Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical risks and API inventory decline drive up oil prices, while multiple PX device restarts increase supply, reducing PX de - stocking volume. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, short - term PX price and PXN bottom have support, and PX will continue to de - stock in the next few months [2] - PTA de - stocking slows, downstream resists high basis, and PTA spot basis weakens. In the short - term, PTA price follows the cost side. Polyester new capacity runs stably with high start - up, but polyester production cut is being executed, and PTA price will run in a range [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declines, market supply increases slightly, and foreign trade has more quotes and samples. PTA device maintenance is still high, and polyester starts production cut [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market is weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention. Bottle - chip start - up declines slightly, and downstream digests inventory [2] - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On June 4, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.85/barrel (- 0.88%), Brent crude oil was $64.86/barrel (- 1.17%), naphtha in CFR Japan was $562.63/ton (+ 0.18%), and isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $699/ton (- 0.07%) [1] - **PX**: PX CFR China main port was $825/ton (+ 0.26%), CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6,578 yuan/ton (+ 0.83%), and settlement price was 6,568 yuan/ton (- 1.02%) [1] - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4,670 yuan/ton (+ 0.91%), settlement price was 4,670 yuan/ton (- 0.81%), domestic PTA spot price was 4,863 yuan/ton (- 1.06%) [1] - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5,926 yuan/ton (+ 0.24%), settlement price was 5,924 yuan/ton (- 1.00%), polyester bottle - chip in the East China market was 5,920 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [1] - **Downstream**: CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,515 yuan/ton (+ 0.15%), and polyester chip was 5,890 yuan/ton (- 0.51%) [2] Spread Information - On June 4, 2025, PTA near - far month spread was 212 yuan/ton (increased by 32 yuan/ton), PTA basis was 200 yuan/ton (decreased by 77 yuan/ton), PX basis was 198 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), PR basis in East China was - 6 yuan/ton (decreased by 54 yuan/ton), and in South China was 94 yuan/ton (decreased by 24 yuan/ton) [1] Production and Sales and Start - up Rate - **Start - up Rate**: On June 4, 2025, PX start - up rate was 81.45% (unchanged), PTA factory load rate was 80.84% (unchanged), polyester factory was 89.63% (- 0.08%), bottle - chip factory was 83.82% (unchanged), and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms were 69.80% (unchanged) [1] - **Production and Sales Rate**: On June 4, 2025, polyester filament production and sales rate was 36% (- 3%), polyester staple fiber was 60% (- 12%), and polyester chip was 49% (- 52%) [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in the northwest plans to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Important News - On June 4, geopolitical risks drove up oil prices, and API inventory decline was favorable to oil prices. Multiple PX device restarts increased supply, and polyester production cut sentiment was strong [2] - PTA de - stocking slowed, downstream resisted high basis, and polyester new capacity ran stably with high start - up [2] - Polyester filament start - up load declined, foreign trade had more quotes and samples, and PTA device maintenance was still high [2] - Polyester bottle - chip market was weak, with supply quotes down and low downstream procurement intention [2] Trading Strategy - PTA, PX, and PR contracts closed lower on June 4. Due to geopolitical and economic concerns, international oil prices fell. It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run weakly (PX view score: - 1, PTA view score: - 1, PR view score: - 1) [2]

2025年3月石脑油产量分析： 摘要：【图】2025年1-3月广东省石脑油产量统计分析 2025年1-3月石脑油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前3个月，广东省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量累计达到了315.8万吨， 与2024年同期的数据相比，增长了10.9%，增速较2024年同期低19.1个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期 全国高11.6个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量1988.5万吨的比重为15.9%。 图表：广东省石脑油产量分月（累计值）统计 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业监测及发展趋势 化工未来发展趋势预测 日化现状及发展前景 润滑油发展前景趋势分析 汽油的现状和发展趋势 柴油行业现状与发展趋势 橡胶市场现状及前景分析 塑料市场调研与发展前景 化妆品发展现状及前景预测清洁护肤市场调研及发展趋势 单独看2025年3月份，广东省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量达到了110.1万吨，与2024年同期的数据相 比，3月份的产量增长了15.1%，增速较2024年同期高20.0个百分点，增速较同期全国高15.7个百分点， 约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量674.4万吨的比重为 ...

摘要：【图】2025年3月上海市原油加工量数据分析 2025年3月原油加工量统计： 原油加工量：165.1 万吨 同比增长：-22.4% 2025年1-3月原油加工量统计： 原油加工量：544.6 万吨 同比增长：-9.1% 增速较上一年同期变化：低11.2个百分点 增速较上一年同期变化：低26.3个百分点 据统计，2025年3月上海市规模以上工业企业原油加工量与上年同期相比下降了22.4%，达165.1万吨， 增速较上一年同期低26.3个百分点，增速较同期全国低22.8个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业原油 加工量6305.8万吨的比重为2.6%。 详见下图： 图1：上海市原油加工量分月（当月值）统计图 据统计，2025年1－3月，上海市规模以上工业企业原油加工量与上年同期相比下降了9.1%，达544.6万 吨，增速较上一年同期低11.2个百分点，增速较同期全国低10.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 原油加工量18224.8万吨的比重为3.0%。详见下图： 图2：上海市原油加工量分月（累计值）统计图 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业 ...

Group 1 - In the first three months of 2025, the crude oil processing volume of large-scale industrial enterprises in Zhejiang Province reached 2,007.9 thousand tons, representing a 6.0% increase compared to the same period in 2024, although the growth rate slowed down by 4.4 percentage points compared to 2024 [1] - The crude oil processing volume in March 2025 alone was 693.8 thousand tons, showing a 5.4% increase year-on-year, with a slowdown of 3.2 percentage points compared to March 2024 [2] - The crude oil processing volume in Zhejiang accounted for 11.0% of the national total processing volume of 18,224.8 thousand tons during the same period [1][2] Group 2 - The growth rate of crude oil processing in Zhejiang Province was 4.4 percentage points higher than the national average during the first three months of 2025 [1] - In March 2025, the growth rate of crude oil processing in Zhejiang was 5.0 percentage points higher than the national average of 6,305.8 thousand tons [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - On June 3, geopolitical risks in the international crude oil market increased, and the wildfires in Canada provided some support for oil prices, but the OPEC+ production increase plan suppressed oil prices. Multiple PX units restarted or increased their loads recently, increasing supply and reducing the overall destocking volume of PX. With strong polyester production cut sentiment, the market sentiment was affected. However, the spot market remained short of goods, so in the short term, the bottom of PX prices and PXN would still be supported. In the medium - term, PX would continue to destock in the next few months [2]. - PTA prices declined. Although geopolitical issues pushed up crude oil prices, the atmosphere of domestic bulk chemicals was weak. The destocking speed of PTA slowed down, and the spot basis weakened. Polyester new capacity ran smoothly with high operating rates, having a good rigid demand for PTA. In the short term, PTA spot prices would mainly follow the cost side. The operating load of polyester filament further declined, and the overall market sales were average, with most factories still having inventory pressure. During the tariff suspension period, the foreign trade market showed more quotations and samples, and some traders said there were large potential orders [2]. - The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets declined. Polyester raw materials and bottle - chip futures weakened. The supply side of bottle - chips mostly kept their quotes stable, and the downstream terminal buying enthusiasm was low, resulting in a stalemate in market transactions. Recently, some units in East China were under maintenance, the operating rate of bottle - chips decreased, but the overall market supply was still abundant [2]. - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate. (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream Products**: On June 3, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $63.41 per barrel, up 4.31% from the previous value; the futures settlement price of Brent crude oil was $65.63 per barrel, up 2.71%. The spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $561.63 per ton, up 0.56%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade, FOB South Korea) was $699.00 per ton, down 1.34%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX, CFR China Main Port) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.06% [1]. - **PTA Products**: The closing price of the CZCE TA main contract was 4,628 yuan per ton, down 1.53%; the settlement price was 4,708 yuan per ton, down 0.34%. The closing price of the CZCE TA near - month contract was 4,840 yuan per ton, down 2.02%; the settlement price was 4,888 yuan per ton, down 1.05%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,915 yuan per ton, down 0.55%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4,905 yuan per ton, down 0.71%, and the CCFEI price index of external PTA was $634.00 per ton on June 2, up 0.32%. The near - far month spread was 180 yuan per ton, a decrease of 36 yuan, and the basis was 277 yuan per ton, an increase of 37 yuan [1]. - **PX Products**: The closing price of the CZCE PX main contract was 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.42%; the settlement price was 6,636 yuan per ton, down 0.18%. The closing price of the CZCE PX near - month contract was 7,000 yuan per ton, up 6.74%; the settlement price was 6,822 yuan per ton, up 0.56%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,857 yuan per ton, unchanged. The spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (CFR Taiwan, China) was $824.00 per ton, down 2.25%, and the spot price (mid - price) of p - xylene (FOB South Korea) was $799.00 per ton, down 2.32%. The PXN spread was $262.38 per ton, down 7.23%, the PX - MX spread was $125.00 per ton, down 5.89%, and the basis was 333 yuan per ton, an increase of 94 yuan [1]. - **PR Products**: The closing price of the CZCE PR main contract was 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.17%; the settlement price was 5,984 yuan per ton, down 0.30%. The closing price of the CZCE PR near - month contract was 5,950 yuan per ton, down 0.90%; the settlement price was 5,974 yuan per ton, down 0.50%. The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42%, and in the South China market was 6,030 yuan per ton, down 0.33%. The basis in the East China market was 48 yuan per ton, an increase of 45 yuan, and in the South China market was 118 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan [1]. - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY was 8,925 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester POY was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY68D was 7,250 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester FDY150D was 7,200 yuan per ton, unchanged; the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,505 yuan per ton, up 0.08%; the CCFEI price index of polyester chips was 5,920 yuan per ton, up 0.25%; the CCFEI price index of bottle - grade chips was 5,960 yuan per ton, down 0.42% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 81.45% on June 3, up 2.27 percentage points from the previous value. The PTA industry chain load rate of PTA factories was 80.84%, up 3.01 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of polyester factories was 89.71%, down 0.23 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of bottle - chip factories was 83.82%, down 0.37 percentage points; the PTA industry chain load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.80%, unchanged [1]. - The sales rate of polyester filament was 39.00% on June 3, up 5 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 72.00%, up 13 percentage points; the sales rate of polyester chips was 101.00%, up 53 percentage points [1] Device Information - A 1.2 - million - ton PTA unit in the northwest planned to restart between May 15 and 20 [2] Trading Strategies - PTA opened high and closed low. The TA2509 contract closed at 4,623 yuan per ton, down 2.03%, with an intraday trading volume of 1.33 million lots. PX was weakly affected by costs. The PX2509 contract closed at 6,524 yuan per ton, down 1.87%, with an intraday trading volume of 25,040 lots. PR followed the cost trend. The 2507 contract closed at 5,912 yuan per ton, down 1.50%, with an intraday trading volume of 32,800 lots. It was expected that PX, PTA, and PR would fluctuate (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

据悉，自2023年，全国"安全生产月"活动以"人人讲安全 个个会应急"为主题，每年聚焦解决一个人民 群众最关心、应急管理领域最突出的实际问题，取得了良好的活动成效和社会反响。今年活动聚焦"查 找身边安全隐患"，对于全面排查整治事故隐患，防范化解重大安全风险，提高企业安全管理水平和基 层应急管理能力具有很强的现实意义。 中国海油发布《中国海油2025年"安全生产月"暨"生态环境保护宣传周"活动方案》，并提出将围绕"一 件事"全链条安全整治，扎实推进中国海油安全生产治本攻坚三年行动，落实"安全风险管理季"管理提 升活动，重点开展六方面工作。一是深入学习贯彻习近平生态文明思想和习近平总书记关于安全生产重 要论述和重要指示批示精神。二是开展"查找身边安全隐患"系列行动，进一步提升全员风险防范意识。 三是开展"安全宣传咨询日"和安全宣传"五进"活动。四是开展"生态环保宣传周"活动。五是开展 QHSE(质量健康安全环保)管理体系学习。六是开展多样化主题活动。 5月30日，中国化学在中煤榆林煤炭深加工基地项目启动2025年"安全生产月"主题活动暨中煤榆林煤炭 深加工基地项目"安全生产月"活动。中国化学党委常委、副总经理胡富 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Yunnan Petrochemical has successfully implemented the Robust-IPC full-process intelligent control technology, enhancing operational efficiency and control capabilities [1] - Prior to the IPC project, Yunnan Petrochemical faced challenges with PID and APC systems, which limited automation and response to operational fluctuations [1] - The IPC project integrates over 10 advanced intelligent control technologies, significantly improving anti-interference capabilities and reducing fluctuations in key parameters [1] Group 2 - Since the end of last year, Yunnan Petrochemical has initiated optimization installation work for 20 units, including catalytic cracking and hydrocracking [2] - The technical team has customized optimization plans for each unit based on data analysis of operational characteristics, achieving a transition from single-variable to multi-variable control [2] - To date, the project team has optimized 1,913 basic control loops and developed 139 optimization control plans, along with several intelligent control modules [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful expansion and modernization of the Caspian Asphalt Plant in Kazakhstan, a joint venture between CITIC Group and the Kazakh National Oil and Gas Company, which plays a crucial role in meeting the asphalt demand for infrastructure development in Kazakhstan and exemplifies the practical cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The Caspian Asphalt Plant is the only facility in Central Asia dedicated to producing high-standard road asphalt and is the first large-scale petrochemical project established in Kazakhstan post-independence [1] - The plant's annual crude oil processing capacity has been increased from 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons, and the annual asphalt output has risen from 500,000 tons to 750,000 tons following the recent upgrade [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The modernization project was undertaken by CITIC Construction Co., Ltd., utilizing entirely Chinese technology and equipment, and was completed ahead of schedule, receiving high praise from Kazakhstan's President Tokayev and the Ministry of Energy [1] - Advanced technologies such as low-nitrogen burners and waste heat recovery systems have been implemented to reduce pollutant emissions and enhance energy recycling [1] Group 3: Strategic Importance - The plant is viewed as a strategic project that will enhance Kazakhstan's industrial capacity and facilitate economic transformation, with expectations for more modern projects in collaboration with China [1] - The facility's advanced production technology and automation are seen as a reflection of the capacity cooperation between China and Central Asian countries, with potential for similar projects in Tajikistan [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies including Xinyangfeng, Senqilin, Ruifeng New Materials, Sinopec, and others [10]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights significant price increases in phosphate rock (10.00%) and glyphosate (6.79%), while products like butadiene and aniline saw substantial declines [3][4]. - It suggests focusing on import substitution, domestic demand, and high dividend opportunities in the current market environment [5][21]. - The international oil prices are stabilizing, with WTI at $60.79 per barrel and Brent at $63.90 per barrel, indicating a projected average of $70 for 2025 [5][20]. Summary by Sections Industry Tracking - International oil prices are fluctuating within a narrow range, with market assessments indicating a stable supply outlook [22]. - The domestic propane market experienced a decline after an initial stabilization, with average prices at 4988 CNY/ton [25]. - The domestic coal market showed mixed price movements, averaging 532 CNY/ton, with expectations of increased demand as summer approaches [26]. Price Movements - Significant price increases were noted in phosphate rock and glyphosate, while butadiene and aniline experienced notable declines [19]. - The report indicates a weak overall performance in the chemical industry, with mixed results across sub-sectors due to past capacity expansions and weak demand [21]. Investment Opportunities - The report emphasizes the potential for investment in sectors benefiting from import substitution, such as lubricating oil additives and special coatings [21]. - It also highlights the resilience of the tire industry, suggesting companies like Senqilin and Sailun Tire as potential investment targets [21]. - The report recommends focusing on high-quality assets with strong dividend yields, particularly in the oil sector, including Sinopec and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [21].

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-06-03 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《2.2%以上，城投开抢？——信用周 报 20240526》 - 2025.05.26 固收周报 物价持续走低，航运指数大涨 ——高频数据跟踪 20250601 核心观点 高频经济数据关注点：第一，生产热度整体有所改善，高炉、半 钢胎、PX 开工率回升，焦炉、沥青、PTA、全钢胎开工率下降。第二， 房地产边际改善，30 城商品房成交面积超去年同期，100 城土地供应 面积回升。第三，物价整体继续下行，原油、焦煤、铜、铝、锌、螺 纹钢价格均下降，其中焦煤大跌 9.07%跌破 700 元/吨，螺纹钢下跌 3.01%跌破 3000 元/吨。第四，航运指数大幅上涨，国内 SCFI 周大涨 30.68%，升破 2000 点；BDI 大幅上涨 5.82%。短期重点关注新一轮稳 增长刺激政策落地、房地产市场恢复 ...