东现货为7000元/吨（+100），PP华东现货为6450元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-13元/吨（-68）， LL华东基差为167元/吨（+52）， PP华东基差为16元/吨（-72）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.1%（+0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+1.8%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为178.2元/吨（-3.2），PP油制生产利润为-481.8元/吨（-3.2），PDH制PP生产利润 为-354.4元/吨（-75.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为28.5元/吨（+49.2），PP进口利润为-177.6元/吨（-0.7），PP出口利润为-4.3美元/吨（+0.1）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.4%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开 ...

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, PVC futures prices have hit a nearly ten-year low due to increased supply and decreased demand, particularly influenced by a sluggish real estate sector [1][2]. Supply - 2025 is expected to be a peak year for PVC capacity expansion, with an additional 2.2 million tons projected, leading to a total capacity of 29.93 million tons by year-end, a year-on-year increase of 7.35% [1]. - As of November 14, domestic PVC social inventory was 1.0282 million tons, a slight decrease of 1.27% month-on-month but a significant increase of 23.75% year-on-year, indicating high inventory pressure [1]. Demand - The current demand for PVC is characterized by "weak domestic and strong external" factors, with 80% of downstream demand related to real estate and infrastructure, both of which have seen declines in investment and new projects [1]. - The low operating rates in consumption areas such as pipes and profiles, along with a lack of positive factors in the infrastructure sector, contribute to overall weak demand [1]. Export - India's PVC demand has been growing, with a demand gap of 3 million tons per year, heavily reliant on imports. China's PVC exports to India surged from 7.3% in 2020 to 50.9% in 2024 [2]. - In the first nine months of 2025, China exported 3.3941 million tons of PVC, a year-on-year increase of 47.78%, with 1.215 million tons going to India, accounting for 41.6% of total exports [2]. Cost - Recent declines in oil and coal prices have weakened cost support for PVC, with prices falling below cost lines, leading to industry-wide losses [2]. - The integrated chlor-alkali enterprises are maintaining PVC production through high profits from caustic soda, but the price of caustic soda has dropped by 30% from its peak, making this strategy unsustainable [2]. Short-term Outlook - In the short term, PVC supply continues to grow while demand remains weak, leading to significant inventory pressure and insufficient upward price momentum [3]. - PVC is currently in a low valuation area, with negative factors largely priced in, suggesting limited downside potential. The market is expected to remain in a "bottoming out" and "capping" oscillation pattern, with the 2601 contract projected to trade between 4,400 and 4,800 yuan per ton [3].

成本方面，近期油价和煤价下跌导致PVC成本支撑减弱。截至11月17日，PVC价格跌破成本线，全行业 亏损，电石法亏损700元／吨，乙烯法亏损560元／吨。氯碱综合利润方面，山东氯碱综合利润约-20元 ／吨，基本盈亏平衡。西北氯碱综合利润约1000元／吨。氯碱一体化企业依靠烧碱高利润维持PVC生 产，但烧碱价格自年内高点已回落30%，"以碱补氯"难以持续，行业或迎来新一轮产能调整，高成本装 置将被淘汰。整体来看，PVC行业正面临"成本支撑塌陷+需求恢复乏力"双重压力。 短期来看，PVC供应持续增长，需求偏弱，库存压力大，价格上涨动力不足。但是，当前PVC已处于低 估值区域，利空因素基本得到充分消化，价格下行空间也有限。综合来看，PVC期货短期弱势难改，市 场处于"下有底，上有顶"的震荡格局之中，预计2601合约在4400~4800元／吨区间运行。（作者单位： 广州期货） 需求方面，"内弱外强"是当前PVC需求端最显著的特征。PVC下游需求中八成与房地产、基建相关，近 年来房地产市场低迷，投资、新开工等数据下滑。管材、型材等消费领域开工率偏低，基建领域缺乏利 多，需求端整体疲软。同时PVC在医疗、包装等新兴领域的 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格下调25元/吨。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比减少2.24个百分点至78.51%， PVC开工率转而减少，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率略有回落，虽超过过去两年同期， 只是仍是偏低水平。印度将关于PVC的BIS政策终止，对于中国出口PVC至印度的担忧有所缓解。只是 印度反倾销税即将执行，贸易商开始观望，PVC以价换量，上周出口签单环比回升。上周社会库存小 幅减少，但目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-10月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开 工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、新开工、竣工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商 品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍 为正值，PVC开工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/ 年的甘肃耀望和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政策落地，老装 置也大多通过技改升级，当然反内卷与老旧装置淘汰，解决石化产能过剩问题仍是宏观政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - PE prices continue to decline in a volatile manner due to weakened cost - side support and an unimproved supply - demand imbalance. It will maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - PP's weak supply - demand situation is hard to reverse, and the cost - side support also weakens. It will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. - For investment strategies, it is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading; for inter - period trading, conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05; there is no recommendation for inter - variety trading [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 6785 yuan/ton (-58), PP main contract at 6392 yuan/ton (-75). LL North China spot was 6840 yuan/ton (-10), LL East China spot 6900 yuan/ton (+50), PP East China spot 6480 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was 55 yuan/ton (+48), LL East China basis 115 yuan/ton (+108), PP East China basis 88 yuan/ton (+75) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 83.1% (+0.5%), PP operating rate 79.6% (+1.8%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 181.4 yuan/ton (+5.5), PP oil - based production profit - 428.6 yuan/ton (+5.5), PDH - based PP production profit - 278.7 yuan/ton (-65.3) [1]. - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit was - 20.7 yuan/ton (-11.8), PP import profit - 176.9 yuan/ton (+31.3), PP export profit - 4.4 dollars/ton (+1.5) [1]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 50.0% (+0.0%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate 50.4% (-0.4%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate 44.2% (-0.2%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate 62.6% (+0.2%) [1]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 PE - **Cost**: Coal prices dropped significantly, and oil prices fluctuated widely with long - term supply - demand pressure, weakening the cost - side support [2]. - **Supply**: Newly added device shutdowns in Ningxia Baofeng and Jilin Petrochemical, restarts in Zhenhai Refining and Sinochem Quanzhou. Future planned maintenance is limited, the operating rate continues to rise, and new production capacities such as Guangxi Petrochemical are gradually released, so supply pressure persists [2]. - **Demand**: PE downstream overall operating rate declined month - on - month. Agricultural film demand is expected to shrink, and packaging film operating rate decreased month - on - month. Overall downstream demand is still limited [2]. - **Inventory**: Due to the unimproved supply - demand contradiction, inventory pressure persists, and there is a lack of upward drivers in the short term [2]. 3.2.2 PP - **Cost**: Coal prices dropped significantly, and although international oil prices fluctuated widely and the price of propane rebounded slightly, cost support is still limited [3]. - **Supply**: Newly added device shutdowns in Sinochem Quanzhou Line 1 and Guangdong Petrochemical Line 2, and the full - scale shutdown of Juzhengyuan's 120 - million - ton PDH device for maintenance. Although short - term temporary maintenance eases supply pressure, it has limited impact on the oversupply pattern. Upstream is actively reducing prices to sell, but demand is weak, and inventory clearance pressure is high [3]. - **Demand**: Downstream overall operating rate is gradually weakening, mainly replenishing inventory on a just - in - time basis when prices are low. Demand follow - up is still weak [3]. - **Market Outlook**: The loose supply - demand fundamentals may limit its rebound space, and it will continue the weak and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see. It is in a short - term volatile pattern, and prices are still under pressure in the long term [4]. - **Inter - period**: Conduct sell - near - buy - far arbitrage for L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 when prices are high [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No recommendation [4]

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-11-18 PP供应小幅收窄，需求跟进仍偏弱 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6843元/吨（-10），PP主力合约收盘价为6467元/吨（-7），LL华北现货为6850 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为6850元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6480元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为7元/吨（+10），LL华 东基差为7元/吨（+10）， PP华东基差为13元/吨（+7）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.1%（+0.5%），PP开工率为79.6%（+1.8%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为175.9元/吨（-104.8），PP油制生产利润为-434.1元/吨（-104.8），PDH制PP生产 利润为-213.3元/吨（-9.2）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-9.0元/吨（+0.3），PP进口利润为-208.2元/吨（+0.3），PP出口利润为-5.8美元/吨（+0.0）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为50.0%（+0.0%），PE下游包装膜开工率为50.4%（-0.4%），PP下游塑编开工率 为44.2%（-0.2%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为62. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Polyolefins face significant upward pressure and are expected to trade in a range. The PE main contract is expected to oscillate within a range, with support at 6,800, while the PP main contract is expected to oscillate weakly, with support at 6,500. The LP spread is expected to widen [8]. - Plastics still have supply - demand contradictions and are expected to trade in a range [9]. - PP faces considerable upward pressure and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [50]. Summary by Directory Plastic Weekly Market Review - On November 14, the closing price of the plastic main contract was 6,853 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%. The average price of LDPE was 9,116.67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1.08%; the average price of HDPE was 7,532.5 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23%; the average price of LLDPE (7042) in South China was 7,292.35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 0.59%. The LLDPE South China basis was 439.35 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 17.71%, and the 1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+17) [8][11]. Key Data Tracking - **Month - spread**: On November 14, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 62 yuan/ton (+17), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 41 yuan/ton (+5), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 103 yuan/ton (- 22) [17]. - **Spot Price**: Detailed spot prices of different regions and varieties of HDPE, LDPE, and LLDPE are provided, along with their price changes [18][19]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.81 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at 64.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.54 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (+0) [21]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PE was - 404 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based PE was - 195 yuan/ton, a decrease of 236 yuan/ton from the previous week [26]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of polyethylene production in China was 83.14%, an increase of 0.55 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of polyethylene was 67.37 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.97%. The maintenance loss this week was 8.89 tons, a decrease of 0.40 tons from the previous week [30]. - **2025 Production Plan**: Multiple companies have put into production or are planned to put into production PE devices in 2025, with a total planned production capacity of 543 [33]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' PE devices are in maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [34]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall operating rate of domestic agricultural film was 49.96%, unchanged from the previous week; the operating rate of PE packaging film was 50.41%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points from the previous weekend, and the operating rate of PE pipes was 31.67%, unchanged from the previous weekend [36]. - **Downstream Production Ratio**: Currently, the production ratio of linear film is the highest, accounting for 34%, with a difference of 1.3% from the annual average level. The data of low - pressure pipes differ significantly from the annual average, currently accounting for 13.5%, with a difference of 3.2% from the annual average level [41]. - **Inventory**: This week, the social inventory of plastic enterprises was 50.01 tons, a decrease of 0.95 tons from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.86% [43]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polyethylene warehouse receipts was 12,067 lots, a decrease of 602 lots from the previous week [47]. PP Weekly Market Review - On November 14, the closing price of the polypropylene main contract was 6,474 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, a week - on - week increase of 0.15% [51]. Key Data Tracking - **Downstream Spot Price**: The prices and price changes of various PP - related products and other plastics are provided [53][55]. - **Basis**: On November 14, the spot price of polypropylene reported by Shengyi.com was 6,486.67 yuan/ton (- 220). The PP basis was 13 yuan/ton (- 230), and the basis narrowed. The 1 - 5 month spread was - 101 yuan/ton (+9), and the month - spread widened [57]. - **Month - spread**: On November 14, 2025, the 1 - 5 month spread was - 101 yuan/ton (+9), the 5 - 9 month spread was - 38 yuan/ton (+3), and the 9 - 1 month spread was 139 yuan/ton (- 12) [63]. - **Cost**: In October, WTI crude oil closed at 59.81 US dollars/barrel, a decrease of 0.03 US dollars/barrel from the previous week, and Brent crude oil closed at 64.24 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.54 US dollars/barrel from the previous week. The quotation of anthracite at the Yangtze River port was 1,110 yuan/ton (+0) [68]. - **Profit**: The profit of oil - based PP was - 585.28 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous weekend, and the profit of coal - based PP was - 531.73 yuan/ton, a decrease of 126.73 yuan/ton from the previous weekend [73]. - **Supply**: This week, the operating rate of Chinese PP petrochemical enterprises was 79.63%, an increase of 1.85 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly output of PP pellets reached 82.22 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.22%, and the weekly output of PP powder reached 7.87 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.37% [78]. - **Maintenance Statistics**: Many enterprises' PP production lines are in maintenance, with some having undetermined restart times [81]. - **Demand**: This week, the average operating rate of downstream industries was 53%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points. The operating rate of plastic weaving was 44.24% (- 0.22%), the operating rate of BOPP was 62.60% (+0.15%), the operating rate of injection molding was 59.21% (+0.08%), and the operating rate of pipes was 37.67% (+0.37%) [83]. - **Import and Export Profit**: This week, the import profit of polypropylene was - 282.27 US dollars/ton, an increase of 65.42 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week. The export profit was - 21.39 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.07 US dollars/ton compared with the previous week [89]. - **Inventory**: This week, the domestic inventory of polypropylene was 62.00 tons (+3.35%); the inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina increased by 7.26% week - on - week; the inventory of traders decreased by 4.94% week - on - week; the port inventory increased by 3.56% week - on - week [92]. - **Inventory of Downstream Enterprises**: This week, the finished product inventory of large - scale plastic weaving enterprises was 1,001.19 tons, a decrease of 4.68% week - on - week, and the raw material inventory of BOPP was 9.60 days, an increase of 3.11% week - on - week [100]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of polypropylene warehouse receipts was 14,642 lots, an increase of 13 lots from the previous week [105].

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月12日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加2.49个百分点至80.75%，PVC开工 率继续增加，仍处于近年同期偏高水平。PVC下游开工率小幅开始回落，虽超过过去两年同期，只是 仍是偏低水平。印度将BIS政策再次延期六个月至2025年12月24日执行，中国台湾台塑11月份报价下 调30-40美元/吨，8月14日，印度公示最新的进口PVC反倾销税，其中中国大陆地区上调50美元/吨左 右，四季度中国PVC出口预期减弱。目前贸易商开始观望，上周出口签单环比回落。上周社会库存小 幅增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-9月份，房地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、 竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、施工等同比增速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交 面积环比继续回落，处于近年同期最低水平，房地产改善仍需时间。氯碱综合利润仍为正值，PVC开 工率同比往年偏高。同时新增产能上，40万吨/年的天津渤化已满负荷生产，30万吨/年的甘肃耀望 和30万吨/年的嘉兴嘉化试车后低负荷运行。目前PVC产业还未有实际政 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The PP industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as limited downstream order follow - up, insufficient stock - up demand during Double Eleven, and the lack of large - scale centralized procurement [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. Among them, the plastic weaving开工率 rose by 0.26 percentage points to 44.46%, with a slight increase in orders but slightly lower than last year [1][4] - On November 11, new maintenance devices such as Hainan Ethylene were added, causing the PP enterprise开工率 to drop to around 83%, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring dropped to around 24% [1] - At the beginning of the month, petrochemical inventory accumulated significantly, and currently it is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - In terms of cost, the market has digested the news of Russian oil sanctions, the meeting between Chinese and US leaders was in line with market expectations, OPEC + decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December but suspend production increase in the first quarter of next year, and crude oil prices fluctuated within a narrow range [1] - In terms of supply, PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a new production capacity of 400,000 tons per year was put into operation in mid - October, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently [1] Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the PP2601 contract decreased in price with increasing positions, closing at 6464 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. The position increased by 2552 lots to 655,336 lots [2] - In the spot market, PP spot prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with drawstring priced at 6260 - 6570 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on November 7, maintenance devices such as the new second line of CNOOC Daxie restarted, and the PP enterprise开工率 rose to around 83.5%, at a moderately low level [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of November 7, the PP downstream开工率 increased by 0.52 percentage points to 53.14% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [4] - On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] - For raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by $20 per ton to $710 per ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The PVC industry is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future due to factors such as increased supply, decreased export expectations, high inventory, and a sluggish real - estate market [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. The downstream PVC operating rate has started to decline slightly and is still at a low level. India has postponed the BIS policy for six months until December 24, 2025. The price quoted by Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China in November has been reduced by $30 - 40 per ton. India has raised the anti - dumping tax on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton, weakening the export expectations of Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. Traders are starting to wait and see, and last week's export orders decreased compared to the previous week. The social inventory has increased slightly and is still high. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement of the real - estate market still takes time. The comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is still positive, and the PVC operating rate is higher than in previous years. New production capacities are in operation, and there is no actual policy implementation in the PVC industry yet [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2601 contract increased in positions while oscillating downward, with a minimum price of 4,570 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 4,613 yuan per ton, and finally closed at 4,572 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.74%. The position volume increased by 63,608 lots to 1,407,131 lots [2] Basis - On November 11, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,520 yuan per ton, and the futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,572 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 52 yuan per ton, weakening by 2 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3] Fundamental Tracking Supply Side - The production of devices such as Ningbo Zhenyang and Inner Mongolia Yili has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased by 2.49 percentage points to 80.75%, remaining at a relatively high level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons, Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons, and Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons, are in different stages of operation [4] Demand Side - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The commercial housing sales area was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%; the residential sales area decreased by 5.6%. The commercial housing sales volume was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 7.6%. The new housing construction area was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%; the new residential construction area decreased by 18.3%. The construction area of real - estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The housing completion area was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%; the residential completion area decreased by 18.3%. As of the week of November 9, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 32.15% compared to the previous week, reaching the lowest level in recent years [5] Inventory - As of the week of November 6, the PVC social inventory increased by 1.13% to 1.0416 million tons, a 26.42% increase compared to the same period last year. The social inventory increased slightly and is still high [6]