今夜全球资本市场极为动荡。 美股方面，纳指大幅跳水，截至发稿跌1.42%。 贵金属方面，黄金深夜直线拉升，由跌转涨。截至发稿，现货黄金报5185.348美元/盎司，上涨0.41%。现货白银拉升收窄跌幅，现跌2.3%。 国际油价方面，布伦特原油期货上涨1.26%，报71.58美元/桶。WTI原油上涨0.76%，报65.92美元/桶。需要注意的是，从走势图看，油价几乎从底部突然 被直线拉升了起来。 据新华社援引美国《华尔街日报》26日报道，美国将在同伊朗的谈判中提出强硬要求，双方仍存在巨大分歧。 美国与伊朗第三轮间接谈判当天在瑞士日内瓦举行。报道援引美官员的话说，美方谈判代表预计将明确表示，伊方必须拆除其位于福尔道、纳坦兹和伊斯 法罕的主要核设施，并将所有剩余浓缩铀运往美国。 报道说，美方预计会坚持任何核协议都必须"永久有效"，而不是像2015年达成的伊核协议那样，其中一些限制条款会随着时间的推移逐步取消。 美国官员表示，美国坚持伊朗不能进行任何铀浓缩活动，但其谈判团队可能允许伊朗重启位于德黑兰的核反应堆，处理极低丰度浓缩铀以满足医疗需求。 报道还说，本轮谈判将聚焦核武器问题。 值得注意的是，2月26日，在瑞士日 ...

每经编辑｜陈柯名 今夜全球资本市场极为动荡。 美股方面，纳指大幅跳水，截至发稿跌1.42%。 贵金属方面，黄金深夜直线拉升，由跌转涨。截至发稿，现货黄金报5185.348美元/盎司，上涨0.41%。现货白银拉升收窄跌幅，现跌2.3%。 | < W | 伦敦金现 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SPTAUUSDOZ.IDC | | | | 5185.348 | 昨结 开盘 | | 5160.500 | | +21.038 +0.41% | 总量(kg) 0.00 现手 | | 0 | | 5205.472 最高价 | 持 仓 0 外 盘 | | 0 | | 最低价 5129.495 | 曾 仓 0 内 盘 | | 0 | | स्टेबि | 五日 日K 周K 月K 更多 | | | | 叠加 | | 均价: -- 盘口 | | 国际油价方面，布伦特原油期货上涨1.26%，报71.58美元/桶。WTI原油上涨0.76%，报65.92美元/桶。需要注意的是，从走势图看，油价几乎从底部突然 被直线拉升了起来。 | < W | | | NYMEX WTI原油 | | | Q | ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a significant drop in international prices, with a decline of over $140 in a single day, yet retail prices for gold jewelry remained stable or even increased, highlighting a disparity between wholesale and retail markets [1][4][12]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On February 25, 2026, international gold prices fell sharply from a high of $5237.71 per ounce to a low of $5093.17, marking a drop of 1.75% [1]. - In the domestic market, Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a slight decline in gold T D products and futures contracts, with prices at 1146 yuan per gram and 1148.14 yuan per gram, respectively [3]. - Despite the drop in wholesale prices, major retail brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Feng Xiang maintained prices around 1565-1570 yuan per gram, with some even increasing prices slightly [4]. Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Pricing Strategy - The demand for gold jewelry, particularly for weddings, creates a rigid consumer need that supports retail prices despite fluctuations in gold prices [4]. - Retail prices for gold jewelry include not only the cost of gold but also craftsmanship, brand premiums, and other operational costs, making them less sensitive to changes in raw material prices [4][5]. - Retailers employ a pricing strategy that does not immediately adjust to changes in raw material costs, providing consumers with price stability and reducing the frequency of price changes [5]. Group 3: Market Influences - The sharp decline in gold prices was influenced by profit-taking after a rapid increase in prices, as well as changing expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies [7][8]. - Market sentiment shifted as the probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve decreased, leading to a stronger dollar and pressure on gold prices [8]. - The disparity between wholesale and retail prices reflects the added value of branding and craftsmanship in the retail market, with wholesale prices significantly lower than retail prices [10]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Financial institutions like UBS and Goldman Sachs have set optimistic long-term price targets for gold, with UBS projecting $6200 per ounce and Goldman Sachs estimating around $5500 by year-end, indicating a complex market sentiment [10]. - The volatility observed in the gold market illustrates its dual nature as both an investment asset influenced by macroeconomic factors and a consumer good supported by cultural demand [12].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that geopolitical disturbances and tariff negotiations are reinforcing the price increase logic for mid-cap blue chips, particularly in cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and agriculture [7][10][34] - The recent geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. tariff disputes and the situation in Iran, have significantly supported precious metal prices, indicating potential price increases for strategic metals [10][12][15] - The report highlights the establishment of a national unified electricity market in China, which is expected to enhance the multi-dimensional value of electricity resources, with a timeline for market implementation set for 2027 [12][15] Group 2 - The real estate market shows stable trends during the Spring Festival, but the cyclical turning point remains to be observed, with expectations of policy easing and improvements in core city markets [13][15][34] - Consumer demand is diversifying, with increased foot traffic during the Spring Festival indicating a shift towards a consumption-driven growth model, supported by technological advancements and high levels of openness [14][15] - The report notes that mid-cap blue chips present a favorable risk profile, with overall market risks being manageable despite some fluctuations in short-term sentiment across various indices [16][34] Group 3 - The report identifies a trend of short-term volatility in hot sectors, with mid-cap blue chips showing resilience, while other sectors like basic chemicals and power grid equipment maintain stable medium-term uncertainties [21][25][31] - The analysis of trading behavior indicates a shift from strong trends to fluctuations in previously high-performing sectors, with only the power equipment sector maintaining its trend [21][25][31] - The report suggests that the overall market sentiment is gradually improving, with mid-cap indices showing slight recoveries in short-term emotions, while uncertainties in the mid-term remain relatively stable [16][25][34]

Group 1 - The investment outlook for the mainland and Hong Kong stock markets is positive, supported by factors such as a weakening US dollar, declining interest rates in the mainland, and reasonable valuation levels [1] - The focus will be on companies with strong earnings performance, particularly in the healthcare and precious metals sectors [1] - Healthcare stocks are expected to benefit from ample liquidity and government support for innovative drugs, with a preference for industry leaders and companies with late-stage drug pipelines [1] Group 2 - Schroders has recently re-engaged in commercial property loans in Hong Kong, indicating that the commercial real estate market is in a bottoming process, dependent on the overall performance of the Hong Kong economy [1]

从宏观经济、政策走向、产业变迁，2026年十大宏观趋势展望报告描绘出一幅有关2026年中国经济的全景画面。以下是十大宏观趋势的阐释。 趋势一，2026年，我国经济会持续处在 "修复式增长" 阶段，房地产的走向依旧是影响整体局面的关键变量。 报告把当前地产周期界定为 "L型" 筑底，这表明它既不会持续深度下探，也不容易出现V型反转，而是迈入一个逐步稳定的平台期。需要留意的是，房地产 已不再是最主要的经济增长动力，其政策重点正从以往的规模扩张转向构建 "新发展模式"，像保障性住房建设以及城市更新。但这并不表明地产就不再具 备重要性了，它的实际价值存在于"稳定"之中，房价预期的趋于稳定，不但能够降低对经济的直接负面影响，而且还能够修复众多家庭的财富感受以及消费 信心。从这样的一个视角来进行观察，房地产实现软着陆依旧是2026年经济稳定修复的关键基础。 趋势二，物价将会温和地回升起来，名义GDP的增速有希望从4%反弹到5%，而这对于企业利润以及居民收入得到改善而言是至关重要的。 过往几年间，我们已然习惯了处于低通胀乃至物价下行的状况之中，然而这实际上对企业的利润范围造成了挤压，并且也致使大家产生了"钱愈发难以赚 取" ...

今天指数出现分化，最高点打到4150点附近上不去，同时成交量维持在2.5万亿左右，这个时候出现了 一个非常重要的信号，叫做放量滞涨。那这种放量滞涨当中被拉回来震荡的概率增加了。 和讯投顾黄琼珂表示，同时上证指数60分钟级别也出现了一种背离的形态，那这个时候交易确实需要耐 心。第二个，行情在轮动没有绝对的主线，什么叫轮动？节后的第一天涨的最好的是什么？是石油、贵 金属，对不对？那到今天大家有没有看到石油了？看不到了，对不对？包括贵金属，那应该是在两会之 前最重要的一条线，最近也有一定的回调。 所以现在市场上轮动，昨天航天有异动，那今天唉Ai科技方向又有一个什么轮动的一种资金的回流，所 以整个市场显得非常的混乱。那这个时候请你记好，一定要有耐心，等一个东西，类似于2021年十四五 规划的时候，但是两会衍生出了一个非常好的一个结构性的投资机会，那当下要等十五五方向两会的落 地。这个时候耐心比什么都重要。现在的市场一定是什么？要拿先手搞潜伏，一旦看到什么涨了去追， 十有八九不会有太好的结果。 ...

Group 1 - The USS Ford, the largest and most advanced aircraft carrier of the US Navy, faced a significant operational issue as 90% of its 650 toilets malfunctioned, leading to a temporary stop in Greece for repairs [1] - This incident occurred just before former President Trump announced plans for a limited military action against Iran, causing a delay in military operations and providing Iran with a crucial opportunity for negotiation [1] Group 2 - The precious metals market reacted sharply to the news, with gold prices dropping below the psychological level of 5130 points, reflecting a 2.22% decrease, erasing previous gains [3] - London silver also experienced a decline of 2.78%, indicating a correlated movement in the international precious metals market [3] - The A-share market's precious metals sector saw a rebound, primarily as a corrective measure following previous increases during the Spring Festival, but may face risks due to the downward trend in external markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of precious metals, particularly gold and silver, has shown a strong upward trend driven by "safe-haven" and "stagflation trading" dynamics, with gold prices surpassing $5240 per ounce as of February 24, 2026 [1][7]. Group 1: Safe-Haven Logic - Multiple macroeconomic uncertainties globally are providing fundamental support for the prices of non-ferrous metals, including precious metals [3][9]. - The reversal of U.S. tariff policies, following a Supreme Court ruling against large-scale tariffs from the Trump administration, indicates prolonged trade friction and increased market risk aversion [3][9]. - Geopolitical uncertainties, such as the lack of progress in Russia-Ukraine negotiations and potential military conflicts between the U.S. and Iran, are heightening global risk aversion [3][9]. - Analysts from Goldman Sachs suggest that rising macro and geopolitical risks are driving investors to diversify into "hard assets," with precious metals and copper showing significant price appreciation potential [3][9]. Group 2: Stagflation Trading - Recent U.S. economic data indicates a slowdown, with the actual GDP growth for 2025 projected at 2.2%, down from 2.8% in 2024, marking the lowest growth since 2021 [3][9]. - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for December 2025 is expected to rise by 3.0%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target, raising concerns about stagflation [3][9]. - Stagflation, characterized by stagnant economic growth and high inflation, typically benefits commodities due to their inflation-hedging properties [3][9]. Group 3: Focus on Non-Ferrous Core Assets - As the market enters a "profit-driven growth phase" in 2026, the strong cyclical nature of non-ferrous metals is expected to manifest, supported by domestic re-inflation narratives [4][11]. - The ongoing issuance of the Silver Hua Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals ETF provides a convenient investment tool for investors looking to capitalize on core assets in the non-ferrous sector [4][11]. - The top five sectors in the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Index as of February 24, 2026, are copper (29.6%), gold (14.9%), aluminum (14.7%), rare earths (8.3%), and lithium (6.5%), reflecting a broad representation of the industry [6][13].

摘要全球最大黄金ETF--SPDRGoldTrust持仓报告显示，2月25日黄金etf持有量为1097.62吨，较上一交易 日增加3.43吨。周三（2月25日)截止收盘，现货黄金报5164.57美元/盎司，涨幅0.43%，日内最高上探至 5217.48美元/盎司，最低触5126.18美元/盎司。 【市场要闻速递】 芝商所金属期货于凌晨3:45正式恢复交易。 2月20日当夜美国最高法院驳回特朗普全球关税政策，援引《国际紧急经济权力法》推动的相关关税将 不再有效，后续可能产生的天量退税对美元信用形成削弱，该判决与不及预期的经济数据共同推动黄金 上行突破5100美元/盎司。 特朗普宣布签署行政令，将在150天内对全球进口至美国的商品征收10%的从价进口关税。此项临时进 口关税将于美国东部时间2月24日零时01分(北京时间13时01分)生效。 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓报告显示，2月25日黄金etf持有量为1097.62吨，较上一交易日 增加3.43吨。周三（2月25日)截止收盘，现货黄金报5164.57美元/盎司，涨幅0.43%，日内最高上探至 5217.48美元/盎司，最低触5126 ...