Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the Fed's interest rate cut, commodities generally declined, and Zhengzhou cotton started to follow the logic of increased production. As the time for a large amount of new cotton to be listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on cotton prices is gradually weakening. Coupled with the downstream peak season falling short of expectations, Zhengzhou cotton has significantly declined this week [4]. - Recently, the operating loads of spinning mills and fabric mills have remained stable, and the finished - product inventories have slightly decreased. However, the marginal improvement in downstream demand is not obvious, and the peak season is under - performing. Domestic cotton production is increasing, and supply pressure is emerging. There is insufficient upward driving force for cotton prices, which may run weakly. Attention should be paid to the support around 13,500 yuan/ton. With holidays approaching and a large amount of seed cotton about to be listed, cautious operation is recommended [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Old - crop Commercial Inventory - As of mid - September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.176 million tons, a decrease of 306,000 tons compared to the end of August. Among them, the inventory in Xinjiang was 460,000 tons, and the inventory in the inland was 430,000 tons. It is roughly estimated that by the end of September, the domestic cotton commercial inventory may drop to about 900,000 - 1 million tons, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. However, new cotton will be concentratedly listed in October, and the domestic cotton commercial inventory will start to accumulate. Even if the commercial inventory in September is low, it will not substantially affect the cotton use of textile enterprises. As the time for new cotton to be concentratedly listed approaches, the supporting effect of tight old - crop inventory on near - month cotton prices is gradually weakening [5]. 2. Downstream Operating Load and Inventory - As of Thursday this week, the operating load indexes of downstream spinning mills and fabric mills were 50.3 and 52.5 respectively, remaining basically stable since the middle and late ten - day period. Their finished - product inventories were 25.8 days and 29 days respectively, continuing to reduce inventory, but the inventory reduction speed has slowed down compared to the previous period. Compared with the same period in previous years, the operating load index of spinning mills has risen slowly and is at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years. The growth rate of the operating load index of fabric mills has slowed down month - on - month and is currently equivalent to that of last year. The inventory reduction speed of finished products is the same as that of last year, but the absolute position is at the highest level in the same period in the past three years [6]. 3. US Cotton Export Sales - As of the week ending September 18, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 19,500 tons, a 54% decrease month - on - month, a 53% decrease compared to the four - week average, and a 19% decrease year - on - year. Among them, India signed 6,200 tons, and Turkey signed 5,100 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 31,100 tons, a 14% increase month - on - month, a 6% increase compared to the four - week average, and a 6% increase year - on - year. Among them, Vietnam shipped 9,500 tons, India 4,800 tons, and China 1,600 tons. The weekly export signing volume has declined again, with the overall signing performance being poor, and the progress is 16% slower than the five - year average, at the lowest level in the past five years. As of the week ending September 18, China had signed a total of 17,000 tons of US cotton for this year [6]. 4. Price Indexes and Price Changes - **Cotton and Yarn Futures and Spot Prices**: As of Thursday this week, the 328 cotton spot price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton. The C32S yarn price index was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the closing price of the Zhengzhou yarn main contract was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the basis between the two was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of [missing value] yuan/ton [34][35]. - **Imported Cotton and Yarn Prices**: From September 18 to September 25, the prices of imported cotton and yarn decreased. For example, the price of Indian C32S imported yarn decreased from 21,330 yuan/ton to 21,240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton [10]. - **Domestic and Foreign Price Differences**: As of Thursday this week, the price difference between the domestic 328 cotton price index and the imported cotton port delivery price index under the sliding - scale duty was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton; the price difference with the imported cotton port delivery price under the 1% tariff was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton. The price difference between the C32S yarn price index and the port delivery price was [missing value] yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of [missing value] yuan/ton [37]. - **Futures Spread and Processing Profit**: As of Thursday this week, on the futures market, the spread between the Zhengzhou yarn main contract and the Zhengzhou cotton main contract was 6,250 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week expansion of 250 yuan/ton; the immediate theoretical processing profit of 32 - count pure - cotton yarn was - 1,675 yuan/ton, and the loss amplitude increased by 105 yuan/ton week - on - week [39]. 5. Warehouse Receipts - As of Thursday this week, the sum of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595 sheets; the sum of Zhengzhou yarn warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 0 sheets [45].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, the hedging pressure is increasing. The main 01 contract faces significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include reduced previous China - US additional tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year, along with enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. Negative factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Previous Day Review (Weekly Review) - The main cotton contract 01 was under pressure at 14,000, oscillated downward, and hit a new short - term low. The national cotton output is expected to be 7.22 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. According to multiple reports, different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 cotton production, consumption, and ending inventory. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a 5% year - on - year decrease. China's cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase [5]. 3.2 Daily Tips - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is performing sluggishly. The textile and clothing export data in August was not ideal. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing the hedging pressure. The main 01 contract has significant resistance around 14,000 above, showing a short - term weak oscillation trend [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Reduced previous China - US additional tariffs, lower commercial inventory year - on - year, and enhanced expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season. - Negative factors: Ongoing trade negotiations, currently high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the impending large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - USDA's global cotton production forecast for 2025/26 is 25.622 million tons, consumption is 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory is 15.925 million tons. ICAC's 2025/26 global production forecast is 25.9 million tons, consumption is 25.6 million tons, and ending inventory is 17.1 million tons. The Ministry of Agriculture's 2025/26 production forecast is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [5][12][14][15]. 3.5 Position Data No position data is presented in the provided report.

Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton Futures Weekly Review - Date: September 20, 2025 - Researcher: Wang Zijian - Contact: 17803978037 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F03087965 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0019551 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Internationally, the Fed's 25bp rate cut met market expectations. The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap. The supply in the international cotton market is tightening, driving cotton prices to remain strong [4]. - Domestically, the domestic cotton market is in the critical period of new cotton harvesting, with the price center moving down. New cotton listing pressure is digesting the support effect of reduced old - cotton inventory, and domestic cotton prices will face seasonal downward pressure in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 International Market - **Supply - demand situation**: The 2025/26 global cotton market will have a 250,000 - ton supply - demand gap (production of 25.62 million tons/consumption of 25.87 million tons), with production decreasing by 340,000 tons year - on - year and consumption decreasing by 70,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil's cotton harvesting is over 60% and processing is 20%. US new cotton boll opening rate is 40%, 12 percentage points faster week - on - week but 4 percentage points lower than last year, and the picking progress is 8%, 1 percentage point higher than last year. In early September, US cotton export contracts decreased by 26,200 tons to 29,700 tons, and shipments decreased by 5,300 tons to 30,800 tons. Uzbekistan plans to boost the cotton textile industry through industrial subsidy policies [4]. - **US cotton data**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting area was 56.427 million mu, up 115,000 mu month - on - month; the harvest area was 44.729 million mu, up 79,000 mu month - on - month; the abandonment rate was 20.7%, with little change. The yield per unit was expected to be 64.3 kg/mu, slightly decreasing month - on - month; the production was expected to be 2.879 million tons, up 2,000 tons month - on - month. Consumption was expected to be 370,000 tons, and exports were expected to be 2.613 million tons, with no significant changes. The ending inventory remained at 784,000 tons [14]. - **US cotton growth progress**: As of September 14, the US cotton boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. The picking progress was 9%, 1 percentage point behind last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average. In the main producing area of Texas, the boll opening rate was 46%, the same as last year and 1 percentage point ahead of the five - year average; the picking progress was 21%, the same as last year and 4 percentage points ahead of the five - year average [16]. - **US drought situation**: As of September 9, the area of drought - affected regions in the US accounted for 35.9%, 1.2 percentage points higher than the previous week. About 32% of cotton - planting areas in the US were affected by drought, 2 percentage points higher than the previous week. In Texas, about 7% of cotton - planting areas were affected by drought, 4 percentage points higher than the previous week [19]. - **US cotton export**: As of September 11, 2025, the US had cumulatively signed net export contracts for 925,000 tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 35.40% of the annual expected exports, and had cumulatively shipped 188,000 tons, with a shipment rate of 20.27%. China had cumulatively signed contracts to import 17,000 tons of US cotton, accounting for 1.81% of the signed US cotton contracts, and had cumulatively shipped 363 tons, accounting for 0.19% of the total US cotton shipments and 2.17% of China's signed contracts [28]. 3.2 Domestic Market - **Supply situation**: The domestic cotton market is in the new cotton harvesting period. Xinjiang and other main producing areas' new cotton is in the boll - opening stage, and mechanical harvesting is expected to start next week. Mainstream institutions predict that the domestic cotton production in 2025 will exceed 7 million tons. As of September 11, the national new cotton picking progress was 0.3%, 0.1 percentage points higher than last year but 0.1 percentage points lower than the four - year average. The initial inventory decreased by 110,000 tons to 6.13 million tons. Due to the increase in cotton - planting area in Xinjiang and a slight increase in yield per unit, the national total production was increased by 520,000 tons to 7.42 million tons this month. The annual import volume remained at 1.4 million tons [5][26]. - **Demand situation**: The downstream demand is under pressure. The effect of textile industry's rush - to - export has faded, and overseas orders have shrunk. In August, textile and clothing exports were 26.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. From January to August, cumulative exports were 197.2 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.2%. The new - year textile production capacity in Xinjiang will increase steadily, and the overall textile cotton demand will remain high. The annual textile cotton consumption expectation was increased by 120,000 tons to 8.02 million tons this month, and other consumption and exports remained at 380,000 tons and 20,000 tons respectively [5][26]. - **Market structure**: The old - cotton inventory is continuously consumed, supporting high spot prices, but textile enterprises' purchasing willingness is low, resulting in a situation of high prices but few transactions in the spot market [5]. - **Spinning enterprises situation**: Small and medium - sized spinning enterprises maintain a low operating rate, and the market demand is difficult to support the recovery of the operating rate. Large and medium - sized spinning enterprises with stable customer groups have relatively stable orders and a high operating rate, but yarn prices are difficult to rise, and enterprises have difficulty in making profits, mainly selling at a loss. The operating rates of spinning mills in various regions are basically stable. Large spinning mills in Xinjiang operate at about 90%, large enterprises in Henan operate at an average of 60% - 70%, and large spinning mills in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, and Anhui along the Yangtze River operate at an average of 60% - 70% [30]. - **Commercial inventory**: As of August 2025, China's domestic cotton commercial inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 338,500 tons, and it was at a historically low level seasonally [32]. 3.3 USDA Data - **Global cotton supply - demand forecast**: In the 2025/26 global cotton supply - demand forecast, production increased month - on - month, consumption increased month - on - month, and import and export trade volumes both increased slightly. Due to the decrease in initial inventory, the ending inventory decreased again this year. In the 2024/25 supply - demand forecast, global cotton production and consumption increased, and the ending inventory decreased again because the increase in consumption was greater than that in production [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, with the upcoming seed - cotton purchase, the expected purchase price is 6.2 - 6.5 yuan/kg. The Zhengzhou cotton futures face significant hedging pressure above 14,000 yuan/ton, while there is insufficient motivation for hedging below 13,000 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" in consumption is lackluster, and the downstream profits are poor, so the cotton price is expected to turn weak. [53] - Internationally, the cotton price has risen and then fallen. The impact of the US dollar interest - rate cut is not positive. However, the expected 3 interest - rate cuts in the US in 2025 by mainstream institutions may boost the cotton market later. The USDA's monthly supply - demand report has little impact on the market. The US cotton export data has improved, and the consumption provides some support, so the cotton price is expected to fluctuate. [53] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis - **Futures Price Trends**: Zhengzhou cotton futures weakened this week with a weekly decline of 1.01%, while ICE cotton futures fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 0.03% [11] - **Spot Prices**: This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 62 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 70 yuan/ton [16] - **Cotton Imports**: In August, 70,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons [21] - **Cotton Inventory**: At the end of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.4817 million tons, a decrease of 338,500 tons compared with the first half of August [25] - **Downstream Inventory**: In August, the yarn inventory was 26.58 days, a year - on - year increase of 1.35 days, and the grey fabric inventory was 33.87 days, a year - on - year increase of 4.11 days [30] - **Yarn Prices**: This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S and C32S increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the price of JC40S increased by 60 yuan/ton [35] - **Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts**: This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 567, with 4438 warehouse receipts and 12 valid forecasts, totaling 4450 [41] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of September 11, the net sales of US upland cotton for the current year increased by 186,100 bales, and the net sales for the next year were 19,000 bales [44] - **US Weather**: The total area in drought (D1 - D4) in the US is 34.2%, with different drought levels covering different percentages of the country [50] 3.2后市展望 - Domestic cotton is expected to turn weak, while international cotton is expected to maintain a fluctuating trend, with attention to be paid to macro - level changes [53]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the cotton market and concludes that the short - term trend of cotton is oscillating weakly. The market is affected by multiple factors, including high inventory, poor export data, and upcoming new cotton listings, although there are some positive factors such as reduced tariffs and lower commercial inventory year - on - year [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No content is provided for this section. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: The expected national cotton output is 7.22 million tons, with a new high in Xinjiang. Different organizations' forecasts for the 2025/26 season vary. Textile and clothing exports in August were 26.54 billion US dollars, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, while棉纱 imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 15,319 yuan, with a basis of 1,554 yuan (for the 01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 2025/26 season by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture in September is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is one - third over, and the market is sluggish. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, increasing hedging pressure. The resistance level for the main 01 contract is around 14,000 yuan, and the short - term trend is oscillating weakly [4]. 3.3今日关注 No content is provided for this section. 3.4基本面数据 - **USDA Forecast**: The global cotton production in 2025/26 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, and consumption is 25.872 million tons, with an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons [4]. - **ICAC Forecast**: The global cotton production in 2025/26 is 2.59 million tons, consumption is 2.56 million tons, ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Forecast**: In the 2025/26 season, production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [4]. 3.5持仓数据 The main position is short - biased with an increasing net short position, and the main trend is unclear [4].

Core Viewpoint - Recent macro policy changes need attention, and short-term cotton prices may experience weak fluctuations due to the impact of a rising dollar and a sluggish grain market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - As of September 19, ICE cotton is operating weakly, influenced by the rise of the dollar and poor performance in the grain market [1] - Export reports indicate that the export situation for cotton is average, suggesting limited demand [1] Group 2: Domestic Production and Supply - In Xinjiang, there have been sporadic cotton picking activities, with expectations for machine harvesting in southern Xinjiang by the end of September [1] - The recovery of downstream textile enterprises is slow, indicating potential supply chain challenges [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The market is advised to closely monitor macro policy changes, as these could significantly impact cotton prices in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The China Cotton Association anticipates a total cotton production of 7.22 million tons for the 2025 season, representing an 8.3% year-on-year increase, with Xinjiang contributing 6.91 million tons, a 9.2% increase, marking a historical high [1] - The association has issued a set of recommendations for cotton purchasing enterprises to ensure smooth acquisition processes, including adjusting purchasing pace, maintaining market order, enhancing risk management, and improving quality standards [1] - Domestic cotton prices have been declining, with the China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex 3128B) averaging 15,308 yuan/ton, down 143 yuan/ton week-on-week, while Zhengzhou futures contract CF601 averaged 13,861 yuan/ton, down 163 yuan/ton [1] Group 2 - International cotton prices have shown a slight increase, with the Cotlook A Index averaging 77.8 cents/pound, up 0.1 cents/pound week-on-week, while the ICE cotton futures contract averaged 65.1 cents/pound, up 0.5 cents/pound [1] - In Xinjiang, cotton harvesting is in its peak stage, with a ginning rate nearing 50%, and initial selling prices ranging from 7.3 to 7.6 yuan/kg, primarily for testing purposes [2] - Weather conditions in Xinjiang are generally warm, with expected rainfall in the northern regions, necessitating flood prevention measures to protect cotton quality and yield [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The market is concerned about the situation of new cotton listing. The overall trading of domestic cotton spot is sluggish, with less inventory of high - quality lint. The pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions, and most of the spot sales basis is stable. The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years. The sales of all - cotton grey fabrics remain stable, with thick - type fabrics having better sales [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: CF2601 closed at 13,885 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.18%, and 13910 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.18%. CY2511 closed at 19,900 yuan/ton yesterday with a daily increase of 0.28%, and 20025 yuan/ton in the night session with a night - session increase of 0.63%. ICE US cotton 12 closed at 66.82 cents/pound yesterday with a daily increase of 0.09% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of CF2601 yesterday was 279,205 lots, an increase of 70,791 lots compared with the previous day, and the position was 693,565 lots, a decrease of 7,369 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 yesterday was 11,551 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the position was 21,140 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts yesterday was 4,899, a decrease of 118, and the effective forecast was 2, an increase of 2. The number of cotton yarn warehouse receipts was 89, a decrease of 1, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 90 [1]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,152 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan compared with the previous day, with a growth rate of 0.17%. The price of Southern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 14,845 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.17%. The price of cotton in Shandong remained unchanged at 15,282 yuan/ton. The price of cotton in Hebei was 15,215 yuan/ton, an increase of 7 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.05%. The 3128B index was 15,249 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan, with a growth rate of 0.01%. The international cotton index M was 74.43 cents/pound, an increase of 0.23% [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The CF1 - 5 spread was 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan compared with the previous day. The spread between Northern Xinjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF601 was 1,270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1]. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of cotton spot is sluggish. The inventory of high - quality lint is low, and the pre - sale of some new cotton has relatively good transactions. Most of the spot sales basis remains stable. The purchase price of seed cotton for wadding in Southern Xinjiang over the weekend has cooled down, and the current mainstream purchase price is around 7.4 - 7.45 yuan/kg, with cottonseed at 2.4 - 2.5 yuan/kg [2]. - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market is mediocre, weaker than the same period in previous years. Downstream enterprises mainly make rigid - demand purchases, and spinning enterprises negotiate real orders. Recently, with the decline of cotton prices, the cash flow of spinning enterprises has slightly improved. The sales of all - cotton grey fabrics remain stable, and the current market is mainly dominated by thick - type fabrics [2]. - **US Cotton Situation**: Yesterday, ICE cotton futures continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, with relatively light market news and trading [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the cotton industry is "oscillation", and the trading strategy suggests "wait - and - see" for both unilateral and arbitrage trading [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The old crop inventory shortage has been priced in, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced. Spinning capacity is in excess, and the high operating rate keeps the industrial demand for cotton firm. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, while the national industrial inventory remains at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating this week, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton has been stable. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, and inland spinning has a serious loss. The yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level. The current absolute price of cotton is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years. Domestically, the increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bearish. The old crop inventory shortage has been priced, and the new crop's weak reality of a bumper harvest is being priced [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. Excess spinning capacity and a high operating rate keep the industrial demand for cotton firm [3] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The national commercial inventory is being depleted rapidly, and the national industrial inventory remains at a high level [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the basis of Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, with the Xinjiang double - 28 spot basis at 1000 - 1200, and the 1 - 5 month spread of Zhengzhou cotton was stable [3] - **Profit**: Bearish. Xinjiang spinning has a slight loss, inland spinning has a serious loss, and the yarn - cotton price spread is running at a low level [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current absolute price is at a neutral - to - low level in the past four years [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Neutral. Domestically, increasing domestic demand policies are beneficial for the long - term demand of domestic cotton, while internationally, the Sino - US trade negotiation is in a short - term deadlock, and the extension of the tariff exemption period has a negative impact on sentiment [3] - **Investment View**: Oscillation. In the short term, the demand side performs averagely, and the supply side remains loose, so the market may oscillate within a range [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait - and - see; Arbitrage: Wait - and - see [3] 3.2 Cotton Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Upstream Planting - The cotton planting area is expected to increase. The national cotton planting area in the first survey of 2025 is 4159.9 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 1.88%, and the Xinjiang cotton planting area is 3678.8 million mu, with a year - on - year increase of 3.18% [8][9] - The cotton yield per mu in 2025 is estimated to be 149.9 kg nationwide and 158.5 kg in Xinjiang [10] 3.2.2 Mid - stream Inventory - The accumulation of finished product inventory has slowed down. Data on the raw material and finished product inventories of weaving and spinning mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [18][19][21] 3.2.3 Mid - stream Factory Load - The operating rate is declining. The operating rates of pure - cotton yarn mills and all - cotton grey fabric mills are presented in the form of time - series charts [25][26][27] 3.2.4 Mid - stream Spinning Mill Profit - Spinning mills are in the red. The immediate spinning profit and the yarn - cotton spot price spread are presented in the form of time - series charts [29][30][32] 3.2.5 Downstream Inventory - The downstream inventory is at a seasonal high. The inventories and finished product inventories of textile and clothing enterprises above the designated size are presented in the form of time - series charts [34][35][36] 3.2.6 Import and Export - Domestic cotton and cotton yarn import data are presented in the form of time - series charts. US cotton exports to different countries show different trends: exports to China and Pakistan are at a low level, exports to Vietnam have increased significantly year - on - year, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [39][41][50] 3.3 Cotton Capital - related Data 3.3.1 Zhengzhou Cotton Basis - The basis is oscillating at a high level. The basis of Zhengzhou cotton 09 and 01 contracts is presented in the form of time - series charts [63][64][65] 3.3.2 Zhengzhou Cotton Spread - The 09 - 01 and 01 - 05 spreads of Zhengzhou cotton are presented in the form of time - series charts [67] 3.3.3 Zhengzhou Cotton Position - The position of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The position data of the 09 and 01 contracts are presented in the form of time - series charts [69][70][72] 3.3.4 Zhengzhou Cotton Warehouse Receipt - The virtual - to - real ratio of the Zhengzhou cotton 09 contract is rapidly declining. The total number of warehouse receipts and forecasts and the virtual - to - real ratio of the 09 contract are presented in the form of time - series charts [74][75] 3.3.5 Management Fund's Net Long Position in US Cotton - The net long position, long - position proportion of management funds in US cotton futures and options are presented in the form of time - series charts [81][83][84] 3.3.6 US Cotton Month Spread - The US cotton 12 - 03 month spread shows a "Deep Contango" pattern, and relevant data are presented in the form of time - series charts [86][87]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market currently has a mix of bullish and bearish factors. New cotton will be in large supply, which exerts pressure on cotton prices. Although it has entered the traditional consumption peak season, downstream demand remains weak. On the other hand, the industrial chain inventory has dropped to a low level, and the domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, with seasonal restocking providing support at the bottom. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, with the range between 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level. Also, pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 01 Weekly Core Points and Strategies - **Supply**: USDA reduced the US cotton planting area by 8% to 9.3 million acres in August, and the harvested area by 15% to 7.4 million acres. The final US cotton production was reduced by 302,000 tons to 2.877 million tons compared to last month, with a neutral - to - bullish impact. China's new - season cotton production is at a historical low but was increased by 108,000 tons to 6.858 million tons, and there is still room for further increase [5]. - **Demand**: Domestic downstream consumption is sluggish. In the off - season, textile mills have weak inventory - building intentions. According to Steel Union data, the operating rate of textile mills increased slightly to 66.5% this week from 66% last week, and the weekly operating rate of weaving mills also increased slightly to 38% from 37.4% last week. The profit loss of spinning mills continued to narrow, with a profit of - 1,187 yuan/ton this week compared to - 1,352 yuan/ton last week [5]. - **Inventory**: BCO announced that the social cotton inventory at the end of July was 2.1898 million tons, a decrease of 640,000 tons from the end of June and a 21% year - on - year decline. The domestic commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low. According to Steel Union data, the national commercial inventory was 1.547 million tons this week. The raw material inventory of textile mills was 27.44 days this week compared to 27.5 days last week, and the yarn inventory of textile mills was 30.6 days this week compared to 31 days last week [5]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: As of September 12, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 5,017, with 0 valid forecasts. The total of warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 200,600 tons, compared to 233,100 tons on September 5 [5]. - **Basis**: According to Wind data, as of September 12, the spot price of Xinjiang cotton was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the main CF2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton. According to Mysteel data, as of September 11, the arrival price of US cotton M1 - 1/8 was lowered to 16,940 yuan/ton. The price of domestic 3128B lint cotton fluctuated and adjusted, with a quotation of 15,220 yuan/ton. The price difference between domestic and foreign cotton shrank to 1,720 yuan/ton [5]. - **Cost**: The overall average cost of ginning mills this year, converted to the official standard, is 14,700 - 14,800 yuan/ton. In the new season, with some ginning capacity in northern Xinjiang exiting and the overall demand outlook not optimistic, the opening purchase price is not expected to be high. According to market feedback this week, the purchase of hand - picked cotton has started in southern Xinjiang, and the price of seed cotton has risen rapidly from the initial 7.3 - 7.4 yuan/kg to 7.6 - 7.7 yuan/kg [5]. - **Macro**: The market is considering whether China will introduce more stimulus policies in the fourth quarter. The US employment market is weak. The non - farm employment number was revised down by 911,000 from March last year, an average monthly reduction of nearly 76,000. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, the highest in nearly four years. The overall CPI monthly rate is 0.382%, and the core CPI monthly rate is 0.346%. The market has priced in three interest rate cuts by the Fed this year [5]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 11 - 1 reverse spread opportunity. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 13,800 - 14,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to wait and see for single - side trading and buy far - month contracts after the market drops to an appropriate level [5]. 02 Weekly Data Charts - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2020/21 to 2025/26 (August), the initial inventory, production, import, total supply, export, consumption, total consumption, and ending inventory all show different trends. The inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased from 58.54% to 62.65% [9]. - **Production by Major Producing Countries**: The production of major cotton - producing countries such as China, the US, and India shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. In 2025/26, China's production is 6.858 million tons, the US is 2.877 million tons, and India is 5.117 million tons [10]. - **Demand Changes in Major Producing Countries**: The consumption of major cotton - consuming countries such as China, India, and Pakistan also shows different trends from 2020/21 to 2025/26. In 2025/26, China's consumption is 8.165 million tons, India is 5.443 million tons, and Pakistan is 2.373 million tons [11]. - **US Inventory Cycle**: The US overall inventory cycle is transitioning from passive destocking to active restocking. The inventory of US clothing wholesalers and retailers is transitioning from three - year destocking to moderate active restocking. However, due to the Geneva Economic and Trade Talks Joint Statement and tariff relief, the continuous restocking behavior has been weakened to some extent [17]. - **Domestic New - Season Situation**: The new - season planting area and production are expected to maintain a supply - abundant pattern. The national area and production, as well as Xinjiang's area and production, show different trends in the surveys from February to June [21][22]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: China's commercial cotton inventory is being depleted rapidly. The operating rates of textile and weaving mills show slight increases, and the inventory of textile and weaving mills also shows certain changes [42].