Domestic News - The Chinese government aims to improve water efficiency, with the water consumption per ten thousand GDP decreasing by 4.4% in 2024 compared to 2023 [1] - The Ministry of Water Resources reported a slight increase in total water consumption nationwide, while unconventional water supply continues to rise, optimizing the water source structure [1] - The State Council is advancing legislative work for 2025, focusing on various financial regulations and management guidelines [2] - China has established the world's largest internet-based electricity service system, with over 400 million registered users and an online processing rate exceeding 97% [2] - In the first five months of this year, China approved 468 new national standard substances, marking a 65.9% year-on-year increase [2] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported a warehouse index of 50.5% for May, indicating stable growth in the warehousing sector [3] - Chongqing has released a list of 42 low-altitude economic application scenarios and 40 capability lists, focusing on modern urban governance and low-altitude logistics [3] - Zhengzhou is enhancing consumer subsidies in key sectors like automobiles and home appliances, launching a gold and jewelry consumption subsidy program [3] International News - Emerging markets have seen record inflows of funds into stocks and bonds over the past eight weeks, with nearly $95 billion in cash inflows in the latest week [5] - The Bank of Thailand has revised its inflation forecast for the year to a range of 0.0% to 1.0% [5] - The Reserve Bank of India unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50 basis points, marking the third consecutive rate cut, with a total reduction of 100 basis points since 2025 [5] - The Swiss National Bank stated it does not aim to prevent trade balance adjustments or gain unfair competitive advantages for the Swiss economy [5]

显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 20 期） 频率：每周 目前看，5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定，需求方面出口和消费相对较好，房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market started June on a negative note, with the Hang Seng Index dropping to 23,157.97 points, down 0.57% or 131.8 points, with a total turnover of HKD 145.245 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell over 3% at one point but later narrowed its losses, closing down 0.7% at 5,134.11 points [1] - The market has shown signs of recovery after the "reciprocal tariffs" impact, with a significant decline in risk premiums being a key driver [1] Blue Chip Performance - Sands China (01928) led blue-chip gains, rising 4.28% to HKD 16.08, contributing 2.69 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Macau's gaming revenue for May reached MOP 21.193 billion, a 5% year-on-year increase, with total revenue for the first five months at MOP 97.707 billion, up 1.7% [2][5] - Other notable blue-chip movements included Chow Tai Fook (01929) up 3.22% and Galaxy Entertainment (00027) up 1.8%, while CSPC Pharmaceutical (01093) fell 4.81% [2] Sector Highlights Stablecoin Sector - The stablecoin sector surged following the enactment of the Stablecoin Ordinance in Hong Kong, with LianLian Digital (02598) rising 64.27% and Yike (09923) up 39.87% [3][4] - The ordinance aims to enhance the regulatory framework for digital asset activities in Hong Kong, with compliant stablecoins expected to launch by the end of the year [4] Gaming Sector - The gaming sector saw most stocks rise, with Sands China and Wynn Macau (01128) also posting gains [5] - Citigroup forecasts a 5% year-on-year increase in gaming revenue for June, estimating daily revenue at approximately MOP 6.17 billion [5] Gold Sector - Gold stocks performed well, with Tongguan Gold (00340) up 18.23% and other gold-related stocks also seeing gains due to rising gold prices amid geopolitical tensions [6] - Spot gold prices reached USD 3,350 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 2% increase [6] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector faced challenges, with major developers like Agile Group (03383) and R&F Properties (02777) experiencing significant declines [7] - The top 100 real estate companies in China reported a 10.8% year-on-year drop in sales for the first five months of 2025 [7] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector is under pressure due to a new wave of price wars, with companies like GAC Group (02238) and Li Auto (02015) seeing declines [8] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has expressed opposition to "cutthroat" competition in the automotive industry [8] Notable Stock Movements - Mixue Group (02097) reached a new high, closing up 7.54% at HKD 584.5, with an upgraded target price reflecting strong sales growth [9] - Alibaba Pictures (01060) rose 7.41% after announcing a name change to Damai Entertainment, indicating a strategic shift towards live events [10] - Leap Motor (09863) reported a 148% year-on-year increase in May deliveries, prompting an upgrade in sales forecasts [11] - CSPC Pharmaceutical (02005) fell 5.46% after reporting a significant drop in revenue and profit for Q1 2025 [12]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]

Economic Performance - In the first four months, Dalian's industrial production accelerated, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 11.9% year-on-year, up 1.0 percentage points from January to March [1] - High-tech manufacturing added value grew by 21.1%, maintaining double-digit growth for 24 consecutive months [1] - The added value of state-owned enterprises increased by 18.9%, while private enterprises grew by 7.4% [1] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment in Dalian rose by 3.4% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment increasing by 5.3% and infrastructure investment surging by 29.2% [2] - High-tech industry investment saw a significant rise of 23.4%, with high-tech manufacturing investment skyrocketing by 225.7% [3] - The number of industrial technology transformation projects reached 220, up 12.2% year-on-year, with completed investment increasing by 107.5% [3] Consumer Market - Retail sales in Dalian reached 31.14 billion yuan, marking an 18.5% year-on-year increase [3] - Significant growth was observed in categories such as building materials (2670.9%), furniture (779.1%), and home appliances (495.5%) [3] - Online retail sales through public networks surged by 215.0% year-on-year [3] Service Sector Performance - The total turnover of road, waterway, and air transport increased by 1.8%, -3.9%, and 6.4% respectively [2] - The postal business volume grew by 20.5%, while telecommunications business volume rose by 11.6% [2] - Revenue from various service sectors, including culture, sports, and entertainment, saw significant increases, with a 15.0% rise [2] Price Trends - Consumer prices in Dalian decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, with consumer goods prices down by 0.9% [4] - The price of food and tobacco fell by 1.8%, while clothing prices increased by 0.7% [4] - The total electricity consumption reached 16.67 billion kWh, up 2.1% year-on-year [4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current trends and developments in various industries, particularly focusing on the impact of AI technology, market dynamics in the home appliance sector, and the challenges faced by companies in adapting to these changes. Industry Environment - The Japanese animation industry is increasingly adopting AI technology, which lowers creative barriers and enhances efficiency, with tools like Vidu gaining global attention. AI applications can reduce production costs by 30%-50% for 2D animations, presenting new opportunities for domestic animation development [2] - In the automotive sector, 60% of CEOs view generative AI as a competitive advantage, yet 65% are concerned about industry disruption. The shift towards smart connected vehicles is expected to exceed 80% by 2030, with generative AI helping companies reduce costs and improve competitiveness [3] - AI and large models are projected to be key for enterprise transformation by 2025, with an average return on investment realized in 13 months. By 2030, AI is expected to contribute $15.7 trillion to the global economy, with a 26.1% increase in China's GDP [5] - China has become the largest holder of AI patents globally, accounting for 60% of the total, indicating strong momentum in the AI sector and a commitment to enhancing intellectual property protections [6] Home Appliance Industry - The home appliance industry in China experienced significant growth in Q1 2025, driven by government subsidies and corporate transformations. Major companies reported double-digit growth in revenue and net profit, with a focus on high-end and efficient products. However, export challenges remain due to tariff barriers [8] - The digital transformation in light industry aims for comprehensive digitization by 2030, with significant advancements in green and intelligent upgrades. The home appliance sector is leading in smart manufacturing, with companies like Haier and Midea recognized for their innovative practices [11] Company Dynamics - Tencent showcased its "full-stack AI" capabilities at the 2025 Shanghai Auto Show, positioning itself as an enabler of automotive intelligence, while facing challenges from self-research trends among car manufacturers [14] - Midea is set to commercialize humanoid robots, with applications in factory operations and retail by the end of 2024, reflecting a significant investment in robotics and AI technology [19] - Cambricon, a leading Chinese AI chip company, reported a Q1 2024 revenue of 1.111 billion yuan, marking a 42-fold year-on-year increase, driven by demand for large models and domestic substitution opportunities [20][21] - Kunlun Wanwei's "All in AI" strategy led to a significant net loss of 1.595 billion yuan in 2024, highlighting the challenges of high R&D costs and competitive pressures in the AI commercialization landscape [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The utilization of long-term special government bond funds is driving the implementation of the "Two New" policy, which is crucial for expanding consumption, stabilizing investment, promoting transformation, and improving people's livelihoods [1][2][3] Group 1: Consumption Enhancement - In April, retail sales of home appliances, cultural office supplies, furniture, and communication equipment increased by 38.8%, 33.5%, 26.9%, and 19.9% year-on-year respectively, with the renovation season and replacement subsidies contributing to a 9.7% growth in building and decoration materials retail sales [1] - The sales of five major product categories, including automobiles and home appliances, reached approximately 830 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Investment Growth - From January to April, investment in equipment and tools increased by 18.2% year-on-year, contributing 64.5% to overall investment growth [1] - Investment in sectors closely related to the "Two New" policy, such as computer and office equipment manufacturing, consumer goods manufacturing, and equipment manufacturing, saw increases of 28.9%, 13.4%, and 8.2% respectively [1] Group 3: Transformation and Upgrading - The demand for green, intelligent, and high-quality products is driving production efficiency improvements, with high-tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing value-added increasing by 10.0% year-on-year in April [2] - Retail sales of new energy vehicles reached 905,000 units, growing by 33.9%, with a penetration rate of 51.5%, up 7 percentage points year-on-year [2] Group 4: Social Welfare Improvement - The trade-in program for consumer goods has effectively met residents' demand for high-quality living, with over 3 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies and more than 55 million units of 12 categories of home appliances traded in [2] Group 5: Future Actions - The National Development and Reform Commission plans to accelerate fund allocation and improve fund utilization efficiency, including implementing loan interest subsidies for equipment updates and simplifying subsidy application processes [3] - There will be a focus on policy reserves and timely evaluation of progress in the "Two New" areas to ensure effective implementation [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalating trade tensions between the United States and the European Union, highlighting President Trump's criticisms of the EU's trade practices and the ongoing negotiations aimed at resolving these issues [1][2][5]. Trade Negotiations - The U.S. and EU have initiated trade negotiations, with the EU proposing a framework that includes investments in liquefied natural gas and artificial intelligence, as well as cooperation in strategic sectors like steel, automotive, and pharmaceuticals [4][5]. - The EU's trade commissioner emphasized the need for a solution through negotiations while preparing for potential countermeasures if talks fail [5][10]. Trade Imbalances - In 2024, approximately 750,000 cars were exported from the EU to the U.S., while only 170,000 cars were exported from the U.S. to the EU, indicating a significant trade imbalance [2]. - The total trade volume between the U.S. and EU was nearly $1 trillion last year, underscoring the economic significance of their relationship [6]. EU's Countermeasures - The EU has prepared a list of products worth €95 billion for potential tariffs in response to U.S. tariffs, which includes various industrial and agricultural goods [11][12]. - The EU is considering using all available trade defense measures, including a new tool that allows for counter-sanctions against economic coercion [13]. Digital Services Tax - The EU may impose tariffs on U.S. digital services, particularly targeting advertising revenues, which could significantly impact U.S. tech companies that rely heavily on the European market [14][15]. - The implementation of a digital services tax faces challenges due to differing interests among EU member states, complicating the potential for a unified approach [15].

每经编辑｜杜宇 当地时间5月8日，美股三大指数集体收涨。纳指涨1.07%，道指涨0.62%，标普500指数涨0.58%。 大型科技股普涨，英特尔涨超3%，亚马逊、谷歌、微软涨超1%，英伟达、Meta小幅上涨；奈飞跌约1%。ARM跌超6%，公司业绩指引逊于预期。诺瓦瓦 克斯医药涨约12%，公司发布高于预期的2025财年销售指导。QBTS涨超51%，创2023年5月份以来最佳单日表现，并领跑一众量子计算概念股。 特斯拉涨3.11%，报284.82美元，市值9173.9亿美元，市值一夜增加277亿美元（约合人民币2004亿元人民币）。 Pinterest美股盘后涨超11%。公司一季度营收8.55亿美元，分析师预期8.463亿美元。公司预计二季度营收9.6亿美元~9.8亿美元，分析师预期9.637亿美元。 纳斯达克中国金龙指数收涨0.97%。 热门中概股多数上涨。理想汽车、蔚来涨逾3%，小鹏汽车、阿里巴巴涨超2%，富途控股、向上融科涨近2%。 当天晚些时候，英国政府发布官方声明，称英国汽车出口至美国的关税将从27.5%降至10%，钢铁和铝关税从25%降至零。这一关税优惠将适用于10万辆 英国汽车，几乎覆盖去年英国对美 ...

Group 1 - Germany's industrial output increased by 3% month-on-month in March, marking the highest quarterly growth since early 2022 with a 1.4% increase in Q1 [1] - The construction sector saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1%, while the energy sector experienced a decline of 1.8% [1] - Excluding construction and energy, industrial output rose by 3.6% in March, with significant contributions from the automotive industry (8.1% growth), pharmaceuticals (19.6% growth), and machinery manufacturing (4.4% growth) [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, Germany's industrial output decreased by 0.2% in March after adjusting for working days [2]