多位大银行 CEO 也公开表达了对美联储独立性的维护。他们警告，破坏美联储的独立性可能带来危险后果：短期会引发市场恐慌，长期则会削弱美元的储 备货币地位和美国金融市场的全球吸引力。摩根大通、高盛等华尔街巨头的掌门人纷纷表态，强调美联储不受政治干预是美国经济稳定的基石，这种共识形 成了强大的舆论压力，让特朗普在采取实际行动前不得不三思。 从市场反应来看，投资者的押注已得到初步验证。在特朗普升级施压后的几个交易日里，美国国债市场虽出现短暂波动，但 10 年期国债收益率仅小幅上升 5 个基点，远低于 2018 年美联储主席被公开批评时的波动幅度。这表明市场已部分消化了政治噪音，对美联储政策的信任度仍在。同时，美元指数保持稳 定，美股也未出现恐慌性抛售，显示出市场对 "政治威胁难落地" 的预期已成为主流。 深入分析可见，投资者的信心源于多重约束条件。从法律层面看，美联储主席的任免程序并非总统单方面决定，需经过参议院批准，而当前参议院的政治格 局使得解雇鲍威尔的提案难以通过。从政治逻辑看，特朗普若强行推动撤换，可能引发与司法系统的对峙，分散其竞选精力，得不偿失。从经济现实看，当 前美国经济虽有韧性，但尚未到需要紧急降息 ...

Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index opened up by 1.06% and the Hang Seng Tech Index opened up by 1.31% [1] - GCL-Poly Energy opened over 14% higher, driven by news of a strategic cooperation with Taiping Asset Management in Hong Kong regarding the global issuance of RWA [1]

Group 1: Economic Outlook - BlackRock's Chief China Economist highlighted that China's export data exceeded expectations in the first half, with June exports growing by 5.8% year-on-year, but pressures are expected to increase in the second half due to a weakening real estate market and softening consumption in the restaurant sector [3] - The company noted that while there are short-term pressures on demand, recent policy adjustments could benefit long-term economic structure improvements, enhancing foreign investment interest in the Chinese market [3] - The expectation is for policy measures to gain momentum towards the end of September, with nominal interest rates having significantly decreased, although real interest rates remain high [3] Group 2: Investment Strategy - BlackRock's investment strategy in the current low-interest-rate environment favors equities, suggesting a core allocation to stocks, with interest rate bonds serving as stabilizers and credit bonds maintained at a neutral stance [3][4] - The focus is on three asset categories: stocks with strong cash flow value, broad consumption sectors benefiting from policy support, and traditional high-growth sectors like AI and healthcare [4] - The importance of gold as a hedging tool in asset allocation is expected to continue to rise, with a positive outlook on U.S. stocks despite their current high valuations due to solid fundamentals [4] Group 3: A-Share and Hong Kong Market Outlook - BlackRock's Chief Equity Investment Officer expressed optimism for the A-share market in the second half, citing government policies aimed at stimulating consumption and improving the operating environment for listed companies [6] - For the Hong Kong market, potential opportunities are identified in the Hang Seng Technology sector and high-quality traditional enterprises, with expectations for valuation improvements if mid-year reports show strong performance [6] Group 4: Debt Market Insights - The debt market is experiencing an "asset shortage," with extreme compression of term spreads and credit spreads, leading to high valuations and low yield levels [7] - The expectation is for the central bank to maintain liquidity support, which will underpin the debt market, although the current high valuations make the market sensitive to risks [7]

Core Viewpoint - BlackRock maintains a positive outlook on the Chinese market, anticipating a "bull market" in both stocks and bonds in the second half of 2025, driven by gradually warming policy expectations [2][3]. Economic Outlook - China's export data exceeded expectations in the first half, with a year-on-year growth of 5.8% in June, but pressures are expected to increase in the second half due to a weakening real estate market and softening consumption in the restaurant sector [3]. - The macroeconomic environment shows resilience, with companies demonstrating strong adaptability and product innovation. Positive changes in macro control and industry regulation since September last year have increased foreign investment interest in China [3]. - Policy expectations are anticipated to rise, particularly after September, with nominal interest rates having significantly decreased, yet real interest rates remain high. Monetary policy is expected to stabilize, with potential for increased support [3]. Asset Allocation Strategy - In the current low-interest-rate environment, BlackRock favors a "bull market" in stocks over bonds, recommending a portfolio centered on equities, with government bonds serving as stabilizers and credit bonds maintained at a neutral level [3][4]. - Investment focus should be on three asset categories: high dividend and strong free cash flow stocks, broad consumption sectors like automotive and electronics benefiting from policy support, and traditional high-growth sectors such as AI and healthcare, which have long-term growth potential despite short-term profitability concerns [4]. A-Share Market Expectations - The emphasis on economic development by the government and the introduction of policies to stimulate consumption are expected to alleviate profit pressures on listed companies compared to last year, leading to an improved operating environment [7]. - The Hong Kong stock market presents opportunities in the Hang Seng Technology sector, which is currently reasonably valued, and in high-quality traditional enterprises that may see valuation increases if they report strong mid-year results [7]. Bond Market Insights - The bond market is experiencing an "asset shortage," with extreme compression of term spreads and credit spreads, leading to high valuations and low yield levels [8]. - The central bank is expected to maintain liquidity support, which underpins the bond market's fundamentals. Despite high valuations, as long as the policy tone remains unchanged, the outlook for the bond market remains positive [8].

据报道，由贝莱德牵头的集团将投资100亿美元的沙特阿美贾富拉基础设施项目。 ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the strategic cooperation memorandum signed between GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited and China Pacific Insurance (601601) Investment Management (Hong Kong) Limited to develop infrastructure for real-world asset (RWA) tokenization solutions [1] - The collaboration aims to promote the adoption of compliant digital asset products and services, including the development of stablecoin applications and integration of decentralized finance [1]

Group 1: Core Insights - Grayscale has submitted an IPO registration statement to the SEC amid a surge in Bitcoin prices, signaling a new wave of listings in the cryptocurrency sector [2] - The current regulatory environment in the U.S. is becoming more favorable towards digital assets, with multiple legislative initiatives underway [2][7] - Grayscale's flagship product, GBTC, has seen a significant decline in its market position due to increased competition from ETFs and a shift in investor preferences [3][5] Group 2: Company Developments - Grayscale manages approximately $50 billion in assets, with GBTC currently holding $21.385 billion, generating around $300 million annually from a 1.5% management fee [3] - The transition of GBTC to an ETF has been a long and contentious process, culminating in a recent court victory that mandates the SEC to review Grayscale's ETF application [4] - Grayscale's decision to pursue an IPO is driven by the need to attract external capital and enhance its market position amid rising competition from lower-fee ETFs [6] Group 3: Industry Trends - The approval of new cryptocurrency legislation in the U.S. is seen as a potential catalyst for increased institutional investment and market stability [7][8] - The competitive landscape is shifting as traditional financial institutions leverage their brand strength and lower fees to capture market share from Grayscale [5][6] - The outcome of the pending legislation could significantly impact market dynamics, either fostering a more robust investment environment or leading to increased uncertainty [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. tariff policy under the Trump administration may lead to stagflation, impacting the economy negatively and increasing uncertainty for American consumers [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The volatile tariff agenda, along with immigration policies and rising national debt, has increased market volatility [2]. - Some analysts warn that the U.S. economy may be heading towards stagflation, characterized by slow growth and high inflation [2]. - A report from Apollo Global Management highlights that higher tariffs could lead to stagflationary shocks, increasing the likelihood of economic slowdown while putting upward pressure on prices [2]. Group 2: Consumer Impact - The Swiss Re Institute reports that the unpredictable policy changes under the current U.S. government have diminished global confidence in the U.S. as a safe haven for capital, leading to lowered growth expectations for major economies by 2025 [3]. - The report indicates that declining efficiency in global supply chains and increased domestic protectionism may result in a structural rise in average inflation in the U.S. [3]. - American households, already struggling with high living costs, are preparing for future uncertainties, whether facing recession or stagflation [3]. - Jerome Hegglin, Chief Economist at Swiss Re, states that U.S. consumers will bear the brunt of the tariff policy, as rising prices will force them to cut spending, which is crucial for U.S. economic growth [3].

近日，东方汇理资产管理发布《2025年中投资展望》称，全球经济正在重塑，迫使投资者与政策制定者 谨慎行事。不确定的政策制定正引发市场剧烈波动。尽管如此，主要经济体至今仍表现强韧。集团首席 投资总监Vincent Mortier表示，政府债券市场受债务上升威胁及通胀忧虑升温所冲击，导致波动加剧。 投资者可能要求长债提供更高的补偿，令收益率显得吸引。未来的关键策略是从美国市场分散至欧洲及 新兴市场债券。 东方汇理资产管理投资研究院主管Monica Defend表示，尽管政策难以预测、企业表现强韧以及全球贸 易和金融体系重组，但预期央行降息将为全球股票带来机遇。东方汇理聚焦于欧洲国防开支、美国放宽 监管、日本企业管治改革及"印度制造"倡议等主题。 4.债券的关键时刻将有利欧洲信贷及新兴市场债券 面对贸易政策不明朗、公共债务增加及庞大的债券供应，投资者将对美国国债要求更高的溢价。已发展 市场方面，长债收益率将继续受压。央行降息将继续支持短债，推动收益率曲线走斜。投资者将寻求分 散投资于不同市场，利好欧洲及新兴市场债券。东方汇理继续投资于优质信贷，偏好欧元投资级别信贷 (金融及后偿信贷)。 5.股票方面，关税影响将成为 ...

智通财经APP获悉，如果根据选前民调的预测来看，那么在本周日的日本参议院选举之后，日本股市可 能会出现持续下跌的局面。多项地方选举结果显示，执政联盟可能在本周末的选举中失去多数席位，这 给首相石破茂带来了又一个打击，此前他在去年 10 月的下议院选举中意外失去了多数席位。政治方面 的担忧已经对市场造成影响，当地股票的表现也逊于MSCI世界指数本月的走势。 日兴资产管理公司的首席分析师Toshiya Matsunami表示，当执政党失去多数席位时，"市场需要 35 至 75 天才能触底，这一期间的总跌幅平均约为 8%"。而如果执政党获胜，东证指数则大约在 15 天内触 底。 石破茂领导的自由民主党联盟在参议院中仍可能占据最大席位，但可能失去多数席位这一情况引发了人 们对政府能否在 8 月 1 日截止日期前完成贸易协议的担忧，同时也反映出政府对财政的掌控力有所减 弱。各反对党主要围绕降低消费税的更昂贵方案展开竞选活动。 这给日本债券市场带来了冲击。周二，日本10年期国债收益率创下 17 年来的新高。由于政治动荡和贸 易争端，本月迄今为止，日元是表现最差的主要货币之一。 东证指数在经历了三个月的上涨后，于 7 月份 ...