宏观日报 | 2026-02-27 节后中游持续回暖 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）津巴布韦矿业部日前宣布暂停所有原矿及锂精矿出口（含在途货物）。媒体记者从中矿资源与雅化 集团获悉，津巴布韦锂矿出口禁令系阶段性措施，预计最快1至4周内有望恢复，目前公司原料库存充足，对生产 经营影响有限。雅化集团证券部人士表示，有采矿权和选矿厂的企业可以在提交补充材料后再申请出口，目前公 司已经准备提交材料；中矿资源表示，后续会有新的审批流程出台，预估这个禁令可能在一个月以内，不会持续 很久，具体取决于审批落地情况。 服务行业：1）中国人民银行发布关于银行业金融机构人民币跨境同业融资业务有关事宜的通知。通知提出，支持 境内银行顺应市场需求，按照依法合规、风险可控的原则开展人民币跨境同业融资业务。境内中资银行、外商独 资银行、中外合资银行开展相关业务应由银行总行统一管理，并按照实质重于形式的原则，将全部人民币跨境同 业融资业务纳入管理范围，建立健全风险管理和内部控制机制。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 上游：1）能源：液化天然气价格回落，国际原油价格回升。2）农业：鸡蛋价格 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The prices of the upstream sectors in the chemical and agricultural industries are continuously rising, while the mid - stream and downstream sectors show different trends. There are also important policy releases and event warnings in the production and service industries [1][2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Mid - level Event Overview - **Production Industry**: Eight departments jointly issued the "Special Action Implementation Plan for 'Artificial Intelligence + Manufacturing'" to promote AI in the manufacturing process. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs and the China Meteorological Administration issued a snow disaster warning for facilities agriculture and animal husbandry in some regions from January 29 - 31 [1]. - **Service Industry**: Five departments in Shenzhen issued a three - year plan (2026 - 2028) to optimize the consumption environment, aiming to promote home consumption, improve the smart home industry ecosystem, and encourage the integration of home products with AI [1]. 3.2. Industry Overview 3.2.1. Upstream - **Chemical**: The prices of PTA and polyethylene are continuously rising [2]. - **Agriculture**: The prices of eggs and palm oil are rising [2]. - **Energy**: The international crude oil price has been increased [2]. 3.2.2. Mid - stream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [3]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants has decreased [3]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt has declined [3]. 3.2.3. Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [4]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [4]. 3.3. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - **Agriculture**: On January 28, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and the average wholesale price of pork showed year - on - year increases of 0.32%, 4.28%, 4.26%, 0.35%, and 0.75% respectively [40]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel had year - on - year increases of 1.40%, 4.33%, 2.29%, and 0.31% respectively, while one of the aluminum spot prices decreased by 0.66% [40]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of rebar, iron ore, and wire rod had year - on - year changes of - 0.49%, 0.41%, and - 0.87% respectively [40]. - **Non - metals**: On January 28, the spot prices of glass, natural rubber, and the China Plastic City price index had year - on - year increases of 1.56%, 3.42%, and 0.83% respectively [40]. - **Energy**: On January 28, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal had year - on - year changes of 3.36%, 2.57%, 2.16%, and - 0.25% respectively [40]. - **Chemical**: On January 28, the spot prices of PTA, polyethylene, urea, and soda ash had year - on - year changes of 4.10%, 3.70%, - 0.14%, and 0.00% respectively [40]. - **Real Estate**: On January 28, the cement price index, building materials composite index, and concrete price index had year - on - year changes of - 0.49%, - 0.32%, and 0.00% respectively [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since December 2025, the prices of Chinese chemical products have bottomed out and rebounded, with a trend reversal. As of January 26, 2026, the Chinese chemical product price index rose to 4084, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%. The year - on - year decline in PPI of the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing and chemical fiber manufacturing industries in December has narrowed, indicating that the industry's price pressure is continuously easing [1]. - The newly revised "Regulations for the Implementation of the Drug Administration Law of the People's Republic of China" was announced on the 27th and will come into effect on May 15. Encouraging innovation is a prominent feature of this revision [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Upstream - **Chemical**: The price of PTA continues to rise [1]. - **Energy**: The prices of international crude oil and liquefied natural gas have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Midstream - **Chemical**: The PX operating rate remains at a high level [2]. - **Energy**: The coal consumption of power plants continues at a low level [2]. - **Infrastructure**: The operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [2]. 3.3 Downstream - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [2]. - **Service**: The number of domestic flights has increased [2]. 3.4 Key Industry Price Indicators - **Agriculture**: On January 27, the spot prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, cotton, and pork increased year - on - year by 0.19%, 5.81%, 2.46%, 0.64%, and 0.92% respectively [36]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, and nickel increased year - on - year by 0.85%, 1.76%, 0.76%, and 2.34% respectively, while the spot price of aluminum decreased by 0.18% [36]. - **Ferrous Metals**: On January 27, the spot price of iron ore increased year - on - year by 1.13%, while the spot prices of rebar and wire decreased by 0.35% and 1.15% respectively [36]. - **Non - metals**: On January 27, the spot prices of glass and natural rubber increased year - on - year by 1.56% and 2.79% respectively, and the China Plastic City price index increased by 0.46% [36]. - **Energy**: On January 27, the spot prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas increased year - on - year by 2.17%, 1.58%, and 3.63% respectively, while the coal price decreased by 0.12% [36]. - **Chemical**: On January 27, the spot prices of PTA and polyethylene increased year - on - year by about 5.87% and 2.18% respectively, while the spot prices of urea and soda ash decreased by 0.43% and 0.12% respectively [36]. - **Real Estate**: On January 27, the national cement price index and building materials composite index decreased year - on - year by 0.75% and 0.46% respectively, and the national concrete price index remained unchanged [36].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The mid - stream is continuously differentiating, and the prices of the upstream are warming up [1] - The production industry in Beijing encourages the development of value - added services based on commercial satellite data and the integration of the industrial chain [1] - The service industry will develop service trade, open up the service market, and promote the export of various services [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - In the non - ferrous metals sector, the price of nickel has rebounded [2] - In the agricultural sector, the prices of eggs and palm oil have rebounded [2] - In the energy sector, the price of liquefied natural gas has continued to rise [2] Mid - stream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX and urea have remained at high levels [3] - In the energy industry, the coal consumption of power plants is at a low level [3] - In the infrastructure industry, the operating rate of road asphalt is at a low level [3] Downstream - In the real estate industry, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have seasonally declined [3] - In the service industry, the number of domestic flights has continued to increase [3] Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: On January 26, the spot price of corn was 2267.1 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.13%; the spot price of eggs was 8.3 yuan/kg with a year - on - year increase of 5.48%; the spot price of palm oil was 9000.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 3.16%; the spot price of cotton was 15997.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the average wholesale price of pork was 18.7 yuan/kg with a year - on - year increase of 0.81% [38] - Non - ferrous metals: On January 26, the spot price of copper was 102426.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.27%; the spot price of zinc was 24682.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 1.15%; the spot price of aluminum was 24040.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.63%; the spot price of nickel was 153883.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 5.66%; the spot price of aluminum was 17031.3 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% [38] - Ferrous metals: On January 26, the spot price of rebar was 3214.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.55%; the spot price of iron ore was 815.6 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.08%; the spot price of wire rod was 3425.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%; the spot price of glass was 13.1 yuan/square meter with a year - on - year increase of 1.56% [38] - Non - metals: On January 26, the spot price of natural rubber was 16016.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 3.50%; the China Plastics City Price Index was 777.6 with a year - on - year increase of 0.30% [38] - Energy: On January 26, the spot price of WTI crude oil was 61.1 US dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 2.92%; the spot price of Brent crude oil was 65.1 US dollars/barrel with a year - on - year increase of 1.47%; the spot price of liquefied natural gas was 3668.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 4.38%; the coal price was 806.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.37% [38] - Chemical industry: On January 26, the spot price of PTA was 5247.5 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 4.75%; the spot price of polyethylene was 6846.7 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 0.54%; the spot price of urea was 1745.0 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 1.27%; the spot price of soda ash was 1202.9 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 0.94% [38] - Real estate: On January 26, the national cement price index was 133.5 with a year - on - year decrease of 0.75%; the building materials composite index was 114.9 with a year - on - year decrease of 0.74%; the national concrete price index was 90.2 with a year - on - year change of 0.00% [38]

报告期间的股东应占未经审核综合溢利预期减少主要由于以下因素所致： (i) 于报告期间，集团原油销 售平均售价较截至2024年12月31日止年度大幅下降; (ii) 于报告期间，原材料成本较截至2024年12月31日 止年度大幅上升，尤以Portland Aluminium Smelter生产所用的氧化铝为甚;(iii) 因集团自2024年7月18日 起不再持有Alumina Limited任何权益，导致应占联营公司的溢利大幅减少;及 (iv) 应占主要从事开发、 生产和销售石油及生产和销售道路沥青和澄清油的合营企业的溢利较截至2024年12月31日止年度大幅减 少，此乃因报告期间内原油价格下跌所致。 中信资源(01205)发布公告，集团预期于截至2025年12月31日止年度录得股东应占未经审核综合溢利约 1.70亿港元至2.30 亿港元，较截至2024年12月31日止年度减少约60%至70%。 ...

公告表示，报告期间的股东应占未经审核综合溢利预期减少主要由于以下因素所致：(i)于报告期间，集 团原油销售平均售价较截至2024年12月31日止年度大幅下降；(ii)于报告期间，原材料成本较截至2024 年12月31日止年度大幅上升，尤以Portland Aluminium Smelter生产所用的氧化铝为甚；(iii)因集团自 2024年7月18日起不再持有Alumina Limited任何权益，导致应占联营公司的溢利大幅减少；及(iv)应占主 要从事开发、生产和销售石油及生产和销售道路沥青和澄清油的合营企业的溢利较截至2024年12月31日 止年度大幅减少，此因报告期间内原油价格下跌所致。 格隆汇12月31日丨中信资源(01205.HK)发布公告，集团预期于截至2025年12月31日止年度("报告期间") 录得股东应占未经审核综合溢利约1.70亿港元至2.30亿港元，较截至2024年12月31日止年度减少约60% 至70%。 ...

报告期间的股东应占未经审核综合溢利预期减少主要由于以下因素所致： (i) 于报告期间，集团原油销 售平均售价较截至2024年12月31日止年度大幅下降; (ii) 于报告期间，原材料成本较截至2024年12月31日 止年度大幅上升，尤以Portland Aluminium Smelter生产所用的氧化铝为甚;(iii) 因集团自2024年7月18日 起不再持有Alumina Limited任何权益，导致应占联营公司的溢利大幅减少;及 (iv) 应占主要从事开发、 生产和销售石油及生产和销售道路沥青和澄清油的合营企业的溢利较截至2024年12月31日止年度大幅减 少，此乃因报告期间内原油价格下跌所致。 智通财经APP讯，中信资源(01205)发布公告，集团预期于截至2025年12月31日止年度录得股东应占未经 审核综合溢利约1.70亿港元至2.30 亿港元，较截至2024年12月31日止年度减少约60%至70%。 ...

Industry Overview - The report focuses on the upstream, midstream, and downstream industries, analyzing price fluctuations, production, and sales trends [1][3] Upstream Industry - In the non - ferrous metals sector, nickel and lead prices have declined; in the agricultural sector, pork prices have slightly decreased; in the energy sector, international crude oil and liquefied natural gas prices continue to fall [3] - As of December 17, the prices of some agricultural products such as eggs, palm oil, and pork have decreased, while the prices of corn and cotton have increased; among non - ferrous metals, the prices of zinc and some aluminum products have decreased, while the prices of copper, nickel, and some other aluminum products have increased; in the energy sector, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, liquefied natural gas, and coal have decreased [36] Midstream Industry - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of PX and PTA have declined; in the energy sector, the coal consumption of power plants has increased; in the infrastructure sector, the operating rate of road asphalt has decreased [3] Downstream Industry - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in first, second, and third - tier cities have continued to pick up at the end of the year; in the service sector, the number of domestic and international flights has continued to decline [3] Policy and Data - The National Development and Reform Commission and other departments have issued the "Benchmark Levels and Baseline Levels for the Clean and Efficient Utilization of Coal in Key Areas (2025 Edition)", aiming to promote the clean and efficient utilization of coal and eliminate backward production capacity [1] - From January to November 2025, the stamp duty was 404.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 27%. Among them, the securities trading stamp duty was 185.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 70.7%. In November 2025, the securities trading stamp duty was 22.6 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 24.86% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of 2.26% compared with November 2024 [1]

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, the 8th China International Import Expo was held in Shanghai from November 5th to 10th [1]. - In the service industry, the State Council issued the holiday arrangements for 2026 on November 4th, with the Spring Festival having a 9 - day holiday, and ticket search volumes on the platform soared. The central bank conducted a 700 billion - yuan 3 - month买断式逆回购 on November 5th [1]. - In the upstream market, liquefied natural gas and palm oil prices declined. In the mid - stream, PX and road asphalt开工 rates increased, and power plant coal inventories piled up. In the downstream, real - estate sales in first, second, and third - tier cities dropped, while domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industry Total Overview Upstream - Energy: Liquefied natural gas prices fell [2]. - Agriculture: Palm oil prices decreased [2]. Mid - stream - Chemical: PX开工 rate went up [2]. - Energy: Power plant coal inventories accumulated [2]. - Infrastructure: Road asphalt开工 rate rose slightly [2]. Downstream - Real estate: Commodity housing sales in first, second, and third - tier cities declined [2]. - Service: Domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [2]. Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: The prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, and pork decreased, while the price of cotton increased slightly [34]. - Non - ferrous metals: The prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and aluminum showed different trends, with copper prices falling and zinc and aluminum prices rising [34]. - Ferrous metals: The prices of iron ore, wire rod, and glass had different trends, with iron ore prices rising [34]. - Non - metals: The prices of natural rubber and the China Plastic City Price Index decreased [34]. - Energy: The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas decreased, while coal prices increased [34]. - Chemicals: The prices of polyethylene, urea, and soda ash decreased, while the price of PTA increased slightly [34]. - Real estate: The building materials comprehensive index and the national concrete price index decreased [34].

Core Viewpoint - The Liaohe Petrochemical Company is undertaking a comprehensive construction project to adjust the product structure of its lubricating oil, which includes the establishment of new processing facilities to enhance production capacity and optimize product offerings [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project has completed the pile foundation construction for the heating furnace area and is currently working on the pile foundation for the distribution room area [1] - The main engineering components of the project include the construction of a 500,000 tons/year solvent deasphalting unit and a 400,000 tons/year lubricating oil hydrocracking unit [1] Group 2: Product Development - Upon implementation, the project will enable Liaohe Petrochemical to produce high-end lubricating oil raw materials and products, including high viscosity index base oils and bright oils, which are in significant market demand [1] - The product range will cover high viscosity lubricating oil base oils, aromatic and naphthenic rubber plasticizers, transformer heat transfer oils, and bright oils, thereby optimizing the overall product structure of the company [1] Group 3: Production Strategy - The company aims to increase the production of market-oriented specialty refining products such as naphthenic rubber plasticizers, bright oils, transformer oils, and II/III class base oils through the new units [1] - The project will utilize various oil fractions and heavy oil residues to achieve a scale, differentiation, and base-oriented production of lubricating oils [1]