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油脂周报:中东地缘扩大,油脂上涨有所乏力-20250623
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 03:09
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Currently, the Middle East geopolitical conflict shows signs of expansion, with crude oil prices rising continuously. In the short term, edible oils may follow the upward trend of crude oil and US biodiesel, but the upward momentum is weakening. Attention should be paid to Iran's attitude [6][26]. - Fundamentally, India has lowered the tax rate on crude palm oil, which may increase India's purchases. Continued attention should be paid to the purchasing situations of China and India. Domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists, but the bottom support of the rapeseed oil futures market is still strong, with significant price increases [6][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Market - Malaysia's palm oil production in June may decline. SPPOMA estimates that the production in the first 15 days of June decreased by 4%, with the decline narrowing compared to the 17% decrease in the first 10 days. ITS estimates that the exports in the first 20 days of June increased by 14% month - on - month, with the increase rate declining compared to the 26% increase in the first 15 days. It is expected that the inventory in June will be around 2 million tons, showing little change compared to May [10]. - Indonesia may raise the export reference price to around $875 in July, up from $856 in June, but the TAX is expected to remain unchanged, and the levy will increase slightly [10]. 3.2 Domestic Palm Oil - As of June 13, 2025 (Week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 409,600 tons, an increase of 37,000 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 9.93%. The inventory is still at a relatively low level in the same period of history. The origin's quotes are stable with a slight increase, and the import profit inversion has narrowed. There were sporadic purchases this week, and the basis is stable with a slight decline. In May, China imported 210,000 tons of palm oil, and the cumulative import from January to May was only 990,000 tons, at a historical low. The apparent consumption in May was basically 210,000 tons, also at a historical low [15]. - The spot market has changed little. The cumulative spot trading volume of palm oil this week was only more than 2,000 tons, significantly less than the 13,000 tons of the previous week. Recently, India has carried out cargo cancellation, but the impact on the futures market is limited. Currently, palm oil shows a fluctuating upward trend due to the Middle East geopolitical situation and US biodiesel policies, but the upward momentum weakens after a rapid increase. Attention should be paid to the development of the Middle East situation, and caution should be exercised against a potential decline from high levels [15]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Oil - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 847,000 tons, an increase of 34,300 tons from the previous week, a growth rate of 4.22%. It is at a relatively neutral to slightly low level in the same period of history, and the basis has declined, with the East China region quoting at 09 + 230. This week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.3842 million tons, with an operating rate of 67.02%, slightly higher than the previous week [18]. - Currently, soybean oil has a good cost - performance ratio, and the spot trading volume has improved. The cumulative spot trading volume of soybean oil this week was about 110,000 tons, slightly less than the 107,000 tons of the previous week, but at a relatively high level in the same period of history. Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the US biodiesel situation, the futures market of edible oils has generally risen. Fundamentally, domestic soybean oil has entered a stage of inventory accumulation, but the overall supply is still not loose. In the short term, edible oils are expected to be relatively strong, but the upward momentum is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels [18]. 3.4 Domestic Rapeseed Oil - Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 71,500 tons, with an operating rate of 19.06%, slightly lower than the previous week. As of June 6, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 769,000 tons, a decrease of 12,500 tons from the previous week, still at a historical high. The FOB price of European rapeseed oil is around $1,050, and the import profit inversion of European rapeseed oil has widened to around - 1,400. In May, China imported 340,000 tons of rapeseed, but only 110,000 tons of rapeseed oil, at a relatively low level in the same period of history [23]. - The spot market is booming. The spot trading volume of rapeseed oil this week was 47,000 tons, slightly lower than the 50,000 tons of the previous week, but at a historical high in the same period. The domestic rapeseed oil basis is stable with a slight increase, with the three - grade rapeseed oil in Guangxi quoting at 09 + 70. The fundamentals of domestic rapeseed oil have not changed much, and the pattern of oversupply persists. The international relations and the overall trend of edible oils affect the repeated fluctuations of rapeseed oil, and there are many policy - related market changes. Risk management should be carried out [23]. 3.5 Strategy Recommendations - Unilateral strategy: Affected by geopolitical and other factors, edible oils have risen significantly. Continued attention should be paid to the Middle East situation. In the short term, the upward momentum of edible oils is weakening, and caution should be exercised against a decline from high levels. - Arbitrage strategy: Wait and see. - Option strategy: Wait and see. (The views are for reference only and not for trading purposes) [28]
油脂周报:受多重利好持续提振,油脂偏强运行-20250622
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 12:05
油脂周报 | 2025-06-22 受多重利好持续提振,油脂偏强运行 油脂观点 市场要闻与重要数据 价格行情 期货方面,本周收盘棕榈油2509合约8536元/吨,环比上涨396元,涨幅4.86%;本周收盘豆油2509合约8156元 /吨,环比上涨370元,涨幅4.75%;本周收盘菜油2509合约9726元/吨,环比上涨416元,涨幅4.47%。现货方面, 广东地区棕榈油现货价格8480元/吨,环比上涨250元,涨幅2.95%,现货基差P09+194,环比下跌146元;天津 地区一级豆油现货价格8340元/吨,环比上涨300元/吨,涨幅3.73%,现货基差Y09+184,环比下跌70元;江苏 地区四级菜油现货价格9910元/吨,环比上涨400元,涨幅4.2%,现货基差OI09+184,环比下跌16元。 棕榈油供需 供应方面,马来西亚棕榈油压榨商协会(SPPOMA)最新数据显示,2025年6月1-15日马来西亚棕榈鲜果串单产 减少3.85%,出油率下调0.03%,棕榈油产量减少4%。由于前期产量同比增加幅度明显、基数增大,近期棕榈油 产量环比止增下降,供应方面对价格暂无较大压力,持续关注产区天气情况。周内(6.1 ...
美生柴政策利好影响还未消退,油脂短期或震荡偏强
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 12:04
期货交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 美生柴政策利好影响还未消退 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20250622 邓丹 交易咨询号:Z0011401 从业资格号:F0300922 0769-22111252 审核:陈小国 从业资格号:F03100622 交易咨询号:Z0021111 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 产业链结构 产业链结构 ◆ 总的来看,在原油强势以及美国生柴政策利好的情况下,油脂短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 豆油方面,未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨,玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨;第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般,堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看,未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面,SPPOMA数据显示,2025年6月1-15日马棕产量减少4%。ITS和Amspec数据显示,马来西亚6月1-20 日棕榈油出口量较上月同期出口增加14.31%和10.88%。6月的马棕产量小幅下降,同时出口数据大幅增加,利 好棕榈油。 ◆ 菜油方面,近期国内菜油库存有所下降,但仍处于历史同期高位,供应充足,后期国内菜籽进口 ...
油脂:市场情绪缓和,油脂震荡偏强
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 10:03
油脂:市场情绪缓和 油脂震荡偏强 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号:F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0018581 表 1:油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 물 | в | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 单位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8152.00 | 8084.00 | 68.00 | 0.84% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 8538.00 | 8518.00 | 20.00 | 0.23% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月19日 | 元/吨 | 9691.00 | 9703.00 | -12.00 | -0.12% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1072.75 | 1074.00 | -1.25 | -0.12% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月18日 | 美分/磅 | 54.62 ...
油脂:原油冲高回落,油脂涨势放缓
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 11:34
油脂:原油冲高回落 油脂涨势放缓 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号:F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0018581 表 1:油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | SHF | HE | E | 数据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 載至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 期货 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 7972.00 | 7960.00 | 12.00 | 0.15% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 8446.00 | 8436.00 | 10.00 | 0.12% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月17日 | 元/吨 | 9583.00 | 9505.00 | 78.00 | 0.82% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1070.00 | 1068.50 | 1.50 | 0.14% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 美分/磅 | 55.11 ...
油脂日报:国际冲突加剧,油脂震荡偏强-20250617
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-17 02:39
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the intensification of international conflicts and changes in supply - demand factors, the prices of the three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil) are oscillating strongly. The macro - level international conflict has led to a sharp rise in international oil prices, which in turn drives up the prices of vegetable oils. On the supply - demand side, changes in the US biodiesel policy, the unexpected inventory build - up in the MPOB report, and the increase in Indian imports have all contributed to the price increase of oils [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8436.00 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 296 yuan or 3.64%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 7960.00 yuan/ton, up 174.00 yuan or 2.23%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9505.00 yuan/ton, up 195.00 yuan or 2.09% [1] - Spot prices: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8700.00 yuan/ton, up 220.00 yuan or 2.59%. In Tianjin, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8200.00 yuan/ton, up 160.00 yuan or 1.99%. In Jiangsu, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9710.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan or 2.10% [1] 3.2 Inventory Data - As of June 13, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 84.7 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.43 million tons or 4.22%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.06 million tons or 9.66% [2] - As of June 13, 2025 (week 24), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 40.96 million tons, a weekly increase of 3.70 million tons or 9.93%, and a year - on - year increase of 4.20 million tons or 11.41% [2] - As of June 16, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans across the country was 590.592 million tons, a decrease of 5.088 million tons from June 9 [2] 3.3 Factors Affecting Prices - **Macro - level**: The Israeli air - strike on Iranian targets last Thursday led to a sharp escalation of tensions in the Middle East. International oil prices soared by more than 9%, driving up the prices of vegetable oils. If the conflict spreads to key energy infrastructure or Iran blocks the Strait of Hormuz, it will have a major impact on the global energy supply chain [3] - **Supply - demand level**: - **Soybean oil**: The US EPA proposed a mandatory blending of 5.61 billion gallons of biodiesel in 2026, higher than the 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 and exceeding market expectations, leading to a sharp rise in CBOT soybean oil prices [3] - **Palm oil**: The MPOB report showed less - than - expected inventory build - up. India's reduction of import tariffs on crude palm oil improved import profits, increased purchases, and boosted international market prices. India's edible oil inventory is at a multi - year low, and the relatively low price of international palm oil has prompted Indian refineries to increase purchases [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: The strong operation of ICE rapeseed has increased the cost of imported rapeseed in China. With the decline in crushing profits, domestic oil mills are adopting a wait - and - see attitude. Rapeseed arrivals are expected to decrease in the coming months, and the current low inventory of rapeseed has led to low overall operation rates of oil mills, resulting in a firm spot price of rapeseed oil [3]
油脂:能源恐慌叠加生柴利好,油脂集体大涨
Jin Shi Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 12:57
油脂:能源恐慌叠加生柴利好 油脂集体大涨 冯子悦 fengzy@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号:F03111391 投资咨询从业证书号:Z0018581 表 1:油脂期货日度数据监测 | | | | 뷰 | E | 数 据 追 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 截至 | 単位 | 令日 | 昨日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 朗宗 | DCE豆油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 7960.00 | 7786.00 | 174.00 | 2.23% | | | DCE棕榈油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 8436.00 | 8140.00 | 296.00 | 3.64% | | | CZCE菜籽油主力 | 6月16日 | 元/吨 | 9505.00 | 9310.00 | 195.00 | 2.09% | | | CBOT大豆主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/蒲式耳 | 1068.50 | 1043.00 | 25.50 | 2.44% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 6月13日 | 美分/磅 | 5 ...
正信期货棕榈油周报20250616:美生柴及地缘扰动再起,油脂板块整体转强-20250616
Zheng Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 08:41
上周CBOT豆油涨停收官;内盘三大油脂先抑后扬,均创逾一个半月高点。 PPT模板:www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材:www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景:www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表:www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载:www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程: www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载:www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载:www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载:www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载:www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛:www.1ppt.cn PPT课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/yin gyu/ 美术课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/meis hu/ 科学课件:www.1ppt.com/kejian/kex ...
首个中马“一带一路”联合实验室在广州启动
Core Viewpoint - The establishment of the China-Malaysia joint laboratory for oil processing and safety marks a significant collaboration under the Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at advancing key technologies in the oil industry and promoting sustainable development [1][2]. Group 1: Joint Laboratory Overview - The joint laboratory is the first of its kind between China and Malaysia, co-established by Jinan University and Universiti Putra Malaysia, serving as a national-level technology innovation platform [1]. - The laboratory focuses on four main research areas: oil bio-processing and safety, extraction of bioactive lipid molecules and their health effects, applications of healthy oils and functional foods, and the sustainability of the palm oil supply chain [1]. Group 2: Research Directions and Goals - The laboratory aims to transform palm oil from Malaysia into more nutritious and healthy glycerol diesters, representing the future of healthy oils, through methods like bio-processing and synthetic biology [1]. - Research will also focus on extracting active components such as beta-carotene from structural lipids to study their anti-inflammatory, anti-osteoporosis, and anti-cancer mechanisms, with plans to develop functional products [1]. - Collaboration with the School of Pharmacy at Jinan University will explore lipid bio-molecules from Malaysian medicinal plants [1]. Group 3: Bilateral Trade Context - By 2025, China and Malaysia will celebrate the 51st anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 12th anniversary of their comprehensive strategic partnership [2]. - China imports approximately 28 million tons of oils annually, while Malaysia exports about 15 million tons of palm oil, indicating a highly complementary supply-demand structure between the two countries [2].
油脂日报:棕榈油产量增加,油脂承压下跌-20250612
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 03:26
油脂日报 | 2025-06-12 棕榈油产量增加,油脂承压下跌 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面,昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约7970.00元/吨,环比变化-146元,幅度-1.80%;昨日收盘豆油2509合约7694.00 元/吨,环比变化-64.00元,幅度-0.82%;昨日收盘菜油2509合约9149.00元/吨,环比变化-39.00元,幅度-0.42%。现 货方面,广东地区棕榈油现货价8310.00元/吨,环比变化-180.00元,幅度-2.12%,现货基差P09+340.00,环比变化 -34.00元;天津地区一级豆油现货价格7900.00元/吨,环比变化-70.00元/吨,幅度-0.88%,现货基差Y09+206.00, 环比变化-6.00元;江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9350.00元/吨,环比变化-40.00元,幅度-0.43%,现货基差OI09+201.00, 环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总:MPOB报告显示,5月底马来西亚棕榈油库存为199万吨,连续第三个月增长,为2024年9月以 来的最高库存,主要因为棕榈油产量持续增长,抵消了出口前景的影响。据外媒报道,阿根廷农牧渔业国秘处公 布的数 ...