Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, the Fed's expectation of interest - rate cuts drives the rebound of non - ferrous metals, but nickel is restricted by weak fundamentals and inventory pressure, so the rebound range of nickel prices is expected to be limited [1]. - For stainless steel, although the fundamentals are loose, there is support at the cost end, so the price is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 122,500 yuan/ton, 122,580 yuan/ton, 122,820 yuan/ton, and 122,480 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 700 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, 660 yuan/ton, and 680 yuan/ton compared to September 12 [2]. - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel's average price was 123,000 yuan/ton, 1 Jinchuan nickel's average price was 124,000 yuan/ton, and 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel)'s average price was 122,150 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: Nickel ore prices remained flat. Last week, the arrival volume of nickel ore decreased, and port inventories decreased. Nickel iron mills' loss margins narrowed. In September, domestic and Indonesian nickel iron production increased, and nickel iron inventories decreased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in September, and export profits expanded [1]. - **Demand**: Ternary material production decreased; stainless steel mills' production increased; alloy and electroplating demand was stable [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories increased, LME inventories decreased, social inventories increased, and bonded - area inventories decreased [1]. - **LME Market**: On September 15, 2025, LME 3 - month nickel's closing price (electronic trading) was 15,391 US dollars/ton, up 34 US dollars/ton. The trading volume was 7,041 lots, an increase of 2,045 lots [2]. Stainless Steel Market - **Futures Prices**: On September 15, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 12,800 yuan/ton, 12,960 yuan/ton, 13,070 yuan/ton, and 13,110 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - **Spot Prices**: 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price was 13,800 yuan/ton, 304/2B coil - rough (Wuxi) average price was 13,250 yuan/ton [2]. - **Supply**: Stainless steel production increased in September [1]. - **Demand**: Terminal demand was weak [1]. - **Cost**: High - nickel pig iron prices rose, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices remained flat [1]. - **Inventory**: SHFE inventories decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventories were 96,600 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons [1]. Industry News - Minmetals Resources (MMG) expects its $500 million acquisition of Anglo American's nickel mine assets to be approved by the EU, although the Brazilian competition regulator has launched an investigation into the deal [1]. Trading Strategies - For nickel, it is recommended to short at high levels after the interest - rate cut is implemented [1]. - For stainless steel, it is recommended to wait and see [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: The contradictions in the smelting end are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the news - related risks at the mine end [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between short - and long - term logics, and steel prices may fluctuate [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the market is under pressure [2][11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The industry inventory is accumulating, and the strategy is to short at high prices [2][15]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market information changes [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,980 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,950 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Many events occurred in Indonesia, including the trial production of the CNI nickel - iron project, environmental violations in the IMIP, plans to shorten mining quota periods, production suspensions in some nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and the takeover of a nickel - mine area by the forestry working group [4][5][7][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral view [10]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: Data on futures contracts (such as 2511 and 2601 contracts), spot prices, basis, and raw - material prices are provided [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased, and Zijin Mining's lithium - salt project was put into production [13][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish view [14]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: Information on futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, basis, prices, profits, inventories, and raw - material costs of industrial silicon and polysilicon is presented [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The three ministries and commissions issued the "National Industrial Resources Comprehensive Utilization Advanced and Applicable Process Technology Equipment Catalog (2025 Edition)" [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (slightly bearish), and that of polysilicon is 0 (neutral) [17].

Group 1 - Domestic nickel prices opened significantly lower on April 7, reaching a new low since April 2021, with prices nearing 115,000 yuan/ton [1] - As market pessimism gradually dissipates, domestic nickel prices have undergone a phase of valuation recovery, stabilizing around 120,000 yuan/ton [1] - Despite a general increase in industrial product prices due to "anti-involution" policies, nickel and downstream stainless steel prices remain in a weak and fluctuating state compared to other industrial products [1] Group 2 - Indonesia's nickel ore supply is becoming more relaxed, with approved mining quotas for 2025 increasing by over 22% to 36.4 million wet tons [2] - The actual nickel ore supply in Indonesia is expected to reach approximately 30 million wet tons in 2025, while total annual demand is around 26 million wet tons, indicating a shift from tight to relaxed supply conditions [2] - Domestic pure nickel production remains high, with August output at 35,200 tons and a cumulative total of 264,000 tons from January to August, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 25.84% [2] Group 3 - Global nickel inventories continue to rise, reaching 259,600 tons as of September 5, an increase of over 50,000 tons since the beginning of the year, marking a five-year high for this period [3] - Domestic nickel inventories, while down from their peak earlier in the year, remain elevated at 39,900 tons as of September 5, also at a historical high for this time [3] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has increased the number of deliverable pure nickel brands, significantly reducing the risk of insufficient delivery of nickel futures [3] Group 4 - Current spot prices for pure nickel have fallen below the cost line for external raw materials, including nickel sulfate and high-grade nickel [4] - The overall nickel price faces significant upward pressure due to the shift in Indonesian nickel ore supply and high global inventories, although there is some cost support at the lower end due to current pricing below production costs [4] - The main uncertainties lie in overseas nickel industry policy changes, particularly regarding the Philippines, which supplies over 90% of China's nickel ore imports, and Indonesia's high-grade nickel and intermediate products [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The short - term nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, is easily affected by macro - sentiment, with an unchanged supply surplus pattern, high inventory, and limited upside potential [3]. - The stainless - steel price shows signs of stopping decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive decline in inventory and rising material costs, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,500 yuan/ton and closed at 120,850 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.07% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 75,006 (- 25,275) lots, and the open interest was 81,612 (775) lots [1]. - The Shanghai nickel 2510 contract showed a narrow - range fluctuation pattern, with the closing price down 90 yuan from the previous trading day. The net short position of the main contract decreased, and the technical side presented a pattern of "20 - day moving average suppression but cost - line support". The trading volume shrank significantly, indicating strong market wait - and - see sentiment [1]. - The nickel ore market remained in a wait - and - see state, with rising freight rates and firm prices. Philippine mines had firm quotes, and shipments were slightly delayed due to rainfall. Domestic iron plants' profits remained in the red, and nickel ore procurement was cautious. In Indonesia, the supply was loose, and the September (Phase II) domestic trade benchmark price was expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2]. - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,700 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading was generally average, and the spot premiums of refined nickel brands remained stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 22,304 (- 295) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 221,094 (3,024) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel price will mainly fluctuate, and the trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless - steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 10, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 115,463 (+ 5,951) lots, and the open interest was 123,168 (- 4,171) lots [3]. - The stainless - steel main contract showed a weakly volatile pattern. Affected by the weakening of the black market, the price once fell below 12,900 yuan/ton at night. It strengthened during the day session and finally stabilized above 12,900 yuan/ton. The open interest increased slightly, and the long - short game intensified [3]. - The futures market was weakly volatile, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. The trading was consistently light, but the hot - rolled supply was tight, and the inquiry and trading were better than those of cold - rolled products. The stainless - steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets were both 13,200 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 290 - 590 yuan/ton [3]. - According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 952.5 yuan/nickel point the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - The trading strategy for stainless - steel is neutral for single - side trading. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory drops and rising material costs. The demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,490 yuan/ton, closed at 120,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,281 (+7,501) lots, and the open interest was 80,837 (3,364) lots [1]. - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract was affected by the decline in LME nickel prices at night and the lower - than - expected domestic August CPI data during the day. Although there were some bargain - hunting purchases in the afternoon, the rebound was limited due to high inventory and capacity release expectations [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes are firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. A major steel mill in South China has a new tender price of 955 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold). In Indonesia, the supply remains loose, and the September (first phase) premium is - 24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price is 123,200 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The spot trading is generally average, and the premiums of refined nickel brands are slightly adjusted [2]. - **Strategy** - For nickel, the short - term trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,930 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 109,512 (+16,944) lots, and the open interest was 123,179 (-4,171) lots [3]. - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract was weak at night and showed a volatile trend. During the day, it was driven by the strong trend of the black series and slightly rose to 12,980 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation until the close [3]. - In the spot market, affected by the futures market and rising raw material costs, the spot quotes increased. The supply of hot - rolled products is tight, and the inquiry and transaction situation has slightly improved. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,200 (+50) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium is 255 - 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron is 950.5 yuan/nickel point, a 5.00 - yuan/nickel point change from the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - For the nickel market, short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential. For the stainless - steel market, with eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding, and the demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the main nickel contract 2510 opened at 122,000 yuan/ton and closed at 121,790 yuan/ton, a - 1.10% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 125,550 (- 3,232) lots, and the open interest was 84,729 (- 6,033) lots. Affected by the stronger US dollar index and the fading impact of the Indonesia event, the night - session price dropped sharply and then oscillated at a low level, with a daily - session amplitude of only 0.87% [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The CIF price of 1.4% nickel ore was 50.5, showing a rising trend. The offer for 1.3% nickel ore from the Philippines to Indonesia was 43.44. The Philippine side had firm quotes and good shipping efficiency. The domestic ferronickel price was stable, but domestic iron plants were still in the red and purchased cautiously. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase I) domestic trade benchmark price dropped by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the premium remaining at +24 [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 123,300 yuan/ton, a 1,800 - yuan drop from the previous day. Refined nickel trading was okay, and the spot premiums of each brand were stable. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 21,860 (- 96) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 214,230 (+3,996) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - Short - term nickel prices are mainly volatile, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On September 3, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,915 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 87,549 (- 43,080) lots, and the open interest was 86,864 (- 4,171) lots. The night - session opened slightly lower, then rebounded and oscillated around 12,965 yuan/ton. The daily - session gave back the night - session gains, with a minimum drop to 12,885 yuan/ton. The daily amplitude was only 0.81%, and the trading volume decreased by 43,100 lots compared to the previous day [3]. - **Spot**: The weakening of futures prices led to stronger market wait - and - see sentiment. Traders' price - concession behavior did not support spot transactions. Downstream acceptance of high - priced goods was low, and market competition was fierce, resulting in poor transaction volume. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi and Foshan markets was 13,250 yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium was 355 - 655 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - inclusive average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 0.50 yuan/nickel point to 943.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - With eight consecutive weeks of inventory decline and rising material costs, stainless - steel prices show signs of stopping falling and rebounding. The strategy for single - side trading is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3][4].

Group 1: Report Overview - Industry: Nickel [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Nonferrous Metals Research Team [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Nickel prices are under pressure again, with the main contract closing down 1.1% to 121,790 yuan/ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron remained flat at 944 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate increased by 40 to 27,870 yuan/ton. The nickel ore price has limited downside and support is emerging due to events in Indonesia. NPI remains strong but the upside for stainless - steel terminals is limited. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are strong, but the demand for new - energy ternary batteries is mediocre. The primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation, with limited upside and downside for nickel prices. It is recommended to adopt a trading strategy, with the index mainly operating in the range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and it may be slightly stronger in September [8] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Nickel price performance: The main nickel contract closed down 1.1% to 121,790 yuan/ton. The average price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was flat at 944 yuan/nickel point, and the average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate rose 40 to 27,870 yuan/ton [8] - Market analysis: Nickel ore has limited downside and support due to Indonesian events. NPI is strong due to cost support and demand recovery expectations, but stainless - steel terminal improvement is limited. Sulfuric acid nickel prices are strong, but new - energy ternary battery demand is mediocre [8] - Operation suggestion: Adopt a trading strategy, with the index mainly operating in the range of 119,000 - 125,000 yuan, and it may be slightly stronger in September [8] Group 5: Industry News - Indonesia's Danantara is exploring investment opportunities in the nickel downstream industry and considering acquiring the GNI smelter. It plans to prepare an investment plan of over $20 billion and provide about $60 million in medium - term financing through a syndicated loan [9] - Bulgaria has officially launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh [10] - A Turkish research team has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which can significantly reduce production costs [10] - Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland, which will help the UK enhance power system resilience [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising material costs, and news - based stimulation. Future attention should be paid to the demand during the consumption peak season [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 123,210 yuan/ton and closed at 122,530 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 128,782 lots, and the open interest was 90,762 lots [1] - In the futures market, affected by the Indonesian event, the Shanghai nickel main contract continued to rise after the night - session opening, reaching a maximum of 123,810 yuan/ton, then fell back and fluctuated around 123,300 yuan/ton. Affected by the decline in LME nickel prices, it dropped rapidly after the day - session opening, rebounded later, and dived again at the end of the session [1] - The price of nickel ore remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was acceptable. The bullish sentiment of downstream ferronickel strengthened. In Indonesia, the supply was relatively loose, and the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in September (Phase I) decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 US dollars [1] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The spot trading of refined nickel was acceptable, and the premiums and discounts of each brand remained stable [2] - **Strategy** - For the short - term, nickel prices will mainly fluctuate, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 2, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2510 opened at 12,940 yuan/ton and closed at 12,960 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 130,629 lots, and the open interest was 91,035 lots [3] - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract continued to strengthen after the night - session opening and fluctuated slightly between 123,005 - 123,020 yuan/ton. After the day - session opening, affected by the decline in Shanghai nickel, the price slightly declined but still maintained a high - level fluctuating trend, with an amplitude of less than 100 yuan/ton throughout the day [3] - In the spot market, driven by the futures market, the list prices of large stainless steel manufacturers increased, and the market quotes followed suit. However, the downstream acceptance was low, and the actual trading was relatively sluggish. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,250 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market was also 13,250 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B were 305 to 605 yuan/ton [3] - **Strategy** - The stainless steel shows signs of stopping the decline and rebounding. The single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on September 2nd, the Shanghai nickel main - contract first rose then declined, with reduced trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak trading, and basis premium widened. The supply side saw stable nickel ore prices, decreased nickel ore arrivals last week, and increased port inventories. Ferronickel plant losses narrowed, with increased domestic and Indonesian production and decreased ferronickel inventory. In September, domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profitability shrank. The demand side had reduced ternary production, increased stainless - steel mill production, and stable alloy and electroplating demand. Considering inventory changes and external factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and Indonesian unrest, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on September 2nd, the stainless - steel main - contract fluctuated at a high level, with reduced trading volume and open interest. The spot market had better low - price trading, and basis premium decreased. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased last week. The supply side will see increased stainless - steel production in September. The demand side has weak terminal demand, while the cost side has rising high - grade ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices. Given the large impact of macro - sentiment, although the fundamentals are loose, cost provides support, so stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is also recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of nickel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) decreased compared to the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel decreased by 43,115 hands to 128,782 hands, and the open interest decreased by 1,201 hands to 90,762 hands. The LME 3 - month nickel price fell 1.29%. The price difference between near - month and far - month contracts and the basis between spot and futures changed [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various nickel products (nickel beans, electrolytic nickel, ferronickel, etc.) mostly decreased. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract decreased, while the premium of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) remained stable [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, the LME nickel inventory increased, the social inventory of pure nickel decreased by 1,402 tons, and the inventory in the Shanghai bonded area remained unchanged [2]. - **Industry News**: In August, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.3 million, a year - on - year increase of 24%. Greenmei stated that its nickel project in Indonesia was operating normally without being affected by local unrest. The Indonesian nickel ore association reported that the nickel price in this cycle decreased compared to the previous one, with the September 1st nickel ore reference price (HMA) set at $14,999.64 per kiloton, lower than the previous cycle. Some nickel products' prices showed different trends, with the MHP price rising significantly [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of stainless - steel futures contracts (near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, continuous - three) had different changes. The trading volume of the Shanghai stainless - steel main - contract decreased by 34,264 hands to 130,629 hands, and the open interest decreased by 9,528 hands to 91,035 hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The average prices of various stainless - steel products (304 series, 316 series, etc.) had different changes, with some prices rising and some remaining stable. The basis between the 304/2B coil (Wuxi) average price and the active contract decreased by 10 [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased, and the social inventory of stainless - steel decreased by 3,200 tons. Among them, the inventory of 200 - series stainless steel increased by 2,400 tons, the inventory of 300 - series decreased by 3,300 tons, and the inventory of 400 - series decreased by 2,300 tons [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: In September, stainless - steel production is expected to increase, but terminal demand is weak. The cost side has rising high - grade ferronickel and high - carbon ferrochrome prices [2].

Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding in the short term due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising raw material costs, and macro news. However, terminal demand has not recovered, production is still likely to increase, and prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 122,110 yuan/ton and closed at 123,450 yuan/ton, a 1.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 171,897 lots, and the open interest was 91,963 lots [1] - In the futures market, the main nickel contract showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation at night and closed slightly higher at the end. During the day session, it strengthened continuously due to the Jakarta strike in Indonesia and macro factors, reaching a maximum of 123,620 yuan/ton [2] - In the nickel ore market, it was mainly in a wait - and - see state during the day, and prices remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was okay. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 125,500 yuan/ton, a 2,100 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the sharp price increase, the spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the premium and discount remained stable [2] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly conduct range operations for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2509 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 164,893 lots, and the open interest was 100,563 lots [3] - In the futures market, the main stainless steel contract was weak at night, oscillating narrowly in the range of 12,770 - 12,860 yuan/ton. During the day session, it rose rapidly due to the news of unrest in Indonesia, reaching a maximum of 12,970 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, although there was news in the morning that a large steel mill restricted the sales of steel coils, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced goods was still limited. With the sharp rise in the futures market, the increase in spot quotes failed to keep up with the futures, but market inquiries and procurement activities improved, and the trading situation was relatively ideal [3] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]