Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View No information provided. 3) Summary by Related Catalog - **Copper**: The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper is 79,150, up 620, and the SMM flat - water copper premium is 110, up 15 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The average price of SMM A00 aluminum is 20,630, down 20, and the SMM A00 aluminum premium is - 50, with no change. The price of alumina (Shanxi) is 3240, with no change, and the average FOB price of Australian alumina is 375 dollars, with no change [1]. - **Lead**: The average price of SMM 1 lead ingot is 16,725, with no change, and the premium of SMM 1 lead ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 110, down 10. The average price of recycled refined lead is 16,750, with no change, and the refined - scrap price difference is - 25, with no change [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingot is 22,530, up 60, and the premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 30, down 20 [1]. - **Tin**: The average price of SMM 1 tin is 268,000, with no change, and the premium of SMM 1 tin to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 600, down 570. The average price of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) is 256,000, with no change, and the ratio of 40% tin concentrate (Yunnan) to SMM 1 tin is 95.52% [1]. - **Nickel**: The average price of 1 imported nickel is 122,100, up 950, and the average premium of 1 imported nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 350, with no change. The average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel is 123,950, up 900, and the average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel to the Shanghai nickel contract is 2200, down 50 [1]. - **Silicon**: The average price of oxygen - passing 553 (Xinjiang) silicon is 9700, up 150, and the premium of 553 silicon spot to the current - month futures at 10:15 is 840, down 195. The average price of 421 silicon (Kunming) is 10,000, the average price of polycrystalline silicon dense material is 0, the average price of granular silicon is 0, and the average price of N - type polycrystalline silicon material is 47 [1]. - **Lithium**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 74,500, up 2600, and the premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate to the current - month futures at 10:15 is - 6060, down 4300. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 72,300, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 2200, up 100 [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal industry is expected to optimize its supply-demand structure due to the "anti-involution" policy, which will lead to the elimination of outdated production capacity and improve the efficiency of resource, smelting, and demand linkages [1] - The demand side remains optimistic for long-term growth in sectors such as new energy, which will boost the medium to long-term demand growth for non-ferrous metals [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has proposed a work plan to stabilize growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, promoting structural adjustments, optimizing supply, eliminating backward production capacity, and encouraging green low-carbon technological innovation [1] Group 2 - The industrial metal sector is expected to see improved industry dynamics through capacity optimization and demand stimulation, which may lead to stabilization and recovery of metal prices, enhancing the profitability of companies with high-quality production capacity [1] - The non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Metals Index (930708), which reflects the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal industry in the Chinese A-share market, covering various metal resources such as copper, aluminum, and lead-zinc [1]

有色金属日报 2025-8-8 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 贵金属价格上涨，铜价冲高回落，昨日伦铜收跌 0.04%至 9670 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 78360 元 /吨，特朗普宣布提名新的美联储理事后市场重新走强。产业层面，昨日 LME 库存减少 125 至 156000 吨，注销仓单比例抬升至 7.1%，Cash/3M 贴水 62.6 美元/吨。国内方面，电铜社 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The electronic industry saw a net inflow of 1.846 billion yuan, significantly surpassing other sectors [1] - The A-share market experienced mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year [1] - Overall, the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets had a net outflow of 26.748 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Among the sectors with net inflows, the electronic industry led with 1.846 billion yuan, followed by non-ferrous metals (655 million yuan), transportation (336 million yuan), beauty care (196 million yuan), and retail (152 million yuan) [1] - The machinery equipment sector had the highest net outflow, totaling 5.261 billion yuan, with defense, power equipment, and computer sectors also exceeding 3 billion yuan in outflows [1] Group 3: Individual Stock Performance - Tianyu Digital Science saw a net inflow of 643 million yuan, leading individual stocks, with the company confirming it is not under investigation [2] - Shuo Beid's net inflow was 623 million yuan, with expectations of market opportunities due to the recovery of the consumer electronics market [3] - A total of 115 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 1 billion yuan, with notable outflows from Zhongji Xuchuang, China Shipbuilding Industry, and others [4] Group 4: Tail-End Market Activity - At the tail end of trading, the main funds had a net inflow of 1.771 billion yuan, with the media and non-ferrous metals sectors attracting over 600 million yuan each [5] - Six stocks, including Tianyu Digital Science and Dazhu Laser, saw net inflows exceeding 1 billion yuan at the tail end [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. - The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is mainly volatile, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price in the medium - term. Alumina is in an oversupply state and is under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - The zinc market has an outer - strong and inner - weak fundamental situation. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. - The Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. - The Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. - The Shanghai tin is expected to be in a volatile market. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. - After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. - The industrial silicon supply is under pressure, and it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. - The polysilicon PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10]. Detailed Summaries by Categories Copper - On Thursday, Shanghai copper fluctuated and closed up near the MA60 moving average. The copper market lacks a clear main line, and one should continue to wait for the impact of economic indicators on the US tariff risk. Hold previous short positions [1]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate strongly. The spot discount in East China widened by 10 yuan to 50 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory remained flat compared to Monday, and aluminum rod inventory decreased by 0.9 tons. The peak inventory may appear in August. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan [2]. - Casting aluminum alloy follows the fluctuations of Shanghai aluminum. The Baotai spot price increased by 100 yuan to 19,800 yuan. The waste aluminum supply is tight, and the aluminum alloy industry profit is poor. In the medium - term, it has certain tenacity relative to the aluminum price. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity with AL [2]. - The operating capacity of alumina is at a historical high, the total industry inventory has increased, and the market is in an oversupply state. The anti - involution theme has led to sharp fluctuations in related varieties. The price of bauxite is firm during the overseas rainy season. Alumina is under pressure to fluctuate, but the downward space is relatively limited [2]. Zinc - The expiration date of the main contract falls in the "Golden September and Silver October" period. The expectations of domestic fiscal policy and the Fed's interest rate cut are positive. LME zinc inventory continues to decline to 89,000 tons, and SMM zinc social inventory has risen to 113,200 tons. The zinc spot import loss has widened to more than 1,600 yuan/ton. The outer market pulls the inner market up, and bulls return periodically. Wait for short - allocation opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3]. Lead - Environmental inspections have affected the start - up of secondary lead production in Anhui. The supply of lead ingots has large regional differences. The SMM refined lead price remained flat. The average price of 1 lead has a real - time discount of 80 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The lead social inventory decreased by 0.18 tons to 71,100 tons. New orders of battery enterprises in August have improved. There are still regular maintenance plans for large primary lead smelters from late August to early September. Shanghai lead has limited downward space, and its rebound height depends on consumption. It is advisable to participate in short - term long positions on dips [5]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The anti - involution theme in the domestic market is coming to an end, and nickel with relatively poor fundamentals will accelerate its return to fundamentals. The premium of Jinchuan nickel is 2,350 yuan, the premium of imported nickel is 350 yuan, and the premium of electrowon nickel is 50 yuan. The price support from the upstream has significantly weakened. Nickel iron inventory remains basically flat at 33,000 tons, pure nickel inventory has decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory has decreased by 0.1 tons to 966,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Pay attention to the signs of the end of inventory reduction. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of a rebound, and one should actively enter short positions [6]. Tin - Shanghai tin fluctuated with a decrease in positions during the session, and it is expected to be in a volatile market. Overseas tin prices are supported by low visible inventory and the decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, one should pay attention to the changes in high social inventory under the game between the maintenance plans of large factories and weak consumption. Close out high - level short positions and wait and see [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate rebounded with increased trading volume, and market trading contracted. After the repeated price fluctuations, the futures and spot markets were unlocked, and a large amount of circulating goods began to enter the market. The downstream inquiry behavior was active, and the spot market trading improved. The total market inventory slightly decreased to 142,000 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 3,000 tons to 52,000 tons, the downstream inventory increased by 3,000 tons to 46,000 tons, and the trader inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The transfer of cargo rights is obvious. The downstream increased the replenishment efforts during the price correction. The latest quotation of Australian ore is 745 US dollars, which clearly follows the decline of lithium carbonate prices. The smelting output decreased by 8% week - on - week. After the rebound of lithium carbonate futures prices, the game value decreases, and one should look for high - level short - selling positions [8]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed slightly up, and the spot manufacturers' quotations remained stable. On the supply side, according to SMM, the expected output of industrial silicon in August will increase by about 21,700 - 31,700 tons month - on - month. Sichuan and Yunnan continue to increase the start - up rate, and large factories in Xinjiang also have复产 plans. The downstream polysilicon is expected to have an incremental demand of about 11,800 - 12,100 tons, while the large organic silicon accident factory is still in the process of resuming production, and the expected demand increase is not large. Therefore, the industrial silicon supply is under pressure. Currently, the futures price has corrected significantly, and affected by the expected supply policy of Xinjiang, it is expected to be mainly volatile in the short term, with support at 8,500 yuan/ton [9]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures closed slightly down, and the trading sentiment declined marginally. The average price of SMM re - feed material remained stable at 47,000 yuan/ton. The price and inventory transmission in the component link still have blockages, and the spot price increase of polysilicon is expected to be slow. Under the pattern of futures premium, the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 70 lots, but the total scale is still at a low level relative to the positions. The details of capacity storage have not been updated, and affected by policy regulation, the PS2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton [10].

| 分析师 | 职务 | 研究方向 | 从业资格证号 | 投资咨询号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 点静 | 首席分析师 | 铜、锡 | F3047773 | Z0014087 | | 刘冬博 | 高级分析师 | 铝、氧化铝、黄金 | F3062795 | Z0015311 | | 吴江 | 高级分析师 | 镇及不锈钢、白银、碳酸锂 | F3085524 | Z0016394 | | 孙芳芳 | 中级分析师 | 铝、锌 | F03111330 | Z0018905 | | 张秀睿 | 中级分析师 | 工业硅 | F03099436 | Z0021022 | 2025/8/7 12:59 企业微信截图_17545416632354.png (2702×4287) | | | | 电需要加盟 书记 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国投期货有色金属团队 | | | | 2025/8/7 | | | SMM 1#电解铜-平均价 | 涨跌 | SMM平水铜升贴水 | 涨跌 | | 制 | 78500 | 150 | 80 | 15 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Copper prices may be weak due to factors such as the US economic stagflation expectation, Trump's deadline for Russia, and the results of China - US negotiations. However, the expectation of the "Golden September" peak season will limit the decline [1]. - Alumina is in a weak and volatile state due to increased supply expectations, while electrolytic aluminum may face downward pressure on its price center due to increased production and inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy is expected to repair the price difference in the peak season [2]. - Nickel and stainless - steel prices are affected by market sentiment in the short term and show a volatile trend, with support from the price of nickel - iron and intermediate products below and demand suppression above [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper fell 0.76% to $9634.5/ton, and SHFE copper fell 0.52% to 78070 yuan/ton. The US July ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, triggering stagflation expectations. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, Comex copper increased by 916 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons. Terminal orders slowed down during the off - season, and the market may be weak in early August, but the "Golden September" expectation will limit the decline [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina was weak and volatile, with AO2509 closing at 3207 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decline.沪铝 was strong and volatile, with AL2509 closing at 20525 yuan/ton, a 0.15% increase. The supply of alumina is expected to increase, and the production of electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan is rising, with potential inventory accumulation. The aluminum alloy may shift from the off - season to the peak - season price difference repair in 2511 [2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.33% to $15055/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 120500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. Nickel ore prices declined slightly, and stainless - steel raw material prices were divided. In the short term, prices are affected by market sentiment and show a volatile trend [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - water copper increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the premium decreased by 45 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 14275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 1581 tons, and the total social inventory decreased by 0.2 million tons [3]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and LME inventory decreased by 1250 tons, while the weekly inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 29 tons [3]. - **Aluminum**: The prices in Wuxi and Nanhai increased, and the spot premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2300 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons. The alumina inventory decreased by 1.2 million tons [4]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 500 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 2172 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 247 tons. The social inventory of nickel decreased by 795 tons [4]. - **Zinc**: The主力结算 price increased by 0.5%, and the SMM 0 and 1 spot prices increased by 130 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 793 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 4725 tons [5]. - **Tin**: The主力结算 price remained unchanged, and the SMM spot price increased by 1200 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increased by 254 tons, and LME inventory decreased by 25 tons [5]. Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium**: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][13]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the historical trends of the spread between the first and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [14][19]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [22][24][26]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [29][31][33]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [35][37][39]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [42][44]. 有色金属 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and has won multiple industry awards. He has over a decade of commodity research experience [47]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly researching aluminum and silicon [47]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the integration of non - ferrous metals and new energy [48].

Report Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper price rebounds due to overseas equity market recovery, mine - end production cut concerns, but upward height is limited in the off - season [1]. - Aluminum price fluctuates, with a short - term trend of weakening oscillation due to inventory accumulation and uncertain trade situation [3]. - Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. - Zinc price has an increased risk of decline due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. - Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term due to the strengthening of the resumption of production in Myanmar and the weak supply - demand situation [6][7]. - Nickel price may decline as the macro - atmosphere cools, demand is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to fall [8]. - Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom due to the expected improvement in the supply - demand relationship, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Alumina price may face an over - capacity situation, and it is recommended to short at high prices [12]. - Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. - Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - Price: LME copper rose 0.78% to $9708/ton, Shanghai copper main contract reached 78370 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory: LME inventory decreased by 2175 tons to 139575 tons, domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased by 16000 tons [1]. - Price Outlook: In the current off - season, the upward space of copper price is limited, with the Shanghai copper main contract running between 77600 - 79000 yuan/ton and LME copper 3M between 9600 - 9800 dollars/ton [1]. Aluminum - Price: LME aluminum fell 0.06% to $2570/ton, Shanghai aluminum main contract reached 20440 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory accumulated, LME aluminum inventory increased by 925 tons to 463725 tons [3][18]. - Price Outlook: Aluminum price may oscillate weakly in the short term, with the Shanghai aluminum main contract running between 20350 - 20600 yuan/ton and LME aluminum 3M between 2540 - 2600 dollars/ton [3]. Lead - Price: Shanghai lead index rose 0.09% to 16751 yuan/ton, LME lead 3S rose to $1974.5/ton [4]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory decreased to 6.63 tons, LME lead inventory was 27.53 tons [4]. - Price Outlook: Lead price is expected to oscillate weakly as supply remains loose [4]. Zinc - Price: Shanghai zinc index fell 0.32% to 22249 yuan/ton, LME zinc 3S fell to $2734.5/ton [5]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory continued to accumulate to 10.73 tons, LME zinc inventory was 97000 tons [5][18]. - Production: In July 2025, the domestic refined zinc production was 60.28 tons, and it is expected to reach 62.15 tons in August [5]. - Price Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to weak industry data and the weakening of previous supporting factors [5]. Tin - Price: On August 4, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 266590 yuan/ton, up 0.56% [6]. - Supply - Demand: Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term smelting faces raw material pressure; domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [6][7]. - Price Outlook: Tin price is expected to oscillate weakly, with the domestic tin price between 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton and LME tin price between 31000 - 33000 dollars/ton [7]. Nickel - Price: Nickel price rebounded slightly, nickel iron price was stable after rising, and refined nickel price rebounded slightly with flat trading [8]. - Market Situation: Macro - atmosphere cools, stainless steel price falls, and nickel ore price is expected to decline [8]. - Price Outlook: Nickel price is expected to decline, with the Shanghai nickel main contract between 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton and LME nickel 3M between 14500 - 16500 dollars/ton [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Price: The MMLC index was 68832 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the LC2509 contract closed at 68920 yuan, also unchanged [10]. - Market Situation: The fundamental improvement depends on the actual reduction of the mine end, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve before the peak season [10]. - Price Outlook: Lithium carbonate price may be supported at the bottom, but the supply reduction sustainability needs to be observed, with the Guangzhou Futures Exchange LC2509 contract between 66800 - 70900 yuan/ton [10]. Alumina - Price: The alumina index rose 2.25% to 3224 yuan/ton, overseas FOB price fell to $376/ton, and the import window was closed [12]. - Inventory: The futures warehouse receipt was 0.66 tons, remaining at a historical low [12]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices, with the domestic main contract AO2509 between 3000 - 3400 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - Price: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12925 yuan/ton, up 0.66%, and spot prices in some regions increased [14]. - Inventory: Social inventory decreased by 0.66%, but 300 - series inventory increased by 1.00%, and the supply of 316L was tight [14]. - Price Outlook: Stainless steel price is expected to be strongly oscillating in the short term [14]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Price: The AD2511 contract rose 0.05% to 19930 yuan/ton, and the spot price was flat [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in three regions decreased [16]. - Price Outlook: Cast aluminum alloy price has limited rebound space due to weak supply - demand in the off - season [16].

Core Viewpoint - The unexpected exclusion of refined copper from the U.S. tariff list led to a significant drop in COMEX prices, as hedge funds sold off their positions anticipating losses [1][4]. Group 1: Tariff Announcement and Market Reaction - On July 30, the U.S. government announced a 50% tariff on imported copper products, but refined copper was not included, minimizing the impact on domestic importers and processors [3][4]. - The COMEX price for refined copper fell sharply, with the main contract dropping 20% to approximately $4.503 per pound (around $9,900 per ton), aligning more closely with LME prices [4]. - Hedge funds had previously increased their long positions, expecting further price increases, but were forced to sell off as the tariff announcement contradicted their expectations [4][5]. Group 2: Price Discrepancies and Trading Strategies - Prior to the tariff announcement, there was a price gap of about $2,600 per ton between U.S. and international prices, which was expected to widen with the new tariffs [5]. - Traders had been engaging in "tariff trading," importing refined copper from countries like South Korea and Taiwan to sell at higher prices in the U.S., but the exclusion of refined copper from tariffs undermined this strategy [5]. - The increase in U.S. copper inventories has led to a situation where domestic prices are now lower than LME prices, reflecting the market's adjustment to the new tariff landscape [5][6]. Group 3: Global Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global copper market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with a reported excess of 272,000 tons from January to May [6]. - Concerns about China's economic outlook, as the largest consumer of copper, are contributing to downward pressure on demand [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's monetary policy is neutral to hawkish, but the US copper tariff falling short of expectations eases the pressure on copper prices. The tight supply of copper raw materials persists, and short - term supply disruptions have increased. It is expected that copper prices will gradually stabilize in the short term [1]. - The boost from Sino - US economic and trade negotiations and the Politburo meeting to market sentiment is limited. The aluminum price continues to fluctuate. The relatively low domestic aluminum ingot inventory supports the aluminum price, but the price rebound will be limited due to the off - season downstream and weak export demand [3]. - The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened. The price of lead - acid batteries has stopped falling and stabilized, and the downstream purchasing is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on smelters expands, both the single - side price and the spread may strengthen [4]. - In the medium - to - long term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as the domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. In the short term, there are uncertainties in the Fed's interest - rate decision, and there are still structural risks in the overseas market [6]. - Tin supply and demand are both weak in the short term. Due to the strengthened expectation of resuming production in Myanmar, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [7]. - The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and demand is weak. It is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline, driving down the price center of the industrial chain [9]. - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, but there is high uncertainty due to capital games. Speculative funds are advised to wait and see cautiously [11][12]. - The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [14]. - Stainless steel mills have a firm short - term price - holding policy, but if terminal demand cannot absorb the increased supply, traders may cut prices to reduce inventory. Attention should be paid to the real recovery of terminal demand [16]. - The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Due to the large difference between futures and spot prices, the upward pressure on prices is expected to be large [18]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.74% to $9730/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78700 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the SHFE copper main contract is 78200 - 79800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9680 - 9920 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 9225 to 136850 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.2 to 20000 tons [1]. - **Market**: The domestic spot copper import was at a loss of about 300 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference was 980 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper substitution advantage remained low [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose slightly by 0.08% to $2608/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20615 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2580 - 2640 dollars/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 0.6 million to 609000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 51000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.65 to 388500 tons, and the aluminum bar inventory in Foshan and Wuxi decreased by 0.2 to 87000 tons [3]. - **Market**: The LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.4 to 460000 tons, and the spot in the East China market was at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the futures [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index closed down 0.06% to 16892 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S remained flat at $2016/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 61900 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 64800 tons [4]. - **Market**: The price difference between refined and scrap lead was at par. The start - up rate of primary lead decreased slightly, and that of recycled lead increased from a low level [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.11% to 22676 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S remained flat at $2806/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 15200 tons, and domestic social inventory continued to increase to 103700 tons [6]. - **Market**: The import zinc concentrate TC index rose significantly. The concentration of long - positions in the LME zinc market is high, and there are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: On July 30, 2025, the SHFE tin main contract closed at 267960 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The short - term expected operating range for domestic tin prices is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Inventory**: SHFE futures registered warehouse receipts decreased by 96 to 7433 tons, and LME inventory increased by 90 to 1945 tons [7]. - **Market**: The supply of tin ore is expected to recover, but the smelting end is still under raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak in the off - season, while overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The price of high - nickel iron remained stable, and the refined nickel spot trading was fair [9]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory data was emphasized in the text. - **Market**: The short - term macro - atmosphere has cooled, stainless steel prices have declined, and it is expected that the price of nickel ore will continue to decline [9]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat at 71832 yuan. The LC2509 contract closed at 70600 yuan, down 0.34%. The expected operating range for the LC2509 contract is 68600 - 73200 yuan/ton [11][12]. - **Inventory**: No relevant inventory data provided. - **Market**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange adjusted the trading limits for some lithium carbonate contracts. There is high uncertainty due to capital games [11]. Alumina - **Price**: On July 30, 2025, the alumina index rose 0.73% to 3314 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.24 to 0.66 million tons, still at a historical low [14]. - **Market**: The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern is difficult to change in the short term [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12920 yuan/ton, unchanged. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi increased slightly [16]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased by 62 to 103234 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% to 1118600 tons [16]. - **Market**: Steel mills have a firm short - term price - holding policy, and the supply in August is expected to increase [16]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract rose 0.25% to 20070 yuan/ton [18]. - **Inventory**: Domestic three - place recycled aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased slightly to 31000 tons [18]. - **Market**: The downstream is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand, and the price is under upward pressure [18].