Core Viewpoint - The short-term trend of domestic oils is expected to diverge, with soybean oil anticipated to remain strong due to various factors including weather conditions and international policies [1] Group 1: Weather Impact on Soybean Growth - Weather forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains over the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth [1] Group 2: International Policies and Demand - The U.S. biodiesel policy is expected to positively influence U.S. soybean oil demand, while Brazil has raised its biodiesel blending ratio and Indonesia's B40 implementation is progressing well, both of which are favorable for domestic oils [1] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - MPOA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production is projected to increase by 9.01% for July, with an estimated inventory of 2.25 million tons, a 10.8% increase from June, and production of 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June [1] - Export volume for palm oil is expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June, but high-frequency data suggests an increase in production and a decrease in exports, raising concerns about potential inventory accumulation [1] Group 4: Domestic Oil Inventory and Trade Relations - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly decreased but remains at historically high levels, and improved trade relations between China and Australia may lead to increased canola seed imports from Australia [1] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, due to the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil and favorable international biodiesel policies, the domestic oil market is likely to experience a divergence in short-term trends, with soybean oil expected to perform strongly while canola and palm oil may experience fluctuations [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. After the release of MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%, keeping the supply side of palm oil loose. Coupled with favorable weather in US soybean - growing areas, the soybean supply is also optimistic. Overall, the prices of oils continued to oscillate [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,970.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 94 yuan or 1.04% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,406.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 62.00 yuan or 0.74%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,562.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53.00 yuan or 0.55% [1] Spot - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,980.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan or 0.11%, with a spot basis of P09 + 10.00, an increase of 104.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,530.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 90.00 yuan/ton or 1.07%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 124.00, an increase of 28.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,670.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60.00 yuan or 0.62%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 108.00, a decrease of 7.00 yuan [1] Recent Market Information - According to SPPOMA data, from August 1 - 5, 2025, the yield per unit of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 19.32% compared to the same period last month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.39%, and the production decreased by 17.27%. According to MPOA data, the estimated palm oil production in Malaysia from July 1 - 31 increased by 9.01%, with a 17.18% increase in the Malay Peninsula, a 3.13% decrease in Sabah, a 0.69% decrease in Sarawak, and a 2.58% decrease in Borneo. The estimated total palm oil production in Malaysia in July was 1.84 million tons [2] - As of the week ending August 3, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with market expectations, down from 70% the previous week and up from 68% the same period last year. The soybean flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% the previous week, the same as last year's 85% and slightly lower than the five - year average of 86% [2] - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1,153 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1,141 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F quotation of imported rapeseed oil: Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1,035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1,015 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (October shipment) was 568 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseeds (December shipment) was 558 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 445 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 439 US dollars/ton, down 1 US dollar/ton; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 479 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. The import soybean premium quotes: Mexico Gulf (September shipment) was 217 cents/bushel, down 3 cents/bushel; US West Coast (September shipment) was 190 cents/bushel, down 3 cents/bushel; Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 315 cents/bushel, up 10 cents/bushel [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oils and Fats**: Oscillating with a slight upward bias [8] - **Protein Meal**: Oscillating [9] - **Corn/Starch**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [10] - **Hogs**: Oscillating [11] - **Natural Rubber**: Oscillating [13] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Oscillating [15] - **Cotton**: Oscillating [16] - **Sugar**: Long - term: oscillating with a downward bias; Short - term: maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [17] - **Pulp**: Oscillating [18] - **Logs**: Oscillating with a slight downward bias [19] 2. Core Views of the Report The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It provides insights into their market trends, supply - demand relationships, and price outlooks. For example, the hog market shows a pattern of "weak present + strong future" due to policy - induced production - cut expectations; the oils and fats market is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward bias considering overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic export expectations [11][8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **Industry Information**: MPOA data shows a 9.01% month - on - month increase in estimated Malaysian palm oil production in July. The overall estimated production is 1.84 million tons. ITS and AmSpec data indicate a decline in July's Malaysian palm oil exports [8]. - **Logic**: Due to the expected high yield of US soybeans and concerns about demand, US soybeans fell on Tuesday. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend, with soybean oil being stronger. The global and domestic supply - demand situation of different oils varies, with soybean oil having inventory increases and export expectations, palm oil facing inventory pressure, and rapeseed oil having high inventory [8]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, palm oil and soybean oil are likely to be stronger, influenced by the expected increase in overseas bio - diesel demand and domestic soybean oil export expectations [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **Industry Information**: On August 6, 2025, international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different trends. The average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased [9]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the good growth of US soybeans and the expected high yield, along with changes in trade relations and CFTC net short positions, affect the market. Domestically, in the short - term, due to the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. In the long - term, there is a potential supply gap in the fourth quarter [9]. - **Outlook**: In the next two weeks, the inventory of soybean meal may reach a peak. Spot and basis prices may oscillate at a low level. The far - month contracts are expected to strengthen [9]. 3.1.3 Corn/Starch - **Industry Information**: The average domestic corn price and the closing price of the main contract decreased [10]. - **Logic**: On the supply side, there are differences in the judgment of channel inventory, and the auction transaction rate of imported corn is low. On the demand side, downstream acceptance of high - priced grains is low. Policy - wise, the transaction rate and premium of imported corn are decreasing [10]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, there is uncertainty in the old - crop inventory reduction. After the new - crop is listed, there is a downward pressure on prices [10]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the spot price of hogs in Henan decreased slightly, while the futures closing price increased [11]. - **Logic**: The proposed meeting by the China Animal Husbandry Association to discuss sow production cuts triggered market sentiment. In the short - term, large - scale farms are actively reducing weight and inventory, but the inventory of secondary - fattening by smallholders is high. In the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, policies may lead to a reduction in production capacity [11]. - **Outlook**: The hog market shows large fluctuations. The spot and near - month contracts are under pressure, while the far - month contracts are influenced by production - cut expectations [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of various rubber products in Qingdao Free Trade Zone remained stable, and the prices of raw materials in the Thai market increased slightly [13]. - **Logic**: The macro - environment is favorable, and there is some speculative sentiment in the market. The supply is limited due to the rainy season, and the demand is relatively stable in the short - term [13]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, it follows the overall commodity sentiment, and attention should be paid to capital sentiment [13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **Industry Information**: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different trends [15]. - **Logic**: The BR futures rose slightly, driven by natural rubber and the macro - environment, and supported by the tight supply of butadiene. However, the fundamental driving force is not clear [15]. - **Outlook**: It will generally maintain an oscillating range, and attention should be paid to device changes [15]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **Industry Information**: As of August 6, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton increased slightly [16]. - **Logic**: In the 2025/2026 season, the global cotton supply is expected to be abundant. The downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is at a low level compared to the same period. The price is oscillating within a range [16]. - **Outlook**: It will oscillate within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton, and attention should be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread [16]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **Industry Information**: On August 6, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar decreased [17]. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the new season is expected to have a loose supply. In the short - term, the supply pressure will increase due to the peak production and export season in Brazil and the concentrated import in China [17]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate with a downward bias. In the short - term, it is recommended to short on rebounds [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **Industry Information**: The prices of various pulp products in Shandong remained stable or decreased slightly [18]. - **Logic**: The futures price fluctuated at a low level. The supply of broad - leaf pulp is abundant, the demand is weak, and the overseas market is also weak. However, the recent increase in domestic broad - leaf pulp prices is worth noting [18]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate widely, and attention can be paid to the low - absorption long - matching opportunity when the main contract falls to 5,200 - 5,250 yuan/ton [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **Industry Information**: After the first - month delivery of logs, the short - term fundamentals changed little [19]. - **Logic**: The new foreign quotation has increased, but the domestic market is in the off - season. There are both positive and negative factors in the market, and the supply pressure is gradually easing [19]. - **Outlook**: The market is intertwined with multiple factors. It is recommended to operate within the range of 800 - 850, and the industrial side can participate in hedging according to its own costs [19]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report also mentions data monitoring for various products such as oils and fats, corn/starch, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but specific data details are not provided in the text [22][53][72].

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【国内豆油出口增加，远期供需及内外价差情况受关注】2025年1 - 6月，国内豆油出口累计13.8万吨， 较去年同期增加9.8万吨，累计同比增幅240.95%。出口主要增量流向中国香港、韩国、马来西亚、朝鲜 和印度。在美国生物柴油政策支撑下，美豆油走强拉动国际豆油价格上升，而国内豆油供应宽松，出口 窗口因此打开，企业出口贸易机会增多。 短期来看，国内大豆供应宽松，豆油库存处于同期高水平。 截至8月1日，压榨厂豆油库存为111.7万吨，去年同期为112.6万吨，国内豆油最便宜可交割价基差为 - 60元/吨。7月下旬以来，豆油基差止跌，从低点震荡小幅反弹。 远期方面，由于中美关税矛盾未解 决，四季度中国大豆采购存在不确定性。若2025年四季度不采购美国大豆，需警惕2026年2 - 3月大豆供 应紧张。且四季度是豆油需求旺季，要谨慎中期市场情绪对预期的发酵。 美盘豆油中期预计震荡中性 或偏强。今年美国在生物质柴油市场公布新政策45Z和RVO，利于美豆油长期需求格局。虽小型炼厂豁 免问题未解决，会影响价格波动性和阶段需求，但长期需求受产能扩张和政策支持，美 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Internationally, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans decreased by 1% from the previous week. Driven by short-covering, CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly but remained weak overall. The estimated inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July reached a two-year high, but the market expected the export data at the beginning of August to improve, leading to a resonant rebound of Malaysian palm oil futures and domestic oils. Domestically, the soybean oil inventory continued to rise, but the increase in domestic exports alleviated the inventory pressure to some extent. Recently, the South American soybean premium has been rising continuously, combined with trade risk premiums, soybean oil continued to strengthen. The palm oil inventory changed from increasing to decreasing, continuing the pattern of weak supply and demand. Driven by the rebound of import costs, Dalian palm oil rebounded strongly. Regarding rapeseed oil, the domestic inventory continued to decline, and the uncertainty of China-Canada trade policies supported the rapeseed oil price, with rapeseed oil fluctuating strongly [6]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - As of the week ending August 1st, the commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.36 million tons, basically flat week-on-week, up 110,000 tons month-on-month, and up 200,000 tons year-on-year. Among them, the soybean oil inventory was 1.13 million tons, up 30,000 tons week-on-week, up 110,000 tons month-on-month, and flat year-on-year; the rapeseed oil inventory was 660,000 tons, basically flat week-on-week, down 40,000 tons month-on-month, and up 230,000 tons year-on-year; the palm oil inventory was 570,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week-on-week, up 40,000 tons month-on-month, and down 30,000 tons year-on-year [2]. - As of the week ending August 3rd, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans was 69%, in line with the market expectation of 69%, down from 70% in the previous week and up from 68% in the same period last year. The soybean flowering rate was 85%, up from 76% in the previous week, the same as 85% in the same period last year, and the five-year average was 86% [2]. - Brokerage StoneX predicted that Brazil's soybean production in the 2025/26 season would be 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous season due to increased planting area and crop yield. StoneX also expected the US soybean production in 2025 to reach 4.425 billion bushels, with an average yield of 53.6 bushels per acre [2]. - Reuters survey showed that Malaysia's palm oil inventory in July 2025 was expected to be 2.25 million tons, an increase of 10.8% from June; the production was expected to be 1.83 million tons, an increase of 8% from June; the export volume was expected to be 1.3 million tons, an increase of 3.2% from June [3]. - Brazil officially implemented a new biofuel blending standard on August 1st, increasing the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% (E30) and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% (B15) [4]. 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - Internationally, the good-to-excellent rate of US soybeans decreased, and CBOT soybean futures rebounded slightly but remained weak. The estimated high inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of July was expected to improve in export data at the beginning of August, leading to a resonant rebound with domestic oils. Domestically, soybean oil inventory rose but was alleviated by exports, and soybean oil strengthened due to rising premiums and risk premiums. Palm oil inventory decreased, and Dalian palm oil rebounded strongly due to rising import costs. Rapeseed oil inventory declined, and the uncertainty of China-Canada trade policies supported the price, with rapeseed oil fluctuating strongly [6]

豆油期货行情回顾： 8月4日芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货行情 北京时间8月5日，芝加哥商业交易所(CBOT)豆油期货价格震荡下行，今日开盘报53.99美分/磅，现报每 吨53.95美分/磅，跌幅0.13%，盘中最高触及54.04美分/磅，最低下探53.78美分/磅。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美豆油 53.89 54.35 53.52 53.95 0.02% 【豆油市场消息速递】 8月4日，阿根廷豆油(8月船期)C&F价格1155美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平；阿根廷豆油(10月船 期)C&F价格1129美元/吨，与上个交易日相比持平。 8月4日：全国一级豆油成交量31500吨，环比上个交易日减少27.59%。 截至2025年8月1日，全国重点地区豆油商业库存111.74万吨，环比上周增加2.93万吨，增幅2.69%。同 比减少0.86万吨，跌幅0.76%。 ...

油脂周报：油脂有所回落，豆油价格坚挺 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 投资咨询证号：Z0014425 目录 第一部分 周度核心要点分析及策略推荐 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 1 内容摘要 n 近期核心事件&行情回顾： 1. SPPOMA预计7月马棕产量环比上月同期增加7.07%，ITS数据显示7月马棕出口减少6.7%至129万吨。 2. 加拿大谷物委员会发布的数据显示，截至07月27日当周，加拿大油菜籽出口量较前周减少72.78%至5.51万吨，之 前一周为20.24万吨。2024年8月1日至2025年07月27日，加拿大油菜籽出口量为949.22万吨，较上一年度同期的 681.73万吨增加39.24%。截至07月27日，加拿大油菜籽商业库存为120.14万吨。 3.本周油脂震荡回落，其中棕榈油回落较多，豆油受国内出口影响价格较为坚挺。整体上，7月马棕或继续增产累 库，但印尼库存持续偏低，其价格保持坚挺。短期盘面或受情绪有所转弱而出现回调，但回调幅度预计有限，方向 上维持逢低做多思路；8月将进入美豆结荚的关键生长期，还需重点关注8月的天气情况。国内大豆压榨较高，豆油 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 国贸期货 农产品研究中心 2025-8-4 陈凡生 从业资格号：F03117830 投资咨询号：Z0022681 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：等待宏观企稳，走势或有分化 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 棕榈油观望； 豆油偏空； 菜油偏多 | （1）马来棕榈油7月高频数据显现增产但印尼5月减产去库对价格有支撑；（2）豆油供应充足；（3）菜籽库存历史低位，短期压榨偏少。 | | | | 需求 | 棕榈油菜油 偏多 | （1）印尼棕榈油出口大增、马来出口减弱；（2）美生柴配额提振国际油脂需求，主要利多棕榈油、菜油。 | | | | 库存 | 菜油棕榈油 中性偏空； 豆油偏空 | （1）国内棕榈油逐渐累库；（2）豆油库存被动累库；（3）国内菜油库存高位去化。 | | | | 宏观及政策 | 棕榈油偏多； 菜油中性偏 空。 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high. The Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports increased biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by China has led to a rally in the rapeseed sector. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of China-US and China-Canada relations has an impact on the market at the macro level [3][5][6]. - The main logical focus is on the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The current main risk is the El Niño weather [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with the production cut falling short of expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3][4][5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 126, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 880,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8000 - 8400 [3]. Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9000, with a basis of 90, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [5]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the port inventory of palm oil was 380,000 tons, down 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [5]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [5]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased [5]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8500 - 8900 [5]. Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report shows neutral results, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9600, with a basis of 76, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: On July 4, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 650,000 tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [6]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [6]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9300 - 9700 [6]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. It is the palm oil production cut season [7]. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high level historically, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [7]. Supply and Demand Aspects - **Supply**: Includes aspects such as imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, oil mill soybean crushing, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and total domestic inventory of oils and fats [8][10][12][14][19][22][24][26]. - **Demand**: The apparent consumption of soybean oil is mentioned [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Fundamentally, the draft of the US biodiesel policy exceeded expectations, the palm oil production potential in Southeast Asia was insufficient, the vegetable oil inventories in India and Southeast Asian producing areas were low, and the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy supported the central level of oils and fats. Regarding palm oil, if demand - side countries maintained normal imports and palm oil production in producing areas remained at a neutral level from July to September, the inventory in producing areas might remain stable, supporting the producer prices to fluctuate strongly. There might be an upward expectation in the fourth quarter due to Indonesia's B50 policy. However, the current valuation was relatively high, and the upward space was restricted by factors such as the annual - level oil and fat production increase expectation, relatively high near - term palm oil production in producing areas, the undetermined RVO rules, macro factors, and demand adjustments by major importing countries. Therefore, it should be viewed as fluctuating [11][12][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Evaluation and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Overview** - Palm oil maintained a volatile trend this week. The net long positions of foreign capital, which accounted for the main positions of the three major oils and fats, reached a record high. Palm oil reduced long positions this week, while soybean oil and rapeseed oil slightly increased long positions. The estimated export of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 31st decreased by 6.71% - 9.58% month - on - month. The SPPOMA data showed that the production of Malaysian palm oil from July 1st to 25th, 2025, increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The lower - than - expected export of Malaysian palm oil implied a recovery in Indonesia's production or weak demand in consumer areas. The narrative of palm oil production increase and weak demand still suppressed the market. Although there were medium - term positive factors such as the expectation of Indonesia's B50 policy and the limited production increase potential of Southeast Asian palm oil, the short - term data deviation also brought correction pressure to the market. The price of foreign - market rapeseed entered a volatile phase after falling from a high level. China and Australia were in contact regarding rapeseed purchases, which suppressed the high valuation of rapeseed oil. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil widened, mainly because some domestic soybean oil was exported, alleviating the domestic supply pressure of soybean oil [11]. - In the international oils and fats market, the USDA July monthly report estimated that the industrial demand for soybean oil in the US would increase by about 1.5 million tons in the 2025/2026 fiscal year, which would be supplemented by a decrease in soybean oil exports and an increase in crushing output. The estimated import of rapeseed oil only increased by 200,000 tons year - on - year. The shipping volume of Canadian rapeseed farmers decreased both year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export volume remained relatively high. The commercial inventory was recently stable at a neutral - to - high level in previous years. In addition, the contact between China and Australia regarding rapeseed trade depressed the rapeseed price, and the price of foreign - market rapeseed fluctuated weakly this week. The AAFC significantly increased the production of old - crop rapeseed based on large - scale export data, but the new - crop rapeseed faced a production reduction situation, which supported the rapeseed price. India might have started a replenishment process, which would support the subsequent export demand for palm oil [11]. - In the domestic oils and fats market, the trading volume of soybean oil was good this week, while that of palm oil was weak. The spot basis was at a relatively low level. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats was about 400,000 tons higher than last year, indicating a relatively sufficient supply. Among them, the rapeseed oil inventory was 300,000 tons higher than last year, the palm oil inventory was about 100,000 tons higher than last year, and the soybean oil inventory was the same as last year. In the next two months, the soybean crushing volume would increase with the arrival of soybeans. After the increase in palm oil production, the willingness to export would also increase. Rapeseed oil would maintain a slow de - stocking trend, but the high price difference and weak consumption of rapeseed oil led to a slow de - stocking process. The total domestic inventory of oils and fats would temporarily remain at a relatively high level [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion** - For the unilateral strategy, it is recommended to view the market as fluctuating. The core driving logic is the same as the core viewpoints mentioned above [13]. - No specific content was provided for the arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market The report presents multiple charts related to the basis of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures contracts, including the basis of Malaysian palm oil FOB - futures, the seasonal basis of Malaysian palm oil futures, and the basis of domestic palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts. These charts help to analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][21][23]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Production and Export of Palm Oil** - The report shows the monthly production and export volume charts of Malaysian palm oil and the monthly production and export volume charts of Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil from 2021 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the supply situation of palm oil in these two major producing areas [28][29]. - It also presents the weekly arrival volume and port inventory charts of soybeans, as well as the monthly import volume charts of rapeseed and rapeseed oil, which are helpful for understanding the supply situation of raw materials for soybean oil and rapeseed oil production [30][31]. - **Weather in Palm - Producing Areas** - The report includes charts of weighted precipitation in Indonesian and Malaysian palm - producing areas, as well as the NINO 3.4 index and the impact of La Nina on global climate, which can be used to analyze the potential impact of weather on palm oil production [33][35]. 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory of Domestic Oils and Fats** - The report shows the total inventory chart of domestic three major oils and fats and the inventory chart of Indian imported vegetable oils, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in the domestic and Indian markets [41]. - **Profit and Inventory of Different Oils** - For palm oil, it presents the near - month import profit chart and the commercial inventory chart [44]. - For soybean oil, it shows the spot crushing profit chart of imported soybeans in Guangdong and the inventory chart of major soybean oil mills [46]. - For rapeseed oil, it shows the average spot crushing profit chart of rapeseed along the coast and the commercial inventory chart of rapeseed oil in East China [47]. - **Inventory of Palm Oil in Producing Areas** - The report shows the inventory charts of Malaysian palm oil and Indonesian palm oil + palm kernel oil, which can be used to analyze the inventory situation in palm - oil - producing areas [49]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Cost of Palm Oil** - The report shows the reference price chart of Malaysian palm fresh fruit bunches and the import cost price chart of Malaysian palm oil, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of palm oil [51][53]. - **Cost of Rapeseed Oil and Rapeseed** - It presents the CNF import price chart of rapeseed oil (nearest - month shipping date) and the import cost price chart of Chinese imported rapeseed, which can be used to analyze the cost situation of rapeseed oil and rapeseed [55]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Oils and Fats Trading Volume** - The report shows the cumulative trading volume charts of palm oil and soybean oil in different crop years, which can be used to analyze the trading volume situation of these two oils and fats [58]. - **Profit of Biodiesel** - It presents the POGO spread chart (Malaysian palm oil - Singapore low - sulfur diesel) and the BOHO spread chart (soybean oil - heating oil), which can be used to analyze the profit situation of biodiesel production using palm oil and soybean oil [60].