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沥青日报:震荡上行-20251217
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 11:16
Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt supply is decreasing, with the production expected to decline in December, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is rising but still near the lowest level in recent years. The demand is weakening as road construction in the north is ending due to cold weather, and the increase in the south is limited. The crude oil price is weakly oscillating, and concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports may affect asphalt production. The market is cautious, and it is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate [1]. Content Summary by Related Parts Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. In December, the expected domestic asphalt production is 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year decrease. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 9.69% week - on - week to 253,400 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Demand: Last week, most of the downstream asphalt industries' operating rates declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 27% due to capital and weather constraints. With the north's cold weather, road construction is ending, and the overall demand is average [1]. - Crude Oil: Iraqi oil fields are resuming production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, sanctions on Venezuela may affect asphalt production, and the discount of Venezuelan diluted asphalt has narrowed [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 3.58% to 3,012 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,855 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,014 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,592 to 235,465 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 102 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than last year's same period, at a multi - year low [4]. - Demand - related Investment: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to November, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of the week of December 12, most of the downstream asphalt industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 2 percentage points to 27% due to capital and weather constraints [4]. - Social Financing: From January to November, the social financing stock increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with the growth rate remaining the same as that from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 12, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [4].
石油化工行业 2026 年度投资策略:自上而下,否极泰来
Changjiang Securities· 2025-12-17 11:03
Group 1 - The report forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will fluctuate around $60-65 per barrel in 2026, with potential short-term increases due to geopolitical factors [3][6][7] - The midstream and downstream sectors are expected to improve, driven by a global economic resonance from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply-side contractions due to anti-involution policies [3][7] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in cyclical growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors [3][8] Group 2 - In 2025, oil prices are projected to oscillate between $60-70 per barrel, with a slight recovery in midstream and downstream sectors [6][7] - The report outlines a three-phase oil price trend in 2025, characterized by initial declines, a subsequent recovery, and a final drop influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production decisions [6][27] - Natural gas prices are expected to decrease due to increased LNG supply, with the JKM and TTF gas prices showing a downward trend compared to the previous year [6][30] Group 3 - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with structural improvements in end-consumer demand, particularly in the textile sector, although domestic consumption remains under pressure [7][56] - The report anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity as global interest rate cuts stimulate economic activity [7][8] - Key investment themes include cyclical opportunities, growth stocks, and companies benefiting from the coal chemical investment cycle [8][9] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality growth stocks, particularly in the coal chemical sector and energy companies with stable cash flows and high dividend yields [8][9] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and high-dividend firms like CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [8][9] - The report also notes the expected benefits for companies involved in high-end material imports and coal chemical equipment investments as the domestic coal chemical investment cycle unfolds [8][9]
中国石油化工股份12月17日斥资315.34万港元回购71.2万股
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 10:42
中国石油化工股份(00386)发布公告,于2025年12月17日,该公司斥资315.34万港元回购71.2万股股份, 每股回购价格为4.32-4.45港元。 ...
中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)12月17日耗资315.3万港元回购71.2万股
Ge Long Hui· 2025-12-17 10:07
中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)12月17日耗资315.3万港元回购71.2万股 中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)12月 16日耗资512.8万港元回购118万股 相关事件 格隆汇12月17日丨中国石油化工股份(00386.HK)发布公告,2025年12月17日耗资315.3万港元回购71.2万 股,回购价格每股4.32-4.45港元。 ...
中国石油化工股份(00386)12月17日斥资315.34万港元回购71.2万股
智通财经网· 2025-12-17 10:00
智通财经APP讯,中国石油化工股份(00386)发布公告,于2025年12月17日,该公司斥资315.34万港元回 购71.2万股股份,每股回购价格为4.32-4.45港元。 ...
一边承压下行,一边逆势企稳?西南汽柴油市场“冰火两重天”
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-17 09:59
来源:中国能源网 近期,国际原油市场因乌克兰和平协议的达成迎来持续性下跌,价格创下2021年以来的最低水平,国内 成品油市场随即承压,本轮零售价下调预期强烈,为西南地区汽柴油市场带来显著利空影响。然而,在 整体下行的市场基调下,西南地区内部行情呈现出明显分化特征:广西,四川,贵州等地区汽柴油价格 持续走弱,云南市场却逆势企稳甚至小幅上涨,这种"同域不同势"的格局,背后是成本传导、供需博弈 与区域资源配置的多重作用。 一、国际原油下跌:市场下行的核心导火索 近期国际原油价格连续下跌是国内成品油市场调整的核心驱动力。随着乌克兰局势降温,此前支撑油价 的地缘政治溢价快速消退,国际油价连续多日下探,创下近四年新低。根据国内现行成品油定价机制, 截至12月中旬,本计价周期原油变化率负向区间延伸。据金联创测算,截至12月17日第七个工作日,参 考原油品种均价为59.37美元/桶,变化率为-2.67%,对应的国内汽柴油零售价应下调155元/吨。12月22 日调价窗口开启后,国内零售价再次下调已成大概率事件,预计将下调220元/吨。这种成本端的下行压 力直接传导至炼厂环节。全国地区炼厂原油采购成本同步降低,为成品油价格下调提 ...
【图】2025年1-9月江苏省石脑油产量数据分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-12-17 07:17
2025年9月石脑油产量统计: 石脑油产量:32.8 万吨 同比增长:32.7% 增速较上一年同期变化:高25.8个百分点 摘要:【图】2025年1-9月江苏省石脑油产量数据分析 石脑油产量:316.0 万吨 同比增长:28.6% 据统计,2025年9月江苏省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量与上年同期相比增长了32.7%,达32.8万吨,增 速较上一年同期高25.8个百分点,继续保持增长,增速较同期全国高33.1个百分点,约占同期全国规模 以上企业石脑油产量667.4万吨的比重为4.9%。 详见下图: 图1:江苏省石脑油产量分月(当月值)统计图 2025年1-9月石脑油产量统计: 增速较上一年同期变化:高27.6个百分点 据统计,2025年1-9月,江苏省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量与上年同期相比增长了28.6%,达316.0万 吨,增速较上一年同期高27.6个百分点,继续保持增长,增速较同期全国高29.2个百分点,约占同期全 国规模以上企业石脑油产量5951.8万吨的比重为5.3%。详见下图: 图2:江苏省石脑油产量分月(累计值)统计图 注:主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位,即年主营业务收入200 ...
纯苯、苯乙烯日报:纯苯到港承压库存走高,苯乙烯低供去库支撑震荡-20251217
Tong Hui Qi Huo· 2025-12-17 06:31
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is under short - term pressure, with high domestic arrivals and inventory accumulation. Overseas, there is room for the price difference between the US and South Korea to repair. The supply side has shown negative feedback, but it has limited ability to offset the arrival pressure. The demand side is in the off - season, and downstream overall starts are declining continuously [2]. - Styrene maintains a pattern of low start - up and inventory reduction. Short - term supply tightening supports the price, but the demand is in the seasonal off - season, and the pull on the price increase is limited. It may maintain a volatile trend in the short term [3]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary Fundamentals - On December 16, the main contract of styrene closed up 0.09% at 6,493 yuan/ton, and the main contract of pure benzene closed down 0.15% at 5,440 yuan/ton. The closing price of Brent crude oil was 56.8 US dollars/barrel (- 0.6 US dollars/barrel), and the main contract of WTI crude oil closed at 60.6 US dollars/barrel (- 0.5 US dollars/barrel). The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,295 yuan/ton (- 20 yuan/ton) [2]. - Styrene port inventory was 14.7 tons (- 1.4 tons), and pure benzene port inventory was 26.0 tons (+ 3.6 tons). The weekly output of styrene was 34.2 tons (+ 0.7 tons), and the factory capacity utilization rate was 68.3% (- 0.6%). Among the downstream 3S, the EPS capacity utilization rate was 53.8% (- 2.6%), the ABS capacity utilization rate was 70.5% (+ 2.2%), and the PS capacity utilization rate was 58.3% (- 0.7%) [2]. Views - Pure benzene: The short - term pressure on the fundamentals of pure benzene is mainly on the real - time side. The domestic arrival volume remains high, and the inventory in the main port accumulates rapidly. The supply side has negative feedback, but the demand side is in the off - season, and downstream starts are decreasing [2]. - Styrene: The styrene market continues the pattern of low start - up and inventory reduction. Short - term supply tightening supports the price, but the demand is in the off - season, and the cost support is limited. It may maintain a volatile trend [3]. 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On December 16, the main contract of styrene futures increased by 0.09% to 6,493 yuan/ton, and the spot price increased by 0.09% to 6,780 yuan/ton. The main contract of pure benzene futures decreased by 0.15% to 5,440 yuan/ton, and the spot price in East China decreased by 0.38% to 5,295 yuan/ton. The prices of pure benzene in South Korea FOB, the US FOB, and China CFR remained unchanged [5]. - The spread between domestic pure benzene and CFR decreased by 4.33% to - 378.6 yuan/ton, and the spread between East China and Shandong of pure benzene decreased by 133.33% to - 5 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil decreased by 1.08% to 56.8 US dollars/ton, and the price of WTI crude oil decreased by 0.92% to 60.6 US dollars/ton. The price of naphtha remained unchanged [5]. Styrene and Pure Benzene Output and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, the output of styrene in China increased by 2.32% to 34.2 tons, and the output of pure benzene decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 tons. The port inventory of styrene in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 tons, and the factory inventory of domestic styrene decreased by 7.19% to 17.6 tons. The national port inventory of pure benzene increased by 36.59% to 22.4 tons [6]. Capacity Utilization Rate - From November 28 to December 5, among the downstream of pure benzene, the capacity utilization rate of styrene increased by 1.56% to 68.9%, the capacity utilization rate of caprolactam decreased by 7.53% to 79.2%, the capacity utilization rate of phenol increased by 0.57% to 81.7%, and the capacity utilization rate of aniline increased by 0.04% to 77.2%. Among the downstream of styrene, the capacity utilization rate of EPS increased by 1.61% to 56.4%, the capacity utilization rate of ABS decreased by 2.90% to 68.3%, and the capacity utilization rate of PS increased by 1.40% to 59.0% [7]. 3. Industry News - Canada provided an additional 235 million Canadian dollars in aid to Ukraine [8]. - The ADP employment in the US in November decreased by 32,000, falling short of market expectations [8]. - Fitch lowered the oil price expectations from 2025 to 2027, reflecting the market oversupply [10]. - Despite US pressure, Venezuela's daily oil exports in November exceeded 900,000 barrels [10]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that there were signs of weakness in some areas of the US economy and interest rate cuts were needed [10]. - From November 28 to the week ending on that day, the EIA crude oil inventory in the US increased by 574,000 barrels, and the EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 250,000 barrels [9]. 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on the prices of pure benzene and styrene, the spread between styrene and pure benzene, the import and domestic costs of styrene's pure benzene, the inventories of styrene ports, factories, and ABS, the port inventory of pure benzene, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [15][20][24][30][31]
首套大型硫黄回收国产化装置完成标定
Zhong Guo Hua Gong Bao· 2025-12-17 06:11
Group 1 - The successful commissioning of the 11th sulfur recovery unit at Zhenhai Refining marks a significant breakthrough in the domestic development of sulfur recovery technology, achieving full-chain autonomy from process design to core equipment [1] - The unit has been operating stably for over 5 months, with a sulfur recovery rate of 99.99% and energy consumption significantly lower than design expectations, while pollutant emissions exceed national standards [1] - The project involved optimizing system and equipment design, allowing stable operation below 10% of design load, and achieving a reduction of approximately 30 kilograms of standard oil per ton in energy consumption compared to similar units [2] Group 2 - The innovative design of the multifunctional desulfurization tower integrates multiple functions, effectively saving space and investment [2] - The project successfully developed a full range of domestically produced burners, breaking the long-standing reliance on imported core combustion equipment [2] - The company has focused on sulfur recovery since the 1990s, designing over 30 related units and holding more than 30 patents, establishing a complete technical system represented by the third-generation GD10 technology [2]
【图】2025年1-8月宁夏回族自治区石脑油产量统计分析
Chan Ye Diao Yan Wang· 2025-12-17 05:14
摘要:【图】2025年1-8月宁夏回族自治区石脑油产量统计分析 2025年1-8月石脑油产量分析: 据国家统计局数据,在2025年的前8个月,宁夏回族自治区规模以上工业企业石脑油产量累计达到了 101.7万吨,与2024年同期的数据相比,增长了2.2%,增速较2024年同期低4.1个百分点,增速放缓,增 速较同期全国高2.7个百分点,约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量5283.7万吨的比重为1.9%。 图表:宁夏回族自治区石脑油产量分月(累计值)统计 2025年8月石脑油产量分析: 单独看2025年8月份,宁夏回族自治区规模以上工业企业石脑油产量达到了12.4万吨,与2024年同期的 数据相比,8月份的产量增长了2.6%,增速较2024年同期高12.7个百分点,增速较同期全国高4.8个百分 点,约占同期全国规模以上企业石脑油产量661.5万吨的比重为1.9%。 图表:宁夏回族自治区石脑油产量分月(当月值)统计 注:主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位,即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油市场调研与发展前景 化工发展现状及前景预测 日 ...