Core Insights - Indian refiners have paused new orders for Russian oil, awaiting clearer information regarding the situation [1] Group 1 - Indian refiners are currently in a holding pattern, indicating a cautious approach to sourcing Russian oil [1]

Core Viewpoint - China's strategy of importing crude oil at high prices while exporting refined oil at lower prices is not merely a loss-making business but is deeply intertwined with national energy security, tax policies, and industrial layout [3][25]. Taxation - The significant difference in pricing between domestic and exported refined oil is largely influenced by China's tax policies, particularly the "processing trade" model, which allows for tax exemptions on imported crude oil and exported refined products [7][9]. - The tax structure encourages companies to enhance refining capabilities and expand international market share, rather than simply incurring losses [9][10]. Transportation Costs - The high costs associated with transporting refined oil, such as shipping fees and operational expenses, are factored into pricing strategies, allowing Chinese refineries to remain competitive in the Asian market [14][16]. - The scale advantages of Chinese refining bases, which integrate logistics and production, help to mitigate costs and enhance pricing competitiveness [18][20]. Refining Capacity Overcapacity - China's refining capacity currently stands at 1 billion tons per year, while domestic demand is only 390 million tons, leading to significant overcapacity [20][22]. - The shift towards electric vehicles and renewable energy sources has reduced domestic oil consumption, necessitating exports to manage excess capacity [20][24]. - Some refineries are transitioning to produce higher-value chemical products, which can yield significantly higher profits compared to traditional refined oil [20][24]. Strategic Implications - The export of refined oil serves not only as a means to manage excess capacity but also as a strategic move to build geopolitical relationships, particularly in regions like Southeast Asia and Central Asia [22][24]. - The current pricing strategy is viewed as a short-term sacrifice for long-term gains, positioning China favorably in the global energy transition landscape [24][27].

配额渐向大型企业和省级重点项目集中，或加速地炼企业整合重组 从炼油成本方面看，燃料油消费税抵扣比例从全额抵扣降至50%～80%，使得地炼企业的原料成本大幅 增加。对于部分以燃料油、稀释沥青为主要原料且应税产品占比较低的中小炼厂，成本可能会增加200 元～600元/吨。2026年中小地炼企业若需额外采购燃料油补充原料，则会进一步加重成本负担。"因 此，呼吁取消燃料油消费税按比例抵扣的政策，给地炼企业进口燃料油更为宽松的空间，以期地炼企业 能够获得更多成本低廉的原料，节省更多的外汇支出，降低国家的能源成本。"张留成说。 从行业格局方面分析，进口配额分配叠加燃料油消费税抵扣将使得地炼企业分化加剧，大型炼厂凭借充 足配额和较低成本优势，占据有利竞争地位，而中小炼厂生存空间或因此受限，从而加速行业整合与洗 牌。 中化新网讯 10月21日，商务部公布了2026年原油非国营贸易进口允许量总量，为25700万吨。"该数据 与2025年持平，较2024年的2.43亿吨有所增加。配额分配逐渐向大型企业和省级重点项目集中，使得中 小地方炼油企业的配额会逐渐减少，从而加速地炼行业整合与洗牌。"山东省高端化工产业发展促进会 秘书长张留 ...

Group 1 - The 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session emphasizes the importance of effective investment and breaking down barriers to the construction of a unified national market, which may benefit leading companies in the chemical industry [1] - The report highlights that the domestic production rate of electronic chemicals and high-end polyolefins is low, indicating potential growth areas for future development [2] - The petrochemical industry faces challenges due to homogeneous production capacity, necessitating stricter management of new refining and key petrochemical projects to avoid disorderly expansion and duplication [3] Group 2 - The refining industry is identified as a key area for governance, with a significant portion of refining capacity in Shandong province, suggesting potential for capacity reduction and benefits for private refining enterprises [4] - The polyester filament industry is proactively implementing production cuts to balance market supply and demand, which may favor leading companies in the sector [4]

Group 1: Economic Performance - Jiangsu's economic total has surpassed 10 trillion yuan for the first time in the first three quarters of 2023, while Shanghai has exceeded 4 trillion yuan [5] - Zhejiang leads in growth rate at 5.7%, followed by Shanghai at 5.5%, and Jiangsu and Anhui both at 5.4%, all above the national average growth rate of 5.2% [5] - Jiangsu's industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 6.8% year-on-year, maintaining a stable operational trend [5] Group 2: Market Trends - On October 27, the stock market experienced a significant rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by over 1%, reaching a ten-year high and approaching 4000 points [3] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 2.34 trillion yuan, an increase of 365.9 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [3] - Sectors such as storage chips, CPO, and controllable nuclear fusion saw the highest gains, while gaming and wind power equipment sectors faced declines [3] Group 3: Corporate Developments - Amazon announced plans to invest over 1.4 billion euros in the Netherlands over the next three years, marking its largest investment commitment since entering the market in 2020 [7] - Jingda HK Trading Co., Limited, a subsidiary of JD.com, has been renamed to "JD Insurance Consultant (Hong Kong) Limited" and has obtained an insurance brokerage license [7]

Core Points - The EU's recent sanctions against Chinese energy companies signal a deeper geopolitical conflict, involving both political and economic dimensions [1][3][11] - The sanctions specifically target 12 Chinese and Hong Kong companies, which play a crucial role in the processing and export of Russian oil, indicating a significant impact on Sino-Russian oil trade [3][9] - The EU's strategy includes secondary sanctions aimed at third parties providing services to the targeted companies, reflecting a comprehensive approach to disrupt cross-border supply chains [3][5] Industry Impact - The targeted Chinese companies account for less than 3% of national refining capacity but are vital for importing, processing, and exporting Russian oil, suggesting a short-term disruption in Sino-Russian energy trade [3][9] - The sanctions may lead to increased oil prices, nearing $95 per barrel, which could compress profit margins for industries in Europe and the US due to cost transmission to end consumers [9][11] - The EU's ambition to "de-China" the renewable energy supply chain faces significant challenges, as reliance on China for rare earths and manufacturing remains difficult to replace in the short term [9][13] Geopolitical Context - The sanctions represent a strategic shift where Western powers attempt to intertwine geopolitical and industrial policies, but practical implementation may be hindered by supply chain realities and member state interests [11][13] - Russia's willingness to support China during this period indicates a robust political and economic partnership, with Russian oil exports to sanctioned Chinese firms accounting for over 800 million tons, or 12% of the EU's targeted oil exports [7][11] - The situation is characterized by a complex interplay of interests, where both sides must navigate the costs and benefits of their actions, suggesting a long-term strategic competition rather than a straightforward confrontation [11][15]

Core Insights - The relationship between the US and India has become increasingly volatile, particularly regarding India's significant import of Russian oil, which has implications for both commercial interests and the global energy market [1][3]. Group 1: Energy Imports and Economic Impact - India's crude oil imports from Russia have surged from 5% to 30%, indicating a strategic shift in India's energy policy and its nuanced role in international politics [3]. - Indian refiners are processing the imported Russian crude into finished products and exporting them at higher prices, resulting in substantial economic gains for India [3]. - The increase in Russian oil imports has drawn significant discontent from the US, leading to pressure on India to halt these imports and imposing a 50% tariff on Indian goods [3][5]. Group 2: Industry Response and Compliance - Reliance Industries, India's largest private refiner, has announced a suspension of Russian oil purchases, reflecting a significant shift in India's stance and compliance with international sanctions [5]. - Various Indian refining companies are reviewing their trade documents with Russia to ensure compliance, which may impact India's crude oil supply structure and raise concerns about energy security [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Considerations - The current situation necessitates India to reassess its strategic relationship with Russia while balancing its growing ties with the US, particularly in defense procurement [5][7]. - The evolving dynamics suggest that India is seeking to maintain its advantage in the global power struggle, avoiding alienation from either the US or Russia [5][7]. - The ongoing "oil purchasing controversy" raises questions about India's future energy policies and its ability to navigate complex geopolitical landscapes [7].

Core Points - India's largest private refiner, Reliance Industries, plans to stop purchasing Russian crude oil following U.S. sanctions on Russia's major oil companies [1][3] - The company aims to comply with Western sanctions while maintaining relationships with current oil suppliers [1][3] Group 1: Sanctions and Compliance - The U.S. Treasury announced sanctions against Russia's largest oil companies, including state-owned Rosneft and private company Lukoil [3] - The European Union has also implemented its 19th round of sanctions against Russia, affecting the energy sector [3] Group 2: Supply Contracts and Strategy - Reliance Industries has a long-term agreement to purchase nearly 500,000 barrels of crude oil daily from Russian oil companies, set to expire at the end of 2024 [3] - The company emphasizes its diversified crude procurement strategy to ensure stability and reliability in its refining operations, catering to both domestic and export demands, including Europe [3]

重整装置的催化剂再生效果直接关系到产品质量及收率，而再生烟气微量氧分析仪是保证催化剂再生效 果的关键仪表。自8月以来，广东石化再生烟气微量氧分析仪数值波动较大，影响催化剂再生效果，导 致产品收率不达标。 "从这20天的运行数据来看，重整装置氧含量在0.63%至0.65%之间稳定运行，与工艺工况相符，表明这 次在线氧表改造成功了!"10月9日，广东石化炼油四部工艺副经理宁晓威在中心控制室高兴地说。 对此，炼油四部第一时间联系专利商工程师到现场进行分析诊断，最后确认为传感器老化导致仪表数值 波动，需进行更换。"按照以往经验，更换管道内的传感器需要停工降温降压，会直接影响全年生产任 务。而如果在线拆卸更换，作业人员则要面临风险。"专利商UOP工程师说道。 面对"不停机维修"这一挑战，技术人员广泛研究，最终从其他"抽取式"在线仪表中找到了创新破题的方 向：将传感器从管道内部移至外部。为此，技术人员专门制作了与传感器配套的烟气流通测量池，将旧 仪表的"标定管"作为新表的"采样管"，将烟气样品引至流通池内，实现"外部"测量目的。 为保证传感器及采样管路不被腐蚀，技术人员还就地取材，利用现场250℃的高温烟气管线作为"天 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The current round of precious metals upward trend since late August may extend to 2026 due to factors such as the Fed's potential interest - rate cuts, high geopolitical risks, and the acceleration of the global trade - currency system restructuring. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce the hedging ratio. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control their positions and be aware of short - term adjustment risks [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Analysis - **Intraday Market**: Sino - US trade tensions show signs of easing, weakening safe - haven demand and pressuring London gold to around $4080 per ounce. But the US federal government shutdown and Fed rate cuts support precious metals. It is necessary to observe whether London gold can stabilize between $3950 - $4050 per ounce. This week, focus on Sino - US trade talks, China's September economic data, the progress of the US government shutdown, and the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee [4]. - **Medium - term Market**: The US employment and inflation situation supports the Fed's rate - cut restart. Global trade - currency system restructuring and high geopolitical risks continue to drive gold demand. The upward trend of precious metals since late August may extend to 2026. The six - month and one - year target prices for London gold are $4500 and $4800 per ounce respectively, and for London silver are $58 and $63 per ounce respectively. However, the current high price - earnings ratio of gold requires strong safe - haven demand, and long - position investors need to control positions and beware of short - term adjustments. The support levels for London gold are $4130 and $3975 per ounce, and for London silver are $50.31 and $47.76 per ounce [5]. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts The report provides multiple charts related to precious metals, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai gold T + D, and gold and silver ETF holdings, etc., but no specific analysis of these charts is given in the text [6][7][9]. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Russian President Putin stated that Moscow will never yield to external pressure and will respond overwhelmingly if its deep - seated targets are attacked. He also said that US and Western sanctions have little impact on Russia's economic well - being [17]. - The EU included two Chinese refineries (Liaoyang Petrochemical and Shandong Yulong Petrochemical) and PetroChina's trading unit (PetroChina Hong Kong) in the sanctions list against Russia, claiming they are major buyers of Russian crude oil. It also sanctioned a Chinese trading company for its role in Russia's sanctions - evasion [17]. - The US is preparing to investigate China's compliance with the trade agreement signed during Trump's first term [17]. - The Kuwaiti oil minister said that OPEC is ready to increase oil production by further canceling production cuts if necessary after the US imposed new sanctions on Russian oil giants, expecting demand to shift to the Gulf and Middle East regions [17].