王文帅表示，当月欧盟发起多项反补贴和反倾销调查，取代了美国连续16个月占据的全球经贸摩擦措施 涉及金额最多的榜首位置。 从行业指数看，监测范围内13个主要行业中，经贸摩擦措施的冲突点聚焦于电子、医药和化工行业，其 中电子行业经贸摩擦指数居首。 中新网1月28日电中国贸促会于1月28日举办新闻发布会，公布了2025年11月份全球经贸摩擦指数，数据 显示，2025年11月份的全球经贸摩擦指数继续处于高位。 中国贸促会新闻发言人王文帅介绍，从综合指数看，11月份全球经贸摩擦指数为101，处于高位。全球 经贸摩擦措施涉及金额同比增长7.2%，环比下降2.0%。从国别指数看，监测范围内的20个国家(地区) 中，欧盟、美国和韩国的全球经贸摩擦指数位居前三。 从分项指数看，监测范围内的20个国家(地区)共发布30项进出口关税措施，发起19起贸易救济调查，向 WTO提交技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)通报和卫生与植物卫生措施(SPS)通报152项，发布进出口限制措施12 项，发布其他限制性措施212项。其中，贸易救济措施指数在五类分项措施指数中居首位。 在涉华经贸摩擦方面，19个国家(地区)涉华经贸摩擦指数为101，处于高位。其中， ...

Core Viewpoint - Several A-share companies have announced optimistic earnings forecasts for 2025, with notable increases in net profits driven by rising prices in the non-ferrous metals sector [1][3]. Group 1: Company Earnings Forecasts - Ningbo Fubang (600768.SH) expects a net profit increase of 3099.59% to between 4379.43 million yuan and 5000 million yuan for 2025, attributed to rising silver prices and a significant gain from the sale of a stake in Ningbo Zhonghua Paper Industry [2][3]. - Yiqiu Resources (601388.SH) anticipates a net profit increase of 620% to 970%, with expected profits ranging from 13354.95 million yuan to 19854.95 million yuan, benefiting from lower raw material costs and increased sales prices due to global commodity price hikes [3][4]. - A total of 6 A-share companies are projected to have net profits increase by over 10 times in 2025, excluding ST and delisted stocks [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Insights - Among the companies that have released earnings forecasts, 253 are expected to see net profit growth of over 100% in 2025, with 123 companies turning losses into profits and 130 companies projecting profit increases [4]. - The electronics sector leads with 31 companies, followed by the pharmaceutical and biological sector with 29 companies, and the machinery equipment sector with 27 companies [4]. - The non-ferrous metals sector is highlighted, with 15 companies expecting to double their net profits in 2025, including notable firms like Zhaojin Gold (000506.SZ) and Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the growth and dynamics of the PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly focusing on the demand for copper-clad laminates (CCL) driven by advancements in AI applications and the increasing need for high-speed, high-frequency materials [3][13]. Industry Overview - PCB is referred to as the "mother of electronic products," serving as a carrier for electrical connections and functional integration of electronic components. The demand for PCBs is influenced by the terminal market, showing a stable growth trend [3]. - The cost structure of PCBs reveals that copper-clad laminates account for approximately 27.30% of the total cost, making them a crucial substrate in PCB manufacturing [3]. Market Segmentation - CCL can be classified based on material and structure, with different categories suitable for various applications, including communication devices, consumer electronics, and automotive electronics [10]. - High-frequency and high-speed CCLs are emerging to meet the demands of AI applications, characterized by high signal transmission speeds (10-50 Gbps) and low loss [11]. Market Size and Growth - The global AI application CCL market is projected to reach approximately $2.4 billion by 2025, $5.8 billion by 2026, and $18.7 billion by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 18% from 2024 to 2027. The high-speed CCL market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 40%, significantly outpacing the average growth rate of the CCL market [13]. Competitive Landscape - The global CCL production capacity is primarily concentrated in Asia, with Taiwanese and Japanese companies holding significant market shares. The high-end CCL market is dominated by Taiwanese and Japanese manufacturers, while mainland Chinese companies are expected to ramp up production starting in 2026 [13]. - Key players in the CCL industry include companies like Shengyi Technology, Nan Ya Plastics, and Panasonic, each with unique strengths and market positions [17]. Recent Developments - Shengyi Technology plans to invest 4.5 billion yuan in a high-performance CCL project by 2026 [18]. - Jinan Guojiji has approved a fundraising plan to raise 1.557 billion yuan for a high-grade CCL project and R&D center [18]. - Nan Ya Plastics intends to raise up to 900 million yuan for the development of high-frequency CCLs based on AI computing power [19]. - Huazheng New Materials has recently added a high-end production line, increasing its capacity to 14 million sheets per year [19].

Performance Overview - In Q4 2025, convertible bond funds achieved a median return of 1.09%, outperforming first-level bond funds (0.6%), second-level bond funds (0.44%), and mixed bond funds (0.31%) [1] - For the entire year of 2025, the median return for convertible bond funds was 22.43%, significantly higher than first-level bond funds (2.06%), second-level bond funds (4.66%), and mixed bond funds (5.49%) [1] Fund Scale and Demand - In Q4 2025, the scale of second-level bond funds increased by 2506 billion CNY to reach 15535 billion CNY, while first-level bond funds and mixed bond funds saw decreases of 142.5 billion CNY and 7 billion CNY, respectively [1] - The net subscription for second-level bond funds in Q4 2025 was 2344 billion units, while first-level bond funds faced a net redemption of 186 billion units [19] Convertible Bond Holdings - In Q4 2025, the convertible bond holdings of first-level bond funds increased by 0.32 percentage points to 7.97%, while second-level bond funds and mixed bond funds saw declines of 1.07 and 0.88 percentage points, respectively [33] - Public funds focused on increasing holdings in bank bonds, as well as in sectors like new energy, cyclical stocks, and military-related bonds [40] Investment Strategy Insights - The demand for fixed-income plus funds is robust, with second-level bond funds becoming the primary vehicle for this demand, while first-level bond and convertible bond fund scales have marginally declined [3] - Institutions with equity allocation permissions are shifting their demand from first-level bond funds to second-level bond and mixed bond products due to the high valuation of convertible bonds [3]

报告要点 [Table_Summary] 上证指数在 2026 年开年连续上涨后进入阶段性的震荡整固期，技术上 RSI 指标从超买区回落， 正寻求 10EMA 与 21EMA 均线支撑，换手率高位回落但全 A 成交额倍数指标尚未触及历史高 点，结构上看，商业航天及 AI 应用等热点板块仍待企稳。从中长期股债性价比看，市场估值仍 有较大上行空间，资金面上，杠杆资金高度聚焦科技方向，电子、通信、军工等方向融资余额 占比已创 2015 年以来新高，风格极值接近滚动 3 个月均值，短期市场轮动或将加速，金融、 消费风格或有望迎来反弹，中长期看好"科技+资源"双主线不变。 丨证券研究报告丨 市场策略丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 降温不改暖意，慢牛行远未已——A 股的情绪与 位置（1 月 W3） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 戴清 李巍东 SAC：S0490524010002 SFC：BTR264 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 降温不改暖意，慢牛行远未已—— 2] A 股的情绪与 位置（1 月 W3） [ ...

数据显示，截至2025年12月31日，上证科创板100指数(000698)前十大权重股分别为华虹公司、东芯股 份、源杰科技、睿创微纳、中科飞测、国盾量子、百济神州、仕佳光子、复旦微电、安集科技，前十大 权重股合计占比26.21%。前三大申万一级行业及占比分别为电子（37.42%）、电力设备（14.02%）和 生物医药（13.79%）。 科创100ETF鹏华(588220)，场外联接(A：019861；C：019862；I：022845)。 截至2026年1月28日 14:43，上证科创板100指数(000698)成分股方面涨跌互现，燕东微领涨15.75%，国 盾量子上涨7.73%，聚辰股份上涨6.58%；东芯股份领跌。科创100ETF鹏华(588220)最新报价1.61元。 科创100ETF鹏华紧密跟踪上证科创板100指数，上证科创板100指数从上海证券交易所科创板中选取市 值中等且流动性较好的100只证券作为样本。上证科创板100指数与上证科创板50成份指数共同构成上证 科创板规模指数系列，反映科创板市场不同市值规模上市公司证券的整体表现。 消息面上，"十五五"规划明确扶持战略性新兴产业，八部门推动"人工智 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is on the strong performance of the non-ferrous metal sector in the A-share market, with fund managers adjusting their portfolios to include cyclical sectors like coal, oil and gas, and transportation to balance their holdings [1] - As of January 27, 2025, 1,201 A-share companies disclosed their annual performance forecasts, with 475 companies expecting positive results and 107 companies predicting a doubling of net profits year-on-year [2] - The public fund of funds (FOF) has shown a significant preference for resource-related assets, with the Huaan Gold ETF being heavily favored in the first three quarters of 2025, indicating a trend towards resource investment [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong stock market has become a key focus for public funds, with 26 new products reported in 2026, primarily targeting technology, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical sectors, and a notable net inflow of nearly 30 billion yuan into Hong Kong-themed ETFs [4] - The gold and jewelry industry is expected to undergo significant changes in 2026 due to high gold prices, leading to a shift from price competition to value competition, favoring high-quality development [5] - The private equity fund management scale reached a record high of 22.15 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, with private securities investment funds being the main contributors to new registrations [7] Group 3 - Several listed brokerages have reported positive earnings forecasts for 2025, with net profits expected to grow significantly, indicating a strong performance across the brokerage sector [8] - Over 150 companies are projected to achieve record high net profits in 2025, with the electronics industry being the largest contributor, highlighting a robust recovery in various sectors [9] - Nearly 1,250 companies have disclosed performance forecasts, with a median net profit exceeding 173 billion yuan, reflecting a nearly 100% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a strong market recovery [10] Group 4 - Insurance capital is increasingly investing in private equity funds, with China Life announcing significant investments in two funds, reflecting a trend towards diversifying asset allocation [11] - The Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security plans to expand the scale of entrusted investments for basic pension insurance funds, indicating ongoing reforms in social security systems [12] - In 2025, profits of large-scale industrial enterprises in China increased by 0.6% compared to 2024, with a notable recovery in December, particularly in the manufacturing sector [13][14]

1月28日早盘，科创板权重股高开后震荡回调截至午间收盘，科创成长指数上涨0.1%，科创200指数下跌0.6%，科创50指数、科创100指数均下跌0.7%，科创 综指下跌0.8%。 该指数污 科创200ETF易方达 IFF = = 2 跟踪上证科创板200指数 该指数由科创板中市值偏小、流动 性较好的200只股票组成,聚焦小 市值"成长潜力"科创企业,电子、 医药生物、机械设备行业合计占比 近70%,其中电子行业占比较高 截至午间 该指数润 科创综指ETF易方达 低费率 跟踪上证科创板综合指数 性较好的100只股票组成,聚焦中 小科创企业,电子、电力设备、医 药生物、计算机行业合计占比超 75%,其中电子、电力设备行业占 比较高 截至午间 该指数: 每日经济新闻 该指数由科创板全市场证券组成, 全面覆盖大、中、小盘风格,聚焦 人工智能、半导体、新能源、创新 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline, with a significant reduction of 15 billion shares in broad - based ETFs in a single day. Large - cap index is dragged down by large - order pressing on multiple weight stocks at the end of the session. Meanwhile, the CSI 500 index rebounds after filling the gap, and long opportunities in IH and IC should be continuously monitored [2]. - Enterprises' profits are recovering. In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 7.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%, reversing the three - year decline trend. In December, the profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase [1]. - A - share major indices closed up in the spot market, with sector indices mostly falling. In the futures market, the basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were all at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, while the IM position increased [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - **Macro - economy**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China was 7.4 trillion yuan, up 0.6% year - on - year. In December, the profit changed from a 13.1% decline in November to a 5.3% increase. Trump plans to raise the tariff on South Korean products from 15% to 25%. The US consumer confidence index in January dropped to 84.5, the lowest since 2014 [1]. - **Spot market**: A - share major indices closed up, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.18% to 4139.9 points and the ChiNext Index rising 0.71%. Sector indices mostly fell, with electronics, communication, and national defense and military industries leading the gains, and coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and steel industries leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan. US major indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 0.83% and the Nasdaq rising 0.91% [1]. - **Futures market**: The basis of stock index futures rebounded, and the current - month contracts were at a premium. The trading volume of stock index futures decreased, and the IM position increased [1]. Strategy - The scale of stock - type ETFs in the domestic market continues to decline. The share of broad - based ETFs decreased by 15 billion shares in a single day. Pay attention to long opportunities in IH and IC [2]. Charts - **Macro - economic charts**: Include relationships between the US dollar index, US Treasury yields, RMB exchange rate and A - share trends and styles [5][10][12][13]. - **Spot market tracking charts**: Show the daily performance of major domestic stock indices on January 27, 2026, including the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, etc. [12]. - **Stock index futures tracking charts**: Provide information on the trading volume, position, basis, and inter - period spreads of stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM [14][37][41].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights that listed companies are gradually overcoming operational difficulties and experiencing performance recovery, driven by initiatives such as "anti-involution," "quality improvement and efficiency enhancement," and "digital transformation" [1] Group 1: Performance Recovery - Nearly 1,250 companies that disclosed performance forecasts are expected to achieve a total net profit of over 173 billion yuan in 2025, with a nearly 100% increase compared to the previous year, marking the highest growth rate in the past five years [1] - The proactive disclosure of orders by listed companies aims to stabilize market expectations, boost investor confidence, and showcase growth potential, leading to a virtuous cycle of performance improvement and market confidence recovery [1] Group 2: Order-Driven Performance - Approximately 60 companies have reported increased orders, which are driving sustained growth or turning losses into profits, primarily in sectors such as electronics, machinery, power equipment, and biomedicine [3] - Among the companies benefiting from order increases, over half are expected to see net profit growth exceeding 100% in 2025, with notable examples including Tongda Co., which anticipates a net profit increase of over 610%, and Shengnuo Biotech, expecting over 280% growth [3][4] - Conversely, around 40 companies are facing revenue declines or losses due to reduced orders, with examples like Duolun Technology and Qinglong Pipe Industry reporting significant drops in revenue [4] Group 3: Market Performance of Order-Driven Companies - Companies driven by order growth have attracted significant market interest, with an average stock price increase of nearly 84% in 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [6] - Specifically, companies with expected profit increases have shown an average stock price rise of over 90% in 2025, while loss-turning companies have seen average increases of over 75% [6] Group 4: Order Fulfillment and Future Growth - As of January 27, nearly 50 companies have reported sufficient orders, indicating a solid operational foundation for the year, covering industries such as electronics, defense, power equipment, and automotive [9] - Approximately 60% of these companies are projected to achieve net profit growth or significantly reduced losses in 2025, with 16 companies expected to maintain net profit growth exceeding 10% from 2025 to 2027 [9] - Companies like Shenghong Technology and Bai'ao Intelligent are expected to see substantial net profit growth in the coming years due to their strong order backlogs [9][10]