Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides specific investment recommendations for different asset classes in January [9][12][69]. Report's Core View - After the Fed's rate cut in December, the market shifted its focus to re - pricing the subsequent policy path and liquidity. The domestic policy expectations in China are positive. In January, it is recommended to balance the allocation and seize structural opportunities. Long - term overweight is suggested for equities and non - ferrous metals, while precious metals should be treated with caution regarding volatility and can be re - weighted after volatility stabilizes [2][3][69]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. December Review of Major Assets - The macro theme of global major assets in December shifted from a single monetary policy expectation to structural pricing and capital transaction - driven scenarios under risk appetite recovery. Asset performance showed divergence [15]. - In the equity market, A - shares performed well, with small and medium - sized stocks and growth styles outperforming large - cap indices. Overseas, US equity indices were nearly flat [16]. - In the bond market, government bonds and US Treasuries performed weakly, with yields rising [17]. - In the foreign exchange market, the US dollar index weakened, the RMB was relatively strong, and the Japanese yen declined after the Bank of Japan's rate hike [18]. - In the commodity market, precious metals and new energy metals performed significantly better, base metals rose but with weaker gains, ferrous metals were generally weak, energy and chemicals were weak, and agricultural products had mixed performance [19]. 2. Macro Environment Outlook 2.1 Overseas Macro - The global PMI in November slightly declined to 50.5, but remained in the expansion range [23]. - US economic data from October - November showed weakening inflation, an increase in the unemployment rate, and stable consumption. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, with a dovish tone [24][28][29]. - Attention should be paid to the nomination of the new Fed chair. Different candidates have different policy stances, which may cause market fluctuations. The US bond market shows a "bear steepening" feature, and the US dollar is under pressure [30]. - The European Central Bank maintained the interest rate unchanged in December and raised GDP forecasts. Japan's rate hike was not radical, and short - term liquidity may tighten slightly, but the expectation of overseas easing in 2026 remains [33]. - Non - US developed markets are stable, and emerging markets had a generally positive economic sentiment in November [34][35]. 2.2 Chinese Domestic Macro - In December, domestic macro indicators were stable. Important meetings set tasks for the "15th Five - Year Plan", raising market expectations for additional policies in the first half of 2026 [36]. - The economic structure showed differentiation, with real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak, manufacturing PMI rising to the expansion zone, consumption being stable and slightly weak, and exports contributing significantly to the economy [37]. - Social financing slightly exceeded expectations, M1 data rebound did not change the trend of activating funds, PPI was on an upward trend, and core CPI unexpectedly recovered, indicating an improvement in inflation in 2026 [37][38]. 3. Outlook for Major Assets 3.1 Equity indices - In January, policy easing expectations are likely to be the main narrative in the equity market. Domestic equities may trade in a volatile but generally stronger trend. Fiscal policy may front - load in 2026, and monetary policy may ease marginally in the first half of the year, providing a window for increasing equity index allocation [41]. 3.2 Commodities - **Precious Metals**: In January, precious metals will enter a critical phase of speculation on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold and silver are likely to maintain a volatile upward trend under the dual fiscal and monetary easing macro - backdrop. Attention should be paid to the US fiscal deficit and the Fed's policy path changes [44]. - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: The macro environment is favorable, and upstream raw materials are tight, with supply disruption concerns. Although actual demand is weak, non - ferrous metals are expected to maintain a generally volatile but stronger trend, especially in the medium - to - long - term with supply remaining tight [49]. - **Ferrous Metals**: In January, ferrous metals are expected to trade in a range - bound manner. In the medium - to - long - term, "anti - involution" policies and export control measures may reshape the supply - demand balance and improve industry profits [54]. - **Energy & Chemicals**: In January, the crude oil sector will verify OPEC+ production cut compliance. Oil prices may oscillate in a low range. Geopolitics and supply - side factors will affect prices. In the medium - to - long - term, the global oversupply assumption remains, but prices below $60 may trigger support measures [57][59]. 3.3 Bonds - Treasury bond movements in January may continue to be range - bound, with short - end performance relatively better than long - end. In the long - term, bonds have limited upside potential as inflation expectations may put pressure on medium - and long - duration bond yields [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Based on the rising domestic policy expectations, it is recommended to over - allocate long positions in stock indices and non - ferrous metals (copper, aluminum, tin) under the "balanced allocation" strategy framework. Treat precious metals as a standard allocation in the short term and over - allocate them on dips after volatility stabilizes. For different asset classes, domestic equity markets are expected to strengthen driven by policy and fiscal front - loading expectations; treasury bonds can be observed for bull - steepening opportunities under easing expectations but with limited odds; non - ferrous metals perform relatively well under macro and industrial support; black commodities return to a weak and volatile state after the winter - storage driven rebound; crude oil is expected to be volatile and it is advisable to stay on the sidelines [5]. Summary by Directory Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: Double factors boost the market, but continuous upward movement requires waiting. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on the situation of incremental funds [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: Use option covered strategies to increase returns. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on option market liquidity [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Long - end sentiment remains weak. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the implementation of monetary policy [6]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver are expected to maintain an upward trend after a volatile adjustment. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and the development of geopolitical conflicts [6]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Near - term prices are supported by pre - Spring Festival shipments, and long - term prices are affected by the risk of resuming flights. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on shipping companies' 2026 resumption arrangements, year - end long - term contract signing prices, and the support of pre - Spring Festival shippers' shipments on freight rates [6]. - **Steel Products**: Cost performance is strong, and the futures price rebounds from a low level. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Market sentiment is strong, and both futures and spot prices rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics [6]. - **Coke**: There are limited fundamental changes, and the futures price shows a pattern of weak first and then strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [6]. Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Auction prices rise and fall, and most commodities rise at night. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [6]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The electricity cost in Shaanxi is increasing, and the market's bullish sentiment is rising. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on raw material costs and steel procurement [6]. - **Silicomanganese**: The upstream supply pressure remains high, and attention should be paid to the guidance of steel procurement prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on cost prices and overseas quotes [6]. - **Glass**: Commodity sentiment warms up, and the valuation premium recovers. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on spot sales [6]. - **Soda Ash**: There are limited fundamental changes, and sentiment drives the valuation to recover. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on soda ash inventory [6]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Inventory continues to accumulate, and copper prices fluctuate at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, less - than - expected domestic demand recovery, and economic recession [6]. - **Alumina**: The oversupply situation has not improved significantly, and alumina prices continue to be under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected delays in ore复产, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends [6]. - **Aluminum**: Mozal Aluminum Plant faces shutdown, and aluminum prices fluctuate at a high level. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [6]. - **Zinc**: LME zinc inventory continues to increase, and the rebound space of zinc prices is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply [6]. - **Lead**: The downstream's willingness to take delivery improves, and lead prices may stop falling and stabilize. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [6]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the RKAB of nickel mines, and nickel prices rebound. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The rebound of nickel prices drives the stainless - steel futures price to rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [6]. - **Tin**: Downstream rigid demand is resilient, and tin prices fluctuate strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on the expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment fluctuates, and silicon prices rise. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected over - recovery of supply and policy changes [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The expectation of state - reserve purchase is still fermenting, and polysilicon prices continue to be highly volatile. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on unexpected over - recovery of supply and domestic photovoltaic policy changes [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory depletion slows down, and lithium prices fluctuate under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [6]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical situations continue to disrupt, and oil prices continue to fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on OPEC+ production policies and geopolitical situations [8]. - **LPG**: The strong reality is facing challenges, and attention should be paid to the implementation of downstream production cuts. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the cost progress of crude oil and overseas propane [8]. - **Asphalt**: The US is dealing with Venezuelan - sanctioned crude oil, and asphalt futures prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is a decline, and the focus is on sanctions and supply disruptions [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The situation in Venezuela is under control, and fuel oil futures prices fall. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on geopolitics and crude oil prices [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices fluctuate and fall. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on crude oil prices [8]. - **Methanol**: The situation in the Middle East is turbulent, and methanol prices rise strongly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro - energy and actual overseas shutdown dynamics [8]. - **Urea**: New orders are actively traded, and the announcement of the Indian tender boosts sentiment. Urea prices are stable and slightly strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the coal market and the progress of commercial storage [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Geopolitical instability brings uncertainties to the supply side. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on coal and oil price fluctuations and port inventory rhythms [8]. - **PX**: Geopolitics boosts international oil prices, providing cost support. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and refining unit disruptions [8]. - **PTA**: Cost support combined with strong chemical sentiment strengthens the price support at the bottom. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations, macro changes, and insufficient downstream polyester load support [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Cost provides some support, but demand sustainability is insufficient, and profits are under pressure. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the demand change rhythm around the Spring Festival [8]. - **Bottle Chips**: More devices are under maintenance in January, and the basis is firm. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on the implementation of bottle - chip enterprise production - cut targets and shipping costs [8]. - **Propylene**: There is an expectation of reduced PDH operation, and prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic macro - situation [8]. - **PP**: Maintenance increases, and PP prices fluctuate. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [8]. - **Plastic**: The basis is weak, and the upward space of plastic prices is limited. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situation [8]. - **Styrene**: Exports and commodity sentiment are warm, driving styrene to fluctuate strongly recently. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics [8]. - **PVC**: Supply disruptions occur frequently, and PVC prices rebound strongly. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on expectations, costs, and supply [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: Market sentiment is positive, driving caustic soda prices. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on market sentiment, operation, and demand [8]. - **Oils and Fats**: Oils and fats fluctuate, with soybean oil being relatively strong. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The market trading is active, and double - meal prices continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on customs policies, South American weather, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The rotation purchase restarts, and prices fluctuate within a range. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on demand, macro - situation, and weather [8]. - **Pigs**: The slaughter rhythm slows down at the beginning of the month, and spot prices rebound slightly. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Capital sentiment remains positive, and rubber prices continue to rise. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on production area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The futures price follows the rise of natural rubber. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on significant crude oil fluctuations [8]. - **Cotton**: The upward trend continues. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on production and demand [8]. - **Sugar**: Sugar prices fluctuate and face pressure later. The short - term judgment is a volatile decline, and the focus is on imports and Northern Hemisphere production [8]. - **Pulp**: Capital and macro - factors dominate the market, and pulp futures prices fluctuate repeatedly. The short - term judgment is a volatile rise, and the focus is on macro - economic changes and US dollar - denominated price fluctuations [8]. - **Offset Paper**: There are few fundamental changes, and the offset paper futures price fluctuates at a high level. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on production and sales, education policies, and paper mill operation dynamics [8]. - **Logs**: The market warms up, and logs follow the strength of the black sector. The short - term judgment is volatile, and the focus is on shipment volume and dispatch volume [8]. Overseas and Domestic Macroeconomics - **Overseas**: Trump may announce the nomination of the new Fed Chairman in January. Hassett is still the most popular candidate in the market's expectation, and the interest - rate cut path may be faster in the next one to two years. The short - term positive effect of the geopolitical event in Venezuela on crude oil and precious metals is expected to be limited [5]. - **Domestic**: Policy expectations are rising in the first quarter. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in December, with both supply and demand improving marginally. The 2026 national subsidy policy has been released and optimized compared with 2025. The National Development and Reform Commission has organized and issued the list of "two - major" construction projects and the central budget - internal investment plan for 2026, with a total of about 295 billion yuan, and accelerated the allocation and use of various funds. It has also approved or approved multiple major infrastructure projects with a total investment of over 400 billion yuan. Coupled with the 500 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instrument funds issued at the end of October, the investment side is expected to gradually stabilize in the first quarter [5].

行业 贵金属日评 日期 2026 年 01 月 08 日 宏观金融团队 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 021-60635739 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、贵金属行情及展望 日内行情： 外媒报道称美国政府正在积极讨论获取格陵兰岛，而美联储理事米兰声称 2026 年美联储可大幅度降息，流动性溢价与地缘政治风险推动贵金属板块继续偏 强运行，隔夜伦敦白银收盘价再创新高，但伦敦黄金在 4500 美元/盎司附近持续 遭遇抛压，市场在 12 月非农就业数据公布前较为谨慎。我们认为 2025 年 12 月底 的回调已经充分释放贵金属内部积累的调整风险，总体看在国际政经格局重组、 美联储宽松货币政策、全球经济增长前景改善以及银铂对金饰替代需 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 股指： （王东灜，从业资格号：F03087149；交易咨询资格号：Z0019537） 昨日，A股市场冲高回落后进入震荡，Wind全A上涨0.19%，成交额2.88万亿元，中证1000指数上涨 0.53%，中证500指数上涨0.78%，沪深300指数下跌0.29%，上证50指数下跌0.43%。电子、电力设备等 板块继续走高，石油石化、非银金融等板块回调，风格出现分化。资金情绪继续高涨，据统计，宽基型 ETF12月净申购1100亿元，其中近1020亿元为A500ETF。A500指数长期与沪深300走势高度相关，相关 系数超过0.98，细微差别在于A500指数成长标的稍多，例如电力设备、电子等板块。在A500ETF获得大 幅申购的同时，我们关注到Top5会员单位IF净空头近期显著上涨，二者可能存在对冲关联。因此，相关 资金可能并不会因为跨年的结束而大幅净流出。短期来看，预计股指短期仍在10月以来构建的震荡中枢 内震荡。以中证1000为例，其三季度营业收入累计同比增速2.6%左右，对其当前估值构成明显支撑， 不易发生流动性风险。另一方面，春季躁动行情需 ...

Core Viewpoint - China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, with a total of 74.15 million ounces as of December 2025, reflecting a rise of 30,000 ounces from the previous month, while foreign exchange reserves reached a new high of $335.79 billion, up by $11.5 billion [1][9]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing PMI for December 2025 was reported at 49.5%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, remaining within the 49%-50% range for 10 consecutive months [1]. - The ISM services PMI in the U.S. rose by 1.8 points to 54.4, marking the highest level since October 2024 [1]. - The ADP reported an increase of 41,000 in private sector employment in December, reversing the previous month's decline but falling short of market expectations [1]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Precious metals are experiencing a period of consolidation, supported by a macroeconomic environment characterized by easing inflation pressures in the U.S. and a weak job market, which strengthens expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2]. - The long-term upward trend for gold is expected to continue, bolstered by factors such as weakened dollar credibility and central bank purchases [2]. - Silver and platinum are also expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and steady industrial demand, particularly in solar energy applications for silver and catalytic converters for platinum [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices showed mixed performance, with the comprehensive sector leading gains while the oil and petrochemical sector lagged [3]. - The financing balance increased by 18.887 billion yuan to 25,623.09 billion yuan as of January 6 [3]. - The appreciation of the RMB against the USD is expected to attract overseas capital back to China, supporting asset revaluation and reinforcing a long-term bullish trend in the A-share market [3][11]. Group 4: Government Actions - The People's Bank of China announced a 1.1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, continuing a trend of monetary easing [8]. - The central bank's focus for 2026 includes enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, indicating a strong expectation for easing policies at the beginning of the year [12].

贵金属市场遭遇黑色星期三，国际金价在触及4500美元关口后遭遇抛售压力，促使投资者在高位进行获 利了结。与此同时，周四（8日）起，彭博大宗商品指数的年度权重调整将正式启动，预计将引发超过 100亿美元黄金和白银期货的多头平仓。受此影响，国际金价日内一度下探近70美元，白银、铂金和钯 金尾盘跌幅均超过4%。不过，受地缘政治、美联储降息等因素提振，机构依然看好今年的贵金属行 情。 【百亿美元抛压将至！#贵金属上演跳水# ，黄金"里程悲"银铂钯重挫】#国际金价日内一度下探近70美 元# ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant sell-off in the precious metals market, particularly gold, following a peak at $4500, driven by profit-taking and an upcoming rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index, which is expected to trigger over $10 billion in long liquidation in gold and silver futures [2][3]. - The Bloomberg Commodity Index, a widely used benchmark in the commodity investment field, is undergoing an annual weight adjustment from January 8 to 14, with substantial funds involved. The weight of silver futures in the index is being reduced from 9% to just below 4% by 2026, while gold's weight is also significantly decreased [3]. - Citigroup estimates that the sell-off in gold and silver will amount to around $7 billion each, with gold's assets under management (AUM) at $33.8 billion and a target of $27 billion, while silver's AUM is $12.9 billion with a target of $6 billion [3]. Group 2 - Morgan Stanley notes that January is a month of intense competition between bullish and bearish factors for gold investors, as historical data shows an 80% probability of price increases during the last ten trading days of the previous year and the first twenty trading days of the new year [4]. - Despite the traditional seasonal strength of gold, the large-scale technical sell-off due to index weight adjustments may counteract this upward momentum, with Morgan Stanley warning that the sell-off pressure this year is more significant than last year [4]. - Following a record annual increase in gold and silver prices, investors are taking profit, as evidenced by the reduction in net long positions in COMEX gold and silver futures [5]. Group 3 - The outlook for gold remains positive, as it has surpassed U.S. Treasury bonds to become the largest reserve asset globally, with central bank gold holdings nearing $4 trillion, exceeding the $3.9 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds [6]. - The increase in gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset is driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over fiscal sustainability, with a cumulative price increase of nearly 70% expected for the year [6]. - Market expectations for further easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve provide additional support for gold prices, as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold and silver [6]. Group 4 - Recent geopolitical developments, including U.S. military actions in Venezuela and renewed interest in Greenland, have heightened geopolitical tensions, which are likely to influence market sentiment and gold demand [7]. - Economic indicators show a slowdown in U.S. economic momentum, with expectations of approximately two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, further supporting the case for rising gold prices [7]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could reach $5000 per ounce by the end of the first quarter, driven by central bank gold purchases, expanding fiscal deficits, declining U.S. interest rates, and ongoing geopolitical risks [7].

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones down 0.94%, the S&P 500 down 0.34%, and the Nasdaq up 0.16% [1] - Major tech stocks showed mixed results, with Google up over 2%, Microsoft up over 1%, and Nvidia up over 1%, while Facebook fell nearly 2% and Apple down 0.77% [1] - Most Chinese concept stocks declined, with New World Development down over 7%, Full Truck Alliance down over 7%, and Tencent Music down over 5% [1] European Market - European stock indices closed mixed, with Germany's DAX index up 0.92% at 25122.26 points, while France's CAC40 index fell 0.04% to 8233.92 points, and the UK's FTSE 100 index down 0.74% to 10048.21 points [1] Commodity Markets - International precious metal futures generally fell, with COMEX gold futures down 0.65% at $4467.1 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 3.77% at $77.98 per ounce [1] - U.S. oil main contract fell 1.28% to $56.4 per barrel, while Brent crude oil main contract decreased by 0.51% to $60.39 per barrel [1] Currency and Debt Markets - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.15% to 98.74, while the offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar fell by 127 basis points to 6.9935 [1] - U.S. Treasury yields were mixed, with the 2-year yield up 1.45 basis points at 3.470% and the 10-year yield down 2.16 basis points at 4.147% [1] - European bond yields collectively fell, with the UK 10-year yield down 6.5 basis points at 4.415% and the German 10-year yield down 3 basis points at 2.811% [1]

Oil Market - Oil prices are declining due to the U.S. seizing two sanctioned oil tankers and indicating the sale of Venezuelan oil, leading to expectations of increased Venezuelan crude sales [2][10] - WTI crude oil fell by 2%, settling at just below $56 per barrel, with market expectations that increased Venezuelan oil sales will exert downward pressure on an already oversupplied market [2][10] - President Trump announced that Venezuela will transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., with the proceeds benefiting both countries [2][10] - The U.S. Department of Energy is selectively easing sanctions on Venezuela, although specific details were not provided [2][10] - Analysts suggest that if prices continue to fall and breach the critical $55 psychological level, futures could accelerate down to $50 [11] Base Metals - Copper prices have retreated from record highs, along with other industrial metals, as traders took profits after rapid price increases [4][14] - At the London Metal Exchange, copper, nickel, and zinc futures all fell over 2%, reducing the sharp gains seen in recent weeks [5][15] - Despite a generally bullish long-term outlook for copper and other metals, the rapid price increase has raised concerns about a potential sharp market decline as traders lock in profits [5][15] - LME copper closed down 2.56% at $12,899.5 per ton, LME aluminum down 1.29% at $3,088.5 per ton, LME nickel down 3.4% at $17,895.0 per ton, and LME zinc down 2.57% at $3,167.5 per ton [16] Precious Metals - Silver and platinum have seen significant declines, continuing a trend of extreme volatility, as traders weigh the impacts of index rebalancing, supply constraints, and potential U.S. tariffs [6][14] - Platinum prices dropped as much as 7.7%, while silver fell by up to 6%, although both metals have recorded gains for the month so far [6][14] - The annual commodity index rebalancing is pressuring prices as passive tracking funds need to sell previously high-performing metals to match new weights [6][14] - Gold and palladium also fell alongside other precious metals, with analysts predicting large-scale sell-offs due to significant rebalancing fund flows [6][14] - As of the latest data, silver was down 3.78% at $78.202 per ounce, and gold was down 0.92% at $4,453.31 per ounce [17][18]

Core Insights - The global commodity market is experiencing a significant surge in demand for a specific metal, primarily driven by China, with countries rushing to secure supplies ahead of expectations [2][4][6]. Global Demand Surge - Countries including the US, India, UAE, and others are actively participating in the rush for this metal, which has become a highly sought-after commodity [4]. - In Shenzhen's precious metal wholesale market, there has been a noticeable increase in demand for silver ingots, particularly those without processing fees, leading to inventory shortages [4][6]. Central Bank Activities - Central banks, including Russia's, have incorporated this metal into their foreign exchange reserves, with Russia holding 92,000 tons as of 2025, representing 14.67% of global reserves [6]. - The US has classified this metal as a critical mineral, prompting other nations to follow suit and designate it as a strategic asset while limiting domestic outflows [6][8]. Price Escalation - The price of silver has surged, with London spot silver prices exceeding $59.33 per ounce, marking a historical high, while futures contracts approached $60 per ounce [8]. - In the domestic market, silver jewelry prices have risen to 16.52 yuan per gram, and wholesale prices for silver ingots reached a record high of 13.378 yuan per gram, reflecting a price increase of over 140% in one year [9]. Industrial Significance - The metal's value has shifted from jewelry to industrial applications, becoming essential for high-tech industries, particularly in the context of global energy transitions [11][20]. - In the photovoltaic industry, a 100 MW solar project requires 2.5 to 3 tons of this metal, while larger projects can demand over 20,000 tons [12]. - The rise of the electric vehicle industry further amplifies demand, with China's production of over 30 million electric vehicles in 2025 alone requiring 1,500 to 3,000 tons of this metal annually [16]. Supply Chain Dynamics - China plays a crucial role in the global supply chain for this metal, handling 60% to 70% of its refining, despite holding only 11% of global reserves [23][24]. - In 2025, China's export volume reached 9,126 tons, accounting for 23.4% of global trade, indicating its dominance in the market [24][25]. Export Control Policies - China has implemented new export control measures, elevating this metal to a strategic material status, requiring strict approval for exports [26][28]. - These policies aim to prioritize domestic supply while managing global market stability amid increasing international demand [30][32]. Conclusion - The ongoing rush for this metal reflects a broader competition for dominance in high-tech industries and resource strategy on a global scale [34][36]. - China's strategic export controls position it favorably in the global market, ensuring resource security for its own industrial upgrades while navigating international competition [38].