市场概述 上周五：英伟达反弹近2%，助纳指扭转三连跌，标普反弹失利、和道指两连阴，但全周惊险累涨，纳指连跌两周。媒体称英财相考虑放弃提高个税，十年 期英债收益率跃升超10个基点。盘中原油高涨、金银大跌。原油两日反弹、扭转全周跌势，美油一度涨超3%。黄金两连跌仍连涨两周，期金一度跌近4%； 期银跌近5%，但全周反弹超5%。亚洲时段，AH股双双收跌，沪指失守4000点，创业板跌超3%，算力硬件产业链领跌，科指跌超2%，百度下跌7%，创新 药逆势上涨。 加密货币熊市加剧。比特币上周五盘中跌破9.5万美元，本周一亚市盘初，一度跌破9.3万美元，抹平今年内所有涨幅，较日高跌近4%，较10月6日涨破12.6 万美元所创的盘中最高纪录跌超3万美元、跌逾26%。 华见早安之声 请各位听众升级为见闻最新版APP，以便成功收听以下音频。 要闻 《求是》杂志发表中共中央总书记重要文章《因地制宜发展新质生产力》。韩文秀《求是》署名文章：深刻领会因地制宜发展新质生产力的重要 论述和决策部署。 李强主持召开国务院常务会议，部署增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费政策措施。 财政部：有力有效实施积极的财政政策，坚持扩大内需，支持建设强大国内 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial markets are experiencing volatility due to mixed signals from the Federal Reserve regarding interest rate policies, geopolitical tensions, and sector-specific performance in both U.S. and international markets [3][4][11]. Market Performance - U.S. stock indices showed mixed results with the Dow Jones down 0.65%, S&P 500 down 0.05%, and Nasdaq up 0.13% [4][8]. - European indices faced declines, with Germany's DAX30 down 0.69%, UK's FTSE 100 down 1.11%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 down 0.85% [4][8]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 1.85%, closing at 26,572.46 points, with significant declines in technology stocks [5][8]. - A-shares also declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.97%, closing below 4,000 points [6][9]. Commodity Prices - WTI crude oil prices rose by 2.13%, closing at $59.82 per barrel, while Brent crude increased by 0.22% to $63.95 per barrel [4][8]. - Gold prices fell by 2.2%, ending at $4,079.58 per ounce, and silver dropped by 3.4% to $50.56 per ounce [8][9]. Federal Reserve Signals - Federal Reserve officials, including Logan and Schmidt, issued strong hawkish signals, indicating that further rate cuts may not be appropriate at this time [11]. - The market is reacting to these signals, with expectations of interest rate stability impacting various asset classes [11]. Corporate Developments - Berkshire Hathaway disclosed a rare technology stock position, having built a stake in Alphabet, Google's parent company, during Q3 [11]. - Huawei is expected to announce breakthrough technologies in the AI sector, which could enhance computational resource efficiency [17].

Core Insights - The article highlights the investment strategy of Deng Xinyi, a fund manager at Nuoan Fund, who emphasizes the importance of early identification of investment opportunities in the technology sector, particularly in artificial intelligence (AI) [1][6]. Investment Experience - Deng Xinyi has a background in self-operated investment at a foreign trade trust company, focusing on new energy, new materials, and environmental protection, witnessing the rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry [2]. - The transition from new energy to technology investments has been marked by a systematic understanding of the changes from internet to mobile internet, recognizing the empowerment brought by technological advancements [2]. Investment Strategy - The core investment strategy revolves around technology growth, with a focus on identifying high-growth investment targets across different industries [3][4]. - The strategy incorporates macroeconomic data tracking, industry policy analysis, and micro-level research on individual stocks to identify competitive advantages and market share [3]. Identifying Opportunities - A unique approach to identifying forward-looking investment opportunities involves reading academic papers, which can reveal technological applications and market readiness before they are fully priced in by the market [5]. - The AI sector is viewed as a significant driver of the current technology wave, comparable to the mobile internet era, with ample investment opportunities and time for strategic positioning [6]. Company Characteristics - Companies that leverage AI capabilities to transform productivity across various sectors are prioritized, especially those with strong customer data and ecosystem barriers [7]. - The distinction between "shovel-type" companies (providing tools) and application-based companies is crucial for investment focus [7]. Stock Selection - Stock selection is based on technological foundations and the ability to match industry changes, alongside valuation assessments to identify stocks with significant return potential [8]. - Continuous industry research and tracking of high-frequency data are essential for evaluating investment opportunities and risks dynamically [8]. Market Dynamics - The article discusses the challenges faced in 2023, including market pullbacks in the AI sector, prompting a reassessment of the industry's genuine demand and the manager's investment capabilities [10][11]. - The importance of distinguishing between fluctuations caused by technological changes versus pricing changes is emphasized, as this can guide strategic adjustments in investment positions [11]. Fund Management - Active equity funds are positioned as tools for investors to engage in industry investments, with advantages in timely capturing investment opportunities and flexibility in portfolio adjustments compared to passive ETFs [12].

□本报记者 张韵 喜欢在论文中寻找产业前瞻趋势，常常为看到的技术进步而激动不已……寥寥数语，一个热衷于科技产 业投资的基金经理形象跃然纸上。化工材料专业出身，2013年开始研究布局新能源，如今逐渐聚焦科技 产业，诺安基金权益事业部副总经理、研究部总经理邓心怡正立足于人工智能（AI）浪潮开启她的投 资新征程。 近日，邓心怡在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，"前瞻再前瞻一些"是令她觉得踏实的超额收益策略。 在产业趋势初露苗头、市场还没有充分定价前进入，能够更稳妥地获得可观回报。与此同时，"读论 文"成为她前瞻性嗅到投资机会的重要法宝。展望未来，她认为，AI有望成为科技产业浪潮中的核心驱 动力，看好该板块蕴藏的丰富投资机会。 邓心怡，曾任职于中国对外贸易信托有限公司，从事投资研究工作。2020年11月加入诺安基金，现任权 益事业部副总经理兼研究部总经理。自2022年7月6日起担任基金经理，现管理诺安稳健回报混合、诺安 平衡混合、诺安优势行业混合、诺安研究优选混合等多只产品。 读论文发现投资机会 中国证券报：可以先简单介绍下你的投资经历吗？ 邓心怡：我最早是在外贸信托公司做自营投资，当时主要研究新能源、新材料、化工环保 ...

Core Insights - ESG has become a significant factor influencing corporate valuation, with many companies estimating their ESG ratings in preparation for IPOs to attract capital [1][2] - The integration of ESG into corporate value management has established a new paradigm for Chinese enterprises, emphasizing the importance of ESG in risk mitigation and long-term value growth [1][3] ESG Rating Impact on Corporate Value - Companies are increasingly seeking pre-IPO ESG ratings from agencies like S&P and MSCI to attract international investors and enhance stock liquidity [2] - High ESG ratings can lead to better financing opportunities and capital allocation, as evidenced by research showing a positive correlation between ESG ratings and market pricing [2][4] - Regulatory frameworks in China are incorporating ESG into value management, with guidelines emphasizing the alignment of board compensation with sustainable development [3] Pathways of ESG Influence - ESG influences corporate value primarily through ratings and public perception. High-rated companies signal lower risk and sustainable practices, attracting investment, while low-rated companies may be excluded from indices, negatively impacting their value [4] - Negative public sentiment from ESG-related incidents can lead to short-term value fluctuations, while positive ESG initiatives can enhance investor confidence and stabilize valuations [4] Sector-Specific ESG Focus - Different industries should prioritize specific ESG dimensions: high-energy sectors like steel and chemicals should focus on environmental issues, while consumer sectors should emphasize social dimensions such as product quality and consumer rights [8][9] - Financial institutions should enhance governance and compliance, while tech companies should focus on data security and employee rights [8][9] Activating Value Management through ESG - Companies are encouraged to treat ESG as a strategic priority, integrating it into daily operations and decision-making processes [9][10] - Establishing a dedicated sustainability committee and a robust ESG data management system can enhance transparency and reliability in ESG reporting [9][10] - Proactive communication with stakeholders about ESG performance can help convert ESG efforts into tangible value, ultimately leading to risk reduction and capital attraction [10]

Core Viewpoint - The concept of price increases based on supply and demand has become a key logic for fund managers to identify potential high-performing stocks, especially during year-end risk aversion periods [1][4]. Group 1: Price Increase as a Stock Selection Logic - Price increases are viewed as a strong indicator of corporate expansion and competitiveness, often leading to excess returns for investors [2][3]. - The price of Moutai liquor has risen from 499 yuan to approximately 1169 yuan from January 2011 to November 2023, significantly benefiting funds heavily invested in it [2]. - Internet companies like Bilibili, Meitu, and Tencent Music have also seen positive investment cycles due to membership price increases, with Meitu's net profit in the first half of this year reaching 467 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.3% [2]. Group 2: Impact of Price Decrease on Investment Decisions - The decline in prices within certain industries can signal dangerous trends for non-leading companies, as it may indicate either a recession or a competitive "elimination round" [3]. - Funds that heavily invested in Nayuki Tea faced significant losses as the industry entered a price-cutting phase, leading to its removal from major fund holdings [3]. Group 3: Fund Flows and Market Trends - The expectation of price increases has attracted significant capital into specific sectors, particularly during times of heightened risk aversion [4][5]. - Recent data shows that funds focused on resource themes and new energy have performed well, with some achieving returns of up to 31% in the past month, closely linked to price increase news in related industries [4]. - The rapid growth of chemical ETFs, despite previous underperformance, indicates strong investor sensitivity to price increase logic [5][6]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies - Fund managers emphasize the importance of price increase logic in their investment strategies, particularly in sectors like non-ferrous metals, where supply constraints are expected to drive prices higher [7]. - In the technology sector, rising prices for memory chips, driven by increased demand from AI applications, are expected to support strong performance in tech growth stocks [7].

《2049：未来10000天的可能》 （美）凯文·凯利（著） 吴晨（编） 中信出版集团 2025年6月出版 科技将如何重塑我们的生活？——读《2049：未来10000天的可能》 ◎南 芃 你能想象吗？今天不离手的智能手机，可能有一天会悄然退场。《2049：未来10000天的可能》这本书 预测，在未来10000天后的世界，智能手机将被智能眼镜取代。而当数十亿人戴上这些智能眼镜时，他 们看到的是现实世界与虚拟世界的叠加，未来的世界将是一个数字孪生的镜像世界。 本书作者凯文·凯利是《连线》杂志创始主编，他的代表作《失控》被誉为"本世纪对西方世界产生巨大 影响的最重要的著作之一"，曾影响了包括乔布斯在内的一代互联网创业者。本书的编著者吴晨，是 《经济学人·商论》原总编辑。本书起源于凯利在《5000天后的世界》一书的中文版出版后，希望与吴 晨合作，展望比5000天更远的世界，尤其希望立足中国视角，去思考科技所带来的变革。 作者在书中以2049年为时间节点，展望了人工智能、脑机接口等前沿技术将如何塑造未来的社会与生 活。 需要特别指出的是，本书并不是一本科幻小说，它是基于现实的三个模型展开的理性想象： 第一个预测模型是观 ...

Core Insights - The issuance of dim sum bonds has rapidly increased, with over 470 billion RMB raised for major tech companies like Alibaba, Baidu, Tencent, and Meituan, attracting nearly 1500 billion RMB in subscriptions, which is 3.2 times the issuance amount [1] - Dim sum bonds, or offshore RMB bonds, provide a diversified financing channel for mainland and Hong Kong enterprises, enhancing the circulation and international use of the RMB [1] Summary by Sections Market Growth - The issuance scale of dim sum bonds has grown significantly since 2022, with 1179 bonds totaling 746.97 billion RMB issued in 2022, 1484 bonds totaling 967.53 billion RMB in 2023, and 2086 bonds totaling 1278.70 billion RMB projected for 2024, marking the first annual issuance exceeding 1 trillion RMB [1] - As of now in 2025, the total issuance of dim sum bonds has reached 979.45 billion RMB [1] Reasons for Market Expansion - The acceleration of RMB internationalization has enhanced its status in the international monetary system, providing offshore investors with a channel to allocate RMB assets [2] - The expansion of the offshore RMB funding pool, driven by international trade and investment activities, has created a solid funding base for the dim sum bond market [2] - Mainland enterprises seek to diversify financing channels, as dim sum bonds offer lower financing costs compared to USD bonds, meeting funding needs for R&D and expansion [2] - Hong Kong's position as the largest offshore RMB center, with a mature financial market and professional services, attracts enterprises to issue dim sum bonds [2] Characteristics of Dim Sum Bond Issuance - The issuance of dim sum bonds is characterized by a diverse range of issuers, including state-owned enterprises, financial institutions, tech companies, real estate firms, and local government financing platforms [3] - The investor base is increasingly international, attracting global institutional investors such as large funds, banks, insurance companies, and high-net-worth individuals [3] - There is a variety of bond types emerging, including green and sustainable dim sum bonds, catering to different financing purposes and investor needs [3] - The maturity structure of bonds is rich, covering short to long-term options, aligning with corporate funding plans and various investment strategies [3] Recommendations for Market Development - To further activate and expand the dim sum bond market, it is suggested to enhance market infrastructure, improve bond trading platforms, and reduce transaction costs [3] - Encouraging product innovation, such as asset-backed dim sum bonds and those linked to RMB exchange rates, is recommended [3] - Strengthening policy support and regulatory coordination, including tax incentives for offshore investors, is essential, along with improved cooperation between mainland and Hong Kong financial regulators [3]

本周回顾 · 股票市场 本周（11月10日至11月14日）A股市场主要宽基指数悉数回调。其中，上证指数周度下跌0.18%；深证成指周度下跌1.40%；创业板指周度下跌3.01%；新华 500指数周度下跌1.09%。 新华500指数本周震荡回调，开盘报5180.21点，至14日收盘报5111.18点，全周振幅2.01%，成交额为3.43万亿元。 从申万一级行业来看，本周行业指数涨多跌少，综合、纺织服饰、商贸零售、美容护理、医药生物等行业指数涨幅居前，通信、电子、计算机、机械设备、 国防军工等行业指数跌幅居前。 外汇市场方面，美元指数本周整体走势承压，一度跌破99关口，周五收于99.28点，累计下跌0.26%，为连续第二周收跌。尽管美国联邦政府史上最长"停 摆"结束，但"停摆"导致美国部分关键经济数据发布缺失，令外界难以判断美国经济真实状况。非美货币多数上行，其中欧元兑美元累计上涨0.48%，日元兑 美元累计下挫0.72%，英镑兑美元累计上涨0.08%。加密货币市场本周全线下挫，比特币跌破95000美元。 | | 11月10日-11月14日当周数 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 分类 | 名称 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the Chinese market, focusing on various sectors including technology, manufacturing, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods [1][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Outlook**: The index is expected to rise to 4,200-4,300 points from December to February, driven by product structure adjustments and increased capital inflow, alongside supportive policies from the upcoming "15th Five-Year Plan" [1][3]. 2. **Valuation Expansion**: The Chinese market is currently in a valuation expansion phase, with reduced fears of sanctions due to changing perceptions of US-China relations and rationalized economic policies [4][6]. 3. **Sector Recommendations**: - **Technology Sector**: Focus on AI, internet, new energy vehicles, electronic semiconductors, and media communications [5]. - **Manufacturing**: Global expansion in power equipment, machinery, and auto parts [5]. - **Aviation**: Strong fundamentals with record high passenger load factors and low ticket prices, indicating a potential super cycle [10]. - **Oil Shipping**: Record high freight rates expected to lead to the highest profits in a decade due to OPEC production increases and geopolitical factors [11]. - **Chemicals**: Optimism for leading companies benefiting from supply-side optimization and cost advantages [3][16]. - **Consumer Goods**: Opportunities in food, beverages, and retail sectors, particularly for companies with low stock and strong fundamentals [7][30]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Economic Recovery**: The upcoming year is expected to show a high probability of economic recovery, particularly in traditional sectors like cyclical and consumer goods [6]. 2. **Investment Strategies**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with low stock prices and strong fundamentals, especially in the consumer goods sector [7][9]. 3. **Brokerage Role**: Brokerages are anticipated to play a crucial role in market advancement, especially as capital market reforms progress [8]. 4. **Metal Industry Outlook**: Positive expectations for the metal sector, with industrial metals likely to benefit from global liquidity and emerging demands from AI infrastructure and new energy vehicles [18][19]. 5. **Chemical Industry Trends**: The chemical sector has seen significant supply-side optimization, with leading companies expected to benefit from a recovery in demand and pricing [13][14][16]. 6. **Oil Market Dynamics**: Current oil market conditions show a supply surplus, but OPEC's cautious production increases are expected to support prices in the medium term [24]. Conclusion The conference call highlights a generally optimistic outlook for the Chinese market across various sectors, with specific recommendations for investment opportunities in technology, aviation, oil shipping, chemicals, and consumer goods. The anticipated economic recovery and supportive policies are expected to drive market performance in the coming months.