1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs, and predicts that they will all experience wide - range fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures closed at 706.0 yuan/ton, up 3.0 yuan or 0.43%. The positions increased by 4,370 hands. Among spot prices, the price of most ores decreased slightly, and the basis and spreads also changed to varying degrees [4]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 2,995 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%. For hot - rolled coil HC2510, the closing price was 3,112 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.16%. In terms of inventory and demand, there were corresponding changes in production, inventory, and apparent demand [7][8][9]. - **News**: In May 2025, national steel production data showed a decline in crude steel and pig iron production year - on - year, and an increase in steel production. On June 19, steel production increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand changed [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Market Trend**: Ferrosilicon is affected by sector sentiment resonance and silicomanganese has a firm ore - end quotation, both with wide - range fluctuations [2][10]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures contracts changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [10]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed, and a steel mill in Shandong finalized the ferrosilicon purchase price [10]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Market Trend**: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations. Four rounds of coke price cuts have been implemented [2][13]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of coke and coking coal futures changed, and there were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads. The positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts also changed [13][15]. - **News**: On June 23, the prices of coking coal in some regions changed, and the positions of the top 20 members in the DCE showed that the long positions of coking coal increased and the short positions decreased, while for coke, both long and short positions decreased [13][14][15]. Thermal Coal - **Market Trend**: Demand remains to be released, with wide - range fluctuations [2][17]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan. There were corresponding prices for domestic and foreign trade thermal coal, and the positions of the top 20 members in the ZCE did not change [18][19]. Logs - **Market Trend**: The basis is being repaired, with wide - range fluctuations [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts changed, and the prices of various types of logs in the spot market were mostly stable [21]. - **News**: On June 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR was 3%, unchanged from the previous month [23].

6月23日，集运欧线主力合约盘中快速回落，最终以4.67%的跌幅领跌国内商品市场。虽然目前市场关注地缘局势对大宗商品带来的影响，但尚未对欧线产 生实际影响，据航司方面表示，船只继续通过霍尔木兹海峡，叠加基本面的利空压力，市场情绪偏弱。不过，需要注意的是，地缘局势仍有变化，可能会在 短暂的时间段内抵消悲观预期带来的利空。展望后市，南华期货表示，美线集运市场逐步达到供需平衡，运费大幅下跌，此前受外溢情绪影响的欧线运费也 因预期落空而有所回落。近期，部分船司7月初欧线现舱报价有所下调，可以说是引领期价回落的主因。对于后市而言，因周末中东地区地缘政治风险增 加，且伊朗关闭霍尔木兹海峡的可能性显著增加，可能对欧线造成一定的外溢影响，后续可继续关注其余船司是否跟进发布7月涨价函，以及以伊冲突的后 续发展。 供需双弱的基本面下，多晶硅主力合约连续第五个交易日收跌，跌幅3.30%，继续刷新上市以来新低30605元/吨。国投期货分析认为，当前多晶硅市场下行 的核心原因仍在于终端需求继高增速后持续阶段性回落，具体表现为组件订单量下降、电池片对应尺寸价格处于低位。从产业链传导看，市场对多晶硅供应 增加的预期升温，而硅片排产环比下调 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range due to repeated expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coil are subject to wide fluctuations under the influence of macro sentiment [2][6]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have a weak oscillation due to sector sentiment resonance [2][10]. - Silicomanganese is expected to have a weak oscillation as the quotes of mining enterprises move down [2][10]. - Coke is expected to have wide fluctuations [2][14]. - Coking coal is expected to have wide fluctuations as safety inspections become stricter [2][15]. - Steam coal is expected to have wide fluctuations as demand still needs to be released [2][19]. - Logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly [2][23]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 704.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan or -0.42%. The positions decreased by 12,525 hands. Among spot prices, the prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined slightly [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [4]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures declined, with decreases of -0.70% and -0.87% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, both showed certain changes. Spot prices generally decreased, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on June 12, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 10.89 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 4.1 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 21.53 tons. In terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 12.4 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.77 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 9.25 tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 9.06 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 1.04 tons, and the total of five major varieties decreased by 14.07 tons. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year-on-year increases of 11.6% and 11.2%. In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%; from January to May, the cumulative steel exports were 48.469 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%. In May, China imported 481,000 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.9%; from January to May, the cumulative steel imports were 2.553 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 16.1%. In late May 2025, key steel enterprises produced 23 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.091 million tons, a daily output decrease of 4.9% month-on-month; 21.04 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.913 million tons, a daily output decrease of 3.5% month-on-month; and 23.94 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.177 million tons, a daily output increase of 2.5% month-on-month [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese futures declined. Spot prices also decreased. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross-variety spreads all had corresponding changes [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On June 12, the prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions were reported, and the prices of some grades decreased. The price quotes of silicomanganese 6517 in the north and south were also reported. A large steel group in Hebei increased the procurement volume of silicomanganese and 75B ferrosilicon in June compared with May. Comilog announced a decrease in the quotation of Gabon blocks to China in July 2025, and United Mining (CML) also decreased its quotation to China [11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend intensity of silicomanganese is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices of coking coal and coke futures declined, with decreases of -2.17% and -2.03% respectively. In terms of trading volume and positions, there were certain changes. Spot prices were mostly stable, and the basis and spreads also had corresponding fluctuations [15]. - **Price and Position Situation**: The quotes of coking coal in northern ports were reported, and the CCI metallurgical coal index on June 12 was also provided. In terms of positions, on June 12, from the positions of the top 20 members of the DCE, the long positions of the coking coal JM2509 contract increased by 4,909 hands, and the short positions increased by 3,349 hands; the long positions of the coke J2509 contract decreased by 803 hands, and the short positions increased by 304 hands [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both -1, indicating a bearish outlook [17]. Steam Coal - **Yesterday's Domestic Market**: The steam coal ZC2507 had no trading yesterday. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 840.0 yuan/ton, a decrease of 51.4 yuan from the previous trading day's settlement price. The trading volume was 18 lots, and the positions were 0 [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The quotes of foreign trade steam coal in southern ports and domestic steam coal production areas were reported. In terms of positions, on June 12, from the positions of the top 20 members of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the long and short positions of the steam coal ZC2507 contract both decreased by 0 hands [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of steam coal is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of different log futures contracts all showed certain fluctuations. The prices of log spot products also had different degrees of changes, with some showing slight decreases [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In May, the CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, and the PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [27].

Trade and Economy - Since the signing of the China–New Zealand Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2008, New Zealand's exports to China have surged from $2.5 billion to $20.85 billion in 2024, with an average annual growth rate of 14.1%, significantly higher than the 7.7% growth rate for New Zealand's exports to the rest of the world [1] - Bilateral goods trade has expanded by nearly $30 billion since the FTA took effect, with the first $10 billion increase taking eight years (2008-2016) and the second $10 billion achieved in just three years (2016-2019). New Zealand has recorded a trade surplus in goods with China for eight consecutive years from 2017 to 2024 [2] - The upgraded protocol of the China–NZ FTA took effect on April 7, 2022, granting New Zealand expanded market access in 22 new service sectors and enhancing access in 17 existing sectors [3] - As of January 1, 2024, all New Zealand dairy products can enter China tariff-free and without quotas, marking the full implementation of the FTA, with over 98% of New Zealand's exports to China enjoying zero-tariff access [4] - In 2024, trade between China and New Zealand reached 38.26 billion New Zealand dollars, with exports to China accounting for 20.6% of New Zealand's total exports and 25% of its total goods exports, supporting over 100,000 jobs [5] - In the first quarter of 2025, total trade between China and New Zealand reached $10.51 billion, with New Zealand's exports to China amounting to $6.29 billion, up 12.5% year-on-year [6] - In April 2025, goods trade totaled $3.41 billion, with New Zealand's exports to China reaching $2.07 billion, up 29.9% year-on-year [8] - New Zealand participated in the China International Import Expo for seven consecutive years, sending its largest-ever delegation in 2024 and signing 24 cooperation agreements expected to generate 340 million New Zealand dollars in trade over the next three years [9] Tourism and People to People Exchanges - China is New Zealand's third-largest source of international visitors, with 248,300 mainland Chinese tourists visiting New Zealand in the year ending March 2025, spending 1.414 billion New Zealand dollars [10] - In June 2024, a unilateral visa waiver policy for New Zealand citizens was announced, leading to 86,200 New Zealanders entering China in the first three quarters of the year [10] - The number of sister-city relationships between China and New Zealand has increased to 42, with the China–New Zealand Mayoral Forum serving as a key platform for local-level exchanges [12] Education - China has been New Zealand's largest source of international students for several years, with 25,175 out of 73,535 international students in New Zealand coming from China, accounting for 34% of the total [13] - High-level academic cooperation in key fields such as food science and environmental protection has been pursued by universities in both countries, exemplified by the establishment of the Peking University New Zealand Center [14] - The China-NZ Tripartite Partnership Programme, launched in 2005, has supported nearly 60 collaborative research and academic exchange projects over its 20-year history [15] Agriculture - China is New Zealand's largest market for food and fibre exports, with New Zealand earning 16.815 billion New Zealand dollars from food and fibre exports to China in the year ending March 2024, accounting for 33% of its total export revenue in this sector [17] Science and Technology - The China–NZ collaborative dive expedition to the Puysegur Trench marked the first scientific exploration of the trench and involved scientists from ten institutions across eight countries [20] - The China–NZ Belt and Road Joint Laboratory on Biomedicine and Health has facilitated the transfer of CAR-T immunotherapy to New Zealand for clinical trials, offering new hope for cancer patients [22] - Collaborative research in food quality testing and coastal wetland conservation has provided practical benefits for both countries, with initiatives like the China–NZ Belt and Road Joint Laboratory on Kiwifruit promoting New Zealand's kiwifruit in global markets [23]

2025年06月05日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：市场情绪提振，宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：黑色板块共振，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：三轮提降开启，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 焦煤：消息扰动，盘面震荡偏强 | 7 | | 动力煤：底部阶段企稳运行 | 9 | | 原木：弱势震荡 | 10 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 5 日 铁矿石：板块预期反复，宽幅震荡 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 1. 29% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12509 | | 704. ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide overall industry investment ratings. However, it gives trend intensities for each commodity, which can be used as a reference for investment sentiment: - Iron ore: -2 (most bearish) [5] - Rebar: 0 (neutral) [9] - Hot-rolled coil: 0 (neutral) [9] - Ferrosilicon: -1 (bearish) [13] - Silicomanganese: -1 (bearish) [13] - Coke: -1 (bearish) [16] - Coking coal: -1 (bearish) [16] - Thermal coal: 0 (neutral) [19] - Logs: -1 (bearish) [24] 2. Core Views of the Report - Iron ore faces downward price risks due to weak demand expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to oscillate at low levels with negative feedback expectations leading [2][7]. - Ferrosilicon will experience weak oscillations due to poor demand expectations, and silicomanganese will also have weak oscillations as port ore transactions are under pressure [2][11]. - Coke has seen the second round of price cuts implemented and is expected to oscillate weakly, while coking coal is also expected to oscillate weakly [2][14]. - Thermal coal is stabilizing at the bottom stage [2][17]. - Logs are expected to oscillate weakly [2][20]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: Futures price closed at 702.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan (-0.71%); open interest decreased by 1,831 hands. Spot prices of various iron ores declined, with the largest drop of 5.0 yuan/ton. The basis and spreads also changed slightly [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's manufacturing PMI in May was 49.5% [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: Rebar RB2510 closed at 2,964 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan (-0.77%); hot - rolled coil HC2510 closed at 3,100 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan (-0.55%). Spot prices in most regions decreased, and the basis and spreads changed accordingly [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In the weekly data on May 29, rebar production decreased by 5.97 tons, hot - rolled coil production increased by 13.87 tons; total inventory of rebar decreased by 23.17 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 7.38 tons; apparent demand for rebar increased by 1.55 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil increased by 13.87 tons. On May 30, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.87%, up 0.18 percentage points week - on - week; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.69%, down 0.63 percentage points week - on - week; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, down 0.87 percentage points week - on - week; the daily average pig iron output was 241.91 tons, down 1.69 tons week - on - week. In April 2025, global crude steel production decreased by 0.3% year - on - year to 155.7 million tons. In mid - May 2025, key steel enterprises' average daily crude steel output decreased by 0.3% month - on - month, pig iron output decreased by 0.4% month - on - month, and steel output increased by 1.9% month - on - month [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese decreased. Spot prices of silicomanganese increased by 120 yuan/ton, while that of ferrosilicon decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The basis, spreads between near and far months, and cross - variety spreads all changed [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of May 30, prices of various grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions changed. Manganese ore inventory at major ports decreased by 13.83 million tons week - on - week as of May 30. Some steel mills' procurement prices and volumes of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were announced [11][13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coke and coking coal decreased. Spot prices of coking coal in some regions decreased, and that of coke also decreased. The basis and spreads changed [14]. - **Price and Position Information**: Coking coal quotes at northern ports were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of coking coal JM2509 and coke J2509 contracts in the top 20 members of the DCE changed [14][16]. Thermal Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: The ZC2506 contract had no trading. The previous opening price was 931.6 yuan/ton, the highest was 931.6 yuan/ton, the lowest was 840.0 yuan/ton, and it closed at 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan from the previous settlement price [17]. - **Fundamentals**: Quotes of foreign trade thermal coal at southern ports and domestic thermal coal at production areas were provided. On May 30, the long - short positions of the ZC2506 contract in the top 20 members of the ZCE did not change [18]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log contracts changed. Spot prices of most log products remained stable, with only a few showing small fluctuations [22]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, national real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year, and residential investment decreased by 9.6% year - on - year [24].

Group 1: Silver Market Analysis - London silver is currently trading above $33.54, with an opening price of $33.03 per ounce and a current price of $33.48, reflecting a 1.33% increase [1] - The highest price reached today was $33.54, while the lowest was $32.88, indicating a short-term bullish trend in the silver market [1] - The trading range for platinum metal over the past month has been between $31.65 and $33.70, with recent price movements showing uncertainty as it fluctuates around the 20-period exponential moving average [3] Group 2: EU-US Trade Negotiations - EU and US tariff negotiations have resumed but remain fraught with uncertainty, with the EU willing to make concessions on purchasing US natural gas, weapons, and agricultural products, while rejecting US demands to eliminate VAT and weaken digital regulations [2] - The US continues to impose a 25% tariff on EU steel and aluminum products and maintains a 10% baseline tariff on nearly all other goods, threatening additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and other key sectors [2] - The EU has initiated public consultations on a list of nearly €100 billion worth of goods in response to US tariffs and plans to file a complaint with the WTO regarding US tariffs on cars and parts [2]

Core Insights - The second Hainan Agarwood and Huanghuali International Trade Fair, named "Tianxiang Guose," was promoted in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, highlighting the growing interest in Hainan agarwood in the region [1][2] - The Saudi Arabian fragrance and perfume industry has seen significant growth due to increasing local demand and expansion into regional and global markets, creating opportunities for collaboration with Chinese companies [1] - The event aims to strengthen trade and economic relations between China and Saudi Arabia, facilitating knowledge sharing and enhancing economic and investment cooperation [1] Industry Overview - China's annual production of agarwood raw materials is approximately 4,000 tons, covering four main categories: incense, cultural and artistic products, pharmaceuticals, and daily chemical products, with over 300 subcategories [2] - Hainan agarwood is renowned for its exceptional quality and medicinal value, benefiting from the unique tropical climate and soil conditions, while Huanghuali is considered a precious wood highly sought after in the market [2] - The promotion event has created a favorable international atmosphere for the second Tianxiang Guose exhibition, enhancing brand building and channel expansion for Hainan agarwood and Huanghuali in the Saudi market [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Iron Ore**: Short - term bullish factors have been realized, and the upward driving force is slowing down [2][4]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in low - level oscillations [2][7][8]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide**: Due to the resonance of the black - metal sector and the resumption of Australian ore shipments, they are in weak oscillations [2][13]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in bottom - level oscillations [2][18]. - **Steam Coal**: With the increase in coal mine inventories, it is in a weak and oscillating state [2][22]. - **Logs**: In a weak oscillation [2][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Tracking**: The futures closed at 725.0 yuan/ton, up 2.5 yuan/ton (0.35%). The import and domestic ore prices had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also showed different fluctuations [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On May 20, the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% (down from 3.6% last month), and the 1 - year LPR was 3% (down from 3.1% last month) [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [5]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Tracking**: RB2510 closed at 3,058 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.59%); HC2510 closed at 3,202 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.37%). Spot prices in different regions had minor changes, and the basis and spreads also fluctuated [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: South Korea continued to impose anti - dumping duties on stainless steel sheets from China, etc. In April 2025, China's crude steel output was 8602 million tons, with daily output down 4.3% month - on - month. From January to April, Hebei had the highest crude steel output [8][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [10]. Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicide - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices of different contracts decreased. Spot prices of silicon ferrosilicon and manganese silicide had different changes, and the price spreads also fluctuated [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In April 2025, China's silicon - manganese exports and imports, manganese ore imports data were released. South32 resumed Australian manganese ore exports, and NMT announced the June 2025 manganese ore shipment price to China [15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Tracking**: JM2509 closed at 838.5 yuan/ton, down 6.5 yuan/ton (-0.77%); J2509 closed at 1407.5 yuan/ton, down 20.5 yuan/ton (-1.44%). Spot prices and basis, spreads had different changes [18]. - **Price and Position Situation**: Northern port coking coal quotes and May 20 CCI metallurgical coal index were provided. On May 20, for JM2509, long positions increased by 6841 hands, short positions increased by 6888 hands; for J2509, long positions increased by 750 hands, short positions increased by 582 hands [18][19][20]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [21]. Steam Coal - **Previous Day's Domestic Market**: ZC2506 had no trading, with an opening price of 931.6 yuan/ton, a high of 931.6 yuan/ton, a low of 840.0 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 840.0 yuan/ton, down 51.4 yuan/ton from the previous settlement price [22]. - **Fundamentals**: Southern port and domestic origin quotes of steam coal were given. On May 20, for ZC2506, long and short positions both decreased by 0 hands [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [24]. Logs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different contracts had different changes. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions were mostly stable [27]. - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to April 2025, China's real estate development investment decreased by 10.3% year - on - year [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish trend [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with a slight decline in Shandong and stability in Jiangsu. The supply from New Zealand is expected to reach 1.19 million cubic meters in May. The demand and inventory situation varies among ports, with overall de - stocking in the four major ports. The futures market is in a weak and volatile state with a weak supply - demand pattern [4][5][15] Summary by Directory 1. Overview - For the mainstream delivery product of 3.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine, the Shandong market quotes 770 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly from last week, and the Jiangsu market quotes 785 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from last week. The price of 3.9 - meter 40 + radiata pine in Shandong is 830 yuan/cubic meter, down slightly. The price of 5.9 - meter 30 + radiata pine in Shandong is 780 yuan/cubic meter, down 15 yuan/cubic meter from last week. European spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are in short supply [4] - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all going to the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival of 1.19 million cubic meters [4][7] - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 0.1547 million cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] - As of the week of May 12, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is 1373 points, up 112 points (+8.9%) from last week, and its related sub - index BHSI is 568 points, down 0.2% from last week. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1347.84 points, down 1.7% from last week. The US dollar index rebounds, with the US dollar - RMB exchange rate down 0.5% and the US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rate down 0.6% from last week [5][55] 2. Supply - As of May 4, there are 5 ships departing from New Zealand in May, all headed for the Chinese mainland, and about 5 are expected to arrive in May, with an expected arrival volume of 1.19 million cubic meters [7] - Details of New Zealand log shipping schedules are provided, including departure time, load capacity, current port, next port, and expected arrival time [8] 3. Demand and Inventory - As of the week of May 2, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port is 2.24 million cubic meters (week - on - week increase of 0.27 million cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port is 1.03 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 0.37 million cubic meters) [5][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1.2658 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 26,000 cubic meters, - 2.01%), Taicang Port is about 0.5515 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 80,700 cubic meters, - 12.76%), Xinminzhou is about 0.2746 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 47,700 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 0.2171 million cubic meters (week - on - week decrease of 300 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2.309 million cubic meters, with a slight de - stocking of 154,700 cubic meters compared to the previous week [5][12] 4. Market Trends - As of May 9, the closing price of the main contract LG2507 is 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.3% from last week. The futures market continues to be weak and volatile, and the fundamentals maintain a weak supply - demand pattern. The month - spread changes are small this week, with the 07 - 09 month - spread at - 14.5 yuan/cubic meter, the 07 - 11 month - spread at - 19.5 yuan/cubic meter, and the 09 - 11 month - spread at - 5 yuan/cubic meter [15] 5. Price and Spread - The spot price of logs and downstream construction timber shows different trends in different regions and specifications. Most prices remain stable compared to last week, with some showing slight decreases or increases over a four - week period [19][21] - The regional price differences between Shandong and Jiangsu for different tree species and specifications of logs are presented graphically [22][23][28] - The price differences between different tree species and specifications of logs are also presented graphically [40][42][44] 6. Other - The freight index and exchange rate data are provided. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), the Handysize Bulk Carrier Index (BHSI), the Crude Oil Tanker Index (BDTI) show different changes compared to last week and four weeks ago. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has a small change. The US dollar - RMB and US dollar - New Zealand dollar exchange rates also change [54][55]