由于中国采购量增加以及贸易商为应对欧佩克+可能释放的更多原油供应提前调整仓位布局推高了油轮 运费，美国原油对亚洲买家的吸引力正逐步下降。 此外，贸易商还指出，中东原油市场指标正快速走弱，具体表现为迪拜原油基准价差收窄，以及阿曼原 油、穆尔班原油等品种的价差同步缩小。这意味着，与远道而来的美洲原油相比，邻近的波斯湾国家原 油价格将更具竞争力。 值得注意的是，就在欧佩克+持续向市场增加原油供应的同时，美国国内原油市场却出现了供应趋紧的 初步迹象。美国政府数据显示，该国原油库存已连续第二周下降，目前库存水平降至今年1月以来的最 低水平。 据知情贸易商透露，中国炼油企业正抓紧下单采购原油，确保货物能在年底前到港，以用尽中国政府发 放的进口配额。这一需求直接推高了超大型油轮(VLCC)的使用率，导致可用于美洲至亚洲航线的油轮 数量减少。 波罗的海交易所数据显示，当前美国至中国航线的VLCC日租金已超过7万美元。尽管这一数字低于中 东至中国航线9万美元的日租金水平，但美洲航线的耗时至少多出两周，这使得整体运输成本大幅增 加。 利用地区价差从美国向亚洲出口原油的所谓"套利贸易"已成为近几个月现货市场的显著特征。本周印度 巴 ...

Group 1 - The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member countries are expanding refining capacity to derive more value from fossil fuel resources, with refining capacity increasing by one-third since 2017, reaching 10.5 million barrels per day [1] - Gasoline production in the Gulf region has risen significantly from 1.7 million barrels per day to nearly 2.4 million barrels per day, with gasoline exports doubling to 654,000 barrels per day [1] - The traditional pricing mechanism based on Singapore market prices is becoming less relevant as Singapore now accounts for only 7% of the Gulf's gasoline exports, prompting the need for a new pricing mechanism to better reflect local market fundamentals [1] Group 2 - The new pricing mechanism called "MEBOB" has been introduced, which corresponds to the European "EBOB" and the American "RBOB," positioning the Middle East as a new oil trading hub [2] - MEBOB aims to reflect the value of Gulf refined products and is seen as a recognition of the structural changes in the global energy market [2] Group 3 - The UAE has initiated the Murban crude oil trading to compete with Brent and WTI, launching Murban crude futures contracts to establish an alternative benchmark for Middle Eastern crude [3] - Murban crude is characterized by its low sulfur content of 0.78% and an API gravity of 39.9 degrees, with a significant infrastructure project underway to enhance its export capabilities [3] - A large underground storage facility is being constructed in Fujairah, with a total capacity of 42 million barrels, representing the largest of its kind globally, and is expected to be operational after delays due to the pandemic [3] Group 4 - The trading volume of Murban crude futures has surged, with the second quarter of 2024 seeing a record trading volume of 1.5 billion barrels, more than double the growth rate from the beginning of the year [4] - June 2024 set new trading records with an average daily trading volume of 31 million barrels and a single-day peak of 573,000 contracts, indicating Murban crude's emergence as a globally influential pricing benchmark [4]

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - SC crude oil's main contract closed up 1.10%, at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - In June, US crude oil production hit a record high, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products rose to the highest level since October 2024. US LNG production increased by 12,000 barrels per day, reaching 748,400 barrels per day [1] - Saudi Aramco and Iraq's SOMO suspended oil sales to Nayara Energy. Nayara's August crude imports rely entirely on Russia due to payment difficulties caused by sanctions [1] - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to keep oil production unchanged this weekend, halting previous production increases. IEA warns of significant supply surplus by year - end [1] - Indian refiners are buying more US crude oil, which may help reduce India's trade surplus with the US [1] - ONGC executives say they'll keep buying Russian oil if prices are right [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - Saudi Arabia is artificially controlling oil shipments. Despite Dubai prices being strong, eastern refiners have more options due to increased Latin American supply and open arbitrage windows [2] Group 3: Strategy - Short - term, oil prices will trade in a range; medium - term, bearish allocation is recommended [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risks include US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [4] - Upside risks include US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions from Middle East conflicts [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, crude oil showed a trend of rising first and then falling. Trump's extreme pressure on Russia triggered supply concerns and pushed up the geopolitical premium, but the implementation of subsequent measures remains to be observed. In the second half, due to the over - rise correction of the market, the non - farm payrolls data in the US falling short of expectations and the downward revision of the previous value, the fear of economic recession reignited, the VIX index soared, and the capital flight impacted the market, leading to the decline of crude oil. The result of the OPEC+ meeting was in line with expectations. It will increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September and end the first - stage production restoration ahead of schedule. The subsequent policy will be discussed at the meeting on September 7. Recently, attention should be paid to the macro - sentiment, tracking the VIX index and the US stocks [4] Market Trends - OPEC+ agreed to continue significant production increases in September and exit the current round of production cuts one year ahead of schedule. Eight member countries of OPEC+ reached a resolution to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in September through a video conference, marking that the organization completed the current - stage supply restoration plan one year ahead of schedule and fully exited the 2.2 million barrels per day production cut agreement implemented by eight member countries since 2023, including the UAE's additional phased production increase quota. Another voluntary production cut agreement of about 1.66 million barrels per day will be re - evaluated by the end of December. This production increase marks a strategic shift of OPEC and its partners from defending oil prices to releasing production capacity, effectively suppressing the impact of geopolitical tensions and seasonal demand peaks on oil prices [4] - As the oil prices in the Middle East rise, Asia will increase its imports of US WTI crude oil in the fourth quarter. Due to the strong demand for high - sulfur crude oil in Asia, the prices of Dubai crude oil and Murban crude oil, the benchmark prices of Middle Eastern crude oil, have risen this month, narrowing the price difference with the low - sulfur light US WTI crude oil. The WTI arbitrage window for Asia has been wide open in the past week, especially for ships arriving in early November. US crude oil producer Occidental Petroleum has sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiner Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for delivery in October [5] - The Iranian foreign minister stated that the US needs to compensate for the losses in the conflict before the nuclear negotiations can restart. Iran has set new conditions for restarting the nuclear negotiations with the Trump administration. The US must compensate Iran for the losses caused during the Iran - Israel conflict last month. Iran will not agree to resume negotiations without addressing these issues [5] - The annual rate of the US core PCE price index in June was 2.8%, higher than the expected 2.70%, and the previous value was revised from 2.70% to 2.8%. The monthly rate of the core PCE price index in June was 0.3%, in line with expectations and higher than the previous value of 0.20%. The overall PCE index including food and energy rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year, respectively higher than the market expectations of 0.23% and 2.5%. The personal consumption expenditure price index rose 0.3% month - on - month, pushing the annual rate to 2.6%, the highest level since February. Weak spending is due to the cooling of the labor market. Real disposable income remained flat after falling in May, and wages and salaries hardly increased. The July employment report is expected to show a continued slowdown in recruitment and a slight rise in the unemployment rate. The savings rate remained at 4.5%. After the data was released, the spot gold fluctuated slightly in the short term, and the US dollar index rose slightly in the short term [6] - The total number of US oil rigs in the week ending August 1 was 410, compared with 415 in the previous week. As of the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in Brent crude oil on the Intercontinental Exchange increased by 33,959 lots to 261,352 lots. In the week ending July 29, speculators' net long positions in NYMEX WTI crude oil increased by 1,752 lots to 87,840 lots [7] EIA Weekly Inventory - As of the week ending July 25, the total US crude oil inventory including strategic reserves was 829.432 million barrels, an increase of 7.94 million barrels from the previous week; the US commercial crude oil inventory was 426.691 million barrels, an increase of 7.7 million barrels from the previous week; the total US gasoline inventory was 228.405 million barrels, a decrease of 2.73 million barrels from the previous week; the distillate oil inventory was 113.536 million barrels, an increase of 3.64 million barrels from the previous week. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, was 22.553 million barrels, an increase of 0.69 million barrels. The US strategic petroleum reserve was 402.741 million barrels, an increase of 0.24 million barrels. The crude oil inventory was 1.47% lower than the same period last year and 6% lower than the average of the past five years; the gasoline inventory was 2.08% higher than the same period last year and 1% lower than the average of the past five years; the distillate oil inventory was 10.49% lower than the same period last year and 16% lower than the average of the past five years [8] - As of the week ending July 25, the US daily crude oil production was 13.314 million barrels, an increase of 41,000 barrels from the previous week and an increase of 14,000 barrels from the same period last year; the total processing volume of US refineries was 16.911 million barrels per day on average, a decrease of 25,000 barrels from the previous week; the refinery utilization rate was 95.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous week [8] - The increase in the US EIA crude oil inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending January 31, 2025. The decrease in the US EIA gasoline inventory in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending April 25, 2025. The increase in domestic crude oil production in the week ending July 25 was the largest since the week ending March 7, 2025 [9]

Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - As the summer power generation demand declines, Middle - East crude oil exports will gradually increase. With the end of summer, the power generation demand in the Middle East and the peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere will decline. Starting from September, due to Saudi Arabia's production increase and reduced direct - burning of crude oil for power generation, the growth of Middle - East crude oil exports will be more obvious. The current export volume has exceeded 17 million barrels per day and is expected to increase to 18 million barrels per day before October [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 74 cents to $69.26 per barrel, a decline of 1.06%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for September delivery fell 71 cents to $72.53 per barrel, a decline of 0.97%. The main SC crude oil contract closed down 0.71% at 528 yuan per barrel [1] - Iran has set new conditions for restarting nuclear talks with the Trump administration. The Iranian Foreign Minister said the US must compensate for the losses during the Iran - Israel conflict last month, explain its attack during the talks, and guarantee no similar attacks in the future [1] - Indian state - owned refiners stopped buying Russian oil last week due to reduced discounts and Trump's tariff threats [1] - President Trump said the fastest way to end the Gaza humanitarian crisis is for Hamas to surrender and release hostages [1] - In the fourth quarter, Asia is expected to increase imports of US WTI crude oil because the price increase of Middle - East crude oil has opened an arbitrage window. Western Oil has sold WTI crude oil to Japan's Taiyo Oil at a premium of about $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil quote for October delivery [1] Investment Logic - As the end of summer approaches, the power generation demand in the Middle East and the peak travel season in the Northern Hemisphere will decline. Starting from September, due to Saudi Arabia's production increase and reduced direct - burning of crude oil for power generation, the growth of Middle - East crude oil exports will be more obvious. The current export volume has exceeded 17 million barrels per day and is expected to increase to 18 million barrels per day before October, unless Saudi Arabia deliberately controls exports. The impact of the maintenance of the Upper Zakum oil field in the UAE is limited [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Iranian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle - East conflicts [3]

Core Viewpoint - Asian countries are expected to increase imports of US WTI crude oil in Q4 due to rising Middle Eastern oil prices, which have created an arbitrage opportunity [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The price of Middle Eastern crude oil, specifically Dubai and Murban benchmarks, has risen, leading to a narrowing price gap with low-sulfur light US WTI crude oil [1] - Strong demand for high-sulfur crude oil in Asia has contributed to the increased interest in US WTI imports [1] Group 2: Trade Activity - A notable arbitrage window for WTI crude oil has been open for Asian markets, particularly for shipments arriving in early November [1] - Western oil producers, such as Occidental Petroleum, have sold WTI crude oil to Japanese refiners like Taiyo Oil at a premium of approximately $3.50 per barrel over the October Dubai crude oil price [1]

Energy - Abu Dhabi National Oil Company has revised its August Murban crude oil export forecast down from 1.77 million barrels per day to 1.705 million barrels per day [2] - The U.S. has proposed allowing Iran to conduct low-level uranium enrichment activities, while Iranian officials describe the U.S. nuclear agreement proposal as "incoherent and disconnected" [2] - The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating India's Adani Group for allegedly importing Iranian liquefied petroleum gas, which the group denies [3] Metals and Mining - Goldman Sachs has raised its aluminum price forecast for the second half of 2025 to $2,280 per ton [3] - Gold prices are nearing historical highs, with experts suggesting a significant possibility of surpassing $3,500 per ounce [3] Trade and Agriculture - Vietnamese companies are set to sign a memorandum of understanding to purchase $2 billion worth of U.S. agricultural products [3] - EU trade officials are scheduled to meet, with the EU reiterating warnings regarding retaliatory tariffs [3] - The India-EU free trade agreement is progressing, with nearly half of the topics reaching consensus, and an agreement expected within the year [3]

Group 1 - Asian buyers are aggressively purchasing 10 million barrels of Murban crude oil, leading to a significant shift in demand dynamics [1] - The surge in demand for Murban crude is causing U.S. crude oil to be sidelined in the Asian market [1] - The competitive pricing and quality of Murban crude are key factors driving this trend among Asian buyers [1]