中国乘联分会：6月新能源车市场零售111.1万辆，同比增29.7%。 ...

Core Insights - The new energy sector, including lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and wind power, is experiencing significant activity on the STAR Market, with the New Energy ETF (588960) rising by 3.92% and the Lithium Battery ETF (561160) increasing by 2.64% [1] - Major companies in the New Energy ETF, such as Daqo Energy and Trina Solar, have seen substantial gains, with Daqo Energy rising over 10% and Trina Solar increasing more than 6% [1] - The central government is intensifying efforts to regulate disorderly competition, focusing on improving product quality and facilitating the orderly exit of outdated production capacity [1] Industry Developments - A joint notice from the National Development and Reform Commission and other departments emphasizes the scientific planning and construction of high-power charging facilities, aiming for over 100,000 such facilities nationwide by the end of 2027 [1] - The focus will be on local economic development, the promotion of new energy vehicles, and the distribution of electric power resources, with an emphasis on "instant charge and go" scenarios [1] - Analysts indicate that semi-solid-state batteries are beginning to scale up, while solid-state batteries are expected to see small-scale deployment by 2027 and larger applications in energy storage post-2030 [1] ETF Information - The New Energy ETF (588960) closely tracks the STAR Market New Energy Index (000692.SH), with daily price fluctuations potentially reaching 20% [2] - The index comprises 50 large-cap stocks from the solar, wind, and new energy vehicle sectors, reflecting the overall performance of representative companies in the new energy industry on the STAR Market [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the battery ETF and the underlying index, driven by the growth in the new energy vehicle battery industry [1][2][3] - As of July 7, 2025, the battery ETF has seen a net value increase of 34.13% over the past year, with significant monthly returns and a record high of 52.10 billion shares [1] - The top ten weighted stocks in the National Index for New Energy Vehicle Batteries account for 65.51% of the index, indicating a concentrated investment in leading companies like CATL and BYD [2] Group 2 - The battery ETF has experienced a notable inflow of funds, with a total of 4.00 billion yuan over the last five trading days, reflecting strong investor interest [1] - The trend of "anti-involution" is identified as a key driver for market growth, leading to improved economic supply-demand relationships and enhanced corporate profitability [2] - The solid-state battery technology is expected to see significant advancements, with mass production anticipated by 2028-2029, indicating a potential shift in the battery technology landscape [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that anti-involution policies will primarily focus on industries such as new energy vehicles and photovoltaics, leading to accelerated mergers, restructuring, and integration rather than administrative capacity reduction [1] - The recent sentiment in the Hong Kong stock market has declined, with the Hang Seng Technology Index experiencing a pullback after reaching the upper range, influenced by strong U.S. economic data, delayed interest rate cuts, a depreciating RMB, and rising long-term interest rates, which have increased pressure on the liabilities of Hong Kong stocks [1] - Looking ahead, high long-term U.S. interest rates may continue to suppress the economy, but the AI capital expenditure wave is expected to support the performance of leading technology stocks in Hong Kong, with high demand in upstream AI computing power and servers likely to persist into the second half of the year, providing a favorable long-term value proposition for the Hang Seng Technology sector [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Technology ETF tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which is compiled by Guozheng Index Co., Ltd., aiming to reflect the performance of technology industry stocks that can be traded through the Stock Connect mechanism [1] - The index constituents mainly cover high-tech fields such as information technology and healthcare, selecting innovative companies with high growth potential as samples, thereby reflecting the overall trend of the technology sector in the Hong Kong stock market [1] - The industry allocation focuses on technological innovation areas, including cloud computing and biomedicine, providing investors with an efficient tool to invest in leading technology stocks in Hong Kong [1]

Group 1 - The "Great Beauty" Act, signed by Trump on July 4, 2023, will lead to further fiscal easing in the U.S., providing short-term support for economic growth but potentially causing secondary inflation risks and delaying Fed rate cuts, raising concerns about U.S. fiscal sustainability [1][10][12] - The final version of the "Great Beauty" Act has a larger deficit compared to the House version, with changes including the removal of Clause 899, an increase in the federal debt ceiling, and tightened conditions for Medicaid eligibility [1][10] - The Act is expected to have significant long-term effects across various industries, providing tax and subsidy advantages to traditional energy, manufacturing, real estate, military, and agriculture sectors while cutting benefits for clean energy, electric vehicles, healthcare, and food sectors [10][11] Group 2 - The Act will allow for the resumption of oil and gas leasing auctions on public lands and waters, and it maintains policies for real estate companies to fully deduct property improvement costs [11] - A budget of approximately $150 billion will be allocated over the next five years for large military projects, including shipbuilding and missile defense systems [11] - The semiconductor industry will see an increase in tax credits from 25% to 35% for new factories built in the U.S., with projects needing to commence by the end of 2026 [11] Group 3 - The "Great Beauty" Act represents a significant expansion of U.S. fiscal policy, which may require rate cuts to support this expansion amid high deficits and debt concerns [12][15] - The current fiscal expansion differs from previous cycles due to unexpected fiscal growth, changes in economic fundamentals, tariff uncertainties, and cracks in dollar credit [12][15] - The narrative around major asset classes is expected to fluctuate between "economic weakness," "data resilience," and "fiscal risk," impacting pricing for U.S. Treasuries, equities, the dollar, gold, and oil [15]

且从产能角度看，目前煤炭、钢铁等传统周期性行业的"落后产能"已基本出清完毕，加之上市公司并购重组/央国企整合也基本完 毕，行业集中度显著提升。在此背景下，通过行政手段进一步出清产能的空间已极为有限。 | | 一周策略前瞻 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 券商/分析师 结论 | | 逻辑 | 关注板块 | | | | 短期来看,全球市场定价核心在于7月9日美 国与各国贸易协定进展,此前美国总统特朗 普表示不考虑延长关税豁免最后期限,但此 | | | | | 种表态也可能是一种谈判策略,美国对部分 | | | | | 国家关税也有延期可能。上半年我国经济增 | 关注两条主线:1)中报业绩预期有望 | | 华西策略 | 下半年央行降准降息仍有空间,A | 长动能强劲,全年经济增速目标达成的压力 | 向好方向,如:风电、火电、机器人 | | | | | 等:2) 前期海外英伟达产业链突破新 | | 李立峰 | 股稳中向上趋势不变。 | 减轻。然而对于下半年而言，无论关税最终 | | | | | 结果如何,出口对增长的拉动力都会比上半 | 高,可期待国产链补涨行情。 | | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the photovoltaic and wind energy sectors, emphasizing the importance of supply chain integration and government policies [1][5][24]. Core Insights - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a "de-involution" movement, with significant government intervention expected to address low-price competition and excess capacity [5][24]. - The wind energy sector is projected to maintain a robust installation capacity of over 100GW in 2026, despite a slowdown in bidding activity [1][12][24]. - The report highlights the importance of government policies, such as the U.S. "Big Beautiful Act," which alleviates uncertainties for solar and storage exports to the U.S. [1][3][5]. Summary by Sections Photovoltaic & Energy Storage - The "de-involution" initiative in the photovoltaic sector has reached a high level, with government meetings signaling strong administrative intervention to address pricing issues and capacity clearing [5][24]. - Supply chain integration is crucial, particularly in the silicon material segment, which is central to the current capacity surplus [5][24]. - The report anticipates a recovery in silicon prices, contingent on the downstream price transmission capabilities and collective self-discipline within the industry [5][24]. Wind Energy - The domestic price of onshore wind turbines has shown a recovery trend in Q2, with expectations for continued strong installation capacity in 2026 [1][12][24]. - The report notes that even with a slowdown in bidding, historical data suggests that installation figures will remain stable due to previously approved projects [12][24]. - The central government has reiterated its commitment to promoting orderly development in offshore wind energy [1][12][24]. Electric Grid - Recent approvals for high-voltage direct current projects indicate significant investment potential, with expected project investments exceeding 500 billion and 170 billion yuan for specific projects [2][14][15]. - The report highlights the anticipated increase in equipment bidding for high-voltage projects, projecting a breakthrough of 500 billion yuan in 2025 [15][17]. Lithium Battery - The report emphasizes the long-term potential of lithium metal anodes, which can achieve higher energy densities compared to traditional materials [2][18][24]. - It suggests a focus on leading companies in various processing routes for lithium metal anodes, as well as solid-state battery technologies [18][24]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - The extension of tax credits for hydrogen projects in the U.S. provides a critical window for industry development [3][23]. - The European Union's new framework for clean industrial support is expected to accelerate the deployment of green hydrogen projects [3][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends specific companies across various sectors, including photovoltaic glass manufacturers, battery cell producers, and offshore wind cable suppliers, highlighting their potential for recovery and growth [24].

证券研究报告 电力设备与新能源 周观点：工信部召开座谈会，治理低 价无序竞争 华泰研究 2025 年 7 月 06 日│中国内地 行业周报（第二十七周） 周观点：工信部部长召开座谈会，治理低价无序竞争 7 月 3 日，工业和信息化部党组书记、部长李乐成主持召开光伏行业制造业 企业座谈会，聚焦加快推动光伏产业高质量发展，听取光伏行业企业及行业 协会情况介绍和意见建议。14 家光伏行业头部企业及光伏行业协会负责人 作交流发言，介绍企业基本情况、面临的困难和问题，提出政策建议。会议 强调，要依法依规、综合治理光伏行业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品 质，推动落后产能有序退出，实现健康、可持续发展。我们认为本次会议工 信部部长主持，头部企业负责人参会，为历次光伏企业座谈会的最高规格， 明确了政府与行业协同推动供给侧改革的大方向，看好后续供给侧改革细则 陆续落地，推动行业供需格局重塑。 子行业观点 1）新能源车：6 月国内新能源车销量走势较好；2）储能：SPE 提出欧洲储 能十倍扩容目标，我们看好欧洲大储起量；3）光伏：工信部部长召开座谈 会，治理低价无序竞争；4）风电：国内海风招中标稳步推进。 重点公司及动态 1）宁 ...

全球制造或将复苏：实物需求的新一轮上升周期 过去的几年中，海外发达经济体更加重视资本回报但对实体经济的重视程度相对不足，这体现为美国和欧元区上市公 司 ROE 中枢水平抬升和企业部门杠杆率的下降。但近期海外对于实体经济的重视程度正在提升：德国政府在上周提交 的 2025 年预算草案中提出在 2025 年投资 1200 亿欧元用于基础设施建设，同时大幅增加国防领域开支，2025 至 2029 年赤字规模扩张 8000 亿欧元，占德国 GDP 比重约 20%；美国方面，鼓励制造业回流是特朗普第二任期内重要的施政方 针之一，在刚刚签署的《大美丽法案》也有诸多条目用于鼓励制造业投资，将先进制造业投资可用于税收抵免的额度 由 25%提升至 35%，以制造生产为目的购置的固定资产可以在投入使用当年按 100%折旧进行抵扣。此外，《大美丽法 案》大幅提高了美国政府债务上限，由于当前美联储隔夜逆回购工具余额相比前两轮美国财政部补充 TGA 账户时要更 低，这可能意味着未来全球美元流动性可能会面临一定的冲击。6 月开始主要经济体制造业 PMI 处于共振修复的过程 中，这对于资产定价的意义是：有利于制造业大国的中国的资本品出口从 ...

美国在1985年通过广场协议，打断了日本的崛起，并收割了日本。现在美国似乎想在中国身上复制一遍，然而如今不是40年前，中国也不是日本，而美元如 果继续升值对美国将是灾难。 如果说1980年代是日本经济最风光的时刻，那么1985年的广场协议，就是压在日本经济巅峰的一记闷棍。当时，日本制造如日中天，从家电、汽车到半导 体，几乎主宰了全球市场。美国却面临巨大的贸易逆差，日元汇率长期偏低，日本出口商品在美国卖得风生水起。 于是，在纽约广场饭店，美国联合西方四国召开会议，一致决定联手干预外汇市场，推动美元贬值，日元升值。结果大家都知道：日元从1美元兑240日元一 路飙升到120日元，短短两年内升值一倍。日本出口企业遭到重创，经济从此陷入长期低迷。房地产、股市泡沫破灭，日本从经济明星变成了滞涨典型。 但值得注意的是，广场协议不仅是汇率层面的协作，更是美国对手段的试水：当自身竞争力不足时，就通过金融手段转嫁压力。而今，美国似乎又在重复这 一套，只是对象换成了中国，手段变得更"隐蔽"。 近年来，中国制造业稳步崛起，已连续14年成为世界第一制造大国。2022年，中国制造业增加值占全球比重超过30%，这一数字甚至超过了当年的日本 ...