文｜《好博会》报道组 张俊 【期数】 No.57 【人物】 卫仕联合创始人 吕少骏 【 TA 说】 宠物寿命有限，哪怕能让它健健康康地多活一天，就让我们所有的努力，有了结结实实的 意义。 吕少骏至今仍然清楚记得，儿时陪伴了自己多年的猫咪在它8岁那年离开了。 年幼的他当时还不懂，以为猫的寿命就是那么短。后来他才知道，原来猫是可以活到15- 20岁的。 但它为什么没有活到这个年纪？ 他总结为喂养习惯问题。早年中国人养宠物大多是工具属性，比如抓老鼠、看家护院，喂的 也是剩菜剩饭，往往会忽视宠物的营养和健康问题。 这段童年记忆也在他的心里种下了一颗创业的种子，那就是要为中国的宠物健康做一些事， 让宠物们活得更健康一些，与主人的陪伴时间更久一些。 6月27—29日，在北京展览馆，卫仕将带着他们研发的宠物食品亮相首届美好生活博览 会。届时，卫仕的"余粮碗"公益活动也将暖心上线，现场观众参与"不弃养承诺"打卡行 动，即可领取"余粮碗套装"，为流浪小猫带去一份温暖与关爱。 创业初心 让宠物活得更健康一些 2005 年，国内宠物食品赛道几乎还处于蛮荒期，也就是在那年，一群年轻人怀揣着让宠物 活得更健康一些的初心，创立了卫仕品牌 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts the Federal Reserve will implement seven rate cuts in 2026, starting in March, with the final rate expected to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, which is 175 basis points lower than the current rate of 4.25%-4.5% [1] - Dongfang Jincheng anticipates further interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions from the central bank in the second half of the year, with a possible rate cut of 30 basis points and a reserve requirement reduction of 0.5 percentage points [3] - CITIC Securities suggests that the central bank may provide liquidity support through reserve requirement ratio cuts, especially considering the increased demand for liquidity from financial institutions due to accelerated government bond issuance [5] Group 2: Technology and Innovation - BlackRock expresses optimism about the potential for more "DeepSeek moments" in China's biotechnology, automation, and autonomous driving sectors, indicating a favorable environment for strong innovation in these tech companies [2] - CITIC Securities highlights the acceleration of AI application monetization overseas, predicting that 2025 will be a pivotal year for AI agents in various sectors, with early adopters likely to see cost reductions and performance improvements [4] - CITIC Securities also notes that the market for sensors used in humanoid robots is expected to reach 11.9 billion yuan by 2030, driven by the increasing deployment of humanoid robots and declining hardware costs [7] Group 3: Consumer and Market Trends - CITIC Jiantou focuses on investment opportunities in the pet sector, noting that the pet food market remains vibrant with significant growth potential, particularly for domestic brands amid ongoing trends of domestic substitution [3] - Huatai Securities emphasizes the importance of energy companies that can increase production and reduce costs, particularly in light of potential disruptions to oil supply and the upward revision of Brent crude oil price forecasts for 2025-2026 [6]

行 业 及 产 业 2025 年 06 月 25 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 深 盛瀚 A0230522080006 shenghan@swsresearch.com 胡静航 A0230524090002 hujh@swsresearch.com 联系人 胡静航 (8621)23297818× hujh@swsresearch.com 从历年"618"购物节看宠物食品行业变化 看好 ——宠物食品行业系列深度之六 本期投资提示： 证 券 研 究 报 告 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 度 农林牧渔 - 证券分析师 ⚫ 引言：2024 年下半年以来，宠物经济的市场关注度日趋提升，板块估值拔高后，市场 对于高频数据和月度销售表现的关注与跟踪也更加细致。作为主要依赖线上销售的行 业，宠物食品在"618"与"双十一"期间的销售表现备受关注，本篇报告详细总结 2025 年"618"期间宠物食品的销售表现，同时复盘了过去五年的行业情况，并在此 基础之上，分析总结了中国宠物食品行业近年来的行业发展趋势。 ⚫ 2025 年"618"期间宠物食品销售维持高增。据星图 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of CITIC Securities is that the revaluation of bank net assets by investors is an intrinsic driver for the upward valuation of the banking industry in 2025 [1] - According to the report, the overall recovery of institutional investor allocation in 2024 is indicated by the significant increase in the scale of passive funds and the steady increase in active fund holdings in bank stocks [1] - The report highlights that the demand for stable return equity assets from insurance funds continues, suggesting that there is still room for institutional allocation in bank stocks [1] Group 2 - According to Open Source Securities, the stock market presents a clear high cost-performance ratio, with stock dividend yields being relatively high compared to domestic deposit and bond yields [2] - The bond market is experiencing a flattening yield curve as it anticipates increased monetary easing in the second half of the year, with a bullish sentiment prevailing among bond market participants [2] Group 3 - CITIC Jiantou emphasizes focusing on investment opportunities in the pet sector within the agricultural industry, noting that the pet food segment still possesses high growth potential due to total expansion and structural optimization [3] - The report mentions that domestic brands in the pet sector are expected to have considerable long-term growth space, driven by the trend of domestic substitution [3] - Companies with forward-looking overseas production capacity, particularly in North America, are likely to avoid negative impacts from uncertain tariff policies and may even benefit from them [3]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **agriculture sector**, focusing on **swine farming**, **aquaculture**, and **pet food industries** [1][2][3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Swine Farming Sector - The swine farming sector's priority has increased due to **fund allocation** and **valuation considerations**. The optimization of production capacity is expected to be the main theme, with an upward revision of market conditions anticipated for 2026 and beyond [1][3][4]. - In Q1 2025, there was significant **supply pressure** in the swine industry, leading to low price fluctuations. However, a decrease in feed prices improved farming profits, with net profits for self-bred pigs at **77.82 CNY per head**, a significant improvement from a loss of **96 CNY per head** in the previous year [1][5]. - The **number of piglets** increased by **16.33%** year-on-year, but the survival rate for fattening pigs remained stable, raising concerns about potential oversupply risks [1][6]. - The concentration of the top three companies in the swine sector reached **16.84%** in 2024, with Muyuan exceeding **10%**. The average debt-to-asset ratio for the swine farming sector was **56%**, down **4.2%** year-on-year, indicating ongoing financial pressure [1][8]. - As of April 2025, the number of breeding sows was **40.38 million**, showing a **1.3%** year-on-year increase, but still within a reasonable range for production capacity control [1][9]. Aquaculture Sector - The aquaculture sector is performing well, with prices for common fish species like grass carp and crucian carp rising due to reduced supply following previous years of losses. Specific species like **California bass** and **yellow catfish** are experiencing strong price performance [11]. - The **South American white shrimp** market has seen prices drop to their lowest for the year, but a recovery is expected towards the end of the year [11]. - Overall, the aquaculture sector is witnessing improved profitability, leading to increased feed demand, which is projected to grow year-on-year [11][12]. Pet Food Industry - The pet food market has shown significant growth, with exports increasing despite a **5%** decline in exports to the U.S. due to trade policy uncertainties. However, exports to Southeast Asia have surged by **51%** [13]. - The domestic market for pet food is also growing, with online sales showing double-digit growth, indicating a trend of consumption upgrade [13][14]. - The market concentration for pet food brands has increased, with the top 10 brands holding **36.56%** of the market share, reflecting a rise in both sales volume and prices [14]. Future Trends and Investment Directions - The swine industry is expected to maintain low prices in the second half of 2025 due to ample supply, with piglet prices also likely to fluctuate more significantly [7][10]. - Investment focus should be on low-cost, high-quality pig farming companies such as Muyuan and Wens Foodstuffs, as well as feed companies like Haida Group [16]. - In the pet sector, companies with strong product innovation and brand upgrade potential should be prioritized, alongside those capable of resource integration in the pet medical field [17]. Additional Important Insights - The overall agricultural sector performed well in the first half of 2025, particularly in consumer growth areas like pet consumption and aquaculture, with some companies exceeding expectations [2]. - The differentiation and increased trading density in the new consumption sector warrant a reevaluation of valuation levels across different segments [2][4].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that the snack giant Three Squirrels is re-entering the pet food market by establishing a subsidiary named "Anhui E Le Ge Miao Pet Food Co., Ltd." with a registered capital of 5 million RMB, focusing on pet food and related services [2][3]. - Three Squirrels previously attempted to enter the pet industry in 2020 with the brand "Yang Le Ge Mao Hai," but exited due to strategic adjustments. Now, with recovering performance, the company is investing heavily to launch a new brand "Jin Pai Nai Ba," targeting the pet food sector [3][4]. - The pet economy in China is rapidly growing, with the industry scale reaching 592.8 billion RMB in 2023 and expected to exceed 1 trillion RMB by 2028. Pet food accounts for over 50% of this market, with cat food growing faster than dog food, indicating significant opportunities for new brands [3][4]. Group 2 - The pet food market is highly competitive, with traditional brands and new entrants from various food companies. Three Squirrels has advantages in supply chain and online sales experience, but faces challenges in gaining consumer trust in pet nutrition [4][5]. - The previous attempt with "Yang Le Ge Mao Hai" achieved sales of over 2.5 million RMB during the 2020 Double Eleven shopping festival, but was ultimately transferred due to strategic changes. The success of "Jin Pai Nai Ba" remains uncertain in the saturated market [4][5]. - Three Squirrels is also diversifying into other sectors such as alcohol, prepared dishes, and daily chemicals, aiming to create a "full-category consumption ecosystem." The success of this diversification strategy is yet to be tested in the market [4][5].

农林牧渔 分析师：张蔓梓 登记编码：S0730522110001 zhangmz@ccnew.com 13681931564 畜禽价格低迷，宠物食品 618 消费表 现亮眼 ——农林牧渔行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市(维持) 盈利预测和投资评级 | 公司简称 | 24EPS 25EPS | | 25PE | 评级 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 牧原股份 | 3.30 | 3.76 | 10.26 | 增持 | | 普莱柯 | 0.27 | 0.52 | 26.60 | 增持 | | 秋乐种业 | 0.31 | 0.33 | 58.86 | 增持 | | 乖宝宠物 | 1.56 | 2.03 | 48.59 | 增持 | | 中宠股份 | 1.34 | 1.48 | 36.11 | 增持 | | 佩蒂股份 | 0.75 | 0.91 | 15.46 | 增持 | 农林牧渔相对沪深 300 指数表现 资料来源：Wind，中原证券研究所 -15% -10% -4% 1% 6% 12% 17% 22% 2024.06 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1] Core Insights - The 2025 618 shopping festival has been extended compared to 2024, with simplified discount rules, leading to strong performance from domestic beauty brands [3][8] - Tmall's overall GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) during the 618 festival is expected to grow by 10% year-on-year, marking the highest quality growth in three years, with total e-commerce sales reaching 855.6 billion yuan, a 15.2% increase [3][9] - The beauty sector on Tmall is projected to see a year-on-year growth of 11.1%, accounting for 41.3% of the overall market [3][9] - Key domestic brands like Proya and Han Shu have secured top positions on Tmall and Douyin, while international brands are also regaining market share [3][9][11] - The pet food segment continues to show high growth, with significant increases in sales for various pet food categories [3][12] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The 2025 618 shopping festival features a more refined promotional timeline, with a focus on simplified discount rules and stable promotional intensity [3][8] Sales Performance - Tmall's beauty sales during the 618 festival are expected to grow by 11.1%, with Proya and Han Shu leading the rankings on Tmall and Douyin respectively [3][9][11] - The overall e-commerce sales during the 618 festival reached 855.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.2% year-on-year growth [3][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with upward momentum and new product catalysts, such as Ruoyu Chen, Shangmei Co., Guibao Pet, and Zhongchong Co., as well as those with attractive valuations like Maogeping, Proya, and Juzibio [3][12] Market Review - The report notes a decline in the retail index by 2.75% for the week of June 16-20, 2025, with a year-to-date decline of 7.89% [13][17] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, indicating their market capitalization, closing prices, and projected earnings [19]

重申持续推荐宠物和生猪板块 20250622 摘要 发改委和农业农村部出台政策，旨在通过去产能提升猪价，以活跃消费 并引导 CPI 恢复，类似于 2015-2016 年环保政策对生猪行业产能的约 束，但与此前非洲猪瘟后的保护性政策有所不同。 当前生猪板块估值较低，建议关注低成本、低负债率、出栏增速和成长 性高的企业，如牧原股份、温氏股份等一线标的，以及神农集团、巨星 农牧等二线标的。 2025 年宠物食品市场品牌格局中，国产品牌占比提升，鲜朗、麦富迪 等领先，弗列加特增速显著。外资品牌如皇家、天然百利、渴望、艾肯 拿仍占据重要地位。 宠物食品市场高端产品线快速增长，如烘焙风干粮等，其中弗列加特表 现突出。消费者更关注精准喂养功能，推动国产品牌以更高性价比竞争 外资品牌。 京东数据显示，皇家和麦富迪在猫粮和狗粮市场占据领先地位，同时网 易严选、渴望、爱肯拿、弗列加特等品牌也表现出色。中高端市场逐渐 向超高端领域发展，国产品牌竞争力增强。 Q&A 今年下半年生猪板块的基本面和政策拐点有哪些变化？ 今年下半年，生猪板块处于基本面拐点和政策拐点的阶段。从基本面来看，今 年的出栏规模增速预期以及二次育肥压栏对市场的压力 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 06 月 23 日 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3359.90 | -0.07 | | 深证成指 | 10005.03 | -0.47 | | 创业板指 | 2009.89 | -0.83 | | 科创 50 | 957.87 | -0.53 | | 北证 50 | 1347.46 | -1.34 | | 沪深 300 | 3846.64 | 0.09 | A 股市场概览 | 类别 | 总市值 | 流通市 | 市盈率 | 市净率 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | (亿元) | 值(亿元) | PE | PB | | 上证指数 | 653138 | 506006 | 12.03 | 1.25 | | 深证成指 | 220912 | 180485 | 19.58 | 2.07 | | 创业板指 | 56764 | 44868 | 26.38 | 3.68 | | 科创 50 | 33281 | 21936 | 52.00 | 4.00 | | 北证 ...