Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange's state-owned enterprise ETF (159519) rose over 0.8%, driven by the appreciation of the Renminbi and profit expectations [1] Group 1: Market Trends - By 2026, the capital market is expected to feature a dual focus on "technological innovation + dividend assets" [1] - In terms of technological innovation, artificial intelligence and smart manufacturing are identified as core themes, with the "14th Five-Year Plan" elevating "AI+" to a national strategy, predicting that the smart economy will become a significant growth driver by 2030 [1] - The PB valuation of technology sectors such as electronics, communications, and computers has reached historical highs, indicating strong market pricing for cutting-edge technologies [1] Group 2: Dividend Assets - The cash dividends for the SSE 50 and CSI 300 constituent stocks are projected to reach CNY 10,116 billion and CNY 18,192 billion in 2024, respectively, with dividend payout ratios exceeding 40% [1] - The trend of high dividends is expected to continue under policy guidance [1] Group 3: Traditional Industry Upgrades - Traditional industries such as mining, metallurgy, chemicals, and machinery are anticipated to strengthen their global competitiveness, with an expected market space increase of CNY 10 trillion over the next five years [1] - The chemical industry has shown signs of profit improvement, with a ROE of 7.47% [1] Group 4: Defense and Infrastructure - The military industry is poised for growth due to accelerated national defense modernization, with a projected 7.2% year-on-year increase in the defense budget by 2025 [1] - The commercial aerospace market is expected to exceed CNY 2.3 trillion in scale [1] - The power grid equipment sector will benefit from the construction of new power systems, with average annual investments expected to increase during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period [1]

证券研究报告：电力设备|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 10088.23 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 10950.05 | | 52 | 周最低 | 6107.84 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 -14% -7% 0% 7% 14% 21% 28% 35% 42% 49% 电力设备 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:苏千叶 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110004 Email:suqianye@cnpsec.com 分析师:杨帅波 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070002 Email:yangshuaibo@cnpsec.com 分析师:盛炜 SAC 登记编号:S1340525120008 Email:shengwei@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《国家发改委修定输配电成本监审和 定价办法，我们预计明年整体进入过渡 期——适应"拍卖"机制》- 2025.12.01 电网投资进一步加 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market indices collectively rose on January 5, marking a positive start to the year, with the only electric grid equipment ETF (159326) increasing by 1.62% and achieving a trading volume of 402 million yuan [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly released guidelines to promote high-quality development of the electric grid, aiming for enhanced resource optimization by 2030, with "West-to-East Power Transmission" capacity exceeding 420 million kilowatts and supporting renewable energy generation to reach 30% of total generation [1] - Huatai Securities forecasts that electric grid investment during the 14th Five-Year Plan period is expected to exceed 4 trillion yuan, a significant increase from 2.8 trillion yuan during the 13th Five-Year Plan, with a focus on main grid construction to support a unified national electricity market [1] Group 2 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the China Securities Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as power transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation equipment, and distribution equipment [2] - The smart grid has a weight of 88% in the index, while ultra-high voltage equipment accounts for 65%, both being the highest in the market [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market in December 2025 shows a significant characteristic of "sector concentration and stock differentiation," with high elasticity opportunities concentrated in policy-sensitive sectors and clearly defined industrial trends [1][7]. Group 1: Market Trends and Predictions - The strongest structural directions are from non-ferrous metals, military industry, and price increases, driven by supply-demand gaps and policy-driven market rallies [1][7]. - The National Space Administration's release of the "Action Plan for Promoting High-Quality Development of Commercial Aerospace" and the establishment of the Human Robot Standardization Committee by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have directly boosted the aerospace, defense, and robotics sectors [1][7]. - Looking ahead to January 2026, the market may refocus on performance and liquidity improvements, with expectations for a stable start to the domestic economy despite current weak demand [1][7]. Group 2: Key Upcoming Events - The Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on January 23 is crucial, as the previous meeting raised the benchmark rate to 0.75%, the highest in 30 years, indicating a clear policy direction [2][8]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 28 is anticipated to maintain the current rate, with expectations for a new chairperson to emerge, potentially influencing global capital markets [3][8]. - By January 31, A-share listed companies must release performance forecasts for 2025, which may impact market pricing based on industry performance [3][8]. Group 3: Investment Focus Areas - In January, the importance of performance realization increases, with a focus on core technology and manufacturing sectors, particularly in overseas computing power, storage, consumer electronics, and wind energy storage [4][8]. - There is potential for rotation into low-position innovative drugs and gaming sectors, which may see fundamental improvements in Q1 [4][8]. - The global manufacturing sector is expected to resonate in 2026, benefiting from fiscal and monetary easing, with a focus on manufacturing in the export chain and related sectors such as real estate and automotive [9].

Group 1 - The chief strategist of Guojin Securities, Miao Yiling, predicts that the ROE of the non-financial real estate sector in A-shares will increase from 7.2% to 7.9% by 2026, indicating a shift from a "low return" phase to a higher profitability rhythm [1] - Miao suggests four main investment lines: industrial resource products, equipment exports, consumer recovery, and non-bank financials, with a focus on tracking the demand for aluminum, copper, steel, and coal driven by power system construction [1] - In overseas markets, the U.S. and Europe are experiencing characteristics such as "investment exceeding consumption," profit differentiation among large and small enterprises, declining employment, and slowing wage growth, which provide a foundation for a sustained interest rate cut cycle [1] Group 2 - On the domestic consumption front, the drag of housing prices on household spending has diminished, with an increase in foreign tourists due to trade settlement rate recovery and visa-free entry, leading to improved net profit margins in sectors like aviation, hotels, duty-free, and food and beverage [2] - Financially, there is a shift of household savings towards "fixed income+" products, with pension and insurance funds continuously increasing their equity allocations; policy adjustments to lower insurance risk factors and relax brokerage leverage will resonate with the non-bank sector and ROE recovery [2]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the power equipment sector, highlighting a structural differentiation in the market with a focus on the main grid and overseas expansion [2][3]. Core Insights - The domestic market for power grid equipment is projected to exceed 2 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 15%. The market is segmented into three main areas: internal grid (approximately 823 billion yuan, +9% YoY), external grid (approximately 580 billion yuan, +19% YoY), and overseas markets (approximately 665 billion yuan, +20% YoY) [2][18]. - The report emphasizes the importance of transformers, particularly in the context of the North American market, where there is a significant supply-demand mismatch. The expected supply gap for power transformers in the U.S. by 2025 is projected to be 30% [3][25]. - Solid-state transformers (SST) are highlighted as a disruptive technology with a potential commercial breakthrough expected around 2027, driven by their efficiency and adaptability to high-density computing environments [4][12]. Summary by Sections Investment Framework - The power equipment sector is categorized into six main business types, including smart systems, high-voltage equipment, medium and low-voltage equipment, metering devices, materials, and low-voltage electrical appliances [13][14]. - The report outlines a structural differentiation in the market, with a focus on the main grid and overseas expansion as key growth areas [18][23]. Market Demand and Trends - The report forecasts that the internal market (State Grid and Southern Grid) will reach approximately 835 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 9% YoY. The demand for high-voltage transformers and related equipment is expected to remain strong due to ongoing infrastructure investments [22][25]. - The external market, particularly in renewable energy sectors, is anticipated to grow significantly, with wind power installations expected to increase by 51% YoY in 2025 [22][26]. Detailed Market Tracking - The report provides a detailed analysis of ten sub-markets, indicating that the main grid and overseas markets are expected to maintain high levels of activity. The State Grid's investment in transmission and transformation equipment is projected to grow by 26% YoY, with significant contributions from leading companies [24][25]. - The report also notes a recovery in the distribution network segment, with price adjustments expected to enhance profitability starting in 2026 [25][26].

Group 1 - The report highlights that global risk assets have maintained a steady upward trend in a low volatility environment, while commodity prices have risen alongside increased volatility. The Hong Kong stock market has shown particularly strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rising by 2.76% and 4% respectively on the first trading day of 2026, driven by a rebound from previous stagnation and industry catalysts [2][12] - The report notes that the current value of industrial metals relative to US financial assets and broad money supply is at a 20-year low, indicating that physical assets are undervalued. The report anticipates that low inventory levels combined with monetary easing will amplify asset price fluctuations in the future [2][16] - The report suggests that the investment strategy should focus on maintaining a long position in the medium to long term, with opportunities arising after the volatility of popular commodities decreases [2][16] Group 2 - The manufacturing PMI for December exceeded market expectations, rising to 50.1%, indicating a positive shift in the economic fundamentals. Key highlights include a seasonal rebound in production, procurement, and business expectations, along with a rise in inventory indices [3][31] - The report discusses the implementation of new policies aimed at expanding domestic demand, including a "trade-in" policy for consumer goods and an investment plan totaling approximately 295 billion yuan to stabilize investment. These measures are expected to smooth out fluctuations in domestic demand in 2026 [3][31] - Export orders have shown signs of recovery, with significant increases in container throughput at ports and improved export growth rates in South Korea and Vietnam, indicating that exports remain a crucial component of the economic recovery [3][35] Group 3 - The report indicates that the "spring rally" may have already begun, with historical data suggesting a correlation between December and January market performances. The current market sentiment is optimistic, with a focus on the recovery of global manufacturing activities and their impact on Chinese assets [4][41] - The report emphasizes that the internal driving logic of the market is changing, with domestic economic data exceeding expectations and early policy implementations acting as new catalysts. It recommends focusing on assets with clearer fundamental signals and lower volatility for better investment outcomes [5][54] - The report identifies several sectors for investment, including industrial resource products that resonate with AI investments and global manufacturing recovery, as well as sectors benefiting from domestic consumption recovery and capital market expansion [5][54]

Group 1: Core Insights - The global energy storage installation demand is expected to maintain high growth, with a significant increase in demand from AI computing centers contributing to this trend [1][5] - The lithium carbonate price has bottomed out and is recovering, leading to an end of negative feedback effects in the supply chain, which will significantly improve corporate profitability [1][5] Group 2: Photovoltaics - The photovoltaic industry is expected to see a bottoming out in its fundamentals in 2025, with marginal improvements in supply-demand mismatches and stabilization in industry chain prices [2] - Global photovoltaic installations are projected to face short-term pressure, with a potential year-on-year decline in new markets in China, the US, and Europe, while new markets in regions like the Middle East and South Asia are expected to grow rapidly [2] Group 3: Wind Power - The domestic wind power sector is anticipated to experience significant installation growth in 2025, reflecting high demand from previous years' bidding [3] - The profitability of listed companies in the wind power sector is expected to improve as high demand translates into better financial performance [3] Group 4: Power Grid Equipment - Global investment in power grids is expected to continue growing to accommodate the increasing share of wind and solar power generation [4] - The aging infrastructure in developed economies necessitates urgent upgrades, which will benefit domestic power grid equipment companies [4] Group 5: Energy Storage - The energy storage sector is projected to see explosive growth in 2025, with a significant increase in demand from large-scale storage in China, the US, and Europe [5] - By 2026, global energy storage installations are expected to reach 417 GWh, representing a 51% year-on-year increase [5]

Group 1 - The stock price of Shenghui Technology (300423) closed at 8.38 yuan on December 31, 2025, down 6.37% from 8.95 yuan the previous week, with a market cap of 4.169 billion yuan [1] - The company is ranked 91st out of 123 in the power grid equipment sector and 3831st out of 5181 in the A-share market [1] Group 2 - Shenghui Technology plans to acquire 85% of Hep Energy Environmental Technology Co., Ltd. through a share issuance and raise supporting funds, constituting a major asset restructuring and related party transaction [2] - As of December 30, 2025, the audit, evaluation, and due diligence of the target assets are still in progress, with no significant issues found that would halt or change the transaction [2] - The transaction requires approval from the board of directors, the shareholders' meeting, and review by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange and registration with the CSRC [2] Group 3 - On December 30, 2025, the company held a staff representative meeting to elect Zhang Xiaoyan as the employee representative director of the fifth board of directors [3] - Director Liu Shanshi resigned from his position due to adjustments in the company's governance structure and will not hold any position after leaving [3] - Vice President Cui Jing resigned from her role but will continue to serve as a director [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market is expected to experience an early "spring rally" starting in mid-December 2025, potentially leading to a rare overlap of "cross-year" and "spring" trends due to late Chinese New Year and intensified institutional competition [1][3] - Historical data shows that the average spring rally over the past decade has yielded a 6.5% increase, but the 2026 rally may differ as structural opportunities emerge despite a generally flat index performance in four out of the last seven years [1][3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission has introduced significant reforms, including a public fund fee reduction that benefits investors by 51 billion yuan annually, and a push for long-term capital inflow, which aims to reshape the market ecosystem [3] Group 2 - The consensus among brokerages for 2026 investment strategies highlights technology and domestic consumption as key themes, with specific focus on AI applications, commercial aerospace, and humanoid robots benefiting from policy support [5] - The domestic consumption sector is targeted for investment due to stagnant valuations and rising policy expectations, with sectors like liquor, duty-free, and tourism identified as core holdings [5] - External factors are favorable, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts expected to enhance liquidity globally, benefiting emerging market assets, particularly in sectors like aviation and paper manufacturing that have foreign currency liabilities [5] Group 3 - Recent market performance indicates strong potential in specific sectors, such as AI applications in media and gaming, driven by cost reduction and efficiency improvements [7] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are positioned to benefit from global manufacturing recovery and domestic supply adjustments, making them attractive for both growth and defensive strategies [7] - Despite high expectations for the spring rally, there is a cautionary note regarding structural differentiation in the market, with potential corrections in overvalued tech sectors if earnings do not meet high expectations [7]