宏观日报 | 2025-12-18 关注上游价格波动，中游开工低位 中观事件总览 生产行业：1）国家发展改革委等部门发布《煤炭清洁高效利用重点领域标杆水平和基准水平（2025年版）》。其中 提到，鼓励和引导行业企业结合实际和长远发展，对项目实施改造升级。对新建煤炭开发利用项目和有条件的存 量项目，推动清洁高效利用水平应提尽提，力争达到标杆水平。对清洁高效利用水平低于现有基准水平的存量项 目，引导企业有序开展煤炭清洁高效利用改造，加快推动企业减污降碳，坚决依法依规淘汰落后产能、落后工艺。 服务行业：1）财政部发布2025年1—11月财政收支情况，1—11月，印花税4044亿元，同比增长27%。其中，证券 交易印花税1855亿元，同比增长70.7%。据财政部此前发布的数据，2025年1—10月证券交易印花税收入为1629亿 元，这意味着今年11月证券交易印花税为226亿元，相较于10月的181亿元环比增长24.86%。此外，2024年11月证 券交易印花税为221亿元，经计算，今年11月证券交易印花税同比微增2.26%。 数据来源：iFind，华泰期货研究院 行业总览 风险 经济政策超预期，全球地缘政治冲突 20 ...

Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, the 8th China International Import Expo was held in Shanghai from November 5th to 10th [1]. - In the service industry, the State Council issued the holiday arrangements for 2026 on November 4th, with the Spring Festival having a 9 - day holiday, and ticket search volumes on the platform soared. The central bank conducted a 700 billion - yuan 3 - month买断式逆回购 on November 5th [1]. - In the upstream market, liquefied natural gas and palm oil prices declined. In the mid - stream, PX and road asphalt开工 rates increased, and power plant coal inventories piled up. In the downstream, real - estate sales in first, second, and third - tier cities dropped, while domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Industry Total Overview Upstream - Energy: Liquefied natural gas prices fell [2]. - Agriculture: Palm oil prices decreased [2]. Mid - stream - Chemical: PX开工 rate went up [2]. - Energy: Power plant coal inventories accumulated [2]. - Infrastructure: Road asphalt开工 rate rose slightly [2]. Downstream - Real estate: Commodity housing sales in first, second, and third - tier cities declined [2]. - Service: Domestic flight frequencies increased slightly [2]. Key Industry Price Indicators - Agricultural products: The prices of corn, eggs, palm oil, and pork decreased, while the price of cotton increased slightly [34]. - Non - ferrous metals: The prices of copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, and aluminum showed different trends, with copper prices falling and zinc and aluminum prices rising [34]. - Ferrous metals: The prices of iron ore, wire rod, and glass had different trends, with iron ore prices rising [34]. - Non - metals: The prices of natural rubber and the China Plastic City Price Index decreased [34]. - Energy: The prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and liquefied natural gas decreased, while coal prices increased [34]. - Chemicals: The prices of polyethylene, urea, and soda ash decreased, while the price of PTA increased slightly [34]. - Real estate: The building materials comprehensive index and the national concrete price index decreased [34].

Core Viewpoint - The Liaohe Petrochemical Company is undertaking a comprehensive construction project to adjust the product structure of its lubricating oil, which includes the establishment of new processing facilities to enhance production capacity and optimize product offerings [1] Group 1: Project Overview - The project has completed the pile foundation construction for the heating furnace area and is currently working on the pile foundation for the distribution room area [1] - The main engineering components of the project include the construction of a 500,000 tons/year solvent deasphalting unit and a 400,000 tons/year lubricating oil hydrocracking unit [1] Group 2: Product Development - Upon implementation, the project will enable Liaohe Petrochemical to produce high-end lubricating oil raw materials and products, including high viscosity index base oils and bright oils, which are in significant market demand [1] - The product range will cover high viscosity lubricating oil base oils, aromatic and naphthenic rubber plasticizers, transformer heat transfer oils, and bright oils, thereby optimizing the overall product structure of the company [1] Group 3: Production Strategy - The company aims to increase the production of market-oriented specialty refining products such as naphthenic rubber plasticizers, bright oils, transformer oils, and II/III class base oils through the new units [1] - The project will utilize various oil fractions and heavy oil residues to achieve a scale, differentiation, and base-oriented production of lubricating oils [1]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook on Sichuan Road and Bridge as a leading player in Southwest infrastructure, highlighting its current combination of regional infrastructure growth and dividend yield [3][15]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of local manufacturing in Africa, particularly for companies like Keda Manufacturing, which is positioned as a leader in localized production and sales [4][16]. - The report notes a price increase in RTF copper foil, indicating a high demand for HVLP products, and suggests continued investment in copper foil and electronic cloth sectors [5][17]. - The report tracks the performance of various materials, indicating a downward trend in cement prices and a mixed outlook for glass and fiberglass markets [6][18][22]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - Sichuan Road and Bridge is highlighted for its strong position in Southwest infrastructure, with a reported investment of 134.9 billion yuan in transportation construction, ranking second nationally and showing a 3.5% increase year-on-year [3][15]. Cyclical Linkage - Cement prices averaged 340 yuan per ton, down 43 yuan year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 44.7% [6][18]. - Glass prices increased to 1295.28 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.58% rise, while concrete mixing stations reported a capacity utilization rate of 7.12% [6][18]. - The report warns of potential price declines in steel due to market fundamentals [6][18]. National Subsidy Tracking - The report mentions the allocation of 690 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement subsidies, with plans for further funding in October [7][19]. Important Changes - Notable acquisitions include Defu Technology's purchase of Circuit Foil Luxembourg for 174 million euros and the listing of Hanhai Group on the A-share market [8][20][21]. Market Performance - The construction materials index fell by 3.96% over the week, with specific declines in glass manufacturing and fiberglass sectors [24]. Material Price Changes - Cement prices continued to decline, with a national average of 340 yuan per ton, while glass prices showed a slight increase [32][41]. - Fiberglass prices remained under pressure, with a reported average of 3595.25 yuan per ton [66].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the successful expansion and modernization of the Caspian Asphalt Plant in Kazakhstan, a joint venture between CITIC Group and the Kazakh National Oil and Gas Company, which plays a crucial role in meeting the asphalt demand for infrastructure development in Kazakhstan and exemplifies the practical cooperation under the Belt and Road Initiative [1] Group 1: Company Overview - The Caspian Asphalt Plant is the only facility in Central Asia dedicated to producing high-standard road asphalt and is the first large-scale petrochemical project established in Kazakhstan post-independence [1] - The plant's annual crude oil processing capacity has been increased from 1 million tons to 1.5 million tons, and the annual asphalt output has risen from 500,000 tons to 750,000 tons following the recent upgrade [1] Group 2: Technological Advancements - The modernization project was undertaken by CITIC Construction Co., Ltd., utilizing entirely Chinese technology and equipment, and was completed ahead of schedule, receiving high praise from Kazakhstan's President Tokayev and the Ministry of Energy [1] - Advanced technologies such as low-nitrogen burners and waste heat recovery systems have been implemented to reduce pollutant emissions and enhance energy recycling [1] Group 3: Strategic Importance - The plant is viewed as a strategic project that will enhance Kazakhstan's industrial capacity and facilitate economic transformation, with expectations for more modern projects in collaboration with China [1] - The facility's advanced production technology and automation are seen as a reflection of the capacity cooperation between China and Central Asian countries, with potential for similar projects in Tajikistan [1]