Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic and international oil markets have been under pressure recently, maintaining a weak and volatile pattern. The core drivers are the supply pressure and weak demand in the international market. South American soybean production areas have favorable weather, and expectations of a bumper harvest continue to suppress market sentiment. The decline in international crude oil prices has weakened the support for the biodiesel theme, and post - holiday terminal procurement has slowed down, leading to light market trading. Against this backdrop, palm oil has become the leading decliner due to inventory pressure, while soybean oil has shown relative resistance as some domestic oil mills have shut down, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply [2]. - Overall, the oil sector lacks effective positive factors. Under the dual influence of macro and fundamental factors, its center of gravity is shifting downward. The reference price ranges for the main contracts are 7700 - 8000 for soybean oil, 8300 - 8600 for palm oil, and 8900 - 9200 for rapeseed oil [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last month, the domestic oil futures market showed a weak and volatile pattern. Affected by factors such as seasonal production increases in international palm oil production areas, ample supply of related vegetable oils, and the decline in crude oil prices, market sentiment was bearish. Although there was a temporary restocking demand on the domestic consumption side, which supported prices to some extent, there was insufficient upward momentum. The main contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all declined, with palm oil showing a relatively significant decline due to external market influence. The oil sector continued its adjustment trend under the loose supply - demand fundamentals [5]. 3.2 Palm Oil - **Production and Inventory**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production was 1.829 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.3%, higher than the market's expected seasonal flat or slight increase. The high inventory level will continue to limit the rebound space of palm oil prices. As of the end of November, Malaysia's palm oil inventory reached 2.51 million tons, a significant month - on - month increase of about 10.8% [10]. - **Export**: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 1.44 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 9.3%. Weak exports were mainly due to sufficient inventories and low procurement willingness in major importing countries and intensified competition from Indonesia. However, in December, according to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased by 28.4% month - on - month [14][18]. - **Import and Arrival**: As of December 31, there were a total of 10 palm oil purchase vessels, with 6 vessels for January shipment and the rest for December - January. There were no new cancelations. The arrival volume at the end of the year was sufficient. Import profits were mostly in deep inversion, which suppressed new procurement by traders [21]. - **Domestic Inventory and Trading**: As of the end of December 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 734,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 34,100 tons and a year - on - year increase of 205,700 tons. The total trading volume of palm oil in key domestic oil mills was 13,000 tons, with an average daily trading volume of 590.9 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [25]. - **Basis and Spread**: As of December 31, the palm oil futures price first fell and then rose, and the basis in each region declined significantly. The soybean - palm oil futures spread decreased by 89.01% month - on - month, and the spot spread decreased by 79.78% month - on - month [29]. 3.3 Soybean Oil - **International Soybean Situation**: The US government shutdown caused the USDA to miss the October report. The November report after the shutdown was cautious in adjusting the yield forecast, and the December report did not adjust the balance sheet as usual. The USDA's January production - determining report will be crucial for the 2025/2026 US soybean production and supply - demand situation. Last month, US soybean export sales were generally lackluster, and the market's focus has shifted to the planting intentions and weather of the new US soybean season [32][36]. - **Import Premium**: Last month, the international soybean premium quotes showed a divergent trend. The premium of US soybeans (US Gulf) was stable and slightly stronger, while that of South American soybeans (Brazil/Argentina) was generally under pressure [39]. - **Domestic Inventory and Production**: As of December 26, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.089 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34,500 tons. Some oil mills shut down due to a shortage of soybeans, causing the soybean oil inventory to gradually decline [43]. - **Spot Basis and Trading**: In December, the domestic soybean oil spot price was in a weak and volatile trend. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was mainly for rigid needs. The spot basis was stable and slightly weak. The total trading volume of soybean oil in key domestic oil mills increased compared to the previous month [47]. 3.4 Rapeseed Oil - **Trade Situation**: China is actively diversifying its sources of rapeseed imports. The trade between China and Canada regarding rapeseed is in a state of uncertainty, with potential trade - related risks [51]. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of December, the total rapeseed oil inventory in major regions was 285,000 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month. The basis was strong, and the market is expected to show a wide - range volatile pattern in the short term [55].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The domestic油脂 market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver lies in the overseas market. The market will maintain a wide - range volatile trend, waiting for the impact of US energy policies, Malaysia's inventory reduction progress, and new developments in Indonesia's B50 plan. Due to the lack of trend - driving factors, the short - term trading should be treated within a range. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia in 2026 is earlier, the pressure on palm oil producing areas will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We should wait to see if it can start an upward trend after inventory reduction [1][2] Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The core contradictions in the油脂 market mainly include the game between palm oil inventory pressure and demand growth in producing areas. Malaysia's palm oil inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down inventory reduction. Indonesia's B50 plan has no new news and is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which supports long - term palm oil demand but has limited short - term benefits [1] - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear, and the allocation ratio is uncertain, providing limited support to the market [1] - The result of the China - Canada negotiation is unclear. The global new - season rapeseed harvest is abundant, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply tension. If China - Canada relations improve, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1] - The overall supply of the three major domestic油脂 remains sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of inventory reduction with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [1] 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Not provided in detail in the report 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term range - bound oscillation, and there is still upward space for palm oil in the medium term. The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8800], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [18] - Technical analysis: Unilateral trading oscillates within the range. For arbitrage, we can observe the weakening trend of the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil. The current basis should be treated with a short - term weak - oscillation mindset. There is no month - spread strategy for now. The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, and rapeseed oil and soybean oil should be treated as weakening [18] - A series of historical strategy recommendations are listed, including stop - loss exits, profit - taking exits, and waiting for appropriate opportunities [18] 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil: The latest prices of palm oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 8342 yuan/ton, 8488 yuan/ton, and 8376 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding declines of 1.42%, 1.12%, and 1.02%. The price of BMD palm oil main contract is 4000 ringgit/ton, down 0.35% [20] - Soybean oil: The latest prices of soybean oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 8140 yuan/ton, 7912 yuan/ton, and 7774 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding increases of 0.99%, 0.8%, and 0.56%. The price of CBOT soybean oil main contract is 49.85 cents/pound, up 1.07% [20] - Rapeseed oil: The latest prices of rapeseed oil 01, 05, and 09 contracts are 9736 yuan/ton, 9044 yuan/ton, and 9009 yuan/ton respectively, with no change. The price of ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is 613.6 Canadian dollars/ton, up 2.8 [20] Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: As of January 2, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic油脂 decreased slightly to 2110000 tons, with a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 20000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 250000 tons, and an increase of 190000 tons compared with the average of the past three years. As of December 26, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1089000 tons, a decrease of 34500 tons from the previous week, a decline of 3.07%. From January 1 - 5, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil export volume was 239675 tons, a 31.12% increase compared with the same period last month [22][23] - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean export volume in 2025 reached a record high of 108.68 million tons, a 11.7% increase compared with 2024. Its soybean meal and corn export volumes also reached record levels. In December 2025, the domestic oil - mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and the import volume of soybeans in January is expected to decrease, with the crushing volume expected to drop slightly to about 8 million tons. India's palm oil import volume in December decreased by 20% month - on - month to 507000 metric tons, the lowest level since April 2025. Due to the increase in soybean oil and sunflower oil imports, India's total edible oil import volume increased by 19% month - on - month, reaching a three - month high of 1.37 million tons. The market generally expects Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December 2025 to continue to accumulate, with Reuters expecting 2.97 million tons (a 4.7% month - on - month increase) and Bloomberg expecting 2.99 million tons (a 5.3% month - on - month increase) [24][27] - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent油脂 transactions are average, with relatively high soybean oil transactions and no transactions for rapeseed oil for now [25] 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Not provided in detail in the report Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The油脂 market continued its wide - range volatile trend this week. Due to unresolved pressure in producing areas and unclear US biodiesel policies, the global油脂 market demand expansion is limited. We should pay attention to US bio - energy policy information and inventory reduction progress in producing areas [30] - Capital trends: The positions of key profitable seats for palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious recently. Foreign investors have insufficient confidence in the油脂 sector. The net short positions of foreign investors and retail investors in palm oil have increased slightly, with prices continuously falling and positions decreasing significantly, but the trend degree has slightly turned positive, and volatility is low, indicating that the market may enter a consolidation stage. Soybean oil prices have stabilized recently after a continuous decline, with positions decreasing, a weak trend but a slowdown in the decline. Foreign investors have increased short positions, and retail investors have slightly increased long positions, and the market maintains a volatile consolidation. Rapeseed oil prices have stabilized at a low level after a continuous decline, with positions dropping to the lowest in two years, continuous capital outflows, and the basis approaching the spot price, indicating that the market may be approaching the bottom area [30] - Basis structure: The main - contract basis of油脂 continued to bottom - out and consolidate this week. Due to high domestic油脂 inventory and average downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [32] - Month - spread structure: The油脂 market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of palm oil has become shallower. Weak reality continues to suppress the disk. Due to the lack of information on Indonesia's B50, market sentiment is weak. High soybean oil supply still suppresses prices, and the supply tension of rapeseed oil has gradually improved [32] - Spread structure: Due to the lack of further information this week, cross - variety spreads mainly oscillated. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts inventory reduction, its support has improved. With the continuous supply of rapeseed oil, the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil is still expected to weaken [53] - **Overseas Market**: The overseas market oscillated this week. The inventory pressure of Malaysian palm oil has not been relieved, and there is insufficient weather disturbance. Indonesia's B50 lacks new progress, and the quotes in producing areas continue to consolidate. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and US soybeans lack positive driving factors and oscillate weakly. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and US soybean oil continues to oscillate. The cost - effectiveness of international palm oil has not been reflected for now. There is no expectation of a relaxation in China - Canada relations, but the arrival of Australian rapeseed has eased some supply tension. Currently, the positions of CBOT soybean oil managed funds have decreased slightly, with a pessimistic sentiment and insufficient market confidence in a rise. The net positions of producers/ traders/ processors/ users have rebounded, and confidence has increased [56] Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream - and - Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - This week, the POGO spread decreased slightly. Due to the lack of price support for palm oil, the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels has declined. The BOHO spread continued to weaken. Due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel has remained at the lowest level in recent years due to the sufficient global soybean supply [64] 4.2 Import - and - Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the prices in producing areas have been consolidating at a low level. The import profit has changed slightly, but the profit range is not large. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the downstream acceptance is average, and the profit still remains negative [67] Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. We should pay attention to the production changes in producing areas. Currently, La Niña climate has appeared in producing areas, but the rainfall is limited, and the impact on the main producing areas is temporarily small, and the subsequent impact remains to be observed. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased month - on - month in December, but export boost was insufficient, and the inventory inflection point is difficult to appear for the time being. It is expected that the inventory inflection point may be seen as early as January [69] 5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm oil: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. Producing areas have entered the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell goods during inventory reduction is limited. In addition, palm oil is easy to solidify in winter, and demand is weak. The import profit in China is inverted, and it is expected that the number of orders will be difficult to increase. We should wait for the rebound after the inventory pressure in producing areas is relieved [71] - Soybean oil: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans reaches the seasonal low point, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is relatively large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. We should pay attention to whether there will be short - term supply shortages due to the arrival rhythm [71] - Rapeseed oil: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving successively, the quantity is limited, and inventory reduction will continue. However, the global rapeseed harvest is abundant, and the cost price is weak. Coupled with the increased import of Russian rapeseed oil, the supply gap is gradually disappearing. If China - Canada relations improve, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [71] 5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - In the short term, the inventory of the three major油脂 is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for油脂, the market boost is limited after the festival stocking is over. Due to limited population growth and the diversification and health - orientation of residents' diet structures, the overall terminal demand for油脂 is still relatively weak and may continue to operate steadily and weakly [77]

Market Focus - Indonesia's Trade Ministry has set the reference price for crude palm oil at $915.64 per ton for January, down from $926.14 per ton in December, maintaining an export tax of $74 per ton and an additional 10% export levy [1] - OPEC+ has agreed to maintain stable oil production through the first quarter of 2026, with oil prices dropping over 18% in 2025 due to concerns of oversupply, marking the largest annual decline since 2020 [1] - Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are reported at 1,240,587 tons, a decrease of 5.76% from the previous month, while exports for December 1-25 increased by 1.6% to 1,058,112 tons [1] - According to AmSpec, Malaysia's palm oil exports for December 1-31 are estimated at 1,197,434 tons, down 5.21% from the previous month [1] Inventory and Demand - Reuters reports that Malaysia's palm oil inventory is expected to rise to nearly a seven-year high, with a 4.7% month-on-month increase to 2.97 million tons, while production is expected to decline by 9% to 1.76 million tons [2] - India's palm oil imports fell to an eight-month low in December, estimated at 507,000 tons, a decrease of 20% month-on-month, which may increase inventories in major producing countries like Indonesia and Malaysia [3] Market Sentiment - The expectation of high palm oil inventories is putting downward pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures, leading to a bearish market sentiment [5] - Seasonal declines in production are anticipated in the coming months, which may influence market dynamics [5]

Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is currently weak, with significant divergence observed across sectors, particularly in precious metals and lithium, which are experiencing strong gains, while coal and chemical sectors are facing sharp declines [1]. Key Highlights - Lithium carbonate prices surged by 8.88%, with the main contract reaching 129,980 yuan/ton, driven by strong supply-demand dynamics [10][25]. - Domestic soda ash inventory increased to 1.5084 million tons, up by 10,010 tons or 7.11% from the previous period [4][19]. - The price of platinum and palladium saw significant fluctuations, with platinum rising by 6.48% and palladium by 8.88% after an initial spike of over 11% [10][26]. Sector Performance - The new energy sector showed a positive performance with a 2.4% increase, while coal and polyester chains declined by 2.9% and 1.7% respectively [5][21]. Fund Flows - The top five positions with increased holdings included soda ash (2605) with +101.2,焦煤 (焦煤2605) with +53.4, and rebar (螺纹钢2605) with +43.0 [6][22]. Commodity Insights - The supply of lithium is expected to tighten due to regulatory issues affecting domestic mining operations, with a projected monthly reduction of 0.8-1 million tons from key suppliers [10][25]. - The oil market is under pressure due to concerns over oversupply, with SC crude oil prices dropping to 421.7 yuan/barrel, marking a 3.39% decline [12][27].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华安期货投研 油脂类：外围影响，或提振油脂 核心观点： 豆油：因美国对委内瑞拉发动军事打击，在原油的提振下，植物油板块走势有望较强。目前南美产区天 气正常，丰产预期施压国际大豆价格，CBOT大豆走势维持弱势震荡。本周中储粮继续国产大豆拍卖， 从结果来看，市场参与积极性较高，而进口大豆的暂停拍卖，也令供给端压力略有减少，不过国内油厂 开机率仍处于高位，豆油的库存压力一直都在，而终端消费以刚需为主，供过于求格局延续，豆油价格 上方空间有限。 棕榈油：马来西亚船货检验机构ITS数据显示12月马棕油出口环比下降5.8%，SPPOMA数据显示同期马 棕油产量环比下降8.07%，产地棕榈油进入季节性减产，当下无论是产地还是主销国，棕榈油库存都偏 高，印尼下调毛棕油出口参考价利好棕榈油出口需。短期关注美国对委内瑞拉进行的军事打击对原油市 场的影响，或提振棕榈油，但产地库存压力仍在，预计将限制棕榈油上行高度。 菜油：短期关注原油为菜油带来的提振。进口菜籽的短缺，造成菜油持续去库，而终端采购积极性低 迷，菜油现货市场交投清淡。当前油脂消费进入淡季，需求难有 ...

弱现实，强预期 油脂月报 2026/01/04 13352843071 yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 杨泽元（农产品组） CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 利润库存 02 期现市场 05 成本端 03 供给端 06 需求端 01 月度评估及策略推荐 基本面评估 | 油脂基本面评估 | 估值 | | | 驱动 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 基差 | 利润及生柴价差 | 马来西亚/印尼棕榈油产量、 出口 | 其他植物油供需 | 中国、印度、马来、印尼库存 | | 数据 | P：05-58元/吨 Y：05+554元/吨 | 近月马棕到港成本 8932元/吨，棕榈油 | 马棕12月高频出口小幅增加， 减产较多；印尼10月去库，产 | 大豆：北美减种植面积，南美 正在生长 | 国内油脂库存较高，印度库存 同比略低，马来库存偏高，印 | | | OI：05+734元/吨 | 现货8590。生柴价差 中位。 | 量同比中性 | 菜籽：全球菜籽丰产 葵籽：全球葵籽小幅减产 ...

生意社01月04日讯 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 交易商品牌/产地交货地最新报价 大 豆油 分类:压榨成品 大豆 油 ;等级:一级 ; 山东博兴豆油市场山东博兴山东省/滨州市8260元/吨 山东日照豆油市场山东日照山东省/日照市8270元/吨 山东济南豆油市场山东济南山东省/济南市8270元/吨 山东龙口豆油市场山东龙口山东省/烟台市8260元/吨 山东青岛豆油市场山东青岛山东省8260元/吨 (文章来源：生意社) ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors. The core driver remains in the overseas origin markets. The weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils, and the market will maintain a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and further news on Indonesia's B50 [1][2]. - In the short - term, due to the lack of trend drivers, it is advisable to treat it as a short - term range. As palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season and the Ramadan in Southeast Asia is earlier next year, the pressure in the palm oil origin will gradually weaken, and its cost - effectiveness will increase. We can wait to see if it will start to rise after inventory destocking [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil origin. Malaysia's inventory is at a six - and - a - half - year high. Although the production - reduction season at the end of the year is expected to improve the supply pressure, insufficient export boost may slow down the destocking pace. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, which is in line with market expectations, but it has limited short - term benefits [1]. - The US biodiesel policy is still unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed to the first quarter of 2026, and the allocation ratio is uncertain [1]. - The negotiation between China and Canada shows no positive trend. However, the global new - season rapeseed harvest and the arrival of Australian rapeseeds have eased the supply tension, weakening the support for rapeseed oil. If the relationship between China and Canada recovers, the supply pressure of rapeseed oil will increase [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations No relevant content provided. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Trend judgment: Short - term low - level volatile adjustment, with a possibility of rebound in the first quarter of next year. - Price range: P2605 fluctuates in the range of [8200 - 8800], Y2605 in the range of [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 in the range of [8600 - 9500]. - Technical analysis: Treat it with a short - term low - level consolidation mindset for single - side trading. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads. - Basis strategy: Currently, view the basis with a short - term weak - volatility mindset. - Monthly spread strategy: None for now. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [22]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm oil futures and spot daily prices: Palm oil 01 is at 8646 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 8658 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8534 yuan/ton with a 1.52% increase; BMD palm oil main contract is at 4072 ringgit/ton with a 0.62% increase; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 8590 yuan/ton with an increase of 100 [24]. - Soybean oil futures and spot daily prices: Soybean oil 01 is at 8150 yuan/ton with a 0.06% increase; Soybean oil 05 is at 7878 yuan/ton with a 0.14% increase; Soybean oil 09 is at 7756 yuan/ton with a 0.03% decrease; CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 49.26 cents/pound with a 0.12% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8220 yuan/ton with an increase of 20 [24]. - Rapeseed oil futures and spot daily prices: Rapeseed oil 01 is at 9653 yuan/ton with an increase of 178; Rapeseed oil 05 is at 9040 yuan/ton with a decrease of 6; Rapeseed oil 09 is at 8997 yuan/ton with a decrease of 17; ICE Canadian rapeseed near - month contract is at 603.9 Canadian dollars/ton with an increase of 1; East China rapeseed oil spot is at 10130 yuan/ton with an increase of 250 [24]. - Oil monthly and inter - variety spreads: P 1 - 5 is - 12 yuan/ton with an increase of 20; Y - P 01 is - 444 yuan/ton with an increase of 38; etc. [25]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: As of December 26, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly to 2130000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 20000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 80000 tons, and a year - on - year increase of 220000 tons. The national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1089000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 34500 tons, a decrease of 3.07%. In October, Indonesia's palm oil export volume was 2.8 million tons, a year - on - year decline of about 3%. The production of crude palm oil was 4.35 million tons, and the inventory at the end of October was 2.33 million tons, lower than 2.59 million tons in the previous month [26][27]. - **Negative Information**: Favorable weather conditions in South America for soybean harvest, light trading before the New Year holiday, and the start of sporadic soybean harvesting in Brazil have weakened the upward space of the US soybean market. The ICE Canadian rapeseed futures market closed lower, mainly reflecting sufficient supply. The import of soybeans is still sufficient despite the oil mills' intention to hold prices [28]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions have remained stable, with an increase in soybean oil transactions and a slight decrease in rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions [30]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and high - frequency export data; Origin weather information [40]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market continued to fluctuate widely this week. The pressure in the origin has not been cleared, lacking a trend - driven upward momentum. The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the global oil market demand expansion is limited. The recent positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil have been cautious. Foreign capital has insufficient confidence in the oil sector [39]. - **Basis Structure**: This week, the main basis of oils continued to bottom - out and consolidate. Due to high domestic oil inventories and general downstream demand, the basis continued to operate weakly [42]. - **Monthly Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a near - strong and far - weak Back structure. This week, the Back structure of soybean oil became shallower, and the weak reality continued to suppress the disk. The spot end of palm oil is still weak, but the expected decrease in supply pressure in the first quarter of next year has injected a premium into the 05 contract. There is still a supply gap in the near - month rapeseed oil, but it is expected to ease over time [42]. - **Spread Structure**: This week, the rapeseed - soybean and rapeseed - palm spreads rebounded slightly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts destocking, the support improves, and the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [49]. 3.3.2 External Market This week, the external market fluctuated. The pressure in the palm oil origin remained unchanged, with insufficient weather disturbances and limited expectations for Indonesia's B50. The global soybean supply pattern is loose, and the US soybean lacks positive drivers, showing a weak oscillation. The US energy policy guidance is unclear, and the US soybean oil has declined, dragging down the international palm oil, which also remained weak [52]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain This week, the POGO spread rebounded slightly as the palm oil price stabilized, and the production cost of palm - oil - based biofuels increased slightly. The BOHO spread continued to weaken due to the good global soybean harvest expectation, and the cost of US soybean - oil - based biodiesel remained at a multi - year low [56]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the origin price has been consolidating at a low level, and the import profit has changed slightly with a limited profit range. After the basis turned positive, domestic buyers started to place orders, but the profit weakened again near the end of the year [58]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction In November, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not relieved. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in December, but the export boost was insufficient. It is expected that an inventory inflection point may be seen in January [62]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the current procurement situation, transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. As it enters the production - reduction season in the origin, the willingness to sell is limited. Considering the easy solidification of palm oil in winter and the negative basis, domestic orders are not expected to increase. We can wait for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [64]. - **Soybean Oil**: In December, the arrival of raw materials decreased, and the crushing volume declined. Although the current inventory pressure is large and the overall supply is relatively loose, the seasonal shortage of soybean arrivals in the first quarter needs attention [64]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseeds are arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory is mainly in the process of destocking. With the global rapeseed harvest, the cost price is weak. More Australian rapeseeds will arrive next year, and if the China - Canada relationship improves, the domestic rapeseed oil supply will further increase [64]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction In the short - term, the inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish and lags behind the average level. After the festival stocking ends, the boost to the market is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [67].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils fluctuated yesterday. With sufficient soybean arrivals, the soybean crushing rate of oil mills is relatively high, resulting in a loose supply of soybean oil and high inventory. It is expected that soybean oil will remain volatile in the short term [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - Yesterday, the closing price of the palm oil 2605 contract was 8,512 yuan/ton, a decrease of 56 yuan or 0.65% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2605 contract was 7,818 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan or 0.23% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2605 contract was 9,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan or 0.07% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,490 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan or 0.59%, and the spot basis was P05 - 22 yuan, an increase of 6 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,230 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan or 0.12%, and the spot basis was Y05 + 412 yuan, an increase of 8 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,740 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan or 0.41%, and the spot basis was OI05 + 700 yuan, an increase of 46 yuan [1] Market News - The C&F prices of Argentine soybean oil and Canadian rapeseed oil for different shipping dates remained flat compared to the previous trading day, while the C&F prices of US and Brazilian soybeans for January shipping decreased by 2 dollars/ton [2] - The export volume of Argentine soybean oil in November was 524,000 tons, lower than the previous month and last year. The total exports to India and Nepal increased. The total exports in the first 11 months were 6.48 million tons, lower than the same period in 2024. Further shipments are expected to be lower than last year due to reduced soybean processing and lower inventory [2] - Argentina announced a reduction in export tariffs for the soybean industry, with soybean tariffs decreasing from 26.5% to 24% and soybean product tariffs from 24.5% to 22.5% [2] Soybean Oil Situation - As of December 19, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.1235 million tons, at a nearly 6 - year high. Last Thursday, the market traded on the delay of soybean customs clearance, boosting the soybean - related market, and the short - covering led to an increase in the spot basis [3]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 马棕1 2月前2 5日产量降幅扩大 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20251228 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，南美主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利已播大豆的生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，SPPOMA数据显示，马棕12月1-25日产量环比减少9.12%。ITS数据显示，马棕12月1- ...