1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall commodity market pulled back 2.42% last week, with precious metals leading the decline at 11.29%, while energy - chemical and black commodities rose 1.64% and 0.08% respectively. The short - term commodity market may fluctuate due to tightened dollar liquidity [2][6]. - The Fed's hawkish stance in the interest - rate meeting last week pushed the dollar stronger, putting pressure on commodities. Geopolitical tensions support energy - related varieties, but the market may be volatile in the short term [2]. - Precious metals may remain weak as central banks' hawkish signals and rising oil prices increase inflation pressure, and the market expects the Fed may not cut interest rates this year [2]. - The non - ferrous metals sector is under pressure due to the high dollar index and cooling interest - rate cut expectations, but spot procurement provides some support [3]. - The black commodities sector may fluctuate strongly in the short term as terminal demand recovers, though steel mill profits limit the upside [3]. - Energy prices remained high last week due to geopolitical disturbances, and short - term oil price volatility may intensify [3]. - The chemical sector continues to be strong due to cost support and downstream resumption of production. Some products like methanol may be relatively stronger, while the polyester industry faces challenges [4]. - Agricultural products may experience increased volatility. Although they pulled back last week, biodiesel demand and supply uncertainties may affect prices [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Overall Market**: The overall commodity market pulled back 2.42% last week. Precious metals led the decline at 11.29%, non - ferrous metals and agricultural products fell 4.1% and 1.9% respectively, while energy - chemical and black commodities rose 1.64% and 0.08% [2][6]. - **Top Gainers and Losers**: The top - gaining varieties were ethylene glycol, methanol, and asphalt, with increases of 13.2%, 11.66%, and 9% respectively. The top - losing varieties were silver, tin, and live pigs, with declines of 15.76%, 8.45%, and 8.34% [2][6]. - **Volatility**: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market changed little last week, with most sectors showing a slight increase in volatility [2][6]. - **Fund Flow**: The overall market scale decreased significantly last week, with net outflows in all sectors, mainly concentrated in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [2][6]. 3.2 Market Outlook - **Precious Metals**: Central banks' hawkish signals and rising oil prices increase inflation pressure. The market expects the Fed may not cut interest rates this year. International gold and silver show signs of breaking down, and the sector may remain weak [2]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The high dollar index and cooling interest - rate cut expectations put pressure on the sector. However, spot procurement provides support as prices fall and downstream industries resume production, and high inventories may be at a turning point [3]. - **Black Commodities**: Terminal demand is recovering during the "Golden March and Silver April" period. Steel production is increasing, and inventories are starting to decline. Iron - water production has rebounded significantly, but steel mill profits limit further increases. Raw material prices are supported by factors such as geopolitical conflicts [3]. - **Energy**: Energy prices remained high last week due to geopolitical disturbances. The gap between alternative pipeline capacity and normal oil transportation through the Strait of Hormuz is large. Strategic oil reserve releases are mainly for emergency, and future oil price volatility may intensify [3]. - **Chemical**: The sector remains strong due to cost support and downstream resumption of production. Methanol may be relatively stronger, while the polyester industry faces challenges such as declining efficiency, low terminal demand, and inventory accumulation [4]. - **Agricultural Products**: Agricultural products pulled back last week due to global economic concerns. However, the value of biodiesel and supply uncertainties may lead to increased price volatility [4]. 3.3 Commodity Fund Overview - **Gold ETFs**: Most gold ETFs had negative weekly returns, with an average decline of around 8%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 3,186.22 billion yuan, with a 0.23% increase. Trading volume increased significantly [38]. - **Other ETFs**: The energy - chemical ETF had a 0.44% return, the soybean meal ETF had a - 3.10% return, the non - ferrous metals ETF had a - 6.18% return, and the silver fund had a - 19.48% return [38].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 12.64 billion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.0%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.08 billion yuan, up 74.7% year-on-year [1] - The company is planning a significant share transfer that may lead to a change in actual control [1] - The gold production for 2025 was 14.5 tons, a decrease of 4.3% year-on-year, with sales volume down 5.1% to 14.4 tons [2] - The average selling price of gold in Q4 2025 was 941 yuan per gram, an increase of 160 yuan per gram from the previous quarter [2] - The overall sales cost for the company in 2025 was 326 yuan per gram, an increase of 47 yuan per gram year-on-year [2] - The company expects gold production to increase to 14.7 tons in 2026, a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [3] - Revenue projections for 2026-2028 are 16.14 billion yuan, 19.42 billion yuan, and 21.40 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits of 5.14 billion yuan, 5.80 billion yuan, and 6.01 billion yuan [3] Financial Summary - In 2025, the company reported a gross profit of 6.6 billion yuan from gold sales, which accounted for 90% of total revenue [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 was 1.62 yuan, with a projected EPS of 2.71 yuan for 2026 [5] - The company's net asset return rate (ROE) for 2025 was 23.0% [5] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to be 15.1 for 2026, decreasing to 12.9 by 2028 [5]

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [15]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a low opening and wide fluctuations on March 23, 2026, with the Shanghai Composite Index finding support around 3858 points. Key sectors such as coal, nuclear power, and passenger vehicles performed well, while precious metals, hotel and restaurant, tourism, and components sectors lagged [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are 16.36 times and 47.34 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][14]. - The total trading volume for both markets reached 24,485 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][14]. - The main pressure on the market is attributed to overseas factors, particularly the potential escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, which could lead to rising oil prices and increased global stagflation pressures. Additionally, if U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts or even raise rates, impacting global liquidity and risk appetite [3][14]. - Domestic macroeconomic policies are becoming clearer, providing a solid support base for the market. The central bank has indicated a commitment to maintaining a moderately loose monetary policy, and various regulatory bodies are actively working to ensure market stability [3][14]. - Short-term investment opportunities are suggested in sectors such as electricity, photovoltaic equipment, automobiles, and coal [3][14].

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant downturn on March 23, with all three major indices dropping over 3%, and the North Stock 50 index falling more than 5% [2] - The coal sector showed strong performance, with companies like Yunmei Energy and Liaoning Energy hitting the daily limit up [2] - Conversely, the tourism sector saw substantial declines, with multiple stocks such as Sanxia Tourism and Guilin Tourism hitting the daily limit down [2] - Overall, nearly 5200 stocks in the two markets declined, indicating a broad market sell-off [2] Sector Analysis Coal Sector - CITIC Securities reported that ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have led to sustained increases in international oil and gas prices [3] - Despite short-term demand challenges for thermal coal, chemical coal demand is expected to continue, supporting a rebound in coal prices [3] - The outlook for coking coal prices remains positive due to improved short-term demand, and the sector is expected to perform well [3] Oil and Gas Sector - Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 oil price forecast due to extended disruptions in transportation through the Strait of Hormuz and heightened concerns about global supply concentration [4] - The firm anticipates that persistent inflationary pressures will support commodity-related currencies and increase market concerns regarding central bank policies [4] Institutional Perspectives - Analysts from Industrial Securities noted that recent market adjustments stem from two main concerns: the risk of economic "stagflation" and the potential escalation of conflicts, both of which may not represent the final outcome of the current situation [8] - They suggest that an escalation in conflict could paradoxically create opportunities for market recovery, as the most pessimistic sentiments often precede market rebounds [8] - Galaxy Securities analysts believe that the duration and evolution of geopolitical conflicts remain uncertain, which will continue to disrupt global risk assets in the short term [9] - They expect the A-share market to have limited downside, likely experiencing oscillations and structural rotations to absorb external pressures [9]

Investment Rating - Industry investment rating: Outperform the market (expected to outperform the market index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [61] Core Viewpoints - Precious Metals - Gold: The escalation of the Middle East situation has led to a decrease in gold prices, with COMEX gold futures reaching $4,492 per ounce, down 10.57% month-on-month. SPDR Gold ETF holdings decreased by 1.4% to 1,057 tons. The geopolitical situation is expected to continue impacting liquidity and gold prices in the short term, while the long-term pricing framework for gold remains unchanged [5][8]. - Industrial Metals: Increased geopolitical disturbances have put downward pressure on industrial metals. Copper prices fell by 5.55% to 94,740 RMB/ton, with domestic copper social inventory at 523,100 tons. Aluminum prices decreased by 3.8% to 24,020 RMB/ton, with domestic aluminum social inventory at 1,339,000 tons. Tin prices dropped by 8.5% to 342,500 RMB/ton, with domestic tin social inventory at 10,977 tons. The geopolitical situation is expected to continue affecting market sentiment [6][7][8]. Summary by Sections 1. Nonferrous Metal Index Trends - As of March 22, 2026, the nonferrous metal index closed at 9,356.16 points, down 12.3% month-on-month. The precious metal index fell by 10.7% to 29,454.22 points, the industrial metal index decreased by 13.3% to 3,337.03 points, and the energy metal index dropped by 10.8% to 2,683.75 points [11]. 2. Precious Metals - Gold: The macroeconomic uncertainties continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes. The long-term trend indicates a weakening of the dollar's credit status, enhancing gold's monetary properties. The recommendation is to focus on Chifeng Gold [8][59]. 3. Industrial Metals - Copper: Domestic demand is gradually recovering, and the global demand for refined copper is expected to open up long-term space. The recommendation is to focus on Luoyang Molybdenum [8][59]. - Aluminum: The weak supply and strong demand dynamics are expected to accelerate, with aluminum prices likely to continue rising. The recommendation is to focus on Tianshan Aluminum [8][59]. - Tin: The development of AI technology is expected to increase demand for tin, but geopolitical factors remain a significant influence on market sentiment [7][8]. 4. Energy Metals - Lithium: The report includes insights on lithium prices and market dynamics, indicating ongoing trends in supply and demand [46]. 5. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors due to their respective market dynamics and potential for growth [8][59].

Oil Market - The core variable for oil price trends remains the ability to maintain the smooth operation of the Strait of Hormuz, with geopolitical conflicts showing no signs of easing, leading to potential price volatility [2][22] - The International Energy Agency's member countries are releasing strategic oil reserves as an emergency buffer, but this is not a sustainable supply source, and there is still a need for replenishment after the release [2] Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to show weakness, influenced by hawkish signals from central banks like the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, with expectations that the Fed may not lower interest rates this year [3] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are likely to keep precious metals under pressure [3] Base Metals - Copper prices have declined due to negative risks from the Middle East situation and increasing inflationary pressures, with domestic demand providing some support [4] - Aluminum prices have retreated as domestic inventories reach record highs, while overseas low inventories create a shortage expectation [5] - Zinc prices are under pressure with a rebound in domestic zinc concentrate stocks, while the market remains cautious about the seasonal destocking pace [8] Industrial Metals - The market for aluminum alloys is following aluminum price fluctuations, with a narrowing price gap due to overall declines in the sector [7] - The iron ore market is experiencing fluctuations, with domestic port inventories declining seasonally and demand from steel mills showing signs of recovery [16] Energy Products - Fuel oil prices are expected to remain strong due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply routes, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz [22] - The asphalt market is tightening as refinery supplies decrease, with expectations of improved demand as temperatures rise [23] Agricultural Products - The soybean and meal markets are under pressure due to rising energy prices and concerns over fertilizer supply disruptions from the Middle East [36] - The corn market is expected to respond to government policies aimed at ensuring food security, with recent price increases observed [40] Livestock - The live pig market is facing downward pressure with high inventory levels, while the egg market shows potential for price increases due to lower supply expectations [41][42] Chemical Products - The methanol market is showing strength due to reduced import volumes and recovering domestic demand, influenced by geopolitical factors [25] - The PVC market is experiencing a strong upward trend, supported by tight supply and rising raw material costs [29] Financial Markets - The stock market is experiencing volatility, with significant movements in indices influenced by geopolitical developments and central bank policies [48]

Market Overview - The A-share market opened lower on March 23, with all three major indices dropping over 2%, and the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 3900-point mark [1] - By midday, the Shanghai Composite Index was down 2.5%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 2.53%, and the ChiNext Index down 2.44%, while the Sci-Tech Innovation Index fell over 3% [1][2] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 15.5 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The green electricity concept showed resilience, with Huadian Liao Energy (600396) achieving six consecutive trading limits, and Dongfang New Energy (002310) hitting four trading limits in six days [5] - The robotics sector also performed well, with multiple stocks including Zhongdali De (002896) and Jinfatech (600143) reaching trading limits [5] - The coal sector saw significant gains, with Liaoning Energy (600758) hitting a trading limit and a buy order exceeding 1.24 million hands [5] Declining Sectors - Precious metals and pork sectors faced significant declines, with stocks like Muyuan Foods (002714) and Jinxinnong (002548) experiencing substantial drops [6] Individual Stock Movements - Domestic AI chip leader Cambricon Technologies saw its stock price drop over 3%, falling below the 1000 yuan mark, amid intensifying competition in the domestic AI chip market [7] - Chifeng Gold (600988) faced a trading halt, with its stock price hitting the limit down due to ongoing pressure in the international gold market, which saw prices drop below 4400 USD per ounce [7] - BYD (002594) experienced a counter-trend increase, with its stock price rising 5.69% to 108.89 yuan, bringing its market capitalization back to 1 trillion yuan [8] Industry Insights - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is driving up refined oil prices, with predictions of a price increase in the domestic market [9] - The Chinese new energy vehicle market has surpassed a 50% penetration rate, shifting competition from price wars to core technology and supply chain resilience [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has issued a notice regarding significant fluctuations in precious metal prices due to various market instability factors, urging member units to closely monitor market changes and prepare risk response plans to maintain market stability [1]. Group 1 - The notice highlights the recent increase in volatility of precious metal prices, indicating a need for heightened vigilance among market participants [1]. - Member units are advised to implement detailed risk management strategies to ensure the smooth operation of the market [1]. - Investors are reminded to take precautions against risks, manage their positions wisely, and engage in rational investment practices [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, indicating an expected performance that exceeds the broader market by over 10% [2][14]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring low-level investment opportunities amidst pressured macroeconomic sentiment [1]. - It highlights the potential for recovery in demand as seasonal factors come into play, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions affecting aluminum prices and the increasing value of gold allocations [4][6]. Summary by Sections Copper - The report notes that macroeconomic sentiment is under pressure, with a focus on downstream demand support. Recent prices for LME copper and SHFE copper were $12,022 and $94,740 per ton, reflecting week-over-week declines of 5.8% and 5.6% respectively. The copper concentrate processing fee has dropped significantly, indicating tight supply [6][10]. Precious Metals - The report suggests that there are opportunities for reallocation following recent adjustments in precious metals. SHFE gold and London spot gold prices were reported at ¥1,039.2 per gram and $4,595.1 per ounce, with week-over-week declines of 8.3% and 8.6% respectively. The volatility of gold has decreased, suggesting a potential stabilization in prices [6][10]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is experiencing a pullback, with LME aluminum and SHFE aluminum prices at $3,329 and $24,020 per ton, down 5.4% and 3.8% week-over-week. The report indicates a high operating rate for electrolytic aluminum and a slight increase in processing rates, suggesting a recovery trend [6][10]. Minor Metals - Tungsten prices remain firm, while rare earths are under short-term pressure. The report notes that tungsten concentrate prices were at ¥1.025 million per ton, down 1.9% week-over-week. The Ministry of Commerce's new export controls on rare earths may lead to increased demand for non-restricted products [6][10]. Steel - The steel sector is seeing improvements in demand due to increased new home transactions and a faster resumption of construction activities. SHFE rebar and hot-rolled coil prices were reported at ¥3,123 and ¥3,297 per ton, with a slight decrease in rebar prices and a marginal increase in hot-rolled coil prices [7][10].

Price Performance - The latest prices of London Gold, London Silver, London Platinum, London Palladium, WTI Crude Oil, and LME Copper are $4562.55, $72.37, $1935.00, $1438.00, $98.23, and $12152.00 respectively, with changes of -$37.80, $2.67, -$131.00, -$115.00, $2.09, and $50.50 [2]. - The latest values of the US Dollar Index, Euro-to-US Dollar, British Pound-to-US Dollar, US Dollar-to-Japanese Yen, and US 10-year TIPS are 99.18, 1.16, 1.34, 157.69, and 2.01 respectively, with changes of 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, and 0.13 [2]. Trading Data - The latest inventories of COMEX Silver, SHFE Silver, and SGE Silver are 10409.86, 362.50, and 445.04 respectively, with changes of 0.00, -2.37, and 0.00 [3]. - The latest holdings of Gold ETF and Silver ETF are 1056.99 and 15248.91 respectively, with changes of -5.14 and 61.97 [3]. - The latest deferred fee payment directions of SGE Silver and SGE Gold are both 2, with no change [3].