兴发集团 20251212 摘要 兴发集团 2025 年前三季度营收 237.81 亿元，同比增长 7.8%；归母净 利润 11.18 亿元，同比略增。第三季度营收和归母净利润环比分别增长 接近 24%和 42%，显示增长势头。 矿石采选业务毛利率高达 75%，贡献近一半利润，计划到"十五五"末 产能提升至 1,300 万吨。特种化学品和农药业务收入均约 40 亿元，利 润贡献显著。新能源材料板块加速扭亏，预计 2026 年全年盈利。 有机硅行业协同提价，草甘膦价格波动大但预期明年旺季补库存将带动 上涨，这两个周期性产品预计明年对公司业绩产生积极影响。肥料业务 受出口配额影响承压，但公司预计明年情况不会更差。 磷肥市场座谈会提出保供稳价措施，短期内可能抑制硫磺价格，但长期 看，受国际因素影响，硫磺价格仍可能保持高位。预计 2026 年磷肥出 口时间窗口将后移，国家加强国内供应保障。 磷酸铁产能持续扩张，现有 10 万吨产能已满负荷，明年 1 月和 7 月将 分别新增 5 万吨和 10 万吨产能。与比亚迪签订每年 8 万吨磷酸铁锂代 工协议，保障稳定收益。 麻坪磷矿已投产，预计 2026 年产能达 60%-80 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - The current production cut scale of industrial silicon is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern, and the follow - up depends on actual production cuts. The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [3][16][17]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2601 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 370 yuan/ton to 8435 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot East China oxygen - fed 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9200 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang 99 decreased by 150 yuan/ton to 8750 yuan/ton. The PS2601 contract of polysilicon increased by 3260 yuan/ton to 58770 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of polysilicon N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 53200 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Partial Start of Production Cuts, Polysilicon Capacity Integration and Acquisition Platform Launched - **Industrial silicon**: This week, the main contract of industrial silicon futures dropped significantly. Factories in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Gansu had changes in the number of furnaces. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory increased by 0.3 tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.45 tons. After updating the balance sheet, it is estimated that industrial silicon will be in tight balance in December, but there may be inventory accumulation in the first quarter of next year. The current factory inventory pressure is not large, and the basis has only strengthened by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The current futures price has reached the cash cost line of 50% of the monthly output [11]. - **Organic silicon**: This week, the organic silicon price remained stable. Some device operations changed, the overall enterprise operating rate was 69.84%, the weekly output was 4.62 tons, a decrease of 4.74% week - on - week, and the inventory was 4.44 tons, a decrease of 2.63% week - on - week. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [12]. - **Polysilicon**: This week, the main contract of polysilicon futures rose significantly. The price of N - type dense re - feeding material of leading manufacturers remained above 51 - 53 yuan/kg, and the granular material remained at 50 - 51 yuan/kg. Considering the production cuts of leading enterprises, the planned production in December is expected to be 11.2 tons. The inventory continues to accumulate. The "polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform" is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall [13]. - **Silicon wafers**: This week, the silicon wafer price stopped falling. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12R/G12 silicon wafers were 1.18/1.20 - 1.23/1.50 yuan/piece. The planned production in December is 45GW. After the production cuts, the inventory accumulation speed is expected to slow down. The price is expected to stop falling and stabilize [14]. - **Battery cells**: This week, the battery cell price continued to decline. The mainstream transaction prices of M10/G12 battery cells dropped to 0.28 yuan/watt, and the G12R model remained at 0.275 yuan/watt. The planned production in December is 47.8GW. The cost pressure is rising, and the price is expected to stabilize and rise [14]. - **Components**: This week, the component price remained basically stable. The mainstream delivery price of centralized components was 0.64 - 0.70 yuan/watt, and that of distributed projects was 0.66 - 0.70 yuan/watt. The planned production in December will drop significantly to 37GW. The price is expected to remain stable [15]. 3.3 Investment Suggestions - **Industrial silicon**: The current production cut scale is insufficient to reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. The new warehouse receipts are difficult to digest. The current futures valuation is low, and the strategy is to focus on short - selling opportunities on rallies [16]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, and the spot price is expected to be hard to fall. The strategy is to focus on long - buying opportunities on dips after the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and observe the absolute price of the 01 contract for arbitrage [17]. 3.4 Hot News Compilation - The polysilicon capacity integration and acquisition platform is officially launched, aiming to solve the "involution" - style vicious competition in the photovoltaic industry. The platform will operate in a dual - track mode of "debt - assumption acquisition + flexible use of production capacity" [18]. - The winning bid candidates for the 2.5GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement of China Three Gorges Corporation were announced, with the bid price ranging from 0.75 to 0.763 yuan/W and an average price of 0.756 yuan/W [19]. 3.5 Industrial Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - The report provides high - frequency data tracking charts for industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including price, output, inventory, and profit data [20][30][34][40][48][55].

Group 1 - The core product of the company, hexamethyldisilazane, is a key functional additive for lithium battery electrolytes [1] - The company has established long-term and stable partnerships with several leading electrolyte manufacturers in China [1] - The company's production capacity is sufficient to effectively meet market demand [1] Group 2 - The organic silicon materials and high-purity functional additives project being undertaken by Hubei Xinyaqiang is currently in progress [1]

Core Viewpoint - Xinyaqiang (603155.SH) is actively engaged in the production of hexamethyldisilazane, a key functional additive for lithium battery electrolytes, and has established long-term, stable partnerships with several leading domestic electrolyte manufacturers [1] Group 1 - The company has sufficient production capacity to effectively meet market demand for its products [1] - The project for organic silicon materials and high-purity functional additives being undertaken by Hubei Xinyaqiang is currently in progress [1]

2025.12. 10 力度,深证成指表现主要受益于科技板块和消费板块的走强,创业板指"探底回升"特征,反 映出科技成长板块的韧性。 433家 HK 2841 家下跌 涨跌停比 :12 市场呈现涨跌互现、分化加剧格局。政策驱动 (海南封关、消费复苏) 与事件驱动 (国际银价 上涨)是核心逻辑,海南板块、零售板块、贵金 属板块、算力硬件领涨,银行板块、培育钻石、 有机硅、光伏设备有所回调。 两市成交额 ○万亿元▼ 6.56% 两市成交缩量,市场交投情绪有所降温。一方面 市场可能处于短期冲高后的调整期,资金获利 了结意愿增强;另一方面市场热点分散(如海南 板块、零售概念、算力硬件等板块轮动),缺乏 持续性主线,资金难以形成集中流入,交投活 跃度下降。 餐金情绪 主力资金净流出 3 3.68 Zizz 散户资金净流入 机构谨慎调仓,资金流出方向主要集中于科技、周期及消费电子等板块,商贸零售、汽车等板块吸引主力 资金布局,科技板块内部分化,AI应用端仍有资金承接,算力基础设施遭抛售,显示资金向业绩确定性更 高的方向迁移。散户短期投机与长期观望并存,资金活跃于零售、汽车等消费板块,黄金股吸引部分资金 流入,对算力、芯片 ...

截至12月10日收盘，有机硅概念下跌0.98%，位居概念板块跌幅榜前列，板块内，东岳硅材、晨光新 材、金银河等跌幅居前，股价上涨的有15只，涨幅居前的有华盛锂电、富祥药业、皇马科技等，分别上 涨7.72%、4.16%、1.27%。 今日涨跌幅居前的概念板块 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 688303 | 大全能源 | -4.08 | 0.96 | -7987.61 | | 603260 | 合盛硅业 | -3.13 | 1.33 | -3021.96 | | 600552 | 凯盛科技 | -0.70 | 1.25 | -1951.44 | | 600458 | 时代新材 | 0.46 | 0.89 | -1826.70 | | 300328 | 宜安科技 | -0.68 | 2.40 | -1659.37 | | 002091 | 江苏国泰 | -0.90 | 1.28 | -1637.27 | | 301300 | 远翔新材 | -3.64 | 9.47 | -1520.04 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent developments in the lawsuit against ST Hongda (002211) indicate that the company is required to pay over one million yuan in investment loss compensation to three investors, following a ruling by the Shanghai High People's Court that upheld the original judgment [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - ST Hongda has received a civil judgment requiring it to pay a total of 108.3 thousand yuan to three investors: 24.38 thousand yuan to Zhang*, 6.43 thousand yuan to Ye*jie, and 77.49 thousand yuan to Zhao*qin [5]. - The company has accumulated 228 related legal cases with a total claim amount exceeding 29.16 million yuan, of which nearly 27.28 million yuan remains unpaid [4][5]. - The company is also facing joint liability for these payments, with specific percentages assigned to individuals and an accounting firm [5]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, ST Hongda reported a revenue of 328 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 47.36%, but also a net loss of 10.65 million yuan [9]. - The company has experienced continuous losses since 2023, with net losses of 29.36 million yuan in 2023 and 39.04 million yuan in 2024 [9]. - The company has been classified as a "ST" (Special Treatment) stock due to ongoing financial difficulties and has been warned by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange regarding its financial disclosures [9]. Group 3: Regulatory Issues - ST Hongda received a warning letter from the Shanghai Securities Regulatory Commission for failing to accurately disclose related party transactions totaling 72.81 million yuan [7]. - The company also inadequately accounted for asset impairment, leading to inaccuracies in its financial reporting [7]. - In addition to the warning from the regulatory body, ST Hongda has received a regulatory letter from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, urging compliance with disclosure obligations [8].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【新能源周报】 12月排产更新，商品价格承压 国贸期货贵金属与新能源研究中心 2025-12-8 分析师：白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号： F03123927 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 02 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS ） 碳酸锂（LC ） 01 PART ONE 工业硅（SI） 多晶硅（PS） 工业硅 ：供给重心向西北转移 ，硅价上方压力较大 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 影响因素 驱动 主要逻辑 供给端 偏多 （1）全国周产8.13 万吨，环比-8.69%；全国开炉238台，环比-19台。 （2）主产区：新疆地区周产4.92 万吨，环比-2.19%，开炉数环比一致。云南地区周产0.55 万吨，环比-19.77%，开炉数环比-11台。四川地区 周产0.25 万吨，环比-60.48%，开炉数环比-7台。 （3）11月产量40.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform the Market - A" for the chemical industry [4] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer market is expected to remain tight globally, with a focus on the growth potential of companies seeking overseas potassium resources [2] - The organic silicon industry is entering a new price increase cycle, supported by collaborative production cuts among manufacturers [3] Summary by Sections 1. Key Insights of the Week - The potassium fertilizer contract price for 2026 has been set at $348 per ton, indicating a slight increase from the previous year, reflecting a tight supply-demand situation [2] - The organic silicon intermediate price has risen to 13,700 yuan per ton, an increase of 2,600 yuan per ton since the implementation of the joint price support plan [3] 2. Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical sector index has shown a slight increase of 0.1% in the past week, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [22] 3. Individual Stock Performance in the Chemical Sector - Among 424 stocks in the chemical sector, 159 stocks rose while 262 fell, with notable gainers including Longgao Co. (+23.3%) and Shuangxing New Materials (+21.8%) [29] 4. Key News and Company Announcements - Jiangnan Chemical plans to acquire 100% of Xi'an Qinghua Civil Explosive Materials Co. for 645 million yuan [32]

| 邮编：061108 | | --- | | 传真：0317-5486021 | | 网址：www.sunheat.com.c | 全球有机硅网12月5日讯：12月2日，合盛硅业发布关于控股股东部分股份质押的公告。 公告称： 截至本公告日，合盛硅业股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）控股股东宁波合盛集团有限公司（以下简称"合盛集团"）直接持有公司股份486,647,073股，占 公司总股本的41.16%。本次质押后，合盛集团累计质押股份为242,409,100股，占其所持股份比例的49.81%，占公司总股本比例的20.50%。 截至本公告日，合盛集团及其一致行动人罗立国、罗燚、罗烨栋合计直接持有公司股份869,105,229股，占公司总股本的73.52%。本次质押后，合盛集团 及其一致行动人罗立国、罗燚、罗烨栋直接持有的公司股份中处于质押状态的股份累计数为433,253,200股，占其合计所持公司股份总数的49.85%，占公 司总股本的36.65%。 原文如下： | 股东 是否为控 名称 股股东 | 本次质押股数 为限 | 是否 | 是否补 充质押 | 质押起始日 质押到期日 | 质权人 | 日头) 股份比例 ...