长江商报消息 ●长江商报记者 沈右荣 中国最大的铜产品加工企业江西铜业（600362.SH）盈利能力仍然在提升。 最新披露的2024年年度报告显示，江西铜业实现营业收入约5209亿元，较上年略有下降；归属于母公司 股东的净利润（以下简称"归母净利润"）接近70亿元，同比增长逾7%；扣除非经常性损益的净利润 （简称"扣非净利润"）约83亿元，同比增长约54%。 归母净利润与扣非净利润之间相差约13亿元，源于非经常性损益。2024年，公司期货平仓亏损，投资净 收益出现大额亏损。 2024年，江西铜业财务承压。截至2024年底，公司货币资金303.76亿元，较上年末减少约50亿元，对应 的债务增加百亿左右。（均不含购买理财、关联方存款等） 投资收益拖累净利增速 江西铜业经营业绩继续保持了增长。 年报显示，2024年，江西铜业实现营业收入5209.28亿元，同比微降0.18%；归母净利润69.62亿元，同 比增长7.03%；扣非净利润82.87亿元，同比增长54.22%。 此前的2022年、2023年，公司实现的营业收入分别为4799.38亿元、5218.93亿元，同比增长8.40%、 8.74%；归母净利润分别为5 ...

美国全面对等征税正在引发市场资金涌入黄金市场避险。 3月31日，全球金融市场上演经典避险行情，大量资金涌入黄金、日元、美债等传统避险板块。纽约黄金 期货价格最高达到3162美元/盎司，刷新历史高点；美元兑日元跌至149关口下方，而10年期美债收益率 暴跌超6个基点至4.18%。而国内黄金期货市场，有超过11亿元资金流入。 业内人士表示，随着全球贸易体系不稳定加剧，今年第二季度金价出现明显回调的可能性仍然较低，资金 避险倾向仍然居于高位，黄金行情可能仍未结束。 国内黄金期货流入超11亿元 随着4月2日美国实施对等征税的临近，全球金融市场避险情绪越发高涨。3月31日周一，市场上黄金闪 耀、日元狂舞、美债收益率下滑三大信号同时闪现，市场已对潜在风险拉响最高级别警报。 3月31日，纽约期货交易所（COMEX）黄金期货价格，盘中一度刷新历史高点至3162美元/盎司，再创历 史记录新高。伦敦现货黄金盘中一度至3128美元/盎司，今年以来，全球现货黄金的累计涨幅已经超过 18%，大幅跑赢全球股市主要股指，是表现最好的资产之一。 国内黄金期货主力合约盘中最高达到732.10元/克，现货黄金T+D以最高价收盘达到730.60元 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - range - bound; Medium - term - bullish [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term (intraday) - short - term bonds narrow - range bound, long - term bonds poised for rebound; Medium - term - bullish [2] - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Copper**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 79000 - 81000; Medium - term - range between 66000 - 90000 [4] - **Industrial Silicon**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level operation in the range of 9700 - 9900; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 9600 - 11000 [8] - **Polysilicon**: Short - term (intraday) - range between 43000 - 44000; Medium - term - low - level operation in the range of 43000 - 47000 [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Short - term (intraday) - low - level oscillation in the range of 73500 - 74500; Medium - term - fluctuate around production cost in the range of 65000 - 85000 [12] 2. Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflow. Overseas, Trump's tariff policy expansion and high inflation in the US add uncertainties. The equity market will return to fundamentals, with short - term focus on positive performance expectations and medium - term continuation of domestic technology innovation theme [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Central bank's net capital withdrawal, policy focus on long - term bond yields, and weak economic fundamentals support long - term bond prices [2][3]. - **Copper**: Global copper concentrate supply - demand tightness, US tariff - induced demand front - loading, and reduced scrap copper exports boost copper prices, but high prices may suppress demand [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand lead to low - level operation [8][9]. - **Polysilicon**: High inventory, declining production, and weak demand result in low - level operation [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: High production capacity, high inventory, and low - level spot prices are negative for lithium carbonate prices [13]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures**: - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio, hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Increase long positions in T2506 and TL2506 on dips [2] Commodity Futures and Options - **Copper**: - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a bullish - biased trading approach; copper - using enterprises can buy for hedging on dips [4] - **Supply**: Codelco expects 2025 production to reach 137 - 140 million tons. Many companies have production changes in 2024 and plans for 2025 [5] - **Demand**: Q1 2025 domestic power grid data is strong, but some demand indicators show fluctuations [6][7] - **Inventory**: LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventories have decreased [7] - **Industrial Silicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell SI2505 - C - 12000 and hold [8] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 16.04% year - on - year [8] - **Demand**: February 2025 polysilicon production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [9] - **Inventory**: As of March 21, 2025, social inventory is high [9] - **Polysilicon**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell PS2505 - C - 47000 and hold [10] - **Supply**: February 2025 production decreased by 44.72% year - on - year [10] - **Demand**: February 2025 silicon wafer production decreased by 15.94% year - on - year [11] - **Inventory**: As of March 23, 2025, social inventory is high [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: - **Reference Strategy**: Sell LC2505 - C - 90000 and hold [13] - **Supply**: February 2025 production capacity reached a 4 - year high, and production increased year - on - year [13] - **Inventory**: As of February 28, 2025, total inventory is at a high level [13]

"有色之王"狂飙。 受特朗普政府的关税刺激，被称为"有色之王"的铜价格飙涨。今日早间，COMEX铜期货价格直线拉升，再度创出历 史新高。美东时间25日，COMEX铜期货价格大幅飙涨，盘中一度大涨超2.3%。 受铜期货价格大涨影响，今日A股有色金属板块全线大涨，其中，众源新材涨停，北方铜业大涨超7%，鑫铂股份、 白银有色、江西铜业、盛达资源、铜陵有色、兴业银锡、洛阳钼业等跟涨。港股部分铜矿股亦集体冲高，中国有色 矿业、金川国际一度大涨超7%，五矿资源最高涨超6%。 有分析称，交易员开始将特朗普可能对这一关键工业金属加征高额进口关税的预期计入价格中。交易员担心未来关 税实施后进口铜成本将大幅增加，所以提前买入纽铜期货进行布局。另外，全球铜供应商、交易商争相在关税落地 前"抢铜"运往美国，导致美国市场对铜的需求预期大增，需求增加推动纽铜价格上升。 摩根大通在最新发布的全球铜市场深度分析报告中预测，到2025年，铜需求将持续增长，价格有望攀升至新高。摩 根大通预计，到2030年，全球铜市场的供需缺口将扩大到每年约300万吨。 直线拉升 北京时间3月26日早间，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）铜期货价格短线拉升，最高报5. ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing significant volatility due to potential import tariffs announced by U.S. President Trump, leading to a surge in copper prices and increased activity in the non-ferrous metal sector [9][11]. Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Activity - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with the sector index rising for three consecutive trading days. Notably, Northern Copper Industry Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000737) reached a limit-up price, achieving a three-day gain of two limit-ups [3][5]. - Other companies in the non-ferrous metal sector, such as Fuda Alloy Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603045), Anhui Zhongyuan New Materials Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603527), and Xinjiang Alloy Investment Co., Ltd. (stock code: 000633), also experienced limit-up trading [5][7]. Copper Price Dynamics - COMEX copper prices reached a historical high of $5.3740 per pound, surpassing the previous record of $5.199 per pound set on May 20 of the previous year, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 30% [9][11]. - Market analysts suggest that while short-term copper prices are influenced by tariff expectations, the medium-term outlook will depend on supply and demand dynamics. Currently, the international copper market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with no significant increase in demand from China [11][12]. Future Outlook - Analysts from CITIC Futures anticipate that copper supply constraints will persist, with marginal demand recovery providing support for copper prices. They expect copper prices to exhibit a strong oscillating trend in the medium to long term [11][12]. - The long-term demand for copper is projected to be driven by growth in the power and electric vehicle sectors, indicating that while significant price increases may be limited, copper prices are likely to remain at elevated levels [11][12].

云南铜业: 关于非公开发行股票之标的资产2024年 度业绩承诺实现情况的专项说明 云南铜业股份有限公司 关于非公开发行股票之标的资产 2024 年度业绩承诺实现情况的专项说明 云南铜业股份有限公司 关于非公开发行股票之标的资产 2024 年度业绩 承诺实现情况的专项说明 根据深圳证券交易所相关规定，云南铜业股份有限公司（简称"本公司"）编制了 《云南铜业股份有限公司关于非公开发行股票之标的资产 2024 年度业绩承诺实现情况 的专项说明》。 一、本次非公开发行及标的资产过户的基本情况 股票的批复》（证监许可〔2022〕1853 号），核准公司非公开发行不超过 509,903,568 股新股。公司本次非公开发行股票的部分募集资金用于收购云南铜业（集团）有限公司 （以下简称"云铜集团"、"补偿主体"）持有的迪庆有色 38.23%股权（以下简称"本次交 易"）。 若目标公司在业绩承诺期内累计实现净利润数高于或等于承诺净利润数，则转让方 无需对受让方进行任何业绩承诺补偿；若目标公司在业绩承诺期内累计实现净利润数低 于承诺净利润数,则转让方应对受让方进行业绩承诺补偿（"业绩承诺补偿"）。具体补偿 计算公式:业绩承诺补偿 ...

云南铜业: 2024年独立董事述职报告（于定明） 云南铜业股份有限公司 独立董事 2024 年度述职报告 报告人：于定明 公司）独立董事，严格按照《公司法》《上市公司独立董事 管理办法》等法律法规和《公司章程》的规定，忠实勤勉地 履行独立董事的职责，发挥专业优势，积极出席相关会议， 审慎认真地行使公司和股东所赋予的权利，及时关注公司经 营情况，有效促进了公司的规范运作。现将履职情况述职如 下： 一、独立董事的基本情况 （一）个人基本情况 于定明，男，1975 年 8 月出生，毕业于中国政法大学， 法学博士，中国国籍，无永久境外居留权。现任云南财经大 学社会稳定风险评估研究中心主任、云南财经大学法政学院 教授委员会主任；上海市汇业（昆明）律师事务所兼职律师。 司独立董事；2023 年 2 月至今任云南锡业股份有限公司独立 董事。2019 年 6 月至今任云南铜业股份有限公司独立董事。 （二）独立性的情况说明 作为公司独立董事，本人未在公司担任除独立董事以外 的其他职务，也未在公司控股股东、其他股东以及关联企业 中担任任何职务，没有为公司或其附属企业提供财务、法律、 咨询等服务，具有《上市公司独立董事管理办法》《 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper prices are surging due to supply tightness and concerns over U.S. tariffs, with significant price movements observed in recent weeks [1][2]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of March 25, 2024, LME copper briefly reached $10,000 per ton, marking a new high since October 2023, while COMEX copper was priced at $5.138 per pound [1][2]. - Year-to-date, COMEX copper has increased by approximately 25%, outperforming both COMEX gold and silver, which rose by 15% [1]. - The price difference between COMEX and LME copper has exceeded $1,300 per ton, indicating significant market arbitrage opportunities [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of copper concentrate is tight, leading to increased processing fees and concerns about smelting capacity, particularly following maintenance announcements from major producers [3]. - A large influx of refined copper, estimated at 100,000 to 150,000 tons, is expected to arrive in the U.S. in the coming weeks, as traders redirect shipments initially intended for Asia [2]. - Domestic copper futures have also surged, with SHFE copper contracts reaching 81,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a daily increase of 1.17% [2]. Group 3: Future Demand Drivers - The ongoing recovery of China's manufacturing sector and advancements in AI technology are expected to significantly boost copper demand [4]. - The deployment of AI hardware and the upgrade of semiconductor manufacturing equipment are anticipated to increase the demand for high-precision copper products [4]. - Recent collaborations, such as the agreement between Northern Copper and Huawei, highlight the industry's focus on digital transformation and infrastructure development [3]. Group 4: Price Forecasts - Analysts predict that copper prices may stabilize around $10,200 per ton by Q4 2025, contingent on U.S. trade policies regarding copper [5]. - Morgan Stanley forecasts a significant increase in global copper demand, projecting a market shortfall of approximately 3 million tons annually by 2030 [5].

百利好晚盘分析：谈判取得进展 警惕回调风险 来源：百利好环球官方微博 黄金方面： 中东地区地缘局势紧张，最令投资者担忧的是胡塞武装地处曼德海峡，美国能源署（EIA）预计，该海 峡每天约720万桶的原油通过，占全球海运原油贸易的10%，若是封锁这一海峡，国际油轮只能绕道好 望角，能源供应将会大受影响。 百利好特约智昇研究国际金融分析师欧文认为，美国和俄罗斯在沙特的谈判表明俄乌局势正在缓和，并 暗示暂停袭击乌克兰的能源设施；但中东地区的局势仍未缓解，美国加大了对也门胡塞武装的袭击，同 时增加了对伊朗的制裁地缘局势可能升级。 技术面：原油近一周多维持震荡上行，对比1月中以来的下跌来看，上涨幅度不大，仍存在下跌的风 险。短线来看，上方关注70-71美元区间的阻力，若能突破则反弹幅度扩大，可以看向74美元一线；若 是遇阻快速下挫，则存在尾部下跌风险。 日经225方面： 日经225上周先反弹后维持震荡，今年2月底跌破去年10月以来的震荡区间，走势转弱。昨日38100一线 的阻力未能突破，后续继续下跌的概率较大，下方关注37400和37000的支撑位。 铜方面： 美俄近日在沙特举行闭门会议，美国国家安全委员会高级主管和俄罗 ...

美国全球抢铜！铜市场迎来重大转折，或引发全球供应紧张，专家预测铜价有 望创历史新高 从产业链来看，铜产业链主要分为上游采矿、中游冶炼加工和下游应用三个环节。上游主要包括铜矿开采和贸易；中游涉及铜的冶炼、精炼和加工，生产电 解铜、铜材等产品；下游应用领域广泛，包括电力、建筑、交通、电子等行业。随着全球数字化转型和新能源产业发展，下游需求持续增长，而上游供给增 长相对缓慢，导致供需矛盾日益突出。 在这一背景下，多个相关板块值得关注： 江西铜业（600362）：中国最大的综合性铜生产企业，公司 "贵冶牌" 阴极铜早在 1996 年于 LME 一次性注册成功，是中国第一个世界性铜品牌。公司拥有 较多铜资源，截至 2024 年，铜矿资源量 1342.8 万吨，年产铜精矿含铜超过 20 万吨，阴极铜产量超过 140 万吨 / 年，年加工铜产品超过 100 万吨。 紫金矿业（601899）：是矿产铜产量位居全球前四的企业。截至 2024 年底，保有证实储量和可信储量中铜有 5043.21 万吨。2024 年矿产铜产量 107 万吨， 2025 年计划实现矿产铜 115 万吨。公司在全球拥有多个铜矿山项目，并且不断通过并购等 ...