021-60635736 期货从业资格号：F3033782 投资咨询证书号：Z0014484 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 报告类型 焦炭焦煤日评 日期 2025 年 7 月 18 日 黑色金属研究团队 研究员：翟贺攀 zhaihepan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：聂嘉怡 研究员：冯泽仁 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | | | | 表1：7月17日焦炭焦煤期货主力合约价格、成交及持仓情况（单位：元/吨、手、亿元） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 代码 | 前收 盘价 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 持仓量 变化 | 资金流 入流出 | | J2509 | 1494. ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent "anti-involution" policy in China is not equivalent to "capacity reduction" but aims to correct market failures and establish fair competition, thereby stimulating innovation and promoting high-quality economic development [1][2][3] Industry Overview - The "anti-involution" initiative has been initiated in industries such as photovoltaic, steel, automotive, and cement, with a focus on enhancing product quality and orderly exit of outdated capacity [1][2] - The current supply-demand imbalance is primarily due to insufficient demand rather than significant capacity expansion in most industries [2][3] Policy Implications - The CF40 research suggests that the focus should remain on expanding effective domestic demand rather than solely on capacity reduction [1][3] - Future policy directions should shift from subsidizing industries to subsidizing consumption [1][2] Industry Performance Analysis - The analysis indicates that the "new three types" of industries, including electric machinery, automotive manufacturing, and computer communications, have significantly higher revenue shares compared to previous capacity reduction industries [8][9] - In 2023, the capital expenditure growth rate for the "new three types" industries was 21.0%, contributing 2.78 percentage points to the overall manufacturing capital expenditure growth rate [8][9] Potential Capacity Reduction Industries - Based on the decision tree model, seven industries are identified as potentially facing capacity reduction, including coal mining, petroleum and coal processing, and automotive manufacturing [4][5] - The cumulative PPI change, contribution to PPI growth, and ROA are critical dimensions for assessing potential capacity reduction [4][5] Demand and Supply Dynamics - The automotive industry faces a core issue of unmet potential demand rather than absolute capacity overcapacity, with potential annual sales estimated at 43.26 million vehicles by 2030 [18][19] - The actual depreciation scale of vehicles has been significantly lower than potential levels, indicating suppressed demand [18][19] Conclusion on New Industries - The "new three types" industries are characterized by high capital and technology intensity, and their capacity should be analyzed on a case-by-case basis rather than assuming a general overcapacity [9][19]

Core Viewpoint - In June, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a robust growth trend in the industrial sector [1] Group 1: Industrial Growth - In June, the industrial added value increased by 0.50% month-on-month, while the growth for the first half of the year was 6.4% year-on-year [1] - By sector, mining increased by 6.1%, manufacturing by 7.4%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 1.8% in June [1] - State-owned enterprises saw a 5.7% increase, joint-stock enterprises 7.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan-invested enterprises 5.5%, and private enterprises 6.2% in June [1] Group 2: Industry Performance - Out of 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in added value in June [2] - Notable growth sectors included coal mining and washing (6.5%), agricultural and sideline food processing (8.2%), and automotive manufacturing (11.4%) [2] - The electronics manufacturing sector also performed well, with computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing growing by 11.0% [2] Group 3: Product Output - In June, 379 out of 623 major industrial products saw year-on-year output growth [3] - Steel production reached 12.784 million tons (up 1.8%), while cement production fell by 5.3% to 15.547 million tons [3] - Notably, new energy vehicle production increased by 18.8% to 1.234 million units, contributing to an overall automotive production increase of 8.8% [3] - The industrial enterprises' product sales rate was 94.3%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points year-on-year, with export delivery value reaching 1.3676 trillion yuan, a nominal increase of 4.0% [3]

Key Points - The article provides an overview of the dividend progress of constituent stocks in major indices as of July 15, 2025, highlighting the number of companies at various stages of dividend declaration and implementation [1][3][9] - It compares the dividend yields across different industries, noting that coal, banking, and steel sectors have the highest yields [4] - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices are detailed, with the Shanghai 50 Index showing a realized yield of 1.80% and a remaining yield of 0.46% [7][8] - The article tracks the annualized premium/discount of stock index futures, indicating the market sentiment and risk appetite of institutional investors [2][14][15] Dividend Progress of Constituent Stocks - As of July 15, 2025, the dividend progress for major indices is as follows: - Shanghai 50 Index: 0 companies in the proposal stage, 7 in the decision stage, 5 in the implementation stage, 35 have paid dividends, and 3 will not pay dividends [1] - CSI 300 Index: 2 in the proposal stage, 51 in the decision stage, 31 in the implementation stage, 190 have paid dividends, and 26 will not pay dividends [1] - CSI 500 Index: 1 in the proposal stage, 51 in the decision stage, 17 in the implementation stage, 354 have paid dividends, and 77 will not pay dividends [1] - CSI 1000 Index: 1 in the proposal stage, 54 in the decision stage, 44 in the implementation stage, 691 have paid dividends, and 210 will not pay dividends [1] Industry Dividend Yield Comparison - The article presents a statistical analysis of the current dividend yields of stocks with disclosed dividend proposals, ranking coal, banking, and steel industries as the top three [4] Realized and Remaining Dividend Yields - The realized and remaining dividend yields for major indices as of July 15, 2025, are as follows: - Shanghai 50 Index: Realized yield of 1.80%, remaining yield of 0.46% [7] - CSI 300 Index: Realized yield of 1.35%, remaining yield of 0.53% [7] - CSI 500 Index: Realized yield of 1.09%, remaining yield of 0.20% [7] - CSI 1000 Index: Realized yield of 0.83%, remaining yield of 0.12% [7] Stock Index Futures Premium/Discount Tracking - As of July 15, 2025, the annualized premiums/discounts for major stock index futures are: - IH main contract: annualized discount of 0.44% [2] - IF main contract: annualized discount of 2.48% [2] - IC main contract: annualized discount of 11.78% [2] - IM main contract: annualized discount of 15.26% [2]

Core Insights - The capacity utilization rate of the automotive manufacturing industry in the second quarter of 2025 is reported at 71.3% [1] - Other industries have varying capacity utilization rates, with the highest being in the black metal smelting and rolling processing industry at 80.8% [1] - The lowest capacity utilization is observed in the non-metal mineral products industry at 62.3% [1] Industry Summaries - Coal mining and washing industry: 69.3% capacity utilization [1] - Food manufacturing industry: 69.1% capacity utilization [1] - Textile industry: 77.8% capacity utilization [1] - Chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing: 71.9% capacity utilization [1] - General equipment manufacturing: 78.3% capacity utilization [1] - Specialized equipment manufacturing: 76.5% capacity utilization [1] - Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing: 73.5% capacity utilization [1] - Computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing: 77.3% capacity utilization [1] - Non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing: 77.7% capacity utilization [1]

Group 1 - The industrial capacity utilization rate for Q2 2025 is reported at 74.0%, showing a decrease of 0.9 percentage points compared to the same period last year [4] - The mining industry capacity utilization rate stands at 72.7%, down by 3.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The manufacturing sector's capacity utilization rate is 74.3%, reflecting a decline of 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 2 - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry has a capacity utilization rate of 71.5%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to last year [4] - In the coal mining and washing industry, the capacity utilization rate is 69.3%, down by 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The petroleum and natural gas extraction industry shows a high capacity utilization rate of 90.9%, with a slight decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 3 - The food manufacturing industry has a capacity utilization rate of 69.1%, which is an increase of 0.3 percentage points compared to last year [4] - The textile industry reports a capacity utilization rate of 77.8%, down by 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry has a capacity utilization rate of 71.9%, reflecting a decrease of 4.5 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 4 - The black metal smelting and rolling processing industry has a capacity utilization rate of 80.8%, which is an increase of 1.1 percentage points compared to last year [4] - The non-metallic mineral products industry shows a capacity utilization rate of 62.3%, down by 1.9 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The automotive manufacturing industry reports a capacity utilization rate of 71.3%, reflecting a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous year [4] Group 5 - The electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry has a capacity utilization rate of 73.5%, down by 1.2 percentage points compared to last year [5] - The computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing industry shows a capacity utilization rate of 77.3%, which is an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year [5] - The overall survey covers approximately 110,000 industrial enterprises, including both large and medium-sized enterprises [6]

Economic Overview - In June, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from negative to positive growth, with food prices showing a reduced decline and non-food prices slightly rising [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.6% year-on-year, with a widening decline, indicating that living material prices performed better than production material prices [1] - The average CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, while the average PPI was -2.9%, reflecting a low overall price level in the domestic market [1] External Factors - International commodity prices have decreased, creating downward pressure on domestic prices, particularly affecting industries related to oil and gas, with oil and gas extraction prices down by 12.6% year-on-year and fuel prices down by 10.4% [1] - The rise of anti-globalization sentiments and "reciprocal tariffs" from the U.S. has led to increased trade barriers, impacting China's export industries and potentially leading to further price declines in related sectors [2] Internal Factors - The acceleration of energy structure transformation and the increase in green energy have contributed to lower energy prices, with coal mining and washing prices dropping by 21.8% year-on-year due to reduced demand for thermal power [2] - Intense market competition in certain industries, particularly in manufacturing, has led to price suppression, with many companies engaging in price wars due to product homogeneity [3] Structural Price Changes - Policies aimed at reducing "involution competition" have helped alleviate overcapacity in certain sectors, leading to a narrowing of price declines in industries such as automotive manufacturing and lithium battery production [3] - Consumption-boosting policies have positively impacted certain consumer goods sectors, resulting in price increases for items like arts and crafts, sports goods, and smart consumer products [4] - High-tech industries related to smart manufacturing and digital economy are experiencing rapid growth, with product prices showing a year-on-year increase, indicating a promising future for economic transformation [5]

Group 1 - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned positive in June, increasing by 0.1% year-on-year after four consecutive months of decline, primarily driven by a recovery in industrial consumer goods prices [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in consumer demand [1][3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, reflecting a broader trend of price reductions in various industrial sectors [1][4] Group 2 - The decrease in PPI is attributed to seasonal price declines in raw materials, increased green energy production leading to lower energy prices, and downward pressure on prices in export-oriented industries due to a slowing global trade environment [4][5] - The cumulative CPI for the first half of the year was -0.1%, indicating weak domestic price levels and insufficient consumer demand, which provides ample policy space for further monetary easing and fiscal stimulus [3][5] - The decline in industrial prices is exacerbated by overcapacity in several sectors, prompting discussions on capacity reduction as part of a new round of supply-side reforms [5]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline that lasted for four consecutive months [3][9] - The rise in CPI was primarily influenced by the recovery in industrial consumer goods prices, with the year-on-year decline narrowing from 1.0% to 0.5% [3][4] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.7% year-on-year, the highest increase in nearly 14 months [3][4] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month, with the decline remaining consistent with the previous month [6][7] - The year-on-year decline in PPI expanded by 0.3 percentage points, influenced by seasonal price decreases in raw material manufacturing and pressures in export-oriented industries [6][7] - Some industries showed signs of price stabilization and recovery, particularly in sectors benefiting from domestic market improvements and consumption policies [7][6] Group 3: Price Changes by Category - Food prices decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, with notable declines in pork prices by 8.5% and egg prices by 7.7% [9][17] - Non-food prices increased by 0.1% year-on-year, with service prices rising by 0.5% [9][10] - Among various categories, prices for durable goods and entertainment-related items showed increases, reflecting ongoing consumer demand [7][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market is somewhat cautious, and the black - related products are oscillating weakly. Steel prices are affected by factors such as the off - season consumption, production changes, and market sentiment. Iron ore prices are influenced by global shipments and iron - water production. Double - coking products are in a state of multi - empty game, and power coal prices are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [1][3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Categories Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils were 3061 yuan/ton and 3191 yuan/ton respectively. The national urban inventory of building materials was 375.07 million tons, a 1.29% month - on - month increase, and the hot - rolled coil inventory was 174.22 million tons, a 1.87% month - on - month increase. The national building materials transaction volume was 96,000 tons. Building materials are in the off - season, with a slight increase in production and low inventory. Plate production has a slight month - on - month increase, and the current export remains high. The market lacks speculative demand, and the weak off - season demand will suppress steel prices [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures price of iron ore weakened slightly, with the main 2509 contract closing at 731 yuan/ton, a 0.68% decline. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port remained stable. The global iron ore shipments decreased significantly this period, with a total of 29.95 million tons. The daily transaction volume of national main ports decreased by 8.14% month - on - month, and the forward spot transaction volume decreased by 13.13% month - on - month. In the short term, the iron ore price has rebounded, and the basis discount has been significantly repaired. In the long term, the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be oscillating, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Double - Coking Products - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the futures of double - coking products oscillated. The spot market of port coke was stable, and the domestic market sentiment improved. The inventory of the two ports increased slightly. The price of coking coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The expectation of domestic coal mine resumption is increasing, and the supply is expected to increase. The iron - water production of steel mills is at a high level but shows a downward trend. The supply - demand of coking coal has improved slightly. The profit of coke enterprises is not good, but the downstream steel demand has improved. In the short term, the supply - demand of coke has improved slightly, and in the long term, it is still in a relatively loose pattern [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate in unilateral trading, while there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Steam Coal - **Market Analysis**: The price of steam coal in the main production areas oscillated weakly. The procurement of chemical and platform large customers is stable, and some coal mines have balanced production and sales. The supply has basically recovered at the beginning of the month, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The upstream shipping cost at the port has increased, and there is a structural shortage of goods. The downstream rigid demand procurement has been completed in stages, and the coal consumption is expected to increase with the expansion of high - temperature areas. The high - calorie Australian coal has a price inversion with the domestic winning bid price, and the low - calorie Indonesian coal has obvious cost - performance advantages [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy is provided [8]