2025 年 08 月 03 日 莫愁前路 本周上证指数跌 0.94%，沪深 300 跌 1.75%，中证 500 跌 1.37%，创业板指跌 0.74%，恒生指数跌 3.47%。价值风格表现弱于成长风格。本周全 A 日均交易额 18096 亿，环比上周有所下降。本周市场虽然有所回调，但偏股混合型基金指数回 撤仅有 0.39%，机构重仓板块和反杠铃策略继续跑赢市场，符合我们在此前周报《最 佳的选择："创"》和《首次向杠铃超额发起挑战！》的判断：当前以银行-微盘为 代表的极致杠铃策略虽尚存一定绝对收益空间，但超额有效性在下滑，同时以低估 值大盘成长为代表"中间资产"正在出现绝对收益和超额收益的回摆，这点暗示尤其 在今年三季度创业板指+科技科创的占优表现是大概率且可持续的。 对于本周大盘见顶小幅回调，我们认为主要源于海内外重要事件落地后资金止盈的 影响，但科技成长板块的赚钱效应仍存：一方面是 7 月政治局会议的召开对"反内 卷"进行了纠偏，大宗商品和反内卷品种的定价回归理性；另一方面是创新药和光 模块等产业趋势板块，受到海外需求的进一步提振，在本周继续保持强势表现。中 期来看，在中长期资金持续流入稳定市场的背景下 ...

Domestic Finance - The People's Bank of China continues to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, aiming to support economic growth by lowering reserve requirements and interest rates [1] - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration will resume VAT collection on interest income from newly issued government bonds starting August 8, 2025, while previously issued bonds will remain exempt until maturity [1] Industry Development - Eight departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have issued a plan for the digital transformation of the machinery industry, targeting the establishment of at least 200 exemplary smart factories by 2027 [2] - By 2030, the plan aims for significant digital upgrades across major enterprises in the machinery sector, with a target of 60% of companies achieving a maturity level of two or above in intelligent manufacturing [2] Capital Market - CITIC Securities emphasizes a focus on AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, resources, and the STAR Market, indicating a trend towards concentrated investment in high-consensus sectors rather than low-positioned stocks [5] Energy Sector - Leshan Electric announced a price adjustment for residential gas sales, effective September 1, 2025, with increases ranging from 0.10 to 0.15 yuan per cubic meter across different pricing tiers, expected to boost the company's gas business revenue by approximately 2.7 million yuan in 2025 [6] Technology Development - Zhejiang University has made a breakthrough in neuromorphic computing with the launch of the Darwin Monkey, a brain-like computer with over 2 billion neurons, marking a significant advancement in the field [7] Legal and Regulatory - A Shanghai court sentenced 14 individuals for infringing on Huawei's trade secrets, with penalties including prison terms and fines totaling 13.5 million yuan [8] International Finance - President Trump has demanded that 17 major pharmaceutical companies reduce drug prices within 60 days, threatening regulatory action if they fail to comply [10]

央行：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策 8月1日，中国人民银行召开2025年下半年工作会议暨常态长效推动中央巡视整改工作推进会。总结2025年以来工作，分析当前金融形 势，部署下一阶段工作。 会议要求，一是继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策。综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕，引导金融机构保持信贷合理增长，使 社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。抓好各项货币政策措施的执行，畅通货币政策传导，提升货 币政策实施效果。盘活存量，用好增量，提高资金使用效率。强化利率政策执行和监督。保持汇率弹性，强化预期引导，防范汇率超调 风险。 二是突出服务实体经济重点方向。做好金融"五篇大文章"，指导金融机构提升金融服务专业化精细化水平。用好科技创新和技术改造再 贷款政策，推动科技型中小企业贷款较快增长，加大"两重""两新"等重点领域的融资支持力度。支持化解重点产业结构性矛盾，促进产 业提质升级。合理保障外贸企业融资需求。加强应收账款电子凭证业务监管与风险防范。 三是防范化解重点领域金融风险。持续做好金融支持地方政府融资平台化债工作。有序推进重点地区和机构风险处置。进一步加强风险 监测评估和宏观审慎管理 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 08 03 年 月 日 电子 周观点：从巨头财报周看最新 Capex CSP 相继上调资本开支指引，高度重视 AI 产业链变革及业绩爆发机遇。 谷歌、Meta、亚马逊相继上调全年资本开支预期，谷歌上调 25 年 100 亿美元资本开支至 850 亿美元，Meta 上调 25 年资本开支预期至 660- 720 亿美元，亚马逊表示目前需求已经超过了供给，上调 25 年资本开 支至 1200 亿美元左右，商业模式角度，微软 Azure 连续大幅超预期， 未来资本开支更多投向短周期资产，我们认为主要系看到了 AI 大范围 的需求以及商务模式正逐步跑通。我们认为目前 AI 大时代已至，大趋 势下，把握行业大 beta，高度重视 AI 产业链变革及业绩爆发机遇。 具体来看： 1）Meta 再次上调资本开支预期至 660-720 亿美元，2026 年预计 Capex 继续大幅增长：本季度资本开支 170 亿美元，2025 年 Capex 指引 660-720 亿美元（前值 640-720 亿），连续上调资本开支，2026 年预计 Capex 继续大幅增长，以 ...

在投资领域，沃伦·巴菲特的名字几乎家喻户晓。他被广泛尊称为"股神"，其每一条投资决策和发言都能够引发金融界的广泛关注。在接受《日本经济新 闻》的采访时，巴菲特发表了一番令人深思的言论："你会有一种非常强烈的感觉，20年后、50年后，日本和美国仍然会变得更大。"这番话不仅反映了他对 未来的信心，也展现了他对这两个国家经济基本面的深刻洞察。巴菲特是价值投资的坚定支持者，他更加注重企业的长期成长潜力与国家经济的稳健基础。 在巴菲特的眼中，美国和日本都有着一些独特的优势，能够在未来几十年继续保持全球经济的强大影响力。首先是美国，作为世界上最大经济体的美国，其 雄厚的经济实力不容小觑。美国的创新能力尤为突出，特别是在科技领域，一直处于全球领先地位。硅谷被誉为全球科技创新的中心，像谷歌、苹果、亚马 逊这些全球知名的大公司都源自这里。它们不仅推动了美国经济的繁荣，还在全球范围内产生了巨大影响，巩固了美国在全球市场的统治地位。巴菲特曾多 次表示，美国的创新能力是其经济持续增长的重要支撑。 与美国不同的是，日本的经济形势在过去几十年中显得有些低迷。自1990年代初泡沫经济破裂以来，日本经济一直陷入长期的通货紧缩和增长停滞。但巴 ...

在TikTok的电商业务发展过程中，需要服务于多元文化背景下的消费者，如美国、英国、东南亚等，这意味着业务场景的高度多元化。尤其对于物流这一 重线下体验的场景，对设计师带来了很大的挑战。 本次专访，我们邀请到字节跳动体验设计师王琛女士，就如何进行职业生涯规划、如何进行就职前的准备、作品集该如何准备以及面试前如何准备等问题 进行了详细的解答。 Q:您是如何进行职业生涯规划的？ 可能这个就跟我的入行时间，要从那个时候讲起。我大概是2009年上的本科，其实已经蛮古早了。 在我当年读书时，其实整个体验设计行业或者说至少在国内，是远远还没有到今天的这个程度的。包括说那个时候就是，我学的本科专业叫工业设计，包 括说现在其实很多国内相关专业，它可能还会叫工业设计这个名字。 其实最一开始的时候，就是兴趣导向，当时我本科是在浙大，我们有一个比较有趣的制度，就是其实在刚入学的时候，大一你是没有一个专业的，然后大 家通过一年的时间，去探索说你可能对什么感兴趣，在大二开学的时候完成正式的专业选择。 其实在当时的一个语境下，可能从事当时还是工业设计，是一个听起来比较好玩，但是好像就不太能看得到什么行业前景的一个情况，然后当时可能家长 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Yiming has launched another successful app, Hongguo Short Drama, which has rapidly gained popularity, reaching nearly 200 million monthly active users and generating significant revenue within a short time frame [1][2]. Group 1: Growth and Market Position - Hongguo Short Drama was officially launched in August 2023 and has seen explosive growth, increasing from 20 million monthly active users to 199.2 million in just over a year [4][5]. - The app's growth rate surpasses that of Douyin, which took nearly two years to reach 100 million monthly active users [5]. - As of December 2023, Hongguo Short Drama's monthly active users reached 20 million, and by September 2024, it had surpassed 120 million, indicating a rapid user acquisition strategy [5]. Group 2: Success Factors - The success of Hongguo Short Drama can be attributed to a dual strategy of algorithm-driven user engagement and a free content model that eliminates payment barriers for users [8][9]. - The app leverages Douyin's ecosystem, using recommendation algorithms to direct users to short dramas, effectively tapping into the existing user base of 119 million overlapping users [8]. - The advertising revenue model has proven effective, with ad revenue surpassing 300 million yuan by November 2024, creating a win-win situation for the platform, creators, and viewers [9]. Group 3: Strategic Positioning - Hongguo Short Drama represents a significant shift in the content industry, reducing production costs and time compared to traditional media, with short dramas often costing only 100,000 yuan to produce [10]. - The app's strategy involves filling the user engagement gap left by Douyin's growth plateau by enhancing content depth and creating a supply-demand loop among platforms, creators, and advertisers [11]. - ByteDance is expanding its short drama portfolio with additional apps like "Muyu" and "Xianling," targeting different market segments and user demographics [13][14]. Group 4: Market Ambitions - The short drama market is projected to exceed 60 billion yuan by 2025 and potentially reach 100 billion yuan by 2027, with Hongguo Short Drama positioned as a market leader [15]. - ByteDance's comprehensive strategy aims to create a new entertainment ecosystem that integrates traffic, content, tools, and algorithms, with Hongguo Short Drama serving as a foundational element of this vision [18].

Core Insights - The 22nd ChinaJoy has commenced in Shanghai, attracting 743 exhibitors, including 237 foreign companies from 37 countries, accounting for 31.9% of total participation [1] - The event showcases a total exhibition area of 110,000 square meters dedicated to BTOC interactive entertainment, featuring over 280 companies [1] Group 1: Game Companies Participation - Major gaming companies like Tencent, NetEase, Century Huatong, Perfect World, and Giant Network have set up engaging booths with game trials, drawing significant player interest [3] - Tencent is showcasing 17 products, occupying nearly half of the N4 hall, with popular titles like "League of Legends: Battle Card" and "Valorant: Source Action" available for immersive trials [3] - NetEase is presenting 45 games, including six unique titles in a dedicated area, with "Yanyun Sixteen Sounds" gaining substantial popularity since its launch [5] Group 2: New and Classic Game Releases - Century Huatong is featuring 13 premium games, including classic IPs like "Legend of Blood" and new titles such as "Hungry Wilderness" [7] - Giant Network is debuting new games like "Supernatural Action Team" and showcasing classic IP collaborations, with "Journey" celebrating its tenth anniversary [9] - Perfect World is presenting seven products across various genres, including popular titles like "DOTA2" and its new game "Yihuan," which recently completed its second test [11] Group 3: Broader Industry Presence - The event has expanded beyond gaming, with internet giants like Baidu and Alibaba showcasing their services, indicating the growing influence of ChinaJoy beyond the gaming sector [3][17] - Hardware manufacturers are also prominent, with innovations like Samsung's 27" UHD 165Hz naked-eye 3D gaming monitor attracting attention [17] - A new "Smart Entertainment Robot" theme area has been established, featuring robot soccer competitions, highlighting the event's diversification into robotics and AI [18][19]

"印度是我的一部分，无论走到哪里，我都带着它"，来自南印度泰米尔纳德邦的桑达尔·皮查伊曾动情地说。53岁的皮查 伊出身于工薪家庭，在他12岁那年，身为电气工程师的父亲在家中安装了第一部固定电话。这台旋转拨号电话机激发了 他对技术的热爱，激励他后来考入印度理工学院（IIT）。 大学毕业后，父亲用一年的积蓄，为皮查伊买下飞往美国的机票。这个在斯坦福大学攻读硕士学位的青年，如今已是科 技精英。2015年，皮查伊成为谷歌公司首席执行官（CEO），现任谷歌母公司"字母表"公司（Alphabet）CEO。 像皮查伊这样的顶尖印度人才很多选择留在海外，他的IIT校友中就至少有2万人在美国打拼。印度最需要的科技精英大 部分没能留在国内，这显然不利于"2047年发达印度"这一宏大目标的实现。 这些年来，莫迪政府为吸引人才回流制定了多项"引凤还巢"计划，虽取得了一定成效，但并未从根本上扭转人才外流的 趋势。而当下，美国重启特殊专业人员/临时工作签证（H-1B签证）限制，并出台学术干预政策，搅动了全球人才流动漩 涡，印度的"引凤还巢"计划或将迎来收获季。 顶尖的印度裔人才 从硅谷的科技丛林到巴黎的时尚殿堂，印度裔精英的身影无处不在 ...

转自：新华财经 新华财经上海8月3日电（葛佳明）本周（7月28日-8月1日），全球风险资产受美联储7月议息会议、美国通胀和就业数据影响而大 幅波动，全球各国股市多数承压下挫。美元指数一度大幅上行并重回100整数关口，现货黄金一度因美元走强而承压下跌，后因避 险情绪升温短线走强。 美股方面，美国7月非农新增就业低于预期，前两个月的数据合计大幅下修25.8万，引发市场对美国经济衰退担忧和美联储降息预 期升温，美股三大股指均大幅下挫， 标普500指数本周累计下跌2.36%；道琼斯工业平均指数本周累跌2.92%；纳斯达克指数本周 累跌2.17%；罗素2000指数本周累跌4.17%；恐慌指数VIX本周累计上涨36.70%。 欧股方面，欧洲各国股指多数下挫。欧洲STOXX 600指数本周累计下跌2.57%，德国DAX 30指数本周累计下跌3.27%，法国CAC 40指数本周累跌3.69%，英国富时100指数本周累跌0.57%。 亚太股市方面，日本央行维持政策利率0.5%不变，并大幅上调2025财年通胀预期0.6个百分点至2.7%，日本央行议息声明"偏鹰"但 日本央行行长表态"偏鸽"，日经225指数全周累计下挫1.58%， ...