Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LME lead inventory has decreased from a high level, but the overall inventory is still high. With the news of Citigroup's plan to extract a large amount of lead from Singapore warehouses, the market sentiment has shifted from the weak reality of LME lead oversupply to the strong expectation of inventory reduction. The lead ingot spot import window has opened, and overseas lead ingots can be smoothly transferred to China, alleviating the overseas inventory accumulation pressure, leading to a rebound in LME lead [2]. - After the National Day in China, the downstream consumption of lead has been good. The production reduction of primary and secondary lead smelters has led to a shortage of market supply, and the low lead price has stimulated downstream purchasing. The battery enterprises' inventory has decreased, and their production has recovered after the holiday, with good orders and a slight increase in battery prices. The domestic lead ingot inventory accumulation is less than expected. The cost - side support of lead has strengthened, and the actual resumption of secondary lead production is slower than expected, not exerting much downward pressure on Shanghai lead. The news of environmental inspections in Hebei has further stimulated the entry of long - position funds, breaking the previous stalemate and causing Shanghai lead to break through the previous consolidation range [3]. - In the future, the shift of capital sentiment should be closely monitored. Against the backdrop of the US disrupting the global supply chain and the government shutdown, funds are flowing into precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The news of Citigroup's extraction of lead from Singapore warehouses has opened up upward space for LME lead. The external market may drive the domestic market to rise. Technically, Shanghai lead is expected to break through the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. However, due to factors such as the competitiveness of lithium batteries, pre - consumption caused by "trade - in" in China, and the impact of tariffs on battery exports, as well as the expected increase in secondary lead production after the lead price rises, the high - price range of Shanghai lead in the fourth quarter is expected to be 18,300 - 18,500 yuan/ton [4]. 3) Summary by Related Contents News - Citigroup plans to extract a large amount of lead from LME - approved Singapore warehouses as it seeks other rent - sharing transactions [2]. - Hebei will control incoming vehicles, and vehicles of China V emission standard and below are not allowed to enter factories. The transportation of waste materials and lead ingots in local secondary lead enterprises and lead - acid battery enterprises is affected, and the transportation cycle is extended [2]. Market Situation Analysis - As of October 23, 2025, the LME lead inventory has decreased to 239,750 tons, with a high proportion of cancelled warrants (68.1%). The opening of the lead ingot import window has alleviated the overseas inventory pressure [2]. - After the National Day in China, the downstream consumption of lead is good. The reduction in primary and secondary lead production has led to a shortage of supply, and the low lead price has stimulated purchasing. Battery enterprises' production has recovered, and the inventory accumulation of lead ingots is less than expected [3]. - In the primary lead sector, some enterprises have复产 and减产, and the pre - winter storage of some smelters has intensified the shortage of lead concentrates, leading to a decrease in lead concentrate TC and stronger cost - side support [3]. - In the secondary lead sector, the actual resumption of production is slower than expected, and the price difference between refined and scrap lead fluctuates in the range of 50 - 75 yuan/ton, not exerting much downward pressure on Shanghai lead [3]. Future Price Forecast - The shift of capital sentiment is crucial. Funds are flowing into precious metals and non - ferrous metals. The news of Citigroup's lead extraction has opened up upward space for LME lead, and the external market may drive the domestic market to rise [4]. - Technically, Shanghai lead is expected to break through the previous high of 17,800 yuan/ton. However, due to various factors, the high - price range of Shanghai lead in the fourth quarter is expected to be 18,300 - 18,500 yuan/ton [4].

Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoint - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth drivers Overall, the lead price is in a range - bound pattern due to low processing fees at the mine end and tight supply of used batteries in some regions The expected trading range for this week is between 16,900 yuan/ton and 17,220 yuan/ton [3] Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 23, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.73/ton The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 125 yuan/ton to 17,125 yuan/ton The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -10.00 yuan/ton, the SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,250 yuan/ton, the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 150 yuan/ton to 17,225 yuan/ton, and the SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 175 yuan/ton to 17,275 yuan/ton The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at -50 yuan/ton, and the prices of used electric vehicle batteries, used white shells, and used black shells remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, 10,150 yuan/ton, and 10,425 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures Market - On October 23, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,160 yuan/ton and closed at 17,615 yuan/ton, up 455 yuan/ton from the previous trading day The trading volume was 74,008 lots, an increase of 44,997 lots from the previous trading day, and the open interest was 23,288 lots, a decrease of 3,259 lots from the previous trading day The intraday price fluctuated between 17,160 yuan/ton and 17,760 yuan/ton In the night session, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,565 yuan/ton and closed at 17,510 yuan/ton, up 0.52% from the afternoon close [2] Inventory - On October 23, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 32,000 tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous week As of October 23, the LME lead inventory was 239,750 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - Option strategy: Sell wide - straddles [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Report gives a neutral rating for the lead industry [3] 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although terminal consumption has slightly rebounded under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth highlights. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some regions is also tight. Therefore, the lead price is showing a range - bound pattern, with an expected trading range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Spot Market - On October 22, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$39.69/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium, SMM Guangdong lead price, SMM Henan lead price, and SMM Tianjin lead price all remained unchanged. The lead refined - scrap price difference, waste electric vehicle battery price, waste white - shell battery price, and waste black - shell battery price also remained unchanged [1] 3.1.2 Futures Market - On October 22, 2025, the main SHFE lead contract opened at 17,125 yuan/ton, closed at 17,160 yuan/ton (unchanged from the previous trading day), with a trading volume of 29,011 lots (a decrease of 14,526 lots from the previous day) and an open interest of 26,547 lots (a decrease of 7,009 lots). During the night session, it opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from the afternoon close. The SMM1 lead price remained unchanged from the previous day. Different regions had different pricing strategies for lead. The regional supply of lead ingots remained tight, and with the approaching end of the current - month long - term contracts, the supply of spot goods was limited. Some downstream buyers made purchases as needed, while others waited for the execution of new - month long - term contracts [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - On October 22, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 22, the LME lead inventory was 244,125 tons, a decrease of 3,175 tons from the previous trading day [2] 3.2 Strategy - The lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week. The recommended option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Although terminal consumption has slightly recovered under the influence of the "Golden September and Silver October" period, there is still a lack of major growth drivers. The processing fees for lead ore remain low, and the supply of waste batteries in some areas is tight. As a result, the lead price is currently in a range - bound oscillation pattern, with an expected oscillation range of 16,900 - 17,220 yuan/ton this week [3] Summary by Directory Market News and Key Data Spot Market - On October 21, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.78/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium remained unchanged at -20.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead spot price increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead spot price increased by 75 yuan/ton to 17,075 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium increased by 50 yuan/ton to 17,100 yuan/ton. The lead concentrate - scrap lead price difference remained unchanged at -25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged at 10,000 yuan/ton, the price of waste white - shell batteries remained unchanged at 10,150 yuan/ton, and the price of waste black - shell batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,425 yuan/ton [1] Futures Market - On October 21, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,130 yuan/ton and closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,537 lots, an increase of 15,881 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 33,556 lots, a decrease of 4,639 lots. The intraday price fluctuated, with a high of 17,210 yuan/ton and a low of 17,110 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,150 yuan/ton and closed at 17,160 yuan/ton, down 0.06% from the afternoon close. According to SMM, the SMM1 lead price rose 25 yuan/ton the previous day. Lead smelters in Henan offered a premium of 50 - 100 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead, and holders offered a discount of 80 - 60 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. Smelters in Hunan offered a premium of 50 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead for ex - factory sales. Holders in Yunnan offered a discount of 200 - 180 yuan/ton over SMM1 lead or a discount of 350 yuan/ton to the SHFE 2511 contract for ex - factory sales. Downstream battery enterprises maintained rigid demand procurement, the supply of electrolytic lead in some areas was slightly tight, and the trading of scattered orders was fair [2] Inventory - On October 21, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 38,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. As of October 21, the LME lead inventory was 247,300 tons, a decrease of 3,100 tons from the previous trading day [2] Strategy - The investment strategy is neutral. The option strategy is to sell a wide strangle [3][4]

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a daily report on non - ferrous metals dated October 21, 2025, focusing on various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomically, Sino - US trade relations ease, and the 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is being watched. Fundamentally, copper mine supply disturbances increase. SMM expects a decrease in electrolytic copper production in October. Consumption shows "peak season without peak". The recommended trading strategies are long on dips, continue to hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [2][4][5]. - **Alumina**: The supply - demand surplus will become more significant after downstream electrolytic aluminum plants complete their stockpiling. Some small - scale production cuts and maintenance have started, and more are expected in November. The price is expected to bottom out around 2800 yuan. Strategies include short - term low - level consolidation and waiting on spreads and options [11][12][13]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Macroeconomic factors will drive the price this week. The consumption resilience in the fundamentals provides support. The strategy is to be bullish on dips and cautious on chasing highs [17][18]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price. High social inventory and warehouse receipts may limit the upside. The price is expected to be strong in the short - term. Strategies include being bullish on dips and waiting on spreads and options [24][25]. - **Zinc**: The import zinc ore loss widens, and domestic processing fees decline. The supply of refined zinc may increase, and consumption may weaken. The price shows an external - strong and internal - weak pattern. Strategies include waiting on all trading types [27][31][33]. - **Lead**: Downstream lead - storage enterprise orders improve, but production may increase in mid - to - late October, and the price may fall. Strategies include holding short positions and selling out - of - the - money call options [38][39]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and there is cost support, but the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside. The price is expected to oscillate widely with a downward center. Strategies include shorting at the upper limit of the oscillation range and selling a wide - straddle combination [43][45][46]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is below the cost, and the terminal demand is not optimistic. It may keep a weak oscillation pattern. Strategies include weak oscillation and waiting on spreads [51][52]. - **Tin**: Sino - US trade tensions ease, and the Fed may cut interest rates. The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly. The price may oscillate around the integer level. Strategies include waiting on options [58][59][60]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Polysilicon production cuts in November are bearish for demand. The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply. Strategies include waiting for a full correction [63][64][65]. - **Polysilicon**: The supply - demand balance will improve in November. The short - term correction space is limited. Strategies include buying on dips, holding reverse spreads, and adjusting option strategies [70][71][72]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand. The price's oscillation center moves up. Strategies include being bullish on the oscillation, waiting on spreads, and selling out - of - the - money put options [74][75]. Group 4: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai copper 2512 rose 0.16% to 85400 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased by 2 lots. The spot price showed different trends in different regions [2]. - **Important Information**: The 4th Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee is held, and Japan, Spain, and South Korea express concerns about copper processing and refining fees [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors affect the market, and the export window may open again [2]. - **Trading Strategies**: Long on dips, hold inter - market positive spreads, and wait on options [5]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The futures price of alumina 2601 fell 6 yuan to 2810 yuan/ton, and the position decreased. The spot price decreased in most regions [6]. - **Related Information**: There are procurement, production adjustment, inventory, and import - export data [7][8][9][10]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand surplus becomes more obvious, and production cuts are expected [11]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short - term low - level consolidation, wait on spreads and options [12][13]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai aluminum 2512 rose 35 yuan to 20965 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose in different regions [15]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, inventory, and economic data [15][16]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic and fundamental factors support the price [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, cautious on chasing highs [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The futures price of cast aluminum alloy 2512 rose 60 yuan to 20460 yuan/ton. The spot price was stable in most regions [20]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, trade talks, warehouse receipt, inventory, and import - export data [20][21][23]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroeconomic factors drive the price, and supply - demand factors affect the upside [24]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on dips, wait on spreads and options [24][25]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai zinc 2512 rose 0.39% to 21970 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot market was weak [26]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory, production, and import - export data of zinc mines and refined zinc [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import loss of zinc ore widens, and the supply of refined zinc may increase [31]. - **Trading Strategies**: Wait on all trading types [33]. Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai lead 2512 rose 0.2% to 17155 yuan/ton, and the index position increased. The spot price rose, and downstream procurement was active [35]. - **Related Information**: There are inventory and import - export data [36][37]. - **Logic Analysis**: Downstream demand improves, but production may increase [38]. - **Trading Strategies**: Hold short positions, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money call options [39]. Nickel - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai nickel NI2512 rose 460 to 121380 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot premium was stable [41]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export, production, and consumption data [42]. - **Logic Analysis**: The macro - environment fluctuates, and the supply - demand surplus restricts the upside [43][45]. - **Trading Strategies**: Short at the upper limit of the oscillation range, wait on spreads, and sell a wide - straddle combination [46][47][48]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The futures price of stainless steel SS2512 rose 55 to 12665 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price was in a certain range [50]. - **Important Information**: There are import - export and procurement price data [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is below the cost, and demand is not optimistic [51]. - **Trading Strategies**: Weak oscillation, wait on spreads [52]. Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of Shanghai tin 2511 rose 1920 yuan/ton or 0.69% to 280870 yuan/ton, and the position increased. The spot price rose, and demand recovery was weak [55]. - **Related Information**: There are meetings, cooperation agreements, and mobile phone market data [56][57]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of tin ore is tight, and demand recovers slowly [58]. - **Trading Strategies**: Oscillate around the integer level, wait on options [59][60]. Industrial Silicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [63]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price is under short - term pressure but may not fall deeply [64]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Wait for a full correction, no arbitrage and option strategies for now [65][66][67]. Polysilicon - **Important Information**: Polysilicon production cuts are expected in November [69]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply - demand balance will improve, and short - term correction space is limited [70]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Buy on dips, hold reverse spreads, and adjust option strategies [71][72]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The futures price of lithium carbonate 2601 fell 200 to 75980 yuan/ton, and the index position decreased. The spot price rose [73]. - **Important Information**: There are production plan changes, import - export, and new energy vehicle production data [74]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventory and warehouse receipts decrease, indicating strong demand [74]. - **Trading Strategies**: Bullish on the oscillation, wait on spreads, and sell out - of - the - money put options [75]. Group 5: Price and Related Data - There are daily data tables for various non - ferrous metals including copper, alumina, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, showing price, spread, profit, and inventory data [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85] - There are also various graphs showing price trends, spreads, and inventory changes of different non - ferrous metals [87][90][94][98][105][107][110][117][119][124][126][130][132][138][142][146][150][154][157][162][165][170][174]

| | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 17100 | -0.06% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1986 | 0.46% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 32242 | -9015 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 4671 | -4614 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 41899 | -2133 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 152886 | 147 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | -10 | -10 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -43.75 | -11.75 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -30 | -120 | 进口升贴水（美 | 107.5 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -267.1 | 3.96 | 沪铅连三进口盈亏 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Global market turmoil was triggered by Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China on October 10, 2025, leading to sharp drops in stocks, commodities, and cryptocurrencies [11]. - The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting, and economic data release affected [12]. - China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, showing continued improvement in the manufacturing sector, while the central bank increased its gold reserves for the 11th consecutive month [15][16]. - Metal prices were generally affected by macro - events. Copper prices are expected to adjust in the short - term but remain optimistic in the long - run; aluminum prices may face short - term pressure; zinc prices are likely to remain weakly volatile; lead prices are expected to oscillate within a range; nickel prices are subject to supply uncertainties; tin prices are supported by supply tightness and demand recovery; industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon markets are in a wait - and - see state; and lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - **Global Market Flash Crash**: On the night of October 10, Trump's announcement of a 100% tariff on China led to a global market sell - off. US stocks, crude oil, metal futures, and cryptocurrencies all tumbled. The US will raise the tariff on Chinese goods to 130% and implement key software export controls on November 1 [11]. - **US Government "Shutdown"**: The US government "shutdown" entered its 10th day, with federal employee lay - offs starting. The Department of Labor's data release was affected, and high - frequency economic data was difficult to obtain [12]. - **China's Economic Data**: China's September official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.0%, and the composite PMI output index was 50.6%. The central bank increased its gold reserves by 40,000 ounces in September, the 11th consecutive monthly increase [15][16]. - **US Economic Data**: US economic data in September was generally weak. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000; the ISM manufacturing PMI contracted for the seventh consecutive month; and the ISM services PMI was 50, significantly lower than expected [19][20][21] 3.2 Metal Market Copper - **Price Trend**: Copper prices showed a pattern of rising and then falling. After Freeport declared force majeure at its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia in late September, prices rose significantly but were limited by weak demand. On October 10, due to the escalation of Sino - US trade tensions, copper prices dropped sharply [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be weakly volatile and may adjust further. However, in the long - run, the supply - demand balance remains tight, and prices are likely to stabilize after the short - term adjustment. It is recommended to reduce long - position holdings to avoid short - term risks [2] Aluminum - **Price Trend**: Aluminum prices fell from high levels. The price of Guinea's bauxite decreased, and the alumina market was under pressure. Trump's tariff signal led to short - term pressure on aluminum prices [2]. - **Market Outlook**: Although short - term prices may continue to decline, the demand peak season remains unchanged, and downstream开工 rates are expected to rise. It is recommended that long - position holders pay attention to risk avoidance and monitor the development of events [2] Zinc - **Price Trend**: Zinc prices rose and then fell. The weak US employment data increased the market's expectation of an interest rate cut, leading to a rebound in zinc prices. However, the overall terminal consumption was weak [2]. - **Market Outlook**: The domestic refined zinc output is expected to remain high, but demand is weak. It is expected that zinc prices will remain weakly volatile, with the main contract operating in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based short - biased trading [2] Lead - **Price Trend**: Lead prices oscillated horizontally. The domestic lead supply showed a downward trend, and the price recovered after a sharp drop. However, due to the new round of Sino - US trade confrontation, there is a risk of sharp fluctuations [2]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that lead prices will oscillate within the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton. It is recommended to conduct range - based trading [2] Nickel - **Price Trend**: Nickel prices oscillated within a range. The new RKAB approval policy in Indonesia has brought uncertainties to the nickel ore market. The supply of refined nickel is in an oversupply situation, and the price of nickel iron has limited upside potential [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to wait and see or moderately hold short positions at high prices. The main contract of nickel is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 122,000 yuan/ton; for stainless steel, range - based trading is recommended, with the main contract operating in the range of 12,600 - 13,000 yuan/ton [3] Tin - **Price Trend**: Tin prices oscillated within an upward channel. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream semiconductor and photovoltaic industries are showing signs of recovery. However, the short - term tariff increase expectation has a negative impact on prices [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is recommended to conduct range - based trading, with the reference range for the SHFE tin 11 contract being 260,000 - 290,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply resumption and downstream demand recovery [3] Industrial Silicon and Polycrystalline Silicon - **Price Trend**: Industrial silicon prices fluctuated widely, and polycrystalline silicon prices oscillated at high levels. The production and inventory of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon showed different trends, and the photovoltaic industry's anti - involution policy has not been implemented [3]. - **Market Outlook**: Given the current supply - demand expectations for October, it is recommended to wait and see until the policy becomes clear [3] Lithium Carbonate - **Price Trend**: Lithium carbonate prices oscillated horizontally. The supply is in a tight - balance state, and the demand from the energy storage terminal is good. However, there are risks related to mining permits [3]. - **Market Outlook**: It is expected that the price will continue to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to trade cautiously and pay attention to the progress of mining permits in Yichun and the resumption of production at the Ningde Jianxiawo lithium mine [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Absolute price: Cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View - After the National Day holiday, there may be a situation where the operating rate of secondary lead production recovers while battery consumption declines slightly. However, the tight supply pattern at the mine end remains unchanged. Coupled with the high probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and the driving effect of the sharp rise of precious metals on various non - ferrous metal varieties, it is recommended to mainly use bargain - hunting buying hedging for lead prices at present [3] 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data - **Spot**: On October 9, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$37.30/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price remained unchanged at 16,800 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. SMM lead spot prices in different regions had different changes, and lead scrap prices remained unchanged [1] - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,000 yuan/ton and closed at 17,115 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 40,199 lots, a decrease of 5,406 lots from the previous trading day, and the position was 41,077 lots, a decrease of 1,556 lots. The night - session closing price rose 0.44% from the afternoon closing price. After the holiday, the lead ingot inventory of smelters in Henan and Hunan increased, and the market transaction was weak [2] - **Inventory**: On October 9, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 37,000 tons, a decrease of 5,200 tons compared with the previous week. As of October 9, the LME lead inventory was 237,450 tons, an increase of 1,375 tons compared with the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to mainly use bargain - hunting buying hedging for lead prices [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the lead industry is cautiously bullish [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The lead market trading has become lighter, and the lead price maintains a volatile pattern. Although the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream battery enterprises is relatively weak due to the approaching National Day holiday, the lead ore supply remains relatively tight. Coupled with the overall positive impact of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle on non - ferrous metals, it is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Spot - On September 29, 2025, the LME lead spot premium was -$41.63 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot spot price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,800 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Shanghai lead spot premium changed by 25 yuan/ton to 0.00 yuan/ton. The SMM Guangdong lead price decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton, and the SMM Henan lead price also decreased by 125 yuan/ton to 16,825 yuan/ton. The SMM Tianjin lead spot premium changed by - 113 yuan/ton to 16,850 yuan/ton. The lead refined - scrap price difference remained unchanged at - 25 yuan/ton. The price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased by 25 yuan/ton to 10,000 yuan/ton, while the prices of waste white shells and waste black shells remained unchanged at 10,075 yuan/ton and 10,350 yuan/ton respectively [1] Futures - On September 29, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,065 yuan/ton and closed at 16,855 yuan/ton, a decrease of 255 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 76,219 lots, an increase of 26,944 lots compared to the previous trading day, and the position was 48,797 lots, a decrease of 11,865 lots compared to the previous trading day. The intraday price fluctuated, with the highest point reaching 17,110 yuan/ton and the lowest point reaching 16,845 yuan/ton. In the night session, the main contract of Shanghai lead opened at 17,375 yuan/ton and closed at 17,365 yuan/ton, a rise of 65 yuan/ton compared to the afternoon closing price [2] Inventory - On September 29, 2025, the total SMM lead ingot inventory was 42,000 tons, a decrease of 4,300 tons compared to the same period last week. As of September 29, the LME lead inventory was 218,825 tons, a decrease of 600 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] Strategy - It is recommended to use the strategy of buying on dips for hedging in the lead market, with the buying range between 16,950 yuan/ton and 17,000 yuan/ton [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Grasberg's unexpected production cut will change the global copper supply pattern in the next 12 - 15 months, and the copper's medium - term allocation value is still optimistic [1] - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and it's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern [1] - Zinc prices oscillated this week, with a short - term unilateral weak oscillation. It's recommended to wait and see, and partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] - The fundamentals of nickel and stainless steel remain weak, and there is a certain motivation for price support on the policy side [3][4][5] - Lead prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. Short - term observation is recommended, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] - Industrial silicon's supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price is expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] - The price of lithium carbonate oscillated this week. After the hype of supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high, and the downward price support is strong before the disturbances [11] Summary by Metals Copper - Freeport Indonesia's subsidiary's accident postponed Grasberg's复产, reducing the 2026 copper guidance by about 35% (equivalent to about 270,000 tons of copper and about 1.04 million ounces of gold) [1] - The adjusted copper mine supply has no obvious increase this year, and there will be no increase next year without the复产 of the Panama mine [1] - Fund long positions are increasing, and the copper's allocation enthusiasm is expected to rise. It's advisable to consider laying out medium - term long positions below 79,000 - 79,500 or selling put options below 78,000 [1] Aluminum - Supply increased slightly, and downstream start - up improved. There was a slight destocking in September, and a seasonal slight inventory build - up is expected in October [1] - It's advisable to hold at low prices under the low - inventory pattern and pay attention to long - short spreads and cross - market arbitrage [1] Zinc - Domestic TC decreased further, and imported TC increased further. The domestic zinc ore will be marginally tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2] - The smelting end will repair slightly in October. Attention should be paid to the impact of sulfuric acid and silver prices on total profits [2] - Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is average. The current pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic may further diverge [2] - The short - term unilateral trend is weakly oscillating, and it's recommended to wait and see. Partial profit - taking can be considered for long - short spreads [2] Nickel and Stainless Steel - For nickel, steel mills are expected to resume production slightly. The fundamentals are weak, and the policy side has a certain price - support motivation [3] - For stainless steel, the situation is similar to nickel, with weak fundamentals and policy - side price - support motivation [3][4][5] Lead - This week, lead prices rose due to macro - factors. Supply is affected by low scrap volume, tight waste batteries, and low smelting profits [7] - Demand improved slightly due to National Day stocking, but the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the overall destocking strength needs verification [7] - Lead prices are expected to oscillate weakly next week, ranging from 16,800 to 17,000 [7] Tin - Tin prices had a wide - range oscillation this week. The supply side is undergoing marginal repair, and the demand side is mainly rigid - supported [10] - The domestic fundamentals are short - term supply - demand dual - weak. It's recommended to wait and see in the short term, and short - selling can be considered lightly when the price is above 275,000 yuan/ton [10] Industrial Silicon - Xinjiang's leading enterprises continued to resume production this week. The supply and demand will remain balanced in September and October, and the price will oscillate at the cycle bottom [11] Lithium Carbonate - This week, lithium carbonate prices oscillated. The raw material side has strong price - support willingness, and the lithium salt side's pre - holiday stocking is almost over [11] - Lithium carbonate is still in the capacity expansion cycle, with a surplus in static supply - demand. After the supply - side disturbances, the price elasticity is high [11]