1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rise in nickel prices is led by long - term expectations. Although the price has received regulatory attention after consecutive sharp increases and may experience corrections approaching the Spring Festival, the upward trend is not over, and a low - buying strategy is recommended. For stainless steel, the supply - demand is tight with cost support, and a low - buying strategy is also advised after price corrections [7][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel**: Global visible inventory reached 352,000 tons, increasing by 780 tons this week, with domestic social inventory up 2,784 tons and LME inventory down 2,044 tons. Jinchuan nickel is under tight supply, and its premium remains around 9,000 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: Social inventory is decreasing, and warehouse receipts are expected to increase in the future. Supply - side raw material shortages, especially for hot - rolled products, may lead to a downward revision of cold - rolled production schedules. Demand - side pre - Spring Festival stocking has not started, but due to strong bullish sentiment, spot prices are rising with hoarding behavior [10][19]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In 2025, refined nickel production increased by 17% year - on - year to 392,700 tons. Net imports were 59,000 tons, compared with a net export of 23,600 tons in the same period last year. Total supply was 450,000 tons, a 45% year - on - year increase. In January, high prices are expected to further boost production, and net imports are also expected to increase [27]. - **Demand**: From January to December, pure nickel consumption increased by 2% year - on - year to 291,000 tons. Electroplating demand is in the off - season, and overall consumption growth has slowed [30]. 3.2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials - **Nickel Ore**: Indonesia's nickel ore quota is tentatively set at 2.5 - 2.6 billion tons. Market sentiment for overseas nickel mines is positive, and prices are rising. The Indonesian government is still processing the approval of mining company work plans and budgets [31][32]. - **NPI**: NPI production is recovering, with prices rising and profit margins improving. Some production lines are switching from NPI to high - grade nickel ice due to falling NPI prices [33][34]. - **Chromium - Based Materials**: Chromium - based prices are rising. Zimbabwe will impose a 10% tax on chromium exports starting from January 1, 2026, leading to a continuous rebound in chromium ore prices [38][44]. - **Cost Estimation**: Estimated cold - rolled cash cost is around 14,400 yuan/ton, and integrated cost is about 13,900 yuan/ton [47]. 3.2.3 Stainless Steel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: In 2025, the combined stainless steel crude steel production of China and Indonesia is expected to be 45.06 million tons, a 4% year - on - year increase. In January, due to shortages of hot - rolled products, production schedules may be revised downward. China's stainless steel imports decreased by 21% year - on - year to 1.519 million tons, exports remained flat at 5.031 million tons, and net exports increased by 11% to 3.512 million tons [56]. - **Demand**: Shipbuilding production has a high growth rate, providing support for stainless steel demand. However, growth in other terminal sectors is not optimistic, especially in the real estate market [57][58]. 3.2.4 New Energy Automobiles - **Domestic Market**: In 2025, new energy vehicle production and sales were 16.626 million and 16.49 million respectively, a 29% and 28.2% year - on - year increase, with a penetration rate of 47.9%. In January 2026, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles decreased. Power battery production followed the trend of vehicle sales, and in January, the impact of export tax rebate reduction may mitigate the decline in battery production [63]. - **Global Market**: From January to November 2025, global new energy vehicle sales increased by 20.1% year - on - year to 18.39 million. European sales increased by 29.2% to 3.434 million, while US sales increased by 0.7% to 1.39 million. China's new energy vehicle exports from January to December 2025 were 2.583 million, a 103% year - on - year increase [68]. 3.2.5 Nickel Sulfate Market - **Production**: In 2025, nickel sulfate production decreased by 4.3% year - on - year to 354,000 nickel tons. Ternary precursor production increased by 6% to 903,000 tons, and ternary cathode material production increased by 19% to 686,000 tons. In January, demand slowed down, but prices followed the upward trend of refined nickel [70]. - **Raw Materials**: In 2025, Indonesia's MHP production increased by 41% to 444,000 tons, and high - grade nickel ice production decreased by 18% to 224,000 tons. Rising sulfur prices increased MHP production costs, but strong nickel sulfate demand boosted intermediate product prices and production [76]. 3.3 Trading Logic and Strategies - **Nickel**: For single - side trading, adopt a low - buying strategy after price corrections and stabilizations. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: For single - side trading, buy at low prices after corrections and stabilizations. For arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach [10].

Group 1 - Nickel industry stocks are experiencing significant gains, with Xinjiang Xinxin Mining up 7.89%, Zhongwei New Materials up 4.4%, and Likun Resources up 2.77% [1] - CITIC Securities reports that Indonesia's nickel production quota for 2026 is expected to be 250-260 million tons, a substantial decrease from 2025, potentially leading to a global nickel supply shortage of 200,000 tons and an increase in LME nickel prices to $22,000 per ton [1] - The regulatory environment in Indonesia is becoming stricter, which is likely to slow down the growth rate of nickel production and support a gradual recovery in nickel prices from their current lows [1] Group 2 - Likun Resources has established a complete industrial chain covering nickel trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1] - Zhongwei New Materials has made strategic investments in upstream nickel, phosphorus, and lithium resources globally since 2022, acquiring nickel laterite mines in Indonesia, lithium salt lakes in Argentina, and phosphorus mines in Guizhou [1] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines and two vanadium mines, along with a fluorite mine [1]

Group 1 - Nickel industry stocks have shown significant gains, with Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) up 7.89% to HKD 3.01, Zhongwei New Materials (300919) (02579) up 4.4% to HKD 39.88, and Likun Resources (02245) up 2.77% to HKD 27.5 [1] - CITIC Securities reports that the Indonesian government is expected to set the annual nickel ore production quota for 2026 at 250-260 million tons, a substantial decrease from the 2025 quota [1] - If the 2026 production quota is implemented, Indonesia's nickel output is projected to decline to 2.6-2.7 million tons, leading to a global nickel supply shortage of 200,000 tons and a potential increase in LME nickel prices to USD 22,000 per ton [1] - The regulatory environment for the mining industry in Indonesia is becoming increasingly stringent, which is expected to slow down the growth rate of nickel production and gradually improve nickel prices from the bottom [1] Group 2 - Likun Resources has established a complete industrial chain covering nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1] - Zhongwei New Materials has made strategic investments in upstream nickel, phosphorus, lithium, and other mineral resources globally since 2022, acquiring resources such as Indonesian laterite nickel ore, Argentine lithium salt lakes, and Guizhou phosphorus mines [1] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining fully owns four nickel-copper mines: Kalatongke, Huangshandong, Huangshan, and Xiangshan, as well as two vanadium mines: Xianghejie and Mujiahe, and the Kalchaer fluorite mine [1]

Group 1: Nickel Production and Regulation - The Indonesian government expects nickel ore production quotas for 2026 to be between 250 million tons and 260 million tons, a significant decrease from 2025's quotas [1] - The Indonesian government has adjusted the tax method for nickel ore from a fixed 10% to a floating range of 14%-19% [1] - New regulations have been introduced to strictly control the construction of new nickel pyrometallurgical smelting capacities, with penalties for illegal nickel mining in forest areas reaching up to 6.5 billion Indonesian Rupiah per hectare [1] - The Indonesian nickel mining association reported plans to impose a royalty tax of 1.5%-2% on cobalt [1] - Citic Securities predicts that if the 2026 production quotas are implemented, Indonesia's nickel output could decline to 2.6 million to 2.7 million tons, leading to a global nickel supply shortage of 200,000 tons and a potential increase in LME nickel prices to $22,000 per ton [1] Group 2: Company Developments - Liqin Resources (02245) has submitted application materials for a proposed A-share issuance to the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and has received an acceptance notice [2] - Zhongwei New Materials (02579) has been strategically investing in upstream nickel, phosphorus, and lithium resources globally since 2022, with expectations to self-supply 30,000 tons of metal nickel by 2026, potentially increasing profits by 200-300 million Yuan [2] - Xinjiang Xinxin Mining (03833) owns several nickel-copper mines and other mineral resources, indicating a diversified portfolio in the mining sector [2]

2026年01月26日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 | 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：强现实支撑，高位震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游工厂减产，盘面震荡偏强 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注现货成交情况 | 6 | 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 26 日 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 148,010 | 5,510 | 6,660 | 8,920 | 20,010 | 26,63 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant rise in nickel futures, with the main contract increasing nearly 5% to 149,290 yuan/ton on January 23, indicating a bullish trend in the nickel market [2] - Indonesia is expected to approve a production quota of approximately 260 million tons of nickel ore by 2026, which could create a supply-demand gap in the market, potentially leading to a rebound in nickel prices [2] - According to Zhongyou Securities, nickel has been one of the few metals absent from the bullish trend in the non-ferrous metals market in 2024, with only a 3% increase since the beginning of 2024, compared to significant gains in precious metals and other industrial metals [2] Group 2 - Likin Resources is identified as a leading global nickel enterprise, covering the entire nickel industry chain, starting from nickel ore trading and gradually transforming into a comprehensive industrial company [2] - The company has established a complete industry chain that includes nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [2] - As of the latest report, Likin Resources' stock price rose over 11%, reaching 26.42 HKD with a trading volume of 170 million HKD [3]

Core Insights - The global mining industry faces a significant challenge due to a lack of new greenfield copper mines, with a growing reliance on brownfield expansions to meet increasing copper demand for energy transition and technology sectors [1][2] Group 1: Research Findings - A study by the Sustainable Minerals Institute highlights the severity of the issue and the industry's dependence on brownfield mining, indicating that existing mines cannot meet the rising demand for copper alone [1] - The study covers data from 366 brownfield projects across 58 countries from 1998 to 2024, revealing that capital expenditures for brownfield projects are primarily driven by copper, which accounts for nearly half of total expenditures [2][3] - The number of new copper mines peaked around 2015, while production continues to rise despite a decline in new mine development [2] Group 2: Geographic Insights - Chile leads global brownfield development, accounting for 25.2% of total capital investment, followed by the United States at 11.4% and Australia at 10.1% [3] - The trend of large companies increasing mine exploration is evident globally, with significant shifts in exploration patterns observed in the Pacific and Southeast Asia, where the share of exploration rose from 27.3% in 2010 to 76.8% by 2024 [4] Group 3: Environmental and Social Considerations - Nearly 80% of brownfield mines are located in areas facing high-risk conditions, including water scarcity and weak governance [4] - Over 20% of mines are situated within 50 kilometers of ecologically pristine or partially modified areas, and more than half are located within 20 kilometers of biodiversity hotspots or protected areas [5]

当前全球镍产业链利润分配正经历深刻重构，行业呈现"资源为王"的鲜明特征。上游掌控印尼优质矿产 资源的企业凭借高自给率，在成本与定价上占据绝对主导权，利润高度集中。中游材料企业出现显著分 化：布局印尼湿法冶炼（MHP）、电积镍产能的一体化龙头，通过资源适配有效控制成本，并借助"金 属价格+加工费"模式转移压力；而缺乏资源保障的中小加工企业则面临巨大的成本侵蚀压力。市场情 绪层面，期货市场成交量能激增，资金积极做多，有效引领现货市场；现货端贸易商普遍惜售挺价，升 水持续走阔，期现市场的强联动进一步强化了全产业链的看涨预期。现货交投市场：畏高观望主导，询 盘活跃度有所降温，下游电池、不锈钢企业以刚性需求采购为主，节前补库订单构成主要支撑。内外盘 方面，伦镍受相同逻辑驱动同步走强，而我国高度依赖进口的格局使得进口窗口持续收窄，进一步加剧 了国内现货的紧张态势。 短期价格走势预测 ccmn沪镍走势：今日午盘后沪期镍上涨，沪期镍主力月2602合约开盘报141850元/吨，盘中最高报 150000元/吨，最低价报140850元/吨，收盘报148010元/吨，上涨5680元/吨，涨幅为3.99%，沪镍主力月 2602主力合约 ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Lygend Resources (02245) has risen over 11%, reaching HKD 26.42, with a trading volume of HKD 170 million, driven by positive developments in the nickel market [1] Group 1: Nickel Market Dynamics - On January 23, the main contract for nickel futures in Shanghai surged nearly 5%, reaching CNY 149,290 per ton [1] - Indonesia is expected to approve a production quota of approximately 260 million tons of nickel ore by 2026, which could impact global supply [1] - According to Zhongyou Securities, nickel has been one of the few metals absent from the ongoing bull market in non-ferrous metals in 2024, with only a 3% increase since the beginning of the year, significantly lagging behind precious metals and other industrial metals [1] Group 2: Company Overview - Lygend Resources is a leading global player in the nickel industry, covering the entire nickel supply chain [1] - The company started with nickel ore trading and has gradually transformed into a comprehensive industrial player, now encompassing nickel ore trading, smelting production, equipment manufacturing, and sales [1]

Group 1 - Nickel futures market shows a positive trend with LME nickel closing at $18,100, up $125/ton or 0.7% from the previous trading day, while domestic SHFE nickel also saw a slight increase of 400 yuan/ton, or 0.26% [1] - The macroeconomic environment is influencing market trading logic, with a shift from focusing on economic data to monetary policy expectations, driven by a weaker US dollar and robust performance in risk assets and commodities [2] - The current nickel market is primarily driven by strong supply contraction expectations, particularly due to potential mining quota adjustments in Indonesia, which could tighten supply from the world's largest nickel producer [3] Group 2 - Demand for high-purity nickel in the new energy battery sector remains strong, benefiting from short-term policy incentives, while the stainless steel sector is experiencing demand suppression due to high prices [3] - The market is characterized by cautious trading behavior, with traders reluctant to sell and downstream buyers purchasing based on demand, indicating a "strong expectation, weak reality" scenario [3] - Nickel prices are expected to maintain high volatility in the short term, with future trends dependent on the final impact of Indonesian policies and actual demand post-holiday [3]