Group 1 - The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will enter its mandatory phase on January 1, 2026, marking the world's first cross-border carbon tax system [1] - CBAM aims to price the "embedded carbon" in imported goods, ensuring that non-EU producers bear the same carbon costs as EU companies [1] - Importers of six high-energy-consuming product categories, including steel, cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, must report carbon emissions quarterly and purchase CBAM certificates based on the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) auction prices [1] Group 2 - During the transition period, which began in October 2023, importers are not required to purchase CBAM certificates but must fulfill basic carbon emission reporting obligations [2] - As the implementation date approaches, companies, especially in the steel and aluminum sectors, are preparing for the new requirements, which include providing comprehensive carbon emission data [2] - The EU plans to extend CBAM coverage to downstream products, including 180 new categories such as machinery and household appliances, further broadening its impact [3] Group 3 - The Chinese Ministry of Ecology and Environment is actively monitoring the developments of the EU CBAM and will guide companies in adapting to the new regulations [4] - China is expanding its national carbon emissions trading market, with plans to include the steel industry in 2025, which will help align with international carbon pricing mechanisms [4] - Although the actual procurement and submission of CBAM certificates will be delayed until February 2027, companies must still account for these costs in their 2026 business decisions [5]

从伦敦金属交易所（LME）最新交易数据来看，铝价期货，已经突破2880美元/吨这个关口，正加快朝 着3000美元的高位冲击，华尔街的那些，交易员还在留意着英伟达的GPU出货量，却忽视了更为基本的 实体制裁。 并不是，美国的铝，产能被自家的AI泡沫挤出了电网，这就是产业链的零和博弈，当你想要同时保持 高端算力以及基础制造的时候，脆弱的电网负荷，就是第一个倒下的多米诺骨牌。 特朗普政府想要用50%的关税壁垒来，保护本国铝业，可是却是自己把自己弄进了困境，2025年7月， 美国未锻轧铝的进口量，一下子猛降到30.3万吨，关税没有让本国产能得到恢复，反倒切断了外部的供 应途径，让库存水平跌到了历史最低值。 那个被众多人忽略的数字，4500万吨，才是真正厉害的手段，中国所制定的电解铝产能，上限就是这 个，这条红线传递的含义是，不管全球价格多么疯狂地上涨，中国都不会随就去扩大产能来填补西方的 缺口。 这次并非是芯片禁运，而是物理世界出现了反作用，当美国为了囤积铜而把大宗商品价格抬高的时候， 回旋镖就精准地砸向铝的供应链，这并不只是简单的周期波动，这是全球工业针对美国再工业化野心的 一次断供预演。 铝不是一般金属，它乃是固 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gansu Dingxi City is transforming its agricultural economy by implementing a dual approach of strengthening traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors, leading to significant industrial growth and investment attraction. Group 1: Industrial Growth and Investment - Dingxi has increased its number of industrial enterprises to 295, up by 177 since 2020, with an average annual industrial value-added growth of 16% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [1] - The city has seen an increase in external investment from 206.86 billion yuan in 2020 to 730.82 billion yuan in 2024, with an annual growth rate of 37.1% [3] - The establishment of 12 specialized teams for industrial chain investment has contributed to the influx of major companies like Guangyao Group and Sany Heavy Energy [3] Group 2: Policy Support and Financial Investment - Dingxi High-strength Fasteners Co., Ltd. has received over 10 million yuan in various policy funds since the 14th Five-Year Plan, which has been invested in R&D and modernization [2] - The city has implemented policies such as stable employment subsidies and technology transformation rewards to support local enterprises [2] Group 3: Agricultural Transformation - The agricultural sector is being restructured through industrialization and clustering, with companies like Gansu Fuzheng Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. establishing standardized planting bases and connecting with thousands of local farmers [4][5] - The potato industry has seen significant growth, with companies like Gansu Blue Sky Potato Industry Development Co., Ltd. creating a closed-loop ecosystem that includes supply chain finance and product diversification [6][7] Group 4: New Energy and Digital Transformation - Gansu Dongxing Jiaxin New Materials Co., Ltd. is focusing on a green and integrated aluminum industry chain, achieving significant energy savings and CO2 reduction [8] - The integration of digital technology in traditional industries has led to a 25% increase in production efficiency, with 100% of large-scale enterprises participating in digital transformation [8] Group 5: Future Development Strategy - Dingxi aims to establish itself as a distinctive industrial hub in the Longzhong region, focusing on resilience, innovation, structural optimization, and low-carbon transformation as part of its development strategy [9]

2025年12月，伦敦金属交易所传来消息，铝价突破2890美元/吨，创下三年新高。与此同时，美国国内 铝库存降至历史低位，多家制造企业陷入停工困境。这个反转剧情的源头，要追溯到美国去年囤积的40 万吨铜。 本想通过控制铜资源打压中国制造业，没想到搬起石头砸了自己的脚。这场失算背后，到底发生了什 么？ 为何铝成全球产业升级"硬通货" 铝价的持续飙升并非短期炒作，而是全球产业转型催生的刚性需求所致。在能源转型和数字化浪潮下， 传统工业金属的需求结构正在重构，铝凭借轻量化、导电性强、耐腐蚀等综合优势，成为承接新兴产业 需求的核心载体。 全球年铝消耗量已超7700万吨，远超铜的2750万吨左右，成为工业领域用量仅次于钢铁的金属。新能 源、数字经济等新兴产业的爆发，更是让铝的战略价值从传统工业辅助材料，升级为高端制造的关键支 撑。 新能源领域是铝需求的核心引擎。电动汽车的用铝规模较传统燃油车提升42%，车身轻量化、电池托 盘、散热模块等关键部件均依赖铝材；储能领域更甚，每建成100GWh储能电站，需消耗16万吨铝材支 撑电池组及配套设施。 AI数字经济的崛起进一步放大需求。数据中心内海量服务器运转产生的高温，需靠铝制散 ...

02 多空焦点 02 多空焦点 03 数据分析 03 数据分析 铝产业链周度报告 范玲 期货从业资格号：F0272984 投资咨询资格号：Z0011970 中航期货 2025-12-19 目录 01 报告摘要 01 报告摘要 04 后市研判 04 后市研判 | 摘 | 报 | 告 | 要 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the alumina market is experiencing price fluctuations, with the main contract for alumina futures showing a decline due to various market pressures [1][2] - As of December 19, the main alumina futures contract (2601) closed at 2500 yuan, down 72 yuan or 2.8%, with a total trading volume of 450,396 contracts, a decrease of 102,839 contracts or 18.59% from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic spot prices for alumina have also decreased, with prices in different regions showing slight declines, indicating a bearish trend in the market [1] Group 2 - On a macroeconomic level, the weak inflation data from the US has led to expectations of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, which initially boosted market sentiment and metal demand [2] - However, concerns over the accuracy of the data due to potential government shutdowns have created uncertainty, contributing to a stronger dollar index and increased short pressure on alumina futures [2] - Despite some production cuts from alumina plants, the overall supply remains excessive, with stable shipments from bauxite mines in Guinea and Australia, which are expected to support future bauxite arrivals [2]

Core Viewpoint - The casting aluminum market is experiencing a mixed performance due to supply and demand dynamics, with prices supported by high costs and limited supply, while demand remains inconsistent [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Trends - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2602) closed at 21,235 CNY, up 115 CNY, with a trading volume of 4,335 lots, a decrease of 297 lots, and an open interest of 17,216 lots, an increase of 26 lots [1]. - The average price for various casting aluminum alloys has increased by 100 CNY, with A356.2 at 23,200 CNY/ton, A380 at 22,800 CNY/ton, ADC12 at 21,600 CNY/ton, ZL102 at 22,600 CNY/ton, and ZLD104 at 22,500 CNY/ton [1]. Group 2: Market Analysis - The macroeconomic environment shows a decrease in inflation pressure, with the U.S. consumer price index rising by 2.7% year-on-year in November, below the expected 3.1%, which has improved market sentiment [1]. - Despite the positive sentiment, the strong U.S. dollar has countered some of the bullish effects, leading to price fluctuations in the casting aluminum market [1]. - The casting aluminum supply and demand are both experiencing reductions, with high aluminum alloy prices and limited production capacity due to losses in the smelting sector [2]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for casting aluminum is inconsistent, with some support from the automotive sector, but overall market activity remains subdued due to delivery pressures [2]. - Sellers are reluctant to lower prices, which further suppresses the willingness of downstream buyers to replenish stocks, affecting overall market activity [2]. - The price performance of casting aluminum is primarily supported by high costs of scrap aluminum, and it is expected to maintain a high-level oscillation in the future [3].

国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约早盘横盘震荡，午后强势拉涨；开盘价报21965元/吨，盘中最高 22240元/吨，最低21910元/吨，昨日结算21990元/吨，尾盘收至22185元/吨，涨195元，涨幅0.89%；沪 铝主力月2602合约全天成交量225615手增加37171手，持仓量315093手增加20928手。 CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝震荡上行，LME三个月北京时间14：54报于2925美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨8美元/吨，涨幅0.27%。 基本面方面，国内电解铝运行产能整体变动不大，因已达产能上限，供应难有显著增量。需求端，进入 消费淡季，下游消费整体趋弱，本周国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比下降0.3个百分点至 61.5%，延续淡季偏弱运行态势。受淡季氛围浓厚及铝价高企影响，短期内开工率维持低位震荡。不 过，下游年底赶工态势明显，汽车、电子等行业消费有韧性，且铝锭社库处于低位。截至12月18日，中 国主要市场电解铝库存为56.1万吨，较本周一减少1.6万吨，铝价底部支撑仍存。但后市预期不佳，叠加 年底回笼资金需求，市场压力增大，出现踩踏甩卖现象。不过，周末前下游补货节奏稳定、采购力 ...

伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月16日伦铝最新库存量报519600公吨，较上个交易日持平。 长江铝业网讯：12月16日现货铝价，长江现货A00铝锭价报21630元/吨，跌80元；广东现货A00铝锭价 报21520元/吨，跌60元。 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部最新数据显示，11月美国非农就业增长超预期，但失业率升至4.6%，且新 增岗位主要集中在医疗保健等非周期性行业。行业分析师认为，报告内部分化，显示经济周期性动能仍 有限，市场预计美联储短期内或对进一步降息持谨慎态度。不过，美元指数破位下跌0.11%至98.15附 近，触及两个月新低，对以美元计价的铝金属商品形成支撑。国内方面，12月10日至11日召开的中央经 济工作会议备受关注。会议明确将扩大内需列为明年首要任务，提振了市场情绪，多头士气回升，对铝 价构成利好。 长江铝价alu.ccmn.cn短评：美指破位下挫至两个月新低，隔夜伦铝一枝独秀涨0.26%；沪铝供应平稳、 铝锭社库持续去化提供支撑，新能源消费有韧性、下游刚需成交，但现货贴水压制，今现铝或难大涨。 【铝期货市场】：美股全线下挫但美指走软提供支撑，隔夜伦铝一枝独秀，盘中维持偏强运行姿态，最 新收盘报价 ...

CCMN国际市场：今日伦铝冲高回落，LME三个月北京时间14：56报于2883美元/吨，较上一交易日结 算价涨0.5美元/吨，涨幅0.02%。 国内期货：今日沪铝主力月2602合约强势反弹震荡；开盘价报21845元/吨，盘中最高22020元/吨，最低 21810元/吨，昨日结算21795元/吨，尾盘收至21915元/吨，涨120元，涨幅0.55%；沪铝主力月2602合约 全天成交量184098手减少57826手，持仓量293990手增加5157手。 CCMN现货市场评述：今日长江现货成交价格21730-21770元/吨，涨120元，贴水125-贴水85，跌5元； 广东现货21625-21675元/吨，涨130元，贴水230-贴水180，涨5元；上海地区21720-21760元/吨，涨120 元，贴水135-贴水95，跌5元。 宏观层面，周二美国劳工部公布最新数据，11月美国非农就业人数增加6.4万人，高于预期的5万人；但 失业率同步升至4.6%，创2021年9月以来新高。这一数据变化增加了美联储未来降息的可能性，为铝价 提供了一定支撑。此外，今日美国科技股回涨，国内A股三大指数集体反弹，新能源板块表现亮眼，获 ...