大宗商品研究所 有色研发报告 有色金属日报 2025 年 4 月 24 日星期四 研究所副所长、有色及贵 金属板块负责人：车红云 期货从业证号：F03088215 投资咨询从业证号：Z0017510 研究员：王伟 期货从业证号：F03143400 投资咨询从业证号：Z0022141 研究员：陈婧 FRM 期货从业证号：F03107034 投资咨询从业证号：Z0018401 研究员：陈寒松 期货从业证号：F03129697 投资咨询从业证号：Z0020351 联系方式： 上海：021-65789219 北京：010-68569781 1.期货：今日沪铜 2505 合约收于 77600 元，跌幅 0.5%，沪铜指数增仓 4180 手至 53.41 万 手。 2.现货：铜价震荡下行但仍处高位，下游接货需求有所减弱，成交重心有所下调。上海报 升水 175 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 10 元/吨，天津报贴水 10 元/吨，下跌 10 元/吨。广东 地区报升水 225 元/吨，持平昨日。 【重要资讯】 1.截至 4 月 24 日周四，全国主流地区铜库存较周一下降 1.48 万吨至 18.17 万吨，较上周四 下降 5.1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Trump's tariff policies have a significant impact on the global financial market and有色金属 prices. Short - term price fluctuations are intense, and the medium - term supply - demand fundamentals of various metals are still the main factors affecting prices [3][18][37] - For different metals, the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on their supply - demand relationships, cost factors, and policy impacts [3][10][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Copper 2504 contract closed at 75,400 yuan, up 4.23%, and the Shanghai Copper Index increased its position by 3,919 lots to 543,300 lots. The spot premium decreased [2] - **Important Information**: As of April 10, the national mainstream copper inventory decreased significantly. It is expected that the supply will be tight next week, and the demand increase will be limited, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline [2] - **Logic Analysis**: Trump's tariff suspension announcement led to a short - term rebound in LME copper. The fundamentals show a back structure, and the impact of the trade war on orders may appear after April. It is recommended to short on rebounds [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions and wait and see for arbitrage [3] Alumina - **Market Review**: The Alumina 2505 contract rose 35 yuan/ton to 2,790 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 20,444 lots to 392,500 lots. The spot price decreased in most regions [5] - **Related Information**: Multiple alumina plants are undergoing maintenance, and new production lines are put into operation. The national alumina inventory increased, and the price of imported bauxite decreased [6][7] - **Logic Analysis**: Although the short - term supply - demand surplus situation is alleviated, it is difficult to change in the medium - term. It is recommended to short after the rebound [9] - **Trading Strategy**: Short the price, wait and see for arbitrage, and buy put options [10][11] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Aluminum 2505 contract closed at 19,805 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan/ton, and the position decreased by 19,603 lots to 509,800 lots. The spot price increased [13] - **Related Information**: Trump adjusted the tariff policy, and China counter - imposed tariffs. The US 10 - year Treasury yield soared. The domestic aluminum inventory decreased, and the CPI and PPI data were released [14][16] - **Trading Logic**: Trump's tariff suspension led to a market rebound. The tariff may affect aluminum exports, and the domestic second - quarter demand and inventory will support the basis and month - to - month spread [18] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the short - term due to macro - uncertainty, expect the AL05 - 08 contract spread to widen, and wait and see for options [23] Zinc - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Zinc 2505 rose 2.92% to 22,705 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Zinc Index decreased by 17,515 lots to 208,600 lots. The downstream procurement was cautious [21] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic zinc ingot inventory decreased, and the spot trading improved [22] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the domestic zinc concentrate supply is still loose, and the smelting plant is profitable. The consumption in April is expected to be boosted [25] - **Trading Strategy**: The zinc price runs strongly in the short - term and can be shorted on highs in the long - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [26] Lead - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Lead 2505 rose 1.97% to 16,800 yuan/ton, and the position of the Shanghai Lead Index decreased by 7,357 lots to 81,800 lots. The spot price increased, and the supply and demand were weak [28] - **Related Information**: As of April 10, the domestic lead ingot inventory decreased [29] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the supply of primary lead may decrease due to maintenance, and the raw materials of secondary lead smelters are in short supply. The consumption is weak, and attention should be paid to imports [30] - **Trading Strategy**: The lead price may rebound in the short - term, and there is a risk of further decline. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][33] Nickel - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai Nickel NI2505 fell 2,690 to 121,600 yuan/ton, and the position of the index increased by 7,287 lots. The spot premium decreased [35] - **Related Information**: The EU announced counter - measures against US tariffs, and the Fed's attitude towards interest rate cuts is cautious [36] - **Logic Analysis**: The short - term raw materials are tight, and the spot premium is strong. The medium - term supply may be in surplus, and it is recommended to short after the rebound [37] - **Trading Strategy**: The nickel price is weak, wait and see for arbitrage and options [38][39][40] Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2505 contract fell 35 to 12,675 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 734 lots. The spot price range is 12,700 - 13,200 yuan/ton for cold - rolled and 12,700 - 12,800 yuan/ton for hot - rolled [43] - **Related Information**: The EU may impose import restrictions on stainless steel [44] - **Logic Analysis**: The nickel price is weak, and the stainless steel demand is poor. It is expected to be weak in the short - term [45] - **Trading Strategy**: The price fluctuates weakly, and pay attention to domestic stimulus policies. Wait and see for arbitrage [46][47] Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai Tin 2505 contract closed at 257,200 yuan/ton, down 2,220 yuan/ton, and the position increased by 392 lots to 77,660 lots. The spot price decreased [49] - **Related Information**: The Bisie tin mine in Congo (Kinshasa) is resuming production, and Indonesia may increase the mining royalty rate. The Myanmar earthquake affects the resumption of production [50][52][53] - **Logic Analysis**: The resumption of production in Congo (Kinshasa) affects the price, and the supply in Indonesia and Myanmar is uncertain. The downward space of the tin price may be limited [54] - **Trading Strategy**: The supply contradiction is weakened, and the macro - sentiment improves. Be cautious in operation and wait and see for options [55][56] Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures main contract opened slightly higher and fluctuated narrowly, closing at 9,555 yuan/ton. The spot price of some grades decreased [58] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries, and a 100,000 - ton industrial silicon project was put into operation [59] - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory is high, and the price is difficult to reverse. The cost decreases, and the short - term price may rebound [60] - **Trading Strategy**: Operate within the range, wait and see for options, and participate in the reverse arbitrage of Si2511 and Si2512 [61] Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures main contract opened high and closed low, closing at 42,190 yuan/ton, down 1.01%. The spot price of some enterprises decreased [62] - **Related Information**: Trump suspended tariffs on some countries [63][64] - **Logic Analysis**: In April, the polysilicon industry will reduce inventory. There are risks of insufficient warehouse receipts and falling spot prices. Adjust the trading strategy [65] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long in the short - term and avoid short - selling. Hold the positive arbitrage of PS2506 and PS2511, and hold the reverse arbitrage of PS2511 and PS2512 [66] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2505 contract rose 1,060 to 70,540 yuan/ton, and the position of the index decreased by 4,973 lots. The spot price increased [67] - **Related Information**: A photovoltaic project was signed [68] - **Logic Analysis**: The trade war may affect lithium battery exports. The supply is expected to increase after May, and the price may fluctuate weakly [69][71] - **Trading Strategy**: Close short positions appropriately below 70,000, enter the market again on rebounds, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [72]

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report (Lead) [1] - Date: April 8, 2025 [1] - Institution: Hongyuan Futures Research Institute [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The downstream is affected by the off - season, with weak inventory preparation and light market trading. The supply side has both increases and decreases, and the fundamentals have insufficient support for lead prices. With the intensification of the US tariff policy on the macro - level, although the policy itself has little impact on the lead market, market risk - aversion sentiment has risen, and lead prices are under pressure to fall. It is expected that lead prices will be mainly sorted at a low level in the short term, with an operating range of 16,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots decreased by 2.02% to 16,975 yuan/ton; the closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract decreased by 2.92% to 17,100 yuan/ton; the London lead closing price (electronic disk) decreased by 5.90% to 1,906 US dollars/ton [15] - **Basis**: Data on the basis, Shanghai lead spot premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, and the difference between consecutive contracts are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [16][18][22][23] 2. Increases and Decreases Coexist, and Primary Lead Operation Fluctuates Slightly - **Refinery Situation**: Domestic lead concentrate processing fees remained flat, with the domestic TC at 650 yuan/metal ton and the imported TC at - 20 US dollars/dry ton. The mine end was continuously in short supply, and there was no expectation of adjustment in market TC quotes. Refinery profits recovered, reaching 69 yuan/ton as of March 28 [31] - **Primary Lead Operating Rate**: The primary lead operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 61.48%. In April, electrolytic lead maintenance and restart coexisted, and the output was expected to be the same as that in March. If lead prices continued to fall, refineries might cut production [32][37] - **Weekly Output of Deliverable Primary Lead Smelters**: The total weekly output of deliverable primary lead smelters decreased from 49,525 tons in the week of March 28 to 46,995 tons this week due to factors such as refinery maintenance [40] 3. The Operation of Secondary Lead Recovers, but the Raw Material Problem Remains Unsolved - **Waste Battery Prices**: As of April 7, the average price of waste batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 175 yuan/ton month - on - month [48] - **Secondary Lead Profits**: As of April 3, the comprehensive profit and loss of large - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 200 yuan/ton, and that of small - and medium - scale secondary lead enterprises was - 422 yuan/ton [54] - **Raw Material and Finished Product Inventories**: As of April 4, secondary lead raw material inventory was 17.91 tons, and finished product inventory was 10,440 tons. Refineries stocked up before the festival, but waste battery supplies were still tight, and downstream demand decreased during the festival, leading to inventory accumulation [58] - **Secondary Lead Operating Rate**: The secondary lead enterprise operating rate increased by 3.14 percentage points to 62.46%. As of last Friday, the weekly output of secondary lead was 67,400 tons. Some refineries in Anhui increased their operation due to more raw material arrivals, while operations in Henan, Jiangsu, and Inner Mongolia were relatively stable [61] 4. The Off - Season Intensifies, and Battery Operation Declines - **Lead Battery Operating Rate**: The lead battery operating rate decreased by 3.65 percentage points to 70.21%. Affected by the off - season and rising prices of auxiliary materials such as antimony and tin, battery enterprises' production enthusiasm was low, and some enterprises chose to stop production or adjust their production plans [70] 5. Import and Export Profit Windows are Closed - **Export and Import Situation**: As of March 28, the export of refined lead suffered a loss of about 2,700 yuan/ton. As of April 7, the import profit was - 117.59 yuan/ton, and the import profit window was closed [79] 6. Social Inventory Decreases Slightly - **Domestic Social Inventory**: As of April 3, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five locations was 70,000 tons, showing a decrease. The decline in primary lead enterprise operation and pre - festival inventory preparation by downstream enterprises led to a slight decrease in social inventory [89] - **SHFE and LME Inventories**: As of April 3, SHFE refined lead inventory was 65,800 tons, a decrease month - on - month. As of March 21, LME inventory was 235,850 tons, showing an increase [92] - **Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Data on the monthly supply - demand balance of lead from January 2024 to February 2025 are presented, including primary lead output, secondary lead output, export volume, import volume, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and comprehensive inventory [93]