Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PVC is expected to run in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and limited Indian market demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate dropped by 3.5 percentage points, and downstream product orders are poor. In terms of exports, PVC increased sign - offs slightly last week by reducing prices, but the Indian market price is low with limited demand. The CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia prices decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory decreased slightly but remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. New production capacity has been added, and the market sentiment is boosted by the rebound of commodities such as coking coal, but the upward space of PVC is limited [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and ran in a volatile manner, closing at 4,757 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, with an increase of 5,776 lots in open interest to 979,053 lots [2] - On December 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,455 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,757 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 302 yuan/ton, strengthening by 33 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking Supply - Affected by devices such as Ningbo Hanwha and Leshan Yongxiang, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] Demand - The real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of December 21, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [5] Inventory - As of the week of December 18, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. The inventory decreased slightly but remained high [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The PVC market is showing a trend of oscillating upward, but the upward space in the near - term is limited. The PVC supply side has reduced开工率, but there is new production capacity. The demand side is affected by the slow improvement of the real - estate market, and the inventory is still at a high level. The market sentiment is boosted by the rebound of bulk commodities, but factors such as low prices in the Indian market and high futures warehouse receipts also have an impact on the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC开工率 has decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. The downstream开工率 has dropped by 3.5 percentage points, and the orders for downstream products are not good. The export has increased slightly by trading at a lower price, but the demand in the Indian market is limited. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high. The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and the improvement needs time. New production capacity has been put into operation. Although the market sentiment has been boosted, the upward space of PVC in the near - term is limited [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 4,704 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 4,785 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 4,781 yuan/ton, up 1.55%. The position increased by 8,434 lots to 973,277 lots [2] 3.3 Basis - On December 24, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region rose to 4,450 yuan/ton, and the futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,785 yuan/ton. The current basis is - 335 yuan/ton, weakening by 7 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking 3.4.1 Supply - Affected by the devices of Ningbo Hanwha, Leshan Yongxiang, etc., the PVC开工率 has decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year), and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) have been put into operation in the second half of the year [4] 3.4.2 Demand - The real - estate market is still in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real - estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area of commercial housing all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of December 21, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities has rebounded by 20.86% week - on - week but is still at the lowest level in recent years [5] 3.4.3 Inventory - As of the week of December 18, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory has slightly decreased but is still high [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, with a weak trading atmosphere. It is expected that polyolefins will fluctuate weakly in the near term. Due to the possible new capacity of plastics coming into operation this year and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Plastic and PP开工率 (Plastic and PP Operating Rates) - Plastic operating rate dropped 4 percentage points to around 86% due to new maintenance devices such as Qilu Petrochemical LDPE, currently at a neutral level [10] - PP operating rate dropped 2 percentage points to around 83% due to new maintenance devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's fifth line, at a slightly below - neutral level [10] 3.2 Plastic and PP下游开工率 (Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates) - As of the week of December 19, PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and orders continue to decline. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [16] - As of the week of December 19, PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.19 percentage points to 53.80%, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn yarn, decreased by 0.06 percentage points to 44.00%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [16] 3.3 Plastic基差 (Plastic Basis) - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price. The basis of the 05 contract rose to 330 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [20] 3.4 Plastic and PP库存 (Plastic and PP Inventories) - On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 660,000 tons, 75,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction is slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [24]

Group 1 - The polyethylene market is experiencing a significant supply-demand imbalance, with prices nearing the extreme lows seen at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 [1] - As of December 19, 2025, the LLDPE price index is at 6470, LDPE at 8271, and HDPE at 7057, indicating a severe downturn in market sentiment [1] - The current price decline is attributed to profound changes in industry structure and macroeconomic logic, rather than a simple historical repetition [1] Group 2 - Domestic polyethylene capacity expansion accelerated post-2020, with an annual growth rate exceeding 18% from 2020 to 2021, followed by a slowdown in 2022-2023 [3] - In 2025, new supply will be driven by projects from foreign giants like ExxonMobil and BASF, as well as large domestic refining and chemical integration projects [3] - The capacity expansion trend is expected to continue into 2026, with a higher expansion rate than in 2025, while the exit of old capacity will take a considerable amount of time [3] Group 3 - The demand for polyethylene froze during the global pandemic in March-April 2020, leading to historical low points due to panic over the unknowns of the virus [4] - The ongoing price decline in 2025 is a result of persistent supply expansion coupled with weak demand growth, creating a long-term contradiction in the market [4] - Expectations for a market rebound are diminishing as the supply-demand dynamics remain unfavorable [4]

Market Overview - The PVC market in East China has seen price increases, with calcium carbide method prices ranging from 4380 to 4470 CNY/ton and ethylene method prices around 4450 to 4650 CNY/ton [1] - The PVC operating rate is at 78.4%, a decrease of 0.6%, ending a three-week increase, with ethylene facilities resuming operations and calcium carbide method facilities reducing output, equivalent to the shutdown of a 500,000-ton capacity [1] - Current inventory levels are transitioning to depletion, with social inventory statistics showing a slight increase of 0.03% week-on-week to 1.0593 million tons, and a year-on-year increase of 27.63% [1] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures notes that the main contract is experiencing a strong continuation, with a resurgence of anti-involution sentiment and overall strength in domestic commodities. However, high inventory levels and weak demand during the seasonal off-peak period are creating supply-demand imbalances that are difficult to resolve before concentrated maintenance occurs in the upstream and midstream sectors [3] - The recent decline in chlor-alkali prices and cash flow losses in self-sufficient calcium carbide facilities in Northwest China are points of concern, with a strategy of holding light long positions in the short term and waiting for continued inventory depletion for potential buying opportunities in the medium to long term [3] - Guangzhou Futures highlights ongoing pressure from new capacity additions, with the market facing high operating rates, high inventory, and weak demand, limiting the rebound potential of futures prices. Despite recent policy support leading to a slight rebound in undervalued prices, the overall market remains in a low-level oscillation pattern [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply and demand sides of the polyolefin market are under continuous pressure, and the price rebound lacks momentum. For PE, the supply is expected to increase while the demand is weakening, leading to large inventory pressure and limited short - term improvement. For PP, the supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6479 yuan/ton (-64), and the PP main contract is 6254 yuan/ton (-2). LL and PP spot prices and basis have different changes. [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 is 84.1% (+0.1%), and PP开工率 is 78.3% (+0.7%). [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is 358.7 yuan/ton (+127.6), PP oil - based production profit is - 261.3 yuan/ton (+127.6), and PDH - based PP production profit is - 714.1 yuan/ton (+60.0). [1] - **Imports and Exports**: LL import profit is - 100.0 yuan/ton (+5.1), PP import profit is - 268.1 yuan/ton (+4.9), and PP export profit is - 12.1 US dollars/ton (-0.6). [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film and packaging film开工率 decline, while PP downstream BOPP film开工率 increases slightly and plastic weaving开工率 remains unchanged. [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply is expected to increase due to low maintenance and new device production. Demand is weakening as downstream开工率 drops. Inventory pressure is large, and cost support is weakening. [2] - **PP**: Supply is expected to remain high with less maintenance. Demand is limited, and inventory levels are high. Cost support is weakening, and short - term rebound drivers are limited. [3] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, with prices expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom in the short term. - **Inter - period**: No strategy is provided. - **Inter - variety**: Short the spread of L05 - PP05 when it is high. [4]

Group 1: Methanol Polyolefin Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View Iranian plants have started to shut down, leading to a resonance rebound in ports and inland areas. The basis has strengthened slightly, unloading is slow, and ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks with many floating storage tanks. It is expected to return to inventory accumulation later. In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons. It is difficult to reduce imports from December to January. The futures contract 01 offers a risk - free arbitrage opportunity for imports. It is believed that the end - point of 01 will still be high inventory, and it is advisable to short the 1 - 5 spread on rallies [1]. Summary of Related Data - **Price Data**: The daily changes of动力煤期货, Jiangsu spot, South China spot, etc. are 0, 10, 20, - 5, 10, - 10, - 5 respectively [1]. - **Import and Inventory**: In November, Iran shipped 1.1 million tons. It is difficult to reduce imports from December to January. Ports have been destocking for two consecutive weeks, but it is expected to return to inventory accumulation later [1]. Group 2: Polyethylene (PE) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The overall inventory of polyethylene is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The external markets in Europe, America and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are oscillating, and LD is weakening. The number of maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion and US quotes. The pressure from new plants in 2025 is large, and the commissioning of new plants should be monitored [4]. Summary of Related Data - **Price and Profit**: The import profit is around - 200. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and LD is weakening [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of upstream Sinopec and PetroChina, as well as coal - chemical enterprises, has decreased, while the social inventory remains the same. The raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream enterprises are neutral [4]. Group 3: Polypropylene (PP) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The upstream and mid - stream inventories of polypropylene are decreasing. The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export has been good this year. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is oscillating, and the powder production start - up is stable. The拉丝 production ratio is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished - product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH plant overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [4]. Summary of Related Data - **Price and Profit**: The basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, the import profit is around - 700, and the export profit has been good. The PDH profit is around - 400 [4]. - **Inventory**: The upstream and mid - stream inventories are decreasing [4]. Group 4: Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided Core View The basis remains at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of mid - and upstream enterprises are continuously accumulating. The summer seasonal maintenance of northwest plants has a load center between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. Attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the continuity of exports in Q4. The recent export orders have decreased slightly. The coal sentiment is positive, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The export counter - offer of caustic soda is FOB380. The current static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - situation is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [4]. Summary of Related Data - **Price and Profit**: The basis of high - end delivery products is - 20, and the export profit has decreased from 309 to 256 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventories of mid - and upstream enterprises are continuously accumulating [4].

目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月18日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.43%，环比减少0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量34.376万吨，环比减少3.21%,乙烯法企业产 量14.531万吨，环比增加7.43%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为48.89%，环比减少0.18个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.13%，环比减少0.73个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.6%，环比增加0.200个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The overall supply - demand pattern of PP remains unchanged, there is no further macro - level positive news, the spot trading atmosphere is light, and it is expected that the upward space of PP will be limited in the near future. Due to the possibility of new PP production capacity coming on - stream this year and the gradual exit of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP price spread is expected to narrow [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1] - On December 16, there were few changes in maintenance devices, the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 84%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring PP dropped to around 24% [1] - Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years. On the cost side, some previously faulty oil fields in Iraq have resumed production. The United States is still actively promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, and Ukraine has made certain compromises on security guarantees. The crack spread of refined oil products in Europe and the United States has continued to decline, and crude oil prices have fallen [1] - In terms of supply, the 400,000 - ton/year new production capacity of PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical was put into operation in mid - October. Recently, the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, orders for plastic weaving continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, the market lacks large - scale centralized procurement, which has limited support for the market, and traders generally offer discounts to stimulate transactions [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with increasing positions, with a minimum price of 6,230 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,278 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,256 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.13%. The open interest increased by 11,398 lots to 497,942 lots [2] - Spot: The spot prices of PP in most regions have declined. The drawstring PP is quoted at 5,980 - 6,330 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On December 16, new maintenance devices such as the second - phase HDPE of Sinopec - SK Wuhan Petrochemical were added, and the operating rate of plastics dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - Demand side: As of the week ending December 12, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, which is at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. However, the operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - On Tuesday, the early - morning inventory of petrochemicals decreased by 30,000 tons to 720,000 tons week - on - week, 65,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, the inventory reduction of petrochemicals has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 02 dropped to $60/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $745/ton week - on - week [6]

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly Report - Analyst: Su Miaoda - Release Time: December 15, 2025 - Reported Company: Guantong Futures Co., Ltd. Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of polyolefins remains unchanged, the trading atmosphere is weak, and the upward space of polyolefins is expected to be limited in the near future [4]. - Due to the possibility of new plastic production capacity coming on - stream within the year and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to continue to decline [4]. - Plastics and PP are oscillating downward [5]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 increased by 2.5 percentage points to around 90%, at a neutral level, due to the restart of maintenance devices such as Ningxia Baofeng HDPE Phase II [14]. - PP企业开工率 rose 3.5 percentage points to around 85%, also at a neutral level, as maintenance devices like Zhong'an United's single - line restarted [14]. 2. Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of December 12, PE下游开工率 decreased by 0.76 percentage points to 43.00% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing, and the overall PE downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level in recent years [20]. - As of the week of December 12, PP下游开工率 increased by 0.06 percentage points to 53.99% week - on - week, at a relatively low level over the years. However, the weaving开工率 of the drawing main downstream decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 44.06%, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than last year [20]. 3. Plastic基差 - The decline of the spot price is smaller than that of the futures price, and the basis of the 01 contract rose to 214 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [23]. 4. Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the petrochemical early inventory decreased by 10,000 tons week - on - week to 680,000 tons, 60,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical inventory reduction has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [27].