交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (2.2-2.6) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油现跌后升震荡运行。纽约交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶63.50美元，周跌3.41%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 68.10美元，周跌2.48%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至474.2元/桶，周涨0.72%。周内前期，由于伊朗和美国仍存谈判可能，市场担忧情绪缓和 导致油价承压大幅下跌。据伊朗媒体报道，伊朗总统下令同美国启动核谈判，伊朗可能在未来几天同美国举行高规格谈判。但另一方面，市场 密切关注伊朗局势以及美国可能的军事干预，美国总统特朗普表示，派往中东的美国舰队规模大于派往委内瑞拉的舰队，并威胁 ...

（文章来源：新华财经） 分区域来看，辽宁、甘肃、青海、内蒙古、四川、江苏、江西、山西汽油批发价格上涨，重庆、安徽、 浙江、广东、福建、海南、广西汽油批发价格下跌；辽宁、甘肃、海南柴油批发价格上涨，青海、福 建、陕西、北京、宁夏、上海、天津、江苏、河南、广东柴油批发价格下跌。山东地炼方面，汽油价格 小幅下跌，柴油价格大幅下跌。 中国汽、柴油批发价格由中国经济信息社-中国石油经济技术研究院"能源大数据实验室"联合上海石油 天然气交易中心发布，基于对全国范围内主要经营单位和社会经营单位（不含炼厂）的批发价格数据采 集并计算形成，是反映中国汽、柴油批发市场整体情况的权威产品。 新华财经北京2月9日电中国汽、柴油批发价格显示，2月6日，中国汽、柴油批发价格整体"汽稳柴跌"。 全国92#汽油平均批发价格为7427元／吨，与前一日持平；柴油（含低凝点）平均批发价格为6088元／ 吨，较前一日下跌12元／吨。 从市场整体情况来看，2月5日国际原油期货价格收跌，一揽子原油平均价格变化率正向幅度收窄，消息 面利好支撑减弱。终端需求未见实质性改善，业者多持观望态度，市场购销氛围清淡。 ...

国信证券主要观点如下： 1月油价回顾 2026年1月布伦特原油期货均价为64.7美元/桶，环比上涨3.1美元/桶，月末收于70.7美元/桶;WTI原油期 货均价60.2美元/桶，环比上涨2.4美元/桶，月末收于65.2美元/桶。1月上旬，美国对委内瑞拉实施制 裁，并抓捕马杜罗总统夫妇，委内瑞拉向美国移交数千万桶原油增加石油供应，国际油价震荡下跌;1月 中上旬，伊朗爆发抗议活动，且美国可能对伊朗采取军事行动，引发对伊朗出口可能减少的担忧，国际 油价大幅上涨;1月中下旬，哈萨克斯坦油田暂时停产，但特朗普对欧洲八国加征关税，油价窄幅震荡;1 月下旬，美国对伊朗实施新制裁，特朗普重新发动军事威胁，极寒天气天然气价格暴涨，油价宽幅上 涨。 供给端 智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，2026年1月布伦特原油期货及WTI原油期货均价环比上涨。 供给端看，OPEC+决定2026年3月继续暂停增产。需求端，国际主要能源机构预计2026年原油需求增长 93-130万桶/天，预计2027年原油需求增长129-134万桶/天。政策推动下，该行预计国内炼油炼化行业供 给侧将得到有力优化。此外，预计2026年布伦特油价中枢在55- ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index decreased by 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.73% on February 9, 2026[1] - A total of 2,609 stocks rose while 2,475 stocks declined, with total trading volume exceeding 2.14 trillion yuan, showing a slight decrease compared to the previous period[1] Market Trends - The market is experiencing a low opening followed by a high rise and then a retreat, indicating a lack of clear direction[1] - Investors are advised to either look for a breakout above the 5-day and 10-day moving averages or seek support near the 60-day moving average[1] Sector Performance - Resource sectors such as mining, energy metals, jewelry, batteries, chemicals, and oil saw significant gains due to rising prices driven by geopolitical tensions and economic recovery[1] - Conversely, sectors like commercial retail, liquor, tourism, aerospace, media, and airports faced notable declines[1] Fund Flows - On February 6, 2026, net inflows into the Shanghai Stock Exchange amounted to 16.369 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Stock Exchange saw net inflows of 19.644 billion yuan[4] Economic Indicators - The global manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51% in January 2026, an increase of 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing activity[5][6] - The Asian manufacturing PMI slightly decreased to 51%, while the Americas' PMI increased to 51.8%[6] Investment Insights - Investors are encouraged to selectively buy into resource-related stocks as prices of upstream raw materials are expected to rise further with economic recovery[1] - In January 2026, global gold ETFs attracted a record inflow of 18.7 billion USD, bringing total assets under management to 669 billion USD, marking a historical high[12]

2月6日，"中东因素"成为市场资金流动的重要推手，文华财经石油板块上涨0.98%，成为涨幅最大的板块，资 金净流入33.66亿元，而化工板块下跌0.78%，资金净流入14.31亿元。 波斯湾风云再起，全球化工市场暗流涌动。 当前美伊对峙已触高危临界点，全球目光集中在伊美核谈判上，国际油价存在超预期反弹的风险。伊朗是全球 能源化工产品重要供应国，原油、燃料油等品种出口占比显著，且波斯湾—霍尔木兹海峡是全球能源运输"咽 喉"，一旦冲突发生将直接影响供应与运输安全。 2月6日，在国内商品期货市场情绪趋向谨慎，资金继续撤离的大背景下，石油期货板块逆势获得近34亿元资金 青睐，化工期货板块也吸引超14亿元资金流入，原油及橡胶等均获大量资金加持。 中东持续拉响警报 根据卓创资讯数据，在跟踪的319个产品中，207个品种上涨，上涨品种环比增加69个。其中，涨幅居前的分别 为液氯、氢氧化锂、乙腈、碳酸锂和丁二烯，涨幅分别为71.43%、44.10%、32.86%、25.58%和25.31%。69个 品种下跌，下跌品种环比减少78 个。跌幅居前的分别是双氧水、硝酸、烧碱、煤油和氩气，分别下跌 18.40%、16.71%、13. ...

那些原本运往印度的油轮，很可能很快转向中国。能源贸易的本质就是市场的博弈，谁能够稳定，谁就能够抢占更 多的市场份额。中国拥有更庞大、更活跃的市场，俄罗斯如果选择将油卖给中国，恐怕连美国都在想方设法将自家 的能源输送到中国市场。大家互相博弈，但中国市场的确定性无疑是最为亮眼的。对于俄罗斯来说，若印度退潮， 油价的折扣更加明显，中国无疑将成为最大受益者。 印度最近提出停止购买俄罗斯石油，这个举动表面上看似是在对俄罗斯表现出强硬态度，实则背后充满了讨价还价 的成分。莫迪此举，表面上是站队，但其真正的意图则是在与美国进行贸易谈判时利用这一点作为筹码。在大国博 弈的能源棋局中，最忌讳的就是自作聪明。莫迪或许认为通过将俄罗斯的石油作为筹码，能够换来美国的让步，但 实际上，这一举动很可能会让印度的信用被大大折扣。 特朗普曾公开表示，美印之间已经达成了贸易协议，只是双方为了避免外界过多关注而选择低调处理。这背后隐藏 着的交易，不是完全光明正大，一方要面子，一方要里子。特朗普宣称，美国将把对印度商品加征的关税降至 18%，这并不是美国在坚持原则，而是在精打细算、讲求交易的价格。 当印度承诺停止购买俄罗斯石油并承诺购买价值超过5 ...

古巴政府发布的官方航行通告指出，航空燃油短缺将影响古巴所有国际机场。该通知有效期为期一个 月，从2月10日持续至3月11日。 8日，我驻古巴使馆发布通告，提醒中国公民及时关注赴古航班变动和旅行风险。通告指出，古巴航空 燃油短缺已经影响国际航班。 经济观察网 据央视新闻客户端消息，当地时间2月8日，总台记者获悉，消息人士称，古巴政府已向在 该国运营的国际航空公司发出预警：由于美国的石油封锁，自9日起古巴航空燃油将耗尽。 美国总统特朗普1月29日签署行政令，威胁对向古巴提供石油的国家输美商品加征从价关税。古巴政府 本周宣布了一项应急计划，试图在不进口原油及成品油的情况下维持运转，措施包括停止柴油销售、缩 短医院和政府机构工作时间、关闭部分酒店等。 ...

Core Viewpoint - India has chosen to abandon its oil cooperation with Iran, which has pleased Trump, who is now urging China to follow suit and recognize the situation [1][12]. Group 1: India's Oil Decisions - India has maintained its oil transactions with Russia for a long time but has quickly yielded on the Iran issue due to pressure from U.S. sanctions [1][9]. - The decision to purchase oil from Venezuela instead of Iran is seen as a reflection of the success of U.S. policy, with Trump inviting China to adopt a similar approach [3][12]. - India's leadership faced a dilemma between the attractive pricing of Russian oil and the need to avoid conflict with the U.S., ultimately leading to a shift in its oil sourcing strategy [9][10]. Group 2: U.S. and Venezuela Relations - Venezuela has provided 50 million barrels of high-quality oil to the U.S., generating $5.2 billion in revenue, with an agreement for profits to be shared between the U.S. and Venezuela [1]. - Trump criticized Venezuela for selling oil to China at unfair prices, claiming that U.S. control would adjust prices to international market levels [3][5]. - The U.S. has implemented significant military presence in the Caribbean to exert pressure on Venezuela, which raises concerns about international law violations [5]. Group 3: China's Position - Venezuela's oil constitutes only 4% of China's total oil imports, indicating minimal impact on China's energy strategy [7]. - China has not increased its oil imports from Venezuela following Trump's announcement, suggesting that Trump's call for China to follow India's lead may lack significance [7][12]. - China maintains a strong economic position and trade autonomy, allowing it to withstand U.S. pressures without compromising its relationships with other countries, particularly in the energy sector [12].

首席点评：央行继续增持黄金 2 月 7 日，中国人民银行更新的官方储备资产数据显示，截至 2026 年 1 月末， 中国黄金储备为 7419 万盎司(约 2307.57 吨)，较 2025 年 12 月末的 7415 万盎 司(约 2306.32 吨)增加 4 万盎司(1.24 吨)，为连续第 15 个月增持黄金。央行 15 个月共增持黄金 139 万盎司(约 43.23 吨)。其中，2025 年全年，中国黄金储备 增加了 86 万盎司(约 26.75 吨)。美国上周初请失业金人数录得 23.1 万人，预估 21.2 万人，前值 20.9 万人。美国 1 月 24 日当周持续申领失业救济人数为 184.4 万人，预估 185 万人，失业数据上升显示经济放缓风险增加，可能减少能源需求， 对液化石油气现货价格构成利空。2 月 6 日周五举行的伊美谈判因双方在关于谈 判内容是否只聚焦核问题方面存在分歧，伊朗问题反复，油价受消息面影响波动。 美国政府正准备发布一项通用许可证，允许企业在委内瑞拉开采石油，委内瑞拉 原油产量存增长预期。 重点品种：贵金属、原油、铜 贵金属：贵金属有所反弹。此前贵金属巨震，主要受美联储主席 ...

Group 1: Overall Market Analysis - The global macro - market last week was affected by multiple variables. The reconstruction of global liquidity expectations, policy and event disturbances in core economies, and the intensification of monetary policy differentiation were the core logics. Four major variables, including the Japanese election, weak US employment, China's pro - growth policies, and Australia's interest rate hike, dominated the market game, leading to high volatility in multiple sectors [2] - Short - term market trends will be verified by a series of events such as the Japanese election results, US key economic data, and China's inflation and consumption performance. The long - term trend is related to the US AI strategy, China's industrial and investment development, global key raw material strategic reserve logic, and the background of persistent differential inflation and monetary policies [2] Group 2: Financial Futures Macro - In the Japanese House of Representatives election on February 8, the ruling coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party won a majority of seats. The Bank of Canada Governor said that if Canada loses preferential trade access to the US through the USMCA, its economy may fall into recession, but this is not the central bank's baseline scenario. The Japanese Finance Minister said it's not easy to use foreign exchange reserves for tax cuts and spending, and the Japanese Prime Minister will consider reducing the consumption tax [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The RMB appreciated against the US dollar in the previous trading day. The RMB's short - term movement against the US dollar is affected by seasonal settlement demand and the US dollar index. Exporters are advised to lock in forward settlement at around 7.01, and importers can adopt a rolling purchase strategy at around 6.93 [3][4] Stock Index - The stock index fluctuated and adjusted last trading day. Short - term (before the Spring Festival), it is expected to remain volatile, and large - cap stock indices may be relatively dominant. Attention should be paid to the release of US non - farm payroll data and domestic CPI data [5] Treasury Bonds - Last week, bond futures rose overall. Whether the bond market can continue to rise this week depends on whether trading sentiment can be maintained. It is recommended to shift mid - line long positions during intraday adjustments and take profits on the March contract at high prices [6] Group 3: Commodities New Energy Lithium Carbonate - Last week, lithium carbonate futures prices fell sharply. Before the Spring Festival, downstream replenishment is over, and it is recommended to hold a light or empty position during the holiday. High volatility in the lithium carbonate futures market presents an opportunity to sell volatility [9] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a situation of weak supply and demand. In February, production schedules will decline, and inventory reduction is the main task. Industrial silicon prices may continue to decline [11][12] Non - ferrous Metals Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to fluctuate and adjust, with a support level of 23000 - 23500. It is recommended to build long positions or sell options at the support level. Alumina is expected to be weak in the long - term, but there are short - term disturbances. Cast aluminum alloy has a strong follow - up to aluminum, and attention can be paid to its price difference with aluminum [15][16] Copper - Copper prices had high volatility last week. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to focus on short - term range operations and be cautious about chasing up or selling down [19] Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated narrowly. Before the Spring Festival, supply and demand are both weak. It is recommended to pay attention to this week's employment data, as weak data may support prices [20] Nickel - Stainless Steel - Nickel - stainless steel had a deep correction this week, mainly affected by the overall market and macro - level sentiment. The supply and demand are both weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the quota release rhythm and Indonesian downstream layout [20][21] Tin - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and attention should be paid to this week's US employment and CPI data. Weak data may support non - ferrous metal prices [23] Lead - Lead prices are expected to be weakly volatile, with support at the bottom but lack of upward drive before the Spring Festival [23] Oils and Fats, and Feeds Oilseeds - The external market of soybeans is strong, while the domestic market is weak. It is recommended to lightly try long positions, but the upside is limited [24][25] Oils and Fats - Before the Spring Festival, funds flowed out of the oils and fats market, which is expected to be weakly volatile. It is not recommended to short, and selling put options can be considered [26] Energy and Oil and Gas Fuel Oil - Fuel oil is operating weakly. Although the supply shortage has been alleviated, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to geopolitical uncertainties [28] Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a low cracking spread. The supply is abundant, the demand is stable, and the inventory decline has a slight positive impact on the cracking spread [29][30] Asphalt - Asphalt's upward trend is weak. Before the Spring Festival, demand drops to zero. The future trend will follow the cost - end crude oil, and attention should be paid to geopolitical factors and inventory pressure after the Spring Festival [30][31] Precious Metals Platinum & Palladium - Platinum and palladium prices fluctuated sharply. In the long - term, the bull market foundation remains. High volatility requires attention to position control [33][35] Gold & Silver - Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply last week. In the short - term, operation is difficult, but the long - term upward trend remains. It is recommended to buy on dips in installments and control positions. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to hold a light or empty position [36][39] Chemicals Pulp - Offset Paper - Pulp futures prices are expected to continue to decline. It is recommended to partially close short positions, conduct short - term range trading, or lightly try short - term long - buying strategies. Offset paper futures can return to range trading [41][42] LPG - LPG prices are affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is neutral, and the demand from PDH is low. Attention should be paid to the change of warehouse receipts [43][44] PTA - PX - PX - PTA's valuation is returning to the fundamentals. PX is in short supply in the second quarter. It is recommended to buy on dips. PTA's high processing fees are difficult to maintain, and it is recommended to shrink the processing fees on the disk [45][48] MEG - Bottle Chips - Ethylene glycol's demand weakens seasonally. The supply - demand balance improves in the first half of the year. It is expected to fluctuate widely with the macro - environment, and attention should be paid to geopolitical risks [49][50] Methanol - It is recommended to hold an empty position during the Spring Festival. Methanol prices follow geopolitical and non - ferrous metal trends, and the trading is difficult [51][53] Plastic PP - Polyolefin prices are affected by macro - sentiment and cost. PE shows a trend of decreasing supply and increasing demand, and PP shows a pattern of decreasing supply and demand. Short - term attention should be paid to macro - atmosphere changes and the Iran - US conflict [54][55] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene's supply increases and demand is flat. Styrene's supply will increase in February, and demand will decline during the Spring Festival. Short - term geopolitical factors and exports support prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56][57] Urea - Urea is in a stage of over - supply. The 05 contract has an expected price increase, but the short - term price may correct. It is recommended to close long positions and hold an empty position during the Spring Festival [58][59] Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash is oscillating weakly, and the supply is expected to remain high in the long - term. Glass has a weak supply - demand pattern and is at risk of high intermediate inventory [60][63] Propylene - Propylene prices are affected by cost, supply and demand, and market sentiment. The short - term fundamentals provide some support, but attention should be paid to risks [63][64] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - rolled Coil - Rebar's inventory is accumulating, and hot - rolled coil's inventory is changing from decreasing to increasing. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to whether they break through the lower limit of the oscillation range [65][67] Iron Ore - The supply and demand of iron ore are both weak. The port inventory is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously before the Spring Festival [68] Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal supply is seasonally shrinking, and coke's supply and demand are both recovering. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption rhythm of mines and steel mills [69][70] Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese are in an oscillating pattern between cost support and downstream inventory pressure. Ferrosilicon's fundamentals are slightly better [71] Agricultural and Soft Commodities Live Pigs - The live pig market is operating weakly. It is recommended to short the 03 contract and long the 05 contract in terms of the spread strategy [73][74] Cotton - Cotton prices are affected by macro - sentiment. The domestic cotton price is restricted by the internal - external price difference. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and attention should be paid to downstream imports and new orders [75][76] Sugar - The domestic sugar demand is average, and the international raw sugar price is weak, dragging down the domestic sugar price. The upside space is limited [77][78] Eggs - The pre - holiday stocking demand for eggs has ended. It is recommended to sell the JD2603 - C - 3100 call option [79][80] Apples - Apple's pre - holiday stocking is coming to an end. The consumption peak logic is almost realized. The price is supported by delivery contradictions and is likely to rise rather than fall [81][82] Red Dates - Red dates' pre - holiday purchase and sales are slowing down. In the short - term, the price may remain low - oscillating, and in the long - term, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure [83]