行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 看好 ——《化工周报 25/11/17-25/11/21》 证 券 研 究 报 告 研究支持 任杰 A0230522070003 renjie@swsresearch.com 邵靖宇 A0230524080001 shaojy@swsresearch.com 周超 A0230525090001 zhouchao@swsresearch.com 李绍程 A0230525070002 lisc@swsresearch.com 赵文琪 A0230523060003 zhaowq@swsresearch.com 联系人 马昕晔 (8621)23297818× maxy@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 本期投资提示： 证券分析师 2025 年 11 月 23 日 有机硅、己内酰胺协同性确立，或 迎景气上行，反内卷加速化工拐点 来临 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 宋涛 A0230516070001 songtao@swsresearch.com 行业点评 1．行业动态 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the chemical industry [1] Core Views - The chemical industry is expected to benefit from the ongoing "anti-involution" measures, which may lead to a significant slowdown in global chemical capacity expansion. This shift is anticipated to enhance cash flow and dividend yields for companies in the sector, transforming them from cash-consuming entities to cash-generating ones [7][27] - The report highlights the potential for domestic substitutes for Japanese semiconductor materials due to rising tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, which could accelerate the domestic market's growth in this area [6] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The chemical industry has shown a relative performance increase of 16.1% over the past 12 months, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 11.6% [4] Key Price Movements - DMC (Dimethyl Carbonate) prices rose to 4400 CNY/ton, up 14.29% week-on-week, driven by strong demand from the electrolyte sector [14] - Lithium battery electrolyte prices increased to 27000 CNY/ton, up 8.00% week-on-week, although profit margins for manufacturers are under pressure due to rising raw material costs [14] - Diammonium phosphate prices in East China reached 3850 CNY/ton, up 5.48% week-on-week, amid rising production costs [14] Investment Opportunities - The report identifies four key opportunities in the chemical sector: 1. Low-cost expansion, focusing on companies like Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng [9] 2. Improved industry conditions, particularly in chromium salts and phosphate rock [10] 3. New materials with high growth potential, such as electronic chemicals and aerospace materials [11] 4. High dividend yields from state-owned enterprises in the chemical sector, including China Petroleum and China National Chemical [11] Company Tracking and Earnings Forecast - The report provides a detailed earnings forecast for key companies, indicating a positive outlook for several firms in the chemical sector, with many rated as "Buy" [28]

Group 1: Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate has hit a trading limit down, indicating a significant market correction driven by policy intervention and fundamental market dynamics [3][4]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange aim to prevent excessive speculation that could harm the real economy, suggesting that the market is being cooled rather than ending [3][4]. - The volatility in the lithium carbonate market reflects a disconnect between bullish price expectations and current market realities, highlighting the speculative nature of recent trading [4][5]. Group 2: Methanol Market Outlook - The 05 contract for methanol is highlighted as a potential opportunity due to expected improvements in the fundamental market conditions [7]. - Key factors influencing the methanol market include potential gas supply restrictions from Iran, domestic supply reductions, and a possible demand recovery from MTO (Methanol-to-Olefin) operations [8][9][10]. - The market sentiment is expected to shift towards a de-stocking phase starting mid-December, which could positively impact prices [12][20]. Group 3: Industrial Silicon Market - A recent conference involving major players in the organic silicon industry has led to a coordinated reduction in production, effective from December 1, which is expected to alleviate supply pressures on upstream industrial silicon [21][23]. - The price of DMC (Dimethylcyclosiloxane) has increased significantly, reflecting the industry's efforts to stabilize prices amid long-term losses and supply-demand imbalances [23]. - The market's quick response to the news indicates a strong sentiment towards self-regulation within the industry, which could bolster confidence moving forward [23]. Group 4: Nickel Market Dynamics - Nickel prices have been on a downward trend, breaking through key support levels, driven by persistent supply-demand imbalances and high inventory levels [29][30]. - The anticipated tightening of nickel supply has not materialized, leading to a bearish outlook as demand growth remains insufficient to absorb the excess supply [32][33]. - The market is expected to remain under pressure due to high inventories and a lack of significant demand recovery in the near term [33]. Group 5: Futures Market Overview - The futures market shows a clear divergence between bullish opportunities in certain commodities like iron ore and bearish trends in others like coal and agricultural products [46][49][55]. - The core logic driving these trends revolves around supply-demand dynamics, macroeconomic policies, and seasonal factors affecting various commodities [48][54][57]. - Investors are advised to adopt a diversified approach while closely monitoring market conditions and adjusting strategies accordingly [58].

（记者 曾健辉） 恒星科技（002132.SZ）11月21日在投资者互动平台表示，您好，公司化工板块主要从事有机硅及其相 关产品的生产和销售，不从事多晶硅及碳酸二甲酯的生产与销售。有机硅材料具有耐高低温、生物相容 性、无毒无味、耐辐射以及环境稳定性好等特点，从而使其具有广泛的应用领域。公司目前有机硅产品 主要包括DMC（二甲基聚硅氧烷）、D5、110胶、107胶、气相白炭黑等，大多产品需经再加工后用于 下游终端领域，部分深加工产品可以用作锂电池封装胶的原料，感谢您对公司的关注。 每经AI快讯，有投资者在投资者互动平台提问：贵公司现有多晶硅多少万吨？现有DMC（碳酸二甲 酯）多少万吨？以上材料是否可以用在新能源锂电池上面？是否有扩产计划？ ...

Core Viewpoint - The company focuses on the production and sales of silicone and related products, not engaging in the production or sales of polysilicon and dimethyl carbonate [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The chemical segment of the company primarily deals with silicone materials, which possess characteristics such as high and low-temperature resistance, biocompatibility, non-toxicity, radiation resistance, and environmental stability [1] - Current silicone products include DMC (dimethylpolysiloxane), D5, 110 glue, 107 glue, and fumed silica, most of which require further processing for downstream applications [1] Group 2: Product Applications - Some deep-processed products can be used as raw materials for lithium battery packaging adhesives, indicating a significant application in the growing lithium battery market [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced significant fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling over 2% and the ChiNext Index dropping more than 4%. Nearly 5,100 stocks declined, with 99 hitting the daily limit down [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed down 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index down 4.02% [1] Sector Performance - AI application concepts showed resilience, with Rongji Software achieving five consecutive limit-up days [1] - The military industry sector was active, with Jiuzhiyang hitting the limit up and companies like Jianglong Shipbuilding and Tianhai Defense also experiencing significant gains [1] - Conversely, the lithium battery supply chain faced a collective adjustment, with stocks like Shengxin Lithium Energy hitting the limit down [1] Trading Volume - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.97 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 257.47 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [2] - The Shanghai market's trading volume was 824.93 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen market's was 1.14 trillion yuan [2] Notable Stocks - Zhongji Xuchuang had the highest trading volume at 19.48 billion yuan, followed by Xinyi Sheng, Ningde Times, Sunshine Power, and Industrial Fulian with trading volumes of 13.41 billion yuan, 11.85 billion yuan, 11.76 billion yuan, and 11.71 billion yuan respectively [2]

Market Overview - US and Asia-Pacific stock markets experienced a collective decline, with A-shares also falling significantly. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 2.45% to 3834 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 4.02% [1][2]. Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3834.89, down by 96.16 points (2.45%) - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12538.07, down by 442.75 points (3.41%) - The ChiNext Index closed at 2920.08, down by 122.26 points (4.02%) - The North China 50 Index fell by 4.71% to 1377.39 [2]. Sector Performance - Lithium mining and battery sectors faced significant declines, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit down, including Ganfeng Lithium, Jiangte Motor, and Tianqi Lithium [3]. - The organic silicon sector also saw a downturn, with stocks like Yuanxiang New Materials dropping over 10% [3]. - The titanium dioxide sector declined, with Guocheng Mining hitting the daily limit down [3]. - Battery stocks generally fell, with companies like Xingyuan Materials dropping over 10% [3]. - Fertilizer and phosphorus chemical sectors also experienced declines, with Chengxing Shares hitting the daily limit down [3]. - The photovoltaic equipment sector weakened, with Jincheng Shares hitting the daily limit down [3]. - Conversely, the shipbuilding sector rose against the trend, with Jianglong Shipbuilding increasing by over 14% [3]. - The AI application sector saw slight gains, with Kimi and Sora concepts leading the rise, and Yidian Tianxia hitting the daily limit up [3].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 每经AI快讯，11月21日，市场全天震荡调整，沪指跌超2%，创业板指跌超4%。沪深两市成交额1.97万 亿元，较上一个交易日放量2575亿元。盘面上个股普跌，全市场近5100只个股下跌。从板块来看，AI 应用概念逆势走强，榕基软件5连板。军工板块表现活跃，久之洋涨停，江龙船艇、天海防务逆势大 涨。下跌方面，锂电池产业链集体调整，盛新锂能等多股跌停。有机硅概念快速下跌，晨光新材跌停。 存储芯片概念持续走弱，德明利、时空科技跌停。板块方面，中船系、AI应用等板块涨幅居前，电 池、硅能源、锂矿等板块跌幅居前。截至收盘，沪指跌2.41%，深成指跌3.41%，创业板指跌4.02%。 ...

截至收盘，沪指跌2.45%，深成指跌3.41%，创业板指跌4.02%。 盘面上个股普跌，全市场近5100只个股下跌，99只个股跌停。从板块来看，AI应用概念逆势走强，榕基软件5连板。军工板块表现活跃，久之洋20cm 触及涨停，江龙船艇、天海防务逆势大涨。下跌方面，锂电池产业链集体调整，盛新锂能等多股跌停。有机硅概念快速下跌，晨光新材跌停。存储 芯片概念持续走弱，德明利、时空科技跌停。 板块方面，中船系、AI应用等板块涨幅居前，电池、硅能源、锂矿等板块跌幅居前。 今日A股市场全天震荡调整，沪指跌超2%，创业板指跌超4%。沪深两市成交额1.97万亿，较上一个交易日放量2575亿。 准确 快速 权威 专业 下载财联社APP获取更多资讯 7x24h电报 头条新闻 VIP资讯 实时盯盘 ...

人民财讯11月21日电，今日三大指数集体低开，全天延续震荡调整走势。沪指跌超2%失守3900点。截 至收盘，沪指跌2.45%，深证成指跌3.41%，创业板指跌4.02%。盘面上，种业概念逆市走强，荃银高科 涨超16%。水产品概念反复活跃，中水渔业、獐子岛涨停。Sora概念异动拉升，视觉中国、易点天下涨 停。锂矿、盐湖提锂概念大幅走弱，大中矿业、西藏矿业、赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、盛新锂能、金圆股份 等多股跌停。有机硅概念下挫，晨光新材跌停。此外，互联网、传媒娱乐等板块涨幅居前；有色、化 工、半导体、电气设备等板块跌幅居前。沪深北三市成交额1.98万亿元，超5100只股下跌。 转自：证券时报 ...