Core Viewpoint - The industrial production in China has shown a stable and rapid growth in April 2023, driven by effective macro policies and a strong push towards high-end, intelligent, and green transformation in the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Industrial Production Growth - In April, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.1% year-on-year, marking a relatively high growth rate compared to previous months [1]. - Out of 41 major industries, 36 experienced year-on-year growth, indicating a broad-based recovery with over 80% of industries showing positive performance [1]. Group 2: Industrial Transformation and Upgrading - The trend towards high-end industrial development is evident, with high-tech manufacturing value-added increasing by 10% year-on-year in April, significantly outpacing overall industrial growth [1]. - Specific sectors such as integrated circuit manufacturing and optoelectronic device manufacturing saw substantial increases of 21.3% and 19% respectively in added value [1]. - Notable product growth includes 3D printing equipment and industrial control computers, which surged by 60.7% and 29.5% in production [1]. Group 3: New Industrial Dynamics - The shift towards intelligent and green industrial practices is accelerating, with the new energy sector performing well; production of new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries for vehicles rose by 38.9% and 61.8% respectively in April [2]. - The production of smart products is also on the rise, with intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing and smart vehicle equipment manufacturing increasing by 74.2% and 29.3% respectively [2]. - Industrial robot production saw a significant increase of 51.5% [2]. Group 4: Policy Impact - The "Two New" policies have had a noticeable impact, promoting technological upgrades and expanding market demand, which in turn supports industrial production growth [2]. - Under the influence of equipment renewal policies, production of agricultural product processing machinery and specialized packaging equipment maintained double-digit growth in April [2]. - The "old-for-new" policy has also driven rapid growth in the production of electric bicycles and LCD screens [2]. Group 5: Overall Economic Outlook - The overall industrial production has been stable and growing, supported by the continuous release of macro policy effectiveness and the stimulation of domestic demand through the "Two New" policies [3]. - The trend towards high-end, intelligent, and green development is becoming more pronounced, with new productive forces being cultivated [3]. - However, challenges remain, including low industrial product prices and operational difficulties faced by some enterprises [3].

Core Insights - The National Bureau of Statistics highlights breakthroughs in cutting-edge technology fields such as artificial intelligence large models and humanoid robots, which will further promote industrial upgrading and development [1] Group 1: Economic Growth and Innovation - There is a strong push for deep integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, enhancing the transformation of technological creativity into social productivity [1] - The role of innovation in driving economic development is continuously increasing, injecting new momentum into the economy [1] Group 2: High-tech Industry Performance - The added value of high-tech manufacturing industries above designated size grew by 10% in April, outpacing the overall industrial growth by 3.9 percentage points [1] - The added value of the intelligent unmanned aerial vehicle manufacturing industry surged by 74.2% in April [1] - The production of new energy vehicles increased by 38.9% [1] Group 3: Future Prospects - Breakthroughs in artificial intelligence large models and humanoid robots are expected to further facilitate industrial upgrading and development [1]

Group 1 - The fifth national economic census in Hainan Province shows significant growth in the number of units in the secondary and tertiary industries, leading to increased employment [1] - By the end of 2023, there were 174,000 legal entities engaged in secondary and tertiary industries, an increase of 74,000 from the end of 2018 [1] - The top three industries by the number of legal entities in the secondary and tertiary sectors are wholesale and retail (39,000), rental and business services (37,000), and construction (18,000) [1] Group 2 - The total assets of legal entities in the secondary and tertiary industries reached 88,627.4 billion yuan by the end of 2023 [2] - In 2023, the total operating income of legal entities in the secondary and tertiary industries was 34,335.8 billion yuan [2] - There were 11,761 legal entities in the core digital economy sector by the end of 2023, employing 78,284 people and generating an operating income of 2,224.8 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - By the end of 2023, there were 139 legal entities in strategic emerging industries in the scale above industrial enterprises and 290 in the scale above service enterprises [2] - The high-tech manufacturing sector had 76 legal entities, generating an operating income of 289.6 billion yuan, while the high-tech service sector had 322 legal entities with an operating income of 1,117.4 billion yuan [2]

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Government Work Report emphasizes that "consumption upgrade leads to industrial upgrade," highlighting the importance of both consumption and industrial upgrades as key drivers of economic development [1] Group 1: Consumption Upgrade - Recent trends show continuous adjustments in China's consumption structure, quality requirements, modes, and concepts [2] - In 2024, the proportion of service consumption in residents' per capita consumption expenditure reached 46.1% [2] - Consumers are increasingly demanding higher quality, functionality, brand, and experience from products, shifting from basic functions to more comprehensive needs [2] - The consumption model is transitioning from offline dominance to an integrated online and offline approach, with innovative consumption scenarios gaining popularity [2] - Consumer attitudes are evolving towards a preference for smart, energy-efficient, and health-oriented products, reflecting a shift from "no change unless broken" to "seeking quality and novelty" [2] Group 2: Industrial Upgrade Driven by Consumption - Demand is the strongest market driver, with consumption representing the ultimate demand that reflects people's needs for a better life [3] - Changes in consumer demand signals will gradually influence production, prompting companies to adjust supply structures and enhance technological innovation [3] - Consumption-led industrial upgrades focus on directly addressing final demand, leading to clearer and more efficient upgrade goals [3] Group 3: Key Directions for Industrial Upgrade - Three key areas for industrial upgrade driven by consumption include: 1. Intelligent development of industries, with increased demand for smart products driving high-tech manufacturing [4] 2. Green development, where the growth of green consumption accelerates the transition to green production methods and promotes the development of green industries [4] 3. Integrated development, requiring cross-industry collaboration to meet diverse consumer needs through new technologies and consumption models [4] Group 4: Conditions for Successful Upgrade - China possesses favorable conditions for consumption upgrade to lead industrial upgrade, emphasizing the need for simultaneous efforts on both supply and demand sides [5] - Enhancing residents' consumption capacity and ensuring sustainable consumption upgrade are prerequisites for industrial upgrade [5] - A supportive environment is essential for achieving a virtuous cycle between consumption and industrial upgrades, including improving consumption infrastructure and reducing market entry barriers [5]

Manufacturing Sector Insights - In April 2025, the Manufacturing PMI index dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity[2] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, down 2.6 percentage points, while the new export orders index significantly declined by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level since January 2023[2][6] - The production index decreased to 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points, and the purchasing index fell to 46.3%, a drop of 5.5 percentage points, marking the lowest level since January 2023[2][7] Price and Demand Trends - The manufacturing price index continued to decline, with major raw material purchase prices and factory prices dropping by 2.8 and 3.1 percentage points, respectively[3][10] - The decline in factory prices was more pronounced than that of raw material purchase prices, suggesting a stronger impact of demand on manufacturing market prices[3][10] - In specific sectors, the export orders index for electrical machinery, general equipment, and specialized equipment saw declines exceeding 10%[3][10] Economic Policy and Future Outlook - The Politburo meeting on April 25 emphasized increasing investment to stimulate domestic demand, with a focus on major strategic projects expected to receive enhanced funding support[4][11] - The real estate investment sector is anticipated to stabilize gradually, supported by increased supply of high-quality housing[4][11] - The non-manufacturing PMI index fell to 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points, but remained in the expansion zone, with new orders index at 44.9%, down 1.7 percentage points[5][13]

Manufacturing PMI Insights - In April 2025, China's manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.0%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points from March, marking the largest decline in nearly two years[2][3] - The decline is attributed to two main factors: a significant change in the external environment due to increased tariffs from the U.S. and seasonal factors, as April typically sees a decrease in manufacturing activity compared to March[3] - New export orders index fell sharply by 4.3 percentage points to 44.7%, the lowest level in 28 months, primarily due to high tariffs impacting orders from the U.S.[4] Economic Indicators - The production index for April was 49.8%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting weakened market demand[4] - The main raw materials purchasing price index decreased by 2.8 percentage points to 47.0%, while the factory price index fell by 3.1 percentage points to 44.3%, indicating significant contraction in both indices[4] - High-tech manufacturing PMI remained in the expansion zone at 51.5%, despite a 0.8 percentage point decline, showcasing resilience amid market challenges[5][6] Future Outlook - The construction PMI for April was 51.9%, down 1.5 percentage points, influenced by a slowdown in real estate investment; however, civil engineering activity index rose to 60.9%, indicating potential for increased infrastructure investment[6] - The central government's recent policy directives emphasize stronger counter-cyclical measures and proactive macroeconomic policies, suggesting a focus on boosting domestic demand and infrastructure investment[7] - It is anticipated that the manufacturing PMI may remain in contraction territory in May but could rebound to around 49.5% due to the implementation of growth-stimulating policies[7]

Economic Overview - In Q1 2025, Liaoning's GDP reached 760.69 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 5.2% and rising from 18th to 16th in national rankings [1][3] - The province's economic growth is driven by industrial and consumer sectors, with the secondary industry increasing by 5.4% and high-tech manufacturing growing by 10.9% [2][3] Investment and Consumption - Fixed asset investment in Liaoning grew by 7.8%, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.7%, and exports rose by 10.5%, all surpassing national averages [3] - Manufacturing investment rose by 13.2%, accounting for 26.7% of total investment, with significant growth in aerospace and electronic equipment manufacturing [4] - Consumer spending was boosted by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, with notable increases in retail sales of new energy vehicles (22.5%) and smart wearable devices (13.1%) [4] Trade Performance - Liaoning's exports reached a record 95.11 billion yuan in Q1, growing by 10.5%, supported by a strong performance from private enterprises [5][6] - The province's trade with Belt and Road countries amounted to 102.65 billion yuan, marking a 5.9% increase, with significant growth in exports to ASEAN and Saudi Arabia [7] City Contributions - Shenyang and Dalian are key economic drivers, with Dalian's GDP at 228.03 billion yuan (6.2% growth) and Shenyang's at 212.18 billion yuan (4.6% growth) [8][11] - Dalian's industrial output increased by 10.9%, with strong growth in equipment manufacturing and high-tech sectors [9] - Shenyang's growth was bolstered by a significant increase in the cultural and tourism sectors, with revenues from cultural and entertainment industries rising by 19% [12][13]

Economic Overview - As of April 25, all 31 provinces have released their Q1 reports, with 21 provinces achieving growth rates that either surpassed or matched the national level [1] - The GDP of the top ten provinces reached 19.5 trillion yuan, accounting for over 60% of the national economy [2] Provincial Performance - Guangdong and Jiangsu both exceeded 3.3 trillion yuan in GDP, with Guangdong at 33,525.51 billion yuan and Jiangsu at 33,088.6 billion yuan, narrowing the gap [2] - Tibet led the growth rate at 7.9%, while Hubei achieved a 6.3% growth, marking its highest rate in nearly 12 quarters [3] Industrial Growth - All provinces reported positive growth in industrial output, with several provinces like Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangsu, and Shandong exceeding 8% growth [4] - New energy industries showed significant growth, with Guangdong's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing increasing by 5.9% and 5.3% respectively [4] Consumption and Investment - The government has emphasized boosting consumption and investment efficiency, with policies aimed at expanding domestic demand [5] - Major projects have shown a clear impact, with significant investment growth in provinces like Henan and Yunnan [6] Future Outlook - Provinces are focusing on high-quality development and addressing current economic challenges through targeted policies [7] - The emphasis is on stabilizing demand and optimizing supply, with a focus on innovation and improving public services [8]

Economic Overview - In the first quarter of 2025, GDP growth exceeded market expectations, with 19 provinces surpassing the national growth rate of 5.4%, indicating a stable growth trajectory across most regions [1][2] - The economic performance of major provinces like Guangdong and Jiangsu, which are part of the "3 trillion club," plays a crucial role in stabilizing employment and growth nationally, accounting for nearly 30% of the national GDP [2][3] Regional Performance - The top three provinces by GDP in Q1 2025 are Guangdong (33,525.51 billion), Jiangsu (33,088.6 billion), and Shandong (23,466 billion), with several other provinces also exceeding the billion scale in GDP [2] - Fast-growing provinces such as Tibet, Hubei, Gansu, and Anhui are supported by emerging industries, including new energy vehicles and infrastructure projects [3] Industrial Growth - High-tech, digital, and green economies are driving growth, with Guangdong's advanced manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors seeing increases of 5.9% and 5.3% respectively [4] - The production of high-tech products, including new energy vehicles and lithium-ion batteries, has seen significant growth, with increases of 29.9% and 83.5% respectively [4] Consumer Market Dynamics - The "trade-in" policy and the Spring Festival holiday have stimulated consumer markets, with Jiangsu reporting significant retail growth in various categories, such as a 51.4% increase in cultural and office supplies [5] - Shandong's retail sales grew by 5.6%, benefiting from the "trade-in" policy, which generated over 31 billion in consumption [5] Trade and Export - Gansu's foreign trade saw a remarkable increase of 49.4%, with exports of electric vehicles and photovoltaic products rising significantly [5] - Shandong's foreign trade reached 820.34 billion, a 5.9% increase, marking the highest level for the same period historically [5] Policy Initiatives - Various provinces are actively implementing measures to boost domestic demand, including consumer promotion plans and accelerating major industrial projects [7][8] - The focus is on enhancing consumption and upgrading traditional industries to release consumer potential and support high-quality economic development [7][8]

| 消费增长的量价拆解——月度宏观经济回 | 2025-04-28 | | --- | --- | | 顾与展望 | | | 积极迎战外部风险——4 月政治局会议解 | 2025-04-26 | | 读 | | 外贸冲击的衍生影响开始显现——4 月 PMI 点评 研究结论 事件：4 月 30 日统计局公布最新 PMI，其中制造业 PMI 录得 49.0%，较上月下降 1.5 个百分点；非制造业 PMI 录得 50.4%，保持在荣枯线以上。 风险提示 宏观经济 | 动态跟踪 报告发布日期 2025 年 05 月 03 日 | 陈至奕 | 021-63325888*6044 | | --- | --- | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | 孙金霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号：S0860515070001 | | 曹靖楠 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan ...