华泰证券指出，1月下旬以来，美国遭遇冬季风暴极端天气已造成部分受灾地区天然气/电力供应中断、 能源价格上涨等影响，其中作为美国化工重要供给区的得克萨斯州墨西哥湾沿岸炼油、化工等部分工厂 开工已受影响。考虑到美国较多大宗化工品占全球产能比重仍较高，因而本轮寒潮导致的潜在供给下滑 或对相关产品的供应稳定性造成一定冲击。同时，由于我国大宗化工品已步入产能周期和库存周期双重 拐点，海外供给的潜在下滑或助力国内相关化工品开工率提升及景气率先修复。关注炼油、乙烯、醋 酸、MDI、TDI等。 ...

具体调整包括，国有炼油商巴拉特石油已向托克授予购买伊拉克巴士拉原油和阿曼原油的一年期合同， 并正寻求从阿联酋购买穆尔班原油。此外，印度炼油商也增加了对美国石油的采购，以部分替代俄油并 缩小对美贸易逆差，同时也在寻找委内瑞拉原油的机会。 市场人士分析认为，中东产油国凭借OPEC提高的产量配额保持全球市场供应充足，加之美国去年将印 度商品进口关税提高一倍以惩罚其大量购买俄油，共同推动了印度供应链的多元化进程。 中化新网讯 近日市场分析报告称，印度炼油商近期重新规划原油进口策略，逐步减少对原最大供应国 俄罗斯的依赖，同时增加自中东的采购。这一转变可能有助于新德里与美国达成一项降低关税的贸易协 议。 自2022年俄乌冲突后，印度成为俄罗斯海运折扣原油的最大买家，但该贸易因西方制裁而承压。据行业 消息人士透露，在政府会议讨论以助力加速印美贸易协定后，印度炼油商已开始缩减俄油采购。贸易数 据显示，去年12月印度进口的俄罗斯石油已降至两年低点，而来自石油输出国组织(OPEC)国家原油所 占份额则达到11个月高位。 ...

中国成品油周报 研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F3108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析和数据追踪 | 4 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析 ◼ 市场概况： 137/137/137 供应端，周全国炼厂开工上行0.8个百分点至71.4%，主营开工持续上行1.5个百分点至78.8%，云南石化开工继续上行，上海石化检修完成；地炼 开工持续下行0.3个百分点至53.6%，山东地炼开工率环比继续下跌，部分炼厂减产柴油，神驰化工等两家地炼进入全厂检修持续，大部分炼厂开 工稳定无新停开工。本周主营和地炼汽柴油产量均小幅上行。柴汽比下跌0.01至1.31。需求端，市场中下游采购积极性转弱，市场情绪消极，汽 柴油船单成交稳定车单产销下滑，汽柴产销率均下行。库存，商业库存汽柴油均累库。汽油11 ...

Core Viewpoint - TotalEnergies' CEO anticipates that the EU will relax its requirements for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), similar to its previous decision to withdraw the proposal to ban the sale of new internal combustion engine vehicles starting in 2035 [1] Group 1: Regulatory Changes - The EU mandated that the proportion of SAF in aviation fuel used at airports must reach 2% last year, increasing to 6% by 2030 and 20% by 2035 [1] - The CEO noted that all airlines oppose the 6% SAF limit, suggesting that EU regulations for SAF will evolve similarly to those for automobiles [1] Group 2: Production and Investment - TotalEnergies is producing SAF at multiple refineries and has plans to expand capacity [1] - However, the company has decided to postpone investments in increasing production capacity due to cautious customer attitudes towards purchasing quantities exceeding the EU regulatory requirements [1]

封图来源 | 新华社 极寒天气本周继续袭击北美。美国国家气象局表示，新英格兰地区南部的低压系统周一开始向东移动至大西 洋上空，给美国东北部部分地区带来强降雪，中大西洋部分地区则将出现冻雨天气。受此影响，美国油气勘 探业产能大幅下降，天然气期货主力合约盘中大涨超25%，并推高了电力价格。随着航运货运等行业被波 及，一季度美国经济增速或受到明显影响。 寒流重创美国能源业 受席卷全美的冬季风暴影响，美国能源基础设施和电网承压。机构预测，上周末期间美国原油生产商的日产 量减少至多200万桶，约占全国原油总产量的15%。 能源咨询机构能源视角（Energy Aspects）公司预计，美国原油产量减停产在上周六达到峰值，其中二叠纪 盆地的减产占比最大，日产量预估锐减约150万桶。周一减产情况有所缓解，二叠纪盆地当前原油日减产量 2026.01. 27 本文字数：2173，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 经济影响 伴随强冬季风暴席卷美国大部地区，冻雨和强降雪天气扰乱出行、导致交通网络陷入瘫痪，各大航空公司周 一被迫取消数千架次航班，另有大量航班出现延误。 约70万桶，预计当地产量将于1月30日完全恢复。 雪 ...

Economic Impact - The winter storm is expected to reduce the U.S. GDP growth rate by 0.5 to 1.5 percentage points in Q1 [7] - The storm has caused significant disruptions in transportation, leading to the cancellation of approximately 5,300 flights and over 4,300 delays as of Monday [6] - The storm's impact on the economy may result in initial economic losses estimated between $105 billion and $115 billion [7] Energy Sector - The winter storm has severely impacted the U.S. energy sector, with oil production potentially decreasing by up to 2 million barrels per day, representing about 15% of total U.S. production [3] - Natural gas production has also been affected, with a 12% reduction in capacity, and daily production dropping to a two-year low of 926 million cubic feet [3] - Natural gas futures prices surged over 25%, reaching a new high of $6.5 per million British thermal units, with a cumulative increase exceeding 100% since the previous week [4] Electricity Supply - Approximately 810,000 customers remain without power, with the PJM grid operator predicting a power production interruption of 22.4 gigawatts, about 16% of its total committed supply capacity [5] - Wholesale electricity prices have skyrocketed, with some regions experiencing prices exceeding $3,000 per megawatt-hour, marking a 1,400% increase [5] Weather Impact on Business Operations - The storm has disrupted shipping and logistics, with UPS warning of service interruptions and potential impacts on its air freight network [6] - Railroads have also prepared for operational disruptions due to the storm [6]

Wall Street analysts expect Valero Energy (VLO) to post quarterly earnings of $3.19 per share in its upcoming report, which indicates a year-over-year increase of 398.4%. Revenues are expected to be $28.9 billion, down 6% from the year-ago quarter.Over the last 30 days, there has been a downward revision of 26.1% in the consensus EPS estimate for the quarter, leading to its current level. This signifies the covering analysts' collective reconsideration of their initial forecasts over the course of this time ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and Kazakhstan, are supporting a recent upward trend in international oil prices, despite potential limitations from extreme winter weather in the U.S. and government shutdown concerns [1][2] - As of January 26, the average price of crude oil was reported at $62.69 per barrel, with a change rate of 2.39%, leading to an increase in domestic gasoline and diesel prices by 115 yuan per ton [1] - The supply side is expected to see an increase in gasoline and diesel production due to the planned resumption of operations at certain refineries, with overall refinery operating rates likely to continue on an upward trend [1] Group 2 - The domestic refined oil market is currently in a wait-and-see phase, with mid and downstream operators showing cautious purchasing behavior amid heightened risk aversion, limiting stockpiling activities [2] - The low profit margins in refining are constraining the downside potential for gasoline and diesel prices, with diesel prices reaching a near five-year low, leading to some refineries experiencing negative margins [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, there is an expectation of increased gasoline demand due to pre-holiday stockpiling, while diesel demand is anticipated to decline further, creating a mixed outlook for refined oil prices [2]

2026年，基础油市场步入需求格局转变、监管革新与供应链调整交织的复杂阶段，全球呈现亚欧产能扩 张、美国态度审慎的分化态势，供需错配与区域效益差异成为市场核心矛盾。业内普遍预期2026年全球 基础油市场机遇与挑战并存，行情难超2025年，未来数年基础油行业将继续承压。 2025年，亚太与中东基础油市场虽受地缘政治及关税扰动，但基本面主导行情。埃克森美孚新加坡炼厂 扩能项目成行业焦点，其2026年新增产能已通过长期合约锁定核心客户，现货市场难寻增量货源。业内 指出，若过剩货源流入现货，一类光亮油将受最大冲击。 美国市场人士的看法则相对审慎。2025年，美国基础油产量为全球二类基础油供应提供有力支撑，该态 势会延续至2026年。一位炼厂前高管表示，炼厂将维持生产至过剩产能无法消化，但全球新产能释放将 冲击美国出口。波兰、新加坡新装置投产后，欧洲、印度等美国传统出口市场竞争加剧，美国调合商对 2026年基础油市场持谨慎态度。 亚洲区域市场分化明显：中国受电动汽车普及与产业整合影响，润滑油需求增速放缓，但二类及三类基 础油装置仍有新增;印度也在推进科亚利、霍尔迪亚炼厂二类/三类基础油产能建设，预计其进口需求将 小幅回 ...

BOI指出，美元投资额相对较低，表明斯尚未吸引到足以重塑其外国直接投资格局的大型龙头投资 者。 项目获批情况表明，投资项目储备前景明显好于实际落地的资金流入。BOI在2025年共批准了146 个投资项目，总投资额达19亿美元，其中包括70个新项目和76个扩建项目。其中，预计未来将有8.96亿 美元以外资形式逐步流入，为政府设定的2026年15亿美元FDI目标奠定基础。 （原标题：斯里兰卡吸引外商直接投资10亿美元目标达成，投资者试探市场反应） 斯里兰卡《每日镜报》1月23日报道，斯2025年的外国直接投资（FDI）流入量自危机以来首次突 破10亿美元大关。然而，数据分析显示，由于流入资金仍以债务类工具为主，而非新增股权资本，因此 复苏依然不均衡。 斯投资委员会（BOI）22日表示，2025年FDI流入量将达到10.57亿美元，较2024年增长72%，略高 于其10亿美元的目标。 其中，仅有1.67亿美元（约占16%）以股权资本的形式流入，5.67亿美元为公司内部借款，1.1亿美 元为外国商业借款。再投资收益为2.13亿美元。这种结构表明，大部分流入资金并非来自新风险资本， 而是现有跨国公司资产负债表融资所驱动 ...