【一周一议】 吉林化纤宣布上调湿法 3k 碳纤维价格。5 月 13 日，吉林化纤发布调价通知，受低空经济拉动，无人机需求，出口爆 增，湿法碳纤维良好的易加工性影响，公司旗下的湿法 3k 碳纤维供不应求，即日起各牌号产品每吨分别上涨 10000 元。碳纤维复合材料由于其①质轻且强度高，②耐腐蚀性，③耐高温性，④抗电磁干扰等优异性能，已成为低空经济 飞行器的核心轻量化材料。整体而言，目前碳纤维复合材料约占无人机结构总质量的 60-80%。根据中国低空经济联盟 发布的《低空经济发展趋势报告》预测，到 2030 年我国 eVTOL 市场保有量有望突破 10 万架，根据我们测算，2030 年 我国 eVTOL 行业拉动碳纤维增量约 2.04 万吨（非单年拉动量，10 万架为 2030 年市场保有量）。2024 年我国碳纤维需 求为 6.03 万吨，有望成为碳纤维下一个关键增长极。同时，低空经济增量政策持续出台，如 5 月 13 日，四川公布《支 持低空经济发展的若干政策措施》，省发改委主任代永波表示，四川将每年统筹安排 3 亿元省级资金，专项支持低空 经济发展。 关注"一带一路"进展。本周"一带一路"热点事件不断，1） ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [4] Core Views - Carbon Fiber: The T300 large tow is currently at a stage of bottoming out, but there is a possibility of continued price competition due to rapid capacity release by some companies. However, the number of companies in the precursor segment is limited, making significant price drops unlikely. It is recommended to focus on Jilin Carbon Valley and other companies in this sector [3]. - Electronic Materials: The demand for foldable smartphones remains high despite a downturn in consumer electronics. The continuous decline in industry price bands is expected to further stimulate downstream demand, creating a positive cycle. The report remains optimistic about the penetration of foldable smartphones over the next 3-5 years and highlights the potential for domestic substitution in upstream materials like photoresists and high-frequency high-speed CCL. Key recommendations include Shiming Technology and Kaisheng Technology [3]. - New Energy Materials: In the photovoltaic sector, downstream demand continues to grow rapidly, but the expansion of various segments in the supply chain suggests a need for market clearing. In wind energy, offshore wind power is overcoming obstacles and expanding, with a high concentration in the wind turbine blade segment. The report recommends focusing on Times New Materials [4]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The new materials index increased by 0.6%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.5 percentage points. Notable performances include the carbon fiber index up by 2.9% and the coating ink index up by 3.1% [11]. - Among the new materials sector, 49% of stocks achieved positive returns, with standout performers including Yuzhong Sanxia A (+50.6%) and Jilin Chemical Fiber (+24.5%) [11]. Key Focus Areas - Price Increase: On May 13, Jilin Chemical Fiber announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet 3K carbon fiber products, driven by demand from the low-altitude economy and drones [8]. - Upcoming Events: Huawei's new Harmony OS computer is set to be released on May 19, 2025 [8]. Key Tracking Targets - The report tracks key companies in the carbon fiber and electronic materials sectors, providing insights into their market performance and future prospects [10].

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【一周一议】 吉林化纤宣布上调湿法 3k 碳纤维价格。5 月 13 日，吉林化纤发布调价通知，受低空经济拉动，无人机需求，出口爆 增，湿法碳纤维良好的易加工性影响，公司旗下的湿法 3k 碳纤维供不应求，即日起各牌号产品每吨分别上涨 10000 元。碳纤维复合材料由于其①质轻且强度高，②耐腐蚀性，③耐高温性，④抗电磁干扰等优异性能，已成为低空经济 飞行器的核心轻量化材料。整体而言，目前碳纤维复合材料约占无人机结构总质量的 60-80%。根据中国低空经济联盟 发布的《低空经济发展趋势报告》预测，到 2030 年我国 eVTOL 市场保有量有望突破 10 万架，根据我们测算，2030 年 我国 eVTOL 行业拉动碳纤维增量约 2.04 万吨（非单年拉动量，10 万架为 2030 年市场保有量）。2024 年我国碳纤维需 求为 6.03 万吨，有望成为碳纤维下一个关键增长极。同时，低空经济增量政策持续出台，如 5 月 13 日，四川公布《支 持低空经济发展的若干政策措施》，省发改委主任代永波表示，四川将每年统筹安排 3 亿元省级资金，专项支持低空 经济发展。 关注"一带一路"进展。本周"一带一路"热点事件不断，1） ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended," indicating a favorable outlook for the industry fundamentals, with expectations that the industry index will outperform the benchmark index [39]. Core Insights - The carbon fiber industry is expected to see a recovery in demand, with significant growth projected for 2024 and 2025, driven by sectors such as wind energy, military, and new technologies in electric vehicles [5][34]. - The price of carbon fiber has shown signs of recovery, with notable increases in various grades, suggesting that prices have likely bottomed out [6][9]. - The global demand for carbon fiber in 2023 was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 14.8% year-on-year, marking the first negative growth since 1995. However, demand is expected to rebound to 156,000 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 35.7% [13][15]. Summary by Sections Price Recovery - Carbon fiber prices have been steadily increasing since the end of 2023, with a notable 5% rise in the price of wet 3K carbon fiber, now priced at 200-220 RMB per kilogram. The T300 12K carbon fiber price has rebounded to 95 RMB per kilogram, a 35.7% increase from the end of 2023 [5][6]. Demand Forecast - The global carbon fiber demand is projected to reach 156,000 tons in 2024, with a 120% increase in demand from the wind energy sector and a 51.6% increase from the sports and leisure market. In China, demand is expected to grow by 21.7% to 84,000 tons [13][15][16]. Supply and Capacity - China's operational carbon fiber capacity is estimated at 150,000 tons in 2024, with an 8.5% year-on-year increase. Despite a low utilization rate of 45%, the expansion phase of carbon fiber production appears to be concluding, with a concentration of capacity among the top five producers reaching 73% [23][27]. Traditional and Emerging Applications - Wind energy remains the largest application for carbon fiber, accounting for over 28% of usage. The demand in traditional sectors is expected to grow rapidly, supported by a significant increase in wind power project tenders and military orders [30][34].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the carbon fiber industry, focusing on Jilin Chemical Fiber and its pricing strategies in response to market dynamics and demand growth [1][3][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Price Increase by Jilin Chemical Fiber**: The company has raised carbon fiber prices to address increased export demand and align with the sales peak of carbon fiber woven fabrics and products. The self-use ratio of carbon fiber is expected to reach 70% by 2025, with 40%-45% of that being 3K carbon fiber [1][3]. - **Industry-Wide Price Adjustments**: Other companies in the carbon fiber sector are also planning price increases, with a consensus reached to raise prices by 2-5 yuan per kilogram. This adjustment is already being implemented despite the lack of formal announcements [1][5]. - **Market Price Trends**: The carbon fiber products market has entered a consolidation phase post-Spring Festival, with current prices around 210,000 yuan per ton. However, due to capacity releases from various manufacturers, prices may drop to 190,000-200,000 yuan per ton after July [1][8]. - **Production Capacity and Utilization**: The overall operating rate in the carbon fiber industry is around 60%-70%, which is insufficient to support a price rebound. Jilin Chemical Fiber operates at full capacity, while competitors like Zhongfu Shenying are experiencing lower utilization rates [3][11]. - **Future Demand Projections**: The demand for carbon fiber in China is projected to grow by approximately 20% in 2025, reaching between 70,000 to 75,000 tons. This growth is driven by increased orders from Jilin Chemical Fiber and international capital entering the market [3][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Financial Performance**: Jilin Chemical Fiber reported a sales figure of 320 million yuan for 2024 but is still operating at a loss. The price increase is aimed at improving profitability [4]. - **Impact of Trade Dynamics**: The U.S.-China trade war has led to a reduction in imports, prompting domestic demand to rise as China substitutes some imported carbon fiber. Jilin Chemical Fiber exports about 30% of its products to countries like South Korea, Japan, and India [3][19]. - **Inventory and Financial Health**: The carbon fiber industry is facing inventory pressures, with Jilin Chemical Fiber holding 8,000 to 10,000 tons of finished goods and 7,000 to 8,000 tons of carbon fiber inventory. The overall market profitability is around 10%, with long credit cycles affecting cash flow and operational rates [11][12]. - **Emerging Markets**: The low-altitude economy, particularly the drone industry, is expected to demand between 8,000 to 10,000 tons of carbon fiber by 2025, with military drones primarily using T700 and T800 grades, while civilian drones use T400 grade [14][20]. Conclusion - The carbon fiber industry is navigating through a complex landscape of rising demand, pricing strategies, and operational challenges. Jilin Chemical Fiber is positioning itself to capitalize on these trends while addressing its financial performance and market share amidst competitive pressures and changing trade dynamics [22].

据上证报5月14日报道，吉林化纤集团有限责任公司已正式向客户下发调价函。调价函显示，受低空经 济拉动，无人机需求，出口爆增，湿法碳纤维良好的易加工性影响，吉林化纤旗下的湿法3k碳纤维供不 应求，即日起各牌号产品每吨分别上涨10000元，落款时间为5月13日。 光大证券表示，碳纤维制备工艺和设备对碳纤维的生产至关重要。然而，由于碳纤维的制备工艺流程复 杂，工艺参数较多，积累这些参数需要很长的周期，同时海外企业对该类设备一直实施封锁禁售。在低 空经济快速发展的当下，国内碳纤维需求也将得到提振，对于核心关键设备的需求也将同步增长。基于 需求本身以及供应链安全的考虑，国产碳纤维设备企业将在此背景下受益。 上证报援引相关研究机构观点称，碳纤维复合材料由于其质轻且强度高、耐腐蚀性、耐高温性、抗电磁 干扰等优异性能，已成为低空经济飞行器的核心轻量化材料。2024年我国碳纤维需求为6.03万吨，有望 成为碳纤维下一个关键增长极。 公司方面，据上证报表示， 吉林化纤：公司是全球碳纤维产业领军者，聚焦碳纤维研发与产业化，成功打破国外技术封锁，已形 成?"原丝一碳丝一复材"全产业链。 中复神鹰：公司是国内碳纤维行业首家科创板上市公 ...

Group 1: Financial Technology - The Ministry of Science and Technology, People's Bank of China, and other regulatory bodies issued policies to accelerate the construction of a technology finance system, establishing a "National Venture Capital Guiding Fund" to support technological innovation and the growth of tech enterprises [1][6] - The policies aim to enhance the financial service capabilities for technological innovation, promoting the transformation of technological achievements and industrial upgrades [1][6] Group 2: Carbon Fiber - Jilin Chemical Fiber Group has announced a price increase of 10,000 yuan per ton for its wet-process 3k carbon fiber products due to surging demand from the low-altitude economy and drones [2][6] - The domestic demand for carbon fiber is expected to rise significantly, with a projected demand of 60,300 tons in 2024, marking it as a key growth area for the industry [2][6] Group 3: Rare Earth - China Rare Earth announced plans to leverage its operational advantages for internal and external asset integration and restructuring to promote sustainable development in the rare earth industry [3][6] - Analysts suggest that rare earth prices are at a cyclical low, with supply concentration expected to drive prices upward, particularly benefiting domestic deep processing enterprises [3][6] Group 4: Overseas Warehousing - Following the reduction of tariffs between China and the U.S., there is a surge in demand for logistics services, leading to a "shipping rush" as companies prepare for potential trade policy uncertainties [4][9] - Overseas warehousing has become a strategic measure to mitigate tariff costs and enhance logistics efficiency, allowing businesses to stockpile goods in response to fluctuating tariffs [4][9] Group 5: Space Computing - China successfully launched the first space computing constellation, marking the beginning of a new era in global "space computing" [5][6] - The "Star Computing" plan aims to establish a global integrated computing network through a constellation of 2,800 satellites, enhancing capabilities in AI and other advanced technologies [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report provides an "In-Line" investment rating for the Chinese industrial sector, indicating a balanced outlook on investment opportunities within the industry [10]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of investing in emerging industries in China that possess structural competitive advantages, particularly in the context of challenges such as debt, deflation, demographic changes, and global multipolarity [3][8]. - It identifies significant opportunities in advanced supply chains and manufacturing, highlighting the potential for growth in sectors such as machinery, automotive, new energy, semiconductors, aerospace, artificial intelligence, software, pharmaceuticals, humanoid robotics, and eVTOL [4][30]. - The report outlines a framework consisting of six key elements that support industry upgrades, which include R&D investment, talent development, capital influx, government policy support, market demand, and supply chain robustness [31][34]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report rates the Chinese industrial sector as "In-Line," suggesting a cautious but optimistic view on investment prospects [10]. Key Industry Opportunities - The report identifies 28 stocks that are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing industrial upgrades and emerging trends in China, focusing on companies that are either upstream in the supply chain or are key enablers in sectors like automation and AI [4][42]. Six Key Elements Framework 1. **R&D Investment**: China’s R&D expenditure is primarily concentrated in manufacturing, with a notable increase in investment in technology and emerging industries [15][31]. 2. **Talent Pool**: China produces the largest number of engineering graduates globally, with a focus on strategic emerging fields such as AI and data science [31][32]. 3. **Capital Influx**: Significant capital has flowed into advanced manufacturing sectors, particularly semiconductors and machinery, with a total of approximately RMB 20 trillion from 2021 to 2024 [32][33]. 4. **Government Support**: The Chinese government has implemented various strategic initiatives to support key industries, including AI, semiconductors, and aerospace, enhancing the investment landscape [33][34]. 5. **Market Demand**: The report highlights a positive feedback loop between rising demand and innovation, particularly in consumer electronics, automotive, and electrical machinery [34]. 6. **Supply Chain Development**: The report discusses the importance of moving up the value chain, particularly in sectors with low localization rates and strong downstream demand [34][35]. Emerging Industry Focus - The report underscores the potential of artificial intelligence to drive significant economic value in China, projecting that AI could contribute RMB 11 trillion to the labor value by 2035, representing 5.5% of nominal GDP [37][38]. - It also notes the expected growth in sectors such as autonomous vehicles and industrial AI applications, which are anticipated to enhance productivity and operational efficiency across various industries [39].

【DT新材料】 获悉， 4月28日， 江苏恒神股份有限公司 发布公告称，根据公司战略发展与项目建设的需要，公司拟对2万吨/年高性能碳纤维生产基 地项目一期追加投资2.1亿元，一期项目投资由13.2亿元增加至 15.3亿元 。 据悉，此次增资是为确保公司2万吨/年高性能碳纤维生产基地项目投资的稳健性，落地产能的先进性以及项目建设与业务开拓的匹配性， 一期拟先建 设 5,000吨产能 ，原13.2亿元投资包括一条干喷湿纺碳化线及一条大丝束碳化线，以及配套原丝生产线及相应的公用工程设施等。 恒神股份表示，本次对外投资符合公司战略发展规划与项目建设的实际需求，有利于增强公司综合竞争力，提升经济效益。 说明： 本文部分素材来自于 中国国际复合材料展览会及 网络公开信息，由作者重新编写，系作者个人观点，本平台发布仅为了传达一种不同观点，不代表对该观点赞同或支持。如果有任何问题， 请联系我们：15355132586（微信同号） 现统筹考虑整体建设与分期实施之间的经济性和合理性，拟一次性建成配套 10,000吨产能 的总图运输与公辅装置并增加二期土地的部分费用，故公司 拟对2万吨/年高性能碳纤维生产基地项目一期追 加投资2. ...