核心产品国内商业化合作落地，看好未来 销售潜力 众生药业点评报告 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 张澄(分析师) | 010-58067988 | zhangcheng5@gtht.com | S0880525040130 | | 彭娉(分析师) | 021-23185619 | pengping@gtht.com | S0880525040080 | | 郑琴(分析师) | 021-23219808 | zhengqin@gtht.com | S0880525040108 | | 余文心(分析师) | 021-38676666 | yuwenxin@gtht.com | S0880525040111 | 本报告导读： 公司核心减重创新药产品 RAY1225 国内商业化权益授予齐鲁制药，合作总包金额 达 10 亿元，再度验证产品临床价值与未来商业化潜力。 投资要点： [Table_Market] 交易数据 | 52 周内股价区间(元) | 10.45-26.61 | | --- | --- | | 总市值(百 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing high volatility with a cooling market sentiment, as indicated by the recent adjustments in financing margin ratios and the focus on performance indicators as the annual report forecast period approaches [1][8]. Group 1: Market Trends - The A-share market has shown a high-level oscillation pattern, with previous leading sectors experiencing increased volatility [1][8]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission emphasized the need for timely counter-cyclical adjustments to prevent significant market fluctuations [1][8]. - The market is expected to shift focus from narrative-driven trends to performance-based evaluations as annual report forecasts are released [9][10]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Citic Securities suggests constructing portfolios based on "resources + traditional manufacturing pricing weight estimation," focusing on sectors like chemicals, non-ferrous metals, power equipment, and new energy [9]. - Investors are advised to increase allocations in non-bank sectors (securities, insurance) and consider high-growth sectors such as semiconductor equipment to enhance returns [9]. - Guotai Junan highlights the importance of focusing on sectors with high growth or recovery potential, particularly in technology and industries benefiting from price increases due to policy changes [15][16]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Multiple securities firms, including GF Securities and Industrial Securities, predict that the market will see opportunities from late January to mid-March, coinciding with the annual report forecast disclosures [10][11]. - The spring market rally is expected to continue, with structural adjustments rather than systemic risks being the primary concern [11][12]. - The market is anticipated to enter a phase of "spring excitement," focusing on companies with solid fundamentals and performance exceeding expectations [12][13]. Group 4: Sector Focus - The technology sector, particularly AI applications, is expected to shift from broad-based gains to a more focused performance on companies with strong fundamentals [16]. - The rise in commodity prices is seen as a significant trend, driven by global supply chain changes and resource revaluation, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and new energy materials being highlighted [16][15].

1月13日，记者从威海市新闻办召开的新闻发布会上获悉，"十四五"时期威海医保基金运行平稳， 职工、居民医保基金支撑能力均处于安全区间可持续运行。职工和居民医保政策范围内住院费用报销比 例分别稳定在80%和65%以上，重点救助对象住院医疗费用救助比例达到70%。市县两级服务大厅实现 省级标准化窗口全覆盖，全面构建起"15分钟医疗保障服务圈"。 "十四五"期间，威海全面建立门诊共济保障机制，将门诊费用纳入医保统筹支付范围，截至目前， 已享受门诊报销1169.18万人次，报销费用10.98亿元。大病保险与医疗救助托底功能稳固，职工大额医 疗费用最高补助比例为90%，对低保对象、特困人员等实施精准救助，五年来累计支付大病保险基金 6.09亿元、医疗救助资金2.08亿元。 威海在全省率先实现职工长期护理保险全覆盖，并开展居民试点，五年累计发放长护待遇1.3亿 元。持续加大生育保障力度，威海已将11项人工辅助生殖项目纳入医保支付范围，累计报销各项待遇 9.17亿元。 "十四五"期间，威海还推出城市定制型商业医疗保险"威你保"，凸显商业保险的补充保障作用，现 累计理赔10.41万人次，减轻群众负担1.17亿元。 威海积极落 ...

重点关注板块包括：半导体、AI、有色、汽车、人形机器人、核电、创新药、非银金融、商业航天、特高压等。 一、主动降温对跨年行情的影响 开年以来跨年行情愈演愈烈，资金踊跃进场，商业航天、AI应用等板块持续暴涨引发局部交易过热，上周主动降温后热点出现调整，部分投资者担忧这 会不会逆转跨年行情的格局。但是复盘以往案例，此举的目的是抑制疯牛可能产生的短期严重后果，长期大基调仍然较为积极，并且此次政策的实施更加 具有成熟度和前瞻性。整体来看，本次主动降温不影响跨年行情的整体格局，但是此前局部过热的情况可能会得到缓解，资金交易的方向或将出现一些变 化。 过往牛市中每次出现交易过热都会有降温政策，否则一旦市场形成疯牛后续容易引发更严重的后果。调控的节奏上，往往前期的调控只会引发市场短期下 跌，后续更多政策入场后累积影响越来越大才会引发市场大级别的调整，甚至逆转牛市格局。 中信建投证券发布研究报告称，开年以来A股跨年行情愈演愈烈，在上周主动降温后热点出现调整。复盘以往案例，此举的目的是抑制疯牛可能产生的短 期严重后果，长期大基调仍然较为积极，并且此次政策的实施更加具有成熟度和前瞻性。整体来看，本次主动降温不影响跨年行情的整体格 ...

Core Viewpoint - Investment examination teams are increasingly active in various regions, with over 60 companies participating in investment tours in Liaoning, reflecting a shift in entrepreneurs' investment criteria from seeking government incentives to valuing ecosystem building and fairness [3][4] Group 1: Investment Trends - Investment examination teams from the Yangtze River Delta and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area are exploring opportunities in provinces like Shaanxi, Zhejiang, and Jiangsu [3] - The 2025 Regional Equity Investment Vitality Index indicates that Guangdong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, and Beijing remain the top regions for investment due to their favorable policy environments and efficient service systems [3][4] Group 2: Ecosystem and Fairness - Companies are now prioritizing whether governments build ecosystems and ensure fairness over merely providing incentives [4] - Guangdong's approach to optimizing the business environment focuses on marketization, rule of law, and internationalization, which has made it a preferred destination for foreign investment [4] Group 3: Collaborative Efficiency - The focus of investment decisions is shifting from traditional industrial foundations to the importance of efficient collaboration within industrial ecosystems [6][8] - Localized supply chains significantly reduce operational costs, as seen in the furniture industry in Foshan, where over 80% of supply chain procurement is completed locally [7] Group 4: Market Potential and Resource Endowment - Large market spaces and unique resource endowments are becoming key advantages for attracting investment, with companies increasingly considering long-term market potential and resource integration capabilities [9][10] - Liaoning's rich land and marine resources, along with its port advantages, are attracting investments in renewable energy and pharmaceuticals [10][11] Group 5: Regional Competitive Advantages - Regions like Jiangsu and Zhejiang are leveraging their unique strengths, such as high-efficiency industrial clusters and vibrant digital economies, to attract investments [11] - Companies are encouraged to identify and capitalize on their local resources and market opportunities to transform their advantages into investment appeal and growth momentum [11]

Group 1 - The report highlights that since Q4 2025, the Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to the A-share market, with significant phase rotation characteristics observed [2][5] - The underperformance is attributed to liquidity pressure and a lack of strong industry momentum in the Hong Kong market, particularly in sectors that are thriving in the A-share market such as defense, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications [8][21] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is heavily concentrated in financial, software, internet, and pharmaceutical sectors, lacking representation in high-end manufacturing and defense industries, which are performing well in the A-share market [19][21] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong market could see a recovery in H1 2026 driven by three main factors: a potential dovish signal from the new Federal Reserve chairman, an expected recovery in profit growth for Hong Kong stocks, and accelerated commercialization of AI applications [30][31] - It is projected that the profit growth rate for Hong Kong stocks will enter a recovery phase in H1 2026, with expectations of a rebound in earnings for internet platforms and sustained high growth in sectors like information technology and healthcare [33][34] - The report emphasizes that the valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is attractive compared to A-shares, with leading companies in Hong Kong nearing similar valuations to their US counterparts, while benefiting from a larger domestic market for AI applications [37]

Market Review - The A-share market experienced a significant increase followed by a period of volatility, driven by a rapid rise in risk appetite among investors, particularly in small-cap and growth sectors. On January 14, the total trading volume across all A-shares reached a historic high of 3.99 trillion yuan, with margin financing balances hitting new records. However, regulatory adjustments to margin requirements led to a cooling off in trading activity, and the previously strong momentum in technology indices began to slow down. Commodities such as precious metals and crude oil saw price increases, while copper prices fluctuated at high levels and domestic coking coal prices declined. The US dollar index rose, and the offshore yuan appreciated against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - Regulatory measures aimed at "counter-cyclical adjustment" are expected to support a "slow bull" market for A-shares. Following a surge in trading activity and margin financing, regulators signaled a need to mitigate risks by increasing the minimum margin requirement from 80% to 100%. This is part of a broader strategy to maintain market stability and prevent excessive volatility. Despite these measures, the overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, supported by macroeconomic policies, long-term capital inflows, and a moderate recovery in corporate earnings. As the end of January approaches, the focus will shift to earnings forecasts, particularly in technology sectors and areas experiencing price increases [2][3]. Key Focus Areas - The spring market rally has seen a rapid increase in trading activity, but regulatory signals have shifted the Shanghai Composite Index from a one-sided rise to high-level fluctuations. Since the rally began on December 17, various sources of capital have entered the market, including institutional funds and foreign investments, leading to a peak trading volume of nearly 4 trillion yuan. The margin financing balance surpassed 2.7 trillion yuan, indicating potential overheating risks. Regulatory interventions have prompted a transition to a more stable trading environment, while the overall trading volume remains high, reflecting sustained investor confidence [1][2]. Risk Premium and Valuation - As of January 16, the equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index stood at 5.2%, close to the median level over the past decade. Compared to previous peaks in January 2018 and February 2021, the current ERP suggests that A-share valuations are relatively reasonable, although some sectors may be experiencing overheating. The sectors with the highest margin buying activity include electronics, power equipment, computers, military, and communications. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of reduced financing in high-volatility sectors [3][4]. Earnings Forecasts - The trend of a slow bull market for A-shares is expected to continue, with a focus on earnings forecasts as companies prepare to disclose their annual results. Macroeconomic policies are expected to support risk appetite, with the central bank implementing targeted monetary policies. The anticipated recovery in corporate earnings, particularly as the Producer Price Index (PPI) declines, will be crucial for market support. Key sectors to watch include technology, chemicals, and healthcare, especially those with high growth or turnaround potential in their earnings forecasts [4].

Major Developments - Four Seasons Pharmaceutical (00460) has received approval from the National Medical Products Administration for a new specification of its "Youthful Needle" product [1] - Jixing New Energy (03395) has obtained regulatory approval for a 9.6 MW natural gas power generation project and board approval for a new 75,000 tons/year liquefied natural gas project [1] - Tiangong International (00826) has signed an agreement for a joint laboratory focused on the research and development of high-end fusion metal materials, aiming to explore downstream applications of controllable nuclear fusion [1] - Huashang Energy (00206) has announced a strategic plan for the next five years (2026-2030), aiming to become a leading green energy and equipment service provider in China [1] - Tianyu Semiconductor (02658) has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with Qinghe Crystal to jointly develop bonding materials and technology iterations [1] - China Ruyi (00136) plans to invest approximately $14.2 million in AIsphere to explore innovative applications of artificial intelligence technology in film, streaming, and gaming content production and operations [1] Operating Performance - Shimao Group (00813) reported a cumulative contract sales total of approximately 23.953 billion yuan for 2025 [1] - China Shenhua (01088) expects coal sales volume to reach 431 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4% [1] - New China Life Insurance (01336) reported a cumulative original insurance premium income of 195.899 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15% [1] - Ronshine China (03301) anticipates a total contract sales amount of approximately 3.777 billion yuan for 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 50.96% [1] - Hu Shang Ayi (02589) has issued a profit warning, expecting a net profit for 2025 to be between 495 million and 525 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of approximately 50% to 60% [1] - TCL Electronics (01070) has issued a profit warning, expecting adjusted net profit for 2025 to be between 2.33 billion and 2.57 billion Hong Kong dollars, a year-on-year increase of approximately 45% to 60% [1]

Market Review - The A-share market experienced a significant increase followed by a period of volatility, with a notable rise in trading volume driven by a strong profit-making effect, particularly in small-cap and growth styles. On January 14, the total trading volume reached a historical high of 3.99 trillion yuan, with margin financing balances hitting new records. However, following regulatory adjustments to margin requirements, market activity showed signs of cooling, and the previously strong technology index began to stabilize [1][2]. Market Outlook - Regulatory measures aimed at "counter-cyclical adjustment" are expected to support a "slow bull" market for A-shares. The recent surge in trading activity has prompted regulators to signal a need for cooling, leading to a shift from a one-sided increase to high-level fluctuations in the Shanghai Composite Index. Despite this, the overall valuation of A-shares remains reasonable, supported by macro policies, medium to long-term capital inflows, and a mild recovery in corporate earnings. The upcoming earnings announcements in late January are likely to refocus investor attention on performance-driven sectors, particularly in technology and industries benefiting from price increases [2][3]. Counter-Cyclical Adjustment Policies - The recent increase in the minimum margin requirement for financing from 80% to 100% is part of a broader strategy to prevent systemic risks in the market. The regulatory emphasis on maintaining market stability and preventing extreme fluctuations is evident, as seen in the significant net outflow of 142.3 billion yuan from equity ETFs in January, marking the largest monthly outflow since 2021. This counter-cyclical adjustment is viewed as a necessary measure to sustain the bull market trend while mitigating overheating risks [3][4]. Risk Premium and Sector Focus - As of January 16, the equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 index stands at 5.2%, which is near the median level for the past decade. Compared to previous peaks in January 2018 and February 2021, the current risk premium indicates that A-share valuations are relatively reasonable, although some sectors may experience capital withdrawal due to overheating. Key sectors attracting financing include electronics, power equipment, computers, military, and communications, with a need to monitor the impact of reduced financing on high-volatility stocks in these areas [4][5]. Investment Strategy - The slow bull trend in A-shares is expected to continue, with a focus on sectors showing high growth or improving conditions as companies prepare to announce their 2025 earnings. Key factors supporting this outlook include proactive macro policies, the influx of medium to long-term capital, and a narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI), which suggests a mild recovery in corporate earnings. Investors should pay attention to sectors such as technology (AI applications, robotics), commodities benefiting from price increases, and industries with anticipated high earnings growth [5].

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market continues to adjust, with the pharmaceutical sector declining alongside the market, particularly affected by a short-term cooling of AI medical concepts [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Hong Kong Medical ETF Huabao (159137) fell by 0.93%, marking two consecutive days of decline, while the Hong Kong Innovation Drug ETF (520880) dropped by 1.08% [1][12]. - The medical sector saw 13 stocks rise and 37 fall, with Ark Health, a hot stock in AI medical concepts, leading the decline at 6.98%, and Alibaba Health also falling by 5.16% [2][13]. - The Hong Kong Medical Theme Index achieved a record nine consecutive days of gains before experiencing a pullback, with the Huabao ETF having a cumulative increase of 6.9% in its first week, outperforming the Hang Seng Index, which rose by 2.34% [3][14]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - The Huabao Medical ETF covers 50 leading stocks across various medical fields, including CXO, AI medical, medical devices, and innovative drugs, indicating a comprehensive approach to capturing market trends [5][16]. - The medical sector has shown significant recovery since 2026, driven by hot themes like brain-computer interfaces and AI medical, with increasing investment value [6][17]. - The CXO sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with WuXi AppTec forecasting a net profit of 19.151 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 102.65% [18]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on innovative overseas expansion and hard technology sectors, such as AI medical and brain-computer interfaces, while monitoring the expansion of medical insurance and essential drug directories [18]. - The Huabao Medical ETF is highlighted as a high-elasticity investment tool for capturing new opportunities in the medical field, particularly in AI medical and innovative drug supply chains [18]. - The largest medical ETF in the A-share market, focusing on medical devices and services, is also noted for its significant weight in AI medical and brain-computer interface concept stocks [18].