Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that Guangdong Mingzhu (600382) is expected to achieve significant profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit projected between 215 million to 263 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 858.45% to 1071.44% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is also expected to be between 215 million to 263 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 428.49% to 545.93% [1] - The increase in profit is driven by the subsidiary Mingzhu Mining's expansion project, which has led to a significant rise in iron concentrate production and sales, with a year-on-year increase of approximately 212.49% [1] Group 2 - The iron ore industry experienced a rebound in the third quarter, contributing to the explosive growth in Guangdong Mingzhu's performance [1] - Analysts from Guangfa Futures noted that iron ore futures saw a strong upward trend in July, supported by policies and a tight supply-demand balance, which continued into August and September [2] - The positive sentiment in the steel industry, driven by slight growth in terminal steel demand and steel mills replenishing raw material inventories, has bolstered iron ore prices [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market faces significant destocking pressure due to high supply and insufficient demand, and the futures market may be under pressure [3]. - The iron ore market has a marginal improvement in fundamentals, with short - term prices likely to rise due to demand recovery and supply disruptions [20]. - The coking coal and coke prices may be supported in the short term, but their rebound height depends on the downstream steel market's supply - demand balance [32]. - The ferroalloy market has a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand, and the price increase is restricted [45]. - The soda ash market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with high - level inventory restricting the price [55]. - The glass market has a pattern of strong near - term supply and weak demand, and the price is restricted by high inventory and weak demand [82]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - During the holiday, the apparent demand for the five major steel products was weak, inventory accumulated faster than usual, and the inventory - to - sales ratio reached the highest level in recent years. The hot - rolled coil inventory accumulation was significant. The steel market has a large destocking pressure [3]. - Long - process steel mills still have some profit margins and lack the motivation to cut production voluntarily, while the demand has not improved significantly. The contradiction between high supply and insufficient demand is prominent, and the pressure of negative - feedback production cuts is gradually accumulating [3]. - After the holiday, the raw material replenishment motivation is expected to be weak due to insufficient steel demand [3]. - The prices and spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures on October 9, 2025, are presented in detail, showing price changes compared to September 30, 2025 [4]. Iron Ore - During the holiday, the iron ore market was stable, with shipments above 30 million tons, and the demand side saw steel mills replenishing stocks as needed. Terminal demand recovered seasonally, and inventory decreased, with the fundamentals improving marginally [20]. - Short - term disturbances may come from the supply side, such as China's request to suspend the purchase of BHP's seaborne cargoes and the accident at Simandou that may delay production [20]. - The price data of iron ore futures contracts on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30 and September 24, 2025 [21]. - The fundamental data of iron ore, including daily average pig iron production, port desilting volume, and inventory, show weekly and monthly changes [26]. Coking Coal and Coke - In the fourth quarter, domestic coking coal mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity is limited. The winter storage scale this year is expected to be better than last year, which may support prices [32]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coking coal and coke prices depend on the downstream steel market's supply - demand balance [32]. - The price data of coking coal and coke futures and spot on October 9, 2025, are presented, including basis, spreads, and profits [35][36]. Ferroalloy - The ferroalloy supply is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years, while the demand has not improved significantly during the peak season, resulting in a prominent contradiction between high supply and weak demand [45]. - The electricity price in Ningxia has increased, forming a cost - bottom expectation for silicon iron. However, the funds are withdrawing from the market, which restricts price increases [45]. - The daily data of silicon iron and silicon manganese on October 9, 2025, are provided, including basis, spreads, and spot prices [46][48]. Soda Ash - Market sentiment is volatile, increasing the price volatility of soda ash. The second - phase ignition of Yuanxing has started the trial operation, increasing the long - term supply pressure [55]. - The downstream demand for soda ash is mainly for rigid replenishment, and the alkali plants' high - level inventory has been somewhat relieved [55]. - The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the high - level inventory restricts the price [55]. - The price and spread data of soda ash futures on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30, 2025 [56]. Glass - The glass market has high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream, and weak demand restricts the price. There are still differences in whether there will be an unexpected reduction in supply in the fourth quarter [82]. - The near - term supply is strong and demand is weak, and the mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei is high, with weak phased replenishment ability [82]. - The price and spread data of glass futures on October 9, 2025, are provided, along with changes compared to September 30, 2025 [83]. - The daily sales data of glass in different regions from October 2 to 8, 2025, are presented [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating trend after the holiday, with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers more than expected in October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content, coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies will also affect the market [4]. - The coking coal supply in October is expected to be relatively stable but lower than last year, and imported coal has room for growth. The current market supply and demand are balanced, and the future coal production regulation policies will support coking coal prices, while the steel demand and profit limit the upside space of raw materials [12]. - The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels. Although the domestic manufacturing steel demand is expected to recover in the fourth quarter, the current weakening of terminal demand and the increase in supply have put downward pressure on prices [17]. - The supply and demand of ferrosilicon are generally stable, and the price is not suitable for short - selling. For silicomanganese, the supply is still at a high level year - on - year, and the demand is stable, with cost support [22]. 3. Summary by Commodity Steel - **Related News**: The US will impose a 25% tariff on imported medium and heavy - duty trucks from November 1, 2025, and the EU plans to impose a 50% tariff on steel imports, which may severely impact the UK steel industry [2]. - **Spot Prices**: In Shanghai, the price of rebar is 3230 yuan (-10), and the price of hot - rolled coil is 3330 yuan (-20). In Beijing, the rebar price is 3160 yuan (-), and in Tianjin, the hot - rolled coil price is 3280 yuan (-10) [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: Before the holiday, the black sector declined, and during the holiday, steel stocks increased significantly. The supply and demand were weak, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. If the demand recovers in October, the price may rise [4]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread; for options, it is recommended to wait and see [7][8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Related News**: The utilization rate of coking coal mines decreased this week, and the production and inventory of raw coal and clean coal changed. During the National Day, the price of imported coking coal from Mongolia was stable [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the prices of coking coal and coke were stable. In October, the supply of coking coal is expected to be stable but lower than last year, and the demand is supported by high pig iron production. In the medium - term, policies will support the price, but the steel demand limits the upside [11][12]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to go long on dips; for arbitrage, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 1 - 5 spread; for options and spot - futures trading, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14]. Iron Ore - **Related News**: The cross - regional population flow during the National Day reached a record high, the US government continued to shut down, the iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the spot prices of iron ore in Qingdao Port changed [14][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: During the holiday, the Singapore iron ore swap oscillated narrowly. In the third quarter, the global iron ore shipments increased, and the demand was weak in China but high overseas. The iron ore price is expected to face pressure at high levels [17]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to expect a weak trend; for arbitrage, it is recommended to conduct spot - futures reverse arbitrage; for options, it is recommended to use the circuit - breaker cumulative put strategy [18]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Related News**: The average operating rate of ferrosilicon in September decreased slightly, and the US government shut down [19][21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the demand was stable. The supply of silicomanganese decreased slightly but was still high year - on - year, and the demand was stable with cost support [22]. - **Trading Strategies**: For single - side trading, it is recommended to reduce short positions or sell out - of - the - money put options; for arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see; for options, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options [23].

Group 1 - China, as the world's largest iron ore importer, has previously overpaid due to the influence of international miners setting the Platts price [1] - In 2024, the landed price of Australian ore is expected to be several dozen dollars per ton higher than West African ore, with dollar settlements exposing steel companies to unnecessary exchange rate risks [1] - Hebei Steel Group's iron ore payments in RMB exceeded 2.4 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 25%, highlighting the advantages of RMB settlements [1] Group 2 - China and Australia have completed the integration of the RMB settlement system for wool and barley trade, with the first batch of 20,000 tons of barley shipped using RMB payments [3] - The internationalization of the RMB is steadily advancing, and more trade is expected to adopt RMB settlements in the future [3] Group 3 - Confidence in achieving goals is emphasized, with expectations that more countries and international enterprises will join the use of RMB settlements [6] - The internationalization of the RMB will continue to progress, enhancing its importance on the global stage and establishing it as a significant currency for global trade settlements [6]

铁矿石11合约月度价格预测（10月） 铁矿石风险管理报告 2025/10/09 周甫翰 （投资咨询证号 Z0020173） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 | 价格预测区间 | 当前平值期权IV | 历史波动率分位数 | | --- | --- | --- | | 780-850 | 19.93% | 11.3% | source： 南华研究 铁矿石风险管理策略建议（10月） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 风险敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 套保比例 | | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 目前有现货，担心未来库存跌价 | 多 | 直接做空铁矿期货锁定利润 | I2511 | 空 | 25% | 840-850 | | | | | 卖看涨期权收权利金 | I2511-C-850 | | 30% | 逢高卖 | | 采购管理 | 未来要采购，担心涨价 | 空 | 直接做多铁矿期货锁定成本 | I2511 | 多 | 30% | 780-790 | | | | | 卖虚值看跌 ...

Anec同时指出，巴西10月份豆粕出口量预计为192万吨，略低于去年10月的246万吨，但年累计出口预 计仍将超过1900万吨。 除农产品外，巴西铁矿石对华出口同样保持强劲势头。Anec报告称，中国继续是巴西铁矿石出口的主 要目的地，9月份中国进口了约650万吨巴西铁矿石，占巴西铁矿石出口总量的93%，维持历史高位。 分析人士认为，中国基础设施投资稳步推进、钢铁产量回升以及必和必拓长协议谈判未果，中国对巴西 矿产品的需求仍将保持强劲。 新华财经圣保罗10月9日电（记者杨家和） 巴西全国谷物出口商协会（Anec）8日发布报告称，今年1月 至10月，巴西大豆出口量预计达1.022亿吨，将超过2023年和2024年全年出口水平，创下历史新高。受 益于中国采购需求持续增长及创纪录的丰收，巴西正巩固其全球最大大豆出口国地位。 报告显示，2024年因气候影响导致减产，巴西全年大豆出口量为9730万吨；而2023年创下的纪录为 1.013亿吨。Anec表示，预计11月至12月仍有约800万吨的出货计划，这使得巴西全年大豆出口总量有望 达到1.1亿吨。 Anec指出，中国仍是巴西大豆的最大买家，9月进口约650万吨，占巴西当 ...

Group 1 - China's recent statement indicates a shift in its approach to international affairs, moving away from a passive role to actively influencing global resource flows and industrial layouts [1][10] - The scale of China's market influence is significant, with approximately 75% of global iron ore trade being directed to China, and at one point, China consumed half of U.S. soybean exports [2][5] - The economic impact on countries like Australia is profound, as seen when China suspended purchases from BHP, leading to concerns about iron ore sales and economic stability in Australia [4] Group 2 - China's shift in purchasing has led to a dramatic decrease in soybean imports from the U.S., with imports dropping to under 3 million tons in the first half of the year, while imports from Brazil surged to nearly 39 million tons [5][9] - This change has resulted in a crisis for U.S. farmers, with bankruptcy rates rising to the highest level since 2021 due to unsold soybeans [7] - In contrast, South American countries like Brazil and Argentina are experiencing increased demand, with Argentina lowering soybean export tariffs to zero to enhance competitiveness [9] Group 3 - China's actions are not merely commercial but are aimed at challenging the dominance of the U.S. dollar in commodity pricing and settlement, addressing the long-standing issue of pricing power [10][12] - The strategy includes establishing a pricing system for iron ore centered around the Chinese yuan, moving the global pricing center from places like Singapore to China [14] - The military strength of China, particularly advancements in naval capabilities, underpins its economic strategies, allowing for more assertive actions in the market [16][18] Group 4 - The overarching goal of China is to create a more equitable international trade system rather than inciting chaos, reflecting a strategic adjustment in response to its rising comprehensive strength [21]

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - After the holiday, demand for steel is expected to seasonally recover, and inventory is expected to maintain a seasonal destocking trend. Although demand elasticity is limited, short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and inventory pressure is not significant. - Before the holiday, the decline in steel prices was due to concerns about supply pressure and the expected swing of coal mine production cuts. During the holiday, there were disturbances on the iron ore supply side, which is expected to support steel prices to stabilize. - For trading strategies, the unilateral driving force is not obvious. In terms of arbitrage, reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread should be considered at high levels, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to converge. [1] Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts generally declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3240 yuan/ton to 3230 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract price of hot - rolled coils decreased from 3298 yuan/ton to 3259 yuan/ton. [1] Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 2950 yuan/ton, while the price of slab remained unchanged at 3730 yuan/ton. - Profits from steel products generally declined. For example, the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreased by 35 yuan/ton. [1] Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron output increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 2.1 to 867.1, a 0.2% increase. - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 37.8 to 1472.9, a 2.5% decrease. The inventory of rebar decreased by 34.1 to 602.3, a 5.4% decrease. [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material transactions decreased by 2.9 to 8.0, a 26.5% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 30.8 to 904.8, a 3.5% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 20.6 to 241.1, a 9.4% increase. [1] Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - There have been many disturbances on the supply side of iron ore, but the overseas iron ore swap market has only shown a slight increase. Iron ore has a driving force for a rebound, but the upside space is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual arrival of BHP's shipments at ports. - For trading strategies, short - term investors can buy iron ore 2601 contracts at low levels in the price range of 760 - 830, go long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils, and buy out - of - the - money call options on iron ore 2601. [4] Summary by Directory Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The basis of the 01 - contract for different types of iron ore increased. For example, the basis of the 01 - contract for PB powder increased by 3.5 to 44.4, an 8.5% increase. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 19.0, a 2.6% decrease; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 1.0 to - 40.0, a 2.4% increase; the 1 - 5 spread decreased by 0.5 to 21.0, a 2.3% decrease. [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The price of some iron ore varieties at Rizhao Port remained unchanged, while the price of new - exchange 62% Fe swaps increased slightly by 0.2 to 104.2, a 0.1% increase. [4] Supply and Demand - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 248.2 to 2608.7, a 10.5% increase; the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 196.4 to 3279.0, a 5.7% decrease. - The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 241.8, a 0.2% decrease; the weekly average daily port clearance volume at 45 ports decreased by 336.4 to 0.0, a 100.0% decrease. [4] Report on the Coke and Coking Coal Industry Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. Core Viewpoints Coke - After the holiday, there is an expectation of another round of price increases for coke, but due to the decline in steel prices and the compression of steel mill profits, there may be downward pressure on prices. Since the pre - holiday decline in the futures market has already factored in some of the downward expectations, the further downward space is limited, and the market is expected to fluctuate. - For trading strategies, operate in a fluctuating market with a price range of 1550 - 1650. Go long on coke and short on coking coal, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coke 2601 (over - the - counter) to bet on the post - holiday restocking expectation. [8] Coking Coal - Although there have been some disturbances on the supply side, considering the pre - holiday weak operation of the coking coal market, the impact is expected to be limited. The long - term import trade of coking coal will still maintain high profits, and the post - holiday customs clearance volume is expected to remain high, which will have a certain impact on the domestic coking coal market. Since the pre - holiday decline in the futures market has already factored in some of the downward expectations, the market is expected to fluctuate. - For trading strategies, operate in a fluctuating market with a price range of 1080 - 1180. Go long on coke and short on coking coal, and buy out - of - the - money call options on coking coal 2601 (over - the - counter) to bet on the policy - driven production reduction expectation. [8] Summary by Directory Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke contracts generally declined. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 24 to 1623, a 1.5% decrease. The 01 - contract basis increased by 24. [8] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The prices of coking coal contracts also declined. For example, the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 28 to 1126, a 2.4% decrease. The 01 - contract basis increased by 23. [8] Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.1, a 0.4% decrease. - The pig iron output decreased by 0.6 to 241.8, a 0.2% decrease. - Coke inventory decreased slightly, while coking coal inventory in some sectors increased. For example, the inventory of all - sample coking plants' coking coal increased by 38.6 to 1037.7, a 3.9% increase. [8]

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the holiday, the demand for steel is expected to seasonally recover, and the inventory is expected to maintain a seasonal destocking trend. The short - term supply and demand are basically balanced, and the inventory pressure is not large. The steel price is expected to stabilize. For trading strategies, the unilateral driving force is not obvious. In terms of arbitrage, the monthly spread should be mainly reverse arbitrage at high levels, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar should converge. [1] Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures contracts generally declined. For example, the rebar 05 contract decreased from 3155 to 3128 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased from 3289 to 3253 yuan/ton. [1] - **Cost and Profit**: The steel billet price decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the profits of various steel products generally declined. For example, the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 35. [1] - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased by 0.4% to 242.0 tons, and the output of five major steel products increased by 0.2% to 867.1 tons. The electric - furnace output of rebar increased by 13.6%, while the converter output decreased by 1.4%. [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.5% to 1472.9 tons, and the rebar inventory decreased by 5.4% to 602.3 tons. [1] - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials transaction volume decreased by 26.5% to 8.0 tons, while the apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 3.5% to 904.8 tons, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 9.4% to 241.1 tons. [1] Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - There are many disturbances on the supply side of iron ore, but the upward space is limited. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual arrival situation of BHP's shipments. The trading strategies include short - term long - position trading of iron ore 2601 in the price range of 760 - 830, long - iron - ore and short - hot - rolled coil, and buying out - of - the - money call options of iron ore 2601. [4] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of some iron ore varieties for the 01 contract increased, such as the 01 contract basis of PB powder increased from 40.9 to 44.4 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 2.6% to 19.0. [4] - **Supply**: The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 10.5% to 2608.7 tons, the global shipment volume decreased by 5.7% to 3279.0 tons, and the national monthly import volume increased by 0.6% to 10522.5 tons. [4] - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% to 241.8 tons, the 45 - port daily average unloading volume decreased by 100.0% to 0.0 tons, the national monthly pig iron output decreased by 1.4% to 6979.3 tons, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 2.9% to 7736.9 tons. [4] - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory decreased by 0.2% to 13977.79 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.1% to 10036.8 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 4.2% to 25.0 days. [4] Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - For coke, after the festival, there is still an expectation of a price increase, but it may face downward pressure due to the decline in steel prices. The downward space is limited, and it is regarded as a volatile market. For coking coal, due to the impact of imports and the pre - holiday market, it is also regarded as a volatile market. [8] Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts generally declined. For example, the coke 01 contract decreased from 1647 to 1623 yuan/ton, and the coking coal 01 contract decreased from 1154 to 1126 yuan/ton. [8] - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 66.1 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% to 241.8 tons. The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased by 0.5% to 876.6 tons. [8] - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.2% to 241.8 tons, and the daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.4% to 66.1 tons. [8] - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory decreased by 0.1% to 919.8 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 3.9% to 1037.7 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.0% to 788.1 tons. [8] - **Supply - Demand Gap**: The calculated supply - demand gap of coke increased slightly from - 4.6 to - 4.5 tons. [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - During the National Day holiday, the actual demand for steel continued to be weak, but with the macro - environment turning more accommodative, market expectations for the recovery of steel demand are rising. In the short term, the pattern of weak reality is hard to reverse, and as the Fourth Plenary Session approaches, the market may enter a stage of "strong expectation, weak reality" again. Steel prices still face some downward risks from the fundamental perspective, and policy signals and the dynamics related to the Fourth Plenary Session need to be closely monitored [2]. - For the black sector, in the current demand and supply environment, prices may first decline to release the bearish sentiment in the market, and then rise with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". Although the current profit rate of steel mills is better than in 2023, the black sector may gradually become more cost - effective for long - positions in the future, and it may be better to look for long - entry opportunities after price corrections around mid - October [8]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - On September 30, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3072 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (- 0.80%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 285,846 tons, a daily increase of 15,608 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.873832 million lots, a daily decrease of 52,807 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated rebar price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3230 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3253 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton (- 1.09%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 28,314 tons, with no daily change. The main contract's open interest was 1.349868 million lots, a daily decrease of 34,602 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton, and in Shanghai was 3330 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - During the National Day holiday, steel demand was significantly weaker than last year. For rebar, terminal demand hit a new low, inventory continued to accumulate, and the inventory - to - sales ratio rose significantly. For hot - rolled coils, production decreased slightly, but apparent demand declined more significantly, and inventory increased notably. The post - holiday demand recovery needs to be monitored [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - On September 30, the iron ore main contract (I2601) closed at 780.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.45% (- 3.50), and the open interest changed by - 26,627 lots to 447,400 lots. The weighted open interest of iron ore was 746,300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 779 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 47.43 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.73%. During the National Day holiday, the TSI iron ore continuous contract closed at 104.15 US dollars/ton, up 1.46% from before the holiday [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - During the holiday, steel mill production remained stable, and overseas ore shipments were on a steady pace. In terms of supply, the end - of - third - quarter shipment rush by mines ended, and the latest overseas iron ore shipments remained high but decreased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the average daily pig iron output announced before the holiday was 2.4181 million tons, a decrease of 0.055 million tons month - on - month. If the situation of finished products weakens after the holiday, iron ore prices may adjust downward [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On September 30, the manganese silicon main contract (SM601) closed down 1.07% at 5758 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5890 yuan/ton on the futures basis, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 132 yuan/ton over the futures. The ferrosilicon main contract (SF511) closed down 2.07% at 5494 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a premium of 206 yuan/ton over the futures [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - Affected by short - term realistic demand, the black sector has a downward correction risk, especially around the National Day holiday. The high pig iron output above 2.4 million tons puts pressure on prices. The price trend may be similar to that around the National Day holiday in 2023, first falling and then rising with the expectations of the "Fourth Plenary Session". For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but if the black sector strengthens, attention should be paid to potential disturbances in the manganese ore segment. Ferrosilicon is likely to follow the black sector's trend, with relatively low trading cost - effectiveness [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - On September 30, the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) closed at 8640 yuan/ton, up 0.35% (+ 30). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 42,731 lots to 399,733 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygenated industrial silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 660 yuan/ton for the main contract; the price of 421 was 9700 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 260 yuan/ton [11]. - The polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) closed at 51,360 yuan/ton, up 0.16% (+ 80). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 2957 lots to 226,349 lots. The average spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 51.05 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.55 yuan/kg, unchanged, with a basis of 1190 yuan/ton for the main contract [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, its supply and demand have not changed significantly. Although there is an expectation of production cuts during the dry season, the start - up rate of large northwest plants has not yet peaked, and downstream demand has limited upward space. If production cuts occur in the southwest during the dry season and downstream demand remains stable, the high - level inventory may be reduced, and the valuation of far - month contracts may increase. For polysilicon, the current market lacks upward drivers, and there is a risk of short - term price decline. Attention should be paid to the maintenance of leading enterprises and policy changes [12][15]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - On the Tuesday before the holiday at 15:00, the glass main contract closed at 1210 yuan/ton, down 1.47% (- 18). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1230 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1220 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million cases, down 1.553 million cases (- 2.55%) [17]. - The soda ash main contract closed at 1255 yuan/ton, down 1.80% (- 23). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1165 yuan, down 23 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.6515 million tons, down 0.1041 million tons (- 2.55%), including 0.9224 million tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, down 0.0837 million tons, and 0.7291 million tons of light - soda ash inventory, down 0.0204 million tons [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - The glass futures market showed a wide - range shock pattern before the holiday. Terminal demand was weak, and downstream procurement was cautious. Supply was relatively abundant, and inventory performance varied by region. It is recommended to pay attention to policy trends and take a slightly bullish view in the short term. The domestic soda ash market was generally stable with minor fluctuations. Production was stable, and demand was flat. The market is expected to continue the shock - consolidation pattern in the short term [18][20].