牛肉批发市场周均价环比"五连涨"。 4月21日，农业农村部"全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统"监测数据显示，2025年4月11日至17日的一周时间 里，牛肉批发市场周均价环比继续上涨，连续5周回暖，累计涨幅超过7%。 2025年3月以来，农产品批发市场牛肉价格走势向好，白条牛、活牛价格也回暖，多机构认为考虑供给因素影 响，2025年国内肉牛价格或迎拐点。 农业农村部发展规划司司长陈邦勋4月18日在国新办举行的新闻发布会上表示，肉牛养殖亏损逐步减轻，部分地 区在育肥环节已经扭亏为盈。农业农村部将进一步协调强化财政金融政策支持等，巩固肉牛纾困成效。 受国内供给扩张以及进口牛肉冲击影响，2023—2024年国内牛肉行情持续回落，本土肉牛养殖户和相关企业出 现经营困难。据中国畜牧业协会，2024年出栏一头肉牛的亏损额在千元以上。不过，春节后牛肉价格走势向 好。据农业农村部"全国农产品批发市场价格信息系统"监测，2025年4月11日至17日的一周时间里，牛肉批发市 场周均价为61.62元/公斤，环比上涨0.4个百分点，连续5周小幅上涨，累计涨幅超过7%。 白条牛、活牛价格也在回暖。商务部公布的白条牛批发价同样也连续五周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the beef cattle industry [1] Core Insights - The beef cattle industry in China is expected to experience a significant cycle reversal in 2025, driven by supply adjustments and import controls [6] - The domestic beef market has faced challenges due to low-priced imports, leading to a decline in local beef prices from 2023 to 2024 [3][4] - The supply of beef cattle is anticipated to clear significantly, potentially mirroring the 2019 pig cycle, as the industry is currently in a prolonged state of loss [5][6] Overview: Supply and Demand Analysis - China is the largest beef producer and consumer globally, with a production share of 13% and a consumption share of 19% in 2024 [14] - The domestic beef production is projected to be 7.8 million tons in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 1.25% over the past decade [14] - The beef cattle supply adjustment is notably slower compared to other livestock, with a typical cycle from breeding to market taking around two years [10] Import Outlook - Future beef imports are likely to decrease in volume but increase in price due to domestic supply constraints and international market dynamics [4] - The U.S. is expected to see a reduction in beef cattle inventory, which will support higher local beef prices [4][6] Domestic Supply Outlook - The domestic beef cattle farming structure is highly fragmented, with a significant number of small-scale farmers, leading to inefficiencies [20][54] - The industry is currently experiencing deep losses, with reports indicating a loss of approximately 1,600 yuan per head by late 2024 [22] Conclusion - The report is optimistic about a reversal in the beef cattle cycle starting in 2025, with potential peak prices exceeding 60 yuan/kg, leading to historically high profits for farmers [6]