Core Viewpoint - The company is experiencing stable growth in its main brand and FILA, while all other brands are showing rapid growth driven by the outdoor sports trend [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - In Q2 2025, the main brand recorded low single-digit year-on-year growth, while FILA achieved mid single-digit growth, and all other brands saw a significant increase of 50-55% [1]. - For the first half of 2025, the main brand achieved mid single-digit year-on-year growth, FILA recorded high single-digit growth, and all other brands experienced a growth rate of 60-65% [1]. - The main brand's retail growth in Q2 was slightly below expectations, prompting a focus on the effectiveness of online and offline channel enhancement plans [1]. Group 2: Brand Performance - FILA's Q2 retail growth was in line with expectations, achieving mid single-digit year-on-year growth [2]. - The outdoor industry is thriving, with high demand for premium outdoor brands like Descente and KOLON, contributing to the rapid growth of all other brands [2]. - Maia Active is gaining momentum, with a new endorsement deal and the launch of a Yoga Studio store format expected to enhance brand visibility [2]. Group 3: Profit Forecast and Rating - The company is recognized as a leading player in the sports footwear and apparel industry, with a strong competitive edge and significant growth potential through multi-brand operations and overseas expansion [3]. - Projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 13.5 billion, 15.567 billion, and 17.163 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -13.44%, 15.31%, and 10.25% [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the stability provided by its main brand and FILA, along with growth potential in the outdoor segment [3].

Core Viewpoint - Taboos is strengthening its position in the running market by acquiring more brand agency rights, recently announcing the introduction of Ciele Athletics to China, which will be fully managed by Taboos for brand promotion and sales [2][3] Company Strategy - Taboos has made running a key focus area, having secured exclusive operational partnerships with several running brands, including Soar and Norda, indicating a strategic pivot towards this growing segment [4] - The company aims to fill the gap in the running category, as its main brands like Nike and Adidas lack specialized offerings in this area [4] Market Dynamics - The running market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the industry size exceeding 428.8 billion yuan, and road running events driving over 16.8 billion yuan in consumption [6] - Despite the potential, the running market is becoming increasingly competitive, with established brands like Nike and Adidas holding substantial market shares alongside domestic brands like Xtep and Anta [7] Financial Performance - Taboos reported a revenue of 27.01 billion yuan for the fiscal year ending February 28, 2025, a decline of 6.64% year-on-year, with net profit dropping by 41.86% [5] - The company has faced challenges due to reliance on major brands and the shift in consumer behavior towards price sensitivity and diversified experiences [5][6] Challenges and Risks - Taboos' dependency on Nike and Adidas for over 80% of its revenue poses a risk, especially as these brands face increasing competition from both local and international players [6] - The company must invest significantly in marketing and consumer education to promote new and niche brands in the competitive running market [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the textile and apparel industry, including Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Bosideng, among others [11][31][30]. Core Insights - The apparel retail sector shows steady growth, with outdoor and running segments continuing to perform strongly [3][4]. - Jewelry retail sales have seen rapid growth due to high gold prices, although the growth rate has slowed in June compared to previous months [2][17]. - The overall consumer environment is recovering, with a year-on-year increase of 4.8% in social retail sales in June 2025 [1][16]. Summary by Sections Apparel and Footwear - In June 2025, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, and hats increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a cumulative growth of 3.1% for the first half of the year [3][22]. - The sportswear segment outperformed the overall apparel market, with brands like Anta and Xtep showing significant growth in their respective categories [4][30]. - Anta's other brand divisions reported a year-on-year revenue increase of 50% to 55% in Q2 2025, while Xtep's subsidiary Saucony saw a revenue increase of over 20% [3][39]. Jewelry - The jewelry retail sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 6.1% in June 2025, with a cumulative growth of 11.3% for the first half of the year, significantly outperforming the overall retail sector [2][17]. - The increase in jewelry sales is attributed to rising gold prices, which have increased by nearly 40% compared to the same period last year [2][17]. Market Trends - The textile and apparel manufacturing sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 1.65% increase compared to the 1.09% rise in the CSI 300 index [33]. - The report highlights the importance of companies with strong fundamentals and brand strength, particularly in the context of a recovering consumer environment [4][28]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with robust fundamentals, such as Anta Sports, Xtep International, and Bosideng, which are expected to benefit from market recovery and improved valuations [30][31]. - Companies like Zhou Dafu and Chao Hong Ji are highlighted for their product differentiation and brand strength, which are expected to outperform the industry in 2025 [28][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Anta Sports with a target price of HKD 113.6, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of HKD 92.45 [6]. Core Insights - Anta's main brand recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, slightly below expectations, while FILA achieved mid-single-digit growth. Other brands saw significant growth of 50-55% [2][3]. - The company has completed the acquisition of Jack Wolfskin, a German outdoor brand, for USD 290 million, which is expected to enhance its presence in the outdoor market in China [3]. - The financial projections for EPS from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at RMB 4.72, RMB 5.26, and RMB 5.88 respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory despite some fluctuations in profit margins [4][3]. Summary by Sections Brand Performance - Anta's main brand experienced low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with children's products performing better than bulk items. The overall H1 performance showed mid-single-digit growth [2]. - FILA's Q2 2025 revenue growth was in the mid-single digits, aligning with expectations, while other brands, including Descente and KOLON, reported over 40% and 70% growth respectively [2][3]. Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from RMB 62.36 billion in 2023 to RMB 92.97 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.8% [4]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be RMB 13.25 billion, reflecting a decrease of 15% compared to 2024, followed by a recovery in subsequent years [4]. Valuation Metrics - The report assigns a 2025 PE ratio of 22 times, based on industry averages and brand premium considerations, supporting the target price of HKD 113.6 [3][4]. - The projected gross margin remains stable around 62%, with net profit margins expected to fluctuate between 16.9% and 17.8% over the forecast period [4][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Li Ning with a target price of HKD 19.2 for 2025, based on a 20x PE ratio [1][4][7]. Core Insights - Li Ning's overall platform revenue (excluding Li Ning YOUNG) recorded low single-digit growth in Q2 2025, with offline channels experiencing low single-digit decline while e-commerce channels saw mid-single-digit growth [2][4]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the running and fitness categories, both achieving high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a decline of over 20% due to market conditions [2][3]. - The company continues to optimize its channel structure, with a net decrease of 18 stores year-to-date, and plans to expand new store layouts as per strategy [3][4]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: 2025E at RMB 28,698 million, 2026E at RMB 30,498 million, and 2027E at RMB 31,943 million, reflecting growth rates of 0.1%, 6.3%, and 4.7% respectively [5][12]. - The forecasted EPS for 2025 is RMB 0.88, with a decline in net profit expected to RMB 2,269 million, a decrease of 24.7% compared to the previous year [5][12]. - The gross margin is projected to remain stable around 49.2% for 2025, with a slight increase to 49.5% by 2027 [5][13].

Summary of Conference Call on Tariff Impact on OEM Industry and Brand Owners Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the impact of increased tariffs on the OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer) industry and brand owners in the footwear and apparel sector [1] - Key regions mentioned include Southeast Asia, particularly Vietnam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, which face tariffs ranging from over 30% to more than 40% [2] Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Implications**: The imposition of tariffs means that various stakeholders, including manufacturers, brand owners, and consumers, will share the burden of increased costs. Initially, brands will absorb the tariffs, but over time, costs will be passed on to consumers through price increases and reduced discounts [4][10] - **Profit Margin Impact**: The average profit margin for footwear and apparel manufacturers is around 10%. The tariff differences among Southeast Asian countries create significant implications for these manufacturers, especially given China's tariffs reaching 145% [2] - **U.S. Import Dependency**: The U.S. remains the largest export market for China, with a declining dependency on Chinese textile and apparel imports from 37% in 2017 to 26% in 2023. However, China still leads in textile and apparel imports to the U.S. [3] - **Cost Sharing Dynamics**: In the short term, brands may absorb tariff costs, but mid-term strategies will involve sharing costs among supply chains, brands, and consumers. Long-term, consumers are expected to bear the majority of the additional costs [4][10] - **Brand Pricing Strategies**: Brands with higher pricing power, such as luxury and premium brands, can cover tariff costs with smaller price increases (around 3% to 5%), while lower-tier brands may face more significant impacts on their profit margins [11] Additional Important Points - **Geopolitical and Logistical Considerations**: The OEM industry must consider geopolitical stability, logistics, and cultural factors when deciding on production locations. The transition to new production sites is complex and requires careful planning [6] - **Supplier Relationships**: The ability of OEMs to negotiate with brands and their position within the supply chain are critical for managing tariff impacts. Brands may seek to negotiate cost-sharing arrangements based on the value chain contributions of OEMs [13] - **Market Dynamics**: The OEM sector is expected to see a consolidation of market share among leading suppliers, as smaller players may struggle to adapt to the increased cost pressures and operational challenges [16] - **Future Outlook**: The expectation is that the burden of tariffs will not be a long-term issue for OEMs, as they will eventually pass costs to consumers. The focus will remain on maintaining competitive pricing and managing inventory effectively [15] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the implications of tariffs on the OEM industry and brand owners, highlighting the dynamics of cost-sharing, market dependency, and strategic responses to tariff pressures.

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the consumer sentiment-driven spending in the second half of the year, particularly in the light industry and sportswear sectors, which have shown a modest increase of approximately 5% and 6% respectively since the beginning of the year [1][2] Key Investment Themes 1. **Outdoor Sports Sector** - Emphasis on social attributes and mental wellness, targeting urban consumers [2][13] - The outdoor sports market is driven by activities such as cycling, hiking, and climbing, which have gained popularity among younger demographics [5][6] - The average annual spending on outdoor products in first-tier cities exceeds 5,000 yuan, indicating a strong market for outdoor apparel and gear [6] 2. **Gold and Jewelry Sector** - Retail sales of fine jewelry have shown a year-on-year increase of approximately 22% as of May 2025, with a cumulative growth of 12.3% from January to May [7] - The sector is characterized by a trend towards heritage and cultural value, particularly in handcrafted gold products [8][9] - Brands are leveraging IP collaborations to attract younger consumers, focusing on affordability and emotional value [8][9] 3. **Cultural and Trendy IP Sector** - The demand for cultural and trendy IP products is driven by emotional value and social connections, appealing to both young and middle-aged consumers [10][12] - The market for blind box products has been particularly strong, creating excitement and surprise for consumers [12] Additional Insights - The internal brand performance in the sportswear sector is stable, with effective inventory and receivables management [4] - The rise of emotional and mental wellness consumption trends is expected to continue influencing consumer behavior in the latter half of the year [13] - Recommended companies for investment include Anta Sports, Laofu Wangjin, Chaohongji, Pop Mart, and Brook, which are closely monitored for performance [14] Risk Considerations - While the outlook for emotional and mental wellness consumption remains positive, potential risks should be acknowledged, particularly in market volatility and consumer sentiment shifts [15]

Core Viewpoint - 361 Degrees reported strong performance in Q2 2025, with significant growth in both adult and children's apparel, as well as e-commerce sales, indicating a robust operational status and effective market strategies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In Q2 2025, 361 Degrees' adult apparel offline channel revenue grew by approximately 10%, while children's apparel also saw a 10% increase, and e-commerce revenue rose by 20% year-on-year [1]. - The company expects a revenue growth of 14% for 2025, with profit margins remaining stable, reflecting a positive outlook for the domestic sports footwear and apparel industry [3]. Group 2: Product Development - The product matrix of 361 Degrees continues to expand, with new offerings such as the professional racing shoes "Flying Future2" and various models targeting specific runner needs, enhancing market competitiveness [2]. - The company launched specialized children's products, including the "Shining 1.0" racing jump rope shoes and "Hunting Wind" football shoes, maintaining a clear positioning in the children's apparel segment [3]. Group 3: Marketing and Brand Strategy - 361 Degrees is focusing on hosting its own basketball and running events to strengthen consumer engagement and brand influence, with recent initiatives including a promotional tour featuring signed star player Jokic [2]. - The company is actively expanding its retail presence, with 39 new super stores opened in major cities, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency and drive high-quality growth in offline retail [2]. Group 4: E-commerce Growth - The e-commerce segment of 361 Degrees is experiencing rapid growth, with a 20% year-on-year increase in revenue for Q2 2025, driven by differentiated products and targeted promotions during key sales events [3].

Core Viewpoint - Li Ning is experiencing low single-digit growth in terminal sales for Q2 2025, with management maintaining a revenue guidance of flat growth for 2025, but expecting a decline in profitability [1][3] Sales Performance - Q2 2025 overall sales growth for Li Ning is low single-digit, with offline sales declining in low single digits, while wholesale shows low single-digit growth and online sales exhibit mid-single-digit growth [1] - By product category, running and fitness show high single-digit growth, sports lifestyle remains flat, basketball sees a 20% decline, and outdoor categories perform well [1] - By sales channel, lower-tier markets outperform higher-tier markets, and outlet stores perform better than full-price stores [1] Discounts and Inventory - Due to slowing terminal sales growth and the need for inventory clearance, discount pressure is significant in Q2 2025, with continued pressure expected in the second half of the year; however, inventory levels are currently healthy [1] - Li Ning's overall inventory turnover rate has decreased to approximately 4 months [1] Product and Marketing Strategy - The company is focusing on functional upgrades in products while expanding Olympic themes across multiple categories, including protective and stability features in running, women's products in sports lifestyle, and more outdoor gear [2] - As of June 30, 2025, Li Ning has 6,099 sales points (excluding Li Ning YOUNG), a net increase of 11 from the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 from the beginning of the year; Li Ning YOUNG has 1,435 sales points, with a net decrease of 18 from the previous quarter and 33 from the start of the year [2] - Marketing efforts will focus on the Olympics and technology, with sponsorships and athlete collaborations to enhance brand influence, alongside continued support for marathon events [2] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendation - As a leading domestic sports footwear and apparel brand, Li Ning is expected to face revenue and profit pressures due to weak consumer demand and intensified market competition; revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 28.74 billion, 29.96 billion, and 31.11 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0%, 4%, and 4% respectively [3] - Net profit projections for the same period are 2.38 billion, 2.53 billion, and 2.72 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -21%, 7%, and 7% respectively; the current stock price corresponds to a 25 PE of 15.5X, maintaining a strong buy recommendation [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for 361 Degrees with a target price of HKD 6.6 [6]. Core Insights - The company has shown robust growth in both offline and online sales, with the main brand and children's clothing lines achieving approximately 10% growth, while e-commerce platforms recorded about 20% growth [2][3]. - The introduction of new products across various categories, including running, basketball, and children's sportswear, reflects the company's commitment to innovation and consumer choice [2]. - The expansion of super stores is a strategic move to enhance consumer experience and drive sales, with plans to increase the number of super stores to 80-100 by the end of the year [3]. Financial Summary - Projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are estimated at RMB 0.60, 0.69, and 0.76 respectively [3]. - Revenue is expected to grow from RMB 8,423 million in 2023 to RMB 13,812 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10.1% [4][9]. - The net profit is projected to increase from RMB 961 million in 2023 to RMB 1,579 million by 2027, with a net profit margin remaining stable around 11% [4][9].