Report Overview - The report is an event review of the economic data for July 2025 released by the National Bureau of Statistics on August 15, 2025, covering production, consumption, investment, market, and bond market views [1]. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6]. Summary by Section Production - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month growth rate was 0.38%. The growth rate slowed down slightly due to seasonal factors [2]. - The equipment manufacturing industry continued to play a key role in industrial production. In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the added value of the equipment manufacturing industry above the designated size was 8.4%, significantly supporting the growth of industrial enterprises above the designated size [2]. - The high - end trend of the manufacturing industry continued. In July, the year - on - year growth rates of the added value of the high - tech manufacturing industry and the digital product manufacturing industry above the designated size were 9.3% and 8.4% respectively, both higher than the growth rate of industrial enterprises above the designated size. The integrated circuit and electronic special material manufacturing industries grew by 26.9% and 21.7% respectively [2]. Consumption - In July, the year - on - year growth rate of the total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, 1.1 percentage points slower than that in June, and the month - on - month decline was 0.14%. The year - on - year decline in total retail sales was mainly due to the suspension of national subsidies in some regions [3]. - In July, the year - on - year growth rates of catering revenue and catering revenue of units above the designated size were 1.1% and - 0.3% respectively, up 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from June. With the cooling of subsidies on food delivery platforms, catering revenue is expected to bottom out and rebound [3]. Investment - From January to July, the year - on - year growth rate of fixed asset investment was 1.6%, 1.2 percentage points lower than that from January to June; after excluding real estate development investment, the year - on - year growth rate of national fixed asset investment was 5.3%, 1.3 percentage points lower than that from January to June [4]. - The investment in water conservancy management and information transmission industries from January to July increased by 12.6% and 8.3% respectively. The investment in equipment and tools increased by 15.2% year - on - year, accounting for 16.2% of the total investment and driving the overall investment growth by 2.2 percentage points [4]. - From January to July, the year - on - year decline in real estate development investment was 12%, 0.8 percentage points wider than that from January to June. The sales area and sales volume of newly built commercial housing decreased by 4.0% and 6.5% respectively year - on - year, with the decline rates 0.5 and 1.0 percentage points wider than those from January to June, both at the lowest growth rates of the year. The real estate investment is searching for the bottom. The national real estate climate index further declined to 93.34, still in a low - level climate range [4]. Market - After the economic data were released at 10:00, the yields fluctuated downward under the push of the fundamentals and the support of funds. However, after the mid - day break, affected by the strong performance of the stock market, the yields fluctuated upward again [5]. Bond Market Viewpoints - Under the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trendingly. For the allocation between stocks and bonds, the report maintains the view that in the second half of 2025, the economic growth rate may not decline significantly; structural issues such as prices are trending towards improvement; the allocation between stocks and bonds will continue to shift, with bond yields and the stock market expected to rise continuously [6].

Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in the previous month and below the expected 5.8%[4] - The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decline from 4.8% in June and below the forecast of 4.9%[4] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, lower than the expected 2.7% and the previous value of 2.8%[4] - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, up from 5.0% in June[4] Industrial and Investment Trends - The manufacturing sector's investment saw a significant decline, with a monthly year-on-year decrease of -0.3% in July, down 5.4 percentage points from the previous value[23] - Infrastructure investment also turned negative, with a monthly year-on-year decline of -5.1% in July, significantly lower than the previous month's performance[27] - The real estate development investment fell sharply, with a monthly year-on-year decrease exceeding four percentage points compared to the previous month[31] Consumer Behavior and Market Dynamics - The service retail sector showed resilience, with strong growth in categories like home appliances and cultural products, despite overall retail sales weakening[18] - The consumer confidence and spending power remain low, necessitating further policy measures to stimulate consumption[14] - Seasonal factors contributed to a slight increase in the unemployment rate, with the influx of new graduates into the job market exacerbating the supply-demand mismatch[33]

Core Insights - Kyrgyzstan's GDP for January to July is estimated at 865.2 billion som (approximately 9.9 billion USD), reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [1] Economic Structure - The service sector constitutes 51.1% of the economy, while goods production accounts for 32.8%, and product taxes make up 16.1% [1] Sector Performance - Industrial output increased by 11.3%, with mining growing by 14.6% and manufacturing by 11% [1] - The construction sector showed significant growth with a 37.8% increase in output [1] - Wholesale and retail trade grew by 13.2%, while the hotel and restaurant sector saw a 27.8% increase [1] - Agricultural, forestry, and fishing sectors experienced a modest growth of 2.3% [1] - Freight volume increased by 11.6%, and communication services grew by 6.3% compared to the same period last year [1] Inflation and Trade - Consumer prices and tax rates rose by 4.7% from December of the previous year [1] - External trade for January to June totaled 6.9987 billion USD, a decrease of 12.4% year-on-year, with exports down by 26.3% to 1.0488 billion USD and imports down by 9.4% to 5.9501 billion USD [1]

Economic Overview - The economy in July shows signs of weak recovery, with a potential trend of high-to-low performance throughout the year, indicating increased volatility due to external uncertainties[1] - The nominal GDP is projected to reach around 140 trillion yuan, with limited elasticity in growth rates and GDP deflator index in the second half of the year[12] Industrial Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations, while month-on-month growth was 0.38%[14] - Manufacturing demand is recovering but showing signs of marginal slowdown, with the new orders index at 49.4%, indicating a decrease in manufacturing market demand[16] Consumer Spending - The retail sales of consumer goods in July grew by 3.7% year-on-year, down from 4.8% in June, with a notable decline of 1.1 percentage points[19] - Factors affecting retail sales include reduced funding for the "old-for-new" policy, which decreased from 162 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 to 138 billion yuan in the second half[21] Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6%, which is below market expectations of 2.7%[29] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0%[29] Employment Trends - The urban surveyed unemployment rate in July was 5.2%, slightly up from the previous month, reflecting seasonal pressures from the graduation season[6] - Employment policies are being implemented to mitigate youth unemployment, including support for job creation in various sectors[6] Investment Outlook - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2% year-on-year, but July recorded a negative growth of -0.3%, the first negative reading since July 2020, primarily due to high base effects and uncertainties from trade tensions[45] - The overall investment environment remains cautious, with private investment declining by 1.5% year-on-year, particularly in the real estate sector[29]

Consumption Data - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, marking a decline of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month and the lowest monthly growth rate this year[3] - Retail sales of automobiles fell by 1.5% year-on-year, a significant drop of 6.1 percentage points compared to June, closely linked to the recent downturn in the real estate market[3] - Retail sales of communication equipment rose by 14.9%, while home appliances and furniture grew by 28.7% and 20.6%, respectively, despite declines from June[3] Investment and Real Estate - Fixed asset investment saw a sharp decline of 5.3% year-on-year in July, the largest drop since April 2020[4] - Real estate development investment fell by 17.0% year-on-year, the lowest since December 2022, indicating a renewed acceleration in market adjustments[4] - The area of residential sales decreased by 7.1% year-on-year, remaining at a low level despite a slight improvement[5] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate fell to 5.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points, with the mining and manufacturing sectors also experiencing declines[6] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a significant drop of 2.9 percentage points to 8.5%, the lowest since November 2024, reflecting the combined effects of supply-side policies and demand cooling[6] Policy Implications - The simultaneous cooling of retail, investment, and real estate markets in July may signal the need for policy measures in the second half of the year[6] - The central government may need to implement larger subsidies for durable goods consumption and consider a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points to stabilize the real estate market[6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of China's economy in July, highlighting a slowdown in key economic indicators due to external and domestic challenges, including extreme weather and trade tensions. The focus is on maintaining policy stability and promoting domestic demand to support economic growth [3][4][5]. Economic Performance - In July, China's industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from June. The retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7%, also down by 1.1 percentage points from the previous month [3][4]. - Fixed asset investment from January to July rose by 1.6% year-on-year, with a decline of 1.2 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3][4]. Industrial Production - The manufacturing sector showed a growth of 6.2% in July, while the mining industry grew by 5.0% and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector increased by 3.3% [4]. - The article notes that the "two new" initiatives are positively impacting industrial production, with significant growth in shipbuilding and electric motor manufacturing [4][5]. Consumer Market - The consumer market showed a mixed performance, with retail sales growth slowing down in July but service sector sales remaining stable. The overall retail sales growth for services was 5.2% from January to July [10][11]. - The article emphasizes the impact of policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods, which has led to substantial growth in categories like electric bicycles and 5G smartphones [10][11]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment reached 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, with a 1.6% year-on-year increase. Excluding real estate, investment grew by 5.3% [14]. - Infrastructure investment rose by 3.2%, while manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%. However, real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [14][15]. - The article highlights that despite a nominal slowdown in investment growth, the actual physical workload remains robust, driven by innovation and equipment upgrades [14][16]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that while there are pressures on investment growth, the potential for future investment remains significant, particularly in new productive forces and urban-rural coordination [16]. - The need for continued policy support to enhance domestic demand and innovation is emphasized to ensure sustainable economic development [5][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View In July 2025, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the national economy maintained a steady - advancing development trend, with sustained growth in production and demand, overall stable employment and prices, the cultivation and expansion of new - quality productive forces, and new achievements in high - quality development [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In July, the national above - scale industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. From January to June, the total profit of above - scale industrial enterprises was 34365 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Service - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year. From January to July, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, and the service industry business activity expectation index was 56.6%. Some industries were in the high - level boom range [4]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 38780 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284238 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The national online retail sales were 86835 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2% year - on - year [5]. Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 5.3%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [6]. Import and Export - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39102 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 256969 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports increased by 7.3%, and imports decreased by 1.6% [7]. Price - In July, the national consumer price (CPI) was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [8]. Employment - From January to July, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%. In July, it was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same as the same month last year [9].

Economic Overview - China's economy showed stable operation in July, but some economic indicators experienced a decline due to external complexities and extreme weather conditions [2][4] - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year, a slowdown of 1.1 percentage points compared to June [2][4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, also down by 1.1 percentage points from June [2][8] Industrial Production - Industrial production growth slightly slowed in July, with the mining sector increasing by 5.0%, manufacturing by 6.2%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply by 3.3% [4][6] - The "Two New" initiatives and equipment upgrades contributed positively to industrial production, with shipbuilding and motor manufacturing seeing increases of 29.7% and 15.9%, respectively [4][6] - Despite the overall stability in industrial production, external pressures and internal competition may lead to a potential decline in growth rates [5][6] Investment Trends - From January to July, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288.229 billion yuan, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment up by 3.2% and manufacturing investment by 6.2% [11][12] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 12.0% [11] - Investment in high-tech sectors such as aerospace and computer manufacturing showed robust growth, with increases of 33.9% and 16%, respectively [12] Consumer Market - The service sector maintained stable growth, with service retail sales increasing by 5.2% from January to July, while the overall consumer market showed signs of slowing down [8][9] - Policies promoting the replacement of old consumer goods positively impacted sales, particularly in home appliances and communication devices [8][9] - The tourism and leisure sectors experienced significant growth, driven by increased consumer demand during the summer [8][9]

Economic Growth - In July, the industrial added value increased by 5.7% year-on-year, down from 6.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 6.3% from January to July[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.7% year-on-year in July, a decrease from 4.8% in June, with a cumulative growth of 4.8% from January to July[1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year from January to July, down from 2.8% in the previous period, with an annual growth target of 3.2%[1] Industrial Production - The industrial added value growth rate slowed by 1.1 percentage points in July, primarily due to weak domestic demand and external pressures[3] - Mining industry added value grew by 5.0%, down 1.1 percentage points, while manufacturing added value increased by 6.2%, down 1.2 percentage points[4] - Export delivery value only grew by 0.8% in July, a significant drop of 3.2 percentage points from the previous month[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales growth slowed to 3.7% in July, primarily due to the suspension of the old-for-new consumption policy in some regions[6] - The retail sales of furniture, home appliances, and cultural office supplies increased by 20.6%, 28.7%, and 13.8% respectively, but growth rates decreased compared to June[6] - Cumulative retail sales growth from January to July was 4.8%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points compared to the same period last year[7] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth from January to July was 1.6%, down 1.2 percentage points, with declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments[8] - Manufacturing investment growth was 6.2%, down 1.3 percentage points, influenced by external environment fluctuations and the implementation of anti-"involution" policies[8] - Real estate investment saw a cumulative decline of 12.0% from January to July, with a worsening drop of 0.8 percentage points compared to the previous period[10] Future Outlook - Economic growth momentum is expected to remain weak in August, with potential policy measures anticipated in the fourth quarter to stabilize the economy[12] - The macroeconomic policy may include increased fiscal support, interest rate cuts, and stronger measures to stabilize the real estate market[12] - The overall economic growth target for the year is around 5.0%, with expectations of a decline in industrial production growth due to weakening export momentum[12]

Economic Overview - In July, the national economy maintained a steady and progressive development trend, with industrial added value increasing by 5.7% year-on-year and retail sales of consumer goods reaching 38,780 billion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year [1][2][10] Industrial Production - The industrial added value for July increased by 5.7% year-on-year and 0.38% month-on-month, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors growing by 5.0%, 6.2%, and 3.3% respectively [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing saw significant growth, with increases of 9.3% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [3] - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was recorded at 49.3, indicating a slight contraction in manufacturing activity [3] Service Sector - The service sector production index rose by 5.8% year-on-year in July, with notable growth in information transmission, finance, and business services [4] - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.0, indicating stability, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.6, suggesting positive future expectations [4] Retail Sales - Retail sales of consumer goods totaled 38,780 billion yuan in July, marking a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with urban and rural retail sales growing by 3.6% and 3.9%, respectively [5] - Online retail sales reached 86,835 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year, with physical goods accounting for 24.9% of total retail sales [5] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288,229 billion yuan from January to July, growing by 1.6% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 6.2% [6] - Infrastructure investment grew by 3.2%, while real estate development investment saw a decline of 12.0% [6] Trade and Exports - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39,102 billion yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, with exports increasing by 8.0% and imports by 4.8% [7] - From January to July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 256,969 billion yuan, a 3.5% increase year-on-year [7] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate was stable at 5.2% in July, with a slight seasonal increase [8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year in July, with core CPI rising by 0.8% [9]